NBA Picks



NBA Picks (Oct. 22-30) 2-4 (-$400)
NBA Picks (Nov. 4-10) 2-2 (+$25)
NBA Picks (Nov. 25-Dec. 1) 1-0 (+$200)
NBA Picks (Dec. 2-8) 0-2 (-$400)
NBA Picks (Dec. 9-15) 1-2 (-$200)
NBA Picks (Dec. 16-22) 2-1 (+$200)
NBA Picks (Dec. 23-29) 4-2 (+$515)
NBA Picks (Jan. 2-12) 2-4 (-$810)
NBA Picks (Jan. 13-19) 2-0 (+$415)
NBA Picks (Jan. 20-27) 0-4 (-$805)
NBA Picks (Feb. 9-13) 1-3 (-$400)
NBA Picks (Feb. 20-25) 2-4 (-$405)
NBA Picks (July 30-Aug. 2) 4-1 (+$625)
NBA Picks (Aug. 3-9) 4-1 (+$610)

2019-20 NBA Picks: 26-30 (-$630)
2018-19 NBA Picks: 114-98-4 (+$3,550)
2017-18 NBA Picks: 63-66-2 (-$1,850)
2016-17 NBA Picks: 51-67-2 (-$4,620)
2015-16 NBA Picks: 93-95-6 (-$1,305)
2014-15 NBA Picks: 62-53-4 (+$250)
2013-14 NBA Picks: 59-51-4 (+$760)
2012-13 NBA Picks: 51-45 (+$1,180)
2011-12 NBA Picks: 38-46-1 (-$3,005)
2010-11 NBA Picks: 113-89-4 (+$2,690)
2009-10 NBA Picks: 116-98-4 (+$1,375)
2008-09 NBA Picks: 122-119-6 (-$2,280)
2007-08 NBA Picks: 104-88-8 (+$1,485)
Follow @walterfootball for updates.



Sunday, Aug. 9, 2020


Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 9.5.

5:00 PM ET (Game 729-730)

I loved the Celtics over the Raptors two days ago, and I'm going back to them again this evening. They're an elite team, especially with Kemba Walker back in the lineup, and they're gunning for the No. 2 seed. They shouldn't have issues with the very shorthanded Magic, who will be missing Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and of course, American hero Jonathan Isaac. Boston should be able to win by double digits.

I may post another pick later or add a unit to this game. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.




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NBA Pick: Celtics -9.5 +101 (2 Units) - Bookmaker

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Saturday, Aug. 8, 2020 (1-0, +$205)


Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat.
Line: Suns by 2.5.

7:30 PM ET (Game 719-720)

I've said it many times, but the Suns are a sneaky, good team. They're playing extremely well right now, so I think they should be able to handle the Heat, who might be out of sorts because Kendrick Nunn has left the bubble for personal reasons. If Goran Dragic is out - his ankle roll didn't look good - Miami won't have anyone to run the point.

NBA Pick: Suns -2.5 +102 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$205



Friday, Aug. 7, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors.
Line: Raptors by 1.5.

9:15 PM ET (Game 711-712)

Ask anyone which team is performing the best in the bubble, and everyone would choose the Raptors. They are 4-0 in the restart, dismantling the Lakers recently. However, I think that victory was misleading because the Lakers aren't quite themselves as a result of LeBron James' groin injury. Otherwise, the Raptors have beaten the Magic, Heat and Jazz - three teams that are solid/good, but not great. Boston, conversely, is great, especially with Kemba Walker returning to the lineup. I think Boston pulls the upset tonight.

NBA Pick: Celtics +1.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Thursday, Aug. 6, 2020 (1-0, +$205)


Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Clippers by 5.

6:35 PM ET (Game 781-782)

The Mavericks haven't covered a spread since the restart, so I wonder why this spread is so low. The possible answer is that the Clippers are coming off a loss to Phoenix, but as I've stated numerous times, the Suns are a sneaky, good team. If it weren't for that game, this spread might be -7 or so, giving us great value with a Clipper team that should have Lou Williams at 100 percent.

NBA Pick: Clippers -5 +103 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$205



Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Oklahoma City vs. Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Thunder by 5.

6:35 PM ET (Game 769-770)

Everyone seemed impressed by the Raptors when they beat the Lakers. What if that happened because the Lakers aren't as good as people think they are? LeBron James doesn't seem quite himself, perhaps because he's dealing with a groin injury. Kyle Kuzma is also hurt. Also, remember that the Lakers don't need this game because they're locked into the No. 1 seed. I like the Thunder to come back from its loss on Monday.

NBA Pick: Thunder +5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Monday, Aug. 3, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 6.

4:05 PM ET (Game 743-744)

I was waiting on Jamal Murray news, and I was glad to see that he was ruled out. Without Murray, Will Barton and Gary Harris, the Nuggets are not nearly the same team. Denver usually thrives on its defense, but the team isn't nearly as potent on that end of the court without that trio. The Thunder, a vastly superior team, should have no problem dispatching Denver.

NBA Pick: Thunder -6 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker/5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Sunday, Aug. 2, 2020 (1-1, +$5)


Milwaukee Bucks vs. Houston Rockets.
Line: Bucks by 5.

8:35 PM ET (Game 735-736)

The Rockets just endured a tiring overtime game against the Mavericks. That game exposed their defense, as they had no answer for Kristaps Porzingis in the paint. If they couldn't contain Porzingis, what are they going to do against Giannis Antetokounmpo? The Milwaukee big man will dominate this game, allowing the Bucks to cover this small spread.

NBA Pick: Bucks -5 +103 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200


Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns.
Line: Mavericks by 5.5.

9:05 PM ET (Game 737-738)

As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Suns are a sneaky good team. They have some young players who have improved lately, so let's take advantage of that with a spread that's completely incorrect. I'd argue this should be close to a pick 'em, and that's not even factoring in Dallas' fatigue from losing a high-scoring overtime game against Houston.

NBA Pick: Suns +5.5 +102 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$205



Saturday, Aug. 1, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets.
Line: Heat by 4.5.

1:00 PM ET (Game 717-718)

I went to bed last night thinking that I'd list Miami +1 as a play today. I woke up, and the line is up to -4.5! The reason for this is Jamal Murray being sidelined. This ordinarily wouldn't be a big deal, but Gary Harris and Will Barton are also out of the lineup. Without those three, Denver is a far worse defensive team, so the Heat shouldn't have any trouble scoring in this game. Conversely, I don't know where Denver's offensive will come from outside of Nikola Jokic, who has a tough matchup against Bam Adebayo.

NBA Pick: Heat -4.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Friday, July 31, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Phoenix Suns vs. Washington Bullets.
Line: Suns by 7.5.

4:00 PM ET (Game 709-710)

We're off to a good start with a win last night, though the over-the-top SJW nonsense has me worried that it'll trickle into the NFL and cause a decrease in viewership. In the meantime, I like the Suns to cover this spread. This line may seem huge at first glance, but it's not big enough. The Suns are sneaky good, while the Bullets are a disaster. They've always had defensive issues, and now they'll have trouble scoring with Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans sidelined.

I may post another pick later or add a unit to this game. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

NBA Pick: Suns -7.5 -102 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200



Thursday, July 30, 2020 (1-0, +$220)


Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 4.

9:00 PM ET (Game 703-704)

The Clippers won't have Montrezl Harrell or Lou Williams tonight, but I still think they cover and perhaps win this game. The Lakers are way up in the standings, so they don't need this victory. Thus, I could see Anthony Davis playing fewer minutes than normal. The computer model says the Clippers should be favored by one, so I like the value with them.

NBA Pick: Clippers +4 +110 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$220



Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020 (0-1, -$205)


New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers.
Line: Lakers by 7.

10:00 PM ET (Game 585-586)

Sorry I'm posting this 10 minutes prior to tip-off, but I saw that the computer model had this projected to be Los Angeles -4, and it made sense to me. The Pelicans have improved since Zion Williamson made his debut, and the Lakers are coming off a grueling game against the Celtics.

NBA Pick: Pelicans +7 -102 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$205



Sunday, Feb. 23, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 4.

7:00 PM ET (Game 551-552)

There's nearly 70-percent action on the Thunder tonight, and yet the Spurs have owned this matchup. LaMarcus Aldridge kicks Steven Adams' a** every time they battle each other, and I don't see why things would change in this latest contest.

NBA Pick: Spurs +4 +103 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Saturday, Feb. 22, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 1.

7:30 PM ET (Game 535-536)

Why are the Hawks home underdogs to a Dallas team that will be missing both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis tonight? The Doncic news just broke 30 minutes prior to this writing, so perhaps the public hasn't realized this yet. Atlanta is a better team now that it has gotten players back from injury and Dewayne Dedmon via trade, so it should be able to beat the Doncic- and Porzingis-less Mavericks tonight.

NBA Pick: Hawks -1 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Friday, Feb. 21, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trailblazers.
Line: Pelicans by 4.5.

10:30 PM ET (Game 527-528)

This spread is out of control. Sure, Damian Lillard is out, but the Pelicans shouldn't be favored by 4.5/5 points on the road against a competent team. New Orleans' defense is poor, so the Blazers should be able to find ways to score without Lillard. With almost 80 percent of the betting action on the Pelicans, the Blazers look great tonight.

NBA Pick: Blazers +4.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes/Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Thursday, Feb. 20, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Heat by 6.

7:30 PM ET (Game 503-504)

Miami is 3-0 straight up and against the spread against the Hawks this year, which is one of the reasons this spread is so high. Another reason is that Miami has a tremendous record. However, the Heat is not nearly as good on the road. Two of their three wins against Atlanta this year came in Miami, while the other, a victory on the road, occurred when Trae Young was injured. This is a nice triple revenge spot for the Hawks, who have a penchant for pulling big upsets against superior teams at home.

NBA Pick: Hawks +6 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Thursday, Feb. 13, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


Los Angeles Clippers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 1.

8:00 PM ET (Game 523-524)

The Clippers were getting 80 percent of the money in Philadelphia when they were favored by a couple of points. Now, they're getting 41 percent of the money as underdogs in Boston. This makes no sense. The 76ers match up well with the Clippers because Joel Embiid can feast on their weak interior defense. Boston doesn't really have anyone to take advantage of that. Paul George should have a big game as the Clippers rebound from Tuesday's loss.

NBA Pick: Clippers -1 +105 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 8.

8:30 PM ET (Game 515-516)

This spread seems to be inflated because the Mavericks could get Luka Doncic back from injury. However, Doncic's minutes could be limited. Why even risk him prior to the All-Star Game? I'll take the points with a solid Sacramento squad.

NBA Pick: Kings +8 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: Pick.

7:00 PM ET (Game 579-580)

The 76ers are rare home underdogs because they haven't played well on the road lately. They tend to dominate at home, and I think they match up well with the Clippers. The Clippers' weakness is their interior defense, so Joel Embiid should have a big game. Speaking of Embiid, some callers on the local radio have called him fat and worthless, so I think he'll be motivated to play hard.

NBA Pick: 76ers PK +100 (2 Units) - Bovada -- Correct; +$200



Sunday, Feb. 9, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Bullets.
Line: Grizzlies by 1.5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 531-532)

I'm back from vacation, so I'm ready to dive back into the NBA picks. We've lost six games by one point this season, so hopefully we have better variance in the second half of the year.

The Bullets stand out as a great play today. Everyone is down on them because of their record, but they've quietly won three of four recently because they've gotten some key players back from injury, including Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans. Acquiring backup point guard Shabazz Napier should help them improve as well. NBA Pick: Bullets +1.5 +102 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Monday, Jan. 27, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Mavericks by 4.5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 531-532)

I'm confused about why the Mavericks are favored by this many points. I know Chris Paul is out, but I think that would actually help Oklahoma City in this matchup because that'll mean that Dennis Schroeder will have more minutes on Luka Doncic.

NBA Pick: Thunder +4.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020 (0-2, -$400)


Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs.
Line: Raptors by 3.

4:00 PM ET (Game 513-514)

I can't believe the horrific news that Kobe Bryant passed away in a helicopter crash. I'm not sure if this game will be played, but I like the Spurs. They just lost to Phoenix, but I think they were looking ahead to this game. This spread should be a pick 'em, so we're getting good value with the home dog.

NBA Pick: Spurs +3 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200


Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic.
Line: Clippers by 3.

6:00 PM ET (Game 519-520)

Again, I'm not sure if this game will be played, but if it is, I like the home dog. The Clippers are still without Paul George, while the Magic will be seeking revenge after Los Angeles obliterated them in the previous meeting about a week ago.

NBA Pick: Magic +3 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Saturday, Jan. 25, 2020 (0-1, -$205)


Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 2.

8:00 PM ET (Game 507-508)

People are pounding the Thunder tonight at a 75-percent clip. Yet, Oklahoma City will be without Danilo Gallinari, while Steven Adams will be a minutes restriction. The Thunder played last night and will be looking ahead to battling the Mavericks for playoff positioning. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, have a misleading 15-30 record because Karl-Anthony Towns missed a chunk of action.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves -2 -102 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$205



Monday, Jan. 20, 2020 (0-2, -$400)


Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets.
Line: 76ers by 2.5.

3:00 PM ET (Game 505-506)

This spread has moved 3.5 points because Kyrie Irving is out, while Al Horford was ruled to play. I'm glad this spread has moved because the Nets should be favored. In fact, I'm taking them on the moneyline. The 76ers are a terrible road team, and they just beat the Nets at home a few days ago, so Brooklyn has revenge working in its favor.

NBA Pick: Nets +110 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200


Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets.
Line: Magic by 3.

5:00 PM ET (Game 513-514)

Orlando is in a very tough scheduling spot. The team is playing its fourth game in six days, and it's flying back to the East Coast after spending plenty of time on the West Coast. Not only that, but they're also banged up. The Hornets, meanwhile, haven't played since Jan. 15. They're well rested, so they could win this game outright. I'll take the +3 +105 at Bookmaker.

NBA Pick: Hornets +3 +105 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020 (1-0, +$205)


Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs.
Line: Spurs by 2.

3:00 PM ET (Game 567-568)

The Spurs just lost to the Hawks, so this has created a deflated spread. The computer model says San Antonio -5 is correct. This is a revenge game for the Spurs - Miami beat them earlier in the week - and it was just announced that Dejounte Murray will play, so I like the Spurs quite a bit.

NBA Pick: Spurs -2 +103 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$205



Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020 (1-0, +$210)


Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 10.

8:00 PM ET (Game 523-524)

The Celtics will be missing a couple of players tonight, but that doesn't matter very much to me because this spread is so high. The computer model believes Milwaukee -5 is correct, as the Bucks have beaten up so many bad teams recently. Since Christmas, they've beaten the Knicks, Blazers, Kings, Warriors, Spurs (twice), Timberwolves, Bulls, Magic and Hawks. None of those teams have winning records. This is the first tough game for Milwaukee in a while, so I like Boston to cover the inflated spread.

NBA Pick: Celtics +10 +105 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$210



Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 (0-2, -$400)


Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons.
Line: Pistons by 5.

7:00 PM ET (Game 533-534)

This spread is bizarre to me when considering that the Bulls played in a close game last night. The case could've been made that these two teams were even a week ago, but Chicago is missing center Wendell Carter Jr., which means that Daniel Gafford is going to have to defend Andre Drummond. Good luck with that! The computer model correctly projects Detroit -10 to be the correct line, so I'll take the value with the host.

NBA Pick: Pistons -5 +105 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200


Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks.
Line: Mavericks by 2.5.

8:30 PM ET (Game 533-534)

This is another line that's way off. The 76ers should be favored, and yet they're not, because 70 percent of the public is on Dallas. The Mavericks aren't nearly the same team without Kristaps Porzingis, so the 76ers should be able to dominate the interior, even without Joel Embiid. Also, Dallas played last night, so it's nice that Philadelphia has the rest advantage.

NBA Pick: 76ers ML +115 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Friday, Jan. 10, 2020 (1-0, +$200)


San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Grizzlies by 1.5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 513-514)

I've somehow lost five games this year by exactly one point. That's five of 28 picks, which is crazy. Hopefully we have better luck beginning tonight. I like the Grizzlies, which is the opposite of what the public prefers. Everyne saw the Spurs beat the Celtics and Bucks recently, but I'm not convinced they've turned it around. This is a tough matchup for them, as Jae Crowder can take care of DeMar DeRozan. I think the Spurs could be flat following their two big wins, while the Grizzlies will be out for revenge after getting embarrassed by San Antonio the last time these teams clashed.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies -1.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Monday, Jan. 6, 2020 (0-2, -$410)


Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: 76ers by 8.

7:00 PM ET (Game 539-540)

The 76ers have lost four in a row, all on the road. They're so much better at home, but their losing streak has dropped this spread ans has given us good value. The computer model says Philadelphia -12 is correct.

NBA Pick: 76ers -8 -105 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$210


Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Kings by 10.

10:00 PM ET (Game 549-550)

This spread is quite the overreaction to the Warriors' injuries. I get that D'Angelo Russell and Draymond Green are out, but some of the younger players have stepped up lately. The Kings also have injuries - Marvin Bagley and Bogdan Bogdanovich are out - so this spread is definitely too high; the computer model says it should be Sacramento -5.

NBA Pick: Warriors +9.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Thursday, Jan. 2, 2020 (0-1, -$200)


Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Kings by 4.

10:00 PM ET (Game 559-560)

The Kings have collapsed lately, and I don't expect them to rebound. Luke Walton has absolutely no idea what he's doing, as his rotations make zero sense. The computer model agrees with this assessment, slotting Memphis -3 as the correct line in this game.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +4 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Monday, Dec. 30, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Nets by 5.5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 515-516)

If I'm going to back a road favorite like this, I'll want to make sure they're properly motivated. That's the case with the Nets. They're coming off a loss, and will be looking to avenge an earlier loss to Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be down several players, including Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins.

NBA Pick: Nets -5.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Saturday, Dec. 28, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Clippers by 8.5.

10:30 PM ET (Game 583-584)

The Clippers are coming off a big win over the Lakers on Christmas. I don't see them being fully focused for the Jazz. Regardless, this spread is too high; the computer model believes the Jazz should be two-point dogs.

NBA Pick: Jazz +8.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Friday, Dec. 27, 2019 (1-0, +$215)


Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 13.

4:00 PM ET (Game 545-546)

No one seems to have noticed that the Cavaliers have won three in a row. I like them to cover this high spread. The Celtics may not be focused; they're coming off a big Christmas win over the Raptors, and they have to play against Toronto again tomorrow!

NBA Pick: Cavaliers +13 +108 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$215



Thursday, Dec. 26, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Thunder by 5.5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 535-536)

This is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies after the Thunder beat them recently. Memphis will be more focused than Oklahoma City for that reason, as well as two others: First, the Thunder have to play tomorrow, so it might conserve some energy. Second, Oklahoma City beat the Clippers in its previous game, so it may have celebrated a bit too much. Furthermore, Danilo Gallinari will be out, so the Thunder will be shorthanded.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +5.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2019 (1-0, +$300)


Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers.
Line: Bucks by 3.

2:30 PM ET (Game 525-526)

The Bucks are favored by three on the road here because they have the better record. However, they've simply been trying harder in meaningless early-season games, whereas the 76ers have been their aloof selves. Philadelphia comes to play in big games, so it should win, especially with Eric Bledsoe sidelined. The computer model says Philadelphia -1 is the correct spread.

NBA Pick: 76ers +3 +100 (3 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$300



Monday, Dec. 23, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons.
Line: 76ers by 5.5.

7:00 PM ET (Game 501-502)

Joel Embiid is dealing with some sort of illness, so he might be limited if he even plays. The 76ers also have to battle the Bucks in two days. The computer model projects the 76ers as one-point road favorites, so I'm going to take the value with the home dog.

NBA Pick: Pistons +5.5 +103 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Thursday, Dec. 19, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs.
Line: Spurs by 3.5.

8:30 PM ET (Game 535-536)

This spread is built on San Antonio's reputation. People are used to the Spurs being good, but that's not the case anymore. The computer model believes the Nets should be favored by two, so we're getting a ton of value at +3.5.

NBA Pick: Nets +3.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 3.

8:00 PM ET (Game 521-522)

The Timberwolves are shorthanded tonight, as Karl-Anthony Towns is one of two starters who will be out. Minnesota has Denver coming up, so it could be focused for that game. I think it's telling that some of the sharp books have this line at +3.5, whereas the others have +4 listed.

NBA Pick: Pelicans +3 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200



Monday, Dec. 16, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Heat by 3.

8:00 PM ET (Game 583-584)

The Heat are down a couple of guards, yet the public is betting them at an 80-percent clip tonight. The Grizzlies will be more motivated, as they're seeking revenge for a blowout loss versus Miami earlier in the season.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +3 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200



Friday, Dec. 13, 2019 (0-1, -$205)


Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Clippers by 4.

9:30 PM ET (Game 541-542)

The Clippers are coming off a big win against the Raptors. They also have to play tomorrow night, so they may take this one easy. They won't have Patrick Beverly or Lou Williams, so the Timberwolves could take this one.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves +4 -102 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$205



Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics.
Line: Celtics by 1.

8:00 PM ET (Game 523-524)

The Celtics are underdogs tonight, which didn't seem right. The computer model agrees; it thinks Boston should be -7, which is a lot higher than I would have thought! The Celtics were looking ahead to this game and will want revenge on the Sixers, who don't play very well on the road.

NBA Pick: Celtics -1 +108 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers.
Line: Pacers by 2.

7:00 PM ET (Game 501-502)

The Celtics have to play the 76ers tomorrow night, so I imagine they're way more focused for that than this one. The public doesn't recognize that, as they're betting Boston at a 72-percent clip. Also, this spread is short; the computer model says Indiana should be -4.

NBA Pick: Pacers -2 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200



Monday, Dec. 9, 2019 (1-0, +$205)


Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 12.

8:00 PM ET (Game 565-566)

It took me a while to get over that bad Hornets beat from last week. Hopefully the Magic don't suffer the same luck. Everyone is betting the Bucks, who are destroying everyone. However, Milwaukee is coming off a big victory over the Clippers and could be flat, while Orlando plays good defense and could keep this game close.

NBA Pick: Magic +12 +103 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$205



Monday, Dec. 2, 2019 (0-2, -$400)


Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets.
Line: Suns by 3.5.

7:00 PM ET (Game 529-530)

I really don't understand why Phoenix was favored by 4.5 at Charlotte earlier in the day. The computer model says Charlotte -2 is the right number, and the sharps agree; they bet this down to +4 just as I was beginning to post this write-up.

I may post another pick later or add a unit to this game. If so, I'll tweet it out. I'll have updates on Twitter - @walterfootball.

NBA Pick: Hornets +3.5 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200


Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks.
Line: Hawks by 6.5.

7:30 PM ET (Game 531-532)

Here's another spread that's way off. We haven't seen the sharps come in on this yet, but Atlanta -1 is the correct number for this game. Granted, the Warriors are basically a G-league team at the moment, but it's not like the Hawks are good enough to be favored by about a touchdown.

NBA Pick: Warriors +6.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Clippers by 6.

8:00 PM ET (Game 541-542)

I apologize for the lack of NBA picks. I've been focusing on my NFL handicapping, so I haven't had the time most days. There will be picks every single day once the NFL regular-season is over. However, I couldn't resist tonight, as the Grizzlies look like a great play. The Clippers don't seem to care about this game, as they're sitting Kawhi Leonard with the Spurs on the horizon. The computer model says Memphis should be +1, so there's lots of value with the home dog.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +6 -103 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$200



Monday, Nov. 11, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans.
Line: Rockets by 5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 555-556)

Everyone is betting the Rockets tonight, but I think the Pelicans are the right side. The computer model says Houston -2 is the correct number. The Rockets have to play the Clippers in a couple of nights, so I imagine they'll be saving their energy for that game.

NBA Pick: Pelicans +5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Saturday, Nov. 9, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies.
Line: Mavericks by 3.

8:00 PM ET (Game 529-530)

The Mavericks have a solid record, but they have been a disappointment in regard to covering the spread. Their lines have been off, and that includes this one. The computer model says this spread should be Memphis -2. The Mavericks are sitting Kristaps Porzingis, as they seem to be preparing for their battle versus Boston.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +3 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Friday, Nov. 8, 2019 (1-0, +$205)


Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves.
Line: Timberwolves by 11.

8:00 PM ET (Game 509-510)

The Warriors have been competitive for the most part despite all of their injuries. D'Angelo Russell is returning tonight, which will provide a boost. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are not very good. With that in mind, this spread is way too high; the computer model says Minnesota -6 is the correct number. It's also worth noting that the Timberwolves could be looking ahead to Sunday's battle versus Denver.

NBA Pick: Warriors +11 +103 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$205



Thursday, Nov. 7, 2019 (1-0, +$220)


Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns.
Line: Suns by 2.

9:00 PM ET (Game 575-576)

The Suns are 5-2, and they're coming off a big win versus the 76ers. Philadelphia wasn't trying very hard in that game and didn't even have Joel Embiid, so the win wasn't that impressive. Fortunately, it has opened up some great line value on the Heat, who should be favored by four.

NBA Pick: Heat ML +110 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$220



Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Portland Trailblazers at Oklahoma City Thunder.
Line: Trailblazers by 2.

10:00 PM ET (Game 529-530)

The Thunder is 1-3 thus far, but it has covered three of the four games. It almost beat the Rockets and won over the Warriors. The Blazers might be looking ahead to the 76ers, and they're getting almost 80 percent of the money, so I'm comfortable fading them. I'm taking the moneyline at +105 on 5Dimes.

NBA Pick: Thunder ML +105 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Monday, Oct. 28, 2019 (0-2, -$400)


Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Line: Bucks by 14.5.

8:00 PM ET (Game 521-522)

A good chunk of the public action is on the Bucks, but I'm going the other way. This spread is too high - the computer model says Milwaukee -11 is the right number - and the Bucks could be a bit distracted with playing the Celtics next.

NBA Pick: Cavaliers +14.5 +105 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200


Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings.
Line: Nuggets by 4.5.

10:00 PM ET (Game 529-530)

The Kings have lost by double digits in every game this year, but they have talent and De'Aaron Fox will be healthier tonight. The computer model says Denver -1 is the correct number, so I'm going to take the value with Sacramento, as the Nuggets could be looking ahead to playing tomorrow night.

NBA Pick: Kings +4.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Incorrect; -$200



Saturday, Oct. 26, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz.
Line: Jazz by 10.5.

9:00 PM ET (Game 567-568)

This spread is too low. I have Utah at -13, as the Kings are very banged up despite the season just starting. There's some sharp money on the Jazz, which helps.

NBA Pick: Jazz -10.5 +100 (2 Units) - Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200



Thursday, Oct. 24, 2019 (0-1, -$200)


Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors.
Line: Clippers by 1.5.

10:35 PM ET (Game 531-532)

This is a mirror image of the Tuesday game. The Clippers are better than the Lakers, but they're not better than the Warriors with Paul George out. The Clippers will be a bit flat off their statement game, while the Warriors will be out to prove that they're still the class of the Western Conference.

NBA Pick: Warriors PK +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$200



Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2019 (1-0, +$200)


Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers.
Line: Lakers by 3.

10:35 PM ET (Game 503-504)

For a second, I was confused about why the Lakers are favored by a field goal, but then I recalled that everyone is overrating them because they have a guy who plays no defense and a center who always gets hurt. I know Paul George is out for the Clippers, but the better Los Angeles team has a far superior overall roster. Despite this, everyone is betting the Lakers, so I'll be more than happy to side with the Clippers, who should be favored.

NBA Pick: Clippers +3 +100 (2 Units) - 5Dimes/Bookmaker -- Correct; +$200


Fantasy Football Rankings - Aug. 9


2021 NFL Mock Draft - July 30


2022 NFL Mock Draft - May 13


2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


NFL Power Rankings - April 5


NFL Picks - Feb. 2


2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




 





 

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