Browns (4-8) at Steelers (5-7). Line: Steelers by 7. Over-Under: 33.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Steelers -8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Steelers -7.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim, DE Orpheus Roye, CB Gary Baxter. QUESTIONABLE: QB Charlie Frye, TE Kellen Winslow Jr.*. Steelers: OUT: WR Hines Ward*, WR Cedrick Wilson, S Troy Polamalu, S Ryan Clark.

Did anyone see the NFL Network’s commercial for next week’s Cleveland-Pittsburgh matchup? Part of it went like this: “Charlie Frye leads the Browns into Pittsburgh...” Wow, how exciting. Why not just say: “A very mediocre quarterback leads one of the worst teams in the league against a Super Bowl champ that has lost all of its luster. Which team will look worse? Will you fall asleep while watching this game? Find out Thursday!” Can we get flex scheduling for Thursday night too?

Now we don’t even get to see Frye play! How ridiculous is that? Derek Anderson, who had a four-leaf clover in his pocket, commanded the Browns to an improbable 14-point comeback by scrambling for 44 yards, and throwing two touchdowns. But that was a Chiefs defense that was unprepared for Anderson’s running ability. Joey Porter and the Steelers will be ready. It’s a shame too; Frye played well in the first meeting. I just don’t trust Anderson on the road, especially with a defunct ground game – the Steelers are fifth in that department.

When these two squads clashed on Nov. 19, Willie Parker carried the ball only 16 times, compared to 44 pass attempts by Ben Roethlisberger. I’m sure Bill Cowher will keep that in mind. He needs to give Parker at least 25 carries, given how porous Cleveland’s run defense is. After all, Kansas City scored every time it had the ball on Sunday. Trent Green threw for 297 yards and four touchdowns, so you know the Browns’ secondary can be exposed.

There’s a slight public edge with the Browns, given that two out of three bettors are taking Pittsburgh. They could be on the correct side, however. Cleveland is coming off an emotional overtime victory, and doesn’t need this contest as much as Pittsburgh. Plus, as I previously mentioned, I don’t trust Anderson making his first start on the road.


The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

The Steelers know they have to win every single game just to have a shot at the playoffs, but I don't think they'll take Cleveland seriously with Carolina coming up next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
This new section of my predictions will explore the public perception of each team, and how this game is being bet.

The Browns are a public fade, so there should be plenty of action on the Steelers.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 55% (About 24,000 online bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
    • History: Steelers have won 12 of the last 13 meetings.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-27 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Romeo Crennel 1-3).
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 58-81 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; BROWNS won in overtime.
    • Steelers are 13-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 31-10 as a starter (25-16 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Steelers -9.
    • Opening Total: 36½.
    • Weather: Snow showers, 25 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 22 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Willie Parker, Heath Miller, Steelers Defense.
    • Sit Em: Browns Offense, Anything in Derek Anderson’s pocket working this time.

    Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 17. (Steelers -7).
    Correct: Steelers 27, Browns 7.




    Giants (6-6) at Panthers (6-6). Line: Panthers by 3. Over-Under: 41.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Panthers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Panthers -3.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Giants: OUT: WR Amani Toomer (IR), OT Luke Petitgout, DE Michael Strahan, LB LaVar Arrington (IR). Panthers: OUT: OT Travelle Wharton (IR), C Justin Hartwig, DT Jordan Carstens, LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: QB Jake Delhomme*.

    Once again, watching John Fox’s play-calling on a Monday night felt like I was slitting my wrist and taking shots of cyanide at the same time. I have no idea what his thought process was. Maybe something like this: “Hmmm… I have this really great receiver – a guy who has the potential to become a locker-room virus if he doesn’t get the ball. But if he does, he can score at any instant. Let’s try running the ball behind my injury-ridden offensive line with my rookie back. I’ll mix it up by throwing short passes to my tight end, who wouldn’t start for any other team in the NFL. Oh, and when I’m going for the go-ahead-touchdown, I’ll call the same play as I did in the first half. That’ll fool them all!” Please, ESPN, no more Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. It’s only a matter of time before the cyanide kicks in.

    I’d like to see Fox utilize the same game plan he utilized against the Giants, who have a seventh-ranked ground defense, but a pass rush missing its top two players and a beleaguered secondary. Smith killed New York in the playoffs last year, catching 10 passes for 84 yards and a touchdown. I just have a bad feeling that Smith will finish with something like four receptions for 44 yards. If the Panthers wish to qualify for the postseason, they need to give him the ball.

    Conversely, Eli Manning needs a complete reversal of what occurred in that contest; he was 10-18 for 113 yards, three interceptions and a fumble. But Manning doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who can overcome a dominant team very quickly. Remember, his older brother had problems with the Dolphins, Titans and Patriots for years. Carolina couldn’t stop the pass on Monday night, but that’s because Julius Peppers was absolutely humiliated by Eagles right tackle Jon Runyan. If Peppers can get by Giants right tackle Kareem McKenzie, Manning could be in for a long day. If not, New York will win.

    After watching the Panthers embarrass themselves on national TV, the public wants nothing to do with them. That’s why everyone is pounding the Giants. I have a feeling everyone’s wrong.

    Friday Morning Update: Jake Delhomme is probably out. This pick could be changed by tonight. Let me think about it.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both squads are in dire need of a win.

    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    The Panthers stink! At least that's what everyone thinks after watching them choke like dogs at Philadelphia. There should be plenty of action on the Giants.
  • Percentage of money on NY Giants: 83% (28,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
    • Post-Monday Night Magic: John Fox is 3-0 ATS after Monday Night Football.
    • Opening Line: Panthers -3.
    • Opening Total: 39½.
    • Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey.
    • Sit Em: DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Giants 20, Panthers 17. (Giants +3).
    Correct: Giants 27, Panthers 13.




    Raiders (2-10) at Bengals (7-5). Line: Bengals by 10½. Over-Under: 39½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Bengals -12.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Bengals -12.

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    Injuries: Raiders: OUT: RB LaMont Jordan (IR), OT Robert Gallery, LB Grant Irons. DOUBTFUL: WR Jerry Porter, DE Lance Johnstone. QUESTIONABLE: G Barry Sims. Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), OT Levi Jones, G Bobbie Williams, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR). DOUBTFUL: C Rich Braham. QUESTIONABLE: C Eric Ghiacuic.

    This week on the Oakland Raiders Show! Aaron Brooks finally learns how to fetch, but the real juicy part involves Randy Moss and Chris Henry being in the same city. They’re bound to cause a whole lot of trouble! Cops beware! You’re fated to get run over or thrown up on this week! Cincinnati is sure to set the world record for most arrests in a city during a 7-day span. How many arrests will there be? Find out this week on the Oakland Raiders Show!

    This matchup may also set the record for most bone-headed plays. The Raiders should have blown out the Texans last week, but they ceaselessly shot themselves in the foot with unnecessary penalties, costly turnovers and missed field goals. Oakland’s defense is currently surrendering only 143 passing yards per contest, thanks to an improved secondary and an adequate pass rush. If Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and company are the least bit flat off their Thursday night victory over the Ravens, they will have trouble scoring.

    Houston’s offensive line set the record for most sacks allowed with 76 in 2004. Oakland is on pace for 77. Justin Smith will be breathing down Brooks’ neck the afternoon. If the Raiders are to succeed on Sunday, they must establish Justin Fargas early and often; Cincinnati is 16th against the run, although the team has been better in that department the past few weeks.

    This seems like the kind of game I’d make my Survivor Pick. But remember, the Raiders play extremely well as huge underdogs because they have an enormous chip on their shoulder; if everyone made fun of you, wouldn’t you have one as well? Prior to the Texans debacle, they came within one score of beating Denver, Kansas City and San Diego, with the latter two games on the road. Cincinnati will undoubtedly be looking past Oakland, as it has Indianapolis and Denver the next two weeks. Plus, it always helps that the public is pounding the host. Call me crazy, but I think the Raiders can pull the outright upset.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    This could be the Trap Game of the Year. The Bengals just had a very emotional victory over Baltimore. After this "easy" contest, they play Indianapolis and Denver. Oakland played San Diego, Kansas City and Denver tough recently.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    Everyone watched the Bengals' dominant defense nearly pitch two shutouts. People will be banking on them making it three.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 70% (39,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
    • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 16-25 ATS since 2002 (Art Shell 0-1).
    • Opening Line: Bengals -10.
    • Opening Total: 40.
    • Weather: Sunny, 50 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Both Defenses.
    • Sit Em: Raiders Offense, Being a police officer in Cincinnati this week.

    Prediction: Raiders 17, Bengals 16. (Raiders +10½).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Bengals 27, Raiders 10.




    Vikings (5-7) at Lions (2-10). Line: Lions by 1. Over-Under: 40.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Vikings -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Vikings -3.

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    Injuries: Vikings: OUT: FB Tony Richardson, DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). DOUBTFUL: RB Chester Taylor*. QUESTIONABLE: G Artis Hicks. EXPECTED TO START: QB Brad Johnson. Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DE James Hall (IR), DT Shaun Rogers (IR), LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), S Idrees Bashir. DOUBTFUL: CB Fernando Bryant.

    Brooks Bollinger’s new nickname is the “King of Backdoor Covers.” He led his team to a backdoor cover like 500 times last year. He would have done so again, but Brad Childress foolishly pulled him in favor of Tarvaris Jackson. But anyway, whenever I look at Bollinger now, I’m reminded of the King from the Burger King commercials. Does anyone else think the King looks exactly like Tony Kornheiser? They should have the King in the Monday Night Football booth. Kornheiser would find out that he has a long-lost brother separated at birth, while Theismann would go on contradicting himself, and making comments that cause awkward silences. It would be a beautiful moment.

    Speaking of Bollinger, Brad Childress has not announced who his starting quarterback will be. But does it really matter? Brad Johnson is playing like dog feces (more on that in my Bills-Jets pick); while Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson will undoubtedly struggle on the road. Childress needs to give Chester Taylor the ball as much as possible, as the Lions are ranked 22nd against the run. This will open up play-action opportunities for whomever the quarterback is; Detroit can neither get to opposing signal callers, nor stop any sort of aerial attack.

    Don’t ask me how the Lions scored 21 on New England’s defense last week. I have no idea. But looking at the stats, Jon Kitna found some way to throw for 314 yards. That’s a good sign going into this game because the Vikings have an abysmal secondary and a non-existent pass rush. Why does that sound familiar?

    I can’t believe the Lions are favored. I said that last week about the Raiders, and went against them. But I’m not doing that here – people weren’t pounding Houston. Bettors are, however, placing tons of money on the Vikings. If the books wanted equal action on this contest, they would have made the Vikings a 3-point favorite. Why is Detroit -3?


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    At least both teams are still trying hard...

    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    This would have been one of the lower-volume contests of the day, but I think square bettors will fade the Lions as a favorite.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (27,500)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
    • History: Vikings have won 14 of the last 15 meetings.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 79-56 ATS on the road following a road loss.
    • Opening Line: Lions -3.
    • Opening Total: 38½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Chester Taylor, Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Mike Furrey.
    • Sit Em: Vikings Passing Attack, Kevin Jones.

    Prediction: Lions 20, Vikings 17. (Lions -1½).
    Incorrect: Vikings 30, Lions 20.




    Titans (5-7) at Texans (4-8). Line: Texans by 1. Over-Under: 42.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Titans -3.

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: Titans: OUT: WR David Givens (IR), TE Ben Troupe, DE Antwan Odom, DT Rien Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB LenDale "Bob Evans" White, G Benji Olson, DT Robaire Smith. OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), OT Zach Wiegert (IR), LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins, KR Jerome Mathis (PUP).

    Let’s see… Reggie Bush scored four touchdowns… Vince Young single-handedly beat the Colts… Whom did the Texans pass up on in April’s draft? And who was the guy responsible? It couldn’t be the CBS’ double-secret inside correspondent Charley Casserly, could it? Nah… I mean, I expect Casserly to say things like, “The New England Patriots’ greatest need is at the quarterback position;” or “Al Davis is considering putting in Art Shell in at the quarterback position.” But passing up on Young and Bush for a guy who compiled all of his sacks against the likes of Eastern Maryland and the University of Alaska at Hawaii is just completely absurd.

    To be fair, that guy leads the team in sacks – with a whopping 4½. Good move, Texans. Mario Williams and the rest of his teammates won’t be able to do anything against Vince Young, who’s unstoppable right now. He beat the Colts last week by tossing two touchdowns and scrambling for 78 yards. I see no reason why he won’t be successful against Houston’s pitiful defense. Meanwhile, Travis Henry will be bursting through wide-open running lanes; the Texans yield 4.2 yards per carry.

    David Carr has played better this year, but he’s still as inconsistent as they come. A week after throwing for 321 yards, he was 7-of-14 for 32 yards in Oakland. Carr also struggled in Tennessee on Oct. 29, and was actually benched in favor of Sage Rosenfels. That could happen again, as the Titans put the clamps on Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning and Peyton Manning the past three weeks. Houston also lacks the ground attack to expose Tennessee’s front seven.

    The Titans are unquestionably the superior team. But I think they’ll be flat after pulling two come-from-behind victories against the Manning brothers. It doesn’t help that every single square bettor on this planet is pounding them.


    The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
    The Titans and Texans hate each other, so expect 100-percent effort from both squads. That said, Tennessee, coming off grueling back-to-back, come-from-behindwins, could be flat. Definitely a Let-Down Alert.

    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    Casual bettors are going to start lining up to bet on Vince Young.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 85% (40,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • History: Titans have won 7 of the 9 meetings.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 58-81 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; TITANS kicked a GW FG with 7 seconds left.
    • Vince Young is 5-4 as a starter (7-2 ATS).
    • Texans are 5-15 ATS after a win.
    • Opening Line: Texans -3.
    • Opening Total: 41½.
    • Weather: Retractable Roof.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Vince Young, Travis Henry, Andre Johnson.
    • Sit Em: Texans Running Backs and Defense.

    Prediction: Texans 28, Titans 24. (Texans -1).
    Incorrect: Titans 23, Texans 20.




    Colts (10-2) at Jaguars (7-5). Line: Colts by 1. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Colts -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Colts -3½.

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), TE Dallas Clark, DT Corey Simon (IR), DT Montae Reagor, S Mike Doss (IR). QUESTIONABLE: Everyone else. Jaguars: OUT: QB Byron Leftwich, RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR), LB Mike Peterson (IR), S Donovin Darius (IR). PROBABLE: Everyone else.

    This has nothing to do with this Colts-Jaguars matchup, but I woke up Friday morning to go to work, and I flipped on 610 WIP, Philadelphia’s sports-talk radio station. Brandon Lang was on the air, and he was talking about the similarities between him and Jeff Garcia. No, they’re not both “rats,” although Terrell Owens might have something to say about that. Lang was commenting on a fight two hot women were having over Garcia. One was his current fiancée, the 2004 Playmate of the Year (*pumps fists in anger*) and the other was his ex-girlfriend.

    Anyway, Lang said that he sends all of the gorgeous women that approach him over to his girlfriend, who takes care of them sexually, if you know what I mean. So, in honor of the guy who had the Vikings-related meltdown last week: “F***ing Two for the Money, you c***sucker piece of s*** for not f***ing showing these lesbian scenes, and f*** you Jeff Garcia for dating f***ing Carmella DeCesare, whom I’d like to f***! F*** everyone!”

    I don’t think that’ll ever get old. But anyway, think back to the Week 3 battle between these two squads. Jacksonville dominated the game, but lost because of a pair of missed field goals and two Byron Leftwich interceptions. Leftwich was skittish in the pocket, so it’s a good thing he’s no longer the starting signal caller of the Jaguars. David Garrard won’t be as afraid of Dwight Freeney, given that he can simply scramble downfield if he needs to. Garrard will also have the help of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, who combined for 177 yards on 34 carries in that 21-14 Colts victory.

    Dominic Rhodes was less successful, compiling just 48 yards on 14 opportunities. Joseph Addai is playing a lot better than Rhodes, but the fact that Jacksonville’s stop unit is sixth against the run shouldn’t change things. Peyton Manning will get his yards, but if the Jaguars can force him into a few third-and-long situations, the Colts may have to punt seven times like they did in Week 3.

    This contest doesn’t mean much to the Colts, whereas this is basically do-or-die for Jacksonville. Indianapolis dominates this series, but I think the Jaguars pull this one out. After all, this game is basically their Super Bowl.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    This game obviously means more to the Jaguars, who are tied for the two wild-card spots with about 300 different teams.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    Despite maintaining two losses, the Colts are a very publicly backed squad. I'm expecting at least 80 percent action on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 83% (57,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
    • History: Eight of the last nine meetings decided by 8 points or less (Colts 7-2).
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 79-56 ATS on the road following a road loss (Tony Dungy 7-2 regardless).
    • Colts are 22-13 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
    • Opening Line: Colts -1.
    • Opening Total: 42½.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 69 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, David Garrard, Fred Taylor.
    • Sit Em: Joseph Addai, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Jaguars 20, Colts 17. (Jaguars +1).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Jaguars 44, Colts 17.




    Ravens (9-3) at Chiefs (7-5). Line: Chiefs by 3. Over-Under: 36.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Chiefs -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Chiefs -3.

    The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR), PR B.J. Sams. Chiefs: OUT: OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Kevin Sampson, G Brian Waters, DT John Browning (IR), LB Derrick Johnson. QUESTIONABLE: OT Kyle Turley.

    Herman Edwards admitted he was scared of the Browns because his team was coming off an emotional Thanksgiving victory, while Cleveland would be looking to atone for an embarrassing 30-0 loss to Cincinnati. If Herm had the foresight to predict a difficult game, why didn’t he do something about it? He should have planted a fake quote by Charlie Frye in the Kansas City Star. Maybe something like this: “The Chiefs? What a joke! I’m going to throw for 200 touchdowns. After I do that, I’m going to run over to Trent Green and kick him in his manhood! And our defense? Yeah, Larry Johnson will be wearing diapers by the time this one is over!” Seriously, if Herm did that, his team wouldn’t have experienced a letdown.

    I’m willing to bet Kansas City’s stop unit shows up here. Even though they surrendered 31 points to Cleveland, they were able to shut down the run, which bodes well going into this contest. We all know Baltimore struggles to score if it can’t pound the ball with Jamal Lewis. The Chiefs, ranked 10th against ground attacks, will stuff him in the backfield on multiple occasions, forcing a shaky Steve McNair into unfavorable situations.

    As great as Baltimore’s defense is, there are some players who can’t be contained. I’m referring to Larry Johnson. If you don’t believe me, just think back to when LaDainian Tomlinson rumbled for 97 yards against the Ravens. If Johnson breaks a few big gains, Trent Green will orchestrate a few play-action fakes to Tony Gonzalez. Baltimore also lacks the personnel to put the clamps on the All-Pro tight end.

    It’s tough to go against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, especially with the public backing the opposing squad. This game means much more to Kansas City; they need a victory to stay alive in the wild-card chase, while Baltimore is sitting comfortably atop the AFC North.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    Baltimore is still sitting comfortably atop its division, while the Chiefs need a win to stay afloat in the playoff hunt.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Some people will look at the Arrowhead angle of this game. Others will stay away. This should be close to 50-50 action.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 52% (39,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 79-56 ATS on the road following a road loss (Brian Billick 10-3 regardless).
    • Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Chiefs -3.
    • Opening Total: 37½.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind: 18 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez.
    • Sit Em: Jamal Lewis.

    Prediction: Chiefs 24, Ravens 17. (Chiefs -3).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Ravens 20, Chiefs 10.




    Patriots (9-3) at Dolphins (5-7). Line: Patriots by 3½. Over-Under: 37.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Patriots -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Patriots -3½.

    The Game. Edge: .
    Injuries: Patriots: OUT: LB Junior Seau (IR), S Rodney Harrison, S Eugene Wilson, S Mel Mitchell. QUESTIONABLE: RB Laurence Maroney*, WR Chad Jackson, OT Ryan O'Callaghan, LB Don Davis, CB Ellis Hobbs. Dolphins: OUT: RB Ronnie Brown*, G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), G Jeno James, CB Will Poole (IR).

    It’s the battle of the last two teams who played the Lions. Does anyone find it odd that the Dolphins destroyed Detroit while playing on the road, while the Patriots struggled against them at home? Nothing would surprise me at this point. If Joey Harrington throws for 52,000 yards, runs over to Tom Brady, rips out his heart and spikes it in the end zone, I won’t be shocked. If Harrington compiles negative-23 yards, and gets benched in favor of Cleo Lemon, who offers tarot card readings after every play, I won’t be appalled. This is the NFL we’re talking about here.

    The first time these teams met this season, the Patriots had trouble scoring because they couldn’t run the ball with Laurence Maroney or Corey Dillon. That will be the case again, given that Miami has the fourth-best ground defense in the NFL. Brady will once again be forced to carry the team on his shoulders, meaning he’ll have to evade a Dolphins pass rush that has produced 38 sacks in 12 games. Miami’s improving secondary will also hold up its end of the bargain.

    I don’t see the Dolphins scoring much either. Even if Ronnie Brown were able to play, he’d have to find some way around a stop unit that limited him to 39 yards on Oct. 8. Joey Harrington threw for 232 yards and two interceptions in that meeting, but he has played better since then. Harrington needs to be mistake-free if Miami is to pull the upset.

    Brady has always said that the Dolphins give him more trouble than any other team in the NFL. That would explain why New England has always had extreme difficulty winning in South Beach. That trend should continue, as the host needs a victory more than the visitor.


    The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
    Dolphins fans hate the Patriots more than life itself. I think the team shares those feelings. New England doesn't really need a victory in this spot.

    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    New England had trouble with the Lions, but got the job done. The same can't be said about Miami. The public will take the visitor over Joey Harrington.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 79% (45,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
    • History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
    • Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
    • Tom Brady is 77-23 as a starter (61-37 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Patriots -3.
    • Opening Total: 36.
    • Weather: Cloudy, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Tom Brady, Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker.
    • Sit Em: Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown.

    Prediction: Patriots 14, Dolphins 13. (Dolphins +3½).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Dolphins 21, Patriots 0.




    Falcons (6-6) at Buccaneers (3-9). Line: Falcons by 3½. Over-Under: 37½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Falcons -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Falcons -3½.

    The Game. Edge: Falcons.
    Injuries: Falcons: OUT: WR Brian Finneran (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR), CB Kevin Mathis (IR). DOUBTFUL: CB Jason Webster. Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms, DT Anthony McFarland (TRADE). QUESTIONABLE: TE Alex Smith, DT Ellis Wyms, LB Shelton Quarles, CB Juran Bolden.

    In case you missed it, Michael Vick had this to say after his 24-14 victory over the Redskins: “[Jenkins] wasn’t even the read. Sometimes you’ve got to overcome coaching.” In response, Jim Mora Sr. is preparing this statement: “Sometimes you’ve got to overcome a coach-killer. Sometimes you’ve got to overcome the Ron Mexico stuff that comes with it. Sometimes you’ve got to overcome a better quarterback on the bench. Sometimes you’ve got to overcome… playoffs!? Playoffs!? You’re talking about playoffs!? We’re just trying to win a game!” Sorry, Mora Sr. just had a flashback. Don’t worry, though; he’s getting shipped back to the nuthouse after a short-lived escape.

    I just don’t know who Vick is to talk like that; he was just 8-of-16 for 122 yards and two touchdowns against the pitiful Redskins. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled the past five weeks – it has given up 26 points per game – but the unit as a whole has always had success against Vick. In fact, Vick threw for only 92 yards in Week 2, as Atlanta scored just 14 points against the Buccaneers.

    Bruce Gradkowski has been disgustingly horrific the past two weeks, but I attribute that to his inability to play on the road. He’s OK at home; his record at Raymond James is actually 3-1. Can he get his fourth victory there? It’ll be tough, but Tampa Bay needs to establish Cadillac Williams against a defense that couldn’t contain Ladell Betts. Once that occurs, Gradkowski will be able to play-action to Joey Galloway.

    It’s a stretch, but the Buccaneers can win this contest. The Falcons, whom the public is pounding, could be looking ahead to Dallas and Carolina. And as we saw in its losses to Cleveland and Detroit, Atlanta is a squad that is often guilty of playing down to its opponent.


    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Falcons no longer need a win, as they're tied for two wild-card spots. This could be a Look Ahead Alert; they play Dallas and Carolina the next two weeks.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    This contest could have less action than any other game out there. I can't imagine anyone heavily supporting Michael Vick or Bruce Gradkowski.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 86% (42,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
    • History: Buccaneers have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 67-54 ATS on the road following a road win (Jim Mora Jr. 0-2).
    • Buccaneers are 12-3 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.
    • Opening Line: Falcons -1.
    • Opening Total: 38½.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Alge Crumpler, Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway.
    • Sit Em: Michael Clayton.

    Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20. (Buccaneers +3½).
    Incorrect: Falcons 17, Buccaneers 6.




    Eagles (6-6) at Redskins (4-8). Line: Eagles by 1½. Over-Under: 40½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Redskins -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Eagles -3.

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    Injuries: Eagles: OUT: QB Donovan McNabb (IR), DE Jevon Kearse (IR), LS Mike Bartrum. QUESTIONABLE: DE Darren Howard, CB Rod Hood. Redskins: OUT: RB Clinton Portis. QUESTIONABLE: CB Kenny Wright.

    Since I can’t think of anything to say about this matchup, let me declare that ESPN should fire Merrill Hoge, who said the following in August: “The Titans are stuck with Vince Young for the next three years, and they can’t get rid of him, no matter how much they obviously might want to.” I actually agreed with that back then. Hey, we all make mistakes. But it’s an even greater error not to admit you were wrong. In the wake of Tennessee’s victories over the Giants and Colts, Hoge continues to disrespect Young, claiming that he scored his touchdowns with “his eyes closed.”

    I’m not sure what Hoge has against Young; maybe the quarterback didn’t give him an interview or something. But his biased reporting violates the cardinal rule of journalism. ESPN should fire Hoge; no questions asked. And by the way, this situation is indicative of the main problem journalism faces today. Some analysts are afraid of criticizing players because they’ll lose them as contacts. Others badmouth players because they can’t get an interview. Here’s an idea: How about not talking to the players at all? That’s the way it works in Europe, and that’s how it should be here… OK, blood pressure dropping from 500/200. Breathe, Walt, breathe.

    I’m not sure how Jeff Garcia threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns on Monday night. Maybe it was all a bad dream. Whatever it was, it should be able to continue at Washington; the Redskins lack a consistent pass rush (15 sacks) and consequently the ability to stop any sort of aerial attack (221 passing yards per contest). Washington’s defensive forte is its prowess against the run, but that doesn’t really matter because Andy Reid never keeps it on the ground.

    Eagles fans have witnessed their team’s inability to contain opposing running backs for about two months now. The Redskins lost Clinton Portis for the year, but backup Ladell Betts is playing pretty well; he trampled Atlanta’s stop unit for 155 yards on 28 carries. Philadelphia is actually ranked below Washington, so Betts should be able to rip off decent gains as long as his team’s not getting blown out. However, I am concerned about Jason Campbell’s ability to lead his squad against an Eagles secondary that put the clamps on Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson.

    I love it how everyone assumes the Eagles will walk all over the Redskins. Philadelphia had trouble with Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Jacksonville at home. Plus, Washington isn’t just going to roll over and die after losing at the Linc, 27-3. Besides, the Eagles might be looking past them because they have the Giants and Cowboys the next two weeks. This will be a dog fight that could go either way. Definitely the toughest game to pick on the board.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Eagles are somehow in the playoff hunt, so this contest obviously means a lot more to them. Then again, Washington will be looking to avenge its blowout loss to Philadelphia.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    The public is no longer dissing Jeff Garcia; everyone saw him throw for 310 yards and three touchdowns on Monday night. People will be more inclined to throw money on the Eagles than the Redskins.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 71% (29,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
    • History: Eagles have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
    • Post-Monday Night Magic: Andy Reid is 6-3 ATS after Monday Night Football.
    • Weak Arm: Jeff Garcia is 1-6 ATS on the road since 2003.
    • Eagles are 37-21 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
    • Eagles are 16-9 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
    • Eagles are 19-11 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Pick.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Reggie Brown, Donte' Stallworth, Ladell Betts, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley.
    • Sit Em: Correll Buckhalter.

    Prediction: Eagles 23, Redskins 20. (Eagles -1½).
    Correct: Eagles 21, Redskins 19.




    Seahawks (8-4) at Cardinals (3-9). Line: Seahawks by 3. Over-Under: 45½.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Seahawks -6½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Seahawks -6.

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
    Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: C Robbie Tobeck, DT Marcus Tubbs, S Mike Green (IR). DOUBTFUL: C Robbie Tobeck, LB D.D. Lewis. Cardinals: OUT: DE Bert Berry (IR). DOUBTFUL: DT Kendrick Clancy.

    Yawn… Boring game… so, it’s time for my weekly Heroes prediction. So, who’s the hero that’s going to die? I have a feeling it’s going to be someone whom we didn’t know had powers, like Hiro’s Japanese friend. And what’s up with the surprise ending, and what is each hero staring at in the distance? That’s too easy… it’s obviously their new arch-nemesis, Sterling Sharpe, who has an uncanny ability to crack skulls and to make incoherent statements while yelling at the top of his lungs. Damn you, Sterling Sharpe!

    Wow, what an ending. Much more captivating than anything we’ll see in this contest. I don’t know how the Cardinals restricted the Rams to 20 points – they’ve now held only three opponents to less than 21 this year – but that’s unlikely to continue against Seattle. Arizona is 20th against the run, so look for Shaun Alexander to eclipse the 150-yard plateau, setting up play-action opportunities for a hobbled Matt Hasselbeck. It doesn’t help the Cardinals that Alexander is peaking at the right moment.

    Arizona scored only 10 points against Seattle in Week 2, but that was on the road with Kurt Warner at the helm. Matt Leinart is coming off two impressive performances, which could quickly become three. The Seahawks secondary, a group that yields about 210 passing yards per contest, has no hope of containing Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Now if only Arizona had a running game…

    As I’ve alluded to below, this contest means much more to the Cardinals because this is their Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are like 530 games ahead of everyone in the NFC West. Would it really matter if they come out flat and lose?


    The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
    I guess you can call this Arizona's Super Bowl; you know the organization isn't getting there until the 34th century. The Seahawks barely have anything to play for at this point.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    The Seahawks beat the Broncos on National TV, so expect lots of action on them. No one likes the Cardinals.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 64% (40,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
    • History: Seahawks have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 58-81 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; SEAHAWKS kicked a game-winning field goal with 5 seconds left.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 67-54 ATS on the road following a road win.
    • Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Seahawks -3.
    • Opening Total: 45½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Shaun Alexander, Deion Branch, Darrell Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin.
    • Sit Em: Edgerrin James, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 22. (Cardinals +3).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 21.




    Packers (4-8) at 49ers (5-7). Line: 49ers by 4½. Over-Under: 43½.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): 49ers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): 49ers -4.

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.
    Injuries: Packers: OUT: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR), WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). DOUBTFUL: OT Mark Tauscher. 49ers: OUT: TE Eric Johnson, OT Adam Snyder, C Jeremy Newberry (IR), DT Anthony Adams LB Derek Smith. QUESTIONABLE: CB Shawntae Spencer.

    This is a Public Service Announcement for anyone who is thinking about spending $7 to see Van Wilder 2: The Rise of Taj. If you’re going to do that, take out a lighter, ignite those $7, pick up a hammer, and start bashing your skull until you pass out. Trust me, that movie was one of the worst films ever made. Watching it was like I was in a nightmare that I just couldn’t get out of. I’m still having horrible flashbacks.

    Speaking of horrible flashbacks, think the Packers want to forget their 38-10 home loss to the Jets? New York scored on every possession in the first half, thanks to Cedric Houston and his 105 rushing yards. However, what Houston did on Sunday must have been an aberration; Green Bay is just two weeks removed from being ranked ninth against the run. If the stop unit can gather itself and contain Frank Gore, the 49ers will have problems scoring. If not – touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown… Sound familiar?

    Conversely, it’s a certainty that the Packers will be able to establish something on the ground; Ahman Green is still getting the job done, while the 49ers are ranked 23rd in that department. I have faith that Brett Favre will bounce back from a mediocre week. It’ll be tough not to – San Francisco lacks a pass rush and a solid secondary. We all saw what happened in New Orleans last week.

    The last time the 49ers were favored by four or more was 2003. I don’t think they’re ready for that kind of responsibility. Green Bay will be looking to atone for its 28-point loss.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The 49ers still have a glimmer of hope. The Packers, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back from a 28-point home loss.

    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    People will fade the Packers after seeing them get blown out by the Jets. The 49ers were also crushed, but at least they had a lead at one point.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 58% (24,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Opening Line: 49ers -5½.
    • Opening Total: 43½.
    • Weather: Rain, 55 degrees. Mild wind: 12 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Frank Gore.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: 49ers 27, Packers 24. (Packers +4½).
    Correct: Packers 30, 49ers 19.




    Bills (5-7) at Jets (7-5). Line: Jets by 3½. Over-Under: 37.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Jets -3½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Jets -6.

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    Injuries: Bills: OUT: G Chris Villarrial, S Troy Vincent (CUT). Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP).

    I have a bad feeling CBS will be broadcasting this game in my region (Philadelphia) instead of the San Diego-Denver tilt. If that happens, I’m going to light a bad of dog feces on fire and place it in front of CBS’ headquarters. I’m dead serious about this. I’m tired of getting the worst games on TV, and I’m just not going to take it anymore.

    To quote Forrest Gump, J.P. Losman is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re going to get. Sometimes he looks brilliant, throwing consecutive 83-yard bombs to Lee Evans, and other times he fumbles almost every other play. I have a feeling the former Losman will show up at the Meadowlands. I have no faith in a Jets pass rush that has collected only 24 sacks this year. Their secondary isn’t much better. And keep in mind that Willis McGahee may rush for more than 100 yards; New York is 28th against opposing ground attacks.

    It’s a good thing the Jets finally established some sort of running game – Cedric Houston trampled Green Bay’s horrid defense for 105 yards and two touchdowns on only 22 carries. Buffalo’s stop unit is 30th in that department, so the Jets should be able to enjoy a repeat performance from Houston. That will enable Chad Pennington to operate freely in the pocket.

    This is a strange line. The Jets, who are coming off a blowout victory at Lambeau Field, are a slim 4-point favorite against the 5-7 Bills? It just doesn’t make any sense, and looks too way easy. If I learned anything this year, it’s that there is no such thing as “easy” when it comes to sports betting.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
    The Jets need this contest more, but the Bills aren't just going to roll over and die.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    The Jets will receive most of the wagers. I'm not expecting much on Buffalo.
  • Percentage of money on NY Jets: 76% (38,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
    • History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
    • Opening Line: Jets -3½.
    • Opening Total: 37½.
    • Weather: Sunny/clear, 42 degrees. Mild wind: 13 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Chad Pennington, Cedric Houston, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Jets 27, Bills 24. (Bills +3½).
    Correct: Bills 31, Jets 13.




    Broncos (7-5) at Chargers (10-2). Line: Chargers by 7½. Over-Under: 41.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Chargers -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Chargers -7.

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: Broncos: OUT: OT Matt Lepsis (IR), DE Courtney Brown (IR). DOUBTFUL: MLB Al Wilson. QUESTIONABLE: OT Adam Meadows, K Jason Elam*. Chargers: OUT: WR Malcolm Floyd, OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Keenan McCardell*, G Kris Dielman, DE Luis Castillo, LB Randall Godfrey, KR Michael Turner.

    Speaking of dog feces, how crappy did Jay Cutler look against the Seahawks? Did anyone else feel sorry for his dad? He had the expression of: “Wow, my son sucks! He’s definitely the next Kyle Boller. Maybe I should put a paper bag over my head, and walk out of the stadium before he throws another pick-six and disgraces the family name some more.” I thought I’d never say this, but Jake Plummer probably gives the Broncos a better chance of winning.

    As you can tell, I’m not giving the Broncos much of a shot here. They won’t be able to run the ball much versus San Diego’s defense, which is ninth and improving against opposing ground attacks, now that Shawne Merriman is back in the lineup. That means Cutler, a rookie playing on the road in a hostile environment, will be asked to convert a multitude of first downs. Yeah, good luck with that. The Chargers should be able to force at least three turnovers.

    San Diego’s offense obviously won’t be so futile. When these two squads clashed in Denver, LaDainian Tomlinson totaled 105 yards on the ground, and 74 more catching the ball. Now imagine those numbers without Pro Bowl middle linebacker Al Wilson, who suffered a severe injury last week. San Diego should be able to do whatever it wants to on offense.

    The public is favoring the Chargers, so normally I’d tell you to take Denver. But that’s not the case in this spot. Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, has made this line San Diego -9. They want you to take the Broncos, because they know Cutler will be good for about three or four turnovers on the road.


    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    San Diego is tied for first place in the AFC. Denver, however, needs a victory to stay alive in the playoff race.

    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    Everyone saw how poorly Jay Cutler performed. They'll all be picking against him.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 67% (43,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
    • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-27 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
    • Weak Arm: Jay Cutler is 0-0 ATS on the road.
    • Chargers are 16-8 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Marty Schottenheimer.
    • Philip Rivers is 10-2 as a starter (7-5 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Chargers -5.
    • Opening Total: 42.
    • Weather: Showers, 63 degrees. Mild wind: 12 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Chargers Defense.
    • Sit Em: Broncos Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Chargers 30, Broncos 7. (Chargers -7½).
    Survivor Pool Pick (13-0).
    Correct: Chargers 48, Broncos 20.




    Saints (8-4) at Cowboys (8-4). Line: Cowboys by 7½. Over-Under: 47½.
    Sunday, 8:15 ET
    Walter's Game of the Week

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Cowboys -4½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Cowboys -4.

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Saints: OUT: G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), DT Hollis Thomas (SUSP), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), P Mitch Berger (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Joe Horn*, WR Marques Colston*, DE Will Smith. Cowboys: OUT: LB Greg Ellis, S Marcus Coleman (CUT), KR Tyson Thompson (IR).

    Saints defensive tackle Hollis Thomas has been suspended for the remainder of the season because a steroid test came back positive. If you’ve never seen Thomas before, he weighs about 65,000 pounds. Thomas claims that the steroids he took came from his asthma medication. I disagree. I think the steroids he took came from all of the donuts he devours each day. Doctors say that if you eat enough donuts – 50 dozen a day in Thomas’ case – steroids will appear in your body. I can’t really tell you which doctor said that because I just made that up.

    The Thomas suspension is more serious than I just made it sound. He happens to be New Orleans’ primary interior run-stuffer, so the team’s 24th-ranked ground defense could get even worse. That presents a problem in this contest, as Bill Parcells loves to pound the ball with Julius Jones and Marion Barber III. The Saints will be forced to bring an extra defender in the box, permitting Tony Romo to continuously torch them. No one in New Orleans’ secondary can stay with Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten.

    New Orleans will be able to keep up with Dallas initially, but I don’t see it scoring every single time it has the ball. The Cowboys will do a decent job on Deuce McAllister, but they have yet to see a weapon like Reggie Bush. Drew Brees will also have success; we all witnessed what Eli Manning did to Dallas’ stop unit last week – unless, of course you were subjected to a boring Buccaneers-Steelers tilt. And in that case, I have a bag full of dog feces waiting for you. Have fun with FOX.

    At first, this line seemed high. The books apparently want the public to take New Orleans for some reason. I would not recommend doing so.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Big game in Dallas, but neither squad needs a victory at this juncture.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    It's never a good idea to bet on America's Team when it plays on National TV; there's way too much action going that way.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 60% (57,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 58-81 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; COWBOYS kicked a GW FG with 1 second left.
    • Saints are 33-21 ATS on the road since 2000.
    • Saints are 21-14 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
    • Cowboys are 19-9 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
    • Tony Romo is 5-1 as a starter (4-1 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Cowboys -6½.
    • Opening Total: 46½.
    • Weather: Showers, 53 degrees. Mild wind: 13 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Saints Receivers, Cowboys Offense.
    • Sit Em: Deuce McAllister.

    Prediction: Cowboys 30, Saints 20. (Cowboys -7½).
    Incorrect: Saints 42, Cowboys 17.




    Bears (10-2) at Rams (5-7). Line: Bears by 6½. Over-Under: 41½.
    Monday, 8:30 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Bears -5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Bears -6.

    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Bears: OUT: DT Tommie Harris, DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Mike Brown (IR). QUESTIONABLE: CB Nathan Vasher. Rams: OUT: OT Orlando Pace (IR), G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Victor Adeyanju, CB Tye Hill, S O.J. Atogwe.

    Here’s my weekly preview of a potential conversation on Monday Night Football: Tirico: Rex Grossman, Brian Griese! Rex Grossman Brian Griese. Rex Grossman, Brian Griese Rex Grossman Brian Griese Rex Grossman, Brian Griese? Theismann: Brian Griese Rex Grossman Brian Griese Rex Grossman, Brian Griese Rex Grossman. Brian Griese… Rex Grossman, Brian Griese? Kornheiser: Rex Grossman, Brian Griese Rex Grossman Brian Greise! Rex Grossman, Brian Griese Rex Grossman Brian Griese! Suzy Kolber: Rex Grossman Brian Griese Rex Grossman Brian Griese Rex Grossman! Brian Griese Rex Grossman Brian Griese. Rex Grossman Brian Griese Rex Grossman. Brian Griese Rex Grossman?

    If Grossman will ever snap out of his slump, it’ll be against the Rams, who just surrendered 34 points to pitiful Arizona. Edgerrin James was actually able to eclipse 100 yards last week, so who knows how many yards Thomas Jones will be able to accumulate. Five hundred? A thousand? With Jones gaining a first down every single time he touches the ball, Grossman will have all the time in the world to locate Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian downfield.

    Brian Urlacher, Tommie Harris, Mark Anderson, Adewale Ogunleye, Lance Briggs and the rest of the Bears defense versus a Rams offensive line without Orlando Pace. Seems a bit unfair, doesn’t it? I have no idea how St. Louis is going to score a single point.

    That said, I could see this contest going down like the Bears-Cardinals Monday night matchup earlier this season. It’s pretty formulaic; you have a home underdog on one side, and a heavy public favorite on the other. Plus, it also helps that Chicago isn’t really playing for anything.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Bears became the first team to clinch their division last week. Why would they care about beating the Rams?

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    The thought of the common bettor: "There's no way I'm taking the Rams! They just lost to the Cardinals at home!" Yeah, expect everyone to be on Chicago.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 65% (70,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
    • MNF Home Dogs: Monday Night Football home underdogs are 4-2 ATS this year.
    • MNF Home Advantage: Monday Night Football home teams are 9-5 ATS this year.
    • Opening Line: Bears -6.
    • Opening Total: 42.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Thomas Jones, Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian, Bears Defense, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce.
    • Sit Em: Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson.

    Prediction: Bears 20, Rams 19. (Rams +6½).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Bears 42, Rams 27.


    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


    Cowboys: 9-2
    Eagles: 7-5
    Giants: 8-3
    Redskins: 7-4

    Bears: 7-5
    Lions: 9-3
    Packers: 9-2
    Vikings: 6-6

    Buccaneers: 5-6
    Falcons: 6-6
    Panthers: 6-4
    Saints: 5-7

    49ers: 8-4
    Cardinals: 3-9
    Rams: 7-4
    Seahawks: 7-5

    Bills: 7-5
    Dolphins: 7-4
    Jets: 7-5
    Patriots: 7-4

    Bengals: 5-6
    Browns: 6-4
    Ravens: 5-7
    Steelers: 6-6

    Colts: 5-6
    Jaguars: 7-4
    Texans: 10-2
    Titans: 7-4

    Broncos: 2-9
    Chargers: 7-5
    Chiefs: 6-6
    Raiders: 5-6

    Divisional Games: 36-29
    Game Edge: 26-41
    Psychological Edge: 19-14
    Vegas Edge: 8-4
    Trend Edge: 16-20
    Double Edge: 13-12
    Triple Edge: 0-2
    Quadruple Edge: 0-0


    SUB MENU

    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 1-3 (-$790)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 0-1-1 (-$440)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 6, 2014): 10-4-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 6, 2014): -$220

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 49-53-5, 48.0% (-$1,265)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 20-18, 52.6% (+$70)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 2-5-1, 28.6% (-$1,290)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 50-39-1, 56.2% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$690

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,063-1,897-116, 52.1% (+$11,150)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 664-601-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 278-239-11 (53.8%)
    Career Over-Under: 1591-1576-47 (50.2%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 2-4
    Bears: 2-4
    Bucs: 4-2
    49ers: 3-2
    Eagles: 3-3
    Lions: 2-4
    Falcons: 2-4
    Cardinals: 2-3
    Giants: 2-4
    Packers: 3-2
    Panthers: 1-5
    Rams: 3-2
    Redskins: 3-3
    Vikings: 4-2
    Saints: 2-3
    Seahawks: 3-2
    Bills: 2-4
    Bengals: 1-4
    Colts: 3-3
    Broncos: 4-1
    Dolphins: 4-0
    Browns: 2-1
    Jaguars: 2-4
    Chargers: 1-5
    Jets: 3-3
    Ravens: 1-4
    Texans: 4-2
    Chiefs: 3-1
    Patriots: 3-3
    Steelers: 2-4
    Titans: 3-2
    Raiders: 3-2
    Divisional: 10-12 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 6-5 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 5-10 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 12-12 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 11-6 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 3-3 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
    Week 1 NFL Picks
    Week 2 NFL Picks
    Week 3 NFL Picks
    Week 4 NFL Picks
    Week 5 NFL Picks
    Week 6 NFL Picks
    Week 7 NFL Picks
    Week 8 NFL Picks
    Week 9 NFL Picks
    Week 10 NFL Picks
    Week 11 NFL Picks
    Week 12 NFL Picks
    Week 13 NFL Picks
    Week 14 NFL Picks
    Week 15 NFL Picks
    Week 16 NFL Picks
    Week 17 NFL Picks
    Week 18 NFL Picks
    Week 19 NFL Picks
    Week 20 NFL Picks
    Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
    Week 1 NFL Picks
    Week 2 NFL Picks
    Week 3 NFL Picks
    Week 4 NFL Picks
    Week 5 NFL Picks
    Week 6 NFL Picks
    Week 7 NFL Picks
    Week 8 NFL Picks
    Week 9 NFL Picks
    Week 10 NFL Picks
    Week 11 NFL Picks
    Week 12 NFL Picks
    Week 13 NFL Picks
    Week 14 NFL Picks
    Week 15 NFL Picks
    Week 16 NFL Picks
    Week 17 NFL Picks
    Week 18 NFL Picks
    Week 19 NFL Picks
    Week 20 NFL Picks
    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2014 Season:
    Week 1 NFL Picks
    Week 2 NFL Picks
    Week 3 NFL Picks
    Week 4 NFL Picks
    Week 5 NFL Picks
    Week 6 NFL Picks
    Week 7 NFL Picks
    Week 8 NFL Picks
    Week 9 NFL Picks
    Week 10 NFL Picks
    Week 11 NFL Picks
    Week 12 NFL Picks
    Week 13 NFL Picks
    Week 14 NFL Picks
    Week 15 NFL Picks
    Week 16 NFL Picks
    Week 17 NFL Picks



    © 1999-2014 Walter Cherepinsky : all rights reserved
    Privacy Policy
    2 5 9
    Google


























  • WalterFootball.com Now on Twitter:

    WalterFootball.com Twitter

    Subscribe to the WalterFootball.com RSS Feed:

    Walterfootball.com RSS Feed






















































    Support Walt's Other Site:

    Sales Tips and Sales Advice - Tons of sales tips, sales techniques and sales advice, including a Sales Mock Draft: The 32 Worst Things You Can Do in Sales.