NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 18

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Dec. 30, 2024

NFL Overrated Teams:

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens lucked into two wins against the Bengals. Cincinnati has blown double-digit leads in both games. Had it maintained them, the Ravens would be 9-7 right now. My main issue with Baltimore is its horrible defense. The Ravens were 30th in adjusted EPA defense a few weeks ago. They’ve improved since, but only because they’ve gone against so many bad offenses.

Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone expects the Bengals to rebound, yet the Bengals just continue disappointing. They obviously have great offensive talent, but as amazing as their offense is, their defense is somehow even worse. How can any NFL team surrender 400-plus yards to Russell Wilson?

Denver Broncos
The Ravens exposed the Broncos as frauds. Denver racked up wins against teams in favorable situations – i.e. the Buccaneers after upsetting the Lions; the Jets prior to traveling overseas – and so it wasn’t a surprise to see them get blown out against Baltimore. Denver recently beat the Colts, but happened to be outgained by more than 100 yards and 1.1 yards per play, and needed a Jonathan Taylor dropped ball at the goal line to prevail.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are somehow 14-2. Their defense is excellent, but their offense hasn’t been very convincing since the Christian Darrisaw injury, outside of their wins over the hapless Falcons and low-effort packers. None of the teams they’ve beaten since the Darrisaw injury have a winning record, by the way, save for the Seahawks and Packers, who once again, didn’t come to play very hard. Their best wins otherwise were against the Cardinals and Colts, all of whom are 7-9. They had a three-point win at Seattle, but were outgained in total yards and yards per play.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s defense is great. The offense? Despite Russell Wilson’s 414-yard performance against the Bengals, the Steelers are 24th in adjusted offensive EPA, so this could be their downfall in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers soared back to 9-7. However, the opponents they battled during their four-game winning streak prior to taking on Dallas have a combined record of 21-42, and they easily could have lost to Carolina in the first meeting. Forgive me for not being very impressed. The Buccaneers were outclassed in Dallas.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Arizona Cardinals
I’ve broken down all the NFL teams into Groups A through F, with A being the elite teams and F being the worst. Did you know that prior to Week 15, the Cardinals hadn’t played a single team in Group D or Group F? They’ve had the toughest schedule in the NFL. They lost to the Panthers, but several players on the team had the flu, and both tackles and James Conner were lost to injury in that game.

Atlanta Falcons
It’s truly astonishing that since Week 12, the Falcons have maintained the No. 4 EPA defense in the NFL. Sure, they’ve battled some sketchy quarterbacks, but their pass rush has improved. The problem was Kirk Cousins, who is no longer throwing the ball to the other team in the wake of being benched.

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers being on the underrated list doesn’t have as much to do with Bryce Young’s improvement as some might think. Granted, Young has been much better recently, but Carolina has also gotten better elsewhere. The pass rush, for example, has been much improved ever since D.J. Wonnum returned from injury. The Panthers got smoked in Tampa Bay, but they were dealing with the flu and had several key injuries.

Green Bay Packers
The Packers should be discussed as one of the best teams in the NFL. They’re 11-5, yet two of their losses occurred when “No Cookie” Jordan Love tried to return early from an injury against a pair of excellent opponents (Vikings, Lions). Take out those games, and Green Bay is 11-3 with recent blowout victories over the 49ers and Dolphins.

San Angeles Chargers
The Chargers haven’t played well of late, though they may have been looking ahead to their Thursday night affair while taking on the Buccaneers. Ladd McConkey is rounding back into shape, while Denzel Perryman will be 100 percent soon. J.K. Dobbins is also back, giving the Chargers a viable ground attack once again.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has gotten much better recently. The team struggled for a while in October, but the defense has improved markedly since Leonard Williams has gotten healthy. The offensive line is in better shape now as well, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken the next step. The Seahawks just got clobbered against the Packers, but they’re still 14th in net adjusted EPA. They outgained the Vikings in total yards and yards per play.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.