Walt
I've posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I'll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
Updated Nov. 2, 2026
NFL Overrated Teams:
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 6-2, but they're just 13th in net EPA, which signals that they are very overrated. Four of their wins have come in altitude. Three of those victories were the result of comebacks against exhausted teams, while the fourth saw the Seahawks double the Broncos in yardage. The other two wins have come on the road against the Chargers and Cardinals.
Kansas City Chiefs Many expected the Chiefs to bounce back this year. They're 5-2, but they haven't exactly had tough competition before their blowout loss to Seattle. Excluding their initial win over the Broncos, which was boosted by an emotional outburst at home, Kansas City's four victories have come against teams that are 2-6, 1-6, 4-4, and 0-7. That's a combined record of 7-23. That's not impressive, especially when considering that they had issues putting away some of those teams.
Minnesota Vikings The Vikings are 6-1, but four of the teams they've beaten are the 3-5 Buccaneers, 1-6 Dolphins, 2-5 Saints, and 2-6 Colts. The two exceptions were victories over Chicago in a deluge that favored defense, and the Packers where Green Bay doubled Minnesota in yardage. They've also been outgained in four of their seven games.
New York Giants I've seen too many people confused about the Giants being home underdogs to the Saints to not put them in the overrated pile. The Giants were home underdogs to the Saints because they're worse than the Saints. Just because they were 3-1-1 doesn't mean that they're better than their 1-4 opponent. The Giants have had the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. Their defense stinks, they benched their best running back for no reason, and they have a backup quarterback starting for them.
Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers have had an easy schedule thus far, as they've gone up against the Falcons, Browns (twice), Colts, Buccaneers, and Saints. They've lucked out, as they'll get to play the Ravens with no Lamar Jackson.
NFL Underrated Teams:
Cincinnati Bengals Ask anyone what they think about the Bengals, and they'll say: explosive offense but terrible defense. They don't have a terrible defense anymore, however. They traded for Dexter Lawrence and acquired Bryan Cook to help their stop unit. They added some other pieces as well. They're currently ranked eighth in defensive EPA.
I know the Bengals were coming off two consecutive losses before battling the Dolphins, but they would have beaten the Steelers if they didn't turn the ball over on special teams twice in the fourth quarter. They lost to Jacksonville, but Ja'Marr Chase got hurt in the first half. They struggled against the Titans, but that was a poor spot for the team off a blowout win over the Ravens.
Houston Texans The Texans are 2-5, but they've battled four teams in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings. They nearly beat the Bills in the opener. They would have won had Kamari Lassiter not dropped an easy interception in the end zone. Their loss to the Colts was troubling, but their offense bounced back with Nico Collins. I'm not putting much stock into the loss to the Giants because the Texans celebrated a bit too much during their plane ride home from London.
Los Angeles Rams Everyone thinks the sky is falling for the Rams because they just lost to the Cardinals at home, but they were a blocked field goal away from defeating the Bills, whom many consider to be the best team in the NFL. The Rams were coming off an exhausted overtime game and thought they could just coast versus Arizona. It happens. Despite the loss to the Cardinals, the Rams are still third in net EPA, and they'll be getting Myles Garrett back soon.
New York Jets So many publications considered the Jets to be a bottom-three team entering the year, yet the Jets signed some key veterans this offseason to bolster their defense, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, T'Vondre Sweat, and Demario Davis.
The Jets also have a very good offensive line and some talented playmakers at the skill positions. Sure, Geno Smith sucks - don't tell Mina Kimes - but the point is that the Jets are not one of the worst teams in the league. They're maybe league average or slightly below it. They could easily be 6-2 right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Buccaneers, believe it or not, have the second-best defense in the NFL according to EPA. They've smothered the likes of the Cowboys, Falcons, and Packers. They also have a strong running game. Baker Mayfield's health is the only concern right now.
Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they're being used on the NFL Picks page.
NFL Picks - Nov. 8
2027 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 4
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 3
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7
Charlie Campbell