NBA Picks (Jan. 15-21) 7-7 (-$120)
NBA Picks (Jan. 22-28) 8-6 (+$80)
NBA Picks (Jan. 29-Feb. 4) 11-6 (+$750)
NBA Picks (Feb. 5-11) 8-7 (+$315)
NBA Picks (Feb. 12-18) 5-3 (+$190)
NBA Picks (Feb. 19-25) 3-6 (-$410)
NBA Picks (Feb. 26-March 3) 12-2 (+$1,620)
NBA Picks (March 4-10) 8-7 (+$190)
NBA Picks (March 11-17) 8-5-1 (+$315)
NBA Picks (March 18-24) 8-5 (+$205)
NBA Picks (March 25-31) 6-9 (-$520)
NBA Picks (April 1-7) 7-5 (+$690)
NBA Picks (April 8-14) 7-5 (+$505)
NBA Picks (Play-in Tournament) 2-4 (-$315)
NBA Picks (First Round + MIN/DEN Game 1) 13-20 (-$905)
NBA Picks (Second Round) 16-12 (+$200)
NBA Picks (Conference Finals) 12-6 (+$920)
NBA Picks (Finals) 4-4 (-$205)
2023-24 NBA Picks: 153-127-1 (+$3,285)
2022-23 NBA Picks: 61-69-4 (-$1,400)
2021-22 NBA Picks: 73-60-3 (+$2,815)
2020-21 NBA Picks: 98-96-5 (+$1,045)
2019-20 NBA Picks: 47-46-1 (+$450)
2018-19 NBA Picks: 114-98-4 (+$3,550)
2017-18 NBA Picks: 63-66-2 (-$1,850)
2016-17 NBA Picks: 51-67-2 (-$4,620)
2015-16 NBA Picks: 93-95-6 (-$1,305)
2014-15 NBA Picks: 62-53-4 (+$250)
2013-14 NBA Picks: 59-51-4 (+$760)
2012-13 NBA Picks: 51-45 (+$1,180)
2011-12 NBA Picks: 38-46-1 (-$3,005)
2010-11 NBA Picks: 113-89-4 (+$2,690)
2009-10 NBA Picks: 116-98-4 (+$1,375)
2008-09 NBA Picks: 122-119-6 (-$2,280)
2007-08 NBA Picks: 104-88-8 (+$1,485)
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
NBA Picks for the 2023-24 Season:
NBA Picks for Monday, June 17, 2024
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Celtics by 7.
8:30 PM ET
We got our win with the Mavericks, finally. Now, it’s time for the Celtics to finish this series. Boston mailed in Game 4, but will put forth more effort in this game. Kristaps Porzingis will also be available, in all likelihood. The Mavericks would’ve had a chance in this series if Porzingis were out, but Porzingis being back in action changes everything.
Player Prop: Jayson Tatum’s over did not hit in Game 4 because of foul trouble and the blowout. I think Tatum goes under in Game 5. Tatum doesn’t shoot as well at home, plus Porzingis’ potential return means he’ll have to do less than usual. The best number is under 27.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
If you’re looking for the best DFS content on the Web, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off!
I may post another pick later or add a unit to this game. If so, I’ll tweet it out. I’ll have updates on Twitter – @walterfootball.
Doc’s Sports has more free NBA picks for every single game.
DON’T MISS OUT! Get $60 in FREE member NBA picks from Doc’s Sports Service, one of the most trusted names in the handicapping industry since 1971! No salesmen and no obligations! Click Here.
NBA Pick: Celtics -7 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
NBA Picks for Friday, June 14, 2024 (1-1, +$95)
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 1.
8:30 PM ET
It’s extremely difficult to close out a series on the road against a good team. There have also been just nine sweeps in NBA Finals history. Is this series so lopsided that we’ll see a 10th sweep? Perhaps, but only if the Mavericks mail it in tonight. Conversely, if they try hard, they should be able to salvage at least one victory at home, especially against a Boston team that has slacked off on occasion throughout this year’s playoff run.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum over points. Yes, over. We’ve been fading Tatum at home, where he delegates more to the role players. Tatum, however, is a much better shooter on the road. His over points hit in Game 3, and I think it’ll happen again with Kristaps Porzingis nursing his injury. The best number is over 27.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -1 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum over 27.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Wednesday, June 12, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 3.
8:30 PM ET
Are the Celtics really going to sweep the Mavericks? I highly doubt it, especially with Kristaps Porzingis now nursing a leg injury. He may play, but if he does, he may not be 100 percent.
Bonus bet: I’m betting the Celtics to win 4-2 in this series at +500 (FanDuel). I’ll be shocked if the Mavericks don’t win at least one game, and with Porzingis hurt, Dallas could get two victories. Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum over points. Yes, over. We’ve been fading Tatum at home, where he delegates more to the role players. Tatum, however, is a much better shooter on the road, so I think he’ll get over his struggles with a big game tonight. The best number is over 26.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum over 26.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, June 9, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 6.
8:00 PM ET
When it was announced Kristaps Porzingis would play, I didn’t think he’d be 100 percent. He definitely was, as he had a great performance in Game 1. I know believe Boston will win this series. However, we’ve seen the Celtics be no-shows in Game 2. They could slack off here, while the Mavericks will shoot better by default than they did on Thursday. They shot just 25 percent from three, which has to regress to the mean.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points. We’ve been fading Tatum at home, where he delegates more to the role players. Dallas’ defense should be able to limit him anyway. The best number is under 26.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +6 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 26.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, June 6, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 6.
8:30 PM ET
The Celtics haven’t been tested in the playoffs without Kristaps Porzingis. They beat the Heat, who didn’t have Jimmy Butler. They then took on the Jarrett Allen-less Cavaliers, who lost Donovan Mitchell halfway through the series. After that, it was the Pacers, who kept things close in three games even though they didn’t have Tyrese Haliburton for the two battles in Indiana. I’m not saying Boston isn’t a great team, but the case can be made that Dallas is better. The Mavericks dismantled the Timberwolves, who beat the defending-champion Nuggets. They beat the No. 1 seed Thunder in six, though the series would have gone five had Luka Doncic not hurt his knee in Game 4. The Mavericks have been so much better since the trade deadline, and it seems like people are just beginning to realize this.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points. We’ve been fading Tatum at home, where he delegates more to the role players. Dallas’ defense should be able to limit him anyway. The best number is under 27.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +6 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, May 28, 2024 (1-1, +$90)
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 4.
8:30 PM ET
The Timberwolves shot lights out in Game 4, while Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving were 7-of-21 and 6-of-18 from the field, respectively. Despite this, Minnesota barely won! The Mavericks look to have Minnesota’s number, and Doncic plays better on the road anyway.
Player Prop: I like the Karl-Anthony Towns under. This should come as no surprise, as Towns has been a big choke artist at home. We’ve been fading him in Minnesota for a while, so hopefully we can win one more time. The best number is under 20.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +4 -101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns under 20.5 points -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Tuesday, May 28, 2024 (2-0, +$325)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Timberwolves by 1.
8:30 PM ET
The Timberwolves had a legitimate chance to win every game in this series. They’ve all been close, so why can’t they win once against a team that has mailed in some games during the playoffs this year? And for what it’s worth, the sharps are on Minnesota.
Player Prop: I like the Luka Doncic under. Game 3 marked the first time Doncic reached 30-plus points in a playoff home game, so this number is inflated. The best number is under 30.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -1 +112 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$225
NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic under 30.5 points -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, May 27, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Celtics by 7.
8:00 PM ET
It’s difficult to close out good teams on the road in the playoffs. The Celtics have shown that they’ll be no-shows in some games, and that could once again be the case tonight because they’re up 3-0 in the series. The Pacers nearly won two of the three games thus far, so they could win tonight before ultimately falling in Game 5.
Player Prop: I like the Pascal Siakam under. We bet Siakam two days ago, and we’ll do it again, as there’s regression to the mean after his absurd shooting in the first two games. The best number is under 23.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers +7 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Pascal Siakam under 23.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, May 26, 2024 (0-2, -$310)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Timberwolves by 1.
8:00 PM ET
Are the Mavericks really going to sweep this series? I don’t think so, especially after they shot their load in the Game 2 comeback. The Timberwolves could be up 2-0 right now with some better luck, and this is despite Anthony Edwards shooting miserably in both games. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic is dealing with two injuries.
Player Prop: I like the Luka Doncic under points prop. As mentioned, he is dealing with two injuries. He has also yet to reach 30 points in any playoff home game. The best number is under 30.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -1 +115 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic under 30.5 points -112 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Saturday, May 25, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Celtics by 6.
8:00 PM ET
The Celtics didn’t sweep the Jimmy Butler-less Heat. They didn’t sweep the Jarrett Allen-less Cavaliers. Are they going to sweep the Pacers? Maybe, but probably not. The Pacers play well at home, so I like getting six points with them, even if Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t play.
Player Prop: I like the Pascal Siakam under. Siakam has been on a tear through two games. He scored 28 points on Thursday, but did so on 13-of-17 shooting. It’d be shocking if he were that efficient again. Also, Siakam’s point toals with and without Haliburton are the same, so I don’t get why he’d get a bump if Haliburton is out. The best number is under 23.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers +6 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Pascal Siakam under 23.5 points -106 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, May 24, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 6.
8:30 PM ET
The Mavericks have shown that they’ll mail in some games in the playoffs, and they could do that tonight after winning Game 1 in Minnesota. Meanwhile, I don’t expect Anthony Edwards to shoot 6-of-16 from the field again.
Player Prop: Is it a Minnesota home game? Then, I’m betting Karl-Anthony Towns’ under prop bet. Towns has been a choke artist at home, and the role players tend to do more as hosts anyway. The best number is under 20.5 +100 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -6 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns under 20.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, May 23, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 9.5.
8:00 PM ET
The public is pounding the Pacers at a high rate, which is not a surprise because everyone just saw Game 1 go to overtime. However, the Celtics blew multiple double-digit leads and shot way worse from the free throw line. Boston is a much better team than the defensively inept Pacers, so I’m expecting a big win tonight.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points bet. We hit the Tatum under in regulation on Tuesday. The problem was that the game went to overtime. Tatum doesn’t score as much at home, as the role players often do more in Boston. The best number is under 30.5 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -9.5 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 30.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, May 22, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 3.5.
8:30 PM ET
We’ve had the worst luck lately. We were beaten on two last-second shots in the Celtics-Cavaliers series, and we just had our second under points prop bet loss because of overtime. Hopefully variance swings the other way beginning tonight. I like the Mavericks. The Timberwolves have to be exhausted from a great comeback in altitude, while Dallas continues to surprise. The Mavericks have been a terrific defensive team since the trade deadline, so they’ll have a shot to pull the upset in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves lost twice to Denver.
Player Prop: I like the Karl-Anthony Towns under points bet. I talked about how Towns has turned into a choke artist, especially at home. That should continue tonight against Dallas’ terrific interior defense. The best number is under 20.5 -128 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +3.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns under 20.5 points -128 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, May 21, 2024 (0-2, -$310)
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 11.
8:00 PM ET
The public is backing the Pacers because this spread is high. However, Indiana really shouldn’t be in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Pacers have lucked out with battling a Giannis-less Bucks team and then an injury-ravaged Knicks squad. The Celtics have one their Game 1s by 20 and 13.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points bet. We made money fading Tatum in the opening round. We’re going against Tatum again because he’s not as productive at home as he is on the road. Also, there’s a good chance this will be a blowout. The best number is under 29.5 -111 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -11 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 29.5 points -111 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Sunday, May 19, 2024 (0-2, -$305)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 5.
8:00 PM ET
Yesterday sucked, as we had a failed cover in an outright win, and an under points bet that lost by 0.5. Let’s hope for better luck tonight. The play is the Nuggets again. They quit after getting down early in Minnesota, saving their energy for Game 7. They’re the better team with Jamal Murray healthy, so they should be able to win. Let’s hope they cover as well.
Player Prop: I like the T.J. McConnell under points bet. McConnell’s minutes have decreased in recent games because Tyrese Haliburton is seeing more action as the games in this series become more important. McConnell also doesn’t shoot nearly as well on the road as he does at home. The best number is under 9.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: T.J. McConnell under 9.5 points -104 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Saturday, May 18, 2024 (0-2, -$315)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 4.5.
8:00 PM ET
The Nuggets and Knicks couldn’t close out their series in Game 6. The difference between those games and this one is that Dallas will be playing at home, a situation where it’s much easier to conclude a series. The Mavericks would have won the series already had Luka Doncic not gotten hurt in Game 4. They should be able to take care of business tonight.
Player Prop: I like the Luka Doncic under points bet. Doncic isn’t as productive at home as he is on the road because the role players can handle more responsibility in Dallas. Doncic went under this point total in the closing game of the opening round where he played 43 minutes. The best number is under 28.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -4.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic under 28.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Friday, May 17, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 6.
8:30 PM ET
The public is backing the underdog tonight, which makes the Pacers more appealing than they already are. New York is missing four key players, so the Game 5 win may look like a fluke after tonight’s result.
Player Prop: I like the Josh Hart under points bet. Role players typically play worse on the road, and that applies to Hart, who averages four fewer points per away game than he does in New York. Coming off a win, Hart may not be so desperate. This game could be a blowout as well. The best number is under 15.5 -125 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers -6 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Josh Hart under 15.5 points -125 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, May 16, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 1.5.
8:30 PM ET
We’ve been beaten on the final shot in two of the past three nights. Hopefully we get better variance going forward. Anyway, the Timberwolves are cooked. They looked so dominant to start the series, but the Nuggets getting a million days off to get Jamal Murray healthy completely transformed this series. Denver should deliver the knockout punch tonight.
Player Prop: I like the Karl-Anthony Towns under points bet. Murray getting healthier was one catalyst for Denver rebounding. The other is Karl-Anthony Towns checking out. Towns has been terrible lately, and he tends to be far less productive at home. The best number is under 20.5 -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets +1.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns under 20.5 points -122 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, May 15, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 16.
7:00 PM ET
There might be some sticker shock with this number, but remember that the Cavaliers couldn’t even beat the Magic on the road. Now, they’re going to have to win in Boston without Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and perhaps Caris LeVert.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points bet. We’re going back to fading Tatum at home, where he scores far less than he does on the road. Tatum had just 16 points in Game 5 of the opening round, and like that game, this one could easily be a blowout. The best number is under 29.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -16 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 29.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, May 14, 2024 (1-1, +$85)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 4.5.
7:00 PM ET
I was all over the Timberwolves to start this series, but something has changed. Jamal Murray was not healthy to begin this series, but the million days off between Games 2 and 3 allowed that to change. Murray being close to 100 percent has tilted this series heavily toward Denver. The Timberwolves look lost now, so I expect the Nuggets to finish them off quickly.
Player Prop: I like the Nikola Jokic under points bet. Jokic is playing at home, so the supporting cast can do more, and his team has enjoyed two consecutive victories, so he won’t be desperate to score a ton. The best number is under 29.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -4.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Nikola Jokic under 29.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Monday, May 13, 2024 (1-1, -$95)
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Celtics by 9.
7:00 PM ET
The Celtics are the play once again. We’ve seen them really focus on the road, especially after their Game 2 sleepwalking blunders. They’re just a much better team than the Cavaliers, so they should be able to win easily once again.
Player Prop: I like the Luka Doncic under points bet. It’s the same reason we bet the Doncic under two days ago. Doncic’s offensive output decreases following wins, and it’s also not as potent at home. The best number is under 28.5 +102 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -9 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic under 28.5 points +102 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$105
NBA Picks for Sunday, May 12, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 6.
3:30 PM ET
The Knicks are in rough shape. OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson are out in addition to Julius Randle. They are incredibly thin, and yet the public is betting them at a three-quarters clip. Unless Donte DiVincenzo hits a billion threes again, it’ll be difficult for New York to hang with Indiana.
Player Prop: I like the Tyrese Haliburton under points bet. Haliburton has averaged just 16 points per game following wins in the playoffs this year, and he averages a point fewer per game at home because the role players can do more as hosts. The best number is under 21.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers -6 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton under 21.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, May 11, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Celtics by 7.5.
8:30 PM ET
The Celtics could have told us that they’d be a complete no-show in Game 2. They cost us some money, but I suspect that they’ll bounce back in Game 3, just as they did versus Miami in the prior series.
Player Prop: I like the Luka Doncic under points bet. Doncic has averaged just 24.5 points per game off a win in the playoffs, and he has yet to score 30-plus points in such a situation. He’s also at home, where the role players can do more. The best number is under 30.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -7.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic under 30.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, May 10, 2024 (0-2, -$305)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 4.
9:30 PM ET
We’ve backed the Timberwolves in the first two games, so why stop now? I think it’s a huge mistake to think that the Nuggets can rebound from down 0-2 so easily. This is a team that trailed by double digits to the Lakers in all but one game in the opening round. The writing was on the wall that there was something wrong with them, and now Jamal Murray is hurt. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves smoked the Suns and dominated the Nuggets in an important Game 2 for Denver. The Nuggets have no answer for Minnesota.
Player Prop: I like the Donte DiVincenzo under points bet. DiVincenzo has been hot lately with three performances of 20-plus, but he’s had most of his best games at home. Of his three road playoff games, DiVincenzo has scored single digits twice. I know he’s playing more now, but I don’t expect the shots to fall as frequently for him in Indiana. The best number is under 20.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -4 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Donte DiVincenzo under 20.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Thursday, May 9, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 13.5.
7:00 PM ET
I’m backing the Celtics again. As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Cavaliers couldn’t even win in Orlando. How are they going to contend with Boston at all? This should be an easy blowout.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points bet. Same reason as Game 1: Tatum failed to cross 27 points in all four matchups against Cleveland this year. Furthermore, he exceeded 27 points only once in the opening-round series against Miami. Granted, many of those games were blowouts, but I suspect that there will be a similar outcome tonight. The best number is under 27.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -13.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, May 8, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks.
Line: Knicks by 4.
8:00 PM ET
This seems like an even series that will go seven. The Pacers easily could have won Game 1, so in a true coin flip, I’ll take the four points.
Player Prop: I like the Jalen Brunson under points bet. Brunson has five straight games of 39 or more points, but three of them came on the road. Brunson averages 2.1 fewer points per game at home, and the only reason he went over in one of the games against the 76ers is because the contest went to overtime. Otherwise, Brunson wouldn’t have this streak of 39-plus points. The best number is under 37.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers +4 +102 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Brunson under 37.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, May 7, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 13.
7:00 PM ET
The Cavaliers couldn’t even beat the Magic in Orlando, and they’re somehow supposed to hang with Boston? This should be a blowout. I suspect the Celtics will win this series in five games at the very most.
Player Prop: I like the Jayson Tatum under points bet. Tatum failed to cross 27 points in all three matchups against Cleveland this year. Furthermore, he exceeded 27 points only once in the opening-round series against Miami. Granted, many of those games were blowouts, but I suspect that there will be a similar outcome tonight. The best number is under 27.5 -111 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -13 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points -111 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, May 6, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 5.
10:00 PM ET
There’s something wrong with the Nuggets. They trailed the Lakers by double digits in almost every game, and then they dropped a game to the Timberwolves at home. Jamal Murray is not 100 percent. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, swept the Suns and took it to Denver in Game 1. And yet, they’re five-point dogs? How does that make sense?
Player Prop: I like the Jamal Murray under points bet. Murray is dealing with a calf strain, so he’s not quite himself. Also, the Nuggets are at home, so the role players can handle more of the responsibility. The best number is under 22.5 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +5 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jamal Murray under 22.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, May 5, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Cavaliers by 3.
1:00 PM ET
The home team has won every game in this series, so Cleveland has to win Game 7, right? I really don’t think so. In fact, home teams in this situation in playoff history are just 4-7 against the spread, not including the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers have been hurt by the Jarrett Allen injury (even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent), and everyone looked scared to shoot the ball in the fourth quarter besides Donovan Mitchell.
Player Prop: I like the Donovan Mitchell under points bet. He just scored 50 points, but that was the only time he eclipsed 30 in this series. He’ll also be at home, where the role players will be more involved. The best number is under 29.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Magic +3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Donovan Mitchell under 29.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Saturday, May 4, 2024 (1-1, +$95)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 4.
7:00 PM ET
These Nuggets aren’t the same dominant team we saw last year. The Lakers led by double digits against them in most of their matchups. The Timberwolves are much better than the Lakers, and they were 3-1 against the spread against Denver during the regular season. The Timberwolves embarrassed the Suns, so I think they can hang with Denver.
Player Prop: I like the Nikola Jokic under points bet. In 23 career games against Karl-Anthony Towns, Jokic has cracked 27 points only three times. He’s also playing at home, so the role players may do a lot of the work. The best number is under 28.5 -106 at Caesars, followed by 28.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +4 -101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Nikola Jokic under 28.5 points -106 (1 Unit) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Friday, May 3, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 4.
7:00 PM ET
We backed the Magic at home in Games 3 and 4, and we’ll be doing that again tonight. Orlando is so much better at home, while Cleveland sucks on the road. Also, Jarrett Allen is banged up, which has really tilted this series toward the Magic despite Cleveland being up in the series.
Player Prop: I like the Luka Doncic under points bet. Doncic is coming off a 35-point performance, so this is a good opportunity to catch some regression. He’ll be playing at home, so the role players will contribute more than they would on the road, which could limit Doncic’s scoring output. The best number is under 33.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Magic -4 -101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Luka Doncic under 33.5 points -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, May 1, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 13.
7:30 PM ET
As I wrote yesterday, it’s difficult to close out a series on the road. The Celtics are at home, but they’re coming off two dominant wins in Miami. I doubt we’ll see them at 100 percent tonight, given that they’re coming off travel and now are at home, where they’ll have more distractions. The Heat are an extremely well coached, veteran team, so they won’t give up so easily. Boston will win this game, but Miami should keep it close.
Player Prop: I like the Paul George under points bet. Hopefully we get better luck tonight, as we had Brunson under correct in regulation, but overtime took him over his prop. George is coming off a huge game, but he has scored fewer than 25 points in the other three games in this series. The best number is under 24.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Heat +13 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Paul George under 24.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, April 30, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Pacers by 3.5.
9:30 PM ET
It’s difficult to close a series out on the road. The Nuggets couldn’t even do it to the Lakers in Game 4. I know that the Bucks are missing two players, but Tyrese Haliburton is banged up for the Pacers. I expect him to play, but if he’s not 100 percent, the Bucks could certainly take this one before inevitably losing in Game 6.
Player Prop: I like the Jalen Brunson under points bet. Brunson went nuts in Game 4, but whenever a player has an absurd scoring total in the playoffs, they usually regress to the mean in the next game. Brunson scored 22 and 24 in New York in this series, so I imagine the Knicks role players will have a greater role now that they’re playing at home again. The best number is under 33.5 -103 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bucks +3.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Brunson under 33.5 points -103 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Monday, April 29, 2024 (1-1, +$75)
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat.
Line: Celtics by 11.
7:30 PM ET
This is a high number, but it’s high for a reason. The Celtics absolutely destroyed the Heat in Games 1 and 3. They took Game 2 for granted, but I doubt they do that again in this series. Miami is just outmatched.
Player Prop: I like the Lou Dort under points bet. As mentioned multiple times recently, role players generally do worse on the road. Lou Dort is coming off a good performance, so regression to the mean is likely as well. The best number is under 9.5 -130 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -11 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Lou Dort under 9.5 points -130 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$130
NBA Picks for Sunday, April 28, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 6.
1:00 PM ET
The 76ers would be up 2-1 in this series had their coach just called a timeout. They’re the much better team as long as Joel Embiid is playing, while the Knicks don’t have the same juice when they can’t feed off the crowd.
Player Prop: I like the Donte DiVincenzo under points bet. As mentioned yesterday with our Caris LeVert bet, role players generally do worse on the road. The best number is under 13.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: 76ers -6 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Donte DiVincenzo under 13.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, April 27, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 3.
1:00 PM ET
So much for the report that Khris Middleton was injured. Anyway, I’m taking Orlando here for the same reason I bet them in Game 3. I expect this to be a home-dominated series with both young teams being so much worse on the road.
Player Prop: I like the Caris LeVert under points bet. LeVert scored 15 points in a blowout in Game 3. This game won’t be as lopsided, but role players generally do worse on the road. The best number is under 9.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Magic -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Caris LeVert under 9.5 -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, April 26, 2024 (0-2, -$305)
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 7.
5:30 PM ET
The Bucks were already without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and now they’ll be expected to overcome an injured Khris Middleton. In addition to being out-coached, they’re also outmatched with their injuries, as Damian Lillard can only do so much.
Player Prop: I like the Khris Middleton under points bet. As I said, Middleton is dealing with an injury and may not be 100 percent. The best number is under 18.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers -7 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Khris Middleton under 18.5 -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Thursday, April 25, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 3.
7:00 PM ET
The Cavaliers haven’t trailed yet in this series. Will that continue for the next two games? I don’t think so, especially given how bad Cleveland is on the road. The Cavaliers are 2-8 in their previous 10 road games, while the Magic play so much better at home.
Player Prop: I like the Jarrett Allen under points bet. Allen has been great thus far in the series, but he’s bound to regress to the mean. The best number is under 14.5 +100 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Magic -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen under 14.5 +100 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, April 24, 2024 (0-2, -$300)
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 7.
9:30 PM ET
The Pelicans covering Game 1 was painful to watch because I almost bet them. I’ll go with them tonight. They nearly won Game 1 despite Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum playing poorly, so they could easily upset the overrated Thunder.
Player Prop: I like the Josh Giddey under points bet. Giddey isn’t as productive with everyone healthy, and the Pelicans play outstanding defense. The best number is under 9.5 +102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +7 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Josh Giddey under 9.5 points +102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, April 23, 2024 (1-1, +$90)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Mavericks by 2.
10:00 PM ET
Everything that could have went wrong went wrong for the Mavericks on Sunday, kind of like for us last night when D’Angelo Russell hit every three-pointer he attempted. The Mavericks were out of sorts and looked like they were overconfident. Everything should shift back to normalcy tonight, as the Mavericks are a much better team than the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers.
Player Prop: I like the James Harden under points bet. Harden was on fire in Game 1, so regression to the mean is likely. Harden is also a known choke-artist in the playoffs, so with a lead in the series, I’d expect him to struggle tonight. The best number is under 19.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -2 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: James Harden under 19.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Monday, April 22, 2024 (0-1, -$315)
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 8.
10:00 PM ET
The Nuggets continue to own the Lakers, and if that wasn’t bad enough for Los Angeles, LeBron James hurt his wrist at the end of Game 1. The Nuggets should be able to win convincingly yet again.
Player Prop: I like the D’Angelo Russell under points bet. Russell has been held to 13 points or fewer in every playoff game against Denver. The best number is under 16.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -8 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: D’Angelo Russell under 16.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Sunday, April 21, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Mavericks by 3.
3:30 PM ET
The Mavericks have been incredible in the second half of the year, thanks in part to the Daniel Gafford acquisition. Gafford has been a defensive stalwart for the Mavericks, so he’ll help them against the Clippers, who probably won’t have Kawhi Leonard available. The Clippers are just 7-7 without Leonard this season (3-4 versus playoff teams.)
Player Prop: I like the Ivica Zubac under points bet. As mentioned, Gafford has improved Dallas’ defense markedly. Here are Zubac’s scoring outputs against Gafford in five career matchups: 5, 12, 2, 10, and 4. The best number is under 11.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -3 -101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Ivica Zubac under 11.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Saturday, April 20, 2024 (1-2, -$100)
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 1.5.
3:30 PM ET
The Suns are my favorite of the longer shots (15/1 or better) to win the championship. They have a very favorable first-round matchup. The Suns dominated the Timberwolves in the regular season, as Minnesota’s usually great defense couldn’t do anything to stop what Phoenix was doing.
NBA Pick: Suns +1.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 7.5.
9:30 PM ET
This number seems very short. The Nuggets swept the Lakers in the playoffs last year, and then they swept the regular-season series this year. The Nuggets are well rested and will have the altitude advantage against an older team.
Player Prop: I like the Anthony Davis under points bet. In his past six matchups against Nikola Jokic, Davis has scored 23 or fewer points all but once. This is a major reason why Denver has dominated the matchup. The best number is under 23.5 +110 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -7.5 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Anthony Davis under 23.5 points +110 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Wednesday, April 17, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET
I know 76er fans are terrified of this matchup because the Heat have owned their team in the past, but just look at how the Warriors played yesterday. Miami is another has-been, while the 76ers project much better going forward because of Joel Embiid’s return to the lineup. Philadelphia was 47-35 overall this year, but was 31-8 with Embiid in the lineup! Had Embiid remained healthy all year, the 76ers would be the No. 2 seed, so we’re getting them at a great discount with this -5.5 line.
Player Prop: I like the Bam Adebayo under points bet. He never does well against Joel Embiid. Here are his previous four scoring outputs against Embiid: 14, 14, 13, and 6. The best number is under 17.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: 76ers -5.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Bam Adebayo under 17.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, April 16, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans.
Line: Pelicans by 2.
7:30 PM ET
The Pelicans were debacled at the hands of the Lakers on Sunday, causing a 1.5-point shift in the line for the same matchup. Let’s take that value, as the Pelicans were working Brandon Ingram back into the lineup on Sunday. Ingram played just 23 minutes, so he’ll see way more action tonight. The public is pounding this Laker team because of the Sunday blowout, yet everyone is ignoring that the Lakers nearly lost to the Grizzlies, and suffered double-digit defeats in two games recently.
Player Prop: I like the D’Angelo Russell under points bet. He’s coming off a 19-point output, which doesn’t appear likely again because the Pelicans play outstanding defense against point guards. Russell had a 14-point performance against New Orleans earlier in the season. The best number is under 17.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pelicans -2 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: D’Angelo Russell under 17.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Sunday, April 14, 2024 (1-2, -$110)
Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Kings by 16.
3:30 PM ET
There’s nothing to suggest that the Kings deserve to be favored by 16 points versus anyone, even against Portland. They’re 1-5 straight up in their previous six games, so a team reeling like this down the stretch should be faded. Besides, Portland has been competitive lately, failing to cover the spread only once in their previous seven contests.
NBA Pick: Blazers +16 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Warriors by 9.5.
3:30 PM ET
There’s a chance the Warriors end up with the eighth seed, but that would require a lot to happen. Are they going to risk injury for a slight chance to be the No. 8 seed? I’m not even convinced they play their starters the entire game, or even at all. They haven’t even played well lately as a whole, going 1-4 against the spread in their previous five games.
Player Prop: Rudy Gobert seems like a great fade. He’s coming off a 25-point output, but there should be regression to the mean. This matchup is much tougher than the one he had against Atlanta. In fact, Gobert has scored only four points in each of the two matchups versus Phoenix this year. The best number is under 13.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz +9.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Rudy Gobert under 13.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Thursday, April 11, 2024 (1-1, +$105)
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: Warriors by 13.5.
10:00 PM ET
The Warriors don’t seem to be a good-enough team to consistently win by two touchdowns. I know Portland is the opponent, but the Trailblazers have been a covering machine of late. They’ve beaten the number against the Celtics, Pelicans and Magic, so why couldn’t they do the same to Golden State?
Player Prop: Jalen Duren seems like a nice fade. He’s scored well lately, but has enjoyed easy matchups. In tougher spots, he’s scored between 8-11 points of late, and this is another one against Nikola Vucevic. The best number is under 13.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Trailblazers +13.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Duren under 13.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Wednesday, April 10, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Magic by 2.
8:00 PM ET
The Bucks won a big statement game against the Celtics yesterday, but they’re apparently punting this game because they’re resting Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks are 3-3 without him this year.) Meanwhile, the Magic lost last night, as it was fairly evident that they were looking ahead to this matchup. This is their chance to make a statement.
Player Prop: I’ve been fading top players, which is a strategy that worked very well earlier in the year. That has not been the case lately, and I think it’s because the stars are getting amped up for the playoffs. So, we’re going to shift gears and fcus on support players. With that in mind, Brook Lopez seems like a nice fade. He’s scored well lately, but the Magic play great defense against centers. In two meetings against Orlando this year, Lopez has scored a combined 23 points. The best number is under 12.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Magic -2 +102 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Brook Lopez under 12.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, April 9, 2024 (2-1, +$310)
Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets.
Line: Magic by 2.5.
8:00 PM ET
There was no NBA last night, so let’s make it up with two NBA picks today. The first will be the Rockets. The Magic haven’t been that great recently, and they could be distracted with a tough game against Milwaukee tomorrow.
NBA Pick: Rockets +2.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Washington Bullets at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 16.
8:00 PM ET
Minnesota is another team that could be distracted. The Timberwolves have the Nuggets coming up tomorrow and could completely overlook Washington. The question is if we can trust the Bullets, and I think we can. They’re 6-4-1 ATS in their previous 11 games, and they’ve covered the spread against some good teams.
Player Prop: I like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points. SGA is dealing with some sort of quad injury and has had trouble scoring lately as a result. The Kings also play decent enough defense to limit him. The best number is under 28.5 -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bullets +16 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points -102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, April 7, 2024 (1-0, +$200)
Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs.
Line: 76ers by 6.5.
7:00 PM ET
I can’t believe what happened last night. The Pistons, as 9.5-point dogs were up NINE late in the fourth quarter, yet missed the cover by half a point because the Nets went on a 19-0 run to end the game. Unreal. Let’s hope for better luck today with the 76ers. We’re seeing a deflated spread with them because they played last night. However, no 76er was on the court for more than 27 minutes, so the team should have fresh legs. They’ll also be highly motivated because they’re looking to skyrocket up the standings with Joel Embiid back from his injury.
Player Prop: I like Nicolas Claxton under 11.5 points. The Nets have been eliminated from the playoffs, so it seems as though the veterans’ minutes are being scaled back a bit. This is also a very difficult matchup for Claxton. The best number is under 11.5 -118 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: 76ers -6.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Nicolas Claxton under 11.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — No action; $0
NBA Picks for Saturday, April 6, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets.
Line: Nets by 9.5.
8:00 PM ET
The Pistons won’t have Cade Cunningham tonight. They’re 4-11 without Cunningham, which sounds terrible until you consider that six of their losses without him were by single digits, which would cover the spread tonight. So, the Pistons either win or lose by single digits two-thirds of the time without Cunningham, which sounds good to me. They should be able to cover against the Nets, who may have low motivation after being eliminated from the playoffs recently. Oh, and I know the Pistons played last night, but only one player was on the court for more than 25 minutes, so they should have fresh legs.
Player Prop: I like Anthony Davis under 23.5 points. Davis just dominated Washington, making him an easy fade, especially with the Timberwolves on deck tomorrow. The Cavaliers play great post defense, so they should be able to limit Davis. The best number is under 23.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pistons +9.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Anthony Davis under 23.5 points (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, April 5, 2024 (1-1, +$90)
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls.
Line: Bulls by 2.
8:00 PM ET
The Knicks had a great win against the Kings last night, but it may have been a Pyrrhic victory. Four of their players logged 38-plus minutes, so there could be fatigue tonight, especially after traveling.
Player Prop: I like Jalen Brunson under 28.5 points. Brunson has had some monster games lately, making him an easy fade, especially after he logged 38 minutes last night. The Bulls defend point guards extremely well, making it more likely that the under will hit. The best number is under 28.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
If you’re looking for the best DFS content on the Web, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off!
I may post another pick later or add a unit to this game. If so, I’ll tweet it out. I’ll have updates on Twitter – @walterfootball.
NBA Pick: Bulls -2 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Brunson under 28.5 -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Thursday, April 4, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Nuggets by 3.
10:00 PM ET
The Nuggets shouldn’t be favored on the road against good teams. They’re much weaker away from home; they even have a negative point differential on the road! The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, but they’re 2-2 in home games without Leonard this season.
Player Prop: I like Joel Embiid under 25.5 points. Embiid is back, but is on a minutes restriction. He’s also not in shape; he was bent over and gasping for air in the fourth quarter versus the Thunder. Plus, Miami has a great interior defense. The best number is under 26.5 -115 at Bet365. If you don’t have access to Bet365, the next-best number is under 25.5 +112 at Caesars. You can Bet $5 And Get $150 Or Get A First Bet Safety Net Up To $1,000 from Bet365 by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Clippers +3 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Joel Embiid under 25.5 +112 (1 Unit) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, April 3, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 10.5.
7:30 PM ET
The Trae Young-less Hawks don’t deserve to be favored by this many points over anyone, and this is a bad spot for them anyway. They’re coming off a big win versus Chicago and have to battle the Mavericks tomorrow. The Pistons, meanwhile, have been a covering machine since Christmas.
Player Prop: I like Jarrett Allen under 16.5 points. Allen’s had some big performances lately, so now seems like a good time to fade him, especially against a great Phoenix defense. The best number is under 16.5 -111 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pistons +10.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen under 16.5 points -111 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Tuesday, April 2, 2024 (1-0, +$210)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: Thunder by 1.5.
7:30 PM ET
I mentioned Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s quad injury a couple of days ago. Given the injury, and the fact that the Thunder have a big game against the Celtics tomorrow, I could see Oklahoma City taking it easy tonight. The 76ers, meanwhile, have been a covering machine lately, going 7-2 against the spread in their previous nine games.
Player Prop: I like Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points. SGA has been bothered by a quad injury, and the Thunder may limit his minutes tonight with the Celtics on deck. The 76ers also defend point guards very well. The best number is under 28.5 -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: 76ers +1.5 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points -122 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — No action; $0
NBA Picks for Monday, April 1, 2024 (1-1, +$85)
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls.
Line: Bulls by 1.5.
8:00 PM ET
We bet the Bulls yesterday and won. We’ll be fading them tonight. They’re coming off a big win, but now have to play on no rest with travel. Five of their players logged 33-plus minutes last night.
Player Prop: I like DeAndre Ayton under 18.5 points. Ayton has been on a scoring spree lately, so it’s a good time to fade him. He’s going against an Orlando team with a great paint defense, and he may not see any fourth-quarter action in a potential blowout. The best number is under 18.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hawks +1.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: DeAndre Ayton under 18.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Sunday, March 31, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 7.5.
7:00 PM ET
The Timberwolves are coming off a big statement win over the Nuggets, which you would think would inflate this spread. Instead, the Timberwolves are favored by just eight or so. Interesingly enough, there’s a ton of sharp money coming in on Chicago. I suspect the sharps believe Minnesota will be flat off its big win, and that’s the same conclusion I came to before looking at the flow of money.
Player Prop: I like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points. Gilgeous-Alexander is bothered by some sort of a quad injury, which would explain his low output recently. He’ll also be battling one of the top defenses in the NBA. The best number is under 28.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bulls +7.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, March 30, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 13.
7:00 PM ET
Maybe there is something wrong with the Magic, who have now dropped three in a row. Their main guys played 33-plus minutes last night, so they could have tired legs against the Grizzlies, who are 3-3 against the spread in their previous six games. During this six-game stretch, they’ve battled the Thunder, Kings, Warriors, Nuggets, and Lakers.
Player Prop: I like Zion Williamson under 25.5 points. Williamson has scored 28, 29, and 36 points in his previous three games, so he’s an easy fade tonight versus the Celtics, who play usually play great defense. The best number is under 25.5 -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +13 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Zion Williamson under 25.5 points -102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, March 29, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 1.
7:00 PM ET
We’ve bet against the Clippers from time to time, and it’s mostly worked. The Clippers are overrated, going 3-10 against the spread in their previous 13 games. The Magic, meanwhile, had been hot until a recent two-game skid, but this is a nice rebound spot for them in a statement game.
Player Prop: I like Victor Wembanyama under 20.5 points. People love to bet Wembanyama overs, but New York has one of the best paint defenses in the NFL. Wembanyama scored just 14 points in the previous matchup. The best number is under 20.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Magic -1 +107 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama under 20.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Thursday, March 28, 2024 (0-2, -$300)
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Celtics by 16.5.
7:30 PM ET
This is a high number, but it’s high for a reason. The Celtics have been ripping everyone to shreds, while the Hawks exerted way too much energy last night versus the Blazers. Four of their key players were on the court for 31-plus minutes, so they’ll have tired legs tonight.
Player Prop: I like Clint Capela under 11.5 points. The Celtics have a top-10 interior defense, which would explain why Capela scored four points against Boston in an earlier matchup this season. There’s also a high likelihood of a blowout. The best number is under 11.5 +105 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Celtics -16.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Clint Capela under 11.5 points +105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, March 27, 2024 (2-1, +$100)
Portland Trailblazers at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 10.
7:30 PM ET
We’re going with two picks today. The first is Portland. We backed the Trailblazers versus the Nuggets recently and were rewarded with a win. They’ve been playing better recently, so this spread is way too high. The Hawks are coming off a win versus the Celtics, so they could be deflated, especially with games against Boston and Milwaukee on the horizon.
NBA Pick: Trailblazers +10 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 6.5.
8:00 PM ET
The Thunder played a tough game against the Pelicans last night, with five of their players logging 31-plus minutes. It’ll be tough for them to get up for the Rockets, who are on a 12-1 ATS tear. The Rockets won’t have Alperen Sengun, but they’re 7-1 without Sengun this year.
Player Prop: I like Tyrese Haliburton under 19.5 points. We appeared to have the Haliburton prop correct on Monday until the Pacers re-inserted him into the game despite being up 20 with four minutes remaining. Hopefully we’ll have better luck tonight. I’m fading Haliburton again in this very difficult matchup. The best number is under 19.5 -125 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Rockets +6.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton under 19.5 points -125 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, March 26, 2024 (1-1, +$105)
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 9.
7:30 PM ET
Yesterday was brutal. The eight-point underdog Jazz were winning or tied for three quarters, yet lost by 10 at the end. And then, Tyrese Haliburton was under his point total when the Pacers brought him back into the game with four minutes remaining despite being up 20. His first shot was a made three. Unreal. Anyway, I like the Lakers tonight, as they’re desperate for wins, while the Bucks are sitting comfortably in second place in the East. LeBron James won’t play tonight, but the Lakers are 5-4 straight up without James, which includes wins over the Bucks and Celtics.
Player Prop: I like C.J. McCollum to go under 19.5 points. The Thunder defend point guards well, as evidenced by McCollum’s 12-point output in the previous meeting. McCollum has scored a ton of points in the past two games, so he’s due for some regression. The best number is under 19.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Lakers +9 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; -$210
NBA Player Prop: C.J. McCollum under 19.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Monday, March 25, 2024 (0-2, -$315)
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz.
Line: Mavericks by 8.
6:00 PM ET
This is a no-brainer for most people. The Mavericks have been very hot. The Jazz have struggled for the most part. How can you not bet Dallas? Well, we’re going with Utah. This is a nice revenge spot for the Jazz against the Mavericks, who may be unfocused because they have a huge game against Sacramento coming up tomorrow.
Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama is out, so I’m loading up another player prop. I like Tyrese Haliburton under 18.5 points. Haliburton has had issues getting to 20 ever since returning from injury. He has a tough matchup tonight after playing 33 minutes yesterday, so he’s unlikely to get there. The best number is under 18.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz +8 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton under 18.5 points -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Sunday, March 24, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat.
Line: Heat by 3.
6:00 PM ET
The banged-up Heat are 3-6 in their previous nine games, and their only wins have come against the Pistons (twice) and Cavaliers. This is a nice revenge spot for Cleveland.
Player Prop: I like Bam Adebayo under 17.5 points. Adebayo has scored 20-plus in three of his previous four games, so this low number may lure in some over bettors. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers have a great paint defense. The best number is under 17.5 +100 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +3 +107 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Bam Adebayo under 17.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, March 23, 2024 (2-0, +$315)
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: Nuggets by 12.
10:00 PM ET
The Trailblazers are not a good basketball team, but they’ve been a covering machine lately, going 9-4 against the spread in their previous 13 games. They’ve covered versus some good teams like the Thunder, Timberwolves and Knicks, so why can’t they cover against the Nuggets, who are not nearly the same team on the road? Also, there’s some chatter that Nikola Jokic could miss this game. I like the Blazers regardless, but Jokic’s absence will obviously be a huge boost for Portland.
Player Prop: I like Nicolas Claxton under 10.5 points. Claxton just had a big game, so this is a nice time to fade him, especially against one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. In two games against the Knicks this year, Claxton has six and eight points. There’s also a decent chance that this game will be a blowout. The best number is under 10.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Trailblazers +12 +107 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$215
NBA Player Prop: Nicolas Claxton under 10.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, March 22, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs.
Line: Spurs by 5.5.
8:00 PM ET
The Spurs should not be favored by this many points. They’re 4-11 in their previous 15 games and 2-6 in their past eight. The Grizzlies aren’t good either, but they’ve lost to some tough opponents lately. They’ve beaten some of their lesser competition in the past few weeks.
Player Prop: I like Jarrett Allen under 17.5 points. Allen has been hot lately, so it’s a good time to go against him. He has a very tough matchp against the Timberwolves, and there’s some blowout potential in this game. The best number is under 17.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +5.5 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen under 17.5 points -104 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, March 21, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Suns by 9.
10:30 PM ET
We bet the Suns yesterday and will be fading them tonight. Their three main guys played 35-plus minutes last night, so there will be fatigue against a well-rested Hawks team that recently beat the Clippers.
Player Prop: I like Jalen Brunson under 27.5 points. Brunson has been on a tear lately, but that has caused this number to be inflated. The Nuggets defend point guards extremely well, which would explain why Brunson had just 21 points in his previous matchup versus Denver. There’s also some blowout potential in this game. The best number is under 27.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hawks +9 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Brunson under 27.5 points -104 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, March 20, 2024 (1-0, +$200)
Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Suns by 9.5.
10:00 PM ET
The Suns are on a 2-8 ATS skid, but they’ve battled so many tough opponents lately. Conversely, the 76ers have had an easy schedule recently. This has caused a reduced number, yet the public is backing the bad team.
Player Prop: I like Bam Adebayo under 18.5 points. Adebayo has gone above 20 points in his previous three games, so the over 18.5 must look appealing. However, the Cavaliers play great interior defense and should keep Adebayo from dominating. The best number is under 18.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Suns -9.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Bam Adebayo under 18.5 points -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — No action; $0
NBA Picks for Tuesday, March 19, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Nuggets by 8.
9:00 PM ET
The Timberwolves went all out to beat the Jazz last night. Four of their players logged 33-plus minutes, and now they have to travel to play Denver on no rest. This can’t end well for Minnesota.
Player Prop: I like Dennis Schroder under 13.5 points. Schroder has been playing more minutes lately, and he’s been about 50-50 to land over 13 points. It’ll be tough for him to do that tonight because the Pelicans defend point guards better than anyone. In Schroder’s previous meeting against the Pelicans, he scored a grand total of zero points. The best number is under 13.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -8 +107 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Dennis Schroder under 13.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, March 18, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz.
Line: Timberwolves by 5.5.
9:00 PM ET
The Timberwolves are banged up and have been on a 3-7 ATS skid as a result. Making matters worse for them, they have to battle the Nuggets tomorrow. This is a revenge game for the Jazz, who just lost by 19 to Minnesota on Saturday.
Player Prop: I like Jalen Johnson under 17.5 points. Johnson has been on a tear lately, but this is the second half of a back-to-back, and the Lakers defend fours rather well. The best number is under 17.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz +5.5 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Johnson under 17.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Sunday, March 17, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Heat by 5.
3:00 PM ET
The Heat are banged up and have been on a 2-5 ATS skid as a result. They continue to be overvalued, so Detroit looks like a great play today. The Pistons have been a covering machine since the new year, going 24-13 against the spread since Christmas.
Player Prop: I like Victor Wembanyama under 21.5 points. Everyone loves betting on Wembanyama, but he has a very difficult matchup tonight versus the Nets, who do a great job against centers. Wembanyama went under in the first matchup, and I think that happens again. The best number is under 21.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pistons +5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama under 21.5 points -106 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Saturday, March 16, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Washington Bullets at Chicago Bulls.
Line: Bulls by 10.5.
8:00 PM ET
The Bullets are a horrific basketball team, going 4-8 against the spread in their previous 12 games. The Bulls haven’t had a great record recently either, but they’ve played against so many tough opponents. They should be able to clobber Washington tonight.
Player Prop: I like Keyonte George under 18.5 points. George has been on fire lately, so everyone will want to bet his over. However, he’s on a second leg of a back-to-back and will be battling the team that has the best defense against point guards. The best number is under 18.5 -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bulls -10.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Keyonte George under 18.5 points -102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, March 15, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans.
Line: Pelicans by 6.5.
8:00 PM ET
Aside from their most recent slip-up, the Pelicans have been on a tear, as Zion Williamson has caught fire. The Clippers, conversely, played last night with five players logging 31 or more minutes. They’ll be too tired to battle the Pelicans tonight.
Player Prop: I like Kawhi Leonard under 23.5 points. Not even factoring in a lack of rest, Leonard is a great under bet against a tremendous defense. In three games against the Pelicans this year, Leonard has scored 20, 19, and 15 points. The best number is under 23.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pelicans -6.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Kawhi Leonard under 23.5 points -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, March 14, 2024 (0-2, -$305)
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 5.
7:30 PM ET
Jacob Camenker gave me the heads up about this terrible spot for the Celtics. They’re coming home from a long trip on the West Coast, and now they have to deal with a talented team that wants revenge from a recent defeat. Jayson Tatum played way too many minutes in a couple of games recently, so with that and the jet lag, the Celtics could be in for a long night.
Player Prop: I like DeAndre Ayton under 17.5 points. Ayton went nuts with 33 points last night, but he also logged 40 minutes. I imagine he’ll be exhausted against the top paint defense in the NBA, so he’ll struggle to score. The best number is under 17.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Suns +5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: DeAndre Ayton under 17.5 points -104 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Wednesday, March 13, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: Hawks by 4.5.
10:00 PM ET
The Hawks have played good basketball lately, beating the Knicks, Cavaliers and Magic recently. They’ll be able to handle this atrocious Portland team with ease and cover this low number.
Player Prop: I like Tyrese Haliburton under 19.5 points. The Bulls defend point guards very well, and Haliburton could have tired legs after playing 36 minutes last night. The best number is under 19.5 -125 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hawks -4.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton under 19.5 points -125 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, March 13, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: Hawks by 4.5.
10:00 PM ET
The Hawks have played good basketball lately, beating the Knicks, Cavaliers and Magic recently. They’ll be able to handle this atrocious Portland team with ease and cover this low number.
Player Prop: I like Tyrese Haliburton under 19.5 points. The Bulls defend point guards very well, and Haliburton could have tired legs after playing 36 minutes last night. The best number is under 19.5 -125 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hawks -4.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton under 19.5 points -125 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, March 12, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz.
Line: Celtics by 5.
9:00 PM ET
The Celtics clobbered the Blazers by 20-plus points last night, so you’d think that many of their starters didn’t play that much. That, however, is not the case. Six Boston players logged 30-plus minutes, so the team will be fatigued tonight, especially given that it’ll be shorthanded without Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. The Celtics could also have one eye on their next matchup against the Suns.
Player Prop: I like Victor Wembanyama under 22.5 points. The Rockets have a great paint defense, which is why in three games against them this year, Wembanyama has scored 21, 15, and 10 points. The best number is under 22.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz +5 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama under 22.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, March 11, 2024 (1-0-1, +$100)
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Suns by 6.
7:30 PM ET
We faded the Cavaliers last night, but we’ll be backing them today. None of their starters played more than 30 minutes yesterday, so there isn’t any worry about fatigue. Cleveland was saving its energy for this game, and the Suns have a game coming up against the Celtics.
Player Prop: I like Jusuf Nurkic under 11.5 rebounds. We lost on the hook with Nurkic a few nights ago, but I like him to go under again, as the Cavaliers are a great rebounding team and should keep him off the glass. The best number is under 11.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +6 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Push; $0
NBA Player Prop: Jusuf Nurkic under 11.5 rebounds -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, March 10, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Cavaliers by 6.5.
7:00 PM ET
We faded the Nets last night, but we’re backing them today. They’re desperate for a win, while Cleveland is in a tough spot. The Cavaliers are coming off an overtime win versus Minnesots and will be playing tomorrow against the Suns, so they could have one eye on that game.
Player Prop: I like Jarrett Allen under 19.5 points. Allen is coming off a 33-point performance, so people will want to bet his over. However, the Nets defend well in the paint. They limited Allen to 14 and 12 points in two meetings earlier this year. The best number is under 19.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nets +6.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen under 19.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, March 9, 2024 (1-2, -$100)
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 7.5.
7:30 PM ET
There was some speculation that Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George wouldn’t play this afternoon, but they’ll both be on the court. However, I expect the effort level to be low with a game against the Bucks looming tomorrow. Also, the Clippers are on a 3-9 ATS skid and remain overvalued.
NBA Pick: Bulls +7.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets.
Line: Nets by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET
Speaking of teams on skids, the Nets are overvalued as well on their 5-9-1 ATS funk. The Hornets have done a good job of keeping many of their games close, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they managed to pull the upset tonight.
Player Prop: I like Jusuf Nurkic under 10.5 rebounds. The Celtics are one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA, so it’s no surprise that in 10 career games against the Celtics in which Nurkic played 25 or more minutes, he’s had double-digits rebounds only three times. The best number is under 10.5 +100 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hornets +5.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jusuf Nirkic +100 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Friday, March 8, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Cavaliers by 3.
7:30 PM ET
Let’s try fading the Timberwolves again. They put a bit too much into the Pacers game last night, with Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert playing 38 and 40 minutes, respectively. They’ll have tired legs against the Cavaliers tonight.
Player Prop: I like Jimmy Butler under 22.5 points. Butler played 38 minutes last night, so he could be exhausted by the second half. Also, the Thunder defend wings well and could easily have a huge lead in this game, prompting Miami to sit Butler in the fourth quarter. The best number is under 22.5 +100 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jimmy Butler under 22.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, March 7, 2024 (0-2, -$300)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 2.
7:30 PM ET
The Timberwolves have failed to cover their previous five games. They lost to the Clippers in a very favorable spot and then struggled to beat an injury-ravaged Portland team. Now, Minnesota goes on the road for the first time since Feb. 15. The Pacers should be able to win this game.
Player Prop: I like Rudy Gobert under 15.5 points. We’re seeing an inflated number because Karl-Anthony Towns is out, but the last time Gobert played without Towns, he scored just 13 points against the Spurs’ dreadful defense. The Pacers play good defense in the paint, so Gobert should be held to fewer than 16 points. The best number is under 15.5 +100 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers -2 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Rudy Gobert under 15.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, March 6, 2024 (1-2, -$120)
Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets.
Line: Clippers by 7.
7:30 PM ET
As far as back-to-back games are concerned, this is a very difficult spot for the Rockets. They’re coming off a win in which four of their players were on the court for 36-plus minutes. They’ll have tired legs against the Clippers, who have Paul George rounding into shape as he returns from injury.
NBA Pick: Clippers -7 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 1.
8:00 PM ET
We’re fading the other Los Angeles team tonight. The Lakers just had some big wins against the Thunder and Clippers, but they were in good spots in those games. They were also very fortunate in that comeback versus the Clippers. I expect things to turn against them tonight, as the Kings aren’t in a negative situation and should be able to win as a consequence.
Player Prop: This is from the first game, but I like Alperen Sengun under 21.5 points. He scored 46 points last night, so everyone’s going to want to bet his over. However, Sengun has gone over 21 points just twice in his previous 12 games, and this is a much tougher matchup than the one he had versus San Antonio. The best number is under 21.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Kings +1 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Alperen Sengun under 21.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Tuesday, March 5, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets.
Line: Rockets by 7.
8:00 PM ET
The Rockets are coming off a big win against a distracted Suns team, and they have to battle the Clippers tomorrow, so this is a rough spot for a team that’s 3-9 straight up in its previous 12 games. Victor Wembanyama is listed as questionable, but it’s only for “shoulder soreness,” so he should play with no game scheduled for tomorrow.
Player Prop: I like Jayson Tatum under 28.5 points. The Cavaliers are a great defensive team that has limited Tatum in two games, holding him to point totals that are less than his season average. The best number is under 28.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Spurs +7 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jayson Tatum under 28.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, March 4, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 1.
10:30 PM ET
Our winning streak was bound to come to an end at some point, but maybe we’ll be able to start a new one. I like the Lakers tonight. They’ve ramped up their minutes in an effort to make the playoffs, while the Thunder are coming off an exhausting win over Phoenix late last night. Four Thunder players were on the court for 30-plus minutes, so they could be feeling it tonight, especially after travel.
Player Prop: I like DeAndre Ayton under 15.5 points. We faded Ayton in this matchup recently, and I want to do so again. The Timberwolves are a great defensive team, and they’ll be motivated after yesterday’s loss. Also, this game could easily be a blowout, negating any fourth-quarter run for Ayton. The best number is under 15.5 +100 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Lakers -1 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: DeAndre Ayton under 15.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — No action
NBA Picks for Sunday, March 3, 2024 (0-2, -$305)
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 3.
3:30 PM ET
We’re going to fade the Clippers again. They haven’t played very well recently, so this number is short. The Timberwolves are a hungry team with lots to prove, so this seems like a statement game for them.
Player Prop: I like Kawhi Leonard under 24.5 points. The Timberwolves are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, which would explain why Leonard had just 18 points in the previous matchup versus Minnesota. The best number is under 24.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Kawhi Leonard under 24.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Saturday, March 2, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Suns by 9.
9:00 PM ET
The Rockets’ recent results haven’t been great, but they’ve played a very difficult schedule lately. Granted, this is another tough opponent, but this spread is so high. You have to wonder about the Suns’ incentive in this game as well; they just beat the Rockets two nights ago, and they have to battle the Thunder tomorrow.
Player Prop: I like Anthony Davis under 12.5 rebounds. The Nuggets are a great rebounding team, which would explain why Davis logged nine and eight rebounds against Denver in two matchups this year. Also, Davis has clocked in a ton of minutes in some recent games and is dealing with sore ankles, so perhaps he’ll get some more rest tonight. The best number is under 12.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Rockets +9 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Anthony Davis under 12.5 rebounds -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, March 1, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 10.
7:00 PM ET
This spread is ridiculous. The 76ers are 4-8 straight up and against the spread since losing Joel Embiid. They also haven’t won a single game by more than seven points without Embiid. Yet, this spread is in the double digits. I know the Hornets played last night, but only two starters logged more than 30 minutes. Also, Charlotte is 6-4 against the spread on the second leg of back-to-backs this year.
Player Prop: I like Tyrese Haliburton under 18.5 points. Haliburton has been in a swoon lately, going under 18.5 points in nine of his previous 12 games. It doesn’t project to get any better tonight because the Pelicans are a great defensive team. The best number is under 18.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hornets +10 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton under 18.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks.
Line: Warriors by 5.
7:30 PM ET
We’re continuing our fade of the Knicks, who are now 6-7 straight up and 4-9 against the spread since Julius Randle suffered an injury. The Warriors, meanwhile, would have a much better record than they do now had Draymon Green not been suspended earlier in the season.
Player Prop: I like Alperen Sengun under 10.5 rebounds. The Suns are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, so they should be able to keep Sengun off the glass. The best number is under 10.5 -135 at BetMGM. There’s also under 9.5 +110 at FanDuel, but Sengun has so many games with exactly 10 rebounds, so I’d rather be safe. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Warriors -5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Alperen Sengun under 10.5 rebounds -135 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 3.
10:00 PM ET
I’ve recently talked about how the Clippers are fading a bit during this mid-season swoon of theirs. They are 1-6 against the spread in their previous seven games, and they’ll be without Paul George tonight.
Player Prop: I like Jarrett Allen under 16.5 points. Allen typically has trouble against Nikola Vucevic, scoring 13 and 10 in his previous two matchups against him. Allen also played 33 minutes last night, so there could be some fatigue. The best number is under 16.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Lakers +3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen under 16.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024 (1-0, +$210)
New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks.
Line: Pelicans by 4.
7:30 PM ET
We’re fading New York again tonight. The Knicks are now 6-6 straight up and 4-8 against the spread without Julius Randle. They also must be exhausted from last night’s game in which three starters logged 34-plus minutes, including two with 40-plus minutes.
Player Prop: I like Jalen Brunson under 30.5 points. The Pelicans are great at shutting down point guards – he scored just 14 points against them in the previous matchup – and he logged 40 minutes last night, so he has to be exhausted. The best number is under 30.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pelicans -4 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Jalen Brunson under 30.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — No action; $0
NBA Picks for Monday, Feb. 26, 2024 (3-0, +$500)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks.
Line: Knicks by 10.5.
7:30 PM ET
We have two sides tonight. The first is Detroit once again. I’ve been saying this for a while, but the Pistons are underrated. They have a terrible record, but they are often competitive. They’re 13-5 against the spread in their previous 18 games, and their ATS record could be so much better than that. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 5-6 since Julius Randle went down, and they have just three wins of more than 10 points.
NBA Pick: Pistons +10.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Kings by 6.
10:00 PM ET
We backed the Kings last night, but we’re going to fade them today. They had a huge victory versus the Clippers, but it came at a price with their four main guys logging 33 or more minutes. Battling the underrated Heat on no rest will be difficult.
Player Prop: I like Domantas Sabonis under 19.5 points. He has to be exhausted from last night, and Miami provides an extremely difficult matchup. The best number is under 19.5 -111 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Heat +6 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Domantas Sabonis under 19.5 points -111 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, Feb. 25, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 4.5.
9:30 PM ET
The Clippers have tons of talent on their team, but they’re in a mid-season funk of sorts. They’ve covered just one of their previous six games and appear to be overvalued against a gritty Kings team that recently beat the Nuggets.
Player Prop: I like Nikola Vucevic under 18.5 points. He’s been hot lately, but there’s bound to be regression to the mean, especially against the Pelicans, who have a great interior defense. The last time Vucevic played against the Pelicans, he scored a whopping six points. The best number is under 18.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Kings +4.5 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Nikola Vucevic under 18.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024 (1-1, +$95)
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Magic by 7.
9:00 PM ET
We’ve bet the Pistons a couple of times recently. They have a terrible record, but they’re better than that. They’re 12-5 against the spread in their previous 17 games, and their past three non-covers were all very close to the spread.
Player Prop: I like Karl-Anthony Towns under 21.5 points. He’s been about 50 percent to go under that total in the past dozen games, yet he’s battling a Nets team that is pretty solid defensively in the paint. Also, Towns had a big game last night, so he could be limited on a back-to-back. In every single back-to-back game this year, Towns has scored equal or fewer points than he did in the previous game. The best number is under 21.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pistons +7 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns under 21.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Friday, Feb. 23, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 5.
9:00 PM ET
Last night was a disaster, but hopefully we can rebound. Speaking of having to rebound, the Bucks were just 3-7 heading into the All-Star break. They’re an overrated and poorly coached team. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, have something to prove.
Player Prop: I like Tyrese Maxey under 25.5 points. This is about his seasonal average, yet he’s battling a Cavaliers team that defends guards extremely well. Maxey is coming off a 40-minute outing last night, so he could be a bit limited in this game. The best number is under 25.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Maxey under 25.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Suns by 1.
7:30 PM ET
The Suns have more talent than their record indicates, and that’s because they’ve taken one too many games lightly in the first half of the regular season. Given how long the season is, however, I can’t blame them. It’s the second half of the season now though, so I expect Phoenix to turn up the heat, especially in tougher matchups like this one.
NBA Pick: Suns -1 +102 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz.
Line: Jazz by 10.
9:00 PM ET
We have a second pick tonight. I’m going with the Jazz even though they’re favored by 10. The public is all over Charlotte, probably because the Hornets have won three in a row. However, they’ve beaten pedestrian teams during that stretch. The last real opponent they battled, the Bucks, destroyed them, 120-84. Also, the Hornets lost all the momentum they had with this absurdly long break.
Player Prop: I like Jarrett Allen under 15.5 points. This is about his seasonal average, yet he’s battling a Magic team that defends the paint very well. In three games against the Magic this year, Allen has scored 14, four, and eight points. The best number is under 15.5 -128 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz -10 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen under 15.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz.
Line: Jazz by 1.
9:00 PM ET
The Warriors played a tough game against the Clippers last night. They lost, but many of their starters logged major minutes, so I could see them taking this game lightly tonight. The Jazz are coming off a blowout loss to the Lakers, so they’ll be motivated to rebound.
Player Prop: I like DeAndre Ayton under 14.5 points. He scored 22 points in this matchup a couple of nights ago, but the Timberwolves were coming off an exhausting back-to-back. Minnesota’s fresh legs will help the team use its great paint defense to shut down Ayton in what easily could be a blowout. The best number is under 14.5 -128 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz -1 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: DeAndre Ayton under 14.5 points -128 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 6.
9:00 PM ET
We faded the Nuggets a couple of nights ago against the Bucks, and won. Denver was humiliated, so the team will be extra focused tonight, especially after losing to Sacramento recently. Speaking of the Kings, three of their starters played 37-plus minutes last night, and now they have to play a game in altitude on no rest. This seems like a very difficult spot, even with Jamal Murray likely sidelined for Denver.
Player Prop: I like Wendell Carter under 12.5 points. This is slightly above his seasonal average of 11.5, yet he’s battling a Knicks team that has a great paint defense. Carter has failed to score more than 10 points in three of his previous five games, and he’s coming off a 31-minute outing last night, so he could be a bit tired, given that he usually logs 26-28 minutes. The best number is under 12.5 -115 at ESPNBet, and if you don’t have that, you can get under 12.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -6 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Wendell Carter under 12.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – ESPNBet — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 7.5.
8:00 PM ET
We bet the Bucks last night, but we’ll be fading them today. They’re coming off a great statement victory over the Nuggets, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they punted this game. The Heat, conversely, have a lot to prove, and they’ve been playing much better since getting healthier.
Player Prop: I like Domantas Sabonis under 13.5 rebounds. This is slightly above his seasonal average of 13.2, yet he’s battling a Phoenix team that cleans up the glass better than any other team. In two of his three matchups against the Suns, Sabonis has had 12 or fewer rebounds. The best number is under 13.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Heat +7.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Domantas Sabonis under 13.5 rebounds -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Monday, Feb. 12, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 1.
8:00 PM ET
I know Khris Middleton is out, but I still love the Bucks tonight. The Nuggets will be better come May and June, but they’re so poor on the road. They’re 10-17 against the spread, and they’ve been outscored overall, so it will be difficult for them to win in Milwaukee.
Player Prop: I like Jaren Jackson under 26.5 points. He’s been on a scoring tear recently, but he’s had a ton of easy matchups. The Pelicans are great at defending the paint, so Jackson could have issues tonight. The best number is under 26.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bucks -1 +102 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. under 26.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024 (1-1, +$90)
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 3.5.
7:30 PM ET
Yesterday, I wrote that not all back-to-back games are created equal. The Thunder played yesterday, but they got debacled. No one played 30 minutes. It was an embarrassing showing, so I think they’ll play for pride today. Meanwhile, the Kings are coming off a big statement win over the Nuggets and could be flat as a result.
Player Prop: I like Bam Adebayo to go under 10.5 rebounds. This is exactly his seasonal average, yet he’s battling one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. In two matchups against the Celtics this year, Adebayo has grabbed five and seven rebounds. Also, with Jimmy Butler out, this could be a blowout, so Adebayo may not see fourth-quarter action. The best number is under 10.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Thunder -3.5 -101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Bam Adebayo under 10.5 rebounds -108 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Picks for Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024 (1-1, +$75)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors.
Line: Cavaliers by 9.
7:30 PM ET
Not all back-to-back games are created equal. The Raptors played a very difficult game last night versus the Rockets in which five players logged 34 or more minutes. They’ll be exhausted against a superior team that has no reason not to be focused for this game. The Raptors beat the Cavaliers in their previous meeting, so Cleveland may want revenge.
Player Prop: I like Nikola Vucevic to go under 18.5 points. He’s hit at least 20 in four straight games, so there might be some hesitation. However, he’s battling the Magic, who have a great paint defense. In two games against New Orleans this year, Vucevic has scored 17 and 10 points. The best number is under 18.5 -125 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -9 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Nikola Vucevic under 18.5 points -125 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$125
NBA Picks for Friday, Feb. 9, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Kings by 3.
7:00 PM ET
It was pretty obvious that the Kings were looking ahead to this game when they lost to the Pistons two nights ago. I think they’ll be up to the challenge against the Nuggets, who played a tough game against the Lakers last night.
Player Prop: I like Anthony Davis to go under 26.5 points. His seasonal average is less than that at 25.2, and he’s battling the Pelicans, who have a great paint defense. In two games against New Orleans this year, Davis has scored 20 and 16 points. The best number is under 26.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Kings -3 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Anthony Davis under 26.5 points -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic.
Line: Magic by 10.
7:00 PM ET
The Spurs were blown out by the Heat last night, but as I wrote a couple of days ago, there’s a big difference between Orlando and Miami despite their similar records. This should be a close game. And note that the Spurs shouldn’t be fatigued because no one on the team logged more than 32 minutes last night, with only two players even crossing 30.
Player Prop: I like Nic Claxton to go under 12.5 points. His seasonal average is just 10.4, and he’s battling the Cavaliers, who have a great paint defense. In two games against Cleveland this year, Claxton has a total of 20 points. The best number is under 12.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Spurs +10 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Nic Claxton under 12.5 points -114 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Kings by 12.5.
10:00 PM ET
I’ve said this recently, but the Pistons have been a covering machine despite owning a terrible record. They’ve stayed within 11 points of the Clippers, Bucks (twice), Timberwolves and Cavaliers in the past month. They should be able to hang with the Kings, who might be distracted with a battle against the Nuggets coming up in two days.
Player Prop: I like Victor Wembanyama to go under 21.5 points. His seasonal average is lower than that (20.4), and he hasn’t gone over 21 points in his past three games. Now, he gets a Miami team that has a great paint defense in a game that could easily be a blowout. The best number is under 21.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pistons +12.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama under 21.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 6, 2024 (1-1, +$85)
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat.
Line: Heat by 3.5.
7:30 PM ET
Yesterday sucked. We had the Hawks +4, and they lost by five. We also had James Harden under 9.5 assists, and he had 10.
Let’s rebound with the Heat. Miami and Orlando have similar records, but the Heat have dealt with a ton of injuries this season. They’re finally all healthy, so I expect them to do quite well moving forward. With that in mind, this spread is short of what it should be.
Player Prop: I like Nikola Vucevic to go under 26.5 points + rebounds. His combined seasonal average (27.7) is a bit higher, but this is an incredibly difficult matchup. Minnesota just held Alperen Sengun to 25 points + rebounds even though his combined seasonal average is 30.9. The best number is under 26.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Heat -3.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Nikola Vucevic under 26.5 points + rebounds -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Monday, Feb. 5, 2024 (0-3, -$450)
Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Clippers by 4.
7:30 PM ET
The Clippers have been on fire, but this is a tough scheduling spot for them. They’re coming off a tough win versus Miami last night, making this the second of a back-to-back and the third game in four nights. This is also the final game of their East Coast road trip. The Hawks, meanwhile, have beaten the Suns and Warriors recently, so they should be able to pull the upset.
Player Prop: I like James Harden to go under 9.5 assists. His seasonal average is 8.5, and he has failed to hit double-digit assists in three of his five previous games. The Hawks do a great job of limiting assists to opposing point guards, and the Clippers’ scoring could be down tonight because of the fatigue. The best number is under 9.5 -125 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
Player Prop: I’m betting the Miles Bridges under 24.5 points. His average is 20.7, and he has gone over 21 just once in his previous seven games. The Lakers have a great paint defense, so they should be able to limit Bridges rather well. The best number is under 24.5 -125 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hawks +4 -101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: James Harden under 9.5 assists -125 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$125
NBA Player Prop: Miles Bridges under 24.5 points -125 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$125
NBA Picks for Sunday, Feb. 4, 2024 (2-1, +$190)
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz.
Line: Jazz by 3.
8:00 PM ET
This spread is begging for the public to bet Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off a game last night in which they erased a 24-point deficit, so they must be exhausted. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton all logged 38-plus minutes, so it wouldn’t completely shock me if some of them rested for this game. Also, consider that the Bucks have been a money pit this year. They’re 4-13 against the spread in their previous 17 games!
Player Prop: I like Terry Rozier’s under points prop, which is 15.5. His average on the season is north of 20, but he’s averaging just 10.8 points per game since joining the Heat. In fact, he’s gone over 15 points only once. The Clippers play outstanding defense against guards, so it’ll be difficult for Rozier to score 16-plus. The best number is under 15.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Player Prop: I’m adding Alperen Sengun under points + rebounds. The Timberwolves have a great paint defense, and Sengun’s stats have decreased recently. He had just 24 points + rebounds the last time he played against Minnesota. The best number is under 28.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Terry Rozier under 15.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$110
NBA Player Prop: Alperen Sengun under 28.5 points + rebounds -104 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, Feb. 3, 2024 (2-1, $0)
Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls.
Line: Bulls by 2.5.
8:00 PM ET
This is a tough scheduling spot for the Kings. It’s their second of a back-to-back and third in four nights. The Bulls have covered five of their previous seven, so I like their chances of continuing to play well.
Player Prop: I like Anthony Davis’ under points prop, which is 26.5. His average is 25.3, so he’d have to exceed his average for us to lose against the Knicks, who have one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. Davis has gone over 26 points just once in his previous six games. The best number is under 26.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
I’m adding an under points prop on Victor Wembanyama, which currently sits at 20.5. The Cavaliers have one of the best paint defenses in the NBA, so they should be able to hold Wembanyama under his seasonal average, which is also 20.5. The best number is under 20.5 +100 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bulls -2.5 +103 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Anthony Davis under 26.5 points -113 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama under 20.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, Feb. 2, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Warriors by 7.5.
8:00 PM ET
It’s nice that I don’t have to change half the copy here because I’m once again going with the Grizzlies +7.5 with the same vig of +101. The Grizzlies have played extremely well lately, covering their previous six and 10 of their past 14. The Warriors, conversely, are 5-10 straight up in their previous 15 games. They don’t deserve to be favored by this many points on the road against a competitive team.
Player Prop: I like Kyle Kuzma’s under points prop, which is 22.5. His average is 22.0, yet he’s battling the Heat, a team that has one of the best paint defenses in the league. Also, Kuzma has failed to score more than 22 points in six of his previous nine games. The best number is under 22.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +7.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Kyle Kuzma under 22.5 points -110 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Cavaliers by 7.5.
8:00 PM ET
We’re going to fade the Cavaliers again. Their spreads have been inflated too much, creating some great value with the opposing underdog. Memphis has been a live dog lately, covering their previous five and nine of their past 13. The Cavaliers could be tired from last night’s close call against the Pistons.
Player Prop: Even though I like Memphis to cover, I’m going to fade Jaren Jackson Jr. once again. His points prop continues to be inflated. The best number is under 25.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +7.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. under 25.5 points +100 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024 (2-0, +$310)
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers.
Line: Cavaliers by 12.
7:00 PM ET
The Cavaliers have been on a tear lately, but this spread has gotten out of control. Cleveland also plays against Memphis tomorrow night, so I’m not sure the team will be 100-percent focused for this game. The Pistons don’t have a good record by any means, but they’ve been a covering machine as of late.
Player Prop: We’ve gotten screwed on our previous two center props with opposing injuries. Hopefully that doesn’t happen tonight. I like Nic Claxton to go under 11.5 rebounds. His season average is 10.4, so we’re already over that. The Suns clean up the glass well, too. Claxton had just seven rebounds the last time he played against the Suns. The best number is under 11.5 -105 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pistons +12 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Nic Claxton under 11.5 rebounds -105 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2024 (1-1, +$85)
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 7.5.
7:30 PM ET
I’m confused as to why this spread is so high. The Celtics are short-handed with Al Horford out and Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet potentially sidelined as well. They also must be exhausted from last night’s comeback victory against the Pelicans. The Pacers have been hot lately, and they’ll be getting Tyrese Haliburton back into the lineup.
Player Prop: Clint Capela’s season points average is 11.3. His prop tonight is 11.5, yet he’s battling one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. He’s gone over 11 points just once in his previous six games, so I like him to go under again. The best number is under 11.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pacers +7.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Clint Capela under 11.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Monday, Jan. 29, 2024 (1-2, -$35)
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: 76ers by 9.5.
10:00 PM ET
The 76ers are pretty banged up and have a tougher game tomorrow night against the Warriors. I could see them taking it easy against the Blazers, who have been more competitive lately.
Player Prop: The Suns are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. Bam Adebayo’s rebounding prop is exactly his season average (10.5), so it shouldn’t be too hard to ask him to go under. He grabbed 10 boards in the previous matchup against the Suns, and that’s when everyone was out and his usage was way up. The best number is under 10.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Player Prop: The Celtics have an amazing defense, especially against fours. Zion Williamson is unlikely to score more than 21.5 points, which is about his average. Plus, there’s always a chance this game is a blowout. The best number is under 21.5 -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Trailblazers +9.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Bam Adebayo under 10.5 rebounds -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Player Prop: Zion Williamson under 21.5 points -122 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Thunder by 13.
2:00 PM ET
The Pistons played most of their starters 35-plus minutes yesterday in an exhausting game against the Bullets, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Now, they have an early game against a far superior Thunder team that has been demolishing its competition. I don’t see this game being close.
Player Prop: Jaren Jackson’s points prop is 30.5. That’s an insane number, given that he’s gotten more than 30 points just twice since Dec. 15. I know other players are out for the Grizzlies, but the Pacers have an extremely strong paint defense. Also, this game has major blowout potential. The best number is under 30.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Thunder -13 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jaren Jackson under 30.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Kings by 4.
9:00 PM ET
Luka Doncic had an amazing 73-point performance last night, so I imagine everyone’s going to want to bet him tonight, especially as an underdog. However, I imagine Doncic and his team will be exhausted after their track meet against the Hawks, so I like the Kings to cover tonight.
Player Prop: Joel Embiid’s under rebounds prop looks good. Embiid has gone over 10 rebounds just once in his previous seven games, and Denver cleans up the glass extremely well. Embiid had just seven rebounds in this very matchup recently. The best number is under 10.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
Player Prop: Kawhi Leonard’s points prop makes no sense to me. It’s 26.5, yet he has scored 27 or more in just one of his previous 10 games. His average on the season is just 23.5. And Boston has a great defense. The best number is under 26.5 -122 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Kings -4 +102 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Joel Embiid under 10.5 rebounds +100 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — No action; $0
NBA Player Prop: Kawhi Leonard under 26.5 points -122 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Friday, Jan. 26, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans.
Line: Pelicans by 1.5.
8:00 PM ET
The Thunder have won four in a row and eight of their previous 10. Impressive stuff. However, most of the opponents they’ve beaten have been poor or injury-ravaged teams. This is a step up in competition compared to the opponents in most of their victories. Also, this is Oklahoma City’s third game in four nights, so there could be some fatigue.
Player Prop: Damian Lillard averages 11.1 rebounds + assists per game, so that’s a bit above his prop tonight of 10.5. However, the Cavaliers shut down point guards with ease. In three matchups against Cleveland this year, Lillard’s rebounds + assists totals have been: 5, 7, and 6. The best number is under 10.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Pelicans -1.5 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Damian Lillard under 10.5 rebounds + assists -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets.
Line: Timberwolves by 3.
8:00 PM ET
The Timberwolves played a tough game last night in which most of their starters played 35-plus minutes. It’s going to be tough for them to muster the same energy tonight against the rested Nets.
Player Prop: Joel Embiid just scored 70 points, so it’s reasonable to expect some regression to the mean. He averages 47.7 points + rebounds per game, yet the line today is 49.5. The Pacers defend the paint extremely well, so I like the Embiid under. The best number is under 49.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nets +3 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Joel Embiid under 49.5 -118 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Portland Trailblazers at Houston Rockets.
Line: Rockets by 11.
8:00 PM ET
The Blazers have to be exhausted from last night’s tight battle against the Thunder. It’ll be tough for them to muster the same sort of energy against the Rockets, whom they match up poorly against because they can’t defend bigs or point guards.
Player Prop: Speaking of being incapable of defending point guards, Fred VanVleet’s points + assists looks great tonight. VanVleet averages 25.8 points + assists, yet the line is just 24.5 despite him being in a great matchup. The best number is over 24.5 -1115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Rockets -11 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Fred VanVleet over 24.5 points + assists -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Nuggets by 5.5.
7:00 PM ET
The Pacers are in a tough scheduling spot. This is their fourth game in six nights, and they’ll be short-handed with Tyrese Haliburton ruled out. The Nuggets, conversely, are pretty well rested. I could also see Nikola Jokic being motivated after seeing Joel Embiid score 70 last night.
Player Prop: I like Jokic, but the best matchup in this game belongs to Aaron Gordon, who went for 20 points and 10 rebounds the last time he played Indiana. The Pacers are very weak to power forwards, so Gordon should have another big game in the points + rebounds categories. The best number is over 21.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -5.5 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Aaron Gordon over 21.5 points + rebounds -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Monday, Jan. 22, 2024 (1-1, +$95)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic.
Line: Cavaliers by 3.
7:00 PM ET
Franz Wagner is back for the Magic, but playing a second leg of a back-to-back could have some stress on his endurance. This could mean that the Cavaliers win. Cleveland has been hot lately, so it should get another win tonight.
Player Prop: The Hornets have a horrific interior defense, so Rudy Gobert should be able to do anything he pleases tonight. Gobert averages 27.7 points + rebounds per game, so all he needs to do is get to his average in this easy matchup. The best number is over 27.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -3 +104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
NBA Player Prop: Rudy Gobert over 27.5 points + rebounds -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$115
NBA Picks for Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024 (1-2, -$300)
Denver Nuggets at Washington Bullets.
Line: Nuggets by 13.5.
7:00 PM ET
I was wrong about the Bullets last night. Their loss to the Spurs was pathetic, and now they have to battle a Denver team that has battled nothing but tough opponents recently. This is a huge step down in competition for the Nuggets, who should be able to win this game easily.
Player Prop: We won with Isaiah Hartenstein’s rebounding prop several nights ago because the Bullets can’t rebound. This is why I like Nikola Jokic’s rebounding prop tonight. Jokic averages 11.9 rebounds per game, so all he needs to do is hit his average against the worst-rebounding team in the league. The best number is over 11.5 -125 at ESPN Bet. If you don’t have that, you can find -129 at Caesars and then -130 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -13.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Nikola Jokic over 11.5 rebounds -125 (1 Unit) – ESPN Bet — Correct; +$100
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets.
Line: Celtics by 11.5.
7:30 PM ET
The Rockets used up all their energy in an overtime battle against the Jazz last night. It’s going to be tough for them to summon the strength to battle the Celtics tonight. Boston just crushed Houston by 32. If the Rockets had more time and energy, they could maybe tilt things in their favor in this game, but that’ll be difficult considering the circumstances.
Player Prop: Just one player prop today, which I have listed above.
NBA Pick: Celtics -11.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Picks for Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024 (2-2, -$5)
San Antonio Spurs at Washington Bullets.
Line: Bullets by 3.
7:00 PM ET
The Bullets have been terrible this year with their seven victories, but they’ve done well against the spread lately, posting a 3-1-1 record in their previous five games. I like them against the Spurs, who played a tough game against the Hornets last night.
The Spurs are terrible against point guards. Tyus Jones is coming off a poor performance, but he should play well tonight. Tyus Jones is averaging 12.5 points per game, so all he needs to do is hit his average versus a tired team that doesn’t defend well in the first place. The best number is over 12.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bullets -3 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Tyus Jones over 12.5 points -112 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Cavaliers by 3.5.
7:30 PM ET
The Hawks used up all their energy in their comeback against the Heat yesterday on Udonis Haslem jersey retirement night. This is a tough turn-around versus the Cavaliers, who are on fire with six consecutive victories.
Player Prop: Atlanta struggles against bigs, so I could see Jarrett Allen going off. I like Allen over 17.5 points. Without Evan Mobley this season, Allen is averaging 18.1 points per game, so we’re asking him to hit his average against a tired Atlanta team that can’t defend the paint. The best number is over 17.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
If you’re looking for the best DFS content on the Web, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off!
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen over 17.5 points -106 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$105
NBA Picks for Friday, Jan. 19, 2024 (2-0, +$305)
Indiana Pacers at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: Pacers by 4.5.
10:00 PM ET
The Pacers played a tough game against the Kings last night, so I could see them being a no-show in this game. The Blazers have made some lineup changes lately and should be more competitive.
Player Prop: I expect this game to be competitive, so I like Jerami Grant to go over 19.5 points. Grant averages 21.5 points per game, so we’re just asking him to hit his usual output against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The best number is over 19.5 -135 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Trailblazers +4.5 +102 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$205
NBA Player Prop: Jerami Grant over 19.5 points -135 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024 (2-0, +$300)
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors.
Line: Bulls by 2.5.
7:30 PM ET
The Raptors are playing on no rest and will be short-handed tonight because of the Pascal Siakam trade. Toronto is 2-4 against the spread on no rest when playing a team with rest anyway, so it’s not like they handled this sort of situation well in the first place.
Player Prop: I’m not sure what sort of drugs Jonas Valanciunas was on last night, but he put forth no effort in that game. Hopefully we’ll have better luck with Isaiah Hartenstein tonight. Hartenstein has gone over his rebounding prop of 13.5 in four of his previous six games. Washington can’t rebound, so it’s not a surprise that he pulled down 19 boards against them in a recent matchup. The best number is over 13.5 +105 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bulls -2.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
NBA Player Prop: Isaiah Hartenstein over 13.5 rebounds +105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024 (0-2, -$300)
Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans.
Line: Pelicans by 11.
9:00 PM ET
The Pelicans are in a tough scheduling spot. They just beat the Mavericks, and they have to take on the Suns in two nights. I can’t see them taking the Hornets seriously, so Charlotte should be able to keep this game close.
Player Prop: Because I believe this game will be close, I like the Jonas Valanciunas over points + rebounds. The Hornets can’t defend big men at all, so Valanciunas should have a big game. The best number is over 23.5 -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Hornets +11 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
NBA Player Prop: Jonas Valancinuas over 23.5 points + rebounds -102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2024 (0-1, -$120)
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Suns by 4.5.
9:00 PM ET
Player Prop: I don’t see a side I like tonight, but I’m going to bet over on Bradley Beal points. The Kings are very weak defensively to shooting guards, and we’ve seen Beal score into the 20s recently. The best number is over 19.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Player Prop: Bradley Beal over 19.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 7.5.
3:30 PM ET
We had success fading the Hawks a couple of nights ago, as they were inflated from their overtime victory against the 76ers. They’re still overrated and favored by way too many points. I like the Spurs to cover.
Player Prop: The Pacers play no defense, and Lauri Markkanen has been on a tear. I was suprised to see his points prop at only 24.5. The best number is over 24.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Spurs +7.5 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Player Prop: Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 points -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024 (0-2, -$320)
Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets.
Line: Nuggets by 11.
3:30 PM ET
The Pacers are in for a rude awakening, as they discover how difficult life will be without Tyrese Haliburton. They’re 2-0 without Haliburton thus far, but they’ve played against two bad teams. The Nuggets are on another level, and I like how they responded after their loss to Utah.
Player Prop: The Blazers can’t defend anyone in the front court. In two games against the Blazers this year, Kevin Durant has scored 40 and 31 points, so I like him over his point total. The best number is over 25.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -11 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Player Prop: Kevin Durant over 25.5 points -120 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$120
NBA Picks for Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024 (1-1, +$110)
Washington Bullets at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 7.
7:30 PM ET
The Bullets have been more competitive recently, so they should have a chance to cover this spread with the Hawks coming off last night’s game. Atlanta is a bit inflated now from its overtime win versus the 76ers. Aside from that game, the Hawks are 1-8 against the spread in their previous nine games.
Player Prop: The Spurs are very weak to guards, especially point guards. They allow a ton of production to that position, so Coby White will have a chance to rack up lots of assists. He’s gone over 5.5 assists in four of his previous five games anyway. The best number is over 5.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Bullets +7 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
Player Prop: Coby White over 5.5 assists -104 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Friday, Jan. 12, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz.
Line: Jazz by 2.
8:00 PM ET
We’ve been on the Jazz twice this week, but this seems to be a good fade spot for them after they beat the Nuggets, Bucks, and 76ers. They have to play again tomorrow night, so they may take Toronto lightly. The Raptors nearly defeated the Clippers and Lakers in their previous two games, so they’re live to win.
Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama has the easiest matchup of the night for any big man. The Hornets surrender tons of production to bigs, so Wembanyama could go nuts. I like the over 31.5 points + rebounds. The best number is over 31.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Raptors +2 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Player Prop: Victor Wembanyama over 31.5 -113 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024 (1-1, -$100)
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Knicks by 4.5.
8:30 PM ET
Luka Doncic is out for the Mavericks tonight. Before you wonder if the Mavericks can muster a win without their best player, consider that Dallas is 1-3 without Doncic this year, and the one victory was against the crappy Blazers. Dallas is 6-7 in its previous 13 games overall, so it’s not like the team is playing well anyway. The Knicks, meanwhile, are on a tear, and they have a huge advantage in the paint against the Mavericks, who can’t rebound at all.
Player Prop: We lost a heart-breaker here last night. Let’s hope we rebound with Julius Randle. As mentioned, the Mavericks struggle against bigs, and Randle has cleared the points + rebounds over total of 37.5 in five of his previous seven games anyway. The best number is over 37.5 -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Knicks -4.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Player Prop: Julius Randle over 37.5 points + rebounds -106 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024 (1-1, +$100)
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz.
Line: Nuggets by 6.
10:00 PM ET
The Nuggets are currently in their mid-season malaise, as they’ve posted a 3-5 ATS record in their previous eight games. The Jazz, meanwhile, have been a covering machine, and the sportsbooks haven’t accounted for that yet. It’s no surprise to see sharp money coming in on Utah.
Player Prop: I like Paul Reed over 18.5 points + rebounds. Reed is usually productive when Joel Embiid is out, and the Hawks are very weak to centers. The best number is over 18.5 -102 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz +6 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Player Prop: Paul Reed over 18.5 points + rebounds -102 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
NBA Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 5.
10:30 PM ET
It’s not surprising to see sharp action come in on the Lakers. The Raptors are in a tough spot tonight. They were already weak to guard play, and now they’ll be without Jakob Poeltl against Anthony Davis.
Player Prop: I like Austin Reaves over 5.5 assists. As mentioned, the Raptors give up a ton of production to guards, and Reaves has easily cleared 5.5 assists in three of his previous four games. The best number is over 5.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Lakers -5 +106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Player Prop: Austin Reaves over 5.5 assists -105 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
NBA Picks for Monday, Jan. 8, 2024
Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 8.
8:00 PM ET
The NBA picks are back now that the regular season is over. I’m going to kick things off with the Jazz, who are getting the sharp money tonight versus the shorthanded Bucks. Utah is weakest defensively versus guards, but Damian Lillard is out, so the Bucks can’t exploit that mismatch.
Player Prop: I like Jaylen Brown over 28.5 points. Jayson Tatum is out, and Brown averages 27.7 points per game in his career without Tatum. That’s about on par with the prop for tonight’s game, but it doesn’t take into account how bad Indiana is defensively. The best number is over 28.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
NBA Pick: Jazz +8 +101 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Player Prop: Jaylen Brown over 28.5 points -105 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
