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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2010




NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)

NFL Picks (2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (0-3)
Line: Bengals by 6.5.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Week 4 preseason games are both special and meaningless. They're special in that the same teams play each other every year. For example, the Bengals and Colts have clashed in their final preseason tilts every late August/early September since 2003. However, none of those contests have meant anything because neither Peyton Manning nor Carson Palmer has played much, if at all.

With Manning on the sidelines, you might guess that the Bengals have dominated this exhibition rivalry. And you'd be right. Check out the scores from the past seven years:

2009: Bengals 38, Colts 7
2008: Bengals 27, Colts 7
2007: Bengals 14, Colts 6
2006: Bengals 20, Colts 3
2005: Bengals 38, Colts 0
2004: Bengals 16, Colts 13
2003: Bengals 20, Colts 21

Looking at the results of the past five years, are you concerned at all that -6.5 is a big spread? I'm not. Going by the results, Cincinnati would have covered that number in each of the previous five preseasons.

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month because there are three certainties in life - death, taxes and the Colts not showing up for their final preseason game.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 16-16 in preseason games.
  • Marvin Lewis is 6-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Caldwell is 1-6 in preseason games.
  • Jim Caldwell and Tony Dungy are 1-7 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 31, Colts 10
    Bengals -6.5 (7 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770
    Bengals 30, Colts 28




    New York Jets (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 2.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Andy Reid and Tony Dungy have a lot in common. They both support the drowning and electrocution of dogs, and neither takes their final exhibition game seriously. Big Red is 2-9 in Week 4 of the preseason. Much like the Colts with the Bengals, the Eagles always lose to the Jets.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Rex Ryan is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 1-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Andy Reid is 18-29 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-9 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 13
    Jets +2 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
    Jets 21, Eagles 17





    Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
    Line: Steelers by 5.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Tomlin has dominated this preseason rivalry in his three meetings with the Panthers. He's beaten them 21-10, 19-16 and 19-3. Besides, he still hasn't figured out who is quarterback is going to be, so all three signal-callers vying for the job will be really focused. Let's just hope crap rookie receiver Emmanuel Sanders doesn't cause two pick-sixes again.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 12-4 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • John Fox is 19-16 in preseason games (4-11 since 2007).
  • John Fox is 4-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Panthers 10
    Steelers -5.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 19, Panthers 3





    Washington Redskins (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
    Line: Cardinals by 5.5.

    Thursday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I don't understand how the Cardinals are favored in this contest, let alone by 5.5 points. In his three Preseason Week 4 games, Ken Whisnehunt has shown no interest in winning, suffering defeats of 19-0, 28-14 and 21-3. That 19-0 score was a defeat to Josh McDaniels, who doesn't care about winning in the preseason either.

    There's some uncertainty surrounding Mike Shanahan because he's with a new team, but he was 10-2 between 1997 and 2008 in Preseason Week 4 in Denver.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 43-20 in preseason games since 1997.
  • Mike Shanahan is 10-2 in Preseason Week 4 games since 1997.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 4-11 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 0-3 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Cardinals 6
    Redskins +5.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Cardinals 20, Redskins 10




    2014 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
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    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
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    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
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    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
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    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
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    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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