Titans (12-4) at Ravens (10-6). Line: Pick. Over-Under: 40.
Saturday, 4:30 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Titans by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Titans by 1.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Tennessee will be one dimensional in this football game, because Baltimore has the 3rd best run defense in the league, while Eddie George has not played well all year. Steve McNair, despite being hurt, will definitely play, and as usual, he'll have to do all the work for the Titans to win. However, Baltimore is 7th against the pass, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 66.2 rating. Their defense has sacked the QB 47 times and has registered 24 interceptions; both of which are incredible numbers. I would say that the Ravens have had Steve McNair's number; in their last 4 meetings, they've held the Titans to an average of 9.75 points and intercepted McNair an average of 2 times in their last 3 clashes.

An interesting matchup is Jamal Lewis and his 2000 yards versus the Titans' 7th ranked run defense. I'd say that Lewis has the slight edge, because his offensive line is monsterous, and he was able to move the chains against the Steelers, who are ranked 9th. Although Tennessee is 30th against the pass, I hope Brian Billick doesn't get pass-happy like he was against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night. They need to give Jamal Lewis the football over 30 times. If Lewis gets those carries, chances are, the Ravens will win.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • History: Ravens have won 6 in a row.
  • History: Ravens have won 3 of the last 4 at Baltimore.
  • Ravens are 20-12 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Ravens are 6-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Ravens -1 (open) to Ravens -1 (12/28) to Pick (12/31).
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 40 (12/31).
  • Weather: Showers, 54 degrees.

Prediction: Ravens by 6. Money Pick. Under.




Cowboys (10-6) at Panthers (11-5). Line: Panthers by 3. Over-Under: 34.
Saturday, 8:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): N/A
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Panthers by 2.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Like I say in my analysis, Bill Parcells is a miracle worker for getting Quincy Carter and Troy Hambrick into the playoffs. However, the road could end here for the Cowboys. Parcells will give Troy Hambrick as many carries as possible, but there is no way that Hambrick will be able to run against Carolina's 12th ranked run defense. The Panthers are 10th against the pass, thanks to their ability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They've accumulated 40 sacks this season, so Carter could be running for his life most of the game. Although Carter threw for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last meeting with the Panthers, I doubt he can repeat that performance in cold, rainy Carolina.

Dallas also defends well against the ground game, as they are 4th in the NFL. They held Stephen Davis to 59 yards on 26 carries in their November 23rd meeting. Davis should see similar production in this contest, and Jake Delhomme may have to throw on a few long yardage situations. Dallas has the top passing defense in the league, according to pass yardage allowed, so it's no surprise that Jake Delhomme was 9 of 25, for 169 yards in thier last meeting.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Panthers are 13-17 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Panthers are 2-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Showers, 50 degrees.

Prediction: Panthers by 4. Under.




Seahawks (10-6) at Packers (10-6). Line: Packers by 7. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): N/A
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Packers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
These two teams met at Lambeau earlier this year, and the Packers won 35-13. Both teams, especially the Seahawks could not stop the opposing running game. Green Bay allowed 5 yards per carry to Shaun Alexander, but since then, their run defense has gotten better at home. They allow 3.6 yards per carry at Lambeau, which would rank them sixth in the league. I do believe that Shaun Alexander will rush for about 80 yards in this game, but Seattle will keep making the mental errors that they've been making on the road, like dropping key passes. Remember, the Seahawks are only 2-6 on the road.

Overall, Seattle is 8th against the run, but looking more closely at that statistic, the Seahawks allow 3.9 yards per carry overall, but that number balloons to 4.2 away from home. Ahman Green should be able to register over 150 yards on the ground, while making things easier for Brett Favre, who will be throwing into the 28th ranked pass defense. Ever since the passing of his father, Favre has seemed unstoppable, and he could be dedicating this whole postseason to his dad. I don't want to get in the way of that.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Packers have only lost once at home in their playoff history.
  • Packers are 20-12 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Packers are 5-3 ATS at home this year.
  • Packers are 8-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Packers -6 (open) to Packers -7 (12/28).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather:

Prediction: Packers by 17. Double Money Pick. Blowout Special. Over.




Broncos (10-6) at Colts (12-4). Line: Colts by 3. Over-Under: 49.
Sunday, 4:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Colts by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Colts by 3.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Obviously, everyone remembers the meeting that these two teams had two weeks ago. Denver ran all over Indy in a blowout. Normally, I don't think a team can waltz into an opposing team's field and defeat them a second time, however, this could be an exception because the Colts are terrible against the run, and the Broncos didn't even have the services of their best player, Clinton Portis. Indy is 24th against opposing ground games, and if Quentin Griffin can accumulate 150 rushing yards, imagine what Portis can do. Jake Plummer will use Portis to create play-action bootlegs, where he will connect to his talented wide receivers downfield.

Last time against the Broncos, Edgerrin James was only able to rush for 42 yards. The Broncos have a top ten run defense so James could be in for another struggle on Sunday. Peyton Manning was also pitiful; throwing 12 of 23 for 146 yards and 3 fumbles. Denver held the ball for so long, that it distrupted Manning's rythym. Also to be considered is that Manning has never won a playoff game. Winning this one will be no easy task.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Colts are 14-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather:

Prediction: Broncos by 7. Upset Special. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 8-7
Eagles: 8-8
Giants: 10-6
Redskins: 11-4

Bears: 8-7
Lions: 10-5
Packers: 8-8
Vikings: 10-6

Buccaneers: 8-7
Falcons: 9-7
Panthers: 11-5
Saints: 6-10

49ers: 7-7
Cardinals: 9-7
Rams: 5-10
Seahawks: 8-7

Bills: 4-10
Dolphins: 8-8
Jets: 11-3
Patriots: 11-5

Bengals: 7-8
Browns: 4-12
Ravens: 8-8
Steelers: 10-6

Colts: 8-6
Jaguars: 9-7
Texans: 10-4
Titans: 9-6

Broncos: 10-6
Chargers: 8-8
Chiefs: 6-10
Raiders: 6-9

Divisional Games: 52-43
Trend Edge: 46-28
Game Edge: 35-27
Game & Trend Edge: 11-4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 1-4 (-$1,010)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 2-0 (+$1,000)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2014): 9-5 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (+$145)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-26, 55.2% (+$800)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 6-9-1, 40.0% (-$1,260)
2014 Season Over-Under: 89-69-2, 56.4% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$810

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-6
Bears: 5-5
Bucs: 8-2
49ers: 3-6
Eagles: 6-4
Lions: 3-6
Falcons: 5-5
Cardinals: 5-5
Giants: 3-7
Packers: 7-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 7-3
Vikings: 8-2
Saints: 4-5
Seahawks: 4-6
Bills: 4-6
Bengals: 4-7
Colts: 5-5
Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 6-3
Browns: 5-3
Jaguars: 5-5
Chargers: 3-7
Jets: 6-4
Ravens: 4-5
Texans: 5-5
Chiefs: 7-2
Patriots: 5-5
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 5-3
Raiders: 3-7
Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
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2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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