NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams





I've posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I'll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Sept. 26, 2022




NFL Overrated Teams:


Chicago Bears
Some would say the Bears proved everyone wrong by winning in Week 1, but those people did not pay attention to the game. Chicago was legitimately outgained, 301-204, but managed to prevail because of some horrible luck from the 49ers. The Bears' offensive line remains a huge problem. If it wasn't for the fluky Dante Pettis play, as well as the torrential downpour, they likely would have lost, making them 1-2 right now. The Bears beat Houston, but needed a Davis Mills interception to do it. The Texans seemed like the better team in that game.

Indianapolis Colts
Don't be fooled by the Colts' win over the Chiefs. Kansas City averaged 1.4 more yards per play, and it had three second-half drives inside the 24 that led to just three points. The Chiefs should have won that game, and I say that as someone who bet the Colts.




Miami Dolphins
All anyone wants to talk about is Tua Tagovailoa's comeback versus the Ravens, but there's a reason the Dolphins were down by 21 twice. Miami also didn't have an impressive showing in Week 1 against the Patriots, scoring just 13 offensive points. They're incredibly overrated now after their win against the Bills, which was very lopsided in Buffalo's favor. The Bills outgained the Dolphins, 497-212, despite missing seven starters. Let's chill out a bit before we declare Miami to be the Greatest Show on Turf 2.0.




Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers prevailed over the Cowboys, but that win was not impressive because Dallas is not a good football team this year. Tampa then beat the Saints, but was outgained by a team with a hobbled quarterback. The Buccaneers have some major offensive line and receiver concerns.











NFL Underrated Teams:

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals lost to the Steelers, but they outgained Pittsburgh, 432-267. The Bengals were the better team in Week 1, but they endured some horrible bad luck via weird bounces, missed chip-shot field goals and dropped touchdowns. I don't think we saw their best effort against the Cowboys in Week 2. I was confident they'd rebound, and they did so versus the Jets. They're still underrated.

Detroit Lions
It's no surprise that the Lions fought hard to cover at the very end of the opener. They were outclassed by the Eagles, but Philadelphia is likely the best team in the NFC. The Lions bounced back nicely versus the Redskins despite missing three offensive linemen. They also outplayed the Vikings until Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift got banged up.

New Orleans Saints
The Saints were overrated to start the year, but they've ventured into underrated territory. They were the better team on the field in Carolina, averaging 1.7 more yards per play. The reason they lost is because of a fumble returned for a touchdown, a blocked field goal, and a missed chip-shot field goal.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers had an embarrassing loss to the start the season, but they were playing in a torrential downpour and still outgained the Bears by a healthy amount. They also lost to the Broncos, but outgained Denver and averaged 1.4 more yards per play.




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