NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2013



NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 8-4 (+$550)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)
Line: Panthers by 3.5.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I never imagined that Mike Tomlin would ever be 0-3 in the preseason. That goes to show you how bad Landry Jones is. If it weren't for Jones, I'd make this a 4-unit Pick of the Month, but I can't lay that much money with him because he's the worst quarterback in the NFL. Still, I expect Tomlin to win, and I love getting more than a field goal with him.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 19-9 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 6-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 5-6 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 16, Panthers 13
    Steelers +3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220








    Washington Redskins (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
    Line: Redskins by 2.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Shanahan lives for these preseason games. He has a combined 52-23 record with the Redskins and Broncos, and he's 12-3 in Week 4. Greg Schiano doesn't really seem to care. He's coming off a win of his own against the Dolphins (who also don't put much stock into the preseason). Last year, Shanahan beat Schiano in a Week 4 exhibition matchup, 30-3. Given that we're only laying two points, I'm confident enough in the Redskins (especially Pat White) to make them my August NFL Pick of the Month.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Mike Shanahan is 52-23 in preseason games.
  • Mike Shanahan is 12-3 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Greg Schiano is 3-4 in preseason games.
  • Greg Schiano is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Buccaneers 10
    Redskins -2 (4 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$400







    New York Giants (1-2) at New England Patriots (2-1)
    Line: Patriots by 1.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Tom Coughlin usually loses the team's dress rehearsal (2-8 in Week 3), but he tends to have the Giants exit the preseason on a winning note, owning a 6-3 record in Week 4. Bill Belichick, meanwhile, doesn't seem to care one way or another (6-7 in Week 4).


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Tom Coughlin is 19-20 in preseason games.
  • Tom Coughlin is 6-3 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Bill Belichick is 31-26 in preseason games (7-2 since 2011).
  • Bill Belichick is 6-7 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Patriots 17
    Giants +1 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110







    Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-0)
    Line: Seahawks by 6.5.

    Thursday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm pretty mad that the Jaguars, Falcons, Saints and Dolphins are all playing each other this week. I planned to make high-unit bets against each of them, but that's just not possible.

    At any rate, I like the Seahawks a bit despite the heavy price tag. Pete Carroll is 7-0 in the preseason the past two years. His team depth is far superior to Oakland's. Dennis Allen is just 2-5 in exhibition contests, so he's a nice fade.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Dennis Allen is 2-5 in preseason games.
  • Dennis Allen is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Pete Carroll is 10-5 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Raiders 9
    Seahawks -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








    NFL Picks - Nov. 23


    2018 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 23


    2019 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 20


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    2018 NBA Mock Draft - Aug. 23


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 1-4 (-$885)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 0-1 (-$600)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2017): 8-6 (-$65)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2017): -$220

    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-1, 75.0% (+$1,120)

    2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 77-96-5, 44.5% (-$4,900)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-29-1, 39.6% (-$3,355)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 10-12-1, 45.5% (-$1,580)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 81-78-1, 50.3% (+$280)
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$590

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
    2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$1,055)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,516-2,339-148, 51.8% (+$4,015)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 804-732-39 (52.3%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 339-304-19 (52.7%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,026-1,981-55 (50.4%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 38-23 (62.3%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-5 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 8-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-6 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-3 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-7 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-3 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-6 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 4-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-6 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-7 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-6 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-5 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-8 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-8 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-4 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-5 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-6 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-7 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-6 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-5 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-8 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-8 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 16-21 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-13 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 27-25 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-11 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-20 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-10 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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