Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
I've been going to the gym later than usual. Path to the Draft comes on at 6 on weekdays, so after about a billion annoying in-show tweets (@walterfootball), I head over to work out.
I've noticed that there are no fat women at the pool in the evening. In the two weeks since I started going at night, I've seen only one fat woman. It was on Thursday. I was in the middle of my mile, when this obese lady in her 40s plopped into the lane next to mine. Maybe I was just imagining things, but I'm pretty sure this fat woman winked at me several times. I guess she either wanted to have sex with me or put ketchup on me. To be honest, I'm not sure which one I would have preferred.
I don't know where all the fat women go at night, but I guess it's a popular feeding time. Unfortunately, the pool's not empty; instead of blubbery whales, there are annoying kids who take swim lessons.
The good part about this is the various MILFs that hang around. Since most of these kids are Russian, there are usually a couple of stunning Russian women who show up wearing mink coats and tons of gold jewelry. You know, casual gym attire.
The bad part about the swim lessons is that these kids cause too much of a raucous in the locker room. For instance, I was getting dressed on Tuesday when about eight kids ran in. Five of them were yelling and screaming about stupid things like teachers getting punched in the face with Xboxes. The other three were dorks who had a very nerdy conversation that I was able to overhear:
Fat Kid: Ruslan, I might go to the Phillies game on Thursday.
Ruslan: I don't like baseball, it is boring.
Skinny Kid: I do not like baseball, basketball, football or hockey.
Fat Kid: Me neither, but I like hockey because of the fights.
Ruslan: Fights are stupid.
Skinny Kid: I like to watch FIFA.
Fat Kid: FIFA is awesome!
Nerds! Who the hell likes FIFA in America? I never thought I'd hear the words "FIFA" and "awesome" in the same sentence, except for perhaps: "I was able to avoid watching a FIFA game because someone gave me the awesome idea of committing suicide to avoid it."
I tuned out these losers until Ruslan took out his iPod and began blasting a rap song, Look at Me Now by Chris Brown, Lil Wayne and Busta Rhymes.
For those unfamiliar with this song, one of the "musicians" at the beginning of the song says, "I don't see how you can hate from outside of the club. You can't even get in HAHAHAA." This sparked yet another conversation:
Fat Kid: I can't wait to go to the club.
Ruslan: My brother told me the club is very cool and there are lots of girls there.
Skinny Kid: Girls!?!?!?!?!?!
Ruslan: My brother goes all the time to the clubs.
Fat Kid: I hope we can get into the clubs when we are old enough to go.
Skinny Kid: I can't wait to see all the girls when we go to the clubs!!!!!!!!!
Skinny Kid was about to splooge all over the locker room benches, so I figured it was time to leave. As I was driving home, something weird happened. I wanted to pull into my local Wawa, but couldn't because these three people were taking their time crossing the parking lot. One was fat, one was skinny and one was tall, like Ruslan. They all had weird piercings, dyed black hair and random tattoos.
I saw them walk into the Wawa. I parked my car, and followed them inside. As I was entering my order into the Wawa computer, I overheard their conversation:
Ruslan Look-alike: I can't believe the bar was closed.
Fat Guy: Yeah. Let's go home and play FIFA on Xbox 360.
Skinny Guy: Guys, that girl making the food is very hot!!!!!!!
Skinny Guy was about to splooge all over the counter, so I was fortunate enough to finish placing my order. After they left, the chick they were talking about went up to the other worker:
Hot Chick: What a bunch of weirdoes. I thought we were going to have to call the cops.
Other Worker: Well, at least they didn't steal anything.
That's always a plus. Nevertheless, I was pretty taken aback from what I witnessed. Did those swim lesson douche bags somehow age 10 years in a span of 30 minutes? Or did I travel through time?
I'm not really sure - but if I had to guess, this was all just a dream I had while lodged in that fat woman's stomach. That would explain why I have ketchup all over me.
JERK OF THE WEEK NO. 2: Russian Yoda
In addition to seeing hot MILFs, another good thing about going to my gym at night is bumping into Russian Yoda.
I wrote about Russian Yoda eight months ago. He's a nice, elderly Russian dude who looks and talks like Yoda. If you don't want to click on the link, some of his awesome quotes are:
"A day wizout laugh iz a day wizout money, I remember."
"Best time to swim at night, eight o'clock, agree you?"
"You will be design."
I spotted Russian Yoda in the locker room after a workout. A very confusing conversation ensued:
Russian Yoda: Good evening, sir! I in the gym have not seen you in very long time!
Me: Yeah, I've been coming in the afternoon.
Russian Yoda: Ah, I remember. I see you on Tuezday in your auto driving.
Me: Really? Where?
Russian Yoda: Uhh... Boostleton Avenoo and Cottman, driving I see you.
Me: That definitely wasn't me. I haven't been down there in a while.
Russian Yoda: Ah yes, Boostleton and Cottman, your auto driving I see you.
Me: I really don't think so.
Russian Yoda: Ah yes, in your auto I see you, but ozer vay I go.
I gave up. I definitely wasn't at Bustleton and Cottman on "Tuezday" or any other day, but I wasn't going to argue with this guy. I just continued the conversation.
Me: When did you see me?
Russian Yoda: Vhen!?
Me: Yeah, what time?
Russian Yoda: Ah, yes... vhen... uhh... uhh...
*** 20-second pause. ***
Russian Yoda: I see you drive auto when uhh... the sun shine in zee sky.
Oh, OK. That narrows it down just a bit.
I love this, actually. I think more of us should use vague timeframes like this. "When will you be here, cable guy? Oh, when the sun is shining in the sky? OK, that's fine." Or, "When is my court date? On April 18 when the sun is shining in the sky? Cool. I have to run a few errands, but I'll show up before the sun sets."
At any rate, the conversation continued when Russian Yoda saw me put on a Puma t-shirt...
Russian Yoda: Ah, Puma!
Russian Yoda: My daughter have three Puma pieces.
Three Puma pieces? What the hell does that mean? Does she have three articles of Puma clothing, or three pieces of one Puma article of clothing? And how do you know how many Puma "pieces" she has, and why are you keeping track?
Before I could ask him this, Russian Yoda said goodbye.
Russian Yoda: I go into sauwna. Good luck to you sir.
Me: Umm... good luck to you too?
I don't know why he said good luck to me, or why I reciprocated it; I'm sure Russian Yoda won't need any good luck when he's counting his daughter's Puma pieces. Fortunately, I know I can ask him about it the next time I'm at the gym when the moon shines in the sky.
JERK OF THE WEEK NO. 3: Lilliput
If I'm going to talk about Russian Yoda again, why not bring back another old favorite?
I discussed Lilliput six months ago. He's a strange Russian immigrant who works for my dad. If you don't want to click the link, Lilliput is a very short, chubby guy in his 50s. His eyes bulge out of his head, and he looks like a creeper. Despite this, he's married to two women (in different countries). He's also a degenerate gambler with no money, and the biggest bulls***ter you'll ever meet.
I have two reasons for making Lilliput a Jerk of the Week again. First, he apparently has a new girlfriend. I'm not sure what his wives think about that, but this girl is from Latvia. He met her on a dating Web site. He's never actually seen her in person, but refers to her as his girlfriend. No word if she asked him for his bank account so she can send some of her royal king father's money to America.
And second, my dad recently told me about a conversation he had with Lilliput, and I thought it was Jerks of the Week-worthy. They were discussing the weather, and how it's been unusually cold here in Philly the past couple of months. My dad decided to tease Lilliput about Al Gore (global warming), since Lilliput collects his fair share of welfare checks.
At any rate, here's the conversation:
Lilliput: Vhy iz eet so cold!?
Dad: I don't know. I thought we were supposed to have global warming.
Lilliput: Vhat iz zis?
Dad: You haven't heard of global warming?
Dad: I'm surprised. Your friend Al Gore invented it.
Lilliput: I don't know who iz Al Gore?
Dad: Really? He's your friend.
Lilliput: I do not know zis guy.
Dad: Sure you do.
Lilliput: Uhh... oh, he iz friends with Alex?
Dad: Yes. Al Gore is friends with your drinking buddy, Alex.
Lilliput: Ah, OK, I know heem.
Think Lilliput is a bit confused? You haven't seen anything yet.
Lilliput: I have geerlfriend in Latvia.
Dad: Really? Where did you meet her?
Lilliput: On dating Veb saight.
Dad: Have you ever seen her in person?
Dad: And she's your girlfriend?
Dad: And you don't see anything wrong with this?
Lilliput: No, she iz pretty wooman. I see picture!
Dad: Do you even know where Latvia is?
Lilliput: Uhh... uhh...
Dad: I guess not.
Lilliput: No, I know. Latvia iz near Atlantic Ocean!
Latvia is near the Atlantic Ocean, eh? Let's check out a European map to see how close Lilliput was:
Darn it. Just a tad off.
Now, let's check out what Lilliput thinks Europe looks like:
It's a good thing Lilliput is poor and can't avoid to buy his own jet; otherwise, he'd crash into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean looking for the island of Latvia.