I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
Updated Nov. 18, 2024
NFL Overrated Teams:
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens keep lucking into wins against the Bengals. Cincinnati has blown double-digit leads in both games. Had it maintained them, the Ravens would be 5-6 right now. My main issue with Baltimore is its horrible defense. The Ravens were 30th in adjusted EPA defense heading into last week.
Denver Broncos The Ravens exposed the Broncos as frauds. Denver racked up wins against teams in favorable situations – i.e. the Buccaneers after upsetting the Lions; the Jets prior to traveling overseas – and so it wasn’t a surprise to see them get blown out against Baltimore. Denver’s blowout win against an uninterested and injury-ravaged Falcons team makes them more overrated.
Minnesota Vikings The Vikings are somehow 8-2. Their defense is excellent, but their offense has struggled with turnovers lately. Everyone’s early-season MVP candidate, Sam Darnold, must have developed color blindness in recent weeks because he can’t stop throwing the ball to the other team. Christian Darrisaw’s absence has also had a huge impact on the offense.
New York Jets The Jets have great talent, but they’re not covering any of their spreads unless they play on Thursday. They remind me of a worse version of the Buccaneers in Tom Brady’s final season. Tampa Bay was favored by a ton of points each week, but almost never covered. The difference here is that the Jets are the worst-coached team in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks It was fair to be skeptical of the Seahawks because their first three wins were against the Broncos, Patriots, and Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins. They dropped three after that, including a home game to the Giants. While the Seahawks may not have been focused for New York, it must be pointed out that the defensive EPA of Seattle has sunk to 27th despite battling Thompson and Daniel Jones in two of the games included in the metric. The Seahawks beat the Falcons, but Atlanta is also on the overrated list. Following the losses to the Bills and Rams, Seattle ranks 29th in net adjusted EPA.
NFL Underrated Teams:
Arizona Cardinals People reuse to buy the Cardinals are a great team, but they’re fourth in net adjusted EPA despite enduring the toughest schedule in the NFL. Arizona is a surprising 15th in defense and first in offense, as Kyler Murray is playing out of his mind.
Los Angeles Rams Don’t look now, but the Rams are rated 10th in terms of net adjusted EPA. They have their two receivers back from injury, while their defense has improved since it got healthy. The Rams lost to the Dolphins on a recent Monday night, but they had offensive line issues stemming from players returning and being out of place. They seemingly got their act together against the Patriots.
Miami Dolphins It pains me to put the Dolphins here because Mike McDaniel is an anemic head coach. However, the Dolphins are much better than their 4-6 record indicates because of Tua Tagovailoa’s return. The Dolphins are the eighth-best team in the NFL, according to net adjusted EPA.
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia is 8-2, but its two losses came without A.J. Brown. In fact, if Saquon Barkley didn’t drop a third-down pass against Atlanta, the Eagles would be 9-1. Everyone dogged their defense earlier in the year, but the EPA numbers now say that their defense is No. 1. Net adjusted EPA has the Eagles as the No. 2 team in the NFL. I don’t trust Nick Sirianni, but the coordinators are doing a great job.
San Angeles Chargers People refuse to believe the Chargers are a great team for some reason. Maybe it’s because they don’t have viable receivers, but it’s very odd. The metrics say the Chargers have the No. 5 defense in the NFL. They’re 7-3, but two of their losses occurred when Justin Herbert got injured in the third quarter against the Steelers, and the following week when everyone was out versus Kansas City, and yet that was a seven-point game. Following the win against the Bengals, the Chargers rank No. 1 in adjusted net EPA.
San Francisco 49ers The 49ers are 5-5, so it’s the right time to buy low on them. They always lose to the Chiefs, so I’m not going to factor that into their overall evaluation because they can beat everyone else. They lost to the Seahawks, but didn’t have Nick Bosa or George Kittle during the collapse. Their defense is 10th in adjusted EPA. It sucks that Brandon Aiyuk is injured, but Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall have stepped up in his absence. Christian McCaffrey’s return makes the team even more lethal.
Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.
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