NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 16

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Dec. 15, 2025

NFL Overrated Teams:

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were the hipster pick of 2025. Everyone loves what they did versus the Chiefs, Eagles, and Buccaneers (first matchup) late last year. And yet, they lost those games, even though the Chiefs, Eagles and Buccaneers didn’t put forth any sort of effort into those contests. When the Panthers battled teams focused against them, they were obliterated by the Cowboys and Buccaneers (second matchup). Bryce Young still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, while the defense could still be a bottom-five unit.

The Panthers lost a “close” game to the Cardinals, but were down 27-3. This would have been a blowout had the Cardinals not fallen asleep at the wheel again. In the other games, the Panthers were demolished by the Jaguars and caught the Falcons completely unprepared to play off a big win on national TV. They got back to their real, losing ways against the Patriots. They beat the Dolphins, but we know how much Miami sucks. They also defeated the Cowboys, but Dallas was missing a million players. They then beat the Jets, but there are powder puff football teams that could probably give the Jets a run for their money. Carolina then got blown out by Buffalo, exposing its true colors.

Six weeks ago, the Panthers beat the Packers, who were napping off their win against the Steelers. Green Bay was also looking ahead to battling the Eagles next Monday night. And once again, the Panthers showed their true colors in a loss to the Saints. They then beat the Falcons, but only because Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London suffered injuries, and Atlanta was coming off an 11-hour jetlagged flight from Germany. The Panthers embarrassed themselves against the 49ers. They beat the Rams, but Los Angeles was a no-show, much like the Eagles were late last year versus Carolina. And once again, the Panthers showed their true colors in their loss to the Saints.

Chicago Bears
The Bears are 10-4, but they had a negative point differential heading into Black Friday. They’ve been very lucky to win some of their games. It must be noted that they’re 3-4 against teams in Groups A-C. Five of their 10 wins have come against Groups D and F. Chicago would have lost to the Giants at home had Jaxson Dart not gotten injured.

Denver Broncos
In two games against the Raiders, the Broncos have scored 10 and 17 offensive points. If you remove the Marvin Mims return touchdown, Denver scored just as many points as Las Vegas in the Week 14 matchup. In other games, the Broncos barely beat the Jets, Titans, and Giants. Their big wins were against the Chiefs, who have lost to everyone since, and the Packers, who were ahead for most of the game until they lost Christian Watson and Micah Parsons.

Philadelphia Eagles
People keep expecting the Eagles to rebound, but it’s just not happening. Their offense has been anemic all year because of poor blocking, and now Lane Johnson is sidelined. Meanwhile, the defense has been excellent, but will be worse without Jalen Carter. They squashed the Raiders, but that’s not really impressive.

San Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are back on the overrated list. With Joe Alt injured, the Chargers won’t be able to block anyone. They barely survived the Titans, so what’s going to happen when they battle real competition? Sure, they beat the Steelers, but is defeating a decrepit Aaron Rodgers really a great feat? Their loss to the Jaguars was staggering. They managed to beat the Chiefs, but everyone beats the Chiefs.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 10-4, but they haven’t played any team above Group C yet, aside from the Rams twice. They’ve otherwise taken on seven Group C teams and lost to three and barely won two of those games. Their other opponents were three Group D teams – Giants, Panthers, Browns – and two Group F teams, the Saints and the Titans.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Arizona Cardinals
I hate this Cardinals team because they’ve screwed us twice against the Panthers and Titans. However, I don’t think it’s correct to deem them a bad team. They’re 3-11, but they easily could have won seven of the 11 games they lost. Seven of those losses were decided in the final seconds. Jacoby Brissett has been better than Kyler Murray.

Buffalo Bills
I’ve heard some NFL podcasts write off the Bills as a potential Super Bowl champion because they can’t stop the run. That’s the only thing they’re bad at, and that’s not even a permanent thing because they’ll make improvements in that regard once Matt Milano is healthy.

Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve had the Jaguars in the overrated department earlier in the season, but I believe they are underrated now. Jakobi Meyers has been a huge boon for Trevor Lawrence, who has never had a reliable receiver like Meyers at his disposal. Lawrence has worked with talented receivers like Brian Thomas Jr. and Calvin Ridley, but they’ve been mistake-prone and/or injured. Meyers is something new for Lawrence. Also, Jacksonville’s defense has improved lately; it now ranks 11th in defensive EPA over the past two months.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have a solid defense and a quality offensive line. They also possess multiple dynamic play-makers. Their issue has been dreadful quarterbacking, but J.J. McCarthy has performed on a much higher level since his soft benching.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.