Browns (1-3) at Panthers (2-2). Line: Panthers by 8. Over-Under: 37½.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Panthers -9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Panthers -9.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim. QUESTIONABLE: RB Reuben Droughns*, WR Joe Jurevicius, TE Kellen Winslow Jr., DE Orpheus Roye, DE Nick Eason, LB Willie McGinest, CB Gary Baxter, CB Leigh Bodden, S Brian Russell. Panthers: OUT: OT Travelle Wharton (IR), LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: C Justin Hartwig, S Shaun Williams.

I want to take a moment and complain about some of the things that transpired last week. Why did Charlie Frye have to throw a late interception inside the red zone, when all the Browns needed was a field goal to cover? How did the Panthers surrender an 80-yard touchdown cover while playing prevent defense? Why did the Indianapolis defender who recovered the Jets’ lateral at the end of the game trip over an invisible bookie? And why did the Lions have to surrender a key two-point conversion to St. Louis after blowing a big lead? I went 7-6-1 last week despite all of that. I’ll pat myself on the back now.

As for this contest, there is no doubt that Carolina is the better team. The Browns are ranked 31st against the run, so DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams should be able to combine for more than 150 yards on the ground. That in turn will set up play-action opportunities for Jake Delhomme. Steve Smith will also have a big game; he caught 10 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown last week against New Orleans.

Cleveland’s offense will sputter. The Panthers’ defense is one of the stronger units in the league, as it restricted the Saints to just 10 points until that aforementioned, unbelievable fluke touchdown by Drew Brees. Charlie Frye will struggle in a hostile environment, so look for Carolina to pick off a few passes.

That said, I’m going with the Browns. You may ask, “But I thought you just implied that Carolina is a lot better than Cleveland?” You’re right – it is. But, that’s why they are favored by nine. The Panthers are coming off a tough, divisional win, and have Baltimore, Cincinnati and Dallas after the Browns. There is no way they give 100-percent effort in this matchup.


The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

Carolina is out of desperation mode now that it has improved to 2-2, meaning this is not a must-win situation. Check out whom the Panthers battle the following three weeks: undefeated Baltimore, Cincinnati and Dallas. This is the definition of a Breather Game. Why would Carolina even show up to this contest?

The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Hello, Bye: Underdogs of 6½ or more are 16-7 ATS a week before their bye since 2002 (Romeo Crennel 1-0).
  • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 62-45 ATS on the road following a road win. (Romeo Crennel 2-0 regardless).
  • Weak Arm: Charlie Frye is 2-1 ATS on the road.
  • Panthers are 8-17 ATS as a home favorite of 3½ or more since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -9.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Showers, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: DeShaun Foster, Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, Panthers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Browns Offense.

Prediction: Panthers 16, Browns 13. (Browns +8).
Double Money Pick.
Push: Panthers 20, Browns 12.




Bills (2-2) at Bears (4-0). Line: Bears by 10. Over-Under: 34½.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Bears -8½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Bears -10.

The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Bills: OUT: S Troy Vincent (IR). DOUBTFUL: G Chris Villarrial. QUESTIONABLE: TE Robert Royal, LB Takeo Spikes, S Matt Bowen. Bears: OUT: DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Mark Bradley, TE Desmond Clark, DE Adewale Ogunleye.

The most surprising result of Week 4, in my opinion, was the way Buffalo manhandled Minnesota in a 17-12 victory. After losing to the Jets at home, I gave up on the Bills, labeling them a cellar-dweller that had no shot to make the playoffs. My bad.

That said, I’ll be going against them yet again this week. My reasoning is simple: I don’t have confidence in J.P. Losman to go on the road and be competitive against a dominant defense. Sure, Losman played the Patriots close and defeated the Dolphins, but the former was not focused because of the Deion Branch situation, while the latter is now known to be one of the worst squads in the NFL. Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who is playing out of his mind, will give the Bills severe problems up the middle, nullifying anything Willis McGahee attempts to muster on the ground. Losman, consequently, will be forced into a plethora of long-yardage situations. We all saw what happened to Matt Hasselbeck. I’ll be shocked if Losman doesn’t turn in an even worse performance.

Can Buffalo’s defense keep this contest close? Maybe at first, but things could fall apartiof the team’s offense keeps going three-and-out. The Bills restricted Chester Taylor to 23 yards on 10 carries last week, so don’t expect much from Thomas Jones. Buffalo’s secondary is also superior to Seattle’s, as it has yielded just 194 passing yards per game this season. Rex Grossman won’t torch Buffalo like he did against the Seahawks, but he should still have some success moving the chains. Besides Donovan McNabb, is there a quarterback in the NFC playing better than Grossman right now?

Chicago’s defense should be able to score once or twice, securing a cover in the process. However, check out my record in Bills games at the bottom of this page. You may want to go against me in this spot.


The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Bills clearly need a victory more than Chicago, who is coming off a huge Sunday night win. But then again, I wouldn't call this a must-win for Buffalo.

The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Bears -11.
  • Opening Total: 34.
  • Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Mild wind: 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Muhsin Muhammad, Bears Defense.
  • Sit Em: J.P. Losman, Willis McGahee.

Prediction: Bears 24, Bills 6. (Bears -10).
Correct: Bears 40, Bills 7.




Rams (3-1) at Packers (1-3). Line: Rams by 3. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Packers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Packers -1.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Rams: OUT: G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum* (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Orlando Pace. Packers: OUT: OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Robert Ferguson. DOUBTFUL: WR Robert Ferguson, LB Abdul Hodge. QUESTIONABLE: RB Ahman Green*, WR Donald Driver*, LB Ben Taylor.

The Rams are kind of like Wake Forest in college football. Both have outstanding records – the Demon Deacons are 5-0 – yet everyone knows that both squads aren’t really going anywhere. St. Louis beat Detroit, Arizona and the Broncos, who were looking ahead. Their loss was at San Francisco. That’s clearly not that impressive.

It’s no surprise that the Rams are ranked 30th against the run; they are always near the bottom of the league in that category. Ahman Green and Vernand Morency will shred St. Louis’ pathetic front seven, setting up play-action opportunities for a determined Brett Favre, who will look to rebound from a Monday night blowout. The Rams are averaging less than two sacks per game, meaning Favre should have ample time to locate Donald Driver and Greg Jennings downfield.

Scott Linehan has transformed St. Louis into a ball-control team, which actually doesn’t bode well for them in this situation. While Green Bay’s secondary is atrocious, its front seven is yielding only 3.5 yards per carry. Steven Jackson won’t see many running lanes, which will make life difficult for Marc Bulger; the Packers are averaging three sacks per contest.

Given that the Rams could be looking forward to their battle with Seattle, I like Green Bay in this spot.


The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
The Packers, coming off a Monday night thrashing, definitely need a win more than the Rams, who will be looking ahead to next week's matchup against archrival Seattle.

The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Post-Monday Night Misery: All teams are 9-21 ATS after a 17+ loss on MNF since 1999.
  • Rams are 10-24 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Rams are 3-6 ATS on the road since 2005.
  • Rams are 6-17 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Packers are 19-9 ATS after Monday Night Football in the previous 28 instances.
  • Opening Line: Rams -4.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Mild wind: 14 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings.
  • Sit Em: Steven Jackson, Rams Defense.

Prediction: Packers 34, Rams 20 (Packers +3).
Money Pick.
Push: Rams 23, Packers 20.




Titans (0-4) at Colts (4-0). Line: Colts by 18½. Over-Under: 48.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Colts -17.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Colts -18.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Titans: OUT: WR David Givens, TE Erron Kinney, G Zach Piller, DE Antwan Odom, DT Albert Haynesworth (SUSP), DT Rien Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Drew Bennett*. Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), DT Corey Simon.

When a winless team battles an undefeated squad, I usually take the former – but not always. This will be an exception.

If Vince Young threw two interceptions and fumbled twice at home, how will he possibly fare any better in an extremely loud RCA Dome? The Titans may find some running lanes against one of the league’s worst rush defenses, but when they’re down 24-0 in the second quarter, they won’t be able to establish a ground attack on a consistent basis.

If Tennessee’s atrocious secondary couldn’t cover Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn – the two receivers combined for 10 catches, 142 yards and two touchdowns – how will it possibly cover Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark? Yeah, I know, they won’t.

Why would Indianapolis even show up to this game? Just read the quote I have in the psychology section. This has blowout written all over it.


The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
Like last week, the Titans need a win much more than their opponent, but they don't have the talent to get it done against an upper-echelon foe. Tennessee probably knows it has no shot in the RCA Dome. Will Indianapolis be flat after a close road victory? Check out this Tony Dungy quote, regarding last week's penalty-laden tight contest against the Jets:

"We can't let that happen again. And we won't."

The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • History: Colts have won the last 6 meetings (last four by a 23.5 ppg).
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 35-23 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Jeff Fisher 0-3 ATS).
  • Hello, Bye: Favorites of 6½ or more are 21-1 ATS a week before their bye since 2002 (Tony Dungy 3-0).
  • Weak Arm: Vince Young is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Statfox Trend: COLTS are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 15-30 ATS in that situation since 2000; Tony Dungy 2-3).
  • Zero Trend: 0-4 teams are 5-3 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Colts -19.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Colts Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Titans Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Colts 44, Titans 7. (Colts -18½).
Double Money Pick.
Survivor Pick (4-0).
Incorrect: Colts 14, Titans 13.




Lions (0-4) at Vikings (2-2). Line: Vikings by 6½. Over-Under: 40½.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Vikings -7½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Vikings -7.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), S Kenoy Kennedy, S Idrees Bashir. Vikings: OUT: DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). QUESTIONABLE: TE Jermaine Wiggins*, LB Ben Leber, CB Antoine Winfield, S Darren Sharper.

Looking at the scores of each contest Minnesota has played so far this season, a 6-point spread doesn’t make any sense. Both of the team’s victories came by three points. The two losses were by three and five. But consider this: The Vikings have played Washington, Carolina, Chicago and Buffalo thus far. The Lions must seem like a breath of fresh air to them.

Detroit is surprisingly ranked sixth against the run, but that doesn’t mean the Vikings won’t be able to score; in fact, I can’t foresee Minnesota having trouble moving the chains. The Lions have surrendered a mind-boggling 282 passing yards per game, meaning Brad Johnson shouldn’t have a problem locating Troy Williamson, Travis Taylor and Jermaine Wiggins downfield. Johnson will also have as much time as he wants in the pocket; Detroit has mustered only six sacks this season.

Although the Vikings have registered only seven sacks themselves, they were able to generate tons of pressure up the middle against Chicago. Minnesota’s defensive line should be able to repeat that performance, given that Jon Kitna has gone down 14 times in only four games. The Vikings are also ranked seventh against the run, so Kevin Jones won’t be able to get going.

If Minnesota were coming off a victory at Buffalo, I would consider siding with the Lions. However, I love backing the better home team looking for a win following back-to-back losses.


The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
At 0-4, the Lions will be playing hard for a win. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota is coming off back-to-back losses, and needs a victory to keep pace with 4-0 Chicago.

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • History: Vikings have won 13 of the last 14 meetings.
  • Hello, Bye: Favorites of 6½ or more are 21-1 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 67-46 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Vikings are 8-2 ATS at home since 2005.
  • Zero Trend: 0-4 teams are 5-3 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -6½.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Troy Williamson, Jermaine Wiggins, Vikings Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kevin Jones, Lions Defense.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Lions 13. (Vikings -6½).
Money Pick.
Correct: Vikings 26, Lions 17.




Dolphins (1-3) at Patriots (3-1). Line: Patriots by 10. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Patriots -6½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Patriots -7.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), CB Will Poole (IR). QUESTIONABLE: G Jeno James. Patriots: OUT: S Mel Mitchell. QUESTIONABLE: WR Chad Jackson, TE Daniel Graham, CB Ellis Hobbs, S Eugene Wilson.

Did anyone see the stat CBS was showing throughout the entire Bengals-Patriots game? It was something like: “New England hasn’t lost back-to-back contests since 1492… B.C.” I should have went with my gut instinct and made them a Double Money Pick last week. It’ll be a long time before Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are 6-point underdogs again.

Brady and his coupon-clipping receiving corps should once again be an unstoppable force. Miami hasn’t surrendered more than 17 points since Week 1, but that’s not that impressive, considering it played Buffalo, Tennessee and Houston since losing to Pittsburgh. And considering that the Dolphins surrendered 265 passing yards to Kerry Collins in a tight 13-10 affair, New England should be able to move the chains the entire afternoon.

Last week, I picked up the Texans defense in most of my fantasy leagues, just because they were going against Daunte Culpepper. It’s astonishing that Culpepper is horrible, he made Houston look good. This season, he has thrown three interceptions, fumbled thrice, and has been sacked a whopping 21 times. The Patriots forced Carson Palmer into two fumbles, making the All Pro quarterback look like an average NFL signal caller. I can’t wait to see what they do to Culpepper.

Since Miami always seems to give New England problems, my first instinct was to take the points with the visitor. But then I remembered how horrible Culpepper has been. Maybe we’ll even get to see Joey Harrington on Sunday.


The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
The Dolphins definitely need this one more than the Patriots, but I don't think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going to roll over for a hated divisional rival.

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 36-23 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
  • Hello, Bye: Favorites of 6½ or more are 21-1 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 67-46 ATS on the road following a road loss (Nick Saban 1-1).
  • Patriots are 30-18 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 18-7 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 70-21 as a starter (57-33 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -9½.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chris Chambers, Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, Doug Gabriel, Ben Watson, Patrtios Defense.
  • Sit Em: Daunte Culpepper, Dolphins Defense.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 17. (Patriots -10).
Push: Patriots 20, Dolphins 10.




Buccaneers (0-3) at Saints (3-1). Line: Saints by 6½. Over-Under: 35.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Saints -10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Saints -10.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms. QUESTIONABLE: G Davin Joseph, LB Ryan Nece, CB Brian Kelly. Saints: OUT: FB Mike Karney, G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), S Bryan Scott, P Mitch Berger (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Devery Henderson.

Is it just me, or does this seem too easy? The upstart Saints are only 6-point favorites over a team playing on the road without its starting quarterback? Am I losing my mind?

Bruce Gradkowski is probably asking himself why he has to make his first start on the road in front of a raucous crowd just happy to see their Saints playing at home. I’ll be awaiting the usual from a rookie signal caller in a hostile environment: plenty of false starts, fumbles, sacks, interceptions and bad throws. New Orleans will load up against Cadillac Williams, forcing Gradkowski to throw. That’s exactly what Jon Gruden doesn’t want.

In my season previews, I’ve been mentioning my concern for Tampa Bay’s aging defense for the past three years. Six starters – Greg Spires, Simeon Rice, Shelton Quarles, Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly – are all over the age of 30. The first four are at least 32 years old. The unit as a whole has simply looked tired and sluggish the first three weeks of the season, and I’m not sure how it will keep up with New Orleans’ improved scoring attack. Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn and Marques Colson will prove to be too much.

Like I said, this feels like a trap. I like the Saints, but the miniscule point spread will keep me from labeling this game as a Money Pick.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Buccaneers need their first win, but have they given up on their season? With Chris Simms gone, it'll be interesting to see how motivated Tampa Bay is with a rookie quarterback at the helm.

The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Bye Bye: Jon Gruden is 6-3 ATS off a bye.
  • Weak Arm: Bruce Gradkowski is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Zero Trend: 0-3 teams are 10-8 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
  • Saints are 14-24 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Saints are 8-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Saints -6.
  • Opening Total: 36.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, Saints Defense.
  • Sit Em: Bruce Gradkowski, Cadillac Williams.

Prediction: Saints 23, Buccaneers 10. (Saints -6½).
Incorrect: Saints 24, Buccaneers 21.




Redskins (2-2) at Giants (1-2). Line: Giants by 4½. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Giants -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Giants -3.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Redskins: DOUBTFUL: CB Shawn Springs. Giants: OUT: WR Sinorice Moss, LB Carlos Emmons.

This may sound strange because they’re just a 4-point favorite over a divisional opponent, but this is the easiest game the Giants have had so far. They opened at home against Indianapolis, and then traveled to Philadelphia and Seattle. Whoever made up the Giants’ schedule clearly doesn’t like them.

Despite playing those three tough opponents, New York is actually ranked first in the league against the run. How did that happen? I don’t know – but you can bet that the Giants’ front seven will put the clamps on Clinton Portis, forcing Mark Brunell to operate in obvious-passing situations. If that happens, Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora will be breathing down his neck the entire afternoon.

The Redskins are ranked eighth against the run, but they couldn’t stop Tiki Barber last year. In two meetings, Barber gashed their stop unit for 286 yards on just 40 carries. If Barber can continue to abuse and humiliate Washington’s defense, Eli Manning will be able to utilize play-action to Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and the always-disgruntled Jeremy Shockey. Manning is a much better quarterback at home than he is on the road, anyway.

As I’ve written below, this contest means much more to the Giants, who need to crawl out of their 1-2 hole. With Washington coming off an emotional victory, I’m siding with New York.


The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
In the wake of a very emotional victory to improve to 2-2, the Redskins are now out of the danger zone. The same can't be said about the Giants, who were 1-2 going into the bye.

The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 52-75 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; REDSKINS won in overtime.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Giants -4.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Santana Moss, Eli Manning, Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey.
  • Sit Em: Clinton Portis, Redskins Defense.

Prediction: Giants 34, Redskins 24. (Giants -4½).
Money Pick.
Correct: Giants 19, Redskins 3.




Chiefs (1-2) at Cardinals (1-3). Line: Chiefs by 3½. Over-Under: 39½.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Cardinals -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Pick.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Trent Green, OT John Welbourn (RET), DT John Browning (IR). QUESTIONABLE: OT Kyle Turley, OT Will Svitek. Cardinals: QUESTIONABLE: LB James Darling.

I never would have thought that Damon Huard would be favored over Matt Leinart. I don’t think anyone could have foreseen this. We live in a strange world.

What’s even weirder is how well Huard played last week. Granted, it was against the woeful 49ers, but he was 18-of-23 for 208 yards and two touchdowns. It also helped that Larry Johnson was able to rush for 101 yards and two scores on 30 carries. I see no reason why the Chiefs can’t score a bunch of points again. Sure, Huard will be playing on the road, but it’s not like Cardinals Stadium is a hostile environment. And I have no idea how Arizona, ranked 26th against the run, will stop Johnson.

Another surprise has been how well Kansas City’s stop unit has played thus far. The defense limited Cincinnati, Denver and San Francisco to a grand total of 32 points. The Chiefs have also yielded just 122 passing yards per contest, which bodes well against the likes of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Since the Cardinals have no running game, look for Leinart to struggle in long-yardage situations.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking Huard on the road. I don’t know if I can live with myself anymore.


The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
Both teams need a win, but the fact that the Cardinals are starting a rookie quarterback means that they're playing for 2007. The Chiefs are attempting to make the postseason this year. They need to go to 2-2.

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Weak Arm: Damon Huard is 1-0 ATS on the road since 2002.
  • Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Larry Johnson, Eddie Kennison, Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs Defense.
  • Sit Em: Edgerrin James.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Cardinals 10. (Chiefs -3½).
Incorrect: Chiefs 23, Cardinals 20.




Jets (2-2) at Jaguars (2-2). Line: Jaguars by 6½. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Jaguars -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Jaguars -4.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). DOUBTFUL: RB Cedric Houston. QUESTIONABLE: WR Laveranues Coles*, WR Tim Dwight, G Pete Kendall, CB David Barrett. Jaguars: OUT: RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Matt Jones, DE Marcellus Wiley, DT Marcus Stroud.

I have to say that I’m glad that the two quarterbacks whose shoulder I was concerned about – Drew Brees and Chad Pennington – are playing as if they had never been injured. In fact, I thought it was remarkable how poised Pennington was against Indianapolis. If the Jets had one more minute, they probably would have won that game.

New York’s offense has averaged 24 points per game this year, but it will be facing a defense tougher than any other squad it has played this year. And to make matters worse, the Jaguars’ stop unit will be focused on rebounding from a rare poor performance. Contrary to what they did against the Colts, the Jets will not be able to run the ball with Kevan Barlow and Cedric Houston; the Jaguars, with Donovin Darius back after missing the 2005 campaign, are 14th against rushing attacks. Pennington will be placed in obvious-passing situations, which could be troublesome because Jacksonville has a secondary that has picked off six passes this year.

The Jets gave Peyton Manning problems last week, but it was obvious that the Colts were unfocused for that game. I haven’t forgotten the 300 yards New York surrendered to J.P. Losman in Week 3, which was the same contest Willis McGahee rumbled for 150 yards. Furthermore, the Jets had problems containing New England the previous week. Jacksonville should be able to score enough to edge out a close victory.

My analysis makes it seem like I’m picking the Jets plus the points. But there is a very strong trend going against them. I’m talking about the “Hello, Bye” statistic, which states that heavy favorites are nearly flawless before their byes. There’s no way I can go against that percentage.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams probably know that they won't be claiming their respective divisions, so the winner of this contest could have a major edge in the wild-card race.

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Hello, Bye: Favorites of 6½ or more are 21-1 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Jets are 10-18-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 30 instances (3-1 this year).
  • Jaguars are 4-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -7.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Showers, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Reggie Williams.
  • Sit Em: Kevan Barlow, Cedric Houston.

Prediction: Jaguars 31, Jets 21. (Jaguars -6½).
Correct: Jaguars 41, Jets 0.




Raiders (0-3) at 49ers (1-3). Line: 49ers by 3½. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): 49ers -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): 49ers -6.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
Injuries: Raiders: OUT: QB Aaron Brooks*, CB Fabian Washington. QUESTIONABLE: OT Robert Gallery, DE Lance Johnstone, LB Grant Irons. 49ers: OUT: TE Vernon Davis*, C Jeremy Newberry (IR). DOUBTFUL: G Larry Allen.

Four years is a long time. Just look at the last time these two teams met in the regular season. The 49ers, led by Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens, who would eventually reach the second round of the playoffs, beat the Raiders, 23-20, in overtime. Oakland, meanwhile, under Rich Gannon and Bill Callahan, eventually made it to the Super Bowl. That season (2002) was the last time either of those two squads made it to the postseason.

Since no one is going to read a long analysis about the Battle of the Bay, let me make this quick. Andrew Walter was 9-of-23 for 68 yards, one touchdown, one interception and four sacks last week. At home. Against Cleveland. He’ll play even worse on the road.

Meanwhile, the 49ers should be able to bounce back from a miserable game at Kansas City. Remember, San Francisco hung at Arizona, and managed to give the Rams their only loss this season. And besides, under Mike Nolan, the 49ers have covered all three times they’ve lost by at least 30.

I can’t foresee myself picking the Raiders in the near future. They have a great shot at going 0-16.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge; both teams need a win.

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Weak Arm: Andrew Walter is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Zero Trend: 0-3 teams are 16-15 ATS since 2000.
  • 49ers are 3-0 ATS after losing by 30+ under Mike Nolan.
  • Raiders are 5-15 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Raiders are 3-12 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -3½.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Mild wind: 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Alex Smith, Kevan Barlow, Antonio Bryant, 49ers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Andrew Walter, Raiders Defense, Al Davis’ Jumpsuit.

Prediction: 49ers 20, Raiders 3. (49ers -3½).
Money Pick.
Correct: 49ers 34, Raiders 20.




Cowboys (2-1) at Eagles (3-1). Line: Eagles by 2. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:15 ET
Walter's Game of the Week

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Eagles -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Eagles -4.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: S Marcus Coleman (SUSP). Eagles: OUT: DE Jevon Kearse (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Donte' Stallworth*, CB Rod Hood. QUESTIONABLE: RB Brian Westbrook*, WR Reggie Brown*, CB Lito Sheppard.

For those of you unfamiliar with what this game means to Philadelphia, the entire city is going crazy about this matchup. The word “revenge” is coming up in every single conversation between Philadelphians this week. The emotion at the Link won’t match that of New Orleans in Week 3, but it’ll be pretty close. Eagle fans will not allow their team to lose to Terrell Owens. I just can’t see it happening.

Philadelphia’s secondary hasn’t played that well this year, so if Dallas wants to win this game, it must successfully attack the corners with Owens and Terry Glenn. That said, both Lito Sheppard and Rod Hood, who could have played against the Packers but chose to rest up for this game instead, will be back in the lineup to provide their team with the depth it needs at the position. The Eagles’ front four must also help the secondary by putting immense pressure on Drew Bledsoe; they’ve accumulated 16 sacks this year, while Bledsoe has been pinned to the ground only thrice. The winner of the battle up front will have a huge edge in this contest – especially considering that Julius Jones won’t find any running room against the league’s 10th-ranked rush defense.

I don’t think Dallas will have much success on defense, given all of the aspects of Philadelphia’s offense it will be asked to defend. Brian Westbrook is back, so the Cowboys will have to worry about his ability to run the ball and catch it out of the backfield. Donte’ Stallworth, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith and Greg Lewis could be too much for a secondary that has depth issues. And most importantly, Donovan McNabb showed the world that he’s not afraid to scramble in an effort to pick up a first down; he carried the ball five times for 47 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay. The Cowboys will force a few punts, since they are ninth against the run, and have garnered nine sacks in three contests. However, Philadelphia will have the advantage in time of possession and net yardage by the time this one is over.

As I mentioned in the first paragraph, this means everything to the Eagles and their fans. They just can’t lose this game – it would be too devastating to the City of Brotherly Love.


The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
Hmmm... I wonder which team has more motivation to win this game...

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Eagles have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Post-Monday Night Magic: All teams are 23-12 ATS after a 17+ win on MNF since 1999. (Andy Reid 3-0).
  • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 62-45 ATS on the road following a road win (Bill Parcells 1-2).
  • Eagles are 35-19 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 14-9 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -2.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith.
  • Sit Em: Julius Jones, Cowboys Defense.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17. (Eagles -2).
Double Money Pick.
Correct: Eagles 38, Cowboys 24.




Steelers (1-2) at Chargers (2-1). Line: Chargers by 3½. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 8:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Chargers -3½.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Chargers -4.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Steelers: QUESTIONABLE: CB Ricardo Colclough. Chargers: OUT: OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: S Bhawoh Jue.

Is there anyone in the NFL who needed a bye more than the Steelers? In back-to-back losses to the Jaguars and Bengals, Ben Roethlisberger was so jittery it looked like he thought some motorcycle-riding appendix was going to run him over at any given time. But that’s absurd; everyone knows appendices don’t ride motorcycles.

Unless the Steelers feel like becoming the first Super Bowl winner to miss the postseason since Tampa Bay in 2003, they need Roethlisberger to revert to championship form. However, given all the travails he experienced this offseason, it’s hard to demand a lot from him this soon. And that’s why it’s hard to predict how well Pittsburgh’s offense will play on Sunday night. Roethlisberger torched San Diego’s secondary for 225 yards and a touchdown last year. Can he do it again? Or will we see the same quarterback who threw three interceptions against Cincinnati?

One certainty is that Pittsburgh’s defense will play like the season is on the line. It actually is in a sense – the Steelers cannot afford to start 1-3, given how far ahead the Bengals and Ravens are. Pittsburgh will stack the line of scrimmage against LaDainian Tomlinson, which is precisely what it did last year. In a Week 5 matchup, Tomlinson gained only 62 yards. San Diego lost by only two points, however, as Drew Brees was able to move the chains the entire night. If Tomlinson is shut down, I can’t be as confident about Philip Rivers, who is making his second real start in this league (Oakland and Tennessee don’t count).

If Roethlisberger’s mindset improves, this is an even matchup. If not, San Diego will win in a low-scoring affair. I’m just not sure where Big Ben is right now.


The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
Although the Chargers are coming off a loss, this contest is far more important to the Steelers, who will not stand for starting 1-3.

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Steelers are 19-4 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 27-6 as a starter (22-11 ATS).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -3½.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Antonio Gates.
  • Sit Em: Willie Parker, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Chargers 15, Steelers 13. (Steelers +3½).
Incorrect: Chargers 23, Steelers 13.




Ravens (4-0) at Broncos (2-1). Line: Broncos by 5½. Over-Under: 33½.
Monday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Broncos -5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Broncos -5.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Injuries: Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Terrell Suggs, LB Adalius Thomas. Broncos: OUT: P Todd Sauerbrun (SUSP). DOUBTFUL: DE Courtney Brown.

Ready for the most bizarre statistic in NFL history? Brian Billick is 4-1 against Mike Shanahan. No, I did not make that up – check it out for yourself if you don’t believe me. In fact, the only loss Billick incurred to Shanahan was a tight 12-10 defeat in 2005, even though Kyle Boller threw two interceptions and fumbled once at Denver. I guess Billick has Shanahan’s number. Wow, I feel weird just thinking about that.

Everyone knows the way to beat Jake Plummer is to shut down his rushing attack, and force him to throw from the pocket. The Ravens can definitely do that; they are ranked second against the run. In fact, they were able to put the clamps on Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson last year, restricting the two runners to 84 yards on 24 carries. If Baltimore can continue its dominance in the trenches, Plummer should have three interceptions by the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Denver also possesses one of the league’s premier run-stopping units, so don’t expect much from Jamal Lewis. However, the Broncos’ Achilles Heel is their inability to generate a consistent pass rush; they have garnered only four sacks this year. It won’t be pretty, but Steve McNair should be able to command his offense to just enough points to secure a fifth victory.

And by the way, I still can’t get over that stat I mentioned in my opening paragraph. I don’t think I’m going to be able to sleep well anytime soon.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
A battle between two great teams on Monday Night Football. Expect 100-percent effort from both sides.

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Brian Billick is 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) vs. Mike Shanahan.
  • Bye Bye: Mike Shanahan is 7-3 ATS off a bye.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 52-75 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; RAVENS scored a GW TD with 34 seconds left.
  • Ravens are 7-13 ATS as an underdog the previous 20 instances.
  • Broncos are 8-4 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -4½.
  • Opening Total: 34.
  • Weather: Showers, 46 degrees. Mild wind: 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Todd Heap, Ravens Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jake Plummer, Both Running Games.

Prediction: Ravens 17, Broncos 13. (Ravens +5½).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Broncos 13, Ravens 3.


My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 2-1
Eagles: 3-1
Giants: 1-2
Redskins: 3-1

Bears: 2-2
Lions: 3-1
Packers: 4-0
Vikings: 2-2

Buccaneers: 0-3
Falcons: 2-2
Panthers: 1-3
Saints: 2-2

49ers: 3-1
Cardinals: 2-2
Rams: 2-2
Seahawks: 2-2

Bills: 0-4
Dolphins: 2-2
Jets: 2-2
Patriots: 2-2

Bengals: 3-1
Browns: 1-2
Ravens: 2-2
Steelers: 2-1

Colts: 1-2
Jaguars: 0-3
Texans: 3-1
Titans: 3-1

Broncos: 1-2
Chargers: 2-1
Chiefs: 1-2
Raiders: 1-1

Divisional Games: 10-15
Trend Edge: 8-12
Game Edge: 10-13
Psychological Edge: 2-3
Double Edge: 3-7


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Preseason 2014): 6-6 (-$90)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 3-3 (-$60)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 0-0 ($0)
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2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-0, 0% ($0)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
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2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
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2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
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2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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