NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2018



NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 0-0 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2018): 0-0 ($0)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.





Chicago Bears (0-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 2.5.

Thursday, Aug. 2, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

The Ravens seem like a strong pick to kick off the 2018 preseason. John Harbaugh is 9-1 in Week 1 preseason games. We don't know what Matt Nagy likes to do in the exhibition games yet, but Baltimore has the stronger preseason quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin. They outclass Chicagos Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray by a wide margin.

By the way, I'll be running a live blog tonight during the game, so come check that out. No pick for the Hall of Fame game, but check out the live blog to see one betting implication of mine.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Matt Nagy is 0-0 in preseason games.
  • Matt Nagy is 0-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 28-12 in preseason games.
  • Adam Gase is 9-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Bears 10
    Ravens -2.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330








    Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
    Line: Seahawks by 1.5.

    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Pete Carroll is 7-1 in his previous eight preseason games. While we don't know if Frank Reich values winning these exhibition contests, we do know that Carroll wants to win. I'm also a fan of Seahawks' third-string quarterback Alex McGough. He's better than Brad Kaaya, so the Seahawks are worth a unit or two.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Frank Reich is 0-0 in preseason games.
  • Frank Reich is 0-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Pete Carroll is 22-10 in preseason games.
  • Petr Carroll is 6-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Colts 10
    Seahawks -1.5 -105 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$210







    Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
    Line: Jets by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    There isn't much of a record disparity between these two coaches, but the Jets will be giving lots of drives to Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater. They have a huge quarterback edge over the Falcons, who will be playing a decrepit Matt Schaub and an anemic Garrett Grayson Global.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Dan Quinn is 5-7 in preseason games.
  • Dan Quinn is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Todd Bowles is 6-6 in preseason games.
  • Todd Bowles is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Jets 24, Falcons 16
    Jets -3.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200









    Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
    Line: Pick.

    Saturday, 9:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    This is my August NFL Pick of the Month. Mike Zimmer has an impeccable coaching record in exhibition games, so I find it crazy that Minnesota happens to be an underdog. Sure, Vance Joseph was having the time of his life last August when he was 4-0, but he didn't battle any coaches who have great preseason records like Zimmer does. Plus, Minnesota's backup quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter, are better than Denver's Paxton Lynch.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 14-3 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 5-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Vance Joseph is 4-0 in preseason games.
  • Vance Joseph is 1-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Broncos 10
    Vikings PK (4 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$400







    Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
    Line: Cardinals by 2.5.

    Sunday, 1:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I'm glad Ron Wolfley will be back in my life during this game. I'm backing Wolfley's team, as the Cardinals will be looking to use Josh Rosen, who should dominate the Charger backups. I'm not in love with this because I don't want to back an unknown in Steve Wilks, but Arizona is worth a unit.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Anthony Lynn is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Anthony Lynn is 0-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Steve Wilks is 0-0 in preseason games.
  • Steve Wilks is 0-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Chargers 16
    Cardinals -2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100





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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 3-2 (2014-17: 32-33)
    Bears: 3-2 (2014-17: 26-34)
    Bucs: 3-2 (2014-17: 30-33)
    49ers: 2-4 (2014-17: 41-22)
    Eagles: 5-1 (2014-17: 35-32)
    Lions: 3-2 (2014-17: 32-32)
    Falcons: 4-2 (2014-17: 37-32)
    Cardinals: 1-4 (2014-17: 33-33)
    Giants: 4-2 (2014-17: 33-29)
    Packers: 4-1 (2014-17: 37-31)
    Panthers: 4-1 (2014-17: 33-36)
    Rams: 1-4 (2014-17: 37-26)
    Redskins: 4-1 (2014-17: 35-30)
    Vikings: 0-3 (2014-17: 36-30)
    Saints: 3-2 (2014-17: 31-33)
    Seahawks: 2-3 (2014-17: 34-34)
    Bills: 4-2 (2014-17: 33-29)
    Bengals: 2-4 (2014-17: 23-39)
    Colts: 5-1 (2014-17: 29-34)
    Broncos: 3-2 (2014-17: 33-29)
    Dolphins: 4-2 (2014-17: 32-29)
    Browns: 3-3 (2014-17: 26-33)
    Jaguars: 1-5 (2014-17: 29-36)
    Chargers: 1-5 (2014-17: 30-32)
    Jets: 4-2 (2014-17: 32-27)
    Ravens: 4-2 (2014-17: 29-32)
    Texans: 3-2 (2014-17: 32-32)
    Chiefs: 4-1 (2014-17: 38-34)
    Patriots: 2-3 (2014-17: 41-32)
    Steelers: 5-1 (2014-17: 38-29)
    Titans: 4-2 (2014-17: 30-31)
    Raiders: 1-5 (2014-17: 27-36)
    Divisional: 14-12 (2011-17: 312-312)
    2x Game Edge: 1-7 (2011-17: 126-127)
    2x Psych Edge: 12-6 (2011-17: 236-207)
    2x Vegas Edge: 8-4 (2011-17: 259-275)
    2x Trend Edge: 7-8 (2011-17: 207-192)
    Double Edge: 3-3 (2011-17: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 0-1 (2011-17: 8-5)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-17: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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