These are my 2024 NFL Betting Futures. I’ve done well with futures over the past decade. My dollar count for win totals since 2014 is +$17,725. Here’s what I’m planning on betting this year (results will be added to the regular-season winnings/losses on the NFL Picks page after the Super Bowl is over):
Updated July 21, 2024
2024 NFL Betting Futures: Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 Wins -165 I wasn’t too comfortable betting the Ravens at under 10.5 wins, but I’ve seen some 11s pop up, and even an 11.5 at -165. Baltimore plays in the toughest division in football and won’t have three starting offensive linemen from last year. Plus, Lamar Jackson is always an injury risk. We can only be beaten if the Ravens go 12-5 or better, so this seems like a good bet.
Betting 2.64 Units to win 1.5 at BetMGM (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Carolina Panthers Under 4.5 Wins -140 I thought the Panthers were going to be better this year, but half their roster is injured. They may also go back to Bryce Young now that Andy Dalton is throwing interceptions. If Carolina starts Young again, I have no idea how they’re going to get to five wins.
Betting 2.8 Units to win 2 at FanDuel (locked in as of 10/21/24)
Dallas Cowboys Under 5.5 Wins -114 The Cowboys are awful. They can’t do anything well. How are they going to get to six wins? Special thanks to Evan Daniel for the heads up about this one.
Betting 2.3 Units to win 2 at FanDuel (locked in as of 11/19/24)
Denver Broncos Under 5.5 Wins -115, Under 4.5 Wins +180 I can’t believe we’re getting plus money on the Broncos at under 5.5 wins. They have a real chance to have the worst record in the NFL. Their offense is dreadful, while their defense is not what used to be because of so many departures. They also have a very difficult schedule because of their division. I’m betting on the alternate under 4.5 as well.
Betting 4.6 Units to win 4 at BetMGM (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Betting 1 Unit to win 1.8 at Circa (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins -130 It’s hard to imagine the Texans winning fewer than 10 games, barring an injury or major regression from C.J. Stroud. The Texans are loaded and should make a big jump in Stroud’s second season.
Betting 1.3 Units to win 1 at Caesars (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Las Vegas Raiders Over 6.5 Wins -126, Over 7.5 Wins +200 I don’t understand what I’m missing with the Raiders. Why is their total so low? They had the No. 7 defense in the NFL last year, and they’ll be better with Christian Wilkins. Their offense is loaded with play-makers. Quarterback has some stability with Gardner Minshew, who nearly led the Colts to the playoffs last season. I have the Raiders going 10-7 in my NFL Season Previews, so I definitely think the over hits. My only worry is that Davante Adams might be traded, which is why I’m not going with the full five units.
Betting 3 Units to win 3.8 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Betting 1 Unit to win 2 at Circa (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Los Angeles Rams Over 8.5 Wins -150 I have the Rams winning 12 games, so I want to bet their over win total. The public is down on them because of Aaron Donald’s retirement, but some major upgrades were made to the defense otherwise. They also have an explosive offense, and they happen to be extremely well coached. Being in the weaker NFC helps as well.
Betting 3 Units to win 2 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Minnesota Vikings Under 7.5 Wins -170 Paying -170 vig is a “tough pillow to swallow,” as a Hall of Fame running back once said. Still, it seems worth it here, as the Vikings have a difficult schedule on top of enduring the growing pains of a rookie quarterback and a young defense.
Betting 3.4 Units to win 2 at FanDuel (locked in as of 7/20/24)
New England Patriots Under 5 Wins -120 The Patriots had four wins last year – with Bill Belichick. Now, they’re going to win five-plus without him? I don’t see how that happens, especially when considering their impossible AFC schedule. The only under five I see is at Westgate, but I also like the under 4.5 at plus money.
Betting 3.6 Units to win 3 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/20/24)
New Orleans Saints Under 7.5 Wins +118 I’m adding this one after thinking about how bad New Orleans’ offensive line could be this year. It’s possible that the Saints will have the worst blocking in the NFL, so I think they’re a good bet to go under 7.5 wins.
Betting 3 Units to win 3.55 at Caesars (locked in as of 8/11/24)
New York Giants Under 6.5 Wins -125 I don’t see how the Giants will get to seven wins. They could easily be the worst team in the NFL. Their offensive line continues to be a mess, while their only play-maker is a rookie. Their defensive line is great, but that’s about it. Oh, and Daniel Jones is coming off a torn ACL and may not be able to run as much as usual.
Betting 3.75 Units to win 3 at Circa (locked in as of 7/20/24)
New York Jets Over 7.5 Wins -124 This is a midseason add, and I’d like to thank my Tuesday picks show co-host Evan for this recommendation. The Jets are at an all-time low according to public perception, but they should have beaten the Bills. They’re much better than their 2-4 record indicates. I think they’ll win at least eight games.
Betting 2.48 Units to win 2 at FanDuel (locked in as of 10/15/24) Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 Wins -130 I love the Eagles this year. They’ve added some very talented defensive pieces, and they’ll have Vic Fangio as a huge upgrade as a coordinator coaching those pieces. Meanwhile, the already-explosive offense will have Saquon Barkley as a colossal upgrade in the backfield.
Betting 2.6 Units to win 2 at BetMGM (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Seattle Seahawks Under 7.5 Wins +135 The Seahawks are a major regression candidate this year. They lost all three starting offensive linemen, all their top linebackers, and both starting safeties. Oh, and Pete Carroll is gone, too.
Betting 2 Units to win 2.7 at Caesars (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 8.5 Wins -155 Speaking of regression candidates, the Buccaneers enjoyed so many fluky wins last year. That’s one reason to be bearish on them. The other is Dave Canales’ departure. Canales had a huge impact on Baker Mayfield, who now has to learn a new system. I’d rather bet the under 8.5 -155 than under 7.5 +135 because each win means a lot in the dreadful NFC South.
Betting 4.65 Units to win 3 at Caesars (locked in as of 7/20/24)
2024 NFL Betting Futures: Super Bowl LIX Odds
Cincinnati Bengals: 35/1 I’ve been waiting for this one for a while. I loved the Bengals heading into the year, but thought they could get off to a slow start. That has happened, and now they’re 1-4. However, they could be 3-2, and they have an easy schedule coming up. In fact, they only have two tough games the rest of the season. Teams have come back from 1-4 before, and the Bengals could easily do that. I love the value we’re getting at 35/1.
Betting 1 Units to win 35 at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings (locked in as of 10/13/24)
Detroit Lions: TBA/1 I’m keeping this as a placeholder because I plan on betting the Lions at some point. They’re 13/1 right now at Circa, which is OK, but I think we can do better. I’m going to monitor these futures more frequently during the season.
Update: BetMGM had a 33-percent odds boost with a max bet of $20, so I put it on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at 16/1.
Betting ?? Units to win ?? at ???
Betting 0.2 Units to win 3.2 at BetMGM (locked in as of 8/11/24)
Green Bay Packers: 20/1 The Packers are third in net adjusted EPA. They have the No. 6 defense, while “No Cookie” Jordan Love is improving each week from his injury. I like the value at 20/1, but my main reason for betting this today is because BetMGM has a 20-percent profit boost with a max bet of $20. So, we’re essentially getting 24/1 with one of the best teams in the NFL.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 4.8 at BetMGM (locked in as of 10/14/24)
Indianapolis Colts: 75/1 Had the Colts made the playoffs last year, we would not be getting 75/1 on them to win the Super Bowl. I say that because they were one dumb fourth-down playcall away from defeating the Texans and reaching the postseason. This was despite starting Gardner Minshew for most of the year. The Colts will be better with Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco, and they’ll have Jonathan Taylor available for the entire season. Also, they have a terrific offensive line and enhanced pass rush, thanks to the Laiatu Latu pick. The Colts are my favorite long shot to win the Super Bowl.
Betting 1 Unit to win 75 at Westgate/Circa (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Kansas City Chiefs: TBA/1 I’m keeping this as a placeholder because I plan on betting the Chiefs at some point. The best number, as of this writing, is +600 at FanDuel, but I think we’ll be able to do better when the Chiefs suffer their inevitable annual swoon.
Betting ?? Units to win ?? at ???
Philadelphia Eagles: 17/1 It’s amusing to me that the Eagles have longer odds than the Cowboys when they are so much better than Dallas. Their explosive offense will be even better with Saquon Barkley, while their defense will improve greatly in 2024, thanks to the additions of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Devin White, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Betting 2 Units to win 34 at Caesars (locked in as of 4/13/24)
2024 NFL Betting Futures: Division Winners
Carolina Panthers: +1250 I see no difference between the Panthers and the other three dreadful teams in the NFC South, so I’m willing to bet them to win the division at +1250. I love the upgrades they’ve made to the offensive line and receiving corps this offseason, and Dave Canales will be able to get the most out of Bryce Young.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 6.25 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers: +150, +240 I discussed this on the WalterFootball After Dark Show: I like betting both the Lions and Packers at plus money because I don’t see the Bears or Vikings winning the division. Given that they’re both plus money, you’ll win no matter which won takes the NFC North.
Betting Lions 2 Units to win 3 at DraftKings (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Betting Packers 2 Units 4.8 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Los Angeles Rams: +390 Everyone is focused on Aaron Donald’s retirement, but I still love the Rams. They’ve made some major upgrades to their secondary, while their offense is one of the most explosive units in the NFL. Matthew Stafford’s health is always a question mark, but Los Angeles’ terrific offensive line should be able to shield him well.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 5.85 at Circa (locked in as of 7/20/24)
2024 NFL Betting Futures: MVP and League Leaders
Jalen Hurts MVP +1600 Jalen Hurts is the quarterback on the team I believe will have the best record in the NFL this year, so I like him to win MVP at 16/1. Hurts was also screwed out of the MVP in 2022, so perhaps voters will remember that.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16 at BetMGM/BetUS (locked in as of 7/20/24)
Jared Goff MVP +840 I’ve been wanting to bet Jared Goff to win MVP, as he’s been incredible this season. BetMGM has a 20-percent odds boost, so I turned +700 into +840.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 4.2 at BetMGM (locked in as of 10/27/24)
Josh Jacobs Most Rushing Yards +2200 Josh Jacobs is a great bet to win the rushing title at 22/1. He’s won it before, and he’ll be getting the entire workload in Green Bay, given how much money he received on the open market.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22 at Caesars (locked in as of 8/27/24)
Jonathan Taylor Most Rushing Yards +800 Jonathan Taylor is my other pick to win the rushing title. Like Josh Jacobs, Taylor has done it already. Taylor won’t be holding out this year, and he’ll be running behind a top-five offensive line.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16 at FanDuel (locked in as of 8/27/24)
2024 NFL Betting Futures: Other
New Orleans Saints Finish Last in NFC South +350 This goes with what I said earlier. The Saints could implode this year, thanks to horrible blocking and poor coaching. The Panthers are the heavy favorites to finish last in the division, but they should be much better this year.
Betting 1 Unit to win 3.5 at BetMGM (locked in as of 8/11/24)
Philadelphia Eagles Most Wins +1200 I like the Eagles having the most wins in the NFL this year. They have an easy schedule – they play against the NFC South – and their division sucks for the most part. They’ve made major improvements everywhere, adding some talented defensive players and Saquon Barkley. Their coordinators will be markedly better than they were last year as well.
Betting 1 Unit to win 12 at Circa (locked in as of 7/20/24)
2024 NFL Draft Props (+59.75 Units last year)
Here are some 2024 NFL Draft props. I will be adding more Wednesday night or Thursday morning. I will need to enter New Jersey to have access to draft props on FanDuel, DraftKings, etc. because I cannot bet them in Pennsylvania. These draft props are from Bookmaker, BetUS and Bovada, but they are very limited for draft wagering. Also, Charlie and I will be hearing info, so I’ll add stuff occasionally.
Speaking of Charlie, he, Jacob and I recently did a draft props show:
Update: I ventured to New Jersey – shout out to the Trenton Thunder Baseball Stadium – to place bets on FanDuel and DraftKings, so those have been added as well. We’ll have more stuff as more info comes in via Charlie tonight.
Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers to be first pick, Darius Robinson to be second pick +5000 I’m playing this and another for Arizona’s two selections. The team is likely to choose a receiver in the top 10 and then possibly Darius Robinson in the 20s.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 25 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Arizona Cardinals: Rome Odunze to be first pick, Darius Robinson to be second pick +8500 Here’s the other Arizona prop. Betting $50 and $40 on them, respectively.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 34 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Brock Bowers to be a top 10 pick +180 I’d be shocked if Brock Bowers makes it past the Jets.
Betting 2 Units to win 3.6 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Jayden Daniels to be the No. 2 pick -400 The vig on this sucks, but we’re extremely confident that the Redskins will choose Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick.
Betting 1.2 Units to win 0.3 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Keon Coleman selected in first round +500 Keon Coleman is viewed mostly as a second-rounder by the media, but I know that there’s some interest in him at the bottom of the first round. He could sneak into Thursday, so +475 is good value.
Betting 0.15 Units to win 0.75 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.25 Units to win 1.19 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Laiatu Latu first defensive player selected +250 There were some medical question marks regarding Laiatu Latu earlier in the draft process, but those have been resolved. Given that, I suspect he’ll be the first defensive player chosen.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 0.5 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Laiatu Latu first defensive lineman/edge selected +175 If Latu is the first defensive player chosen, then he will obviously be the first defensive lineman or edge selected.
Betting 5 Units to win 8.75 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Laiatu Latu under 16.5 -290 Seems to be locked in, barring some sort of bong gate calamity.
Betting 2.9 Units to win 1 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Player drafted in top 10: Laiatu Latu +280 Speaking of Latu moving up draft boards, I expect him to be drafted in the top 10, potentially as the only defensive player.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.4 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.15 Units to win 0.26 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 3 Units to win 5.25 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 2 Units to win 2.5 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Player drafted first: Laiatu Latu versus Byron Murphy +130 Getting plus money on this seems great.
Betting 2 Units to win 2.6 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Player drafted No. 8: Laiatu Latu +250 Speaking of Latu moving up draft boards, it makes more sense for him to go No. 8 to the Falcons, given their huge need at edge rusher.
Betting 2 Units to win 5 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/25)
Betting 2 Units to win 3 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/25)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.25 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/24/25)
Betting 0.3 Units to win 0.75 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/25)
J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, Malik Nabers to be the No. 4 pick +350, +850, +1500 All three players obviously can’t be the No. 4 pick, but we can bet all three and win money if one is chosen at No. 4. The Cardinals prefer Malik Nabers to Marvin Harrison Jr., and this pick could be traded for a quarterback.
Betting 1, 1, 1 Units to win 3.5, 8.5, 13 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.3, 0.23, 0.1 Units to win 1.05, 1.5, 1,5 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Kool-Aid McKinstry under 28.5 +100 It would be pretty surprising if Kool-Aid McKinstry fell beyond 28, as he’s deemed the second- or third-best cornerback, depending on whom you ask. There’s a decent chance McKinstry goes in the teens.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 0.5 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 1.2 Units to win 1 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 1.3 Units to win 1 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 1.15 Units to win 1 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Adonai Mitchell over 27.5 -180 Adonai Mitchell is a talented receiver, but he has some character concerns that are likely to drop him to the second round. The vig on this isn’t pretty, but it’s likely to win.
Betting 0.9 Units to win 0.5 at BetUS Locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 1.21 Units to win 0.5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.11 Units to win 0.05 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 1.03 Units to win 0.5 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 1.15 Units to win 0.5 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Malik Nabers first wide receiver selected +650 Imagine getting 6.5/1 odds on a coin flip. That’s what this is. There are plenty of teams that rank Malik Nabers over Marvin Harrison Jr. Not all of them do, but there are enough to make this an excellent wager.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 3.25 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.17 Units to win 1 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.5 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Jordan Morgan under 32.5 -155 I know of one team drafting in the 20s that likes Jordan Morgan a lot. There’s too much interest in the tackles for him to fall.
Betting 1.55 Units to win 1 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/24/24)
New York Jets Position of First Drafted Player Tight End, Wide Receiver +150, +250 Charlie Campbell reported that the Jets are expected to draft Brock Bowers or one of the receivers with this pick because they no longer need a tackle in the wake of the Tyron Smith signing. It’s unclear whether the pick will be Bowers or a receiver, but we can bet both positions and make money.
Betting 0.1, 0.1 Units to win 0.15, 0.25 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/24/24)
New York Jets 10th pick: Brock Bowers +150, Rome Odunze +1200 This is similar to the prop above, but with much better odds for Odunze.
Betting 1 and 0.5 Units to win 1.5 and 6 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Michael Penix to be drafted 8th overall +2800 I posted this on the NFL Draft Blog that I was looking to hedge the Laiatu Latu to go eighth bet when Ian Rapoport spoke on TV about it.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 14 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/25/24)
Dallas Turner over 9.5 -175 Charlie Campbell is going to post something in a few hours about NFL teams flagging Dallas Turner medically. It sounds like he’s going to fall.
Betting 5.25 Units to win 3 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/25/24)
First four players drafted to all be quarterbacks +170
This has never happened before, but there’s a good chance of it occurring now. The top three picks are set to be quarterbacks, and the Vikings, Giants and Broncos all have interest in moving up to No. 4.
Betting 3 Units to win 5.1 at FanDuel (locked in as of 4/24/24)
Day 2: Jonathon Brooks to be first running back drafted This is not based on sourced information, but Jerry Jones let it slip that he loves Jonathon Brooks. It sounded sincere, but even if he’s lying, some team may jump in front of the Cowboys to draft Brooks.
Betting 0.8 Units to win 0.5 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/26/24)
Day 2: Tyler Nubin to be first safety drafted -165 We know that the Giants like Tyler Nubin. The problem is that it’s unclear if some other team will draft another safety first instead. This comes with some risk, so I wouldn’t go crazy with it.
Betting 0.83 Units to win 0.5 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/26/24)
Betting 1.42 Units to win 0.75 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/26/24)
Arizona Cardinals second-round pick: offensive line +175, defensive line/edge +1100 From the source who gave us Darius Robinson to the Cardinals, we get this. I like the Cardinals to address the trenches. Cornerback is possible, but offensive or defensive line seems more likely.
Betting 2 and 1 Units to win 3.5 and 11 at DraftKings (locked in as of 4/26/24)
NFL Picks - Nov. 20
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
