Dolphins (4-6) at Lions (2-8). Line: Dolphins by 3. Over-Under: 39.
Thursday, 12:30 ET
HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Dolphins -2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Dolphins -3½.

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), G Jeno James, DT Keith Traylor, CB Will Poole (IR). Lions: OUT: RB Kevin Jones*, WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DE James Hall (IR), DT Shaun Rogers (SUSP), LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), S Idrees Bashir.

Remember last year’s Thanksgiving debacle between the Falcons and the Lions? The game was so bad, I think my dad switched to Hollywood Squares on the Game Show Network; I’m not really sure because I slipped into a coma. I’m guessing my dad gave up on Whoopi Goldberg, because he went outside to mow the lawn. Thanks for ruining our Thanksgiving, Detroit.

Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again. Joey Harrington was brutal in that contest, so it’s hard to believe that he has commanded the Dolphins to this unceremonious three-game winning streak. Harrington threw for 254 yards and a touchdown last week, which is pretty phenomenal when you consider he only received two rushing yards from Ronnie Brown. That said, Harrington will be able to depend on Brown this week, as the Dolphins running back will be up against the league’s Xth-ranked ground defense. Detroit has registered only 18 sacks this season, so Miami should be able to move the chains at will.

I still don’t get how Detroit’s offense mustered just 10 points at Arizona. Keep in mind that it put up 30 against the Falcons two weeks ago. With Kevin Jones questionable, it’s hard to imagine the Lions duplicating that performance. The Dolphins are third against the run, and pressure the quarterback well.

Miami’s the better team – no question. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll win. As I mentioned below, Steve Mariucci was fired because of Detroit’s horrendous performance last Thanksgiving. Believe me, the Lions know they have to stay competitive with the Dolphins. Plus, can you imagine what would happen if they lost to Harrington? There would be fire-Matt Millen riots everywhere.

Note: Since I've posted the three Thanksgiving games extra early, these picks may change. Make sure you check back on Wednesday night to make sure I'm sticking with my predicted sides.


The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

The Lions fired Steve Mariucci because his team was embarrassed last Thanksgiving. Rod Marinelli knows he has to win this game. The Dolphins are hot, but they're not going anywhere.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
This new section of my predictions will explore the public perception of each team, and how this game is being bet.

The Dolphins have won three in a row, so the public will continue to jump all over them, especially against the Lions, who lost to the Cardinals.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 64% (About 86,000 online bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving Day hosts are 8-6 ATS since 1999.
    • Lions are 6-14 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Dolphins -2½.
    • Opening Total: 40.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael, Jon Kitna, Roy Williams.
    • Sit Em: Kevin Jones*.

    Prediction: Lions 24, Dolphins 20. (Lions +3).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Dolphins 27, Lions 10.




    Buccaneers (3-7) at Cowboys (6-4). Line: Cowboys by 11. Over-Under: 39.
    Thursday, 4:15 ET
    HAPPY THANKSGIVING

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Cowboys -9½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Cowboys -12.

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms, DT Anthony McFarland (TRADE). QUESTIONABLE: DE Simeon Rice. Cowboys: OUT: LB Greg Ellis, S Marcus Coleman (CUT), KR Tyson Thompson (IR).

    Millions of Americans will be falling asleep after their Thanksgiving dinner, and it won’t be because of the tryptophan. I’m telling you, if I miss any part of the Chiefs-Broncos battle, I’m going to sue the NFL for putting this garbage on national TV.

    I have no idea how the Buccaneers are going to score. They could barely get anything going at home against a depleted Redskins squad. Now they have to go into Dallas with a rookie quarterback and hang with the Cowboys? Dallas is fifth versus the run, so Bruce Gradkowski will have to carry his offense. Good luck with all that.

    How great has Tony Romo been? He’s been amazing to watch, and he looks so calm and composed in the pocket. He’s the real deal. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, who yield 210 passing yards per contest, no thanks to the 14 total sacks they’ve garnered this campaign, they have the unenviable task of defending him – and Julius Jones, Marion Barber III, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten. Good luck with all that.

    Two edges Tampa Bay may have: The team is excited about playing in its first Thanksgiving game in franchise history, and the Cowboys could be caught looking ahead to their battle against Dallas next week. But as I’ve said repeatedly on this Web site, Bill Parcells rarely looks ahead.


    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Dallas won its biggest game of the season against Indianapolis last week. This contest is only a few days later, so I'm not sure how focused the team will be. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is playing hard despite its 3-7 record.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Cowboys very public team and they're on national TV, so I'm expecting every square bettor to be on them.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 65% (84,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
    • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving Day hosts are 8-6 ATS since 1999.
    • Two Homes (Win): Bill Parcells is 1-3 ATS at home following a home win.
    • Weak Arm: Bruce Gradkowski is 1-2 ATS on the road.
    • Buccaneers are 5-15 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.
    • Cowboys are 17-9 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
    • Opening Line: Cowboys -11.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Sunny, 75 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Cowboys Offense and Defense.
    • Sit Em: Buccaneers Offense and Defense, and non-tryptophan-induced comas.

    Prediction: Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 10. (Cowboys -11).
    Correct: Cowboys 38, Buccaneers 10.




    Broncos (7-3) at Chiefs (6-4). Line: Chiefs by 1½. Over-Under: 38½.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET
    HAPPY THANKSGIVING

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Broncos -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Broncos -1.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Broncos: OUT: OT Matt Lepsis (IR), DE Courtney Brown (IR). Chiefs: OUT: QB Trent Green, OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Kevin Sampson, G Brian Waters, DT John Browning (IR), LB Derrick Johnson. QUESTIONABLE: TE Tony Gonzalez*.

    I have to say that it’s a relief to have the Broncos and Chiefs playing on Thanksgiving, as three of the other four teams playing on Thursday have a combined record of 9-21. Unfortunately, everyone might pass out before we even make it to 8:00. Here’s to hoping we get there. Good luck, and Godspeed.

    It sounds bizarre to state this, but I think Kansas City may have figured out Denver’s rushing attack. I’m not just coming out with that out of the blue; in their Week 2 meeting, the Broncos managed less than four yards per carry with both Tatum and Mike Bell. Was Denver flat, or has Kansas City’s stop unit improved enough to contain the Broncos? That’s the key to victory for the host. If the Chiefs can put the clamps on the Bells, Jake Plummer will be forced to carry his offense without the luxury of his patented play-action bootlegs. Regardless, Plummer has been an abomination this year; he has more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10), his completion percentage (54.3) is pedestrian, and his quarterback rating is 69.7.

    The Chiefs struggled to move the chains last week, but you can attribute that to Trent Green’s return to the lineup. Now that the veteran signal caller has gotten his feet wet, he should be able to help his team score more points. It’ll start with Larry Johnson, who will attempt to match LaDainian Tomlinson’s performance (20 carries, 105 yards, three touchdowns) against the Broncos last week. If that occurs, Green will have an easier time throwing into an overrated Denver secondary.

    We all know how raucous Arrowhead is, but can you imagine that venue on a Thanksgiving night? It’ll be absolute mayhem. As if the Broncos didn’t have enough trouble playing there already. With the public pounding the visitor, let’s side with the hungry host.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both teams hate each other and will bring 100 percent.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    Action should be about 50/50, as both teams are coming off disappointing performances last week.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 64% (63,500)

    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
    • History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings.
    • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving Day hosts are 8-6 ATS since 1999.
    • Two Homes (Win): Herman Edwards is 2-5 ATS at home following a home win.
    • Broncos are 14-11 ATS vs. AFC West opponents since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Broncos -1.
    • Opening Total: 38½.
    • Weather: Clear, 50 degrees. Mild wind: 11 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Javon Walker, Larry Johnson.
    • Sit Em: Jake Plummer.

    Prediction: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17. (Chiefs -1½).
    Double Money Pick.
    Correct: Chiefs 19, Broncos 10.




    Saints (6-4) at Falcons (5-5). Line: Falcons by 3. Over-Under: 48.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Falcons -2½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Falcons -2.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Saints: OUT: FB Mike Karney, TE Ernie Conwell, G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), P Mitch Berger (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Marques Colston*, TE Ernie Conwell, CB Fred Thomas, S Bryan Scott. Falcons: OUT: WR Brian Finneran (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR), CB Jason Webster, CB Kevin Mathis (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Todd Weiner, DE John Abraham, DT Grady Jackson, DT Jonathan Babineaux, CB Jimmy Williams.

    I wonder if there was an agenda behind Jim Mora Sr.’s comments about Michael Vick being a coach-killer. Maybe Jim Mora Jr. went up to his dad and said, “Hey pops, can you go on the radio and call Vick a ‘coach-killer.’ This guy’s killing me. I want to put Matt Schaub in, but my boss will send me off to the guillotine if I do. Maybe your comments will make him see the light. Oh, and I’ll tell the media that you’re a senile old man, but I don’t really think that. I love you dad!” You never know…

    Vick has been terrible ever since declaring himself an MVP candidate, so I can’t really blame either Mora for doing that. But I actually blame Mora Jr. for not running the ball enough against Baltimore; Vick, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood combined for 24 carries, even though that number needs to be closer to 35. Or make that 45 – the Saints’ defense has been exposed for the fraud it really is; it is now ranked 30th against the run. Dunn, Norwood and Vick should all have big days, as long as the Falcons keep things on the ground.

    Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been very good either, but at least it has an excuse; both Patrick Kerney and John Abraham have been missing from the lineup. That will continue to haunt the Falcons, as Drew Brees will continuously fire downfield successfully to Joe Horn and Marques Colston. Atlanta will have to stay honest with Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister coming out of the backfield.

    This is a tough divisional game between two rivals who hate each other. It’ll be close, so I’m taking the points. Besides, the road team usually dominates this series, although that trend buckled in Week 3 behind all of the emotion in the Superdome.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Falcons would like revenge for their previous loss at New Orleans, but it's not like the Saints have any margin for error. Both teams will bring it.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    All of the Michael Vick-haters should be going against the Falcons.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 60% (40,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • History: Falcons have won 16 of the last 23 meetings.
    • Saints are 32-21 ATS on the road since 2000.
    • Saints are 20-14 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Falcons -3.
    • Opening Total: 47½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler, Saints Offense.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 21. (Saints +3).
    Correct: Saints 31, Falcons 13.




    Steelers (4-6) at Ravens (8-2). Line: Ravens by 3. Over-Under: 39.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Ravens -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Ravens -7.

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: Steelers: DOUBTFUL: KR Willie Reid. QUESTIONABLE: RB Najeh Davenport, WR Hines Ward*. Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR). QUESTIONABLE: G Keydrick Vincent, LB Ray Lewis*, LB Adalius Thomas.

    If you’re not aware of this, I write for a paper in central Pennsylvania, so I cover both the Steelers and Eagles. I’m waiting to write an obituary for both teams, but I can’t do that until Pittsburgh loses again. I pronounced the Steelers dead going into the Colts playoff game last year, and consequently received tons of hate mail. Not that I minded the actual hate mail – it’s just that my inbox was already cluttered with e-mails like “Dear Mr. Walter, I am a lawyer in South Africa, and I’m informing you that your late relative, Mr. Edward Walter passed away, and wishes to give you his entire estate.” Idiots, can’t you at least find out my last name before you send these out?

    It’s difficult to speculate how prepared Ben Roethlisberger will be for Baltimore’s defense. He threw for 277 yards last week, but three of his passes were intercepted. He has now thrown 17 picks this campaign, which was inconceivable prior to his motorcycle accident. With Roethlisberger fated to operate in a plethora of long-yardage situations – the Ravens are second against the run – Baltimore’s physical stop unit could coax him into heaving a few more interceptions. Maybe even a pick-six.

    Pittsburgh’s defense really needs to step up to give the team a chance to win this game. That could be possible, as most of the Ravens’ offense has recently been smoke-and-mirrors – i.e. great kickoff and punt returns, defensive turnovers. The Steelers’ sixth-ranked ground defense will put the clamps on Jamal Lewis, which will force Steve McNair to beat them. McNair has played well lately, but excluding a 373-yard performance at Tennessee, he hasn’t been anything special.

    There is no question that the Ravens are the better football team. But why is this line only three? Shouldn’t it be at least six or seven? Vegas is dying for the public to take Baltimore, and it’s working – 88 percent of the money is going toward that side. I’m not taking the bait.


    The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
    Another fierce divisional matchup. Given each team's record, this contest means more to the Steelers.

    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    The Ravens are four games ahead of the Steelers, and they're only favored by three? I'll be shocked if every square bettor isn't on Baltimore.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 66% (51,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
    • History: Home Team has won the last 6 meetings.
    • Two Homes (Win): Brian Billick is 4-2 ATS at home following a home win.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 66-53 ATS on the road following a road win (Bill Cowher 11-6 regardless).
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 30-9 as a starter (24-15 ATS).
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 8-3 ATS as an underdog.
    • Ravens are 12-2 ATS in November home games since 2000.
    • Ravens are 18-8 ATS in November.
    • Ravens are 35-9 SU; 28-16 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2000 (23-36 SU vs. non-losing).
    • Opening Line: Ravens -3.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Sunny, 60 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Hines Ward, Todd Heap, Ravens Defense.
    • Sit Em: Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis.

    Prediction: Steelers 21, Ravens 20. (Steelers +3).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Ravens 27, Steelers 0.




    Jaguars (6-4) at Bills (4-6). Line: Jaguars by 3. Over-Under: 35.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Jaguars -4½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Jaguars -4½.

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: QB Byron Leftwich, RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR), LB Mike Peterson (IR), S Donovin Darius (IR). DOUBTFUL: CB Terry Cousin. QUESTIONABLE: WR Ernest Wilford*, CB Brian Williams. Bills: OUT: G Chris Villarrial, S Troy Vincent (CUT). QUESTIONABLE: RB Willis McGahee, WR Josh Reed.

    The Fred Taylor Guarantee of the Week: Fred Taylor made a lot of noise in the locker room when he was approached by reporters. He made an extremely bold prediction that had others gasping in disbelief. “There are going to be a lot of people waiting in line for the PlayStation 3,” Taylor never told reporters. “And not only that – the PlayStation 3 is going to be ridiculously expensive, man. You can quote me on that. I guarantee it.”

    Let’s step out of Taylor’s bizarre-o world and into this game. The Jaguars are playing extremely well with David Garrard ever since he stepped in for Byron Leftwich. But the two most important players on Sunday will be Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, both of whom will look to trample Buffalo’s 25th-ranked run defense. Garrard will also be able to scramble whenever he’s not taking advantage of the Bills’ secondary, which permits 213 passing yards per contest.

    J.P. Losman looked inexplicably great last week, as he threw two 83-yard touchdowns to Lee Evans in the first quarter. But that was Houston, and this is Jacksonville. Unlike the Bills and Texans, the Jaguars stop both the pass (183 yards per game) and the run (ninth in the NFL). I can’t see Buffalo scoring 24 points this time around.

    Since Oct. 1, the Jaguars have beaten everyone they’ve played, with the exception of Houston. I don’t think that will change after this game. You may notice that a large portion of the money is on Jacksonville. But that doesn’t really matter here; this is the least bet contest this week.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    The Jaguars won on Monday night, but luckily do not have a tough opponent next week, meaning they will be focused for this game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    The public is probably frustrated with Jacksonville at this point -- casual bettors watched the Jaguars lose to the Texans twice, and beat the likes of Dallas, Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Jets. I don't expect a large volume of bets on this game.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 73% (40,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 55-81 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; BILLS scored a GW TD with 9 seconds left.
    • Bills are 20-7 ATS in November home games the previous 27 contests.
    • Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Opening Line: Jaguars -3.
    • Opening Total: 36.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars Defense.
    • Sit Em: Bills Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Jaguars 27, Bills 10. (Jaguars -3).
    Incorrect: Bills 27, Jaguars 24.




    Bengals (5-5) at Browns (3-7). Line: Bengals by 3. Over-Under: 42½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Bengals -3½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Bengals -4.

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), G Bobbie Williams, C Rich Braham, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Levi Jones, LB Brian Simmons, CB Deltha O'Neal, CB Keiwan Ratliff, S Dexter Jackson. Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim, CB Gary Baxter. QUESTIONABLE: RB Reuben Droughns*, WR Braylon Edwards*, TE Kellen Winslow Jr.*, G Cosey Coleman, DT Ted Washington, LB Willie McGinest, CB Leigh Bodden, S Brian Russell.

    This was supposed to be the 16th meeting between once-promising quarterbacks Tim Couch and Akili Smith. Oops. Rumor has it that Couch is a motivational speaker at “My Life Sucks Anonymous,” while Akili is strolling through the streets of New York, asking for loose change. I could be wrong though.

    I guess it’s safe to say that Carson Palmer and Charlie Frye are better than those two bums. The former, just two weeks removed from throwing 440 yards and three touchdowns, will need to be on his A-game in order to beat the Browns, who have improved more than any other team since the beginning of the year, excluding San Francisco. After a terrible start, Cleveland has figured out how to stop the run, restricting Warrick Dunn and Willie Parker to less than four yards per carry the past two weeks. Rudi Johnson won’t be able to do much, which is why Palmer needs to be perfect.

    Frye has also made strides; he has thrown just one interception this month. That bodes well going into the Battle of Ohio LXVII, as Cincinnati’s notoriously porous stop unit won’t have any luck stopping him. The Bengals are 19th versus opposing ground attacks, and have surrendered 254 passing yards per contest. I’m guessing that the absences of Odell Thurman and David Pollack have something to do with that.

    It looks like the public still has no respect for the Browns. Vegas set a seemingly soft line with Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite. Casual bettors are pounding the Bengals, so we’re going to side with the hungrier squad. Besides, the Bengals could be caught looking ahead to next week’s matchup against Baltimore. We all know they’re a mentally weak team prone to things like that.


    The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
    The Bengals finally got the win they were looking for. Are they stuck in a Sandwich Situation, given that they host Baltimore next week? It's tough call; they're only 5-5.

    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    We'll have to see if the public has picked up on how much the Browns have improved. Casual bettors have gambled heavily against Cleveland the past few weeks.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 94% (62,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 66-53 ATS on the road following a road win (Marvin Lewis 3-0).
    • History: Bengals have won the last 4 meetings.
    • Opening Line: Bengals -3.
    • Opening Total: 42.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind: 11 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reuben Droughns, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr.
    • Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Browns 27, Bengals 24. (Browns +3).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Bengals 30, Browns 0.




    Cardinals (2-8) at Vikings (4-6). Line: Vikings by 6½. Over-Under: 38½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Vikings -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Vikings -6.

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: DE Bert Berry (IR). Vikings: OUT: FB Tony Richardson, DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Marcus Johnson, G Artis Hicks, CB Cedric Griffin.

    Back in 1998, when the Vikings were scoring about 500 points per game, and the Cardinals were in the playoffs, this looked like a really appealing matchup. I’m not sure what happened, but I’m really pissed off right now. Don’t even talk to me.

    If only Minnesota could score five points – the team’s offense is in a funk, but playing the Cardinals should be able to cure that. Arizona is 22nd against the run, which should allow Chester Taylor to break the 100-yard barrier. This will set up play-action opportunities for Brad Johnson. Remember, the Cardinals’ pitiful secondary won’t have the support of pass rusher Bert Berry, who is out for the year.

    The Vikings’ defense is still playing pretty well, which is not good for Matt Leinart, who has yet to cover a game on the road. Edgerrin James won’t do anything besides count his money on the sidelines, which seems to be the case every week, meaning Leinart will once again have to beat his opponent by himself. Minnesota’s secondary is yielding 227 passing yards per contest, so Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald should be able to get open on many occasions.

    The Vikings need to win this contest to snap a four-game losing streak. If they go down to the lowly Cardinals, their playoff dreams are over.


    The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
    If the Vikings don't win this game, they're done. They know they should have beaten the Dolphins, so they know what they need to accomplish. The Cardinals, meanwhile, can go back to being worthless now that they've won a game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    I can't see the public unloading on this game heavily; neither the Cardinals nor the Vikings look appealing right now.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 69% (35,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
    • Weak Arm: Matt Leinart is 0-2 ATS on the road.
    • Vikings are 9-4 ATS at home since 2005.
    • Opening Line: Vikings -6.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Chester Taylor, Jermaine Wiggins.
    • Sit Em: Edgerrin James and his wads of cash, 1998 – thanks for deceiving me, you jerk.

    Prediction: Vikings 20, Cardinals 10. (Vikings -6½).
    Incorrect: Vikings 31, Cardinals 26.




    Texans (3-7) at Jets (5-5). Line: Jets by 4½. Over-Under: 39½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Jets -6½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Jets -7.

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), OT Zach Wiegert (IR), LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins, KR Jerome Mathis (PUP). DOUBTFUL: DE Antwan Peek. Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: RB Cedric Houston, FB B.J. Askew, CB Andre Dyson, CB David Barrett.

    Have I mentioned how pissed I am that Chad Pennington threw two interceptions deep in Chicago territory? Take one back, and we would have had a Jets cover or push. No, I won’t let this go, and I won’t calm down. One day I’m going to do something drastic, like toilet-paper Pennington’s house. Ha! I’ll get my revenge, just you watch.

    Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised that Pennington threw a pair of picks; he has more of them (11) than touchdowns this season (10). However, he should revert back to the way he played in his victory over New England; the Texans lack the pass rush and secondary to stop any aerial attack. Remember, they surrendered two 83-yard touchdowns to J.P. Losman. That’s pathetic.

    Houston has more of an offense this year, thanks to the short-route offense Gary Kubiak installed. Carr is no longer taking five- and seven-step drops, and getting clobbered on every down. Carr should have some success, as the Jets have as many sacks as the Texans (18). New York is also woeful versus opposing ground attacks; the team is 28th in that category.

    There’s a reason the Jets have yet to beat anyone by more than eight points; they have a horrible habit of going into a lackadaisical prevent defense when they establish a lead. So, even if the Jets start quickly, you know that they’ll let Houston back in the game. Eric Mangenius indeed.

    Saturday Night Note: The line has dropped to 4½ from six, so I've taken away the Money Pick tag.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
    If it wasn't for two Chad Pennington interceptions, the Jets could have beaten the Bears. However, they lost, and they need to rebound this week.

    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    See the Arizona-Minnesota explanation.
  • Percentage of money on NY Jets: 60% (37,500)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Opening Line: Jets -5.
    • Opening Total: 40.
    • Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: David Carr, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Laveranues Coles.
    • Sit Em: Any chance a 10-point lead holds up in this game.

    Prediction: Jets 20, Texans 17. (Texans +4½).
    Incorrect: Jets 26, Texans 11.




    49ers (5-5) at Rams (4-6). Line: Rams by 4½. Over-Under: 44½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Rams -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Rams -3.

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.
    Injuries: 49ers: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Antonio Bryant* (DUI), OT Jonas Jennings, CB Shawntae Spencer. Rams: OUT: OT Orlando Pace* (IR), G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum (IR). QUESTIONABLE: G Adam Timmerman.

    Running game in a funk? Can’t get anything out of your disgruntled back? Don’t worry – just call 1-800-STL-RAMS, and schedule a game with St. Louis. You’ll have it working in no time! Yeah, I know, I wrote this under “Extra Points,” but you know what, after losing my Pick of the Month courtesy of two of the worst throws in Chad Pennington’s career, I don’t care.

    Frank Gore is just what the doctor ordered for the Rams defense. OK, maybe not. Gore, who trampled Seattle’s defense for 212 rushing yards, could compile 300 versus St. Louis’ stop unit, which is now ranked behind Indianapolis. A vastly improved Alex Smith will be able to utilize play-action into a beleaguered Rams secondary. That said, Smith may not have Antonio Bryant on Sunday; Bryant was charged with DUI on Tuesday night.

    If the Rams want to win this game, they need to establish Steven Jackson early and often. The Seahawks couldn’t get anything going on the ground last week, mainly because Shaun Alexander was getting his feet wet. But Jackson should be able to expose San Francisco’s 24th-ranked run defense. This will give Marc Bulger time to locate Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce downfield. A key matchup will be linebacker Manny Lawson on left tackle Adam Goldberg. Lawson needs to make a few big plays if the 49ers are to win this contest.

    San Francisco is the toast of the league, and the Rams have lost five straight, yet the latter is favored by six? Everyone and their mother is on the 49ers. I hope I’m wrong about this, because I have a 100:1 shot on San Francisco to win the NFC West, but the team could be flat following its huge victory over Seattle. And remember, St. Louis always plays well on its fast turf.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    Tough call... this could be a Let-Down Alert for the 49ers, but it's not like they're in first place; the team is 5-5 and it still stands one game behind the Seahawks, who play the lowly Packers this week.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    The 49ers still don't get any respect. Either the public continues to fade them, or they unload on the +6, which seems like a gift. We'll have to find out.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 73% (43,000)

    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
    • History: 49ers have won the last 3 meetings.
    • Opening Line: Rams -6.
    • Opening Total: 46.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Frank Gore, Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce.
    • Sit Em: Antonio Bryant* (DUI), 49ers Defense.

    Prediction: Rams 34, 49ers 17. (Rams -4½).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Rams 20, 49ers 17.




    Panthers (6-4) at Redskins (3-7). Line: Panthers by 4. Over-Under: 36.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Panthers -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Panthers -7.

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.
    Injuries: Panthers: OUT: OT Travelle Wharton (IR), C Justin Hartwig, DT Jordan Carstens, LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: RB DeShaun Foster*, G Mike Wahle, CB Ken Lucas. Redskins: OUT: RB Clinton Portis*. QUESTIONABLE: WR Santana Moss*.

    I can’t think of a lead for this dreadful game, so this is my weekly Heroes paragraph. I’m sure most of you don’t know this, but I write the first paragraphs of each of my predictions on Monday, so I can concentrate on breaking down the games on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, keep in mind that I’m typing this on Monday. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “Save the cheerleader” isn’t referring to Claire. I think all of the heroes need to save the other cheerleader pictured with Claire in that one scene. I could be way off, but it’d be a nice twist. Besides, the girl in the paintings doesn’t really look like Claire.

    Oops, I was a bit off, but the other cheerleader died, so at least I got something right. Let’s hope I have a better prediction for this game. Washington’s defense played admirably last week, restricting Tampa Bay to just three points in the first half. But that was the Buccaneers; the Panthers are a much different story. The Redskins have registered only 13 sacks this year, meaning Jake Delhomme will have all the time in the world to locate Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson downfield. Carolina ran the ball well last week – DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster combined for 177 rushing yards – so the team may have similar success against the Redskins’ 18th-ranked ground defense.

    Jason Campbell played rather well on Sunday – 19-of-34 for 196 yards and two touchdowns – but the Panthers will be able to break him down on film. They’ll make sure Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker get to know Campbell really well. Also, Clinton Portis is out for the year; Ladell Betts and T.J. Duckett totaled 44 yards on 12 carries last week. That number could be even less against Carolina.

    This is one of the tougher games on the board. On one hand, Campbell versus Carolina’s defense seems like a no-brainer. On the other, there is a lot of action on the Panthers. Washington hasn’t given up on Joe Gibbs just yet, while Carolina could be a little lackadaisical in this spot. Plus, thinking you have a no-brainer generally means you’re on the wrong side.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    It's hard to believe the Panthers are now in control of their division. I'm not sure if they'll show up against the Redskins, who are playing tough without Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    I don't think anyone wants a part of the Redskins right now; I expect at least 80 percent of the money to be on the Panthers, who have won two in a row.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 84% (50,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Opening Line: Panthers -4½.
    • Opening Total: 36.
    • Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson.
    • Sit Em: Ladell Betts, T.J. Duckett.

    Prediction: Panthers 13, Redskins 10. (Redskins +4).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Redskins 17, Panthers 13.




    Raiders (2-8) at Chargers (8-2). Line: Chargers by 14. Over-Under: 43½.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Chargers -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Chargers -14.

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: Raiders: OUT: RB LaMont Jordan (IR), OT Robert Gallery, LB Grant Irons. DOUBTFUL: WR Jerry Porter. QUESTIONABLE: G Barry Sims. Chargers: OUT: OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Shawne Merriman (SUSP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR).

    Randy Moss wants to get traded, but since he’s not running over anyone in his car, will Al Davis take him seriously? How many last-minute interceptions will Aaron Brooks throw this week? Is Art Shell alive? Which jump suit will Al Davis wear on Sunday? Find out this week on the Oakland Raiders Show!

    It’s hard for me to say this, but Aaron Brooks actually played well last week. Let’s see how long that’ll last. We all saw what San Diego’s front seven did do to Oakland’s offensive line; the Chargers registered a whopping nine sacks against Brooks and Andrew Walter in Week 1. Shawne Merriman won’t be in the lineup, but that doesn’t mean the Chargers won’t dominate the trenches.

    LaDainian Tomlinson rumbled for 131 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting, as the Chargers won, 27-0. Keep in mind that Philip Rivers was making his first start, and threw only 11 passes. Imagine what San Diego will do to Oakland’s defense this time around. This is going to get really ugly…

    …Or maybe not. There is tons of money going against the Raiders, which is a weekly event. And as usual, Vegas profits. Oakland has covered five of the past six weeks. I like this fading-the-public thing. I’m taking the Raiders, even though this feels like I’m setting my money on fire.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    Big win for the Chargers last week, as they finally won in Mile High. Let-Down Alert? Duh... Oakland wants revenge for being embarrassed on Monday Night Football in Week 1.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    Casual bettors love San Diego and hate Oakland. There should be tons of action on the Chargers.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 88% (51,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
    • History: Chargers have won the last 6 meetings.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 42-26 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002. (Art Shell 3-0).
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 75-52 ATS on the road following a road loss.
    • Chargers are 8-3 ATS in November home games since 2001.
    • Chargers are 16-7 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Marty Schottenheimer.
    • Opening Line: Chargers -13½.
    • Opening Total: 43.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Chargers Offense and Defense.
    • Sit Em: Aaron Brooks, LaMont Jordan, Randy Moss, Raiders Defense, Al Davis' black jump suit, Al Davis' white jump suit.

    Prediction: Chargers 24, Raiders 13. (Raiders +14).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Chargers 21, Raiders 14.




    Giants (6-4) at Titans (3-7). Line: Giants by 3. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Giants -7½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Giants -5.

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: Giants: OUT: WR Amani Toomer (IR), OT Luke Petitgout, DE Michael Strahan*, LB LaVar Arrington (IR). DOUBTFUL: CB Sam Madison. QUESTIONABLE: DE Osi Umenyiora, DT Barry Cofield, LB Brandon Short. Titans: OUT: WR David Givens (IR), TE Ben Troupe, DE Antwan Odom, DT Rien Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Travis LaBoy, CB Andre Woolfolk, CB Reynaldo Hill.

    I mentioned this in my Top 10, but how awkward was Joe Theismann when Jay-Z was in the booth? In case you missed it, Jay-Z, Mike Tirico and Tony Kornheiser were discussing the different parts of New York. Theismann, who felt left out of the conversation, unceremoniously turned to Jay-Z and said, “I’m from northern Jersey.” Jay-Z shot Theismann a quick glance, replied “ha, yeah…” and gave Tirico a weird look that made him appear as though he were thinking, “Wow, what’s this loser still doing on ESPN?” Not that Theismann’s a loser or anything… Ha, yeah.

    The Giants have to stop the bleeding. The past three weeks, they snuck by Houston, and lost to the Bears and Jaguars on national TV. Eli Manning struggled in those three contests, throwing for 530 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. And it’s not just his fault – Plaxico Burress is dropping passes like there’s no tomorrow. However, New York was able to move the chains late against the Jaguars by utilizing a no-huddle offense. Don’t be surprised if Tom Coughlin uses that early and often. Manning, who is being called a bust by all of the talking heads on ESPN, NBC, FOX and CBS, will look to prove his doubters wrong on Sunday. Tiki Barber will help; the Titans are 26th versus the run.

    Meanwhile, the Giants are fourth against opposing ground attacks, so Travis Henry won’t be able to do anything. Once again, it’ll be up to Vince Young, who embarrassed an overrated Eagles defense last week. If New York were completely healthy, I’d say Young wouldn’t be able to do anything against an extremely focused and determined Giants stop unit. But that’s not the case; New York is missing Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, LaVar Arrington and Sam Madison.

    As you can tell by “The Vegas,” people are still not taking the Titans seriously. Jeff Fisher is doing an incredible job with a rookie quarterback whom I thought was a lock to be a bust.

    Friday Morning Note: I changed this pick to Giants -3. After watching Dallas on Thanksgiving, New York knows it has to win this contest to keep pace with the Cowboys, especially coming off back-to-back losses.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    The Titans are gaining confidence with every win. The Giants need some of that, as they've dropped back-to-back games on national TV. If they lose this contest, they'll be 6-6 with a loss to Dallas.

    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    The public has watched the Giants drop two games in a row on national TV, so I don't think a lot of people will be betting on them against the Titans, who are coming off an 18-point win as a 13-point underdog.
  • Percentage of money on NY Giants: 72% (40,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
    • Post-Monday Night Misery: Tom Coughlin is 2-5 ATS after Monday Night Football.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 75-52 ATS on the road following a road loss (Tom Coughlin 5-7).
    • Opening Line: Giants -3.
    • Opening Total: 42½.
    • Weather: Sunny, 69 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey.
    • Sit Em: Drew Bennett, Both Receivers.

    Prediction: Giants 27, Titans 23. (Giants -3).
    Incorrect: Titans 24, Giants 21.




    Bears (9-1) at Patriots (7-3). Line: Patriots by 4½. Over-Under: 37½.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET
    Walter's Game of the Week

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Patriots -1.

    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Bears: OUT: DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Mike Brown (IR). Patriots: OUT: S Rodney Harrison, S Mel Mitchell. QUESTIONABLE: TE Daniel Graham, CB Ellis Hobbs, CB Asante Samuel, S Eugene Wilson, P Josh Miller.

    How much is NBC regretting not making this the Sunday Night Football game? But even with Donovan McNabb’s injury, NBC still has a better matchup than ESPN. And speaking of NBC, here are a few reasons why Sterling Sharpe told Jerome Bettis, “I will crack yo skull!” 1. Every member of the Sterling Sharpe species throughout the world uses this phrase to say “hello.” 2. His Packers lost 35-0. 3. Sterling suddenly realized he had the lowest IQ on the set, and needed to take it out on the only guy who couldn’t get the producers to fire him. 4. Sterling is really Tai Diggs, and relives days over and over, so nothing he does has any consequence. 5. Sterling is trying to get fired so he can walk around and crack some skulls – starting with mine because I make fun of him all the time. I’m buying a helmet as you read this.

    Speaking of cracking skulls, my head’s going to explode if I keep trying to figure out which Rex Grossman will show up. One week he’s great, the next he stinks. I will give him this though: He has played prolifically in every big game Chicago has participated in. And this is a big game, as the Bears can prove they’re the best team in the league. Grossman will have to do a lot of the work, given New England’s ability to shut down the run. However, the Patriots’ secondary is banged up, meaning Grossman may find Muhsin Muhammad, Desmond Clark and Mark Bradley downfield on multiple occasions.

    The Patriots need to establish a consistent ground attack if they are to win this contest. That sounds like a bizarre thing to say, but the Bears are actually ranked 23rd against the run. Even the Jets were able to move the chains with Cedric Houston. If Bill Belichick decides to just drop back and pass, which is a strategy he employed against the Colts, his team will lose; Chicago’s front seven will simply overpower New England’s offensive line.

    I think I’ve figured out the Patriots pretty well the past few years. They do the bare minimum to win. Since they’re two games up on the Jets, they don’t need a victory. The Bears don’t have to triumph either, but they’re out to prove that they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    The Bears can prove they're the top team in the NFL with a win in Foxboro. Meanwhile, the Jets lost last week, so the Patriots have a comfortable two-game lead in the AFC East.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Two very public teams going head-to-head should create 50-50 action.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 52% (54,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
    • Third Road Alert: Teams in their third-consecutive road game are 9-14 ATS since 2000.
    • Bears are 14-5 ATS in November since 2001.
    • Patriots are 30-20 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
    • Patriots are 18-6 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
    • Tom Brady is 75-23 as a starter (61-35 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Patriots -3.
    • Opening Total: 37.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Muhsin Muhammad, Mark Bradley, Bears Defense.
    • Sit Em: Thomas Jones.

    Prediction: Bears 24, Patriots 20. (Bears +4½).
    Correct: Patriots 17, Bears 13.




    Eagles (5-5) at Colts (9-1). Line: Colts by 10. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 8:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Colts -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Colts -14.

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: Eagles: OUT: QB Donovan McNabb* (IR), DE Jevon Kearse (IR). Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), DT Corey Simon (IR), DT Montae Reagor, S Mike Doss (IR).

    Funniest phone call I heard on my local sports-talk radio station after the Eagles lost to the Titans: “Andy Reid is grossly overweight, and grossly out of shape. No wonder the Eagles were flat. They would have been more prepared if Reid were in shape. Instead, they’re fat and lethargic like he is.” Philadelphia’s season is over, and the fans have to resort to fat jokes. And you know what? I can’t blame them.

    I’m disappointed that Reid made Jeff Garcia the starting quarterback over A.J. Feeley. The latter has enjoyed success before in Reid’s system, and is much better than Garcia, who has been a shell of his former self since he and Terrell Owens parted ways. The only way the Eagles will stay competitive is if Reid seriously attempts to establish a running game. That won’t happen, however, as he is too stubborn to stray from his philosophy.

    Prior to Donovan McNabb’s injury, I was looking forward to this contest, just so I could unload on Indianapolis. Peyton Manning has always had an edge against Jim Johnson, scoring at will against one of the elite defensive coordinators in the league. That said, McNabb’s injury could nullify Manning’s focus.

    The public is pounding this conspicuously low line, and for good reason. Garcia stinks, the Eagles are in shambles, and the Colts are coming off a loss. Keep in mind, however, that Indianapolis might not take Philadelphia seriously. And besides, the Eagles were competitive against the Giants the first game McNabb missed last year. If the Bills can stick with the Colts with J.P. Losman on the road, I think Philadelphia can cover with Garcia.

    Sunday afternoon note: It's 5:20 p.m. right now, and it looks like Vegas will be losing a lot of money this week, as the Ravens, Bengals, 49ers, Saints, Giants and Jets all covered. The line on this game just went up to 10. I'm upgrading this to a Double Money Pick.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    When Donovan McNabb was sidelined last year, the Eagles played tough for a few weeks. That should be the case again. However, the Colts are coming off a rare loss, and will likely be focused.

    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    All of the squares will be on Indianapolis in the wake of Donovan McNabb's season-ending injury.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 92% (73,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
    • History: Peyton Manning is 2-0 ATS vs. Jim Johnson.
    • Weak Arm: Jeff Garcia is 1-5 ATS on the road since 2003.
    • Eagles are 11-7 ATS in November since 2001.
    • Eagles are 6-14 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Colts -12.
    • Opening Total: 46.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Brian Westbrook, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark.
    • Sit Em: Eagles Defense.

    Prediction: Colts 24, Eagles 16. (Eagles +9).
    Double Money Pick
    Incorrect: Colts 45, Eagles 21.




    Packers (4-6) at Seahawks (6-4). Line: Seahawks by 11. Over-Under: 45.
    Monday, 8:30 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Seahawks -11.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Seahawks -13.

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
    Injuries: Packers: OUT: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR), WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). DOUBTFUL: OT Mark Tauscher, LB Nick Barnett, CB Will Blackmon. QUESTIONABLE: RB Vernand Morency, TE David Martin, CB Charles Woodson. PROBABLE: QB Brett Favre. Seahawks: OUT: DT Marcus Tubbs, LB D.D. Lewis, S Mike Green (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Sean Locklear, C Robbie Tobeck, DT Rocky Bernard. PROBABLE: QB Matt Hasselbeck*.

    Here’s my weekly preview of a potential conversation on Monday Night Football: Kornheiser: It’s a shame that Aaron Rodgers couldn’t play tonight. He could have become a star! Theismann: I talked to Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, and he told me Aaron Rodgers could be a star in this league. Kornheiser: Uhhh… Joe, that’s what I said. Theismann: I talked to Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, and he told me Aaron Rodgers could be a star in this league. Kornheiser: Hey Mike, I think he’s broken. Tirico: Now, now, guys, let’s be civil here. Theismann: I talked to Packers head coach… Kornheiser: I had Aaron Rodgers on my fantasy team, MY FANTASY TEAM! Theismann: I talked to, I talked to, I talked, I… Kornheiser: Yeah, he’s definitely broken. Let’s get a new Theismann robot up here ASAP.

    If Rodgers and Brett Favre were out, the Packers would have to go with Ingle Martin. But it really shouldn’t matter. The Seahawks are an angry squad that is coming off a loss to what they perceive to be an inferior franchise. I expect maximum effort from their stop unit. Although they’re among the worst teams at stopping the run, Seattle should be able to put the clamps on Ahman Green, who has failed to reach three yards per carry the past two weeks. Favre will have to take care of things by himself, and we all know what happens when he tries to do that. The Seahawks’ monstrous pass rush (35 sacks) will force him into a few poor throws.

    Matt Hasselbeck has been upgraded to probable, which is good news for the Seahawks, given Seneca Wallace’s recent struggles. The Packers stop opposing ground attacks pretty well, but their secondary is a disgrace, surrendering 241 passing yards per contest. Seattle just has way too many talented receivers for Green Bay to handle.

    The Seahawks have suddenly found themselves in a heated divisional race. If they would have beaten the 49ers last week, this contest wouldn’t mean anything to them. But they know they have to win this game to build some distance between themselves and San Francisco. My Survivor Pool Pick came down to Seattle and San Diego, but I didn’t go with the latter because it could be flat after beating Denver at Mile High.


    The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
    The Seahawks didn't take the 49ers seriously, and consequently lost. They're an angry team, and the Packers are standing in the way.

    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    The Packers will always be a public team as long as Brett Favre is under center. However, Favre may not play. There won't even be a line until his status is certain, so we'll have to wait and see what happens.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 67% (50,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
    • Brett Favre is 17-12 on Monday Night.
    • Brett Favre is 16-13 ATS as an underdog since 2002.
    • Opening Line: Seahawks -10.
    • Opening Total: 46.
    • Weather: Cloudy, 25 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, Seahawks Defense.
    • Sit Em: Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander.

    Prediction: Seahawks 31, Packers 17. (Seahawks -11).
    Survivor Pool Pick (11-0)
    Incorrect: Seahawks 34, Packers 24.


    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


    Cowboys: 8-2
    Eagles: 7-3
    Giants: 8-2
    Redskins: 6-3

    Bears: 6-4
    Lions: 8-2
    Packers: 8-1
    Vikings: 6-4

    Buccaneers: 3-6
    Falcons: 5-5
    Panthers: 5-3
    Saints: 4-6

    49ers: 8-2
    Cardinals: 2-8
    Rams: 6-3
    Seahawks: 7-3

    Bills: 6-4
    Dolphins: 6-3
    Jets: 6-4
    Patriots: 5-4

    Bengals: 4-5
    Browns: 5-3
    Ravens: 4-6
    Steelers: 5-5

    Colts: 4-5
    Jaguars: 6-3
    Texans: 9-1
    Titans: 6-3

    Broncos: 1-8
    Chargers: 5-5
    Chiefs: 4-6
    Raiders: 3-6

    Divisional Games: 30-25
    Trend Edge: 15-17
    Game Edge: 24-31
    Psychological Edge: 13-11
    Double Edge: 9-10
    Triple Edge: 0-2


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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


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    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick
    2014 Season:
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