NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2014



NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 6-6 (-$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 6-6 (-$90)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Texans by 3.5.

Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I was glad to see Jim Harbaugh pull out a win and cover last week. Hopefully he can make it two in a row. He's 3-0 in the fourth week of the preseason, so I feel comfortable getting points with him versus a relatively unknown in Bill O'Brien.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Jim Harbaugh is 9-6 in preseason games (8-3 excluding Week 1).
  • Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Bill O'Brien is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Bill O'Brien is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Texans 17
    49ers +3.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200








    Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)
    Line: Saints by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    You might be surprised that I'm betting John Harbaugh in this spot because he's just 2-4 in the fourth week of preseason games, but it must be noted that two of those losses have come against Jeff Fisher, who is 12-4 in this particular week. The only reason I'm not betting the Rams, by the way, is because Joe Philbin has screwed me twice this preseason. Perhaps he's changed his stance on these meaningless games.

    Anyway, I like Baltimore here because Sean Payton is a dreadful 1-7 in the final week of the exhibition slate.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 18-9 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 2-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean Payton is 21-16 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-7 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Saints 13
    Ravens +3.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)
    Line: Seahawks by 5.

    Saturday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This is my August NFL Pick of the Month. Pete Carroll is all about competition, so he loves winning these preseason games, as his 13-6 record indicates. He's also 3-1 in Week 4, which is a plus. Dennis Allen, meanwhile, is just 3-8 overall and 0-2 in Week 4. Throw in the fact that many of Seattle's backups, who will be playing in this game, could actually start for Oakland, and you have a recipe for a blowout.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Pete Carroll is 13-6 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 3-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Dennis Allen is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Dennis Allen is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Raiders 12
    Seahawks -5 (3 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$330







    Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
    Line: Chargers by 3.

    Thursday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    We don't know a lot about Bruce Arians and Mike McCoy yet, but Arians is 4-1 in the preseason if Week 3 is excluded. Mike McCoy, meanwhile, is just 2-5 overall. He lost last year's Week 4 tilt to the 49ers by the score of 41-6. That's worth a unit.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Bruce Arians is 4-3 in preseason games (7-3 excluding Week 1).
  • Bruce Arians is 1-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCoy is 2-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCoy is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals 16, Chargers 13
    Cardinals +3 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0





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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 36-22 (62.1%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 2-0 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 0-2 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 0-1 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 0-2 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 2-0 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 1-1 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 1-1 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 2-0 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 1-1 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 1-1 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 1-1 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 1-1 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 1-1 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 1-1 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 0-2 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 2-0 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 2-0 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 1-1 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 1-0 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-1 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 0-2 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 2-0 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 0-1 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 2-0 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 2-0 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 1-1 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 2-0 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 1-1 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 6-3 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 2-4 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 5-6 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 4-3 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 2-4 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 2-3 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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