NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 15

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Dec. 9, 2024

NFL Overrated Teams:

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens keep lucking into wins against the Bengals. Cincinnati has blown double-digit leads in both games. Had it maintained them, the Ravens would be 6-7 right now. My main issue with Baltimore is its horrible defense. The Ravens were 30th in adjusted EPA defense a couple of weeks ago. They’ve improved a bit since, but they still have some major issues.

Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone expects the Bengals to rebound, yet the Bengals just continue disappointing. They obviously have great offensive talent, but as amazing as their offense is, their defense is somehow even worse. How can any NFL team surrender 400-plus yards to Russell Wilson?

Denver Broncos
The Ravens exposed the Broncos as frauds. Denver racked up wins against teams in favorable situations – i.e. the Buccaneers after upsetting the Lions; the Jets prior to traveling overseas – and so it wasn’t a surprise to see them get blown out against Baltimore. Denver’s blowout win against an uninterested and injury-ravaged Falcons team makes them more overrated.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are somehow 11-2. Their defense is excellent, but their offense hasn’t been very convincing since the Christian Darrisaw injury, outside of their win over the hapless Falcons. None of the teams they’ve beaten since the Darrisaw injury have a winning record, by the way. Their best wins were against the Cardinals, Falcons, and Colts, all of whom are 6-7.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s defense is great. The offense? Despite Russell Wilson’s 414-yard performance against the Bengals, the Steelers are 21st in adjusted offensive EPA, so this could be their downfall in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have soared back to 7-6. However, the opponents they battled during their three-game winning streak have a combined record of 7-32, and they easily could have lost to Carolina. Forgive me for not being very impressed.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers being on the underrated list doesn’t have as much to do with Bryce Young’s improvement as some might think. Granted, Young has been much better recently, but Carolina has also gotten better elsewhere. The pass rush, for example, has been much improved ever since D.J. Wonnum returned from injury.

Green Bay Packers
The Packers should be discussed as one of the best teams in the NFL. They’re 9-4, yet two of their losses occurred when “No Cookie” Jordan Love tried to return early from an injury against a pair of excellent opponents (Vikings, Lions). Take out those games, and Green Bay is 9-2 with recent blowout victories over the 49ers and Dolphins.

Houston Texans
This may raise some eyebrows because the Texans have had some shaky victories and odd losses lately, but did you know that they rank first in adjusted defensive EPA? The offense has been the issue (23rd), but with Nico Collins rounding into shape, Houston should be better on that side of the ball down the stretch.

Miami Dolphins
It pains me to put the Dolphins here because Mike McDaniel is an anemic head coach. However, the Dolphins are much better than their 6-7 record indicates because of Tua Tagovailoa’s return. The Dolphins are the sixth-best team in the NFL, according to net adjusted EPA. They rank third in offense and 14th in defense, which should improve with Bradley Chubb returning.

San Angeles Chargers
People refuse to believe the Chargers are a good team for some reason. Maybe it’s because they don’t have viable receivers, but it’s very odd. They’re 8-5, but two of their losses occurred when Justin Herbert got injured in the third quarter against the Steelers, and the following week when everyone was out versus Kansas City, and yet that was a seven-point game. They almost beat the Chiefs in the second meeting despite Ladd McConkey’s absence.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has gotten much better recently. The team struggled for a while in October, but the defense has improved markedly since Leonard Williams has gotten healthy. The offensive line is in better shape now as well, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken the next step.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.