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NFL Weekly Predictions
Preseason Week 1



Note: Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers. Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Records of respective coaches are displayed under "The Trends."




New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0).
Line: Steelers by 2.5. Over-Under: 34.

Sunday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: N/A.
Injuries: N/A.

Sean Payton has shown that he doesn't really care about preseason games. He has his entire team coming back, so they won't really care about winning this game. Mike Tomlin, on the other hand, would like a victory to impress his new employer.

I also like the Under, as Week 1 preseason games have a habit of being low-scoring.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Sean Payton is 1-3 in the preseason.
  • Mike Tomlin is 0-0 in the preseason.


  • Prediction: Steelers 17, Saints 6.
    Steelers -2.5 (2 Units - Money Pick). -- Correct; +$200
    Under 34 (2 Units - Money Pick). -- Correct; +$200
    Steelers 20, Saints 7.




    Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0).
    Line: Lions by 3. Over-Under: 34.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    I didn't think Marvin Lewis cared about the preseason until he went 4-0 last year. Rod Marinelli was just 1-3. Once again, under is the play for the total.


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 8-7 in the preseason (4-0 in 2006).
  • Rod Marinell is 1-3 in the preseason.


  • Prediction: Bengals 20, Lions 10.
    Bengals +3 (.5 Units). -- Correct; +$50
    Under 34.5 (1 Unit). -- Incorrect; -$110
    Lions 27, Bengals 26.




    Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0).
    Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Over-Under: 34.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    Tony Dungy, 1-8 in the preseason the past two years, has shown that he doesn't care about exhibition games one bit. Wade Phillips was 8-4 with the Bills.


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Tony Dungy is 8-13 in the preseason (1-8 last two years).
  • Wade Phillips was 8-4 in the preseason w/Buffalo.


  • Prediction: Cowboys 23, Colts 3.
    Cowboys -4.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick). -- Correct; +$400
    Under 34 (1 Unit). -- Correct; +$100
    Cowboys 23, Colts 10.




    Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0).
    Line: Saints by 6.5. Over-Under: 36.

    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    A 6.5-point spread is too high for a team that doesn't care about the preseason. This isn't a big play, by any means, but I'm somewhat confident Buffalo will cover.


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Dick Jauron is 8-14 in the preseason.
  • Dick Jauron is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in the preseason.
  • Losers of the Hall of Fame Game are 3-1 the following week.


  • Prediction: Saints 16, Bills 14.
    Bills +6.5 (.5 Units). -- Correct; +$50
    Under 36 (1 Unit). -- Correct; +$100
    Bills 13, Saints 10.




    Washington Redskins (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0).
    Line: Titans by 3. Over-Under: 35.5.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    NOTE: I previously had the Titans as a 2-Unit, money pick selection, but an e-mailer brought up a good point. After last year's terrible season, Joe Gibbs could be inclined to win in the preseason, especially with a very young signal caller under center. I've dropped this pick down to .5 Units.


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Joe Gibbs is 4-8 in the preseason (1-7 last two years).
  • Jeff Fisher is 21-19 in the preseason.
  • Jeff Fisher is 6-4 in Week 1 preseason.


  • Prediction: Titans 12, Redskins 7.
    Titans -3 (.5 Units). -- Incorrect; -$55
    Under 35.5 (1 Unit). -- Correct; +$100
    Redskins 14, Titans 6.




    Chicago Bears (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0).
    Line: Texans by 1. Over-Under: 32.5.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    Gary Kubiak looks like he cares about the preseason, so the Texans are worth a shot here. Keep scrolling down to see more totals for today.


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Lovie Smith is 7-6 in the preseason.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-1 in the preseason.


  • Prediction: Texans 17, Bears 10.
    Texans -1 (.5 Units). -- Incorrect; -$55
    Under 32.5 (1 Unit). -- Incorrect; -$110
    Bears 20, Texans 19.




    Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0).
    Line: Ravens by 3.5. Over-Under: 31.5.

    Monday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    It seems like the Ravens always beat the Eagles in the preseason. I'm not sure if that's true, but it always seems that way.


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Andy Reid is 12-20 in the preseason.
  • Brian Billick is 19-12 in the preseason.


  • Prediction: Ravens 20, Eagles 10.
    Ravens -3.5 (1 Unit). -- Correct; +$100
    Under 31.5 (1 Unit). -- Incorrect; -$110
    Ravens 29, Eagles 3.




    Denver Broncos (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0).
    Line: 49ers by 3. Over-Under: 35.

    Monday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A.

    Love the Broncos here. Check out Mike Shanahan's preseason record.


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Mike Shanahan is 37-15 in the preseason.
  • Mike Shanahan is 10-2 in Preseason Week 1 w/Broncos.
  • Mike Nolan is 4-4 in the preseason.


  • Prediction: Broncos 24, 49ers 10.
    Broncos +3 (4 Units - Double Money Pick). -- Correct; +$400
    Under 35 (1 Unit). -- Correct; +$100
    Broncos 17, 49ers 13.


    Other Totals


  • Falcons/Jets Under 32 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
  • Patriots/Buccaneers Under 33.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
  • Rams/Vikings Under 35 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100

  • Packers/Steelers Under 35 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
  • Jaguars/Dolphins Under 34 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
  • Chiefs/Browns Under 34.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
  • Panthers/Giants Under 34.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
  • Cardinals/Raiders Under 35 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110

  • Seahawks/Chargers Under 36.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 1-1
    Bears: 0-2
    Bucs: 1-1
    49ers: 1-1
    Eagles: 0-2
    Lions: 1-1
    Falcons: 0-2
    Cardinals: 1-1
    Giants: 2-0
    Packers: 1-1
    Panthers: 0-2
    Rams: 1-1
    Redskins: 1-1
    Vikings: 1-1
    Saints: 1-1
    Seahawks: 1-1
    Bills: 1-1
    Bengals: 0-2
    Colts: 0-2
    Broncos: 1-1
    Dolphins: 2-0
    Browns: 2-0
    Jaguars: 0-2
    Chargers: 0-2
    Jets: 1-1
    Ravens: 0-2
    Texans: 2-0
    Chiefs: 2-0
    Patriots: 2-0
    Steelers: 1-1
    Titans: 1-1
    Raiders: 2-0
    Divisional: 4-4 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 0-2 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 3-2 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 6-2 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 2-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 2-1 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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