NOTE: Check out the bottom of my Saints-Falcons pick for some words on Week 14...
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
Sports Betting FAQ
Chicago Bears (5-7) at Washington Redskins (5-7)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 37.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13):
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13):
Thursday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Redskins.
OUT: G Ruben Brown, DT Dusty Dvoracek, CB Nathan Vasher, S Mike Brown. QUESTIONABLE: QB Brian Griese.
OUT: OT Jon Jansen.
Let's take a look at how Vegas faired this past weekend. After a horrendous Sunday for the books in Week 13, the oddsmakers came out on top again. They
cashed in with the Bills, Jaguars, Cardinals, Raiders and Buccaneers all covering. They lost with the Rams, Vikings, Chargers and Giants. That's only 5-4,
but remember, the books get the juice. And don't forget about Monday night. The big cheeses in Vegas were rolling in dough because Baltimore covered.
I know the Redskins just endured a week of tragedy, but I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in their performance against the Bills. They simply
came out flat, made
mental mistakes and committed too many turnovers. I thought they'd play inspired football and honor their fallen teammate. Instead, they gave the game away
to a mediocre team and a rookie quarterback.
If Washington couldn't get up to honor Sean Taylor, how can it possibly mentally prepare for this contest? Everyone on the Redskins was at Taylor's funeral
in Miami on Monday. That means they had to fly back that night and endure jet lag during practice on Tuesday. That gives the players and the coaches just
one real day to prepare for the Bears, who despite losing to the Giants last week, are looking much better right now than they did earlier this year.
The difference is Rex Grossman. Gone - at least temporarily - is the skittish quarterback who completely botched Super Bowl XLI. I brought up these numbers
last week - prior to being benched, Grossman had one touchdown and six picks. Since returning to the lineup, he's had only one interception to just three
scores, which easily could have been four if Devin Hester knew how to catch.
Unfortunately for the Bears, they can't pass protect efficiently; they've already surrendered 30 sacks this year because their offensive line is too old and
banged up. The Redskins, meanwhile, can get to the quarterback (26 sacks). They can also stop the run, which nullifies Adrian Peterson. And even worse, the
opposite matchup doesn't work for Chicago, whose defense is 30th versus opposing ground attacks, meaning Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should be able to
rush for about 150 yards.
However, that's under normal circumstances. Portis managed only 50 yards on 25 carries against the Bills because the offensive linemen and blockers were
unfocused. I already mentioned that Washington may not be prepared to take on Chicago. If so, Portis won't be the only one who will struggle; Jason Campbell
had two turnovers in his own territory and safety against Buffalo's pedestrian stop unit. If the Redskins are unfocused, I could see the Bears piling up the
sacks, fumble recoveries and interceptions.
Tough game to call because we're presuming Washington will be too mentally and physically fatigued to play a surging opponent. That, of course, could be
wrong. The Redskins could conceivably show up to play. Another reason picking the Bears is tough is because despite there being 77-percent action on the
visitor, the line hasn't moved off three. If the spread changes, I may feel more confident about this selection.
The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
How are the Redskins going to prepare for this game? They had Sean Taylor's funeral on Monday and flew back that night. That gives them two days to get ready for Chicago.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Both teams are coming off losses, but many people, including myself, were burnt by the Redskins last week. Could be solid action on the underdog.
Percentage of money on Chicago: 63% (75,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bears.
Redskins are 1-5 ATS as a favorite in 2007.
Opening Line: Redskins -3.
Opening Total: 37.5.
Weather: Clear, 28 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Bernard Berrian, Greg Olsen, Bears Defense, Clinton Portis, Chris Cooley.
Sit Em: Adrian Peterson, Redskins Defense.
Prediction: Bears 24, Redskins 20
Bears +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Over 37.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Redskins 24, Bears 16.
Carolina Panthers (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Line: Jaguars by 10.5. Total: 38.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jaguars -10.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Jaguars -10.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: PANTHERS: OUT: QB Jake Delhomme. JAGUARS: OUT: K Josh Scobee.
You may soon notice that I don't have any posted picks for the college football bowl games. That's because this Web site boycotts the bowls, in hopes that
the foolish college presidents soon realize how idiotic and archaic their system is. Could you imagine if NCAA basketball, instead of running its beloved
65-team tournament in March, decided to play 30 meaningless games, randomly designating one of them as its championship? Seriously, it's the dumbest thing
Take this conversation, for example. My friend Brad, an avid Penn State fan, complained to me that the Nittany Lions' loss to Michigan State
would mean they would be forced to go to the Alamo Bowl instead of the Outback Bowl. Oh no! I asked him what the difference was. He replied, "Well, one's on
New Years Day. The other is before then." I laughed, "Who wants a game on New Years Day? I'd probably be too hungover to watch. In fact, I'd probably sleep
right through it." He had no answer. Even if Penn State were invited to the Outback Bowl, what would they get if it won the game? The opportunity to play a
better opponent? No. It wouldn't get anything. All of these non-championship bowls are just a waste of everyone's time. I'm not going to watch any of them,
and I really hope none of you do either. If these games don't get good ratings, maybe these dumb presidents will change their system.
Can my "Boycott the Bowls" initiative include not watching this snoozer? Seriously, why are they playing this game? You know the Jaguars are going to win
easily. The Panthers are pathetic, winning and covering their first game since Week 6. Their victory was against the 49ers, however, so it shouldn't even
count. Seriously, how sad is it that Carolina's starting quarterback is 44 years old? I love what Bill Simmons wrote about this. It went something like, "I
can't wait until the injury report says 'Testaverde - Questionable - Constipation.'"
Is there a chance the Panthers stay competitive with one of the elite teams in the NFL? Despite how negative the previous paragraph sounded, I believe so.
First of all, if you made it your business to bet on Carolina as an underdog and fade them as a favorite of 3.5 or more over the past four years, you would
be 45-24, which is good enough to live on an island.
Still, I need something more than that to convince you that the Panthers are a solid play. I have just the thing. I find it hard to believe the
Jaguars will be completely focused and energized for this contest, as they put too much stock into beating the Colts. If you don't believe me, let's look at
some recent history. Following a loss to Indianapolis last year, Jacksonville showed up flat and lost to an inferior Washington squad. After beating the
Colts later that year, the Jaguars went down to the Titans, 24-17. This has occurred over the past few seasons because the Jaguars hate Indianapolis more
than any other team in the league. I'm excluding what happened earlier this campaign, by the way, because Jacksonville played hard with David Garrard out.
Will that do it? The Panthers still need to score somehow. With Testaverde replacing David Carr, there's more of a chance of Steve Smith getting the ball.
And if the Jaguars are indeed unfocused, there may not be as many running lanes for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. If you need a tertiary reason for
Carolina, it's that the public loves Jacksonville and there has hardly been any line movement.
The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
Can the Jaguars get up for this game? They put everything into playing the Colts, and lost. They also play Pittsburgh next week, making this a Sandwich Situation. They're not locked into the fifth spot, but they're holding it right now. Carolina needs a victory more.
The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Despite their win over the 49ers, I can't see anyone betting the Panthers right now.
Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 76% (75,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
Panthers are 25-14 ATS as an underdog the previous 39 instances.
Jaguars are 6-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Opening Line: Jaguars -10.5.
Opening Total: 38.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Steve Smith, Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars Defense.
Sit Em: Panthers Offense (excluding Smith) and Defense.
Prediction: Jaguars 16, Panthers 15
Panthers +10.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
Under 38.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Jaguars 37, Panthers 6.
Dallas Cowboys (11-1) at Detroit Lions (6-6)
Line: Cowboys by 10.5. Total: 50.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Cowboys -5.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Cowboys -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: COWBOYS: OUT: WR Terry Glenn, NT Jason Ferguson. LIONS: OUT: WR Roy Williams, S Daniel Bullocks.
Even more on this stupid bowl system. Casual fans who back the bowls love the tradition of it all. I don't get that either. If playing meaningless games is
tradition, why don't people love the WNBA? Just kidding, just kidding. The correct analogy would be NFL exhibition. Not much tradition there,
except for degenerate gamblers like myself who wager hundreds of dollars. The college presidents refuse to implement a playoff because of money; not
tradition. They seem to be convinced that a legitimate postseason can't produce as much revenue as they are garnering right now. That's because they fall
under two categories: 1) Old, stubborn dinosaurs who refuse to die. 2) Ugly men who want revenge on everyone for making fun of them as children.
Here's a perfect example.
What these idiotic men don't
realize is that they can still have the small bowls in conjunction with a playoff. As for the BCS Bowls, the Orange, Fiesta, Sugar and Rose bowls can all
host each game of the Final Four. Everyone would make tons of cash. Fans would love it. Can you imagine - people filling out brackets, taking a sick day to
watch the first round of the games (this Friday afternoon), and experiencing all of the upsets? It would be the single best thing in all of sports. This is
why I'm boycotting the bowls. We need a playoff. The only way we're going to get it is if people stop watching these meaningless bowls, taking millions away
from the greedy, archaic and ugly presidents.
Speaking of ugly, Detroit's situation isn't looking too good. They're still tied for the final wildcard spot, but they're in a free fall, having lost four
in a row. Making matters worse is that Roy Williams is now out. That means that throwing the ball, which is the only thing the Lions are good at, has become
more difficult because Jon Kitna no longer has his best weapon. Without having Williams to worry about, the Cowboys' front seven, which has accumulated 33
sacks this year, can tee off on Kitna, who has been sacked 50 times this year. Seriously, if Kitna weren't touched by the hand of God, he'd be in a hospital
It'll get even uglier once the Lions' defense takes the field. Their stop unit is 31st versus the pass and 27th against the run, so I just don't see how
it's going to contain Tony Romo, Terrell Owens and company. Detroit needs to score some turnovers. There's a chance that could happen, given that the
Cowboys could be flat in the wake of beating the Packers. However, to do that, the Lions will need to pressure Romo. Dallas has yielded only 16 sacks this
year, so I don't see that happening. Detroit's secondary does have 16 interceptions, so I guess you can say there is hope.
But not that much hope. Other than the flat angle, I can't think of a single reason to take the Lions. They're a dying team that just lost its best player.
And even though there is tons of cash on the Cowboys, the line is actually moving their way. You can find some -11 and - 11.5 in some shops, as of Tuesday
The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
This game obviously means more to the Lions, who appear to be in a free fall. Not sure if the Cowboys will be focused; they just beat the Packers.
The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
I don't think it matters what the line is; the Cowboys will likely receive 90 percent of the money.
Percentage of money on Dallas: 90% (100,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
Tony Romo is 14-7 ATS as a starter.
Tony Romo is 7-2 ATS on the road.
Opening Line: Cowboys -10.5.
Opening Total: 52.
Start Em: Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Cowboys Defense.
Sit Em: Lions Offense.
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 10
Cowboys -10.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 50.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Cowboys 28, Lions 27.
Miami Dolphins (0-12) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 34.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bills -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Bills -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: QB Trent Green, S Yeremiah Bell.
BILLS: OUT: WR Peerless Price, TE Kevin Everett, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Jason Webster.
I'm telling you, I'd make a great NFL coach. Not because I'm good at Xs and Os, or any of that stuff. It's just that I recently discovered that I'm just as
out of touch with reality as some of the league's best clipboard-holders. A few years ago, when Joe Gibbs was asked whom he was voting for in the presidential
election, Gibbs replied, "I don't even know who's running." Following the Cowboys-Packers tilt that no one saw, Wade Phillips said, "I'm not sure if Tony
Romo is the next American Idol..." I seriously doubt Phillips knows what American Idol even is. And that brings me to my initial point. I'm just as
lost as those guys. I was talking to my cousin, who was desperately trying to get Hannah Montana tickets. Befuddled, I asked, "Who's Hannah Montana? Some
lesbian porn star?" The sad thing is I was dead serious. Apparently, for those of you as out of touch as I am, Hannah Montana is some teen pop idol. I had
It's amazing how everyone's perspective changes week to week. Prior to last Sunday, everyone thought this Dolphins squad was just down on its luck and
played much better than its 0-11 record indicated. Before that, Miami was a two-touchdown underdog at Pittsburgh. Now that the team was clobbered by the
Jets, who were extremely furious that they were underdogs to a winless squad, everyone is projecting the Dolphins to go 0-16 again.
Miami plays close games. Six of its 12 losses have been by three points. Excluding the Patriots blowout, the team has only been beaten by more than 10 thrice. Of those
three occasions, the Dolphins were favored twice. They won't win giving points, as we all saw last week. They'll have to take down an overconfident squad by
surprise. A squad like the Bills.
I don't trust Buffalo as a touchdown favorite just yet. Trent Edwards is still a rookie and cannot be counted on not to make mistakes. The Dolphins'
defense, though archaic and slow, has the veterans and savvy to bait even the best quarterbacks into unforced errors. Just check out that Pittsburgh Monday
night battle if you don't believe me. That said, the Bills will score quite a bit, especially if Marshawn Lynch sits. So, it'll be up to Miami's offense to
The Bills' run defense has gotten better over the course of this season, but it's still a bit shaky. Two weeks ago, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 114
yards on just 24 carries. And when Buffalo played Miami last month, Jesse Chatman compiled 124 yards on 27 attempts. I think Chatman can match that number, giving
John Beck breathing room against a stop unit that has only 13 sacks and ranks 29th versus the pass.
The Dolphins are set up beautifully for their first victory. The Bills, coming off an emotional, last-second win as an underdog, will be looking past Miami
to their battles against the Browns and Giants the next two weeks. The fact that more than nine-tenths of the public is on the host only helps matters. That
said, I think the Dolphins will find some way to lose their 13th game of the year. It'll be close though.
The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
Trust me, the Dolphins are playing hard, despite last week's performance against the Jets. The Bills are on an Emotional Win Alert, as they beat the Redskins on a last-second field goal. Buffalo has the Browns and Giants the next two weeks, so you can call this a Breather Alert as well.
The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
I would predict that there would be at least 75 percent on the Bills in the wake of the Dolphins getting blown out at home against the Jets.
Percentage of money on Buffalo: 75% (66,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
History: Bills have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-37 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 8-2 ATS since 2000.
Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 5-1 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
Opening Line: Bills -7.
Opening Total: 36.5.
Weather: Freezing rain, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.
Start Em: Jesse Chatman, Dolphins Defense, Lee Evans.
Sit Em: Bills Defense.
Prediction: Bills 16, Dolphins 13
Dolphins +7 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
Under 34.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Bills 38, Dolphins 17.
New York Giants (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 42.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Eagles -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Giants -2.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: RB Derrick Ward*. EAGLES: QUESTIONABLE: QB Donovan McNabb*.
I have to give forum poster JimmyP credit for this one. During the Cowboys-Packers game, Jimmy complained about seeing the Peyton Manning Mind commercial
one too many times. You know, the one where he counts down from three and looks over his options as Jason Taylor is rumbling toward him in a dim hallway?
Well, Jimmy wrote, "I'm wondering what Eli Manning's mind looks like. Eleven guys wide open ready to return pick-sixes. Peyton on the sideline giving him
noogies every time he walks off the field after an unsuccessful drive. Daddy drunk on the sidelines throwing empty cans of PBR at his head with far more
accuracy than Eli's passing. His voice breaking every time he calls an audible. Jared Lorenzen's head morphed onto Jubba the Hutt's body, threatening to eat
him as a halftime snack." I have one word for that: LOL.
I can be an idiot sometimes. Three weeks ago, I said the following: "This Eagles squad falters when expectations are high, and shocks the world when
everyone predicts a defeat." I used that in the Dolphins game, but was burnt when Miami blew a 7-0 lead to lose 17-7, coming just a bit shy of the 9.5-point
spread. However, if I had utilized that mindset the following two weeks, I would have won. Philadelphia inexplicably covered the second-highest point spread
in NFL history and then came back to lose to Seattle when all the fans were confident in their ability to win. Now, everyone's down on the Eagles again, opining
that it's time for Andy Reid to go. Reid, meanwhile, has spent the early part of this week lashing out at the media. It's not a pretty sight.
Despite all that, Philadelphia is favored. Why? Weren't the Giants favored at Chicago? Are the Eagles really 4.5 points better than the Bears? Didn't New
York completely dominate Donovan McNabb and company earlier in the year, sacking the immobile quarterback 12 times?
I thought that with the bizarre spread, more people would be taking the Giants. Unfortunately, that's not the case; as of Tuesday afternoon, nearly 60
percent of the public likes Philadelphia. I find that strange. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the suddenly beleaguered Eagles need this game
more. What is New York playing for, anyway? The team is locked into the fifth seed. Meanwhile, a Philadelphia loss could dispel its postseason aspirations.
I think it's safe to say New York won't sack McNabb 12 times on Sunday. When that happened, the Eagles were missing Brian Westbrook and left tackle William
Tra Thomas. And even with those two guys out - the former being an MVP candidate despite his team's abysmal record - Philadelphia lost by only 13 points. Eli
Manning was his usual self, compiling just 135 yards and throwing a pick in the process. I'm not buying his second-half performance against the Bears; I
still think he's a very sub-par quarterback whose turnovers come by the dozen. He'll definitely commit quite a few facing a rabid Eagles defense playing for
respect with its back against the wall.
I'm following my Eagles strategy from now until the end of the year. Even though they're favored, it doesn't seem like anyone in this city is giving them
much of a shot to win this game. They'll shock the public once again.
The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
The Giants don't have anything to play for at this point, given that they're locked into the fifth seed, barring a major collapse. The Eagles, meanwhile, want revenge for the 12 sacks New York registered earlier this season. The host also needs a victory more than the visitor.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Eagles are favored? Why? The public will bet their houses on the Giants.
Percentage of money on New York: 51% (57,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Giants.
History: Giants have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 80-65 ATS on the road following a road win (Tom Coughlin 7-4).
Eagles are 44-29 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Eagles are 20-12 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
Opening Line: Eagles -3.
Opening Total: 42.
Weather: Cloudy, 47 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Shockey, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis, Eagles Defense.
Sit Em: Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb.
Prediction: Eagles 23, Giants 17
Eagles -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 42 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Giants 16, Eagles 13.
Oakland Raiders (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (10-2)
Line: Packers by 10.5. Total: 40.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Packers -14.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Packers -14.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: .
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: RB Michael Bush. PACKERS: OUT: RB DeShawn Wynn, S Nick Collins. QUESTIONABLE: QB Brett Favre*.
Did you know that Brett Favre likes jeans that are comfortable? Did you know that Brett Favre likes jeans that look great? No? You're shocked that he feels
that way? Yeah, I was surprised too when I found out.
I find it funny that there's a line on this game despite the uncertainty that Favre will play. A week ago, this wouldn't have been the case. But Aaron
Rodgers looked great in relief against the Cowboys, instantly validating the No. 1 pick Green Bay spent on him in 2005, and quelling the concerns of Packers
fans who were wondering if the franchise could remain a playoff contender once Favre retires. So, I guess it doesn't matter who plays quarterback this
Sunday. I'm willing to bet it's Favre, who looked a bit skittish against the Cowboys, unnecessarily forcing throws that the 2006 version did so many times.
I don't get why he did that, but I have the feeling he'll refrain from doing so against the Raiders, whose defense can't stop anyone. Oakland is 31st against
the run, so look for Ryan Grant to get going on the ground, setting up play-action opportunities for Favre or Rodgers. The Raiders have just 21 sacks on the
year, so don't count on either signal caller getting thrown to the turf too much.
Josh McCown had the game of his life against the Broncos, tossing three touchdowns against a solid secondary. Unfortunately for the Raiders, this only
hindered their future playoff resurgence, as McCown's performance kept JaMarcus Russell off the field. McCown may struggle this week, as the Packers get to
the quarterback with ease. And we all know, the Raiders can't pass protect. Besides, McCown won't have Justin Fargas to lean on because Green Bay is decent
against the run.
The Packers' five-game winning streak was snapped, so how will that affect them? As you can see in my Trends section, teams in that situation have rebounded
admirably. I'm a big fan of the public's take on the game as well; the average bettor is selling Green Bay following its loss to Dallas, and buying Oakland
because it upset the lowly Broncos and Chiefs. This has produced a short line with a publicly backed underdog. The Packers are 9-2-1 against the spread this
year, and I have to believe they'll be 10-2-1 by Sunday evening.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Packers are locked into the No. 2 seed, so this game means nothing to them. The Raiders are three games out of a playoff spot, so they're in limbo as well.
The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Why are the Packers only -10.5? This line will induce tons of Green Bay action.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 65% (78,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Five Snap: Non-undefeated teams having a 5+ game winning streak snapped are 16-8 ATS the following game since 2002.
Packers are 10-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Opening Line: Packers -10.
Opening Total: 42.
Weather: Snow showers, 29 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Packers Defense.
Sit Em: Josh McCown, Jusin Fargas, Ronald Curry, Raiders Defense.
Prediction: Packers 27, Raiders 10
Packers -10.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 40 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Packers 38, Raiders 7.
San Diego Chargers (7-5) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Line: Pick. Total: 39.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Titans -2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Chargers -2.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Titans.
Injuries: TITANS: OUT: WR David Givens, CB Pacman Jones, S Chris Hope.
It's time for another commercial that annoys the hell out of me. This week, it's the one where some kid with an afro and a child-molester mustache is
looking for a Christmas present for his mom. He considers a crystal dove (Side note: What kind of lame person wants a crystal dove? At that point, you
might as well purchase a bag of dog feces. I see no difference), but settles on a suit for himself. What a selfish jerk. Something like that doesn't work.
Or at least I think it doesn't... Might as well try, right? I'm going to get my future wife golf clubs for Christmas. Once she threatens to take away sex,
I'll respond, "But honey, these golf clubs make me look like a grown man!" So, anyway, back to Mustache Kid. At the end of the commercial, he says of the
suit, "I don't know if she was surprised by it, or by how good I looked in it." Liar. He looked like a bum if anything.
Believe me when I say I like a side in this game much more than that commercial. If you've been reading my picks for a while, you know whom I'm going with.
The Chargers are the biggest frauds ever. They win at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs haven't had much success this year, and clobber the Ravens, who are
horrible, despite what they did against New England on Monday night, and suddenly they're supposed to be great? Why, because Norv Turner suddenly realized
that giving the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson pays off? Give me a break. I don't see Tomlinson getting much on the ground this week. Once Turner sees Albert
Haynesworth stuff the 2006 MVP in the backfield a few times, he'll go pass-happy with the fundamentally unsound Philip Rivers. And I'm willing to bet that
Rivers will go through long stretches without giving Antonio Gates the ball. That occurred at Kansas City last week.
Conversely, the Titans will be able to run the ball efficiently. LenDale White and Chris Brown will pound a Chargers defense ranked 24th versus opposing
ground attacks. That, of course, will set up play-action opportunities for Vince Young, who has the mobility to avoid Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips
that neither Kyle Boller nor Damon Huard possess.
And it's not like San Diego will be playing with much fire in this spot; they're at least two games ahead of everyone in their division, meaning they're
landlocked at the No. 4 seed in the playoff race. Tennessee, meanwhile, is fighting for its playoff life. A loss at this juncture would be catastrophic. The
Titans need to win this game much more than the Chargers do. It's not even close.
Another reason I love the Titans has to do with the spread and money trail. The Chargers opened as a 1-point favorite over Tennessee, which did not induce
equal betting. In fact, as of Tuesday afternoon, more than 95 percent of the action is on San Diego. Yet, the spread has shifted from one to pick 'em. Why
did this happen? Why do the books want more people to take the Chargers? They obviously think the Titans are the right play. And if you side with
Vegas every time, you'll win more often than not.
The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
The Chargers are sitting pretty, two games atop the AFC West. This game doesn't mean as much to them as it does to the Titans, who are fighting for a wildcard spot.
The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
The Chargers seem like a more public team than the Titans. There could be more action on them than the Titans.
Percentage of money on San Diego: 89% (98,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
Vince Young is 14-9 as a starter (15-8 ATS).
Opening Line: Chargers -1.
Opening Total: 41.
Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Antonio Gates, Vince Young, LenDale White, Chris Brown, Titans Defense.
Sit Em: Philip Rivers, Chargers Defense.
Prediction: Titans 24, Chargers 20
Titans PK (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
Over 39.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Chargers 23, Titans 17.
St. Louis Rams (3-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
Line: Bengals by 9.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bengals -4.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Bengals -3.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: RAMS: OUT: QB Marc Bulger*, QB Gus Frerotte*, OT Orlando Pace, DE Leonard Little, CB Tye Hill. EXPECTED TO START: QB Brock Berlin.
BENGALS: OUT: RB Chris Perry, DE Frostee Rucker, LB Odell Thurman, LB David Pollack, LB Rashad Jeanty.
Last week I made fun of Bryant Gumbel in my mock conversation. I did so because it seems like he's the biggest nerd ever who has no business calling an NFL
game. I'm not saying he doesn't know anything about football, but when you make comments like, "That's a prop! Ra ra ra!" and "He was rebuffed on the first
one! Ra ra ra!" you're not exactly bringing manly credibility to the microphone. Gumbel should stick to doing to the play-by-play of wine-tasting
extravaganzas and cheese festivals.
As of Tuesday afternoon, there's only one sportsbook, the Olympic, that has a line on this game. That's because Marc Bulger is questionable. But I'm here to
tell you that Bulger's availability doesn't really matter to me. I'll explain.
If it's announced that Bulger is starting, the Rams won't play with the same amount of intensity as they would if Gus Frerotte were starting. There would
be a sense of calmness in the wake of Bulger's availability. The Bengals, assuming they want to exert any sort of energy this week, would play harder,
knowing it would take a greater effort to beat the Rams with their top quarterback in the game.
If Frerotte starts, we're getting a shaky signal caller on the road. And that brings up another point. The Rams suck on grass. Just check the numbers in my
Trend section. Betting against them outside of the Edward Jones Dome has been very lucrative ever since Dick Vermeil retired as their coach. It would take
some crazy line movements for me to select St. Louis on any grass field - even if it were playing a high school football team.
And speaking of the spread, an opening line of six seems a bit high, doesn't it? These teams basically have identical records. In fact, the Rams are hotter.
A few weeks ago, when Cincinnati hosted the Cardinals, the former was favored by just three points, even though it had just one less victory than the
latter. A moderately sized line like this seems to invite a lot of betting on St. Louis. I'll just coolly fade the team that can't win outside.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Bengals were just embarrassed on national TV. Maybe they'll actually show some heart this week. Nah... probably not.
The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Bengals by six? A nice line to induce action on the Rams.
Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 72% (27,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
Crappy Quarterback: Brock Berlin is 0-0 ATS on the road since 2003.
Rams are 15-30 ATS in road games since 2001.
Rams are 8-21 ATS on grass since 2001.
Opening Line: Bengals -6.
Opening Total: 47.5.
Weather: Showers, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.
Start Em: Steven Jackson, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry.
Sit Em: Marc Bulger (questionable), Rams Defense.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Rams 17
Bengals -9.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 45 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100 .
Bengals 19, Rams 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4) at Houston Texans (5-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 40.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Buccaneers -1.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Buccaneers -3.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Cadillac Williams, RB Michael Pittman, OT Luke Petitgout, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Torrie Cox. QUESTIONABLE: QB Jeff Garcia*.
TEXANS: DOUBTFUL: QB Matt Schaub*.
I'm getting this write-up in late, as both Jeff Garcia and Matt Schaub may not play. There's talk about Schaub missing the rest of the season, so I really
doubt he's going to start. Garcia, meanwhile, is pretty optimistic about playing.
I'm going to resort to something I wrote last week. When backup quarterbacks start for the first week, their team usually wins. The reason being everyone
on the squad knows that it's going to take a 200-percent effort to get the job done. The opposition, meanwhile, eases up a bit because the big arm is
standing on the sidelines. Last Sunday, both the Rams and Buccaneers won with their reserve signal callers.
I believe Houston can come out on top here. Tampa Bay played way over its head last week to support Luke McCown. It somehow defeated a relatively healthy
Saints squad on the road, which was very impressive. I feel as though there could be a letdown, especially if Schaub is out. Besides, what are the Buccaneers
playing for, anyway? They're at least three games up on everyone in the division, with all of the tie-breakers in their pocket. This contest is meaningless
for Tampa Bay. Houston, meanwhile, needs a victory to stay alive in the wildcard hunt.
It's easy to declare that Tampa Bay's defense is simply going to suffocate Sage Rosenfels, torch a horrid Houston secondary and win the turnover battle.
If so, why is the spread only three? That's certainly not inducing equal betting action, as you can see below. As I mentioned, I feel as though the Texans
are a smart play this week. It's a little scary going with the wise Sage, but if picking the Buccaneers and winning were this easy, Vegas would be broke.
The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Buccaneers, coming off an Emotional Win, essentially have their division locked up, meaning they're either third or fourth in seeding. Thus, this game means much more to the Texans, who lost to the Titans because Matt Schaub suffered an injury.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
A short line will induce tons of action on Tampa Bay.
Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 74% (33,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 80-65 ATS on the road following a road win.
Buccaneers are 6-18 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.
Buccaneers are 3-9 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.
Texans are 22-11 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Weather: Retractable Roof.
Start Em: Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway, Andre Johnson.
Sit Em: Earnest Graham, Matt Schaub.
Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Texans 16
Texans +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 40.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Texans 28, Buccaneers 14.
Arizona Cardinals (6-6) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 44.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Seahawks -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Seahawks -7.
Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: CARDINALS: OUT: QB Matt Leinart, OT Oliver Ross. QUESTIONABLE: WR Larry Fitzgerald*, WR Anquan Boldin*.
SEAHAWKS: OUT: WR Deion Branch, DT Marcus Tubbs.
As you all well know, I lost my December Pick of the Month. That makes me 3-2 with my Picks of the Month this year. At least one reader was frustrated
by the loss. Check out this e-mail from a guy who went by the name of Deep Sea: "you are full of bulls**t bec you always loss you picked wash redskin bes
ot dec....very funny" I have no idea what I'm more shocked about - the fact that Emmitt Smith reads my Web site, or that he knows how to e-mail people. I
e-mailed Deep Sea (a.k.a. Emmitt Smith) back but didn't get a response. I guess Emmitt was either counting all his "lossed" money he "lossed" by picking the
"Redskin," or preparing to go on TV so he can "gives us some analysts."
I hope I don't get bit in the rear end by saying this, but it appears as though the Cardinals are an easy team to figure out. Their offense is dynamic
enough to keep up with the other team and muster a backdoor cover if needed. However, their running game and defense aren't good enough to put the
opposition away. As a result, every single game Arizona has played this season, with the exception of two, have been decided by eight points or less. One of
the contests, a 25-10 loss to Carolina, was a result of Kurt Warner getting injured and being replaced by Tim Rattay. The other, a 31-21 victory over
Detroit, was actually the first game in the Lions' meltdown.
Going even further, half of Arizona's battles have been decided by a field goal or less. One game that wasn't was last week's 27-21 victory over Cleveland.
Though the Browns moved the chains all afternoon, the Cardinals forced a few turnovers. They could do the same thing again, as Seattle and Cleveland are
pretty similar, given that both teams throw the ball a ton and possess an aging power running back. The difference between the two squads, however, is that
Jamal Lewis is still trying hard. Shaun Alexander, meanwhile, seems content to just fall onto the turf at the first hint of contact. Alexander won't find
any easy running lanes against the Cardinals, who are 14th against opposing ground attacks. Matt Hasselbeck will be forced to constantly toss the ball
downfield into an opportunistic secondary that has 14 interceptions. The Seahawks will score a decent amount of points, but the Cardinals will pick off
Hasselbeck a few times.
Given that this is a huge game for the Cardinals, it's a shame Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald may not play. Both Pro Bowl receivers are listed as
questionable. Arizona needs them to hang the number and potentially win. Without either guy, Seattle's front four, which has registered 36 sacks this year,
will tee off on Warner. With those wide outs in the lineup, however, the Seahawks may be hesitant to blitz as much.
No reason not to keep going with the Cardinals' M.O. Their games always stay within seven, so taking the touchdown seems like the wise choice, especially
when you consider where the public is going with this.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Cardinals obviously need this game more, but I think this is a statement game for the Seahawks, as Arizona beat them in Week 2.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
I'm not sure if people believe in the Cardinals yet. There could be a good amount of action on the Seahawks.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 77% (67,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-37 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
Weak Revenge: Mike Holmgren is 0-4 ATS in divisional revenge games since 2002.
Matt Hasselbeck is 12-17 ATS off back-to-back wins.
Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Deion Branch, Bobby Engram.
Sit Em: Anquan Boldin (questionable), Larry Fitzgerald (questionable), Shaun Alexander.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24
Cardinals +7 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Over 44 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Seahawks 42, Cardinals 21.
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-9)
Line: Vikings by 9. Total: 39.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Vikings -2.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Vikings -3.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: 49ERS: OUT: QB Alex Smith, DE/OLB Manny Lawson.
I'm frustrated. I used to record every episode of NFL Primetime when Chris Berman and Tom Jackson hosted it. Seriously, I have every episode since
2002. When Berman and Jackson left to do the Blitz, I've recorded their segments during Sportscenter and taped the games they failed to
cover during the new Primetime. However, because listening to Merril Hoge is unbearable, I seldom watch the tapes, making my efforts futile. What I want to
complain about is that Trey Wingo, Hoge and company failed to cover at least six games in Week 13, including the Denver-Oakland and New York-Miami matchups. Instead,
they talked about the Patriots game for 30 minutes. This is extremely disturbing because NFL Primetime's hallmark has always been that it shows the
highlights of every single contest. How did they go about making the decision not to do that? Hmmm...
Trey Wingo: OK, guys, should we discuss the Ravens-Patriots contest for half an hour, or cover all of the games? Merril Hoge: Factor back...
Factor back... Factor back!!! Wingo: Interesting analysis. What do you think, coach? Mike Ditka: Viagra. Chicago. Cialis. Ricky Williams.
Cialis. Restaurant. Ricky Williams. Bears. Chicago. Viagra. Bears. Wingo: All right then, I guess we're talking about the Pats.
Hoge is horrible by himself, but can you imagine him talking about a game in which the Vikings are a 9-point favorite? This is unbelievable! Didn't they just
lose to the Packers, 34-0? Prior to last Sunday, they had been in my Bottom 10 the entire season. Now they're huge favorites because
they clobbered the free-falling Lions and the collapsing Giants? Give me a break.
Before I make my pick, I want to say that I could see Minnesota completely dominating this game. The 49ers are actually fifth versus the run, but Adrian
Peterson and Chester Taylor can run on anyone behind their massive offensive line. Tarvaris Jackson has improved tremendously over this season; he was
18-of-24 for 201 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. San Francisco is 22nd against the pass, so Jackson could break the 200-yard barrier for the
second week in a row.
Minnesota's greatest advantage in this game will be its ability to stuff Frank Gore in the backfield. All San Francisco can do offensively is run the ball,
which simply does not bode well, given that the Vikings are second against it. Their secondary, while improving, is still a bit questionable, but I don't
see Trent Dilfer taking advantage of it.
Despite everything I've written, I have to take the points. I simply do not trust Jackson as a 9-point favorite on the road. Playing on the West Coast is no
easy feat, which Minnesota may find out on Sunday. Plus, going against the trillions of dollars that will be on the Vikings seems like the right move.
The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
Not quite a Sandwich Situation... Maybe we can call this a Lunchables Situation. This contest takes place between two divisional games for the Vikings, though the opponents are the Lions and Bears.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Wow... Vikings favored by nine? The oddsmaker is calling them an elite team with that spread. And you know what? I still bet that there's going to be tons of action on them.
Percentage of money on Minnesota: 90% (78,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
Vikings are 15-23 ATS (9-30 SU) outdoors since 2001.
Opening Line: Vikings -7.
Opening Total: 39.
Weather: Sunny, 55 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Adrian Peterson, Vikings Defense.
Sit Em: 49ers Offense.
Prediction: Vikings 23, 49ers 18
49ers +9 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Over 39 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Vikings 27, 49ers 7.
Cleveland Browns (7-5) at New York Jets (3-9)
Line: Browns by 3.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Browns -3.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Browns -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Browns.
Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: OT Ryan Tucker, C LeCharles Bentley, LB Willie McGinest.
JETS: OUT: WR Laveranues Coles, LB Jonathan Vilma.
A very funny post by KClemens2008 in my forum. Following the Jets' blowout victory over the Dolphins, he wrote this in the largest font possible, "Suck
balls through a straw, Dolphins! You are owned." I never thought I'd see a fan of a 3-9 team declare his squad's dominance over an 0-12 club. It was
awesome, and I'd like to see more of this. It sort of reminds me of a second-grader picking on a kindergartner after getting beat up by an eighth-grader.
I fully expect KClemens to post something similar to that if his team beats the Browns this week. Last year, the Jets were a 3-point favorite in Cleveland,
but lost, 20-13, because a potential game-tying catch was ruled incomplete, even though it appeared tight end Chris Baker was pushed out of bounds. Justice
was served karmatically, as the same thing happened to Cleveland against the Cardinals on Sunday. The Jets don't care, however; they're 3.5-point home underdogs
and will be looking for revenge.
As I suggested last week, New York's blowout loss at Dallas didn't mean much. The play-calling was horrific, as Brian Schottenheimer left Kellen Clemens out
to dry on second-and-long on way too many occasions. Excluding that defeat, the Jets are 2-1 with Clemens under center, beating the Steelers by a field
goal, clobbering the Dolphins and taking the Redskins into overtime. When Clemens took over, I stated that I planned on taking the Jets every single week
until people realized how much better they are with their new quarterback at the helm. Well, I haven't wavered from that and I'm 3-1 against the number,
with Dallas being my only loss.
I like the Jets again. Even if Schottenheimer decides to inadvertently sabotage the gameplan yet again, Thomas Jones should be able to gain enough yardage
against Cleveland's 29th-ranked run defense to keep Clemens out of second-and-long. Clemens will torch a horrific secondary that gets no support from its
front seven (19 sacks). The Browns, meanwhile, will easily mirror New York's offensive production. Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr.
have been a prolific trio this season, and will easily expose one of the worst stop units in the NFL.
I can't see this game being a blowout. The Jets are much better than their record indicates and are thirsty for revenge. The Browns are the superior squad,
and should win, though I could see it going either way. With more than two-thirds of the cash on Cleveland, and the line dropping from -3.5 to -3 in some
places, New York looks like the right side.
The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
The Browns can't really afford to lose two in a row. They should have beat Arizona. A loss to the Jets would really put them behind the eight ball.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The public will still back the Browns, even though they're coming off a loss and the Jets just won.
Percentage of money on Cleveland: 81% (58,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Browns.
Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 102-72 ATS on the road following a road loss (Romeo Crennel 4-0).
Jets are 15-26-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 44 instances (8-9 under Eric Mangini).
Opening Line: Browns -3.5.
Opening Total: 48.
Weather: Cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr., Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
Sit Em: Jets Defense.
Prediction: Browns 34, Jets 32
Jets +3.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
Over 47.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Browns 24, Jets 18.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) at Denver Broncos (5-7)
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 37.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Broncos -7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Broncos -7.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: CHIEFS: OUT: RB Larry Johnson*. BRONCOS: OUT: WR Javon Walker, WR Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen.
It's time for more grammar lessons from from Emmitt Smith! Don't use these while visiting a friend in the hospital; doctors may diagnose you with brain
1. "He gets the ball over to their third read than most quarterback can." (Commentary: I think Emmitt forgot a word here, but at least he didn't say "He get
the ball over...")
2. "That offense does... do look good." (Commentary: He was actually about to say "That offense does look good," but changed what he said mid-sentence to
"That offense do look good." I'm speechless. How can someone be so poor at grammar? Did CATS really say, "All of your bases belong... All your base are
belong to us?")
3. "You hear Andy Reid going online and say, Donovan McNabb is my starting quarterback." (Commentary: It appears as though Emmitt is confused between
"online" and "on the line." Does this mean Emmitt uses America On The Line Instant Messenger to chat with his friends?)
The Chiefs have been dependable for years. It used to be close to a lock that they'd cover at home and falter on the road. Well, things are different this
year but I've finally caught on. As I alluded to in my Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Herm Edwards has
somehow managed to turn Kansas City completely around. The team inexplicably loses at Arrowhead but hangs the number on the road. Just check out the
numbers. The Chiefs are 1-5-1 against the spread at home and 4-1 versus the line as a visitor. I joked around and listed some possibilities on the Power
Rankings page, but I seriously have no idea how Edwards has managed to do this. But whatever. Let's just roll with it.
Denver won in Arrowhead earlier this year, which actually didn't make sense to me at the time. Now it definitely does. The Chiefs were hindered by Priest
Holmes, who compiled only 65 yards on 20 carries. Holmes managed just three yards per rush prior to retirement. Kolby Smith, who has looked impressive in
relief, has gained 4.1. Smith will gash Denver's pathetic run defense, which was exposed by Justin Fargas last week, setting up play-action opportunities
for Brodie Croyle.
The Chiefs definitely won't run away with a blowout like the Broncos did in the first meeting. Kansas City is almost as porous as Denver against the run,
meaning Travis Henry will trample a beleaguered defensive front that will get zone blocked to death. I also have more faith in Jay Cutler than Croyle.
With that in mind, I believe the Chiefs have a great shot to win this game. I never thought I'd say this, but they play better on the road. The Broncos,
meanwhile, have struggled as a favorite, going 4-16 against the spread in that role the past two years. Besides, only two of Denver's five victories have
been by more than a field goal. Everything, including the Vegas, points to Kansas City covering.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
These teams hate each other, so they'll both bring it. How much would the Chiefs love to close the door on Denver's playoff hopes?
The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Both of these teams have lost a billion games in a row. People will probably still take the favorite.
Percentage of money on Denver: 81% (46,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings.
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-37 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
Broncos are 2-10 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 12 instances.
Broncos are 4-16 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.
Opening Total: 37.5.
Weather: Snow showers, 30 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Kolby Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, Travis Henry, Brandon Marshall.
Sit Em: Both Defenses.
Prediction: Broncos 19, Chiefs 17
Chiefs +7 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
Under 37.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Broncos 41, Chiefs 7.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) at New England Patriots (12-0)
Line: Patriots by 10.5. Total: 47.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Patriots -14.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Patriots -10.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: STEELERS: QUESTIONABLE: WR Santonio Holmes, S Troy Polamalu. PATRIOTS: OUT: WR Troy Brown, LB Rosevelt Colvin.
More quotes from Emmitt. These, however, aren't grammatical errors. These were just either really humorous or asinine:
1. "I like the Eagles based on what I saw on Monday night." (Commentary: Emmitt was referring to the Eagles-Patriots game. It was on Sunday night; not
Monday night. Did Emmitt TiVo the game or something?)
2. "They're gearing up to stop the run. They put eight men in the box. Eight men... sometimes nine." (Commentary: Wow, that's some superb "analysts" from
Emmitt. I had no idea teams put eight men - or sometimes nine - in the box to stop the run.)
3. "You have to have the personality to match up with the Patriots." (Commentary: Just a hunch, but I think Emmitt means personnel; not personality. Unless,
of course, he believes it takes a Capricorn who likes to take long walks on the beach to beat New England.)
I hope they never fire Emmitt. He's awesome - almost as great as this game's going to be. It's a shame though that this contest can't be on national TV; we
haven't seen the Patriots play at night in a while.
Amid some controversy, I moved New England down to third in my Power Rankings. I found it interesting that this didn't sit well with the die-hard college
football fans on my forum, while the NFL fanatics agreed with it. It's the right move; the Patriots are playing terribly right now. As we witnessed on
Monday night, they cannot stop the run. What's even more disturbing is that they made Adam Joshua Feeley and Kyle Boller, two very pedestrian quarterbacks,
look like Pro Bowlers. The Ravens couldn't even score more than seven points against the 49ers and Bengals; yet they managed 24 versus New England.
It would be foolish to believe the Steelers won't be able to move the chains Sunday afternoon. They possess the ground attack Baltimore has and a signal
caller infinitely superior to Boller. Pittsburgh is very familiar with the Patriots, having played them multiple times over the past few years. In their
previous meeting, a 23-20 New England victory, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 216 yards and two touchdowns. The 20 points the Steelers scored could have
easily been more, as Antwaan Randle El inexplicably attempted to lateral to Hines Ward inside the red zone.
Something else that concerns me regarding the Patriots' run at perfection is their sudden inability to pass protect. Prior to the Eagles contest, Tom Brady
was seldom under pressure. Baltimore sacked him three times and forced him to throw early on numerous occasions. If the Ravens' aging and over-the-hill stop
unit could get to Brady, I have to believe that Dick LeBeau will put his defenders and blitzers in the right position. Now, I'm not saying New England's
going to score only 17 points. Restricting them to 27 is something I'm sure Pittsburgh would settle for.
I can't see the Patriots slaughtering the Steelers. I feel that this is either a tight contest or a double-digit Pittsburgh victory (something like 41-27).
I'm going with the former because I've seen Brady come through in the clutch dozens of times, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
A big game for both teams. I guess we can say this is Pittsburgh's Super Bowl. That's how everyone else is treating their tilt against the Patriots.
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
This line seems a bit high for a team that should have lost to the Eagles and Ravens, two of the 15 worst teams in the NFL.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (69,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Steelers are 20-8 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 28 instances.
Ben Roethlisberger is 43-14 as a starter (35-22 ATS).
Ben Roethlisberger is 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
Patriots are 37-23 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Patriots are 15-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 93-26 as a starter (75-42 ATS).
Opening Line: Patriots -13.
Opening Total: 52.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 35 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson.
Sit Em: Laurence Maroney.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Steelers 25
Steelers +10.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Over 47.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Patriots 34, Steelers 13.
Indianapolis Colts (10-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-8)
Line: Colts by 9. Total: 41.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Colts -11.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Colts -9.
Sunday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: COLTS: OUT: WR Marvin Harrison, DE Dwight Freeney, DT Anthony McFarland, OLB Rob Morris.
RAVENS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, LB Dan Cody.
Before I discuss game, take a look at my Week 14 Look-Alike Pictures
featuring Whoopi Goldberg.
The Ravens have been doing a lot of complaining this week. The ref calling Samari Rolle "boy;" the holding penalty on the Ben Watson route into the end
zone; and the game-winning touchdown that seemed to be incomplete. Chris McAlister said that it was difficult playing the Patriots and the officials at the
same time. Bart Scott, meanwhile, made a guest appearance on Monday's SportsCenter to whine about everything.
See, this is exactly why the Ravens are losers. Instead of dwelling over some bad calls, they should be more concerned with why they weren't able to play as
hard the entire season. If exerted as much effort into every game, they'd be 8-3 right now, at the very least. Instead, this Baltimore squad is
lethargic and full of itself. I'm glad it's 4-8. This team does not deserve to even have a shot at the playoffs.
The Ravens called the Patriots game their "Super Bowl." Well, now that they lost their Super Bowl, I guess their season is over. Baltimore left a lot on the
field, and the team won't be able to match the same intensity two weeks in a row. And why should it? At 4-8, it's clearly out of the playoff hunt. What do
the Ravens get for beating the Colts? A worse draft pick?
Despite what Baltimore did do the Patriots' scoring attack, I feel as though its stop unit is over-the-hill. Peyton Manning, whose offense has picked up the
pace the past two weeks, will torch the Ravens' archaic secondary, opening up some running lanes for Joseph Addai. Kyle Boller, meanwhile, had the game of
his life. Like A.J. Feeley, however, he won't be able to repeat his performance. I expect at least three interceptions out of him.
Easy call. The Ravens just don't have the energy or the mental focus to give it their all two weeks in a row. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't win
another game the entire year.
The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
The Colts haven't really looked dominant against anyone lately, so maybe they want to get back to that. This game does carry some significance for them, as they'd like to remain a No. 2 seed. The Ravens, meanwhile, have played their Super Bowl, so their season is over.
The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
There always be tons of money on the Colts.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 68% (57,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Monday Misery: Brian Billick is 1-3 ATS after losing on Monday night.
Colts are 26-18 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
Peyton Manning is 20-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
Ravens are 9-17 ATS as an underdog the previous 26 instances.
Opening Line: Colts -10.
Opening Total: 44.
Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Colts Defense.
Sit Em: Kyle Boller, Mark Clayton, Ravens Defense.
Prediction: Colts 41, Ravens 10
Colts -9 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
Over 41.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Colts 44, Ravens 20.
New Orleans Saints (5-7) at Atlanta Falcons (3-9)
Line: Saints by 4. Total: 43.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13): Saints -4.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13): Saints -4.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Saints.
Injuries: SAINTS: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister, RB Reggie Bush. FALCONS: OUT: QB Michael Vick.
Before I get to my Monday night dissertation, I want to mention that you can compete against me and others by picking
football games at the Picking Forum. You'll be able to pick every game starting Wednesday
afternoon, and you can post comments for each contest as well. No prizes, but you do get bragging rights.
Let's Face It, The Falcons Suck. They don't just suck. They really really really really really suck. Bah, you caught me again. I said the
same thing about the Dolphins and the Ravens the past two weeks. But as I've written many times before, I'm lazy. And the Falcons do really suck. Yeah, sorry,
I wrote the exact same thing about Baltimore last week as well.
Early in the year, however, Atlanta was a cover machine. It beat the number Week 2 (at Jacksonville), Week 4 (vs. Houston), Week 5 (at Tennessee), Week 7 (at
New Orleans), Week 9 (vs. San Francisco) and Week 10 (at Carolina), making them 6-3 against the spread going into the 11th Sunday of the season.
Unfortunately, the Falcons have been blown out the past three weeks by a combined score of 90-36. They went down at the Rams, who didn't have Marc Bulger, and
were clobbered at home by the Buccaneers and Colts.
Have They Given Up? I wouldn't say so. The Buccaneers destroyed the Falcons in part because Bobby Petrino foolishly made the switch from Joey
Harrington to the sloth-like Byron Leftwich. On Thanksgiving, Atlanta was actually competitive with the Colts and led for the better part of the first half.
A few dropped passes and Peyton Manning touchdowns put the game out of reach. Last week, the Falcons nearly came back from a 21-0 deficit when Chris Redman
replaced Harrington at the helm.
To make a long story more boring, Atlanta is still playing hard despite not covering since Nov. 11.
But This Means More To The Saints! True, but who cares? I go by the old adage, if a team needs to win, they're probably not that good anyway. New
Orleans definitely falls under the garbage category. I don't think the team can hang its hat on anything. Its best aspect is throwing the ball with Drew
Brees to Marques Colston, but the aerial attack can be erratic. Brees struggled against the Texans and Rams recently, both of whom have questionable pass
defenses. New Orleans' running game is non-existent, while its ground defense can also be inconsistent. And forget about the secondary; we all saw what Luke
McCown did to the Saints' defensive backs last week.
Besides, why would the Falcons just fall flat on their face so the Saints can win? There's a lot of bad blood between these teams. Atlanta wants a victory
just as much as New Orleans.
Team Profile. One strong argument you can make for taking the Saints is their team profile. If you bet on them when they've played on the road and
faded them at home, you would be 73-42 against the spread since 2000. Crazy, I know. That makes it really difficult to take the Falcons, though there is
something stronger pointing Atlanta's direction.
Line Movement. New Orleans opened up as a 5-point favorite. An honest line that could receive action either way - or so I thought. Despite there
being close to 80 percent on the visitor, the spread moved down to 4.5 on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, it was four everywhere. Why does the house want
the public to take the Saints? Much like last week's Monday night tilt between the Ravens and Patriots, there's shady line movement. And we all saw what
happened to New England.
To Make A Long Story Even More Boring... I don't feel strongly about either side, as what I wrote in the Team Profile and Line Movement sections
clashed. But I look at it this way - do I trust the erratic 5-7 Saints to cover four points? Not really. New Orleans is 3-6 against the spread as a
favorite this season. I know the Falcons haven't covered a nationally televised home game yet, but stating that the Giants and Colts are much better than the
Saints is an easy argument.
An E-mail I Received: I got an e-mail from Chris, who wrote something interesting: "Look Walt, there's no conspiracy here, I would have taken
the Saints, no questions asked up to -6.5, after that I 'might have had to think about it. I agree sometimes in regards to the shady line pushing the idiot
public in the direction Vegas wants, but sometimes you're hurting your overall record by thinking too much. As Emmitt would say, 'I's like Saints win on
Sunday nite.' Final score Saints 27 Falcons 17."
My reply: "You make a good point with your analysis. Maybe I am thinking too much. But I think line movement is an important aspect in handicapping. It
played a role in the Patriots-Ravens game when the line moved down from - 20.5 to -18 despite there being action on New England. I'll even go as far to say
that's more important than the matchups, because the matchups are built into the spread. If looking at matchups to handicap was so easy, Ron Jaworski would
be hitting 80 percent. Besides, who are the Saints to be favored by four on the road? They couldn't even beat the winless Rams or Luke McCown at home."
Sunday Night Update: I have to apologize for my horrendous performance this week. I'm in a major slump. After hitting at least 60 percent of my selections the first 11 weeks of the season, I've been dreadful the past three Sundays. Losing the Titans game the way I did was like watching pocket aces fall to 2-7 offsuit. And seeing the Jets blow opportunity after opportunity wasn't fun either. As I wrote, I am in a major slump. That said, Vegas also lost tons of money this weekend. I'll be more specific in my Week 15 picks page, but the books were 2-7 in publicly backed games. Because I make it an effort to side with Vegas, I was just as bad. All I can say is that I hope to salvage the final three weeks of the season and get back to how I was picking when I was hitting 60 percent. I'll add more to this selection tomorrow afternoon.
Monday Afternoon Update: I mentioned how poorly Vegas did in my previous paragraph. Heads will be rolling and people will be stuffed into body bags if the casinos don't recoup some of their money tonight. I have to believe this game will be played under special circumstances, if you know what I mean. I'm bumping this up to three units.
Monday Evening Update: And now I'm concerned... The line has been dropping all week, but now it's bouncing back in New Orleans' direction. I'm dropping the three units back to one, but I'm still siding with the Falcons because I don't trust the Saints to cover four on the road.
The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
The Saints need a win to keep pace with the other 40 teams in the race for the last playoff spot in the NFC.
The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
No one's betting the Falcons this week. No one.
Percentage of money on New Orleans: 84% (165,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Saints.
History: Saints have won the last 3 meetings.
Saints are 38-25 ATS on the road since 2000.
Saints are 24-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
Drew Brees is 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Opening Line: Saints -5.
Opening Total: 42.5.
Start Em: Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Roddy White.
Sit Em: Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood.
Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 21
Falcons +4 (1 Unit)
Over 43 (1 Unit)
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Anti-Public Parlay: Panthers +11 (bought 0.5), Lions +11, Dolphins +7, Titans +2 (bought 0.5), Cardinals +7, 49ers +9, Jets +4 (bought 0.5), Chiefs +7, Colts +10 (.5 Units to win 156.3)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running
behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned
about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)
Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times
has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)
Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm
expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)
More prop picks will be listed here.
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.
Second-half picks will be listed here.
Back to WalterFootball.com Home
Go to my 2008 NFL Mock Draft
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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2016): 2-2 (+$445)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2016): 2-0 (+$500)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2016): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2016): 0-4 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2016): $0
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-124-10, 53.7% (+$1,645)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-34-3, 55.3% (+$675)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-20-5, 50.0% (-$975)
2016 Season Over-Under: 119-138-1, 46.3% (+$95)
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$795
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,436-2,240-141, 52.1% (+$9,795)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 785-702-37 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 328-290-18 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 1,941-1,901-54 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 36-22 (62.1%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 8-8 (2014-15: 14-19)
Bears: 5-10 (2014-15: 14-17)
Bucs: 8-8 (2014-15: 18-14)
49ers: 11-5 (2014-15: 21-10)
Eagles: 7-9 (2014-15: 16-16)
Lions: 7-9 (2014-15: 19-13)
Falcons: 11-5 (2014-15: 17-15)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-15: 14-21)
Giants: 8-7 (2014-15: 14-17)
Packers: 10-5 (2014-15: 20-15)
Panthers: 11-4 (2014-15: 15-22)
Rams: 8-7 (2014-15: 16-15)
Redskins: 6-10 (2014-15: 20-13)
Vikings: 8-8 (2014-15: 20-13)
Saints: 12-4 (2014-15: 13-17)
Seahawks: 11-6 (2014-15: 16-19)
Bills: 10-6 (2014-15: 14-15)
Bengals: 3-12 (2014-15: 13-19)
Colts: 7-8 (2014-15: 14-18)
Broncos: 6-10 (2014-15: 18-13)
Dolphins: 10-6 (2014-15: 18-13)
Browns: 5-9 (2014-15: 16-13)
Jaguars: 6-9 (2014-15: 12-19)
Chargers: 8-8 (2014-15: 17-15)
Jets: 7-7 (2014-15: 17-14)
Ravens: 6-8 (2014-15: 17-15)
Texans: 10-6 (2014-15: 12-20)
Chiefs: 10-6 (2014-15: 18-15)
Patriots: 7-8 (2014-15: 22-14)
Steelers: 9-7 (2014-15: 18-14)
Titans: 10-5 (2014-15: 13-15)
Raiders: 9-8 (2014-15: 14-18)
Divisional: 44-47 (2011-15: 222-225)
2x Game Edge: 16-10 (2011-15: 86-97)
2x Psych Edge: 43-32 (2011-15: 151-133)
2x Vegas Edge: 23-31 (2011-15: 218-223)
2x Trend Edge: 41-30 (2011-15: 139-128)
Double Edge: 18-14 (2011-15: 59-61)
Triple Edge: 3-0 (2011-15: 3-3)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)