Patriots (16-2) vs. Eagles (15-3). Line: Patriots by 7. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, Feb. 6, 6:25 ET at Jacksonville
SUPER BOWL XXXIX

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 20 Games): Patriots by 7.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: PATRIOTS: OUT: TE Ben Watson, OT Adrian Klemm, OT Tom Ashworth, NT Dan Klecko, CB Ty Law, CB Tyrone Poole. EAGLES: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, FB Jon Ritchie, TE Chad Lewis, G Shawn Andrews, DE Ndukwe Kalu. QUESTIONABLE: WR Terrell Owens*.

The New England Patriots are destroying every team in their path. They restricted one of the best offenses of all time to three points in the divisional round of the playoffs, beating the Colts 20-3. They scored 41 points against the best defense in the NFL, defeating the Steelers 41-27 in the AFC Championship Game. Standing in their path to claim their third Lombardi Trophy in four years, and the reception of the term "dynasty" are the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that finally overcame adversity, winning their first NFC title game in four tries.

New England is favored by a touchdown for obvious reasons. The most prominent is their defense. Tons of credit must be given to Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, but players like Teddy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Willie McGinest, Troy Brown, Mike Vrabel and Eugene Wilson are the ones that are making the plays on the field. Belichick has a well-documented reputation for befuddling talented quarterbacks; Peyton Manning walked off the field, shaking his head in confusion and disgust after his sixth consecutive loss to the combination of Belichick and Tom Brady. Ben Roethlisbergerwas picked off three times in the AFC Championship game. The Patriots should have no trouble confusing Donovan McNabb. In fact, a perplexed McNabb completed 18 of 46 passes for 186 yards against New England in last year's meeting. McNabb also threw two interceptions and fumbled three times. The Patriots demolished the Eagles, 31-10.

Even if Terrell Owens plays, which is looking doubtful after his doctor did not clear him to play, it will not be enough to overcome the smarts and strength of New England's stop unit. The Patriots will take Brian Westbrook out of the game, causing tons of turnovers and creating havoc for McNabb. Philadelphia's offense will fall prey to one of the greatest-coached defenses in NFL history.

Philadelphia's defense did a phenomenal job putting the clamps on the Vikings and Falcons offenses. However, the Patriots are on a different level than Minnesota, Atlanta and even the Eagles. Brady is an invincible 8-0 in the playoffs and always makes big plays in important contests. The Eagles cannot key in on Brady because Corey Dillon is an exceptional rusher. Philadelphia may force New England to punt on occasion, but the Patriots will create long, drawn-out drives to keep McNabb and Westbrook off the field.

Whether it's a blowout, a fairly-close victory or an Adam Vinatieri game-winning field goal, the Patriots will win their third Super Bowl in four years. Philadelphia is a great team, but like Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, they will fall to an unstoppable machine.

Note: Pick is subject to change until Super Bowl Sunday, if there is a Barrett Robbins- or Eugene Robinson-type distraction.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Super Bowl History: AFC is 4-2 ATS vs. the NFC since 1997.
  • Tom Brady is 8-0 in the playoffs (5-3 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 56-14 as a starter (47-22 ATS).
  • Patriots are 14-4 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 3-9 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2002.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -6 (open) to Patriots -7.
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 48 to 47.
  • Weather: Showers, 65 degrees. 10 MPH Wind.

Prediction: Patriots by 17. (Patriots -7). Money Pick. Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 9-6
Eagles: 10-8
Giants: 8-8
Redskins: 9-7

Bears: 8-8
Lions: 7-9
Packers: 8-7
Vikings: 6-12

Buccaneers: 7-7
Falcons: 9-8
Panthers: 10-5
Saints: 10-6

49ers: 7-9
Cardinals: 10-6
Rams: 10-7
Seahawks: 9-8

Bills: 12-4
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 9-8
Patriots: 11-5

Bengals: 9-7
Browns: 11-5
Ravens: 9-7
Steelers: 6-12

Colts: 12-5
Jaguars: 9-7
Texans: 11-5
Titans: 6-10

Broncos: 9-5
Chargers: 9-6
Chiefs: 5-11
Raiders: 10-6

Divisional Games: 49-43
Trend Edge: 34-39
Game Edge: 45-43
Game & Trend Edge: 9-8


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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-9
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-6
49ers: 6-7
Eagles: 9-5
Lions: 5-8
Falcons: 6-8
Cardinals: 7-7
Giants: 4-10
Packers: 9-4
Panthers: 5-9
Rams: 6-8
Redskins: 8-6
Vikings: 11-3
Saints: 5-8
Seahawks: 7-7
Bills: 6-8
Bengals: 5-10
Colts: 6-7
Broncos: 7-7
Dolphins: 9-4
Browns: 7-5
Jaguars: 8-6
Chargers: 5-9
Jets: 7-7
Ravens: 6-8
Texans: 6-7
Chiefs: 8-5
Patriots: 7-7
Steelers: 7-7
Titans: 6-6
Raiders: 5-9
Divisional: 31-37 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-16 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 23-21 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 39-39 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 29-15 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 13-11 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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