NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2017



NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 4-6 (-$410)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2017): 4-6 (-$410)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Buffalo Bills (0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Line: Ravens by 3.5.

Saturday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I don't like betting favorites in the preseason, so -3.5 seems pretty terrible. However, the Ravens feel like the right away to go. John Harbaugh is money in the preseason (unless it's Week 4), and the Bills seem like they're in total disarray.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Sean McDermott is 0-2 in preseason games.
  • Sean McDermott is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 26-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 6-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Bills 16
    Ravens -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
    Line: Falcons by 3.5.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I don't love the Cardinals here, but they seem like the right side. They have the better depth overall, and fading Atlanta's Matt Simms seems like a good idea, especially given that we're getting the hook.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Bruce Arians is 8-11 in preseason games.
  • Bruce Arians is 1-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Dan Quinn is 5-5 in preseason games.
  • Dan Quinn is 0-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Falcons 17, Cardinals 16
    Cardinals +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








    Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
    Line: Rams by 2.5.

    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I don't like much this week, but the Rams -2.5 -115 makes sense to me. Sean McVay won both preseason games thus far, as he seems focused on preparing Jared Goff for real action. Philip Rivers will play for the Chargers, but I don't know how long he'll be on the field. The Chargers' backup quarterbacks are an abomination.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Anthony Lynn is 0-2 in preseason games.
  • Anthony Lynn is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean McVay is 2-0 in preseason games.
  • Sean McVay is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Chargers 20
    Rams -2.5 -115 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$115







    Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Denver Broncos (2-0)
    Line: Broncos by 3.

    Saturday, 9:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Vance Joseph is 2-0, so betting against him doesn't feel great, but the Packers have an extensive history of winning Week 3 of the preseason because of Aaron Rodgers. Getting three points with them seems like a good deal.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Mike McCarthy is 25-20 in preseason games (12-7 excluding Week 3 games).
  • Mike McCarthy is 7-4 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Vance Joseph is 2-0 in preseason games.
  • Vance Joseph is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Broncos 20
    Packers +3 (2 Units) -- Push; $0







    San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
    Line: Vikings by 4.

    Sunday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Again, I hate betting favorites of more than a field goal in the preseason, but this is a special occasion. Mike Zimmer broke my heart last week, but I think the Vikings will rebound. They take winning in the preseason seriously, so I expect them to beat the 49ers easily.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 1-1 in preseason games.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 13-2 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 3-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, 49ers 13
    Vikings -4 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110





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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 2-0 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 0-2 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 0-1 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 0-2 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 2-0 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 1-1 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 1-1 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 2-0 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 1-1 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 1-1 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 1-1 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 1-1 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 1-1 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 1-1 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 0-2 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 2-0 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 2-0 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 1-1 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 1-0 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-1 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 0-2 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 2-0 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 0-1 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 2-0 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 2-0 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 1-1 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 2-0 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 1-1 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 6-3 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 2-4 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 5-6 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 4-3 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 2-4 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 2-3 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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