Steelers (2-3) at Falcons (3-2). Line: Steelers by 2˝. Over-Under: 37˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Falcons -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Falcons -3.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Steelers: OUT: LB James Harrison. DOUBTFUL: WR Willie Reid, LB Joey Porter. Falcons: OUT: WR Brian Finneran (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE John Abraham, DT Rod Coleman.

I’m not really sure what’s going on with the Falcons. Arthur Blank is having secret meetings with everyone but Jim Mora Jr., while the defensive coordinator is yelling at the offensive coordinator, who is yelling at Mora. The Falcons are a mess.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, seems to be on the rise following a bleak 1-3 start. The team resorted back to Steeler football, gashing the Chiefs on the ground. Of course it helped that Kansas City could not stop the run – although the Falcons can’t either. Look for Bill Cowher to give Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport as many carries as possible, which will open play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger, who threw only three incompletions last Sunday.

Everyone knows that Atlanta loves to run the ball, but everyone also recognizes that Pittsburgh excels at putting the clamps on running backs; the Steelers are ranked third in that department. Warrick Dunn won’t get much yardage, while Michael Vick will run into someone named Joey Porter if he scrambles left. If I’m correct in assuming that the Steelers will limit the Falcons’ ground game, Atlanta will have trouble scoring, given that Vick cannot throw the football.

The Steelers are obviously the better team, but it seems the public recognizes that as well. As of Wednesday evening, 93 percent of the public money is on Pittsburgh. Be careful if you’re going to bet the visitor.


The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

The Steelers are coming off a big blowout over Kansas City to keep their season alive. This isn't a must-win, but Pittsburgh is still two games behind Baltimore. Atlanta, now third in the NFC South, will also be looking for a victory. This contest probably means a little bit more to the Falcons, who will try to avoid losing two consecutive games at home.

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Two Homes (Loss): Jim Mora Jr. is 0-2 ATS at home following a home loss.
  • Steelers are 20-5 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -1˝.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Heath Miller.
  • Sit Em: Falcons Defense.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Falcons 20. (Steelers -2˝).
Incorrect: Falcons 41, Steelers 38.




Patriots (4-1) at Bills (2-4). Line: Patriots by 5˝. Over-Under: 37˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Patriots -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Patriots -6.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Patriots: OUT: S Mel Mitchell. QUESTIONABLE: TE Daniel Graham, CB Ellis Hobbs, S Eugene Wilson. Bills: OUT: DT John McCargo, S Troy Vincent (CUT). QUESTIONABLE: WR Roscoe Parrish, G Tutan Reyes, S Matt Bowen.

I can’t believe we’re already experiencing our first divisional rematch. It seems like only yesterday that I made the Patriots my first Double Money Pick of the regular season against Buffalo. To my chagrin, New England nearly lost, 19-17. Tom Brady later admitted that he was unfocused for the game because of the whole Deion Branch contract squabble. Brady had his worst game of the year, finishing 11-of-23 for 163 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Think Brady will be more prepared this time around? I’m expecting far fewer incompletions, and more of the same running from Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon. The two backs combined for 159 yards on 33 carries in Week 1. The Bills couldn’t even keep the Lions from consistently moving the chains last week. How are they going to stop a determined Patriots offense?

Conversely, J.P. Losman had his best game of the year against the Patriots. Since then, he has been going downhill. New England, meanwhile, has gotten better defensively every week. They even held Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and the rest of the Bengals to only 13 points. Willis McGahee won’t be able to run against the league’s ninth-ranked ground defense, forcing Losman to carry the offense on his shoulders. If the Patriots establish an early lead, Losman won’t have much success.

The Patriots have won their previous two visits to Orchard Park by an average of 21 points. I’m not expecting anything different to happen this time around.


The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
If the Bills have any postseason aspirations, they need to win this game. But the players probably know that they aren't going anywhere with J.P. Losman. Meanwhile, the Patriots will be focused, given that Buffalo outplayed them in Week 1.

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 11 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Bye Bye: Bill Belichick is 4-2 ATS off a bye with the Patriots.
  • Patriots are 18-7 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -6.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Showers, 50 degrees. Mild wind: 15 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, Ben Watson, Patriots Defense.
  • Sit Em: J.P. Losman, Willis McGahee, Bills Defense.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Bills 7. (Patriots -5˝).
Money Pick.
Correct: Patriots 28, Bills 6.




Panthers (4-2) at Bengals (3-2). Line: Bengals by 3. Over-Under: 44˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Bengals -4˝.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Bengals -3.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: RB DeAngelo Williams, OT Travelle Wharton (IR), LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: LB Thomas Davis, S Shaun Williams. Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), OT Levi Jones, C Rich Braham, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR). DOUBTFUL: LB Rashad Jeanty. QUESTIONABLE: LB Brian Simmons, S Dexter Jackson.

The Vegas oddsmakers deserve a lot of credit for this sharp line. To me, it was obvious that the Bengals were looking past the winless Buccaneers because they had a gauntlet of Carolina, Atlanta, Baltimore, San Diego and New Orleans on the horizon. After Cincinnati lost to Tampa Bay, I was hoping for a lower line to cater toward the public. Yet, Bengals -3˝ is perfect.

When a team is flat, it has problems offensively, which can explain why the Bengals scored only 13 points last week. Plus, it wasn’t like Tampa Bay’s defense was a pushover. Rudi Johnson will have problems running the ball, but Carson Palmer should be able to move the chains via the aerial game; Carolina is surrendering more than 200 passing yards per contest. One major key for Cincinnati will be keeping Julius Peppers out of the backfield. Peppers has a league-high eight sacks this season, while the Bengals have yielded 17 sacks to opponents. Pass protection could determine the winner of this battle.

The Bengals are ranked 26th versus the run, which is no surprise, given that middle linebacker Odell Thurman is out for the year. However, Carolina’s non-existent ground attack – DeShaun Foster is averaging 3.8 yards per carry – will not be able to exploit Cincinnati’s weakness. Thus, Jake Delhomme will have to locate Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson on obvious passing situations, which has worked rather well the past four weeks. No team in the NFL has the personnel to stop Smith, who has to be in consideration for MVP.

Carolina seems like the better team, but Cincinnati needs this game more. The latter is coming off back-to-back losses, while the former is feeling good about itself after four consecutive wins. The Bengals should be the more determined squad.


The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
The Bengals lost to the Buccaneers because they were looking ahead to this contest. Coming off back-to-back defeats, they will be more motivated than the Panthers, who now sit comfortably at 4-2.

The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 62-46 ATS on the road following a road win (John Fox 3-6 regardless).
  • Panthers are 21-10 ATS as an underdog the previous 30 instances.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Showers, 54 degrees. Mild wind: 12 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
  • Sit Em: DeShaun Foster, Rudi Johnson.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Panthers 20. (Bengals -3).
Push: Bengals 17, Panthers 14.




Jaguars (3-2) at Texans (1-4). Line: Jaguars by 9. Over-Under: 39˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Jaguars -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Jaguars -7.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR), LB Mike Peterson (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Matt Jones*, DT Marcus Stroud. QUESTIONABLE: QB Byron Leftwich*, DE Marcellus Wiley, CB Terry Cousin. Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins, KR Jerome Mathis (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: TE Jeb Putzier, OT Zach Wiegert, DE Antwan Peek, S Glenn Earl.

David Carr had the highest passer rating in the NFL going into Sunday’s game at Dallas. After that debacle he… ummm… let’s just move on.

Speaking of Carr, he once said in an interview that his team’s biggest rival is Jacksonville, so look for the Texans to play hard despite maintaining a 1-4 record. Running the ball won’t do much good because their non-existent ground attack will crash into a wall called the Jaguars’ defensive line. Houston will have to throw the ball to move the chains, which could be a tough proposition, given how porous its offensive line is. The Texans have surrendered 15 sacks this year, while the Jaguars have collected 12.

It’s no secret that Jacksonville will hand the ball off to Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in an attempt to open up play-action opportunities for Byron Leftwich. It’s also no secret that Houston can neither stop the run nor apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks. It’s going to be a long day for the Texans’ defense.

The Jaguars should win this game by double digits, but they won’t. The reason is simple: They have Philadelphia next week. Why should they care about the pathetic Texans? I’ll be shocked if Jacksonville is completely focused for this contest.


The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
This is a Look-Ahead Alert for the Jaguars, who have Philadelphia on the slate next week. They will probably be unfocused against the Texans, who will be looking to atone for a 28-point loss to Dallas.

The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • History: Jaguars have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 38-23 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Gary Kubiak 0-1).
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -8˝.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Andre Johnson, Fred Taylor, Reggie Williams, Jaguars Defense.
  • Sit Em: Texans Running Backs.

Prediction: Jaguars 16, Texans 10. (Texans +9).
Correct: Texans 27, Jaguars 7.




Chargers (4-1) at Chiefs (2-3). Line: Chargers by 5˝. Over-Under: 40˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Chargers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Chargers -3˝.

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: OT Roman Oben (PUP), DE Igor Olshansky, LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Shane Olivea, OT Marcus McNeill, S Bhawoh Jue. Chiefs: OUT: QB Trent Green, OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Will Svitek, DT John Browning (IR).

Philip Rivers has played three teams on the road this year: Oakland, Baltimore and San Francisco. We can throw out the Raiders and 49ers because neither is a real NFL team. Rivers was 13-of-22 for 145 yards, one touchdown and one interception at Baltimore. Not terrible, but not that impressive either.

Arrowhead will undoubtedly be the toughest venue Rivers has had to play in thus far. The raucous fans will be extremely loud, which could force him into making a few crucial mistakes. Thus, I am expecting a conservative game plan from Marty Schottenheimer. LaDainian Tomlinson will receive the bulk of the work, which will pay dividends against the NFL’s 20th-ranked run defense. Tomlinson needs to set Rivers up in second-and-short situations for the first-year signal caller to have any success in Kansas City.

San Diego’s defense is one of the league’s best against ground attacks. That was also the case last year. However, Larry Johnson was able to compile 131 yards against it on Christmas Eve. Will history repeat itself? Probably not – Johnson’s yards-per-carry average has decreased from 5.2 to 3.4, which can be attributed to Trent Green’s injury and Willie Roaf’s selfish retirement. The Chiefs figure to be in obvious passing situations all afternoon, which will be impossible to convert; San Diego has accumulated 21 sacks and seven interceptions this season.

The Chargers are obviously the better team, but I’m taking the Chiefs for four reasons: There is far too much public money on San Diego; Rivers will unquestionably struggle at Arrowhead; the host in this series almost always comes away with a victory; and Kansas City will play extra hard after losing by 38 at Pittsburgh.


The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
Big divisional matchup, as both teams hate each other. That said, this contest means a bit more to the Chiefs, who cannot afford to fall three games behind San Diego. Kansas City will be out to prove something after losing to Pittsburgh by 38.

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • History: Home Team has won 13 of the last 16 meetings.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 62-46 ATS on the road following a road win (Marty Schottenheimer 5-2 regardless).
  • Weak Arm: Philip Rivers is 2-1 ATS on the road.
  • Chiefs are 12-6 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -5˝.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: LaDainian Tomlinson, Eric Parker, Antonio Gates, Chargers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Damon Huard.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Chiefs 20. (Chiefs +5˝).
Money Pick.
Correct: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27.




Packers (1-4) at Dolphins (1-5). Line: Dolphins by 6. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Dolphins -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Dolphins -6.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Ahman Green, FB William Henderson, CB Charles Woodson, CB Will Blackmon. Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), CB Will Poole (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Marty Booker, WR Wes Welker, DE Kevin Carter, LB Derrick Pope, CB Travis Daniels, CB Michael Lehan, CB Michael Lehan.

This game probably sets the record for most combined quarterbacks who used to be good, but now are nothing more than third-stringers on any normal NFL team. Daunte Culpepper was amazing two years ago; Brett Favre’s skills have eroded; and Joey Harrington was once a Heisman hopeful at Oregon. Now you wouldn’t even offer a guy like Samkon Gado for any of those damaged signal callers.

That said, Favre is probably the best quarterback in this pathetic matchup. He was 22-of-39 for 220 yards and a touchdown against the Rams, so he can at least still get it done on occasion. Miami has yet to stop the likes of Chad Pennington and David Carr. However, one edge the Dolphins have is in the trenches; they have accumulated 15 sacks this season, which spells trouble for Favre’s beleaguered offensive line.

The only good quality Green Bay’s defense possesses is its ability to stop the run; it is ranked 12th in that department. Well, what a coincidence – the only thing Miami can do is hand the ball off to Ronnie Brown. Like the Dolphins, the Packers should be able to muster tons of pressure on Harrington; they have registered 14 sacks this campaign, while Miami has yielded a whopping 22.

The winner of this week’s early Toilet Bowl – the later one is Arizona at Oakland – should be the visitor. The Dolphins are confronted with a Boomerang Game, as they are returning from a winless three-game road trip.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both of these squads are already looking ahead to 2007.

The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Boomerang Game: Teams returning home from a three-game road trip are 6-13 ATS since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -4.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael.
  • Sit Em: Ahman Green.

Prediction: Packers 20, Dolphins 17. (Packers +6).
Correct: Packers 34, Dolphins 24.




Lions (1-5) at Jets (3-3). Line: Jets by 3˝. Over-Under: 42˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Jets -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Jets -7.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DT Shaun Rogers (SUSP), DT Shaun Cody, LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), S Kenoy Kennedy, S Idrees Bashir. Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: WR Laveranues Coles, WR Tim Dwight, CB David Barrett.

The Jets are really lucking out with their schedule. After getting squashed by Jacksonville, they were fortunate to be staring at a three-game stretch against Miami, Detroit and Cleveland. It doesn’t get any easier than that.

New York put the clamps on Miami’s offense until it started playing prevent defense in the fourth quarter. I’m expecting that trend to continue against the Lions. Mike Martz loves to throw the ball, so naturally, Jon Kitna has been sacked 22 times. Shaun Ellis, Victor Hobson and Jonathan Vilma should be able to apply ample pressure on Kitna, who has thrown a league-high seven interceptions this year. The Jets have already picked off seven passes themselves. By the way, New York is ranked 25th against the run, so any sensible coach would try to ram the ball down the team’s throat. But who said Martz is sensible?

The Lions registered five sacks against Buffalo, which nearly matched their season total of six going into last Sunday. J.P. Losman is the Bills’ quarterback, so it’s understandable how Detroit was able to look so good. That won’t continue against Chad Pennington and the Jets, who utilize a lot of short patterns. Pennington will torch the Lions, who are allowing 248 passing yards per contest.

I’m using the Jets as my survivor pick. I refuse to pick road teams, and I have already taken Indianapolis. The Seahawks are also a possibility, but they are coming off a very emotional victory at St. Louis.


The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
The Lions finally won, so they can go back to being worthless. The Jets are actually in the playoff hunt, so this means more to them.

The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Lions are 6-13 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Jets -4˝.
  • Opening Total: 40˝.
  • Weather: Showers, 62 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Roy Williams, Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
  • Sit Em: Jets Running Backs.

Prediction: Jets 20, Lions 10. (Jets -3˝).
Survivor Pool Pick (6-0)
Correct: Jets 31, Lions 24.




Eagles (4-2) at Buccaneers (1-4). Line: Eagles by 6. Over-Under: 42˝.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Eagles -7˝.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Eagles -7˝.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: Eagles: OUT: DE Jevon Kearse (IR). DOUBTFUL: CB Rod Hood. QUESTIONABLE: OT William Tra Thomas, DE Darren Howard. PROBABLE: WR Donte' Stallworth. Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms, DT Anthony McFarland (TRADE). QUESTIONABLE: DE Simeon Rice, LB Shelton Quarles, CB Juran Bolden.

Does anyone else find it odd that the Buccaneers traded away Pro Bowl defensive tackle Anthony McFarland to the Colts? It’s not like they’re 1-7; they’re 1-4, and still have a shot at the postseason. Well, make that “had a shot.” They’re not going anywhere with their concessible attitude.

Meanwhile, the Eagles will be determined to get back on the winning track after their let-down loss at New Orleans. Cornerback Brian Kelly could be out, so I have no idea how the Buccaneers will contain Philadelphia’s aerial attack; the Eagles just have too many weapons for most teams. Andy Reid should try running the ball in between the tackles; Tampa Bay is ranked 27th against opposing ground games, and in the wake of the McFarland deal, the interior of the team’s defensive line is significantly less potent.

Bruce Gradkowski has looked good thus far, but he has yet to play against a defensive line as dominant as Philadelphia’s. The Eagles have registered 23 sacks this campaign, and that number could increase to as much as 30 by the end of this contest. Philadelphia is also ranked 10th against the run, so don’t expect Cadillac Williams to do much.

I liked the Eagles a lot before I saw that 95 percent of the public was on them (as of Wednesday morning). I’m still picking them to cover, but I’m not placing a Double Money Pick on this game, as I initially planned to.


The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
The Eagles will rebound from a loss to New Orleans. Tampa Bay knows that it was very fortunate to come away with a victory against Cincinnati. Plus, it looks like the Buccaneers are giving up on their season; they traded defensive tackle Anthony McFarland away for a second-round pick.

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 62-46 ATS on the road following a road loss (Andy Reid 6-1).
  • Donovan McNabb is 13-5 ATS after a loss since 2001.
  • Eagles are 36-19 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 18-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Buccaneers are 11-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1996.
  • Jon Gruden is 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) vs. Andy Reid.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -4˝.
  • Opening Total: 41˝.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 84 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Donte' Stallworth, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, Eagles Defense.
  • Sit Em: Buccaneers Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Buccaneers 20. (Eagles -6).
Incorrect: Buccaneers 23, Eagles 21.




Broncos (4-1) at Browns (1-4). Line: Broncos by 5. Over-Under: 31˝.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Broncos -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Broncos -7.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Broncos: OUT: DE Courtney Brown (IR). Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim. QUESTIONABLE: WR Dennis Northcutt, TE Kellen Winslow Jr., CB Leigh Bodden, CB Gary Baxter, S Brian Russell.

How lethargic did the Broncos look against the Raiders? It appeared as though they didn’t care about the game at all. I guess they were too busy laughing at all of the mistakes Oakland was making.

Denver has yet to produce more than 17 points in a game this season, which will spell trouble in two weeks when it plays Indianapolis. Thus, the Broncos have to make sure they get going in this contest; if they can’t score more than 20 this week, they never will. The Browns are ranked 31st versus the run, so Tatum Bell figures to have a big day. Bell will set up play-action bootlegs for Jake Plummer, who should be able to locate Rod Smith and Javon Walker downfield.

Cleveland won’t have as much success moving the chains; Reuben Droughns’ yards-per-carry average of 3.3 won’t hold up against Denver’s defensive front, meaning Charlie Frye will have to beat the Broncos by himself. That’s not happening, especially on a rainy and windy day.

The Broncos might be caught looking ahead to Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, but they were so sluggish against Oakland that Mike Shanahan could have them completely focused for Cleveland. Your guess is as good as mine. I have no strong opinion on this game.


The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
This is a Sandwich Situation for the Broncos, who have two huge revenge games against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh coming up. Don't expect maximum effort from them against the Browns.

The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Broncos are 6-9 ATS after beating the Raiders under Mike Shanahan.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -5.
  • Opening Total: 31.
  • Weather: Showers, 53 degrees. Mild wind: 16 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Plummer, Tatum Bell, Rod Smith, Javon Walker, Broncos Defense.
  • Sit Em: Browns Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Broncos 20, Browns 16. (Browns +5).
Incorrect: Broncos 17, Browns 7.




Redskins (2-4) at Colts (5-0). Line: Colts by 9. Over-Under: 48˝.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Colts -10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Colts -14.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Redskins: OUT: CB Carlos Rogers. QUESTIONABLE: DT Cornelius Griffin. Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), DT Corey Simon (IR). QUESTIONABLE: G Ryan Lilja, S Bob Sanders, K Adam Vinatieri. NEWLY ACQUIRED: DT Anthony McFarland.

One of the most pathetic performances this season by any team was Washington’s 25-22 loss to Tennessee last week. Losing to a terrible squad like the Titans, especially at home, is a fireable offense. It’s a good thing for Joe Gibbs that he’s an icon in the nation’s capital.

With the Redskins’ season basically on the line – the Eagles and the winner of the Giants-Cowboys contest will be far ahead of them in the standings if they lose – Gibbs will have no choice but to turn to Clinton Portis, who inexplicably received only 14 carries last Sunday. Portis could run for as many as 150 yards, given that the Colts are ranked dead last in ground defense. This should be able to open up the play-action door for Mark Brunell, who will be throwing against a hobbled secondary.

The Colts’ offense isn’t what it used to be. The cog that’s missing is Edgerrin James, which is a big deal against the Redskins, who had severe problems containing Travis Henry. Indianapolis will be stuck in a lots of long-yardage situations, although that’s not a big deal, given that Washington is producing less than two sacks per game.

If the Redskins don’t show maximum effort on Sunday, I’ll be stunned. I just don’t know if it’ll be enough.


The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
Washington's season is on the line. A 2-5 record won't fly in the NFC East. The Colts, meanwhile, are confronted with a Breather Alert; they have Denver and New England coming up.

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Bye Bye: Tony Dungy is 1-3 ATS off a bye with the Colts.
  • Hello, Bye: Underdogs of 6˝ or more are 17-8 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Colts -9˝.
  • Opening Total: 46˝.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Mark Brunell, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Colts 34, Redskins 27. (Redskins +9).
Double Money Pick.
Incorrect: Colts 33, Redskins 22.




Cardinals (1-5) at Raiders (0-5). Line: Cardinals by 3. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Cardinals -3˝.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Cardinals -3˝.

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: WR Larry Fitzgerald. DOUBTFUL: G Milford Brown, DT Kendrick Clancy. QUESTIONABLE: LB James Darling. Raiders: OUT: QB Aaron Brooks, LB Grant Irons. QUESTIONABLE: OT Langston Walker, CB Fabian Washington.

Thanks to Dennis Green’s incredibly conservative play-calling and Neil Rackers’ choke job, the Cardinals suffered one of the worst meltdowns in league history. ESPN’s Sean Salisbury opined that there is no way they can recover from their collapse to the Bears. If you read my psychology section, you’ll find that I disagree with him.

Arizona will come out of the gate with the same game plan it had against Chicago; it will spread out its receivers and attack a very weak Raiders secondary. If the Cardinals could move the chains against the Bears, they should be able to do so against woeful Oakland. Let’s just hope Green doesn’t blow another game by going away from what should build him a seemingly comfortable lead.

It’s important for the Cardinals to establish an early advantage. That would keep the ball out of LaMont Jordan’s hands, and put the onus on Andrew Walter to throw the ball more often – which is never a good thing. If that happens, expect a lot of turnovers. That said, Jordan shouldn’t pose much of a threat anyway; his 3.7-yards-per-carry average won’t hold up against a determined unit that shut down Thomas Jones.

I think a lot of people may expect Arizona to collapse in the wake of its Monday night meltdown. I’m going the other way.


The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
Three years ago, Tampa Bay blew a 35-14 lead on Monday Night Football to the Colts, losing 38-35 in overtime. The Chiefs surrendered a 24-7 advantage to the Eagles last season, as they were defeated, 37-31. A few weeks ago, the Eagles surrendered a 17-point lead to the Giants, and consequently lost in overtime. And in what is considering one of the greatest Monday Night Football games of all time, the Jets overcame a 30-7 deficit to come out on top, 40-37.

So what happened to each team afterward? The Buccaneers rebounded by thrashing Washington, 35-13. Kansas City beat the Redskins after its bye, 27-20. The Eagles completely destroyed the 49ers the following week. And the Dolphins beat Green Bay, 28-20. Based on recent history, I’m expecting the Cardinals to play inspired football.

The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Weak Arm: Matt Leinart is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Zero Trend: 0-5 teams are 5-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Raiders are 5-16 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Raiders are 6-10 ATS after losing to the Broncos since 1995 (Mike Shanahan).
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -3.
  • Opening Total: 40˝.
  • Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Matt Leinart, Anquan Boldin, Cardinals Defense.
  • Sit Em: Dennis Green's anger-management councilor, Raiders Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Raiders 17. (Cardinals -3).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Raiders 22, Cardinals 9.




Vikings (3-2) at Seahawks (4-1). Line: Seahawks by 7. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Seahawks -6˝.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Seahawks -7˝.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Vikings: OUT: DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). Seahawks: OUT: RB Shaun Alexander*, WR Bobby Engram*, G Pork Chop Womack, DT Marcus Tubbs, S Mike Green (IR). QUESTIONABLE: TE Jerramy Stevens, LB D.D. Lewis.

I don’t think Seattle expected anyone to challenge it for the NFC West title this year. But give credit to the Rams – they came out of nowhere and maintained a large lead over the Seahawks, who squeaked out a victory on a Josh Brown 54-yard field goal. When the ball sailed through the uprights, Mike Holmgren looked like a man who was extremely relieved to come out of a long battle.

His team’s comeback may come back to haunt them this week; I’m expecting Seattle to be flat following a very emotional win. That means there may not have a lot of intensity when it comes to stopping the run. Chester Taylor will come close to the 100-yard plateau, which should set up a few easy passes for Brad Johnson. Even if Taylor can’t run, the Vikings have surrendered only seven sacks this year. The improved offensive line should keep Seattle’s defensive front at bay.

Shaun Alexander, Maurice Morris – it clearly doesn’t matter. The Seahawks cannot run the ball because Steve Hutchinson defected to the Vikings. Morris, who is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, is actually faring better than Alexander and his mark of 2.9. Minnesota surprisingly is seeded first against opposing ground attacks, meaning Matt Hasselbeck will be confronted with a plethora of long-yardage situations. The Vikings need to summon a pass rush if they want to win this game. Their total of 11 sacks this year isn’t too encouraging.

As I mentioned earlier, I believe the Seahawks will be unfocused for this contest. If I’m right, the Vikings could come away with an upset – or at least keep it close.


The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
The Seahawks are coming off a big win, so this is a Let-Down Alert. I'm not sure how much this contest means to them. Meanwhile, this is a big test for the Vikings, who can prove that they are "for real."

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Statfox Trend: SEAHAWKS are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 15-31 ATS in that situation since 2000; Mike Holmgren 1-2).
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 52-77 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; SEAHAWKS kicked a GW field goal as time expired.
  • Vikings are 11-20 ATS (5-26 SU) outdoors since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -7.
  • Opening Total: 42˝.
  • Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Troy Williamson, Jermaine Wiggins, Matt Hasselbeck, Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch.
  • Sit Em: Maurice Morris.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Vikings 20. (Vikings +7).
Money Pick.
Correct: Vikings 31, Seahawks 13.




Giants (3-2) at Cowboys (3-2). Line: Cowboys by 3˝. Over-Under: 45.
Monday, 8:30 ET
Walter's Game of the Week

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 6 Games): Cowboys -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 6 Games): Cowboys -3.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Giants: DOUBTFUL: WR Sinorice Moss. QUESTIONABLE: LB Carlos Emmons, S Gibril Wilson. Cowboys: OUT: S Marcus Coleman (CUT).

It’s hard to criticize a quarterback in a 34-6 victory, but Drew Bledsoe was absolutely brutal against the Texans. He overthrew wide-open receivers, took ill-advised sacks, and looked as slow and old as ever. And it’s not like that was his only bad game; Bledsoe’s passer rating this season stands at 70.4.

If Bledsoe continues his poor play, the Cowboys will lose. The Giants, despite allowing Atlanta to rush for 223 yards, are giving up only 3.7 yards per carry. That means Julius Jones will frequently be stuffed in the backfield, which will force Bledsoe to operate in long-yardage situations. Dallas’ offensive line has been disappointing this year – it has yielded slightly less than 2˝ sacks per game – meaning their ability to pass protect will be very crucial, given that Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan will be lining up on the other side of the ball. New York’s secondary can’t cover anyone, but that won’t matter if Bledsoe doesn’t have time to throw.

Much like the Giants, the Cowboys are also prolific against opposing ground attacks. However, there are two major differences between the two teams: Eli Manning is much better than Bledsoe, and the Giants’ offensive front is slightly superior to Dallas’. Tiki Barber won’t have much success finding wide-open running lanes, but he should be able to muster about 70 rushing yards, giving Manning enough breathing room to find Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer downfield.

This will be a tight, low-scoring affair that could go either way. I think the Cowboys will jump out to a small lead, but the Giants should be in position to win this NFC East battle in the fourth quarter.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
This should be a close, highly contested game between two rivals who need a win to keep pace with Philadelphia.

The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Giants have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 62-46 ATS on the road following a road win (Tom Coughlin 5-4).
  • Cowboys are 16-7 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -3˝.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Clear, 58 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten.
  • Sit Em: Julius Jones.

Prediction: Cowboys 17, Giants 16. (Giants +3˝).
Correct: Giants 36, Cowboys 22.


My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 4-1
Eagles: 5-1
Giants: 3-2
Redskins: 4-2

Bears: 3-3
Lions: 5-1
Packers: 4-0
Vikings: 3-2

Buccaneers: 1-4
Falcons: 3-2
Panthers: 2-3
Saints: 3-3

49ers: 4-2
Cardinals: 2-4
Rams: 3-2
Seahawks: 3-2

Bills: 2-4
Dolphins: 3-2
Jets: 4-2
Patriots: 2-2

Bengals: 4-1
Browns: 1-2
Ravens: 3-3
Steelers: 3-2

Colts: 1-3
Jaguars: 1-3
Texans: 4-1
Titans: 3-2

Broncos: 1-3
Chargers: 2-3
Chiefs: 2-3
Raiders: 2-2

Divisional Games: 16-19
Trend Edge: 12-14
Game Edge: 16-19
Psychological Edge: 6-4
Double Edge: 7-8
Triple Edge: 0-1


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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