Falcons (12-5) at Eagles (14-3). Line: Eagles by 6. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 3:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 19 Games): Eagles by 6.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: FALCONS: OUT: FB Justin Griffith, S Keion Carpenter. QUESTIONABLE: WR Brian Finneran, OT Todd Weiner, CB Kevin Mathis. EAGLES: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, FB Jon Ritchie, WR Terrell Owens, G Shawn Andrews, DE Derrick Burgess, DE Ndukwe Kalu, DT Hollis Thomas. QUESTIONABLE: OT Jon Runyan, LB Mark Simoneau.

Will the Eagles finally get over the NFC Championship hump? After losing three consecutive seasons in the championship game to St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Carolina, Philadelphia will attempt to finally hurdle past their championship game futility and make it to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1980. Standing in their way are Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons, who will try to become the third NFC South team in as many seasons to knock the Eagles out of the playoffs.

Philadelphia has not seen the likes of Vick this season. He is the most electrifying player in the NFL, capable of throwing the ball 70 yards down the field, and can easily dodge defenders for 80-yard gains on the ground. However, Vick's kryptonite is a stud right defensive end, such as Simeon Rice. Against the Buccaneers on Dec. 5, Vick was awful, completing 13 of 27 passes for 115 yards and two interceptions. He managed to run for 81 yards, but fumbled twice in an embarrassing 27-0 loss. The Eagles right end? Jerome McDougle. Uh oh. Philadelphia shut down Vick in the 2002 divisional round of the playoffs, but that was when Hugh Douglas was in his prime. The Eagles may have trouble stopping Vick, which will deter their focus on Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, who will benefit from Vick's dynamic ability to break a long run for a touchdown on any given play.

The Eagles haven't faced a defense like Atlanta's since their Dec. 12 match-up against the Washington Redskins. The Falcons front seven wreaks havoc on opposing quarterbacks, registering 48 sacks in the regular season. Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman, who had 13 and 11 sacks respectively, will erupt any rhythm that Donovan McNabb wishes to establish on Sunday. McNabb will be flushed out of the pocket and forced to run, which he does not like to do. Freddie Mitchell, Todd Pinkston and Greg Lewis all played well against the Vikings, but who doesn't play well against Minnesota and their woeful secondary? Atlanta's secondary, comprised of corners DeAngelo Hall and Jason Webster, and safeties Bryan Scott and Cory Hall, will actually jam the mediocre Eagles receivers at the line of scrimmage, limiting Philadelphia's aerial attack. Brian Westbrook will help move the chains, but for the third straight year, points will be hard to come by for the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Atlanta has the better running attack and defense in what should be a defensive struggle. Philadelphia will become the Buffalo Bills of the NFC. This will be their fourth loss in four years.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Andy Reid is 0-3 in NFC Championship games.
  • Eagles are 30-11 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 16-9 ATS at home since 2002.
  • Eagles are 6-3 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -4 (open) to Eagles -5 to Eagles -6.
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 40 to 39 to 37 to 34.
  • Weather: Snow, 34 degrees. 23 MPH Heavy Wind.

Prediction: Falcons by 1. (Falcons +6). Money Pick. Under.




Patriots (15-2) at Steelers (16-1). Line: Patriots by 3. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 6:30 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 19 Games): Patriots by 3.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: PATRIOTS: OUT: TE Ben Watson, OT Adrian Klemm, OT Tom Ashworth, NT Dan Klecko, CB Ty Law, CB Tyrone Poole. QUESTIONABLE: DE Richard Seymour*. STEELERS: OUT: G Kendall Simmons, NT Casey Hampton. QUESTIONABLE: LB Kendrell Bell*.

What a shock. The Patriots beat the Colts, a team they dominate, on Sunday. However, the real surprise of the divisional round was Pittsburgh's near-loss to the New York Jets on Saturday. In fact, the Jets should have won twice in that game, and would have, if Doug Brien connected on his field goal attempts.

Despite taking the Steelers into overtime, New York could not consistently move the chains against Pittsburgh. Pennington only threw for 182 yards and Curtis Martin rushed for just 77. That will change Sunday when the Patriots visit Heinz Field for the second time this season. In their first meeting, the Patriots committed four turnovers and ran the ball just six times. New England clearly struggled without a threat out of the backfield. Corey Dillon will play this time and should cause havoc for the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh will need to bring in extra defenders to stop Dillon, because they surrendered 4.5 yards per carry to Martin and LaMont Jordan last week. Once the Steelers put eight men in the box, Tom Brady will slowly shred Pittsburgh's secondary for long drives like he did against Indianapolis.

Ben Roethlisberger's sub par play is an enormous cause for concern. The rookie quarterback, who is hampered by an injured thumb, completed 17 of 30 passes for 181 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions Saturday and would have been the reason the Steelers lost. Pittsburgh survived, but if Roethlisberger has another performance like that, the Steelers will go down in flames. Bill Belichick and Romeo Crennel have seen Roethlisberger before and they will devise a game plan to confuse and disorient him, coaxing him into throwing bad passes against the best defense in the NFL. Roethlisberger will not have the luxury of Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley ripping off decent gains like they did against the Jets; New England yields just 3.7 yards per carry. Roethlisberger will be faced with many long-yardage situations against Belichick and his crew of big-play defenders. That's not good news for Steelers fans.

New England is clearly the best team in the NFL and should easily win this contest, advancing to their third Super Bowl in four years. Bill Cowher's futility in championship games will continue, while Brady improves his playoff record to 8-0.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 2-0 in AFC Championship games.
  • Bill Cowher is 1-3 in AFC Championship games.
  • Patriots are 6-2 ATS on the road this year.
  • Steelers are 6-3 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -2 (open) to Patriots -3.
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Snow, 26 degrees. 26 MPH Heavy Wind.

Prediction: Patriots by 17. (Patriots -3). Double Money Pick. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 9-6
Eagles: 10-7
Giants: 8-8
Redskins: 9-7

Bears: 8-8
Lions: 7-9
Packers: 8-7
Vikings: 6-12

Buccaneers: 7-7
Falcons: 9-7
Panthers: 10-5
Saints: 10-6

49ers: 7-9
Cardinals: 10-6
Rams: 10-7
Seahawks: 9-8

Bills: 12-4
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 9-8
Patriots: 10-5

Bengals: 9-7
Browns: 11-5
Ravens: 9-7
Steelers: 5-12

Colts: 12-5
Jaguars: 9-7
Texans: 11-5
Titans: 6-10

Broncos: 9-5
Chargers: 9-6
Chiefs: 5-11
Raiders: 10-6

Divisional Games: 49-43
Trend Edge: 34-39
Game Edge: 44-43
Game & Trend Edge: 9-8


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 1-4 (-$1,010)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 2-0 (+$1,000)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2014): 9-5 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (+$145)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-26, 55.2% (+$800)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 6-9-1, 40.0% (-$1,260)
2014 Season Over-Under: 89-69-2, 56.4% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$810

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-6
Bears: 5-5
Bucs: 8-2
49ers: 3-6
Eagles: 6-4
Lions: 3-6
Falcons: 5-5
Cardinals: 5-5
Giants: 3-7
Packers: 7-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 7-3
Vikings: 8-2
Saints: 4-5
Seahawks: 4-6
Bills: 4-6
Bengals: 4-7
Colts: 5-5
Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 6-3
Browns: 5-3
Jaguars: 5-5
Chargers: 3-7
Jets: 6-4
Ravens: 4-5
Texans: 5-5
Chiefs: 7-2
Patriots: 5-5
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 5-3
Raiders: 3-7
Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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