Walt
I've posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I'll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
Updated Sept. 28, 2026
NFL Overrated Teams:
Denver Broncos
The Broncos just beat the Rams, but they did so illegitimately, which is why they're now an overrated team. They were outgained by 230 yards and needed the officials to bail them out with a bogus pass interference penalty at the end.
Denver was blown out by Kansas City in Week 1, and its two victories since then have required second-half comebacks from deficits of seven and 16 points. In both instances, the Broncos' opponents appeared to wear down in the altitude, allowing Denver to erase those leads.
Kansas City Chiefs Many expect the Chiefs to bounce back this year. They're 3-0, but they haven't exactly had tough competition thus far. I can't count out Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, and he's been one of the least-accurate quarterbacks in the NFL when targeting receivers 10-plus yards downfield over the past two seasons.
The Chiefs also lost their entire secondary this offseason, while their pass rush isn't very good. The offensive line is also a concern.
Green Bay Packers The Packers didn't win a single game last year after Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL. Parsons is going to be out until at least Week 6, so Green Bay should continue to look sluggish, especially after losing Rashan Gary, some offensive linemen, and potentially Josh Jacobs. No one should be surprised that they were blown out by the Falcons.
Minnesota Vikings The Vikings are 3-0, but they've beaten teams that are 1-2, 1-1, and 0-3. They've also been outgained in every game. Now, the Vikings will have to move forward without Justin Jefferson for several weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles are 2-0, but they barely beat the Redskins and Titans, two of the bottom-10 teams in the NFL. There are some major concerns with this team despite the undefeated record.
The Eagles are having issues blocking, Saquon Barkley looks washed up, and the defense has generated just 33 pressures through two weeks. Philadelphia will need to improve considerably once the schedule becomes more difficult.
Pittsburgh Steelers I have the Steelers projected for five wins this year. Mike Tomlin is gone, so he won't be able to enhance the defense anymore. I still think they'll have a good defense, but it won't be as great as it was under Tomlin.
Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy is one of the worst coaches in the NFL, while Aaron Rodgers turns 43 at some point this season. The Steelers lost one of their top offensive linemen in Isaac Seumalo, so Rodgers is going to have to throw even quicker than he did last year. I really have no hope for this team despite their win over the Falcons, who are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They also beat the Bengals, but needed two Cincinnati special-teams gaffes to prevail.
NFL Underrated Teams:
Cincinnati Bengals Ask anyone what they think about the Bengals, and they'll say: explosive offense but terrible defense. They don't have a terrible defense anymore, however. They traded for Dexter Lawrence and acquired Bryan Cook to help their stop unit. They added some other pieces as well.
Joe Burrow is healthy, the receivers are happy, and Cincinnati's schedule is very easy. The Bengals could easily make a Super Bowl run this year. They lost to the Steelers, but probably would have prevailed if they didn't turn the ball over on special teams twice in the fourth quarter.
Houston Texans The Texans are 0-3, but they've battled two teams in the top five of my NFL Power Rankings. They nearly beat the Bills in the opener. They would have won had Kamari Lassiter not dropped an easy interception in the end zone. Their loss to the Colts was troubling, but they'll bounce back when Nico Collins returns from injury.
New York Jets So many publications considered the Jets to be a bottom-three team entering the year, yet the Jets signed some key veterans this offseason to bolster their defense, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, T'Vondre Sweat, and Demario Davis.
The Jets also have a very good offensive line and some talented playmakers at the skill positions. Sure, Geno Smith sucks - don't tell Mina Kimes - but the point is that the Jets are not one of the worst teams in the league. They're maybe league average or slightly below it. They could easily be 3-0 right now.
Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they're being used on the NFL Picks page.
NFL Picks - Sept. 29
NFL Power Rankings - Sept. 29
2027 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 23
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7
Charlie Campbell
