Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
The premise: Coming off a Super Bowl victory, the Patriots open the 2013 season with a blowout win. Unfortunately, they get into trouble for Spygate II. As punishment, Roger Goodell orders the Patriots to fire Bill Belichick and replace him with Emmitt Smith. Three years later, the Patriots beat the Bears in the Super Bowl, 2-0. After the game, Emmitt announced his retirement.
This is a weekly feature that will take a newspaper reporter's perspective and follow Emmitt through his post-retirement days.
By Alex Rodriguez, Special to the NFL Bible Network Monday, Nov. 21, 2016
Ndamukong Suh has developed a bad reputation over the years. It started in his rookie campaign when he ripped quarterbacks' helmets off. The Thanksgiving game the following year where he kicked a Packer lineman was pretty bad. And who could forget the incident in 2015 when Suh attempted to chew on the lifeless limbs of Washington's quadriplegic quarterback?
Well, nothing Suh has ever done in his career comes even close to what transpired Sunday night.
The Lions were destroying the Patriots. Of course, New England has been a complete mess since JaMarcus Russell took over for the injured Tom Brady at the quarterback position. They've lost every game since this has happened - and their closest matchup was a 38-point defeat.
"Haha uhh... number on right side bigger on number on left side on score haha, do ya tink so?" Russell said/asked recently.
Detroit was up on New England, 73-0, in the fourth quarter. That's when the madness started.
After a routine tackle, Suh stormed off the field toward the Patriot sideline. He whipped a knife out of his pocket and stabbed New England head coach Jim Tressel in the stomach. Before anyone knew what was going on, Suh tossed a ninja star at left tackle Russell Okung's chest. Suh then whipped a gun out of his pants and shot backup quarterback Curtis Painter in the elbow.
The kicker is that Suh wasn't even whistled for a personal-foul penalty. Official Walt Coleman explained:
"Personal foul penalty... on the... offense... five men were in motion... that's a 5-yard penalty... on the offense... somethin' happened... that's a 5-yard penalty... sixth down..."
Suh was bombarded with questions from angry reporters during the post-game press conference. He calmly explained what happened.
"You guys are making it sound like I did something dirty, but I did not," Suh protested. "If I really wanted to hurt the Patriots, why would I stab their head coach and shoot their backup quarterback in the elbow? If I really wanted to hurt the Patriots, I would have sacked their quarterback. I also would have destroyed JaMarcus Russell's flowerbed and placed a pile of flaming dog poop on Robert Kraft's doorstep. But the stabbing, throwing and shooting were mere accidents."
We have yet to receive word from the commissioner's office, but Suh is expected to be suspended for four games. Perhaps that will teach him a lesson.
Tressel and Okung at least are OK. The same can't be said for Painter, unfortunately. Painter was placed on life support at the local hospital. He was able to issue a statement before the anesthesia took control.
"My arm... so weak already... now even weaker... and more inaccurate... I can't... even complete... a 1-yard pass... anymore..." Painter said, gasping for air. "If I die... please... store my beautiful... golden hair... in a museum... it is so beautiful... my locks... so bright... and gold... so precious... my hair... so precious..."
One can't help but feel sorry for Painter. Let's hope that Suh is brought to justice with a well-deserved four-game suspension.
SUH ASSIGNED TO ANGER MANAGEMENT
By Alex Rodriguez, Special to the NFL Bible Network Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016
Roger Goodell has made his announcement. Ndamukong Suh will not be suspended any games for stabbing Jim Tressel, throwing a ninja star at Russell Okung and shooting Curtis Painter.
That's not to say that Suh won't hear discipline for what happened Monday night. Per reports, Suh sneaked into Painter's room at the local hospital. Armed with shears, Suh cut Painter's beautiful blond hair off. He then pasted Painter's hair onto a cardboard cutout of Goodell and mailed it to the commissioner.
"I don't know what I'm supposed to do," Suh admitted. "I spoke to Mr. Goodell multiple times to find out what's legal and what's not legal, but he didn't explain everything to me. Is cutting off Curtis' hair, pasting it onto a Mr. Goodell cutout and mailing it to Mr. Goodell legal? I have no idea."
Regardless of what will transpire from these events, Suh will be forced to report to a counselor for anger management three times a week for the next six months. In fact, Suh's first visit to counseling occurred Tuesday.
"It was OK," Suh revealed. "I had the urge to beat my counselor with nunchucks, but I had a weird feeling that I might be penalized 15 yards for doing so."
In an odd turn of events, Suh's counselor is none other than Emmitt Smith, who is just two weeks removed from getting former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky off from all child rape charges.
We asked Emmitt about Suh's first session, expecting to get stonewalled because of doctor-patient confidentiality, but that was not the case.
"The guy that hire me say that I need to remember the code of doctor-patience contentiality, but I do not know what that mean," Emmitt stated.
It was an ethical dilemma to publish what transpired in Suh's first meeting with Emmitt. If you're uncomfortable reading this, feel free to peruse the rest of this newspaper. But here at the NFL Bible Network, we like to print anything we can get our hands on - regardless of whether we know it's truly factual or not.
At any rate, Emmitt told us that Suh does, in fact, have deep, dark issues that he needs to work through.
"Ndama Donkey Kong Suh have very madness inside," Emmitt revealed. "It is a lot madness, very madness that come from the heart of Ndama Donkey Kong Soup."
Emmitt can't get Suh's name right, but perhaps he has an idea where this so-called "madness" comes from.
"I write this in my NFC mark draft a few months ago a few years ago," Emmitt said. "I write that it is very inusual that two brother go in the top five of the same draft classes. The last time this happen, Peyton Manning and Albert Manning go at the same time, only a couple of years apart. Ndama Donkey Kong Soup and Russell Donkey Kong will be able to create history right in front of our very, very eyes."
So, Suh chucked a ninja star at Okung because the two are brothers? We're not following.
"Ndama Donkey Kong Soup and Russell Donkey Kong grewed up together and share the same blood," Emmitt said. "But they have a fight after they beat the green pig on the last level. After that, one of the Donkey Kong disappear and have been replace by a Donkey Kong with blond hair. She can fly in the air, but she definitely no Donkey Kong!"
We're now convinced that Emmitt should have been a shrink this whole time. The fact that we didn't have the option of controlling any Kong we wished in the Donkey Kong games has infuriated us since childhood as well.