Redskins (11-6) at Seahawks (13-3). Line: Seahawks by 9. Over-Under: 41.
Saturday, 4:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 18 Games): Seahawks by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 18 Games): Seahawks by 11.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Redskins: OUT: WR David Patten, DE Renaldo Wynn, DT Brandon Noble. QUESTIONABLE: RB Clinton Portis*, WR James Thrash, CB Shawn Springs, S Matt Bowen. Seahawks: OUT: OLB Jamie Sharper, S Ken Hamlin. QUESTIONABLE: WR Darrell Jackson, OT Walter Jones*, DT Chuck Darby, OLB D.D. Lewis, CB Marcus Trufant.

Washington set a record for futility, as it became the team that gained the least yardage (136) in a playoff victory. If the Redskins think they can do that against Seattle and win, they might as well not show up.

Joe Gibbs' game plan is pretty predictable. He will attempt to give Clinton Portis as many carries as possible, which eventually sets up play-action opportunities for Mark Brunell. Gibbs also calls short patterns for Santana Moss, who is capable of dodging a multitude of defenders with his dynamic agility. This method did not work against Tampa Bay, and it will not work against Seattle. One of the reasons why the Seahawks are 13-3 is their new-found ability to stop the run. In fact, Seattle is ranked fourth against opposing ground attacks. The banged-up Portis will often be stuffed in the backfield, exposing Brunell to a plethora of long-yardage situations. The Seahawks registered 50 sacks during the regular season, so don't be shocked if Brunell is taken down at least four times on Saturday afternoon.

Washington did a commendable job of putting the clamps on Cadillac Williams in its playoff victory last weekend. However, you cannot compare Cadillac with Shaun Alexander, the NFL MVP. Alexander will not dance around and look for holes. Instead, he will follow his Pro Bowl linemen, Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson. The Redskins are ranked 17th against the run, so Alexander should be able to eclipse the 100-yard plateau. With Washington's focus placed on Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck should have an easy time throwing the ball to his targets.

The Seahawks have not won a playoff game since 1984. That will change on Saturday afternoon -- and it will be apparent by halftime. There is no way this contest will be close.


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Playoff Bye Bonus: Teams with a playoff bye are 27-17 ATS the following week since 1993.
  • Third Road Alert: Teams in their third consecutive road game are 7-13 ATS since 2000.
  • Redskins are 2-9 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -8 (open) to Seahawks -9 to Seahawks -9.
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Showers, 46 degrees. Light wind, 6 mph.

Prediction: Seahawks by 27. (Seahawks -9). Double Money Pick. Under.




Patriots (11-6) at Broncos (13-3). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 43.
Saturday, 8:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 18 Games): Patriots by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 18 Games): Patriots by 3.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Patriots: OUT: OT Matt Light, C Dan Koppen, CB Randall Gay, CB Tyrone Poole, S Rodney Harrison. QUESTIONABLE: RB Heath Evans, ILB Tedy Bruschi*, KR Bethel Johnson. Broncos: OUT: OT Dwayne Carswell. QUESTIONABLE: RB Mike Anderson*, DE Courtney Brown, MLB Al Wilson*, CB Darrent Williams.

This line shocked me when I first saw it. The Broncos are favored? The same Broncos who lose in the first round of the playoffs every year? The same Broncos who have Jake Plummer at quarterback? This seems too unfair and way too easy to pick. Plummer vs. Tom Brady. A no-brainer, right?

Denver may have beaten New England on Oct. 16, 28-20, but the Patriots were missing Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. They had to run the ball with Patrick Pass and Amos Zereoue. With Dillon and Faulk back, New England will have a little more success on the ground. However, defeating the Broncos is up to Brady, who threw for 299 yards and a touchdown when the two teams clashed about three months ago. The Broncos' weakness on defense is their inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks; they accumulated only 28 during the regular season, including zero against the Patriots. Now that Denver has to worry about Dillon running the ball and Faulk catching passes out of the backfield, Brady should have an easier time shredding the Broncos' defense.

Watch out, Denver. The Jake Plummer implosion is coming. There is a reason why Plummer is only 1-3 in the playoffs: When his team cannot run the ball, he cannot utilize his patented play-action bootlegs. Plummer is confined to the pocket, which leads to interceptions and fumbles. When the two teams met in October, Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson combined for 171 rushing yards. That said, the Broncos might not even get half of that this time around. Excluding the Patriots' season finale -- the starters were resting for three quarters -- New England has not surrendered more than 30 rushing yards to any starting running back since Nov. 27. Some of the runners they have stopped have been Fred Taylor, Cadillac Williams and Willis McGahee. The reason for New England's resurgence is the return of Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour and Troy Brown. Plummer will throw at least three interceptions on Saturday night.

Let me say it again: Brady vs. Plummer. A 10-0 playoff record vs. a 1-3 mark. This seems too easy.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Playoff Bye Bonus: Teams with a playoff bye are 27-17 ATS the following week since 1993.
  • Patriots are 8-4 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 68-19 as a starter (56-30 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 10-0 in the playoffs (6-4 ATS).
  • Broncos are 8-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Jake Plummer is 1-3 ATS in the playoffs.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 44 to 43.
  • Weather: Clear, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Prediction: Patriots by 11. (Patriots +3). Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




Steelers (12-5) at Colts (14-2). Line: Colts by 10. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 18 Games): Colts by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 18 Games): Colts by 9.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Steelers: DOUBTFUL: KR Quincy Morgan. Colts: OUT: OT Ryan Diem. QUESTIONABLE: WR Brandon Stokley, DE Robert Mathis, DT Corey Simon, DT Montae Reagor, OLB Cato June, S Bob Sanders*.

One injury changed everything. If Carson Palmer didn't get hurt in Sunday's game, the Colts would be hosting the Patriots, not the Steelers. The other AFC game would be the Broncos versus the Bengals.

When the Steelers clashed with the Colts in November, I called Pittsburgh's first nine plays. That's because the Steelers are extremely predictable: They usually run the ball with Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, unless they absolutely have to throw it downfield. Strictly giving Parker and Bettis loads of carries will not work against Indianapolis; the two combined for just 52 yards on 18 carries, as the Colts defeated the Steelers, 26-7. To beat the Colts, a team must fire the ball downfield, which exposes Indianapolis' awful cornerbacks. Just check the tapes of the Chargers game. Drew Brees exposed Nick Harper and Jason David for the frauds they are. I don't think Ben Roethlisberger can win a playoff contest on his own; the second-year star needs a consistent ground attack to be effective. If and when Roethlisberger is stuck in long-yardage situations, he may throw interceptions. He threw two picks when he lost to the Colts.

Peyton Manning threw an 80-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison less than three minutes into the game when these two teams met on Nov. 28. That could happen again. Pittsburgh has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Other than Troy Polamalu, the Steelers don't have an ounce of talent at defensive back, which is why I suggested that they should sign Ty Law about nine months ago. They didn't, and now they are going to pay. The Steelers have two choices: They can either blitz, which will lead to a few Manning to Harrison or Reggie Wayne touchdown bombs; or they can sit back, permitting Edgerrin James to continuously bulldoze their front seven. James tallied 124 yards on 29 carries in the earlier meeting.

The Steelers don't have the defensive talent to stick with Indianapolis. The only thing that may save them is the fact that the Colts have rested their starters for about a month. That's the only reason this is not a Money Pick.

Saturday Night Update: After thinking about it some more, the Colts will definitely win and cover. I'm making this a Money Pick. There is no way Pittsburgh's secondary can cover the Indy wide outs.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Playoff Bye Bonus: Teams with a playoff bye are 27-17 ATS the following week since 1993.
  • Line Movement: Colts -9 (open) to Colts -9 to Colts -10.
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 47.
  • Weather: Dome.

Prediction: Colts by 20. (Colts -10). Money Pick. Over.




Panthers (12-5) at Bears (11-5). Line: Bears by 3. Over-Under: 30.
Sunday, 4:30 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 18 Games): Bears by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 18 Games): Bears by 2.

The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: RB Stephen Davis, DT Kris Jenkins. Bears: OUT: WR Mark Bradley. QUESTIONABLE: OLB Hunter Hillenmeyer, CB Charles Tillman*, CB Jerry Azumah, S Mike Brown*.

Was Carolina's 23-0 victory over the Giants a product of John Fox's excellent coaching or the Giants' terrible performance? We will find out on Sunday, as the Panthers will be confronted with their greatest challenge this season -- avenging a 13-3 loss to the Bears.

I had to review the tapes of the Nov. 20 matchup to make sure that the Panthers offense actually showed up to the game. DeShaun Foster ran for just 41 yards, while Jake Delhomme was sacked eight times by Chicago's defensive line. When Sunday's contest begins, Carolina will immediately be reminded that they are not playing the soft Giants. The Bears will once again put the clamps on Foster and apply heavy pressure on Delhomme, who will probably be good for three turnovers, including a pick-six. One bright spot for the Panthers' offense in the 13-3 beatdown was Steve Smith, who inexplicably caught 14 passes for 169 yards. Even though Smith is one of the elite receivers in the NFL, a repeat performance like that might be too much to ask. Keep in mind that Carolina scored just three points despite that massive yardage.

Ten of Chicago's 13 points were off Delhomme turnovers. In fact, two of the Bears' three scoring drives were less than nine yards. Although Chicago will probably find itself on a short field on more than one occasion, there is hope that the team will be able to conduct lengthier offensive sequences. Rex Grossman, who has looked extremely sharp in his limited action, will be replacing Kyle Orton, who made the start on Nov. 20. Orton was just 15-of-26 for 136 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Unlike Eli Manning, Grossman will be well protected; the Bears have yielded just 31 sacks this year. The Bears will get a slightly better performance from their offense this time around.

Chicago should be able to win this contest. However, there are two reasons why I am not placing a Money Pick tag on this contest: Fox's incredible playoff coaching and the fact that Grossman is making his first postseason appearance.


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Playoff Bye Bonus: Teams with a playoff bye are 27-17 ATS the following week since 1993.
  • Third Road Alert: Teams in their third consecutive road game are 7-13 ATS since 2000.
  • Panthers are 19-9 ATS as an underdog the previous 28 instances.
  • John Fox is 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 31 (open) to 30 to 30 to 30.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Prediction: Bears by 6. (Bears -3). Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 5-9
Eagles: 8-8
Giants: 9-6
Redskins: 8-8

Bears: 9-6
Lions: 10-5
Packers: 9-6
Vikings: 10-6

Buccaneers: 9-7
Falcons: 9-6
Panthers: 12-3
Saints: 9-6

49ers: 4-12
Cardinals: 6-9
Rams: 8-8
Seahawks: 10-6

Bills: 8-7
Dolphins: 5-11
Jets: 10-6
Patriots: 9-8

Bengals: 12-5
Browns: 10-6
Ravens: 8-8
Steelers: 8-9

Colts: 11-5
Jaguars: 6-11
Texans: 8-8
Titans: 10-6

Broncos: 6-9
Chargers: 8-7
Chiefs: 7-7
Raiders: 12-3

Divisional Games: 47-44
Trend Edge: 33-44
Game Edge: 40-34
Game & Trend Edge: 6-8


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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