Colts beat the Bears, 29-17 Indianapolis beats Chicago, 29-17

Bears (15-3) at Colts (15-4). Line: Colts by 7. Over-Under: 48Ĺ.
Sunday, 6:20 ET
Super Bowl XLI: Miami, Florida
CBS
Walter's Game of the Week

Walt's Projected Line: Colts -7.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), WR Brandon Stokley (IR), DT Corey Simon (IR), DT Montae Reagor, S Mike Doss (IR). Bears: OUT: DT Tommie Harris (IR), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Mike Brown (IR).

If I hear ESPN, FOX, the Discovery Channel or any other TV station mention Peyton Manningís ability to finally overcome adversity again, Iím going to lock myself in a room, repeatedly watch William Shatnerís mercifully defunct game show until I lose all semblance of sanity, and live out my years in a mental hospital, hanging out with imaginary friends and muttering the sequence ď4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42Ē over and over to myself. Donít laugh or roll your eyes Ė Iím dead serious.

I think I can speak for any non-Colts fan when I say that weíve had enough already. We get that Manning had somewhere around 60,000 playoff losses prior to his brilliant 18-point comeback against the New England Patriots. We understand that he potentially distanced himself from perennial choke artists like Dan Marino and Dan Fouts with his career-defining second half in the AFC Championship. And weíre also well aware that Manning had to overcome being raised by werewolves, surviving the slums of Beverly Hills and losing both of his parents to alien probing.

Yeah, Iím well aware that I just regurgitated the first two paragraphs of this weekís column in the Centre Daily Times. Iím tired, grumpy and frustrated that we have to deal with this Manning love-fest for 14 days, so go ahead and sue me. I donít really care at this point.

Excluding his brilliant second half against the Patriots, Manning hasnít done anything this postseason. In fact, prior to the final 30 minutes of the AFC Championship, Manning had thrown six interceptions to just one touchdown Ö and people think Rex Grossman is the worst quarterback in this matchup. Please.

In all seriousness, I think the Colts will have problems scoring against the Bears. If Chicago can shut down Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston, they should be able to do a number on a perennial playoff choker. The Bears will put consistent pressure on Manning, just like they did against Brees.

Iím not sure if anyone has noticed this, but it seems like Grossman does terribly when expected to do well, and performs brilliantly when everyone berates him. Itís the old Kordell Stewart formula. And because every single so-called expert on ESPN is predicting Grossman to implode, I think heíll have a pretty solid game, considering heíll be going against one of the leagueís worst defenses.

Because all of the analysts are picking the Colts, this reminds me of the National Championship between Ohio State and Florida. The Buckeyes, who were favorites by about a touchdown, had the celebrated Heisman winner and were coming off a 42-39 victory against No. 2 Michigan, in a game that everyone believed to feature the top two teams in the country. Meanwhile, the Gators were out to prove that they belonged on the same football field as Ohio State. They consequently beat the unprepared Buckeyes, 41-14.

There are just too many parallels between Indianapolis and Ohio State. Manning is Troy Smith. Michigan is New England. Floridaís defensive speed on the collegiate level is comparable to what Chicago has on the NFL plateau. No one is giving the Bears any respect. No one is giving them a chance.

Well, I am. Iím going to be the only journalist in America to pick Chicago over Indianapolis. And like I said, Iím predicting that Grossman will win the MVP.

OK, maybe youíre right. Maybe I have lost my mind.


The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
Remember the Ohio State-Florida matchup? Everyone thought the Buckeyes were the best team. Everyone believed Ohio State-Michigan was the National Championship. No one gave the Bears a chance. Don't think for a second that Lovie Smith won't play the underdog card.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (About 200,000 online bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Colts are 11-7 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.
  • Peyton Manning is 2-6 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against Jake Plummer, Trent Green).
  • Opening Line: Colts -6.
  • Opening Total: 48Ĺ.
  • Weather: Showers, 68 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Prediction: Bears 24, Colts 22. (Bears +7).
Double Money Pick.
Incorrect: Colts 29, Bears 17.


Second-Half Bets
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.




My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 11-5
Eagles: 8-10
Giants: 10-6
Redskins: 9-6

Bears: 9-10
Lions: 10-6
Packers: 11-4
Vikings: 6-10

Buccaneers: 6-9
Falcons: 7-9
Panthers: 8-6
Saints: 8-10

49ers: 9-7
Cardinals: 4-12
Rams: 7-8
Seahawks: 10-8

Bills: 11-5
Dolphins: 10-5
Jets: 11-6
Patriots: 11-7

Bengals: 7-8
Browns: 8-6
Ravens: 7-10
Steelers: 8-8

Colts: 8-11
Jaguars: 9-6
Texans: 12-4
Titans: 9-6

Broncos: 4-11
Chargers: 10-7
Chiefs: 6-11
Raiders: 6-9

Divisional Games: 52-45
Game Edge: 37-54
Psychological Edge: 25-22
Vegas Edge: 20-12
Trend Edge: 20-27
Double Edge: 20-17
Triple Edge: 0-2
Quadruple Edge: 0-0


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1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 1-2 (-$360)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 0-1 (-$440)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 15, 2014): 10-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 15, 2014): $0

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40% (-$580)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 115-118-7, 49.4% (-$2,655)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 40-38, 51.3% (+$70)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 9-13-1, 40.9% (-$1,620)
2014 Season Over-Under: 123-98-2, 55.7% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,140

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,129-1,962-117, 52.0% (+$9,760)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 684-621-31 (52.4%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 285-247-11 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1,664-1,635-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-18 (62.5%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-9
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-6
49ers: 6-7
Eagles: 9-5
Lions: 5-8
Falcons: 6-8
Cardinals: 7-7
Giants: 4-10
Packers: 9-4
Panthers: 5-9
Rams: 6-8
Redskins: 8-6
Vikings: 11-3
Saints: 5-8
Seahawks: 7-7
Bills: 6-8
Bengals: 5-10
Colts: 6-7
Broncos: 7-7
Dolphins: 9-4
Browns: 7-5
Jaguars: 8-6
Chargers: 5-9
Jets: 7-7
Ravens: 6-8
Texans: 6-7
Chiefs: 8-5
Patriots: 7-7
Steelers: 7-7
Titans: 6-6
Raiders: 5-9
Divisional: 31-37 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-16 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 23-21 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 39-39 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 29-15 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 13-11 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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