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Preseason Week 4, 2008



Seriously, what is going on here? Every year since I've started picking preseason games, I've always hit at least 60 percent. It's been the polar opposite these past two weeks. If I were a conspiracy theorist (which I am), I would suggest that Vegas found out about my Preseason Coaching Records tactic, and told some officials and coaches to throw these games. But that could never happen in sports, right? Then again, it seemed like Tim Donaghy was coaching the Colts when Joseph Addai had an unforced fumble, Dallas Clark dropped two balls and the defense didn't seem interested in covering Buffalo's wideouts on third down. Oh, did I say Tim Donaghy? I meant Tony Dungy. I apologize. They're spelled about the same, my mistake.



New York Jets (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 3.

Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: .
I've been doing terribly this preseason, which I find inexplicable (read the note above for more). However, I'm going to continue to use this system because it's worked so well in the past. I'm not going to let two bad weeks deter me. If it becomes three bad weeks; so be it.

Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Eric Mangini is 7-4 in preseason games.
  • Eric Mangini is 2-0 in preseason Week 4 games.
  • Andy Reid is 15-24 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-7 in preseason Week 4 games.


    Prediction: Jets 20, Eagles 10
    Jets +3 (8 Units - August Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$800




    Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Washington Redskins (3-1)
    Line: Redskins by 3.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: .
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.


    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Jack Del Rio is 16-7 in preseason games.
  • Jack Del Rio is 4-1 in preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Zorn is 3-1 in preseason games.


    Prediction: Jaguars 16, Redskins 10
    Jaguars +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100






    Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
    Line: Colts by 3.5.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: .
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 4-1 in preseason Week 4 games.
  • Tony Dungy is 1-5 in preseason Week 4 games.
  • Tony Dungy is 10-19 in preseason games.


    Prediction: Bengals 26, Colts 10
    Bengals +3.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400




    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
    Line: Texans by 1.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: .
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Jon Gruden is 5-1 in preseason Week 4 games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 1-1 in preseason Week 4 games.


    Prediction: Buccaneers 10, Texans 7
    Buccaneers +1 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








    San Diego Chargers (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
    Line: 49ers by 2.

    Friday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: .
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Norv Turner is 9-6 in preseason games.
  • Norv Turner is 3-0 in preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike Nolan is 7-8 in preseason games.


    Prediction: Chargers 20, 49ers 10
    Chargers +2 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200




    Denver Broncos (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
    Line: Cardinals by 3.

    Friday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: .
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Mike Shanahan is 40-19 in preseason games.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 2-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 9-2 in preseason Week 4 games.


    Prediction: Broncos 17, Cardinals 7
    Broncos +3 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500






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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 1-4 (-$1,010)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 2-0 (+$1,000)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2014): 9-5 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2014): -$110

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (+$145)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-26, 55.2% (+$800)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 6-9-1, 40.0% (-$1,260)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 89-69-2, 56.4% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$810

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 4-6
    Bears: 5-5
    Bucs: 8-2
    49ers: 3-6
    Eagles: 6-4
    Lions: 3-6
    Falcons: 5-5
    Cardinals: 5-5
    Giants: 3-7
    Packers: 7-2
    Panthers: 5-6
    Rams: 5-5
    Redskins: 7-3
    Vikings: 8-2
    Saints: 4-5
    Seahawks: 4-6
    Bills: 4-6
    Bengals: 4-7
    Colts: 5-5
    Broncos: 6-4
    Dolphins: 6-3
    Browns: 5-3
    Jaguars: 5-5
    Chargers: 3-7
    Jets: 6-4
    Ravens: 4-5
    Texans: 5-5
    Chiefs: 7-2
    Patriots: 5-5
    Steelers: 6-5
    Titans: 5-3
    Raiders: 3-7
    Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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