Giants (2-2) at Falcons (3-1). Line: Falcons by 3. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Falcons -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Falcons -3.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Giants: DOUBTFUL: WR Sinorice Moss, LB Carlos Emmons. Falcons: OUT: WR Brian Finneran (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Wayne Gandy, G Kynan Forney, DE John Abraham, LB Edgerton Hartwell, CB Allen Rossum.

I love how everyone counted out the Giants because of something stupid Jeremy Shockey said in the locker room after a blowout loss. It seems like the media overreacts to everything.

If that’s the case, get ready for New York to become a Super Bowl contender if it wins this game. The team certainly has the run defense to keep Atlanta’s renowned rushing attack in check; the Giants are ranked first in that department. They will put the clamps on Warrick Dunn, and even Michael Vick will have problems scrambling. Everyone knows Vick loves to elude defenders by running to his left, which won’t work Sunday; Osi Umenyiora will make sure he doesn’t go anywhere. If the Giants shut down Atlanta’s ground attack, the Falcons will have trouble scoring, given Vick’s inability to throw the ball consistently.

Much like the Giants’ stop unit, Atlanta puts the clamps on the run pretty well – the team is ranked fourth – but struggles a bit versus aerial attacks. The main difference, however, between these two squads is that New York can actually move the chains through the air. There aren’t many teams who have the personnel to cover Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer and Tiki Barber.

The Giants have the edge in talent, and need a victory much more than the Falcons do.


The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

The Giants are out of the danger zone with their win over the Redskins, but they still need a victory to keep up with the 4-1 Eagles. Atlanta, playing the first of two consecutive home contests, is fine at 3-1.

The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Falcons -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Alge Crumpler, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey.
  • Sit Em: Warrick Dunn, Falcons Defense.

Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 14. (Giants +3).
Correct: Giants 27, Falcons 14.




Panthers (3-2) at Ravens (4-1). Line: Ravens by 3. Over-Under: 33½.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Ravens -3½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Ravens -3.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: RB DeAngelo Williams, OT Travelle Wharton (IR), LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: C Justin Hartwig, S Shaun Williams. Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR). QUESTIONABLE: TE Todd Heap*, DE Terrell Suggs, DT Haloti Ngata.

I’d like to personally thank Steve McNair for his three untimely interceptions on Monday, each of which was very instrumental in Denver’s win and cover. You were great, Steve. No one could have done it any better. Well, except for maybe Daunte Culpepper.

The Ravens are 4-1, but they’re in trouble. That’s because McNair is not the quarterback they expected him to be when they traded for him. McNair has more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5), a pedestrian completion percentage (56.4) and a hideous passer rating (67.0). And McNair’s struggles are likely to continue, given that Carolina owns one of the greatest mismatches this week has to offer. Julius Peppers, who will be lining up against beleaguered right tackle Tony Pashos, should be able to collect at least two sacks and a forced fumble. But those numbers could actually be four and two by the end of this contest. Baltimore will not be able to grant McNair run support; over-the-hill Jamal Lewis will be stymied by Carolina’s vaunted front seven.

The Panthers won’t run away with this game, but they should have more success scoring that their counterpart. No one can cover Steve Smith – not even the great Chris McAlister – so Jake Delhomme could occasionally find the All-Pro wide out downfield. Keyshawn Johnson will also chip in with a few receptions.

Carolina is simply the better team right now, and it needs a win slightly more than the Ravens do.


The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
Unlike Baltimore, Carolina is not atop its division. Thus, it needs this victory more.

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Panthers are 20-10 ATS as an underdog the previous 30 instances.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.
  • Opening Total: 33.
  • Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Steve Smith, Panthers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Steve McNair, Jamal Lewis, DeShaun Foster.

Prediction: Panthers 13, Ravens 6. (Panthers +3).
Correct: Panthers 23, Ravens 21.




Texans (1-3) at Cowboys (2-2). Line: Cowboys by 12½. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Cowboys -10½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Cowboys -10.

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins, KR Jerome Mathis (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: DE Antwan Peek. Cowboys: OUT: S Marcus Coleman (SUSP).

The Saints and the Eagles are two teams that have enjoyed victories in very emotional home games this year. Neither the Philadelphia crowd nor Donovan McNabb was going to let the team lose. As a result, the Falcons and Cowboys were at the receiving end of emotional-whirlpool losses. Atlanta responded the following week by pounding Arizona. Can Dallas do the same?

The Cowboys certainly have the personnel to squash Houston. The Texans defense, ranked 28th against the run, doesn’t have anyone with more than 1½ sacks. Thus, Drew Bledsoe will have all the time in the world to find Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten downfield. Julius Jones and Marion Barber III will combine for about 200 rushing yards, as the Texans have maintained one of the worst defenses in the NFL since their franchise came into existence.

One thing positive for Houston is that David Carr is playing really well. Carr has seven touchdowns, only two interceptions, a completion percentage of 73.0 and a passer rating of 108.9. Unfortunately, he has already been sacked 15 times. The Texans have no running game, so linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis will be able to concentrate on pinning Carr to the ground.

Poor Texans – they’re coming off their first victory of the season, but have to stop a Cowboys team in what seems to be a must-win situation. Dallas cannot afford to fall three games behind Philadelphia.


The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
The Cowboys, trapped in an emotional whirlpool at the Linc, need to rebound from a very important loss to the Eagles. Houston has no playoff aspirations.

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Cowboys are 12-2 ATS after a loss as an underdog under Bill Parcells.
  • Cowboys are 15-7 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
  • Cowboys are 10-1 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -12.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 78 degrees. Mild wind: 16 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: David Carr, Drew Bledsoe, Julius Jones, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, Cowboys Defense.
  • Sit Em: Vernand Morency, Ron Dayne, Texans Defense.

Prediction: Cowboys 37, Texans 17. (Cowboys -12½).
Double Money Pick.
Survivor Pick (5-0).
Correct: Cowboys 34, Texans 6.




Bills (2-3) at Lions (0-5). Line: Bills by 1. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bills -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Pick.

The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Bills: OUT: DT John McCargo, S Troy Vincent (CUT). DOUBTFUL: S Matt Bowen. QUESTIONABLE: G Chris Villarrial, LB Takeo Spikes, CB Nate Clements. Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DT Shaun Cody, LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), S Kenoy Kennedy, S Idrees Bashir. PROBABLE: RB Kevin Jones*, WR Roy Williams*.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the Lions finally won a game with Roy Williams out of the lineup? I mean – actually won a game. I know Williams thinks his team is 5-0, but I don’t think anyone of us live on the same planet as he does.

The key for the Lions is being able to stop Willis McGahee and scoring some early points, which would force J.P. Losman to throw early and often. Detroit is ranked ninth against the run, so it could have some success against McGahee. Losman is coming off a three-interception performance in Chicago, meaning his confidence level could be at an all-time low if he makes a few mistakes in the first half. However, I’m not sure if the Lions can force him into too many errors; they’ve accumulated only six sacks and one interception this year.

If both Williams and Kevin Jones are out, the Lions could have severe problems moving the chains; the Bills have registered 13 sacks this campaign, while Detroit has yielded 19. With a hobbled Jones in the backfield, Mike Martz will call even more pass plays than usual. Considering Jon Kitna may not have Williams at his disposal, that could be a disaster in the making.

Buffalo is the better team, and under normal circumstances, would win this contest. However, if the Lions don’t claim this one, they’re not winning for a while. Their next three weeks look like: at Jets, bye and home versus Atlanta. Detroit really needs this.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge here; Buffalo needs to improve to 3-3, while Detroit is seeking its first win of the season.

The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that had the line change in their favor by three or more points are 5-10 ATS since 2005.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 67-47 ATS on the road following a road loss (Dick Jauron 3-5).
  • Zero Trend: 0-5 teams are 3-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Lions are 5-13 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Lions -2.
  • Opening Total: 38½.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Lee Evans, Mike Furrey, Az Hakim.
  • Sit Em:

Prediction: Lions 20, Bills 17. (Lions +1).
Correct: Lions 20, Bills 17.




Eagles (4-1) at Saints (4-1). Line: Eagles by 3½. Over-Under: 46½.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
Walter's Game of the Week

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Eagles -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Eagles -3.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: Eagles: OUT: DE Jevon Kearse (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Donte' Stallworth*, CB Rod Hood. PROBABLE: RB Brian Westbrook*. Saints: OUT: FB Mike Karney, G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), S Bryan Scott, P Mitch Berger (IR).

In case you’re not from Philadelphia, and you’re not aware what Sunday’s game against the Cowboys meant to the people of the city, everyone is walking around smiling, and discussing how great the 38-24 victory was. It seems as though the Eagles are now playing with house money, and they can afford to lose this contest without any remorse.

On the other hand, this means the world to the Saints. Not only are they playing in front of their home crowd again, they can establish themselves as a legitimate contender with a victory over one of the NFL’s best teams. Thus, I expect them to come out with more intensity, and putting pressure on a potentially lackadaisical Donovan McNabb. New Orleans has registered 15 sacks this year, so it’s not like that wasn’t a possibility to begin with. Philadelphia can move the chains by running the ball – the Saints are 26th in that department – but history has shown that Andy Reid shies away from his ground attack at inopportune moments.

Meanwhile, the Saints should be able to move the chains if they can protect Drew Brees from Philadelphia’s monstrous defensive line, which produced seven sacks by itself against Dallas. New Orleans’ offensive front has yielded only six this campaign, so the winner of that battle will most likely win the game. Of course, it’ll help the Saints that the Eagles lack a solid outside linebacker to keep tabs on Reggie Bush.

There is no doubt in my mind that Philadelphia is the better team in this matchup. However, this contest means so much more to the Saints and the entire city of New Orleans. It’ll be very tight.


The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
Huge Let-Down Alert for the Eagles. Following a very emotional victory against Dallas, Philadelphia figures to be flat at New Orleans. The Saints, on the other hand, can establish themselves as a Super Bowl contender by defeating one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Eagles are 36-19 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, L.J. Smith, Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Joe Horn.
  • Sit Em: Deuce McAllister.

Prediction: Eagles 19, Saints 17. (Saints +3½).
Money Pick.
Correct: Saints 27, Eagles 24.




Seahawks (3-1) at Rams (4-1). Line: Seahawks by 3½. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Seahawks -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Seahawks -3.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: RB Shaun Alexander*, TE Jerramy Stevens, G Pork Chop Womack, DT Marcus Tubbs, S Mike Green (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Bobby Engram*. Rams: OUT: G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum* (IR). QUESTIONABLE: CB Travis Fisher, CB Fakhir Brown.

This is a huge statement game for the Rams, who used to be kings of the NFC West. That title now belongs to Seattle, but the host can take control of the division by beating its new archrival and improving to 5-1 with a victory at the Tax Payer Dome.

Shaun Alexander figures to be out again, but who knows how much that means? Prior to his injury, Alexander was averaging only 2.9 yards per carry. Maurice Morris is actually scampering to a superior clip of 3.1. The problem resides at the vacancy at left guard, where Steve Hutchinson no longer pushes people around. The Rams are 27th against the run, so they’re just what the doctor ordered, right? Maybe not – Alexander managed 89 yards on 26 carries against the Cardinals, who are 21st in that department. Seattle will have to become one-dimensional on offense, which may not be the worst thing in the world; St. Louis cannot stop the pass.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Seahawks are still pretty stout versus opposing ground attacks. Steven Jackson, who is tied for the league lead in rushing yards, may have trouble finding running lanes on Sunday afternoon. However, Rex Grossman threw all over Seattle’s defense, so Marc Bulger may have some luck.

According to sportsbook.com, 94 percent of all bettors are on the Seahawks. Ninety-four percent! That alone would put me on St. Louis.


The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
Big statement game for the Rams. They can take out the defending NFC West champs and establish themselves as the supreme entity in that division. However, the Seahawks lost their previous game by double digits.

The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • History: Seahawks have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Bye Bye: Mike Holmgren is 1-7 ATS off a bye with the Seahawks.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -3½.
  • Opening Total: 44½.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Darrell Jackson, Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce.
  • Sit Em: Shaun Alexander, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Rams 34, Seahawks 31. (Rams +3½).
Correct: Seahawks 30, Rams 28.




Bengals (3-1) at Buccaneers (0-4). Line: Bengals by 5. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bengals -6½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Bengals -5½.

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), C Rich Braham, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR), QUESTIONABLE: LB Rashad Jeanty, S Dexter Jackson. Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms. QUESTIONABLE: CB Brian Kelly, CB Juran Bolden.

This may sound weird to say, considering the Buccaneers are 0-4, but their season isn’t over. They lost to the Saints, but looked very impressive in doing so. In fact, if it wasn’t for Reggie Bush’s punt return for a touchdown, Tampa Bay would be 1-3 right now.

The most shocking element of Tampa Bay’s 24-21 loss at New Orleans was the play of Bruce Gradkowski. The rookie signal caller from Toledo was making his first start, but looking at the poise he showed in the pocket, you wouldn’t have known that. His stats weren’t bad either; he was 20-of-31 for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Cadillac Williams also showed signs of life, garnering 111 yards on 20 carries. Cadillac will find running lanes against Cincinnati’s ground defense, which is ranked 23rd in the NFL. Gradkowski will parlay Cadillac’s huge gains into play-action passes to Joey Galloway.

Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t what it used to be – it surrendered 123 rushing yards to Deuce McAllister last week – so the Bengals should be able to establish Rudi Johnson early and often. However, one snafu regarding Cincinnati’s offense is the fact that the line has yielded 15 sacks in four contests. Simeon Rice should be able to record a few, with the help of a secondary that is still one of the better units in the NFL.

Check out whom the Bengals play after this “easy” game against a winless team: Carolina, Atlanta, Baltimore, San Diego and New Orleans. Don’t expect maximum effort from the Bengals.

Note: I’ve decided to make Pittsburgh my Pick of the Month. I still like the Buccaneers +5½ a lot, however.


The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay will be looking for its first win. Cincinnati has Carolina, Atlanta, Baltimore, San Diego and New Orleans after this contest, so this is a Breather Alert.

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Buccaneers are 10-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.
  • Zero Trend: 0-4 teams are 11-5 since 2000 (6-4 vs. non-losing opponents).
  • Opening Line: Bengals -6.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Sunny, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, Bruce Gradkowski, Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Buccaneers 34, Bengals 20. (Buccaneers +5).
Double Money Pick.
Correct: Buccaneers 14, Bengals 13.




Titans (0-5) at Redskins (2-3). Line: Redskins by 10. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Redskins -13.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Redskins -11.

The Game. Edge: Redskins.
Injuries: Titans: OUT: WR David Givens, TE Erron Kinney, G Zach Piller, DE Antwan Odom, DT Albert Haynesworth (SUSP), DT Rien Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB LenDale White, WR Drew Bennett, G Benji Olson, DE Travis LaBoy, K Rob Bironas. QUESTIONABLE: DT Joe Salave'a, CB Shawn Springs.

A few years ago on Jim Rome is Burning, Rome interviewed a former Italian mobster, who was able to shed some light on football gambling. This guy revealed that a handful of college football games and a few NFL contests are fixed every year. I didn’t believe him until I watched the Titans “battle” the Colts down to the wire.

If any game I’ve ever seen were fixed, it was that one. There was no way Tennessee, a team that barely has any NFL-caliber talent, should have been able to compete with Indianapolis. And wasn’t it kind of obvious that Peyton Manning was able to turn it on just in time to win the game by the slimmest of margins?

Anyway, the Titans had no business competing with the Colts, and they definitely don’t have the personnel to give Washington a fight. Tennessee will not be able to run against the Redskins, who are yielding just 3.7 yards per carry. This means Vince Young and his gaudy stats – one touchdown, six interceptions, 46.7 completion percentage, 42.3 quarterback rating – will have to throw the ball to beat Washington. That’s not happening.

Meanwhile, the Redskins will establish Clinton Portis against the NFL’s 24th-ranked run defense. Mark Brunell, in turn, will be able to utilize play-action, and connect with Santana Moss and Chris Cooley downfield. Tennessee just doesn’t have the talent to defend all of Washington’s weapons.

Besides the fact that the Redskins are the much better team, they need to win this game to stay alive in a very competitive NFC East.


The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
Washington is in last place and needs to keep up with the other teams in the NFC East. The Titans will be seeking their first win of the year, but they probably know that they have no realistic shot at this game.

The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Hello, Bye: Underdogs of 6½ or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 67-47 ATS on the road following a road loss (Jeff Fisher 5-4).
  • Weak Arm: Vince Young is 1-0 ATS on the road.
  • Zero Trend: 0-5 teams are 3-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -9½.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Redskins Defense.
  • Sit Em: Vince Young, Travis Henry, LenDale White, Chris Brown, Titans Defense, The Mob.

Prediction: Redskins 41, Titans 10. (Redskins -10).
Double Money Pick.
Incorrect: Titans 25, Redskins 22.




Dolphins (1-4) at Jets (2-3). Line: Jets by 2½. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Jets -7½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Jets -6½.

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), CB Will Poole (IR). DOUBTFUL: QB Daunte Culpepper, WR Marty Booker. QUESTIONABLE: LB Derrick Pope, CB Travis Daniels. Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: WR Tim Dwight, G Pete Kendall, CB David Barrett.

This is an obvious trap if I ever saw one. Why are the Jets only favored by 2½? The line should be six at the very least. Take extreme caution if you plan on playing the host.

But how can the Jets possibly lose, you ask? I’m wondering the same thing. After all, Miami’s savior is Joey Harrington of all people. Harrington looked great compared to Daunte Culpepper, even though the former Detroit signal caller threw two interceptions at New England. And Harrington’s presence apparently didn’t affect Miami’s non-existent running game; Ronnie Brown rushed for 39 yards on 17 carries. However, Brown may have some success against the Jets’ 25th-ranked ground defense, permitting Harrington to have enough time to locate Chris Chambers, Wes Welker and Randy McMichael downfield.

Contrary to Miami’s possible success in the running game, the Jets could be stymied; the Dolphins are ranked third in that department. And it’s not like New York had a strong running back corps to begin with. Miami also figures to have a mismatch in the trenches; it has accumulated 13 sacks this year, while the Jets have surrendered 16.

I’m not sure where to go with this. It sounds like the Dolphins have the edges, but the Jets have owned this series in the past. New York is also coming off a humiliating, blowout loss, yet the line is telling me to take Miami. I’m confused. Let’s just move on to the next game, please.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge; both the Jets and Dolphins need a win.

The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • History: Jets have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.
  • Third Road Alert: Teams in their third consecutive road game are 7-13 ATS since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Jets -2½.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Sunny, 52 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers, Wes Welker, Randy McMichael, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
  • Sit Em: Jets Running Backs.

Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 20. (Jets -2½).
Money Pick.
Correct: Jets 20, Dolphins 17.




Chiefs (2-2) at Steelers (1-3). Line: Steelers by 6½. Over-Under: 36½.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Steelers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Steelers -3½.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Trent Green, OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Will Svitek, DT John Browning (IR). QUESTIONABLE: KR/PR Dante Hall. PROBABLE: RB Larry Johnson. Steelers: OUT: LB Joey Porter, LB James Harrison. QUESTIONABLE: CB Deshea Townsend.

On Sunday Night Football, Ben Roethlisberger said that his team’s back wasn’t against the wall, but they could see the wall. I haven’t heard what Roethlisberger had to say after his 23-13 loss to San Diego, but I can imagine that Pittsburgh’s back is definitely against the wall now. Frankly, the Steelers cannot afford to lose this game.

In dire, must-win situations, defenses usually step up and play on a higher level. Given that Pittsburgh’s stop unit is great to begin with, it’s almost frightening to envision what it’ll do to Kansas City’s offense. The Steelers will completely nullify Larry Johnson, who managed only 36 rushing yards against the lowly Cardinals. With Damon Huard ensnared in plenty of long-yardage situations, Dick LeBeau’s chaotic blitzing schemes will be able to produce tons of sacks against a line that has allowed 11 in four contests.

Roethlisberger has yet to throw a touchdown this season, but I have no doubt that will no longer be the case once this game is finished; after all, the Chiefs permitted Matt Leinart to throw for 253 yards and two touchdowns in his first start. And unlike the struggle at San Diego, Roethlisberger will not have pressure in his face on every single play; Kansas City’s defense only has nine sacks this year.

As I mentioned in my opening paragraph, it’s do or die for the Steelers. I don’t think the defending Super Bowl champs will wither away that easily.

Note: I'm going with the Steelers -7 as my Pick of the Month. Why, you ask? Their season is on the line. Just read what some of the players had to say to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

Alan Faneca: "It's definitely [time to] check yourself in the mirror. It's gut-check time. It's time to see what you're doing, what you're doing wrong and fix it, no matter what that takes -- if it takes coming in early, if it takes staying late. You know, 1-3, you got to do something to change that. ... We all need to either stay longer or work better the time we are working. It's not time to press but it is time to change what we're doing and work harder."

Hines Ward: "We have to find a way to turn this around -- someway, somehow -- or continue to go like that if we don't find a way to get all of our guys on the same page, because everybody has to play better."

I'll be shocked if Pittsburgh doesn't win this one by double digits.


The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
No way the Steelers lose this game. They cannot afford to start 1-4. The Chiefs are fine at 2-2.

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Weak Arm: Damon Huard is 1-1 ATS on the road.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 62-45 ATS on the road following a road win (Herman Edwards 3-2).
  • Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Steelers are 8-4 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Steelers are 19-4 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -7.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Steelers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Larry Johnson, Chiefs Defense.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Chiefs 6. (Steelers -6½).
Pick of the Month (1-1).
Correct: Steelers 45, Chiefs 7.




Chargers (3-1) at 49ers (2-3). Line: Chargers by 10. Over-Under: 42½.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Chargers -4½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Chargers -6.

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: S Bhawoh Jue. 49ers: OUT: TE Vernon Davis*, C Jeremy Newberry (IR). DOUBTFUL: G Larry Allen. QUESTIONABLE: OT Jonas Jennings.

I have to give Philip Rivers a lot of credit, and admit that I was wrong about him; I thought Rivers would emerge as a solid quarterback, but I didn’t think he would be able to do it so quickly. Rivers really grew up in the second half of Sunday night’s game against Pittsburgh.

Rivers should once again play extremely well, given that the 49ers are surrendering 224 passing yards per contest. But San Diego will go back to its bread and butter, which is running the ball with LaDainian Tomlinson. San Francisco is ranked 29th against the run, so look for at least 150 yards from the new L.T.

It’s hard to find any holes on San Diego’s defense. It is ranked fifth against ground attacks, and has accumulated 16 sacks and six interceptions in only four contests. I can’t imagine the 49ers doing anything on offense; Frank Gore, the league’s leading rusher, will frequently be stuffed in the backfield, which will force Alex Smith to ceaselessly throw on unfavorable downs.

As you can tell, the Chargers are clearly the better team. However, they may not be entirely focused for this game; they are coming off a big win against Pittsburgh, and may be looking forward to their first battle against Kansas City next week.

Friday Morning Note: It doesn't seem like the Chargers are taking this game seriously. In the article "Chargers ready to keep rolling, right over 49ers," which is available at signonsandiego.com, Shawne Merriman noted, "The 49ers showed they can come out and beat you if you play on their level. So we won't let that happen this week."

I've upgraded this to a Money Pick.


The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
The Chargers are coming off a tough win against Pittsburgh, and must play Kansas City next week. This 49ers contest looks like a Sandwich Situation.

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Hello, Bye: Underdogs of 6½ or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002. (Mike Nolan 0-1).
  • Double Digit Home Dog: Double digit home underdogs are 44-32 ATS since 1992.
  • Weak Arm: Philip Rivers is 1-1 ATS on the road.
  • Two Homes: Mike Nolan is 0-2 ATS at home after a home win.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -9.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chargers Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: 49ers Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Chargers 17, 49ers 13. (49ers +10).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Chargers 48, 49ers 19.




Raiders (0-4) at Broncos (3-1). Line: Broncos by 14. Over-Under: 36½.
Sunday, 8:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Broncos -16.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Broncos -16.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Raiders: OUT: QB Aaron Brooks*, CB Fabian Washington. DOUBTFUL: LB Grant Irons, CB Fabian Washington. QUESTIONABLE: G Kevin Boothe, DE Lance Johnstone.

Football bettors across the globe were thrilled when Art Shell and Aaron Brooks joined forces to create the worst NFL team of all time. The Raiders have yet to cover a point spread, and while Brooks missed the previous two games, Andrew Walter has been just as bad.

Brooks is questionable, but he might actually be worse than Walter. Denver’s prolific front seven will demolish Oakland’s offensive line, which has surrendered a whopping 20 sacks in just four contests. That obviously means Brooks and Walter won’t have enough time to locate Randy Moss downfield. LaMont Jordan will also have problems finding running lanes to scamper through.

The greatest attribute the Raiders have is their ability to sort of stop the run; they are 20th against opposing ground attacks. That’s pretty pathetic. Tatum Bell will easily eclipse the 150-yard barrier, permitting Jake Plummer to muster a few of his patented play-action bootlegs. If the Ravens, Browns and 49ers each had success moving the ball against Oakland’s defense, imagine what Denver will be able to accomplish.

Get ready, Broncos fans! The Oakland Raiders Comedy Tour is coming to your town. Be prepared for plenty of false starts, senseless penalties, interceptions, fumbles, holds, Art Shell blank stares, Moss blowups and Al Davis jumpsuits. It’s fun for the whole family.


The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
Mike Shanahan hates the Raiders, who will be searching for their first win. Denver doesn't really need this game, but the team won't be flat.

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Broncos have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 36-23 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
  • Post-Monday Night Magic: Mike Shanahan is 7-4 ATS after Monday Night Football.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 67-47 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Two Homes (Win): Mike Shanahan is 2-6 ATS at home after a home win.
  • Weak Arm: Andrew Walter is 0-1 ATS on the road.
  • Zero Trend: 0-4 teams are 11-5 since 2000 (6-4 vs. non-losing opponents).
  • Raiders are 3-12 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Broncos are 9-4 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Broncos are 14-8 ATS vs. AFC West opponents since 2001.
  • Broncos are 26-35 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Mike Shanahan.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -15½.
  • Opening Total: 37½.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Plummer, Tatum Bell, Rod Smith, Javon Walker, Broncos Defense.
  • Sit Em: Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Jeff George, LaMont Jordan, Raiders Defense.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Raiders 0. (Broncos -14).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Broncos 13, Raiders 3.




Bears (5-0) at Cardinals (1-4). Line: Bears by 12½. Over-Under: 40½.
Monday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bears -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Bears -7.

The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Chris Harris. QUESTIONABLE: WR Mark Bradley, DE Adewale Ogunleye. Cardinals: OUT: WR Larry Fitzgerald*. DOUBTFUL: G Milford Brown, DT Kendrick Clancy, LB James Darling.

I wonder if Matt Millen, Marv Levy, Al Davis and Floyd Reese were watching Matt Leinart play against the Chiefs last week. They all passed on Leinart, who proved he will at least be a very sound quarterback in this league, although the sky is the limit for him, just as long as he stays away from Paris Hilton. As for Millen and Reese? They should be fired – immediately.

That said, Leinart has never seen a defense as dominant as Chicago’s. Not too many quarterbacks have. And Leinart has seen an offensive line as bad as his just once. That was last week. The Bears’ defensive front will completely manhandle Arizona’s line, which will create tons of problems for Leinart. Kansas City generated four sacks last week, so Chicago should be able to double that statistic. Besides, the Cardinals will not have Larry Fitzgerald in the lineup, so the Bears will have only one Pro Bowl receiver to worry about.

Chicago’s running game was non-existent in the first month of the season, but it finally came around against Buffalo; Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson combined for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona is ranked 21st against opposing ground attacks, meaning Jones and Benson could repeat that performance. Rex Grossman consequently will be able to utilize play-action into a secondary that is yielding 237 passing yards per contest.

This is the first Monday Night Football game in Arizona for what seems like decades. That could have the Cardinals fired up, so I’m holding off on the Money Picks. The Bears should still be able to cover though.


The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
It's obvious that Arizona needs this more than Chicago, but the players know that they have no shot at the postseason. However, the Cardinals could be fired up about their first Monday Night Football home game in years.

The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Hello, Bye: Favorites of 6½ or more are 23-2 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Double Digit Home Dog: Double digit home underdogs are 44-32 ATS since 1992.
  • Cardinals are 9-7 ATS as a home underdog since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Bears -10½.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Bears Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Matt Leinart, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals Defense.

Prediction: Bears 27, Cardinals 10. (Bears -12½).
Incorrect: Bears 24, Cardinals 23.


My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 3-1
Eagles: 4-1
Giants: 2-2
Redskins: 4-1

Bears: 3-2
Lions: 4-1
Packers: 4-0
Vikings: 3-2

Buccaneers: 0-4
Falcons: 2-2
Panthers: 1-3
Saints: 2-3

49ers: 4-1
Cardinals: 2-3
Rams: 2-2
Seahawks: 2-2

Bills: 1-4
Dolphins: 2-2
Jets: 3-2
Patriots: 2-2

Bengals: 3-1
Browns: 1-2
Ravens: 2-3
Steelers: 2-2

Colts: 1-3
Jaguars: 1-3
Texans: 3-1
Titans: 3-2

Broncos: 1-3
Chargers: 2-2
Chiefs: 1-3
Raiders: 2-1

Divisional Games: 14-18
Trend Edge: 10-13
Game Edge: 13-16
Psychological Edge: 3-4
Double Edge: 5-8
Triple Edge: 0-1


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 2-2 (+$80)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 0-1 (-$440)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2014): 9-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2014): $0

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 63-68-6, 48.1% (-$615)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-20, 55.6% (+$850)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 3-7-1, 30.0% (-$1,770)
2014 Season Over-Under: 68-51-1, 57.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$690

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,077-1,912-116, 52.1% (+$11,800)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 669-603-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 279-241-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,609-1,588-47 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-5
Bears: 3-5
Bucs: 5-2
49ers: 3-3
Eagles: 4-3
Lions: 2-5
Falcons: 3-5
Cardinals: 3-4
Giants: 2-5
Packers: 5-2
Panthers: 2-6
Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 5-3
Vikings: 6-2
Saints: 3-3
Seahawks: 3-4
Bills: 3-5
Bengals: 2-6
Colts: 4-4
Broncos: 4-3
Dolphins: 5-1
Browns: 3-2
Jaguars: 3-5
Chargers: 2-6
Jets: 4-4
Ravens: 2-5
Texans: 5-3
Chiefs: 4-2
Patriots: 4-4
Steelers: 3-5
Titans: 4-3
Raiders: 3-4
Divisional: 13-18 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 7-9 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 7-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 18-16 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 13-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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