NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 12

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Nov. 17, 2025

NFL Overrated Teams:

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were the hipster pick of 2025. Everyone loves what they did versus the Chiefs, Eagles, and Buccaneers (first matchup) late last year. And yet, they lost those games, even though the Chiefs, Eagles and Buccaneers didn’t put forth any sort of effort into those contests. When the Panthers battled teams focused against them, they were obliterated by the Cowboys and Buccaneers (second matchup). Bryce Young still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, while the defense could still be a bottom-five unit.

The Panthers lost a “close” game to the Cardinals, but were down 27-3. This would have been a blowout had the Cardinals not fallen asleep at the wheel again. In the other games, the Panthers were demolished by the Jaguars and caught the Falcons completely unprepared to play off a big win on national TV. They got back to their real, losing ways against the Patriots. They beat the Dolphins, but we know how much Miami sucks. They also defeated the Cowboys, but Dallas was missing a million players. They then beat the Jets, but there are powder puff football teams that could probably give the Jets a run for their money. Carolina then got blown out by Buffalo, exposing its true colors.

Three weeks ago, the Panthers beat the Packers, who were napping off their win against the Steelers. Green Bay was also looking ahead to battling the Eagles next Monday night. And once again, the Panthers showed their true colors in a loss to the Saints. They then beat the Falcons, but only because Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London suffered injuries.

Chicago Bears
The Bears are 7-3, but they were very lucky to win some of their games. It must be noted that they’re 1-3 against teams in Groups B and C (they haven’t played a Group A team yet.) Five of their six wins have come against Groups D and F, and the lone exception was the victory against Washington, which Jayden Daniels threw away with the botched handoff with Jacory Crosky-Merritt. Chicago would have lost to the Giants at home had Jaxson Dart not gotten injured.

Houston Texans
I’m not sure why the Texans were automatically considered the favorites to win the AFC South entering the season. They have the worst offensive line in the NFL, and it’ll be even worse with two blockers leaving with injuries in the opener. Houston’s defense is excellent, but C.J. Stroud will continue to be under heavy pressure all year.

The Texans lost to the Rams, 14-9, and they also kept the Tampa Bay game close. However, the Buccaneers were down multiple offensive linemen, yet still drove down the field against Houston’s paper tiger defense. The same thing happened against Jacksonville. Now that the Texans demolished the Ravens and beat the 49ers recently, many may have forgotten how bad the Texans are. People don’t realize how bad this team is yet despite the .500 record.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are 6-4, but they haven’t played any team above Group C yet, save for the Rams, Seahawks, and one other exception. Both the Rams and Seahawks defeated Jacksonville easily. Their other opponents have been the Panthers, Bengals (when Joe Burrow got hurt), Texans (twice), the Nick Bosa-less 49ers, the Raiders, and the Chargers. That’s four Group C teams, two Group D teams, and two Group F teams. I can’t say that’s overly impressive.

Now, I did say there’s one exception, and that’s the Chiefs. Jacksonville won that game, but the Chiefs basically threw that one away. We saw Jacksonville’s true colors in its loss versus the Rams.

San Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are back on the overrated list. With Joe Alt injured, the Chargers won’t be able to block anyone. They barely survived the Titans, so what’s going to happen when they battle real competition? Sure, they beat the Steelers, but is defeating a decrepit Aaron Rodgers really a great feat? Their loss to the Jaguars was staggering.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 7-4, but they haven’t played any team above Group C yet, aside from the Rams twice. They’ve otherwise taken on seven Group C teams and lost to three and barely won two of those games. Their other opponents were a Group D team, the Giants, and a Group F team, the Saints.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Arizona Cardinals
I hate this Cardinals team because they’ve screwed us twice against the Panthers and Titans. However, I don’t think it’s correct to deem them a bad team. They’re 3-7, but they easily could have won five of the seven games they lost. Five of those losses were decided in the final seconds.

Kansas City Chiefs
It’s always fun when the Chiefs can be listed in the underrated section. Everyone seems to be writing them off because they’re 5-5, but they’re 5-3 ever since getting one of their starting receivers back from injury. They’ve lost two in a row, but there’s no shame in suffering defeats to the Bills and Broncos on the road.

New England Patriots
It feels weird to place a 9-2 team on the underrated list. But everyone always talks about how easy New England’s schedule has been. Yet, they’ve destroyed the competition in most instances. They play solid defense and have an MVP candidate at quarterback. They’re also coached extremely well.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints certainly have some holes on their roster, but they do some things well. For instance, Alvin Kamara is still a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield, while Chris Olave is a talented downfield threat. New Orleans stops the run well. Tyler Shough is a question mark, but in a small sample size, he has looked like an upgrade over Spencer Rattler.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.