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NFL Weekly Predictions
Preseason Week 3



Note: Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers. Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Records of respective coaches are displayed under "The Trends."



Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Line: Jaguars by 3.

Thursday, 8:00 ET (FOX)

The Game. Edge: N/A.
Injuries: N/A

The Packers are 2-0 this preseason, but they've yet to play a coach who gets intense during exhibition games as Jack Del Rio does. Case in point: Green Bay smothered the Seahawks last weekend. What you may not know is that Matt Hasselbeck didn't even play. Jack Del Rio will demolish the Pack, who might be feeling a bit good about themselves after their blowout victory.

If you like the Jags, as I do, jump on it now before the juice spikes.

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Jack Del Rio is 12-6 in the preseason.
  • Mike McCarthy is 3-3 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Jaguars 24, Packers 16
    Jaguars -3 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Jaguars 21, Packers 13.



    New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
    Line: Chiefs by 1.

    Thursday, 8:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    I know I said I would never bet on Herm Edwards as a favorite again, so please shoot me now. Seriously though, I know I might be making a huge mistake here, but the Chiefs are winless and would like to get on the right side of the scoreboard for once. Edwards loves winning late preseason contests, while Sean Payton doesn't seem to care (see stats below).

    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Sean Payton is 2-5 in the preseason.
  • Herman Edwards is 17-9 in the preseason.
  • Herman Edwards is 5-1 in Preseason Week 3.


    Prediction: Chiefs 26, Saints 16
    Chiefs -1 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Saints 30, Chiefs 7.



    New England Patriots (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)
    Line: Pick.

    Friday, 8:00 ET (CBS)

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Bill Belichick hasn't really cared about winning in the preseason since claiming his second Super Bowl. John Fox, on the other hand, makes it his mission to go undefeated every year. The Panthers were embarrassed by the Eagles last week, so I'm looking for them to come out and redeem themselves. Jake Delhomme needs a solid outing to keep his job.

    I was wrong about this line movement. Get the Panthers now.

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Bill Belichick is 18-13 in the preseason (5-9 last 4 years).
  • John Fox is 16-6 in the preseason.
  • John Fox is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3.


    Prediction: Panthers 27, Patriots 24
    Panthers PK (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Patriots 24, Panthers 7.



    St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-1)
    Line: Rams by 1.5.

    Friday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Scott Linehan doesn't think winning preseason games is important. We don't have much data on Lane Kiffin yet, but coaches who have worked under Al Davis have had great success in exhibition contests. Kiffin, the youngest headmaster in the league, has a lot to prove.

    This line will likely rise in St. Louis' favor, so I'm going to sit back for now.

    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Scott Linehan is 2-4 in the preseason.
  • Scott Linehan is 0-4 in Preseason Weeks 2-4.
  • Lane Kiffin is 1-1 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Raiders 30, Rams 20
    Raiders +1.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Raiders 20, Rams 10.



    Detroit Lions (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
    Line: Colts by 6.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    I've made serious money betting against the Colts this preseason. Am I going to fade them again? Definitely not. Tony Dungy has shown he doesn't care about exhibition games - with the exception of Week 3, which is his dress rehearsal. Actually, Dungy's success in the third week probably has to do with the fact that Peyton Manning and company play at least a half.

    If you like the Colts, pound them now before the spread rises to 7.

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Rod Marinelli is 3-3 in the preseason.
  • Tony Dungy is 8-15 in the preseason.
  • Tony Dungy is 4-1 in Preseason Week 3.


    Prediction: Colts 38, Lions 24
    Colts -6 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Colts 37, Lions 10.



    Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
    Line: Ravens by 3.5.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Brian Billick is an easy man to figure out. Last week, I called him an ego-maniac, who texted his friends and family after thrashing the Eagles. In the wake of his loss to the woeful Giants, Billick undoubtedly went into hiding, eating out of dumpsters in alleyways and devising ways to beat the Redskins. Joe Gibbs, on the other hand, will likely be cautious after nearly losing Jason Campbell for the entire season.

    Jump on Baltimore ASAP if you like them.

    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Brian Billick is 20-13 in the preseason.
  • Brian Billick is 5-3 in Preseason Week 3.
  • Joe Gibbs is 5-9 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Ravens 20, Redskins 13
    Ravens -3.5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Game suspended; no action
    Redskins 13, Ravens 7.



    New York Jets (1-1) at New York Giants (1-1)
    Line: Jets by 3.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    If the Jets weren't blown out last week, I probably would have made this a 4-Unit play. Eric Mangini may be out to redeem his squad, but I'll take Tom Coughlin's preseason record in this spot.

    The Jets are receiving action, so wait on this number.

    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Eric Mangini is 3-3 in the preseason.
  • Tom Coughlin is 9-5 in the preseason.
  • Tom Coughlin is 2-1 in Preseason Week 3.


    Prediction: Giants 26, Jets 22
    Giants +3 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Jets 20, Giants 12.



    San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Chicago Bears (2-0)
    Line: Bears by 6.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Value. The Bears just got their Super Bowl revenge, winning the only game they cared about this preseason. Besides, who are they to be favored by more than three points over anyone in exhibition? I'll take the generous amount of points.

    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Mike Nolan is 5-5 in the preseason.
  • Lovie Smith is 9-6 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Bears 24, 49ers 20
    49ers +6 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Bears 31, 49ers 28.



    Cleveland Browns (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)
    Line: Broncos by 6.

    Saturday, 9:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Mike Shanahan drinks the blood of his opponents in weeks 3 and 4 of the preseason (combined 15-5 since 1997). I like this play even more considering he's coming off a loss. Besides, how can you not like Denver's starters over Cleveland's?

    Grab this one early - it could skyrocket up to 7.

    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Romeo Crennel is 6-4 in the preseason.
  • Mike Shanahan is 38-16 in the preseason.
  • Mike Shanahan is 7-3 in Preseason Week 3.


    Prediction: Broncos 30, Browns 17
    Broncos -6 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Browns 17, Broncos 16.



    Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
    Line: Seahawks by 7.

    Saturday, 9:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    I'm still not sure about Brad Childress' preseason philosophy - he's 3-0-1 excluding Week 1 - but something I do know is that Mike Holmgren loves to torture his opponents in Week 3 battles. Just check out the numbers below.

    I doubt this line will move off 7, but I'm not sure where the juice will flow. Right now, Seahawks are -7 -105 on bodog. I think that's worth taking.

    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Brad Childress is 3-2 in the preseason.
  • Mike Holmgren is 16-18 in the preseason.
  • Mike Holmgren is 8-1 in Preseason Week 3.


    Prediction: Seahawks 31, Vikings 20
    Seahawks -7 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Seahawks 30, Vikings 13.



    San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)
    Line: Chargers by 3.

    Saturday, 10:00 ET (NFLN)

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    The Cardinals are winless under Ken Whisenhunt, and I'm sure they'd love to secure their first victory with their new head coach. Small play on the home birds.

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Norv Turner is 5-5 in the preseason.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 0-2 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Cardinals 24, Chargers 23
    Cardinals +3 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Chargers 33, Cardinals 31.



    Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
    Line: Bengals by 3.

    Sunday, 8:00 ET (NBC)

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    This play is a late addition. I think the Eagles are going to be emotionally drained in the wake of Jeremiah Trotter's unceremonious release. Besides, Andy Reid doesn't really care about winning in the preseason. After thrashing Carolina last week, his team could be unprepared for the Steelers.

    I have to include a quote from my friend Ryan. While discussing Reid's completely uncalled-for release of Trotter, Ryan had the following to say, "Like Mr. Slave has Lemmywinks, Reid has cheesesteaks." Classic.

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Andy Reid is 13-21 in the preseason.
  • Mike Tomlin is 2-1 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Steelers 24, Eagles 17
    Steelers -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Steelers 27, Eagles 13.



    Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
    Line: Bengals by 3.

    Monday, 8:00 ET (ESPN)

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    With the Falcons players spending so much time talking about Michael Vick, it makes me wonder how they'll be able to produce a potent game plan against the Bengals. Marvin Lewis said he was disgruntled with the performance of his starters against the Saints, so look for Cincinnati to pounce on Atlanta early.

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Marvin Lewis is 9-9 in the preseason.
  • Bobby Petrino is 1-1 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Bengals 27, Falcons 10
    Bengals -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Falcons 24, Bengals 19.

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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
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