NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2013



NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 5-3 (+$470)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


New England Patriots (2-0) at Detroit Lions (1-1)
Line: Lions by 2.

Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Jim Schwartz has an awesome preseason record if Week 1 is excluded (10-3), so considering that he's coming off a loss, he'll motivate his team to victory. Bill Belichick is just 6-7 in Preseason Week 3 games.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 13-5 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Bill Belichick is 31-25 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 6-7 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Patriots 17
    Lions -2 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








    Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
    Line: Ravens by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Betting on Jim Harbaugh in the preseason is generally a lucrative proposition. He's 15-7 overall and 4-1 in Week 3. He'll want his starters to play well because they've disappointed. The Panthers, meanwhile, don't really care about this meaningless contests.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Ron Rivera is 4-6 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 15-7 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 31, Panthers 17
    Ravens -3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    It appears as though I'll be betting against Gus Bradley for many preseasons to come. His team has been outscored 64-16 in two games. Blaine Gabbert is out, so the Jaguars can't even use this as a real dress rehearsal. Chip Kelly has at least shown that he doesn't mind winning these exhibition matchups.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Chip Kelly is 1-1 in preseason games.
  • Chip Kelly is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Gus Bradley is 0-2 in preseason games (7-2 since 2011).
  • Gus Bradley is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Jaguars 10
    Eagles -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Houston Texans (2-0)
    Line: Texans by 2.5.

    Sunday, 4:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Sean Payton is wishy-washy about these preseason games, but he always takes the third week seriously. He's 6-1 in the third contest, whereas Gary Kubiak is just 3-4. It scares me that Kubiak has an 8-1 exhibition record since the new CBA, so I'll keep this to just one unit.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Gary Kubiak is 17-15 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 3-4 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean Payton is 17-2 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 6-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Texans 20
    Saints +2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 3-1 (+$620)
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    Last Week Over-Under (Week 2, 2017): 10-5-1 (+$250)
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    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-0, 100% (+$400)

    2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 26-23-2, 53.1% (+$70)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 8-6-1, 57.1% (+$390)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 2-3-1, 40% (-$675)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
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    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
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    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
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    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
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    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,465-2,266-143, 52.1% (+$9,185)
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    Career Over-Under: 1,963-1,915-55 (50.6%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 36-22 (62.1%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 2-0 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 0-2 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 0-1 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 0-2 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 2-0 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 1-1 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 1-1 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 2-0 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 1-1 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 1-1 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 1-1 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 1-1 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 1-1 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 1-1 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 0-2 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 2-0 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 2-0 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 1-1 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 1-0 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-1 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 0-2 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 2-0 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 0-1 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 2-0 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 2-0 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 1-1 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 2-0 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 1-1 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-1 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 6-3 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 2-4 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 5-6 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 4-3 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 2-4 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 2-3 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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