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NFL Weekly Predictions
Super Bowl XLII



As I wrote in my Live Super Bowl Blog, anyone who thought the Giants didn't have a shot, and the Patriots would win in an easy blowout was completely nuts. New England's defense was exposed by Adam Joshua Feeley and Kyle Boller, and has sucked ever since. I wanted Junior Seau to get a ring, but I was glad to see Michael Strahan finally win one. More importantly, the Giants covered and the game went under. Thanks to everyone who followed my picks and read my incoherent rants all year. I'll be covering the draft and free agency in the spring. Following the draft, I'll be doing detailed season previews of every team. As for picks, I'll keep posting daily college basketball, NBA, NHL, baseball and WNBA selections. NFL picks will be back in August for the 2008 preseason.



New York Giants (13-6) at New England Patriots (18-0)
Line: Patriots by 12. Total: 55.

Walt's Projected Line: Patriots -12.
Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:20 ET - Buy Tickets
at Glendale, Az.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: RB Derrick Ward, TE Jeremy Shockey. PATRIOTS: OUT: LB Rosevelt Colvin.

Wednesday, Jan. 23: The Super Bowl is 11 days away, but because there's only one NFL game left to predict until August, why not write something about it every morning? It's not like I have anything else better to do. I'm not in New York following Tom Brady around like some weird stalker, taking pictures of his feet. Oh, and by the way, Brady's foot was spotted bootless on Tuesday night. More importantly, however, Brady's foot was photographed while on a date with Kerrie Underwood's foot, which was also bootless. Sexy time, very nice.

This is why I hate the Super Bowl. There's way too much hype. Just play the damn game this Sunday and get it over with. I don't want to watch four-hour pre-game shows. I don't want to listen to 140-year-old has-beens performing at halftime. And I certainly don't want to hear about someone's foot for two weeks. Well, at least those foot-fetish porn sites are raking in a lot of dough right now.

Anyway, let's take one last look at how Vegas fared the week before. New England-San Diego action was evenly split, but the books made a killing with the Giants winning straight up. The New York victory made all spread, money-line and teaser bets on the Packers a loser.

My dad, enraged at seeing Favre lose (he likes Favre because he's old), harped, "This game is fixed! The refs made the Packers lose on purpose!" While the officials definitely helped out the Giants, I had to disagree with him. Favre is secretly a choker. Sure, he won a Super Bowl, but he's come up small in every important game since. Think about it - the punt interception against the Eagles; the five picks against the Rams; the inexplicable home losses to Atlanta and Minnesota... Favre is the NFL's Aurora Snow, and it took me way too long to realize it. I feel like a fool. I should have realized Favre would lob 30-yard ducks into triple coverage against the Giants. Well, at least I have some much-needed material next year.

Speaking of material, I'll be back tomorrow with Emmitt quotes! W00t!

Thursday, Jan. 24: The final Emmitt Smith quotes of the year. I think I'm going to cry. If you're upset as well, don't worry - after the Super Bowl, I'm going to compile a list of every single quote Emmitt uttered this year, including some I didn't get a chance to post on the site. I'm going to rank them categorically too. Can't wait.

So anyway, Emmitt's final quotes of the 2007 season. Before I get to them, I'll leave you with what I bet Emmitt said when he looked at this game: "When you look at these spread, you say they is too high because the Patriots quarterback... Tim... uhhh... he is banged-up."

1. "I think it's his self-confidence in himself that make him so confident when it get down into the crunch time." (Commentary: So, in other words, his self-confidence in himself makes him confident. I guess that makes sense. Sure, you're saying the same thing three times, but who's counting?)
2. "They both can return kicks and punt return guys." (Commentary: I taped Sunday NFL Countdown - or NFL Sunday Countdown if you're Keyshawn - because I felt like sleeping in. Who wakes up before noon nowadays? At any rate, I played this quote back 20 times in an attempt to figure out what the hell Emmitt was talking about. I didn't succeed, and making matters worse, my brain completely shut down and I drooled all over my shirt.)
3. "Let's see if he step up big today and play great for the Chargers." (Commentary: I tried to look up if the word "he" can be used as plural. Instead of giving me an answer, Dictionary.com called me an idiot and crashed my computer.)
4. "Giants has too many guys in the secondary banged up." (Commentary: Ahhh, the tricky has-have dilemma. When do you use "has?" When do you use "have?" This has puzzled writers for years.)

I'll be back tomorrow with the Week 21 Look-Alike Pictures.

Friday, Jan. 25: Here are my Week 21 Look-Alike Pictures featuring Carl Winslow and Ron Burgandy. Also, you can still compete against me and others by picking football games at the Picking Forum. You'll be able to pick every game starting Wednesday afternoon, and you can post comments for each contest as well. No prizes, but you do get bragging rights.

As a bonus link, check this out. Anyone who played the old-school Nintendo games will enjoy this.

I'll be back tomorrow and actually talk about this game for just a bit.

Saturday, Jan. 26: One thing I really don't get is why everyone, especially in the city of Philadelphia, is rooting for the Giants. Personally, I want to see history. And because the NFL is a copycat league, a 19-0 New England finish would force other general managers to be more aggressive in free agency. Plus, how can Eagles fans cheer for the Giants? You don't root for your rival. Period.

It's pretty embarrassing actually that people are harboring ill will toward the Patriots just because they "cheated." As I wrote in a column I published on this site in September, I found nothing wrong with Bill Belichick's camera tactics. He was doing everything in his power to win without hurting anyone. If anything, I admire Belichick for risking his reputation just to have a competitive edge. And he's not the only one who does it - Mike Holmgren and Sean Payton admitted later that week that they steal signals as well. Every coach "cheats." Belichick just got caught. If I were Roger Goodell, I would have fined the Patriots $50,000. That's it. The fact that New England was stripped of a first-round pick is a disgrace.

I'll talk about the line and action on this game tomorrow.

Sunday, Jan. 27: As of Sunday afternoon, 85 percent of the money in Vegas is on the Giants. This really confuses me because everyone I've talked to in person thinks the Patriots are going to win in a blowout. When I told my dad it wouldn't surprise me if this game were close, he looked at me as if I showed up to his house with Sally Struthers as my new girlfriend. "New England's going to blow them out!" he yelled at the top of his lungs.

I've had about 50 people asking me whom I like in the Super Bowl the past few days. Only three or four of them thought the Giants stood a chance. Everyone else called for a Patriots slaughter. My friend Chris said, "The Patriots are going to score every time, while their defense is going to shut Eli Manning down." So New England has a great defense all of a sudden? How did that happen?

But anyway, the line has dropped from 14 to 11.5 in some places. Curiously, the spread is still 12.5 at Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook on the Web. That should tell you what the right side is. I'm not saying I'm picking the Giants to cover for sure (I'll get to that in a few days), but laying double digits with a squad that has only covered once Nov. 18 seems pretty ridiculous.

I'll delve more into the Patriots' covering woes tomorrow.

Tuesday, Jan. 29: Earlier this season, the Patriots were a covering machine. They beat the number the first eight weeks of the season. I was definitely enjoying it because I picked them blindly every single time. During that stretch, New England averaged 41 points and surrendered just 15.9 per game. The team looked unstoppable, while the oddsmakers were crapping their pants, setting ridiculous lines, hoping the public would take the other side.

But then something happened. The Patriots stopped covering and blowing other squads out. In fact, the only time they beat the spread since Nov. 18 was a 34-13 victory against Pittsburgh, which featured one of the worst gameplans I've ever seen by a head coach (and in the wake of how Mike Tomlin botched the playoff game, I can't say I'm surprised). In the Patriots' past eight contests, they've averaged 31.2 (still a lot, but 10 points lower than before) and yielded 18.6.

So, why isn't New England covering? I've come up with three strong possibilities, with the latter being the most likely. First, the Patriots may have gotten complacent. Clobbering the opposition on a weekly basis, perhaps they got bored. Thus, they coasted against the Eagles, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Giants, doing the bare minimum to win. With a week off, they had trouble flicking the On switch against two quality opponents in the playoffs.

Second, the cold weather may have affected New England's aerial attack. Notice how the Patriots were more potent in September and October. Because they throw the ball a ton, they could be more suited for warmer climates. While this is true, I don't believe this is why New England has "struggled."

And finally, there's a definite possibility that the Patriots don't have the horses on defense. While they've surrendered just 18.6 points per game, their pass defense allowed 336 yards to Adam Joshua Feeley; 210 to Kyle Boller; 237 to Eli Manning; 270 to David Garrard; and 207 to a hobbled Philip Rivers. Not exactly undefeated material.

New England's back seven is old. The linebackers are past their prime, Rodney Harrison is a dinosaur and the cornerbacking corps lacks depth. They were fine earlier in the year, but the weekly grind has finally gotten to them. That's why they can't stop the pass. Opposing teams are able to convert third downs against them, keeping their drives alive and Tom Brady off the field.

I'll discuss whether the Giants can once again take advantage of New England's secondary tomorrow.

Wednesday, Jan. 30: I kind of answered whether Eli Manning could score against the Patriots' defense yesterday. I don't see why he wouldn't be able to. Manning has been extremely impressive in the playoffs, proving his doubters (myself included) wrong in the process. Manning has thrown four touchdowns, completed 62.4 percent of his passes and won on the road an NFL record 10 straight times. More importantly, he has no picks or fumbles in the postseason.

Manning was 22-of-32 for 251 yards, four touchdowns and an interception versus New England in Week 17. As I wrote yesterday, the Patriots' secondary is suspect and their linebackers are old. Manning has been great converting third downs this postseason, thanks to Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, an emerging Kevin Boss and an outstanding offensive line. I don't think the Patriots will be able to stop New York's offense.

The question now is whether or not the Giants can force Tom Brady into a turnover or two. I think it's possible; the Patriots haven't been sharp recently. Brady had a terrible AFC Championship, and Randy Moss has disappeared since allegedly hitting a woman. I'm not saying New England won't score; I just think New York can disrupt the Patriots just enough to give themselves a fighting chance.

In other words, the Giants can definitely win. Will they? I don't think so. I can't go against a three-time champion. Eli Manning over Tom Brady? I think our planet would explode if that happened. I don't want our world to die.

New York keeps this game close. In fact, they have the lead in the fourth quarter. Brady, doing what he became famous for (before dating 5,000 supermodels at once) engineers a late comeback, capped off by a 36-yard Adam Vinati... Stephen Gostkowski field goal.

If I find some more Emmitt quotes, I'll post them tomorrow.

Thursday, Jan. 31: BREAKING NEWS: 610 WIP, a sports-talk radio station in Philadelphia, is reporting that former Cowboys receiver and ESPN analyst Michael Irvin is an idiot.

There has always been speculation that Irvin's brain is the size of a peanut. 610 WIP confirmed it with two of Irvin's quotes.

On Monday, Irvin was asked about Donovan McNabb's plea for more play-makers. Irvin criticized McNabb, calling it a mistake: "Donovan has been heard a few times over the last few years. If I'm Donovan, I don't make that statement."

Nothing wrong there - just a former player issuing his opinion on a current one. However, two days later, Irvin again was asked about McNabb on the Howard Eskin Show.

"I think Donovan made a great statement when he said he needed more play-makers."

Huh? Three days ago Irvin thought McNabb's comments were a mistake, and now he believes they were just? Some are speculating that Irvin may have been under the influence in at least one of those interviews. While I believe that's a strong possibility, my explanation is that Irvin is simply mentally challenged and has no clue what he's saying. We have all the evidence we need during his years on Sunday NFL Countdown (or NFL Sunday Countdown if you're Keyshawn Johnson.)

Speaking of former great (and illiterate) Cowboys, Emmitt Smith shared his thoughts on the Patriots' Super Bowl chances:

"...Go to Arizona, sharp as a whistle, and do some finishing touches, so we can go down in the Super Bowl and play our best football of the whole entire season."

(Commentary: Yeah, watch out for those sharp whistles - they can be really pointy.)

Later, Emmitt gave the Giants advice on how to stop Randy Moss.

"The Giants secondary really have to be physical with this guy."

(Commentary: Great "analysts" as always, though I have to say I'm disappointed Emmitt didn't use this week off to figure out the difference between have and has.)

I'll have a page of Emmitt's greatest quotes posted soon. For now, check out this video of Emmitt's Smith's grammar blunders.

Saturday, Feb. 2: Twenty-two hours till kickoff and I still like the Giants. New England's secondary has no depth and the linebackers are slow. I really don't see why Eli Manning can't throw all over the Patriots. If Kyle Boller and Adam Joshua Feeley can do it, Manning should be able to a second time. I still don't like that Pinnacle has the line at 12.5, but I'm pretty encouraged that the percentage of cash on New York has dropped from 80-something to 74.

So, Patriots 27, Giants 24, it is. It wouldn't even surprise me if New York won, but I just can't go against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in a big game. My MVP is Wes Welker. Check out my props below.

Sunday, Feb. 3: Action down to 69 percent on the Giants. Nice. Look for a link to my live Super Bowl blog on my home page.


The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
For the second game in a row, there's a bit of a letdown on New England's side. I think they played flat because the Chargers beat the archrival Colts, and I'm going to guess they'll feel the same way as Eli Manning upset Brett Favre.


The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
Do people believe in the Giants? I'm not sure whom the public is going to back.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 69% (360,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Tom Brady is 99-26 as a starter (76-47 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 14-2 in the playoffs (8-8 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -14.
  • Opening Total: 55.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 24
    Giants +12 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 55 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Giants 17, Patriots 14.


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Eli Manning - Total Passing Yards: Over 225.5 -120 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Will Plaxico Burress score a touchdown? Yes +100 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Jabar Gaffney - Total Receiving Yards: Over 29.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
  • MVP: Wes Welker 5/1 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$150
  • Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$150
  • Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units) -- Correct; +$150
  • Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units) -- Whoops!; -$240
  • Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm expecting a big year from him. (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200



    Second-Half Bets
    Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Play to be posted here.



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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 3-5
    Bears: 3-5
    Bucs: 5-2
    49ers: 3-3
    Eagles: 4-3
    Lions: 2-5
    Falcons: 3-5
    Cardinals: 3-4
    Giants: 2-5
    Packers: 5-2
    Panthers: 2-6
    Rams: 3-4
    Redskins: 5-3
    Vikings: 6-2
    Saints: 3-3
    Seahawks: 3-4
    Bills: 3-5
    Bengals: 2-6
    Colts: 4-4
    Broncos: 4-3
    Dolphins: 5-1
    Browns: 3-2
    Jaguars: 3-5
    Chargers: 2-6
    Jets: 4-4
    Ravens: 2-5
    Texans: 5-3
    Chiefs: 4-2
    Patriots: 4-4
    Steelers: 3-5
    Titans: 4-3
    Raiders: 3-4
    Divisional: 13-18 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 7-9 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 7-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 18-16 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 13-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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