NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 6

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Oct. 7, 2024

NFL Overrated Teams:

Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons scored 36 points and Kirk Cousins threw for 500 yards against everyone’s favorite darling Buccaneers in a showcase game. This automatically puts the Falcons on my radar as overrated. Something else that does is their adjusted defensie EPA ranking, which is currently 25th. I thought their defense would be better with Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons, but that hasn’t been the case.

Dallas Cowboys
It’s wild that the Cowboys were divisional favorites to open the offseason. They lost two of their top offensive linemen and failed to fix their poor run defense, which was responsible for their ugly blowout loss to the Packers. They beat the Browns, but had the luxury of going up against a team missing both starting tackles. They were blown out in the two games after that (Dallas was losing 28-6 to Baltimore entering the fourth quarter.) They beat the Giants, but not in blowout fashion like they usually do. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are hurt, and while the Cowboys won without them, this is not something that is very sustainable. There are only seven teams with a worse net EPA than Dallas.

Houston Texans
The Texans are 4-1, and yet they’re 11th worst in adjusted net EPA. None of their wins have been convincing. They nearly lost to the Colts, they had trouble putting away the Bears, they squeaked by Jacksonville, and they got lucky that Josh Allen got concussed when the Bills were mounting a comeback in Week 5. None of their wins have been by more than six points.

Seattle Seahawks
It was fair to be skeptical of the Seahawks because their first three wins were against the Broncos, Patriots, and Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins. They’ve dropped two since, including a home game to the Giants. While the Seahawks may not have been focused for New York, it must be pointed out that the defensive EPA of Seattle has sunk to 18 despite battling Jacoby Brissett, Thompson, and Daniel Jones in three of the four games included in the metric.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everyone is impressed with Tampa Bay’s wins against Detroit and Philadelphia. The win versus the Lions wasn’t good once you dive into the numbers. The Lions outgained the Buccaneers, 463-216. This wasn’t a byproduct of garbage time either. The Buccaneers had issues sustaining drives with only two third-down conversions. They couldn’t block Detroit at all, whether it was pass protection or in the running game. The Lions simply shot themselves in the foot so many times. Tampa Bay then beat Philadelphia, but the Eagles didn’t have three of their top four offensive players, so that victory can’t be factored into their rankings at all.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 3-2, but despite Jordan Love’s two-game absence, they’re still ranked ninth in net adjusted EPA. Their defense has been solid – the Vikings barely did anything in the second half last week – while their offense can be explosive with a healthy Love.

New York Giants
I never thought I’d put the Giants in the underrated list after their win against the Seahawks, but I don’t think anyone believes in them yet. New York is a shocking sixth in net adjusted EPA, ranking 12th in both offense and defense. The stop unit has been better than expected, Daniel Jones just had his best performance of the year, and Tyrone Tracy could emerge as a star out of the backfield.

New York Jets
Despite the losses to the Broncos and Vikings, the Jets are seventh in net adjusted EPA. They were simply caught napping against Denver with an impending game in London, and they were beaten by a superior Minnesota squad overseas. There’s no shame in losing to the No. 1 team in the NFL Power Rankings.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers just lost to the Cardinals in an obvious look-ahead spot. Now that the 49ers are 2-3, everyone is asking what is wrong with this team even though San Francisco has had lots of its talent miss time with injuries. Most of the players will be healthy soon, and yet, the 49ers are still second in net adjusted EPA. Their offense is ninth, while their defense is 11th. It’s not great, but the 49ers will be fine.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.