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NFL Picks Against the Spread
Week 5, 2008



NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Vegas betting action updated Oct. 6, 3:40 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 5 - Early Games
Chiefs at Panthers, Titans at Ravens, Bears at Lions, Falcons at Packers, Colts at Texans, Chargers at Dolphins, Seahawks at Giants, Redskins at Eagles

NFL Picks Week 5 - Late Games
Buccaneers at Broncos, Bills at Cardinals, Bengals at Cowboys, Patriots at 49ers, Steelers at Jaguars, Vikings at Saints

BYE: Browns, Jets, Raiders, Rams


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I'll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it'll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It'll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. New England Patriots - Why are people surprised that the Dolphins beat the Patriots? I was shocked by the score, but I thought a Miami win was pretty predictable. New England has one of the worst defenses in the league, and it looks like Randy Moss has quit on the team. Six or seven victories sounds about right.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars - Through four exhibition games and three regular-season contests, David Garrard STILL couldn't put together a quality performance - until he played the sorry Texans defense. Houston loaded eight men in the box, so I'm curious to see how Garrard performs against a quality stop unit. Oh, and Jacksonville's defense isn't that good either. They could not stop Houston.

3. New York Jets - So, the Jets put up 56 points and Brett Favre threw six touchdowns. Whoop dee doo. New York couldn't stop Arizona's offense and was helped by seven careless Cardinal turnovers and a blocked field goal. The Jets still lost to Matt Cassel, got slaughtered in San Diego and barely beat the Dolphins.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Let's take a look at Tampa Bay's three victories: Beating Atlanta 24-9 wasn't too impressive. The Falcons hung around until the fourth quarter despite the fact that Matt Ryan began the game 0-of-9 with two picks. The following week, the Buccaneers needed a comeback and a Charles "Peanut" Tillman penalty to beat the mediocre Bears. Last Sunday, Tampa Bay was helped by two fluke turnovers and an Aaron Rodgers injury.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Houston Texans - The Texans aren't terrible. Despite the 31-12 final score, Houston was pretty competitive against now 4-0 Tennessee. They botched a bunch of red-zone possessions because of dumb coaching errors and a few Andre Johnson drops. A pick-six iced the game.

2. Minnesota Vikings - Still underrated in my mind. Remember, the Vikings played the Packers and Colts to within one score. Against the Titans, Minnesota was victimized by awful (and perhaps larcenous) officiating and an Adrian Peterson fumble deep in its own territory. Also, remember that Bryant McKinnie returns this week.

3. Kansas City Chiefs - You may laugh at the Chiefs being here, but think about it. In the two games that Tyler Thigpen didn't play, Kansas City was very competitive with New England and Denver. As long as Thigpen stays away from the field, the Chiefs have a shot.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are not an 0-4 team. I don't know what happened to them in the first week of the season, but they were competitive with the Titans the following Sunday. In Week 3, they nearly beat the Giants as huge underdogs. They didn't really have much of a chance with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Still, Cincinnati's defense is a bit underrated. They're ranked fifth against the pass and 16th versus the run.















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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 3-3 (-$170)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 0-2 (-$880)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 2, 2014): 8-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 2, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 23-24-1, 48.9% (-$1,060)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 12-10, 54.5% (+$280)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-2, %0 (-$880)
2014 Season Over-Under: 18-13-1, 58.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$270

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,037-1,868-112, 52.2% (+$11,365)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 656-593-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-236-10 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1559-1550-47 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 1-1
Bears: 0-2
Bucs: 1-1
49ers: 1-1
Eagles: 0-2
Lions: 1-1
Falcons: 0-2
Cardinals: 1-1
Giants: 2-0
Packers: 1-1
Panthers: 0-2
Rams: 1-1
Redskins: 1-1
Vikings: 1-1
Saints: 1-1
Seahawks: 1-1
Bills: 1-1
Bengals: 0-2
Colts: 0-2
Broncos: 1-1
Dolphins: 2-0
Browns: 2-0
Jaguars: 0-2
Chargers: 0-2
Jets: 1-1
Ravens: 0-2
Texans: 2-0
Chiefs: 2-0
Patriots: 2-0
Steelers: 1-1
Titans: 1-1
Raiders: 2-0
Divisional: 4-4 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 0-2 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 3-2 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 6-2 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 2-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 2-1 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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2014 Season:
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