49ers (5-8) at Seahawks (8-5). Line: Seahawks by 9½. Over-Under: 40½.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Seahawks -10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Seahawks -10.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: 49ers: OUT: TE Eric Johnson, OT Adam Snyder, C Jeremy Newberry (IR), DT Anthony Adams LB Derek Smith. Seahawks: OUT: WR Darrell Jackson, C Robbie Tobeck, DT Marcus Tubbs, S Mike Green (IR).

Why is the NFL Network broadcasting the 49ers and Browns on back-to-back weeks? What were they thinking? “Hmmm… Cleveland and San Francisco stink every year, but maybe they’ll be good because we’re broadcasting games now! And if that doesn’t happen, let’s hope that all 30 teams have their plane crash, so they’re the top teams in the league.” “Wow, that sounds like a brilliant idea boss! Let’s see what happens if we plug this cord into an outlet that’s soaked in water!”

Here we go again Niners fans… Playing on the road has been extremely difficult for San Francisco this season, as the team has been blown out by superior opponents (41-10 at Chicago; 41-0 at Kansas City; 34-10 at New Orleans). They’ve played tough at Arizona, Detroit and St. Louis, but that’s not exactly hard to do. The 49ers may have extreme difficulty in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. That’s why establishing Frank Gore early and often is very instrumental to their success – the Seahawks are 26th against opposing ground attacks. But if Gore can’t get going, Seattle’s monstrous pass rush will swallow Alex Smith up on a rainy Thursday night.

When I mentioned San Francisco’s futility against top-tier opponents on the road, I didn’t say which category the Seahawks fall into. Since Matt Hasselbeck returned to the lineup, they beat Green Bay by 10, struggled against a shaky Jay Cutler, and lost at Arizona. Like the 49ers, the Seahawks must establish a running game against a weak stop unit. That will enable Hasselbeck to torch one of the worst secondaries in the league.

It’s always tough to win on the road on a Thursday night. The week is just too short for a visiting team. I expect San Francisco’s traveling woes to continue, as Seattle claims revenge.

Thursday Morning Note: Weather.com is reporting that there may be heavy winds for this game. Thus, I'm lowering the projected score.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

Although the Seahawks lost to the Cardinals, they don't really need this game; they're sitting comfortably atop the NFC West, and barely have a shot at a first-round bye. They may want revenge on the 49ers.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
This new section of my predictions will explore the public perception of each team, and how this game is being bet.

The public was burnt on the 49ers last week. I don't expect many people to be betting on them in this spot.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 71% (About 23,000 online bets)

    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
    • History: Seahawks have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
    • Weak Revenge: Mike Holmgren is 0-3 ATS in divisional revenge games since 2002.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-29 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Mike Nolan 3-1).
    • Opening Line: Seahawks -9.
    • Opening Total: 45.
    • Weather: Rain, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 19 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Frank Gore, Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Deion Branch, Seahawks Defense.
    • Sit Em: 49ers Defense.

    Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 7. (Seahawks -9½).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: 49ers 24, Seahawks 14.




    Cowboys (8-5) at Falcons (7-6). Line: Cowboys by 3. Over-Under: 44.
    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Cowboys -3½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Cowboys -3.

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: LB Greg Ellis, S Marcus Coleman (CUT), KR Tyson Thompson (IR). Falcons: OUT: WR Brian Finneran (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR), CB Kevin Mathis (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Warrick Dunn*, RB Jerious Norwood*, CB Jason Webster.

    It’s time for the Adventures of Michael Vick Overcoming His Coaching! In this week’s episode, Jim Mora Jr. plants a bomb in Vick’s locker. Vick has to single-handedly defuse the bomb and beat the Dallas Cowboys at the same time. What will happen? Tune in to find out!

    So, Tony Romo’s human after all. How about that? The so-called second coming of Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman struggled for the first time in his career Sunday night, as he threw two interceptions. Luckily for him, he gets to rebound against a Falcons secondary that surrenders 235 passing yards per contest. Romo will also have time to locate Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten downfield; Atlanta lacks a defender with more than 4½ sacks.

    The Falcons are renowned for their ground attack, but that could be a problem, as both Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood are questionable. Furthermore, Dallas is eighth against the run. If Dunn and Norwood are out – or hampered enough by injuries so that they’re not 100 percent – the Cowboys will be able to key in on Michael Vick. We all saw what Drew Brees was able to do to Dallas’ secondary. Vick can try to do the same, but that’ll just end up with middle fingers, coach-killing comments and many boos from the stands. Could we see Matt Schaub for an extended period of time? It wouldn’t shock me.

    The Cowboys are great off a loss, and they win the games they’re supposed to. This line seems a bit shady, and I hate taking public road favorites on national TV, but I think Dallas is the right side.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Cowboys will lose their stronghold over the NFC East with a loss here. The Falcons, meanwhile, need to avoid a 7-7 record.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    People love to bet on America's team when it plays on national TV. Plus, all of the Michael Vick haters will be going against Atlanta.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 64% (24,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
    • Cowboys are 18-9 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
    • Cowboys are 4-0 ATS after a loss this year.
    • Tony Romo is 5-2 as a starter (4-2 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Cowboys -3.
    • Opening Total: 43.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, Alge Crumpler.
    • Sit Em: Warrick Dunn*, Jerious Norwood*, Falcons Defense.

    Prediction: Cowboys 23, Falcons 17. (Cowboys -3).
    Correct: Cowboys 38, Falcons 28.




    Browns (4-9) at Ravens (10-3). Line: Ravens by 11½. Over-Under: 34.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Ravens -12.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Ravens -14.

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim, DE Orpheus Roye, LB D'Qwell Jackson, CB Gary Baxter. DOUBTFUL: G Joe Andruzzi. QUESTIONABLE: QB Charlie Frye, WR Dennis Northcutt, DE Nick Eason, DT Ted Washington, LB Willie McGinest, CB Leigh Bodden. Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR), PR B.J. Sams. QUESTIONABLE: WR Derrick Mason*, LB Dan Cody, S Gerome Sapp.

    Since this looks like the most boring game ever, I have to mention that my friend convinced me to buy Trivial Pursuit for PlayStation 2. I’ve learned a lot of interesting things over the past week, like a touchdown used to be worth five points prior to 1912, and Greenland, not Canada, is the northern most country on this planet. OK, yeah, I have no life.

    Why is this the most boring game ever? Derek Anderson. On the road. Against Baltimore’s defense. Enough said. I know Charlie Frye is questionable, but I’m hearing that it is likely Anderson will start. The Browns scored only seven points at Pittsburgh. How will they produce anything against the Ravens?

    Conversely, the Ravens should be able to score enough points to cover. Cleveland was pathetic last week, permitting Willie Parker to break the Steelers’ all-time rushing record for a single game. Jamal Lewis has the league record – and he set that mark against the Browns. Lewis will easily eclipse the 150-yard plateau, allowing Steve McNair to orchestrate a few play-action fakes to Todd Heap and Derrick Mason.

    Given the amount of action on Baltimore, this is a square play. But I just can’t trust Derek Anderson on the road against a great defense. Cleveland gave the Ravens trouble in Week 3, so the Ravens may have that in the back of their mind.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    This game doesn't mean much to either squad.

    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    No one in their right mind would bet on the Browns right now.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 79% (42,000)

    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
    • History: Home Team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-29 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Romeo Crennel 1-4).
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 81-57 ATS on the road following a road loss (Romeo Crennel 3-0 regardless).
    • Weak Arm: Derek Anderson is 0-1 ATS on the road. ???
    • Ravens are 36-9 SU; 29-16 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2000 (24-38 SU vs. non-losing).
    • Opening Line: Ravens -12½.
    • Opening Total: 33½.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Steve McNair, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, Browns Defense.
    • Sit Em: Cleveland Clowns Offense and Defense. I mean Browns. Whatever.

    Prediction: Ravens 31, Browns 0. (Ravens -11½).
    Survivor Pool Pick (14-0).
    Incorrect: Ravens 27, Browns 17.




    Steelers (6-7) at Panthers (6-7). Line: Steelers by 3. Over-Under: 34.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Panthers -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Panthers -1.

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.
    Injuries: Steelers: OUT: WR Hines Ward*, S Troy Polamalu. QUESTIONABLE: WR Cedrick Wilson. Panthers: OUT: OT Travelle Wharton (IR), C Justin Hartwig, DT Jordan Carstens, LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: QB Jake Delhomme*, TE Kris Mangum, G Mike Wahle, CB Chris Gamble, CB Ken Lucas.

    It’s time for my weekly Heroes discussion. If you watch the show, you know that Peter is the one responsible for the explosion in the future. So, why did he do that? Easy. Sterling Sharpe threatened to crack some skulls – especially the hot cheerleader’s – so Peter had to do something to stop him. And yeah, I intend to mention Sterling Sharpe’s infatuation with cracking skulls every week for the next 20 years. It’ll never get old. Never!

    Does anyone know why the Steelers are favored? Jake Delhomme is questionable, but I’m hearing that it is likely he will play. Even if he doesn’t, what has Pittsburgh done, besides demolishing Tampa Bay and Cleveland, two of the worst squads in the NFL? The Steelers still have issues with their secondary, and I think that will become very apparent in this contest; Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson will tear it apart. The only thing that will hurt Carolina is if John Fox goes into one of his I’ll-run-the-ball-until-I-die-of-old-age modes. At least two of the Panthers’ defeats can be attributed to that.

    Does any Steeler fan find it concerning that Ben Roethlisberger completed only 50 percent of his passes against the Buccaneers and Browns? Pittsburgh was able to score because of Willie Parker. Unfortunately for them, the Panthers are 13th against the run. Parker won’t gain 220 yards this time around.

    Under Fox, the Panthers have always thrived as an underdog. They’re at their best when no one believes in them. Given the spread and the action the public is taking, that appears to be the case.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Panthers are still in it. The Steelers think they're still in it. Both teams will bring 100 percent.

    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    I don't think anyone wants a part of the Panthers right now.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (24,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
    • Steelers are 19-7 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 26 instances.
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 32-10 as a starter (26-16 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Steelers -2½.
    • Opening Total: 34.
    • Weather: Sunny, 69 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Heath Miller, Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson.
    • Sit Em: Both Running Games.

    Prediction: Panthers 27, Steelers 17. (Panthers +3).
    Incorrect: Steelers 37, Panthers 3.




    Buccaneers (3-10) at Bears (11-2). Line: Bears by 13½. Over-Under: 34.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Bears -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Bears -14.

    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms, DT Anthony McFarland (TRADE). QUESTIONABLE: DT Ellis Wyms, LB Shelton Quarles, CB Juran Bolden. Bears: OUT: DT Tommie Harris (IR), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Mike Brown (IR). DOUBTFUL: DT Tank Johnson (stupidity). QUESTIONABLEL RB Thomas Jones*, OT John Tait, CB Nathan Vasher, S Todd Johnson.

    Yawn. On a related note, I recently remembered that one of my friends told me she takes her dog out for a run on occasion. I felt inspired, so I went running with my Akita, Diana. One minute later, I had to stop and catch my breath. The sad thing is, Diana had to do the same. So anyway, I somehow made it back to my house. I had to sit down because I felt like I was going to pass out. Diana too.

    That’s the feeling the Buccaneers are going to have when playing the Bears. How will their inept offense score on Chicago’s defense? It won’t – Bruce Gradkowski has lost by an average of 15.2 points per game on the road, which actually includes a 3-point defeat to New Orleans, when the Saints didn’t know what to expect. Brian Urlacher will actually pick Gradkowski up, stuff him inside his mouth and spit his bones out onto the field.

    Rex Grossman looked great against the Rams, but that’s not exactly an outstanding feat, as St. Louis boasts one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Well, the Buccaneers aren’t much better. They can actually stop the run, but they lack a pass rush, and consequently struggle against aerial attacks. Tampa Bay just got way too old.

    This may seem like a very square play – check out how much action is on the Bears – but I don’t think Vegas could have set this line high enough. Chicago’s defense versus Gradkowski on the road? Seems like a no-brainer. That said, I’ll probably lose this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Chicago has the NFC locked up, so it doesn't need to win. Then again, the Buccaneers aren't going anywhere either.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    I don't know if Vegas can make this line high enough. Everyone and their ugly stepsister will be on the Bears.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 65% (31,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
    • Weak Arm: Bruce Gradkowski is 1-4 ATS on the road.
    • Opening Line: Bears -13.
    • Opening Total: 33.
    • Weather: Rain, 49 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Muhsin Muhammad, Bears Defense.
    • Sit Em: Buccaneers Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Bears 27, Buccaneers 0. (Bears -13½).
    Incorrect: Bears 34, Buccaneers 31.




    Lions (2-11) at Packers (5-8). Line: Packers by 5½. Over-Under: 43½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Packers -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Packers -7.

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DE James Hall (IR), DT Shaun Rogers (IR), LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), CB Fernando Bryant, S Idrees Bashir. QUESTIONABLE: TE Marcus Pollard, LB Teddy Lehman. Packers: OUT: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR), WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Donald Driver*, OT Mark Tauscher.

    I’d like to nominate the Lions as the worst team ever. Seriously, how do you allow Brad Johnson and Artose Pinner to hang 30 on you? Fortunately, I have a solution for all of their troubles. William Clay Ford needs to hire Emilio Estevez, who will make the Lions believe in themselves. Sure, they’ll lose at first, but they’ll eventually gain enough confidence to finally beat the dreaded Hawks. Oh yeah, and they also need to find some sort of ringer – a guy who can throw an 80-yard touchdown pass once every five attempts. Wait, that sort of sounds like J.P. Losman. Hmmm…

    Joshua Jackson and Golberg could help too. Unfortunately, the Lions have to resort to the likes of Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Arlen Harris. With Kevin Jones out of the lineup, Detroit will have to throw the ball nearly every play – which was probably going to be the game plan anyway, given that the Packers have been somewhat successful against the run. But Green Bay’s secondary has been a problem; it is currently surrendering more than 230 passing yards per contest.

    The NFL is a funny league. The Packers lost to the Jets, 38-10, and were a marginal underdog against the 49ers. After a 30-19 victory, they’re now a marginal favorite over a team almost as pathetic as them. OK, make that a lot more pathetic; Detroit surrendered 30 points to Brad Johnson and Artose Pinner. Imagine what Brett Favre, Ahman Green and Donald Driver are going to do.

    Everyone is on Green Bay, which is why I’m taking the Lions, right? Well that’s one reason. The Packers haven’t been dominant at home this year, and they’ve actually only beaten Detroit by three at Lambeau Field the past two years. The Lions hung with the Patriots at Foxboro two weeks ago. This could be another matchup decided by a field goal.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No playoffs for either squad.

    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    The Lions are a joke, and everyone knows it. No one's going to wager on them.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 80% (31,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
    • History: Packers have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.
    • Lions are 1-5 ATS on the road in 2006.
    • Packers are 9-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Packers -4.
    • Opening Total: 44.
    • Weather: Showers, 43 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Packers Offense.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Packers 20, Lions 17. (Lions +5½).
    Incorrect: Packers 17, Lions 9.




    Jets (7-6) at Vikings (6-7). Line: Vikings by 3½. Over-Under: 41.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Vikings -1½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Vikings -2.

    The Game. Edge: .
    Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: FB B.J. Askew, DT Bryan Thomas, CB David Barrett, S Eric Smith. Vikings: OUT: FB Tony Richardson, DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Chester Taylor*.

    I’ve mentioned a few times that Eric Mangini looks like the fat kid from Goonies. I stand by that statement, but I discovered who his long-lost twin is. For all of you 24 fans out there, remember Lynn “Can’t Chill” McGill from Season 5? These guys look like brothers. For those of you who don’t know what I’m talking about, Check This Out.

    McGill, I mean, Mangini was furious about his team’s effort against the Bills. The Jets’ defense was exposed, as Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas trampled them on the ground, while J.P. Losman connected with Lee Evans on a long bomb. However, I don’t think the Vikings have the offensive tools to duplicate Buffalo’s performance. Brad Johnson is not playing well this season, while Chester Taylor may not even be available. Plus, Minnesota does not have any receivers as talented as Evans.

    Chad Pennington also struggled, throwing two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. That said, he should be able to get back on track, as the Vikings boast one of the NFL’s worst secondaries. The Jets won’t be able to run the ball against Minnesota’s dynamic front seven, but it won’t even matter; Pennington could eclipse 300 yards.

    This seems way too easy. If the Jets are the better team from the superior conference, why are they a 3-point underdog? Everyone is betting on them. This seems like a sucker bet, although I’ve spotted an even greater one this week. Keep reading to find out who that is.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both teams need a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    There will probably be close to 50-50 action in this spot.
  • Percentage of money on NY Jets: 61% (34,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
    • Vikings are 9-5 ATS at home since 2005.
    • Opening Line: Vikings -3.
    • Opening Total: 38½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
    • Sit Em: Jets Running Backs.

    Prediction: Vikings 20, Jets 13. (Vikings -3½).
    Incorrect: Jets 26, Vikings 13.




    Texans (4-9) at Patriots (9-4). Line: Patriots by 11. Over-Under: 37½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Patriots -13.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Patriots -13.

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.
    Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), OT Zach Wiegert (IR), LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins, KR Jerome Mathis (PUP). DOUBTFUL: S C.C. Brown. Patriots: OUT: LB Junior Seau (IR), S Rodney Harrison, S Eugene Wilson, S Mel Mitchell. QUESTIONABLE: RB Laurence Maroney, TE Ben Watson*, TE Daniel Graham, OT Ryan O'Callaghan, DT Vince Wilfork.

    Speaking of Eric Mangini looking like Lynn McGill, check out these Long-Lost Twins.

    Unlike Tony Kornheiser and the Burger King king, everyone will be able to tell the Patriots and Texans apart. For one, Houston can’t stop the run, meaning Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney could combine for at least 150 yards. The Texans don’t have a player with more than 4½ sacks, so Tom Brady will have all the time in the world to locate his receivers. Houston also lacks a decent secondary.

    So, what do the Texans have? A horrendous offensive line that has surrendered 38 sacks this year? Definitely. A skittish quarterback who has taken far too many hits the past four-and-a-half years? Absolutely. A non-existent ground attack? You bet.

    I’m making three very square plays this week. The first two – Chicago and Baltimore – are a product of terrible, inexperienced quarterbacks playing on the road against dominant defenses. In this case, the Patriots are coming off a loss. As you can tell below, they’ve made bettors a lot of money in this situation. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will bounce back.


    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    The Patriots will be looking to bounce back from a loss.

    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    Expect heavy action on the Patriots.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 73% (41,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
    • Patriots are 30-22 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
    • Patriots are 13-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Patriots are 9-3 ATS after a loss since 2003.
    • Tom Brady is 77-24 as a starter (61-38 ATS).
    • Tom Brady is 3-1 ATS after losing to the Dolphins.
    • Opening Line: Patriots -11.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 20 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Patriots Offense and Defense.
    • Sit Em: Texans Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 10. (Patriots -11).
    Correct: Patriots 40, Texans 7.




    Redskins (4-9) at Saints (9-4). Line: Saints by 10. Over-Under: 46½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Saints -10½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Saints -12.

    The Game. Edge: Saints. Injuries: Redskins: OUT: RB Clinton Portis. QUESTIONABLE: OT Jon Jansen, C Casey Rabach. Saints: OUT: G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), DT Hollis Thomas (SUSP), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), P Mitch Berger (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Joe Horn*, S Omar Stoutmire.

    Prior to Monday, I thought I was the only person on Earth aware of Al Saunders’ ineptness. I was relieved to hear my local sports-talk radio station (610 WIP) making fun of him. In case you missed it, the Redskins were running all over the Eagles’ pathetic defense with Ladell Betts. When the Redskins reached the red zone, Saunders completely abandoned the run, and threw the ball with his rookie quarterback like 100 times in a row. Anyway, I’m glad someone else noticed how terrible Saunders is. Soon, everyone will realize that Saunders is counting the money he stole from Daniel Snyder instead of devising effective game plans. Muhahaha.

    It’ll be hard for Saunders to mess this one up. Betts is running the ball really well; he has gained at least 150 rushing yards the past two weeks, and the Saints are statistically worse against opposing ground attacks than the two squads he has already trampled (Atlanta and Philadelphia). I expect Betts to gain about 165 yards, which will give Jason Campbell ample time to locate Santana Moss and Chris Cooley downfield.

    Sean Payton is a genius, and may have established himself as the premier play-caller in the NFL. It seems like he knows what to do at any given moment. Washington’s defense is horrendous, so Payton and his players will have a field day. Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush will both run over the NFL’s 25th-ranked run defense, while Drew Brees will torch a weak secondary that receives no help from a 15-sack pass rush.

    I think the Saints will be flat for this game, as it falls between Dallas and the Giants. Washington has stayed within 10 of each opponent it has played with Campbell at the helm. I don’t expect this to be any different.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    An obvious Sandwich Situation for the Saints; they're coming off a victory against Dallas, and after this contest, they have the Giants and Panthers.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    Think there will be heavy action on New Orleans? The Saints completely embarrassed America's Team on national TV.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 78% (48,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Weak Arm: Jason Campbell is 0-0 ATS on the road.
    • Saints are 6-13 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Saints are 16-27 ATS at home since 2001.
    • Saints are 9-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Saints -9.
    • Opening Total: 42½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Ladell Betts, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Saints Offense.
    • Sit Em: Redskins Defense.

    Prediction: Saints 24, Redskins 20. (Redskins +10).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Redskins 16, Saints 10.




    Jaguars (8-5) at Titans (6-7). Line: Jaguars by 3½. Over-Under: 40½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Jaguars -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Jaguars -3.

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: QB Byron Leftwich, RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR), LB Mike Peterson (IR), S Donovin Darius (IR). QUESTIONABLE: P Chris Hanson. Titans: OUT: WR David Givens (IR), TE Ben Troupe, DE Antwan Odom, DT Rien Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Travis Henry*, RB LenDale "White Castle" White, WR Drew Bennett*, WR Brandon Jones, TE Bo Scaife, G Benji Olson, DT Albert Haynesworth.

    Since I have nothing semi-creative to say about this game, check out This Video on YouTube. And people wonder why I don’t charge for my picks. I’m ashamed I took the Rams on Monday night; I should have faded this guy.

    Hopefully he won’t be on my side for this contest, because this in all likelihood is my Double Money Pick. First of all, I can’t decide whether the Jaguars were great, or the Colts were just lousy last week. Jacksonville didn’t even need to throw the ball; the team gained 10 yards per carry. That won’t happen against Tennessee. Even though the Titans are 21st against the run, they’ve gotten substantially better at stopping it the past few weeks. In fact, their previous poor performance in that department occurred on Nov. 5 when they lost 37-7 at Jacksonville. David Garrard will actually have to make plays in this contest, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing; Garrard threw for three touchdowns in that meeting.

    Vince Young has blossomed into a quarterback who looks like he can be the next John Elway. I don’t know how he’s doing it at this level, but Young is winning games by himself. He was responsible for a trifecta of interceptions at Jacksonville, but I expect that to change this time around. He has improved, while the Jaguars won’t have Donovin Darius.

    This is the type of game Jacksonville typically loses. The team beats opponents it’s not supposed to defeat, and loses contests where it should blow out the other squad. I don’t know how focused the Jaguars will be. They just won their Super Bowl against Indianapolis, and have revenge on their minds as they battle New England next week. Young should be able to get it done once again.


    The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
    This is the type of game the Jaguars lose; this is a Sandwich Situation for them, as the Titans fall between Indianapolis and New England.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    It's tough to say where the public will go. On one hand, everyone saw the Jaguars crush the Colts. On the other, casual bettors are falling in love with Vince Young.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 50% (31,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
    • History: Jaguars have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 59-84 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; TITANS won in overtime.
    • Opening Line: Jaguars -3½.
    • Opening Total: 41.
    • Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Vince Young, Both Defenses.
    • Sit Em: Travis Henry.

    Prediction: Titans 16, Jaguars 13. (Titans +3½).
    Double Money Pick.
    Correct: Titans 24, Jaguars 17.




    Dolphins (6-7) at Bills (6-7). Line: Bills by 1. Over-Under: 34.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Bills -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Bills -2.

    The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
    Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: RB Ronnie Brown*, G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), CB Will Poole (IR). QUESTIONABLE: G Jeno James, DT Dan Wilkinson. Bills: OUT: G Chris Villarrial, S Troy Vincent (CUT). QUESTIONABLE: OT Jason Peters, LB Takeo Spikes, CB Terrence McGee, S Donte Whitner.

    Because both teams are helping Vegas out by pulling upsets and back-door covers against heavily bet squads, let me mention the only thing more annoying to people: Terrell Owens. In case you missed it, Michael Irvin conducted an interview with Owens, asking him about his relationship with Bill Parcells and the rest of the Dallas Cowboys. In the beginning of the piece, Owens was talking about Martin Luther King Jr. and how he and the late reverend have experienced similar situations. Now, I’m sitting here trying to think of things King and Owens have in common. I know they’re both human, and even that’s stretching it. I’m not really sure what Owens is. Well, besides a nuisance and a locker-room virus.

    Everyone’s talking about how great the Dolphins are playing right now. What about the Bills? They’re 4-2 since Nov. 5, losing only to the Colts (by one) and the Chargers (by three). J.P. Losman, although he still looks shaky from time to time, has improved tremendously. It seems as though he’s good for one deep touchdown to Lee Evans every single game. That said, it could be difficult for him to pull that off again; the Dolphins, led by defensive MVP candidate Jason Taylor, have accumulated a whopping 43 sacks this year. Buffalo’s offensive line has surrendered 38. Miami also has the sixth-ranked ground defense, so points will be at a premium for the Bills.

    Conversely, Buffalo is 30th versus the run. The starting halfback for the Dolphins – Ronnie Brown may not play – will trample the Bills, setting up play-action opportunities for Joey Harrington, who will need them; Buffalo also has a top-notch pass rush.

    I think the Dolphins are the better team – but the superior squad doesn’t always win. Forget the fact that Buffalo owns Miami; the Dolphins just won their Super Bowl against New England. I think they’ll be flat in frigid Buffalo.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both teams are playing hard, but neither really needs a victory.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    The Bills are not a public team right now. Miami should get the majority of the money.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 53% (31,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
    • History: Bills have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
    • Bills are 14-6 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.
    • Opening Line: Bills -1.
    • Opening Total: 36.
    • Weather: Showers, 53 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 20 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Lee Evans, Marty Booker.
    • Sit Em: Willis McGahee.

    Prediction: Bills 14, Dolphins 10. (Bills -1).
    Correct: Bills 21, Dolphins 0.




    Broncos (7-6) at Cardinals (4-9). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 42½.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Broncos -3½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Broncos -3½.

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.
    Injuries: Broncos: OUT: OT Matt Lepsis (IR), DE Courtney Brown (IR). QUESTIONABLE: TE Stephen Alexander, OT Adam Meadows, CB Darrent Williams. Cardinals: OUT: DE Bert Berry (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Reggie Wells.

    Last week, I mentioned that Jay Cutler’s dad looked like he wanted to throw a paper bag over his head and sneak out of Mile High, given his son’s atrocious performance against Seattle. This week, he looked more like: “Hey, my son isn’t the worst quarterback in the history of the NFL after all! Woohoo! I don’t have to change my name and move away from Denver! High five!”

    To be unfair, Cutler did most of his damage in the third quarter when the Chargers came out of the locker room looking very lackadaisical. Once they became focused, Cutler wasn’t able to do much. Luckily for the rookie, he plays an Arizona defense 234 passing yards per contest. He will, however, have to carry the offense on his shoulders; the Cardinals completely shut down Shaun Alexander last week, so they may be able to do the same against Tatum and Mike Bell.

    Matt Leinart is improving each week, but the greatest surprise has been the fact that Edgerrin James eclipsed the 100-yard barrier the past two games. The Broncos are 14th versus the run, so lightning will not strike thrice. Denver’s secondary is a mess, however. Leinart should be able to lead his offense to at least 24 points.

    Remember I was talking about a huge sucker bet? This is it. Everyone knows the Broncos need a victory to stay alive in the playoff race. Almost every single bettor is pounding them, and the line is just sitting there at three (two-and-a-half at some places). Meanwhile, Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, has the Broncos at -1 -131 (as of Tuesday evening). No one in their right mind would take the Cardinals in a near-pick ‘em situation over a desperate Broncos squad. Well, I guess I’m pretty nutty.


    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    If the Broncos lose this contest, they're almost a lock to miss the playoffs.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    Vegas knows the public is aware that Denver needs a victory. Expect heavy action on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 63% (33,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 81-57 ATS on the road following a road loss (Mike Shanahan 4-8).
    • Weak Arm: Jay Cutler is 0-1 ATS on the road.
    • Broncos are 4-8 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
    • Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Broncos -2½.
    • Opening Total: 41½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Rod Smoth, Javon Walker, Matt Leinart, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin.
    • Sit Em: Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, Edgerrin James.

    Prediction: Cardinals 13, Broncos 10. (Cardinals +3).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Broncos 37, Cardinals 20.




    Eagles (7-6) at Giants (7-6). Line: Giants by 5½. Over-Under: 43½.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Giants -4½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Giants -5.

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: Eagles: OUT: QB Donovan McNabb (IR), DE Jevon Kearse (IR), LS Mike Bartrum. Giants: OUT: WR Amani Toomer (IR), OT Luke Petitgout, DE Michael Strahan, LB LaVar Arrington (IR).

    One of my biggest pet peeves is when guys brag about whom, or how many girls they’re sleeping with. The only thing worse is when they lie about it. I woke up for work Friday morning and turned on the radio. The first thing I heard was handicapper Brandon Lang boasting about how his wife brings other women home – if you know what I mean – when he does well with his picks. I don’t know if he was lying or not, but I didn’t really care. I didn’t want to hear about it. If that wasn’t bad enough, my dog ran into my room five seconds later and peed on the floor. Fantastic.

    Anyway, most of the knowledgeable hosts of this sports-talk station have stated that the Eagles have no shot in this contest. I tend to agree. As I mentioned earlier, Ladell Betts trampled Philadelphia’s pathetic defense. Tiki Barber could approach 200 rushing yards, which will give Eli Manning a plethora of play-action opportunities and favorable downs. The Eagles sacked Manning eight times in Week 2, but Jevon Kearse is no longer in the lineup. Without Kearse, the Giants can focus on keeping Darren Howard and Trent Cole at bay.

    Jeff Garcia has played well thus far, although he’s gone against three sub par defenses (Indianapolis, Carolina and Washington). He will implode sometime down the line, but not here; the Giants cannot stop the pass. Philadelphia should be able to score its fair share of points. Just don’t expect anything out of the running game, as New York is ranked fifth against it. Oh wait, what am I talking about? Andy Reid doesn’t run the ball anyway.

    The Giants are simply the better team. Without much public action going either way, I see no reason not to lay the points.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    It's win or die for both squads.

    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    The Giants are a 6-point favorite for a reason; Jeff Garcia still has his doubters.
  • Percentage of money on NY Giants: 57% (37,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
    • History: Giants have won the last 3 meetings.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 81-57 ATS on the road following a road loss (Andy Reid 6-2).
    • Weak Arm: Jeff Garcia is 2-6 ATS on the road since 2003.
    • Eagles are 38-21 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
    • Eagles are 17-9 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Giants -6.
    • Opening Total: 44.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Brian Westbrook, Donte' Stallworth, Eli Manning, Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey.
    • Sit Em: Eagles Defense.

    Prediction: Giants 24, Eagles 17. (Giants -5).
    Incorrect: Eagles 36, Giants 22.




    Rams (5-8) at Raiders (2-11). Line: Raiders by 2½. Over-Under: 38½.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Rams -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Rams -3.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Rams: OUT: OT Orlando Pace (IR), G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum (IR), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa. QUESTIONABLE: G Adam Timmerman, DE Victor Adeyanju. Raiders: OUT: RB LaMont Jordan (IR), DE Lance Johnstone, LB Grant Irons. DOUBTFUL: WR Jerry Porter. QUESTIONABLE: WR Randy Moss, OT Robert Gallery.

    This week, on the Oakland Raiders Show! Randy Moss finally meets football players as lazy as him. Guest star Marc Bulger will reveal who those players are. So, what will Moss do? Will he befriend them? Will he walk off the field with them? Will he convince Al Davis to sign them? Or will he run them over in his car? Find out this week on the Oakland Raiders Show!

    How bad is St. Louis’ defense? It made Rex Grossman look like a Pro Bowler – and that’s pretty difficult to do. Although the Raiders are stricken with no-talents like Aaron Brooks and malcontents like Randy Moss, they should be able to put up enough points to win; the Rams have surrendered at least 30 points on six occasions since Oct. 1.

    It doesn’t matter whom the Rams are playing – as long as they keep dropping passes, they’ll continue to lose. Excluding last week’s pitiful performance at Cincinnati, Oakland has been pretty solid against the pass, yielding just 155 yards per contest. Steven Jackson will have to get going against the Raiders’ 16th-ranked ground defense.

    Oakland is favored again, but this time the public isn’t dumping cash onto their side. Nearly nine out of every 10 bettors are taking the Rams. If you read what I have to say under the Vegas, you’re aware that people apparently want to have their eyes punctured out.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Who cares? Neither squad is going anywhere. The winner will be the team that shoots itself in the foot less.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    It's like having a choice between getting your eyes punctured out, or all of your fingers cut off. Who wants to bet on either of these teams?
  • Percentage of money on St. Louis: 62% (23,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Rams are 11-26 ATS in road games since 2001.
    • Rams are 4-8 ATS on the road since 2005.
    • Rams are 6-19 ATS on grass since 2001.
    • Raiders are 6-16 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
    • Raiders are 6-14 ATS at home the previous 20 instances.
    • Opening Line: Pick.
    • Opening Total: 38.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Steven Jackson.
    • Sit Em: Randy Moss, Randy Moss' car insurance.

    Prediction: Raiders 17, Rams 13. (Raiders -2½).
    Incorrect: Rams 20, Raiders 0.




    Chiefs (7-6) at Chargers (11-2). Line: Chargers by 9. Over-Under: 46½.
    Sunday, 8:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Chargers -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Chargers -7.

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Kevin Sampson, G Brian Waters, DT John Browning (IR), LB Derrick Johnson. QUESTIONABLE: OT Kyle Turley. Chargers: OUT: WR Malcolm Floyd, OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Keenan McCardell, DE Luis Castillo, LB Shaun Phillips, LB Randall Godfrey.

    I’m not sure who Phil Simms was talking about during the San Diego-Denver game, but he said the following about one of the Chargers: “You can go into a phone booth with him, you can go into an alley with him.” I get the alley reference, but a phone booth? Do people get attacked in phone booths? And if so, how do you go into a phone booth with someone? You can probably go into a phone booth with anyone and be safe because three people can’t fit in one. Hey Phil, what in the world are you talking about? You’re driving me nuts here.

    It’s crucial that the Chiefs establish Larry Johnson early and often; if they don’t, one of those big, bad Chargers will be coming after Trent Green. San Diego has a great front seven, but we saw last week that it doesn’t matter; Larry Johnson compiled 120 yards against the Ravens. However, that still wasn’t enough, as Green was forced into three turnovers. Johnson should be able to have success on the ground again, given that the Chargers surrendered six yards per carry to the Broncos last week. But I’m not sold on the offensive line’s ability to protect Green against San Diego’s monstrous 48-sack pass rush.

    Like Johnson, it’s tough to put the clamps on LaDainian Tomlinson. Kansas City miraculously held him to just 66 rushing yards in the first meeting, but he caught six passes for 72 yards. The reason San Diego lost that contest, 30-27, was because Philip Rivers was making his third road start, and was still a bit shaky. But that’s not the case anymore; in just 14 weeks, Rivers has emerged as one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. The Chiefs will not be able to stop the Chargers.

    San Diego is obviously the better squad, but I think the number is way too high. If you check out their history on my Rivals page, you’ll see that these two teams always play down to the wire. I think that happens once again.

    Friday Morning Note: As you've probably heard, Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt died Wednesday night. Thus, I'm upgrading this to my PICK OF THE MONTH. The last time an owner died, the Giants played their hearts out and won, 36-0. By listening to all the interviews, you can tell that all the players revered him. They will dedicate this contest in his memory. Kansas City wins straight up.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    The Chargers would like the No. 1 seed, but the Chiefs are in a must-win situation. Expect them to fight for their lives -- and to play for Lamar Hunt.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    People will be lining up to bet on what they perceive to be the best team in the NFL. There should be tons of money on San Diego.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 58% (43,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
    • History: Home Team has won 14 of the last 17 meetings.
    • History: Eight of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-29 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
    • Chiefs are 8-12 ATS on the road since 2004.
    • Chargers are 16-8 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Marty Schottenheimer.
    • Philip Rivers is 11-2 as a starter (8-5 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Chargers -9.
    • Opening Total: 47.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 46 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Chargers Defense.
    • Sit Em: Chiefs Defense.

    Prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 17. (Chiefs +9).
    Pick of the Month (2-2).
    Incorrect: Chargers 20, Chiefs 9.




    Bengals (8-5) at Colts (10-3). Line: Colts by 3. Over-Under: 54½.
    Monday, 8:30 ET
    Walter's Game of the Week

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Colts -7½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Colts -6.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), G Bobbie Williams, C Rich Braham, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR). DOUBTFUL: OT Levi Jones. Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), WR Brandon Stokley (IR), TE Dallas Clark, DT Corey Simon (IR), DT Montae Reagor, S Mike Doss (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Joseph Addai, RB Dominic Rhodes, OT Ryan Diem, CB Nick Harper, CB Marlin Jackson, CB Antoine Bethea, S Bob Sanders.

    Here’s my weekly preview of a potential conversation on Monday Night Football: Tirico: Welcome to ESPN’s Monday Night Football, and holy crap! We’re covering a game between two really good teams for a change! Kornheiser: Peyton Manning is a star! Chad Johnson is a star! Marvin Harrison is a star! Carson Palmer is a star! Reggie Wayne is a star! T.J. Whosyourmomma is a star! Theismann: I talked to Marvin Lewis, the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, and he told me he expects the Bengals defense to continue to improve and eventually become a great player like a Lawrence Taylor or a LaDainian Tomlinson. Kornheiser: What? How can a defense become a great player? Aren’t there 14 players on a defense? Theismann: I talked to Marvin Lewis, the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, and he told me he expects the Bengals defense to continue to improve and eventually become a great defense like the 1985 Chicago Bears or the 2000 Baltimore Colts. Kornheiser: That’s not what you just said! You just completely changed what Marvin Lewis allegedly told you! Do you even talk to these people, or do you make stuff up? Tirico: Now, now, guys, let’s be civil here.

    Think there will be points scored in this game? We all saw how atrocious Indianapolis’ defense was last week. Jacksonville didn’t even have to throw the ball! Look for Lewis to give Rudi Johnson enough carries to approach the 200-yard plateau, permitting Carson Palmer to locate Johnson and “Whosyourmomma” downfield. The Colts have registered only 19 sacks this year, so Palmer will have all the time in the world. What happened to Dwight Freeney anyway? Was he abducted by aliens and replaced by Mike Mamula? Why does he have only 2½ sacks? As if Indianapolis needed something else to go wrong with its stop unit.

    The Colts weren’t able to score much last week, but they were going up against Jacksonville. You can’t even compare the defenses the Jaguars and the Bengals have. If you’re one of these people duped into thinking Cincinnati has improved defensively, you’ll quickly learn the truth on Monday night. It’s pretty easy to look good if you go up against Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland. Indianapolis will be able to score just as often as the Bengals.

    For the first time in months, the public isn’t favoring Indianapolis. That leads me to believe that it’s a good time to pounce on them. This line is way too low; two weeks ago it would have been six or seven. But you’re asking the Colts to cover a 3-point spread in a regular-season home game? Count me in.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    The Colts will be looking to bounce back from two consecutive losses. That could be tough against the Bengals, who could be in trouble with a loss.

    The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
    It's tough to say how the public will react to this line; the Colts were blown out last week, but they happened to be a slim 3-point favorite.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 60% (34,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
    • MNF Home Advantage: Monday Night Football home teams are 9-6 ATS this year.
    • Opening Line: Colts -3.
    • Opening Total: 51½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Both Offenses.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Colts 28, Bengals 24. (Colts -3).


    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


    Cowboys: 9-3
    Eagles: 8-5
    Giants: 9-3
    Redskins: 8-4

    Bears: 7-6
    Lions: 9-4
    Packers: 10-2
    Vikings: 6-7

    Buccaneers: 5-7
    Falcons: 6-7
    Panthers: 7-4
    Saints: 5-8

    49ers: 9-4
    Cardinals: 4-9
    Rams: 7-5
    Seahawks: 8-5

    Bills: 8-5
    Dolphins: 8-4
    Jets: 8-5
    Patriots: 8-4

    Bengals: 5-7
    Browns: 7-4
    Ravens: 5-8
    Steelers: 7-6

    Colts: 6-6
    Jaguars: 8-4
    Texans: 10-3
    Titans: 7-5

    Broncos: 3-9
    Chargers: 8-5
    Chiefs: 6-7
    Raiders: 5-7

    Divisional Games: 43-32
    Game Edge: 30-41
    Psychological Edge: 20-17
    Vegas Edge: 11-7
    Trend Edge: 18-21
    Double Edge: 15-13
    Triple Edge: 0-2
    Quadruple Edge: 0-0


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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


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    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 4-6
    Bears: 5-5
    Bucs: 8-2
    49ers: 3-6
    Eagles: 6-4
    Lions: 3-6
    Falcons: 5-5
    Cardinals: 5-5
    Giants: 3-7
    Packers: 7-2
    Panthers: 5-6
    Rams: 5-5
    Redskins: 7-3
    Vikings: 8-2
    Saints: 4-5
    Seahawks: 4-6
    Bills: 4-6
    Bengals: 4-7
    Colts: 5-5
    Broncos: 6-4
    Dolphins: 6-3
    Browns: 5-3
    Jaguars: 5-5
    Chargers: 3-7
    Jets: 6-4
    Ravens: 4-5
    Texans: 5-5
    Chiefs: 7-2
    Patriots: 5-5
    Steelers: 6-5
    Titans: 5-3
    Raiders: 3-7
    Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2014 Season:
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