Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
JERK OF THE WEEK NO. 1: Jimmy Carter and Racism Accusers
Credit forum member Wraith for pointing this out to me. I make it an effort to avoid watching political news for a number of reasons (one of which being the fact that there is no unbiased media outlet), so I was unaware of Carter's remarks.
If you're just as ignorant as I am - and good for you if you are - Carter accused some fellow named Joe Wilson of being racist against Barack Obama because Wilson yelled "You lie!" during an Obama speech regarding illegal aliens (from this planet) and how the new health system will affect them.
If accusing this Joe Wilson person of being racist wasn't enough, Carter said that Wilson's outburst was part of a trend directed at Obama that has demonstrators equating Obama to Nazi leaders.
Carter isn't the first person to declare Obama detractors of being racist. There have been others, like Janeane Garofalo, but no one took her seriously because she's an idiot who tried her hardest to ruin Season 7 of 24.
Whether you like Obama and his policies or not, you have to admit that these a**holes who accuse people of being racist for opposing him have to be silenced.
Of course there are racists out there (and some of those racists support Obama as well), but 99 percent the people who oppose Obama don't hate his policies because he's black; they hate his policies because they think that they are short-sighted, naive and myopic. Conversely, the people who like Obama's policies aren't in favor of them because he's black; they like them because they think the policies can fix our economy.
I would actually prefer to be racist than to be one of these racism-accusing douche bags. These people (oh no, I said "these people" - I must be racist) obviously don't listen to logic. They hear someone trashing Obama's policies and automatically assume that person is racist. They're so closed-minded that they don't even listen to what that person is saying or even think for a minute that they themselves could be wrong. Instead, they play the racist card and embarrass themselves. By the way, why did no one accuse the Bush bashers of being racist? Because he's white? Pssh, like that's a legitimate reason.
I think as an American society we're way too uptight about racism. If someone makes the slightest stereotype, they are accused of being racist and are shunned by everyone. For example, a few years ago, Junior Seau told the media that he planned on slowing down superstar Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson by giving him fried chicken and watermelon. I thought that was hilarious. The media, meanwhile, bashed Seau for citing racist remarks.
America would be a better place if we took that stuff more lightly. I don't see anything wrong with being accused of liking fried chicken and watermelon. In fact, I love fried chicken and watermelon. If I could eat fried chicken and watermelon three times a day for the rest of my life, I'd die a happy man (at the age of 35 most likely). If someone came up to me and said, "Your white skin tells me that you like fried chicken and watermelon," I would reply, "Why thank you! I do indeed love fried chicken and watermelon."
And if someone came up to me and said, "Your white skin tells me that you are unathletic and lack rhythm?" I'd respond, "Yeah, that's pretty accurate."
Adam Carolla said it best on his podcast: "People wouldn't say stereotypes if they weren't true. You don't hear people going around and saying, ?Black people suck at basketball' or ?Asians suck at math.' They are stereotypes for a reason."
If we as a society became less anal about these silly things and saw everything as a joke, there would be less racism and hatred going around. Unfortunately, douche bags like Carter and Garofalo deny us this because they want nothing more than for people to feel bad about themselves.
Instead of putting together a logical argument or trying to convince Obama opposers why the president's policies will work, these morons take the easy way out and just accuse everyone of being racist.
As I said before, I'd rather be racist than that closed-minded any day.
JERK OF THE WEEK NO. 2: Dumb Parents
Speaking of being anal, NBC is reporting that droves of parents are complaining to the NFL about "racy" ads that are appearing Sunday afternoons. These parents are furious that Cialis, Viagra and beer ads are corrupting their children.
Because I obviously know all of the answers, I'd like to chime in on this.
These parents are uptight a**holes, and if I ever become like them when I have kids, I'm going to drown myself in a pool or electrocute myself with jumper cables. Like the racism accusers, these dumb parents need to be silenced.
If you don't want your kids to find out about beer or sex, you're living in a fantasy world. It's not like some 12-year-old isn't going to know about sex, drugs and alcohol anyway; someone in their school yard or classroom will tell them about it. Are you going to pull your kids out of school too? Why don't you actually do your job as a parent and actually teach them about this stuff?
I'll never forget the first time I was introduced to porn. I was 11 and went to my friend Mike's birthday party. It was a sleepover (Eric Mangini was not invited), so after Mike's parents went to bed, he put on the porn channel for all of us. The porno we watched was Star Trek: The Making of the Next Generation. Now that I just reminded myself of it, I'll have to add that one to my extensive library.
The point is that kids are always going to try stuff that's taboo. We all heard that "sex is bad," but we wanted to see what it was all about. That's why cool teenagers drink beer in the woods or by the railroad tracks. That's why a lot of them start smoking cigarettes and/or weed. The same parents who want to banish the Cialis and Bud Light ads from our television sets are the same ones who didn't sit down and talk to their kids about why this stuff is bad. And when the kids find out about it from other sources, they're almost always worse off.
So, what's my solution? First, I'd tell these idiot parents to f*** off. Second, I'd have commercials advertising everything, from beer, to cigarettes, to weed, to porn. I'd also have naked women doing the advertising for my enjoyment. And finally, I'd send all racism accusers and uptight parents to prison.
I actually don't know what any of this would solve. I would just get a kick out of doing it.
JERK OF THE WEEK NO. 3: Me (Misguided Discriminator)
If you've been reading my Jerks of the Week, you're aware that I tend to discriminate against fat people. My defense has always been that I'm actually doing a good thing - fat people will read my harsh remarks and then go on a diet to make themselves feel better.
If one person has gone on a diet because of my rants, then I've done my job. They've improved their lifestyle and will live longer. In a sense, I'm pretty much a hero. But I've never asked for any sort of recognition; I'm simply out to do good. Walt's my name and philanthropy's my game.
However, Matt McGuire sent me an e-mail concerning my hatred toward fat people. It really changed my mind about my stance. Take a look:
Did you consider that the Subway guy was ordering food for other people at home? Maybe he had a family?
I think you should nominate yourself for Jerk of the Week: You own stock in people being fat (McDonald's) and then you hate fat people. That's the definition of hypocrisy. Being hypocritical is worse than being fat.
Naw. Fat people would trade their fat for hypocrisy any day. But still, stop being a hater when you have stock in McDonald's.
Also, if you think about it, you are trying to make people healthier by criticizing fat people. I hope the readers of your site stop going to fast food restaurants and you single-handedly drive down your own stock price and lose bazillions (or $2,218.79) of dollars.
"McDonald's and Yum Foods stock has dropped down over 97% in the last two fiscal years. This can all be traced to the Web site WALTERFOOTBALL.COM where stockholder Walter Cherepinsky made fun of fat people so much that the fat football fans that visited his site, including Cincinnati backup offensive guard Andre Smith, stopped buying fast food and getting fat.
"Mr. Cherepinsky, do you have any comment in regards to single-handedly killing the fast food industry and your own financial wealth?"
"Debacled. That is all."
"But Mr. Cherepinsky! Blah blah blah asking reporter questions"
"No further comment."
I applaud you for making fun of fat people to try to help obesity in America. I think you are a moron by making fun of fat people on your Web site and at the same time own stock in cheeseburgers and fries. What gives?
What gives? Debacled, that is all.
My excellent philanthropy work has come back to haunt me. I've been helping fat people for almost 10 years, and all I've been doing is bankrupting myself.
That'll show me to care about fat people. From now on, no more! I will love all fat people so that they feel good about themselves and go to McDonald's. I will raise McDonald's stock price to a billion dollars a share, so my 2.5 shares will be worth 2.5 billion dollars! Muhahahaa!
(All of this is assuming I can resist making fun of fat people. I give myself three days before I make another fat joke.)