Bills (1-2) vs. Saints (1-2). Line: Saints by 1. Over-Under: 39.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
at San Antonio

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Saints by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Saints by 1.

The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Bills: OUT: OLB Takeo Spikes. QUESTIONABLE: OT Mike Williams. Saints: OUT: S Jay Bellamy, KR Michael Lewis. QUESTIONABLE: WR Joe Horn*, CB Fakhir Brown.

Although it's not their real home, the Saints' eternal road trip has finally come to an end. This is their first home game since the third preseason game in late August.

As you would expect, New Orleans is drained of motivation and energy, and consequently has been terrible against the run. How bad is it? Minnesota's Mewelde Moore, part of the last-ranked rushing attack in the NFL, compiled 101 yards on 23 carries. The Saints simply lack talent in their front seven. Buffalo's massive offensive line will push the tired opposition around, creating holes for the dangerous Willis McGahee, who is coming off a 140-yard performance against Atlanta on Sunday. The struggling J.P. Losman will be able to utilize play-action into New Orleans' shaky secondary, which surrendered 300 yards to a previously frustrated Daunte Culpepper last week.

It's becoming very obvious that the Bills miss defensive tackle Pat Williams. Their run defense, which yielded 3.7 yards per carry in 2004, is allowing 5.3 yards per rush this season. Jim Haslett should give Deuce McAllister as many carries as possible; Aaron Brooks was just 12-of-32 for 199 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against Minnesota's woeful stop unit. McAllister will be able to churn out massive yardage, but how will Brooks be able to throw against one of the elite secondaries in the NFL? Pro Bowl cornerback Nate Clements will be draped all over Joe Horn, who was limited to one catch Sunday.

New Orleans is finally "home" after a long road trip, so they should be able to do well, right? Wrong. Teams returning from a three-game road trip are 3-13 against the spread since 2000.


The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Teams returning home from a three-game road trip are 3-13 ATS since 2000. (SAINTS)
  • Line Movement: Bills -1 (open) to Pick to Saints -1 to Saints -1.
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 39.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Willis McGahee, Bills Defense, Deuce McAllister.
  • Sit Em: J.P. Losman, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans, Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth, Saints Defense.

Prediction: Bills by 9. (Bills +1). Money Pick. Under.




Broncos (2-1) at Jaguars (2-1). Line: Jaguars by 4. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Jaguars by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Jaguars by 1.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Broncos: QUESTIONABLE: WR Rod Smith*, CB Champ Bailey, CB Darrent Williams. Jaguars: OUT: S Donovin Darius. QUESTIONABLE: G Chris Naeole.

I was shocked when the Jaguars opened as 4-point favorites. Did anyone watch Monday Night Football? Did anyone see how the Broncos dismantled the previously undefeated Chiefs, 30-10?

Well, I guess the oddsmakers think people are very intelligent. The Broncos were able to light up the scoreboard Monday, because the Chiefs could not stop the run. However, the Jaguars are known for the complete opposite -- defensive tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson make it nearly impossible for the opposition to carry the ball effectively; Jacksonville yields just 3.9 yards per carry. In fact, they limited Curtis Martin to 67 yards on Sunday, and Shaun Alexander to 73 yards in Week 1. Mike Anderson will find it hard to maneuver through clogged running lanes, meaning Jake Plummer will be unable to utilize his patented play-action bootlegs. When the Broncos cannot run the football, Plummer struggles -- he threw two interceptions and fumbled once at Miami two weeks ago.

Despite acquiring bums from Cleveland's defensive line this offseason, the Broncos have been surprisingly proficient against the run. They are ranked fourth, surrendering 3.2 yards per rush. Like Anderson, Fred Taylor will struggle to gain positive yardage, placing Byron Leftwich in long-yardage situations. And, as Trent Green found out on Monday, you don't want to be facing third-and-long against Denver. A player on the injured list that you might want to keep an eye on is Champ Bailey. He could make a monumental difference in the outcome of this contest. Rookie cornerback Darrent Williams has played great thus far, but do you actually think a defensive back playing his fourth NFL game can cover Jimmy Smith?

Both teams will find it tough to move the chains, which means you take the underdog, right? Not this time. The Broncos are coming off a huge Monday Night victory against Kansas City, which followed a late-second win versus San Diego. Denver may not be mentally focused Sunday, because they have had one less day to prepare for Jacksonville.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Post Monday Night Syndrome: Teams coming off a Monday night victory are 11-20 ATS the following week since 2003.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 33-62 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; JAGUARS won in overtime.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 86 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Ashley Lelie, Jimmy Smith, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Jake Plummer, Mike Anderson, Rod Smith (questionable), Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor.

Prediction: Jaguars by 6. (Jaguars -4). Under.




Lions (1-1) at Buccaneers (3-0). Line: Buccaneers by 6. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Buccaneers by 8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Buccaneers by 10.

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: Lions: OUT: QB Jeff Garcia, FB Cory Schlesinger, CB Fernando Bryant. QUESTIONABLE: WR Charles Rogers, G Damian Woody. Buccaneers: QUESTIONABLE: S Dexter Jackson.

When you think of the old NFC Central rivalries, you come up with: Packers vs. Buccaneers, Packers vs. Vikings, Vikings vs. Buccaneers, Packers vs. Bears, and of course, Lions vs. Buccaneers. Well, not really.

Joey Harrington, meet Simeon Rice. Kevin Jones, meet Derrick Brooks. Roy Williams and Charles Rogers, meet Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. Does this seem extremely one-sided to you? After Jones is stymied by the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL, Harrington will be forced to throw in long-yardage situations. This will be a problem because Rice will completely destroy left tackle Jeff Backus. Opposite of Rice, Greg Spires will also have his way against right tackle Kelly Butler. Detroit could be shut out.

The Lions' run defense was completely humiliated against the Bears, when Thomas Jones rushed for 139 yards on just 20 carries. Now, Detroit has the pleasure of trying to contain Cadillac Williams, the league's leading rusher. Cadillac will trample the Lions' front seven, setting up play-action opportunities for Brian Griese, who will have the pleasure of dissecting Detroit's very mediocre secondary.

This game seems like it should be a blowout. However, the Lions will be looking to gain some respectability back after being walloped by the Bears in Week 2, 38-6. Also, Tampa Bay might be a little soft after its hard-fought victory over Green Bay.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Previous three meetings decided by 3 points (old NFC Central rivalry).
  • Statfox Trend: Buccaneers are a home favorite coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams are 11-24 ATS in that situation since 2000).
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 34 to 34 to 34.
  • Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 92 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Buccaneers Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Lions Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 4. (Lions +6). Under.




Texans (0-2) at Bengals (3-0). Line: Bengals by 9. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Bengals by 11.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Bengals by 12.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: Texans: OUT: DE Gary Walker. QUESTIONABLE: CB Dunta Robinson. Bengals: OUT: S Kim Herring. QUESTIONABLE: WR Kelley Washington, OT Willie Anderson.

Speaking of retaining respectability, Houston will attempt to do just that after respectively losing to Buffalo and Pittsburgh, 22-7 and 27-7.

Houston's inability to score has stemmed from the lack of talent on its offensive line, which has surrendered a mind-boggling 13 sacks in just two games. Luckily for David Carr's health and Dom Capers' job security, the Bengals are not proficient at applying pressure on opposing signal callers; Cincinnati has compiled just two sacks the first three weeks of the season. Another problem the Bengals' defense has is its run stopping ability. Domanick Davis should be able to eclipse the 100-yard plateau against a unit that surrenders 4.8 yards per carry. Carr, feeding off of Davis' massive gains, will move the chains after utilizing some play-action fakes.

While the Texans will be able to score, the Bengals will put up an even greater figure. Like the Bengals, Houston cannot stop the run; the team yields 4.4 yards per carry. Rudi Johnson will have a field day, running through wide-open lanes. Carson Palmer will take advantage of his placement in short-yardage situations by firing to Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh downfield. The Texans do not have a single cornerback who can defend either wide receiver. Blame general manager Charley Casserly for letting Aaron Glenn go.

The Bengals should be able to advance to 4-0, but this game will be closer than a lot of people think. Houston has spent its bye week listening to how bad of a team they are. Cincinnati is already hearing Super Bowl chants. The Texans have a chip on their shoulder.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Texans are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Line Movement: Bengals -10 (open) to Bengals -9.
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 42 to 44.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Light wind, 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson, Bengals Offense.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Bengals by 7. (Texans +9). Over.




Colts (3-0) at Titans (1-2). Line: Colts by 7. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Colts by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Colts by 7.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: CB Donald Strickland. QUESTIONABLE: RB Dominic Rhodes, RB James Mungro, S Joseph Jefferson. Titans: OUT: RB Travis Henry. QUESTIONABLE: DT Albert Haynesworth, S Vincent Fuller.

Remember the last time these two teams played? Peyton Manning threw for 425 yards, while Edgerrin James gained 105 yards on only 18 carries. Jeff Fisher was forced to call a multitude of onside kicks because his team could not stop Indianapolis' offense.

I think you know where I'm going with this. While the Colts have only scored 47 points during the first three weeks of the season, their lacking production can be attributed to playing two stout defenses -- Baltimore and Jacksonville -- and confronting Romeo Crennel, New England's former defensive coordinator, who knows how to contain the Colts. Now, Manning, James and Marvin Harrison are ready to erupt. The Titans are too young and simply do not have the manpower to keep Indianapolis from scoring more than 50 points on Sunday. Tennessee's young defensive front will be overpowered by a mammoth offensive line, opening running lanes for James. Manning will play-action, connecting with Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley, who will be covered by rookie Pac-Man Jones, Andre Woolfolk and Tony Beckham. Uh oh.

Tennessee will be able to keep pace with the Colts in the early going. However, Indianapolis may not punt in this game, placing a lot of pressure on Steve McNair, Chris Brown and Drew Bennett to score on every possession. Once the Colts are up by double figures, Fisher will be forced to abandon the run. McNair will consistently be forced to throw the ball downfield, meaning he will be sacked many times by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

This game is going to get ugly. Count on it.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • History: Colts have won the last 4 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current NFL coaches are 43-18 ATS as divisional underdogs of seven or more since 2002; Jeff Fisher 0-1 ATS.
  • Line Movement: Colts -7 (open) to Colts -6 to Colts -7.
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 45 to 45 to 46.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Light wind, 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Steve McNair, Drew Bennett, Colts Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Chris Brown, Titans Defense.

Prediction: Colts by 20. (Colts -7). Double Money Pick. Over.




Chargers (1-2) at Patriots (2-1). Line: Patriots by 4. Over-Under: 48.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Patriots by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Patriots by 6.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Chargers: QUESTIONABLE: G Toniu Fonoti. Patriots: OUT: RB Kevin Faulk, MLB Tedy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison. QUESTIONABLE: OT Matt Light, OT Brandon Gorin, CB Tyrone Poole, CB Randall Gay.

This matchup could have been last year's AFC Championship Game, if San Diego didn't melt under pressure against the Jets at home. Nevertheless, the Chargers get their first crack against the champs.

If you watched Sunday Night Football, you know what LaDainian Tomlinson is capable of. Tomlinson, perhaps the best player in the NFL right now, rushed for 192 yards and three touchdowns on just 21 carries. The New L.T. also caught six balls for 28 yards. But, if there is one coach who excels at taking a team's most vital piece away, it's Bill Belichick. And, it's not like the Patriots can't defend the run -- Willie Parker was restricted to just 55 rushing yards on 17 carries Sunday, and Stephen Davis was limited to 77 yards on 25 rushes two weeks ago. It's hard to imagine, but Tomlinson can be contained. He only rushed for 52 yards against Denver on Sept. 18. The Patriots will keep Tomlinson around 60 rushing yards, forcing Drew Brees to solve Belichick's defensive schemes from unfavorable long-yardage situations. Brees should be able to connect with Antonio Gates on occasion, but the Chargers will have many stalled drives Sunday afternoon.

Two things were evident in San Diego's 45-23 victory against the New York Giants: the Chargers can stop the run, but their secondary is feeble against the pass. In fact, Eli Manning carved up San Diego's secondary for 352 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots will have trouble running the ball with Corey Dillon in the early going, so look for Tom Brady to engineer time-consuming drives that will keep the Chargers' offense on the bench. There is no way the Chargers' young and beleaguered defensive backs can cover Deion Branch, David Givens, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk and Daniel Graham.

It's always fun to see if a new team can knock off New England. But, unless Brady suffers an injury, the end result will be the same: The Patriots will establish domination against yet another squad.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 10-21 ATS since 2002.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 33-62 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; PATRIOTS kicked a game-winning field goal with seconds remaining.
  • Statfox Trend: PATRIOTS is a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 11-24 ATS in that situation since 2000).
  • Patriots are 28-12 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Tom Brady is 59-15 as a starter (49-24 ATS).
  • Line Movement: Patriots -6 (open) to Patriots -5 to Patriots -5 to Patriots -4 to Patriots -4.
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 47 to 47 to 48.
  • Weather: Sunny, 78 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Antonio Gates, Tom Brady, Deion Branch, David Givens, Patriots Defense.
  • Sit Em: Chargers Defense.

Prediction: Patriots by 10. (Patriots -4). Under.




Seahawks (2-1) at Redskins (2-0). Line: Redskins by 2. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Redskins by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Redskins by 2.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Seahawks: QUESTIONABLE: OT Pork Chop Womack, DE Antonio Cochran, CB Andre Dyson. Redskins: OUT: DT Brandon Noble. QUESTIONABLE: OT Jon Jansen, K John Hall.

It's hard to believe that Washington is 2-0. They are probably the worst 2-0 team in NFL history.

That said, the Redskins still have a superb defense -- they restricted Thomas Jones to 31 rushing yards in Week 1, and Julius Jones to less than four yards per carry in Week 2. Washington has the league's third-stingiest defense against the run. Shaun Alexander will not have the 140-yard performance he had Sunday against the Cardinals. Instead, Alexander will be bottled up, forcing Matt Hasselbeck to throw against a lethal Redskins secondary. Seattle's offensive road woes will continue -- the team was limited to 20 points or less in five of its eight contests away from Qwest Field in 2004.

Don't expect Washington to score at will either. Seattle's defense, woeful against the run last year, is yielding just 3.4 yards per carry. Clinton Portis will be bottled up in the backfield, meaning Mark Brunell will have to put the team on his shoulders. Brunell was able to do that against Dallas, heaving 39- and 70-yard touchdown strikes to Santana Moss. Will he be able to do it again? It's doubtful, but the Seahawks' inability to stop the pass will assist his efforts.

The Seahawks are the better team, but they have three key things going against them: They stink on the road, they might be looking past Washington to their revenge matchup against St. Louis next week, and they are a Pacific team playing a 1 p.m. contest on the Atlantic Coast.


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 10-21 ATS since 2002.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: SEAHAWKS play the Rams next week.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 83 degrees. Light wind, 5 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis.

Prediction: Redskins by 6. (Redskins -2). Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




Rams (2-1) at Giants (2-1). Line: Giants by 3. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Giants by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Giants by 3.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Rams: OUT: OT Rex Tucker, CB Jerametrius Butler. DOUBTFUL: WR Isaac Bruce*. QUESTIONABLE: RB Steven Jackson*. Giants: QUESTIONABLE: WR Jamaar Taylor, OLB Barrett Green, CB Corey Webster.

Here we go again. The Rams are playing on the road, so how many points will they lose by this time? 10? 100?

The massive amount of yardage the Giants surrendered to LaDainian Tomlinson on Sunday Night Football was very perplexing, given the team's stalwart efforts in the first two weeks of the season. New York limited Deuce McAllister to 47 yards on Sept. 19, and the combination of Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington to 15 yards on 15 carries on Sept. 11. The Giants are most likely looking to atone for their hideous performance against San Diego, meaning they will put the clamps on Steven Jackson whenever he runs the ball. Not like it matters. Mike Martz calls a massive amount of pass plays. Marc Bulger will attack New York's porous secondary, and the Rams will move the chains. However, the Rams always seem to make errors on grass, which I'm expecting to happen Sunday afternoon.

After witnessing Tiki Barber run for just 60 yards last week, the Giants will undoubtedly look to establish the quick running back early and often. Doing so will work wonders against the Rams, who do not have the personnel to stop the run. Well, they can't stop the pass either. Barber's double-digit gains will enable Eli Manning to play-action and connect with Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer downfield. Although the Giants lost to the Chargers, Manning had the best game of his career, completing 24-of-41 passes for 352 yards and two touchdowns. Look for his positive progress to continue.

This preview can be summed up in three words: Rams on grass.


The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: RAMS play the Seahawks next week.
  • Rams are 8-19 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Rams are 6-14 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 47.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Eli Manning, Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer.
  • Sit Em: Steven Jackson, Rams Defense.

Prediction: Giants by 17. (Giants -3). Bonus Double Money Pick. Over.




Jets (1-2) at Ravens (0-2). Line: Ravens by 7. Over-Under: 31.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Ravens by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Ravens by 7 (Brooks Bollinger expected to start).

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: QB Chad Pennington*, QB Jay Fielder*. QUESTIONABLE: OT Jason Fabini, OLB Eric Barton. Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller. QUESTIONABLE: RB Jamal Lewis*, DE Terrell Suggs, OLB Peter Boulware, CB Deion Sanders, S Ed Reed.

Chad Pennington: out. Jay Fiedler: out. Vinny Testaverde: just signed. The starting quarterback for the Jets is Brian Baldinger? Brian Billick? No, make that Brooks Bollinger.

So, it will be Bollinger versus Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Chris McAlister and Baltimore's defense. Does this seem unfair to you? Shouldn't Paul Tagliabue intervene and cancel this game? The 32-year-old Curtis Martin is perhaps displaying the ill-effects of his age; the league's leading rusher in 2004 has not gained more than 72 yards in any contest this season. Baltimore will stack the line of scrimmage, forcing Bollinger to beat them. I smell a shutout.

Jamal Lewis ran for just 9 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago when the Ravens lost to Tennessee. Billick needs to establish some sort of a running game to prevent another upset. Whether the starting running back is Lewis or Chester Taylor -- the former is questionable -- the Jets will struggle to stop him. New York is missing defensive tackle Jason Ferguson, who defected for Dallas this offseason. With a wide open middle, the Ravens should be able to run for about 125 yards, which will negate some of the pressure on Anthony Wright.

It seems like the Ravens should blow the Jets out, especially since Baltimore is winless. However, an important rule of gambling is to never bet on the unknown. Truthfully, no one knows how good Bollinger will be. I must remind you that in 2002, the Rams first- and second-string quarterbacks were hurt, forcing Mike Martz to go with his young, third-string signal caller. His name was Marc Bulger.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Ravens are 4-2 ATS after a BYE under Brian Billick.
  • Ravens are 30-6 SU; 26-10 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Ravens -7 (open) to Ravens -7.
  • Total Movement: 32 (open) to 31 to 31.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Light wind, 5 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Todd Heap, Ravens Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jets Offense.

Prediction: Ravens by 17. (Ravens -7). Under.




Vikings (1-2) at Falcons (2-1). Line: Falcons by 6. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Falcons by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Falcons by 5.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: Vikings: OUT: RB Onterrio Smith, C Matt Birk, CB Brian Williams. Falcons: OUT: G Steve Herndon, CB Kevin Mathis.

It's hard to believe that a 1-2 team has control of its division. But, that's precisely what Minnesota obtained when they defeated New Orleans on Sunday.

Divisional control wasn't the only thing the Vikings managed to acquire in their 33-16 victory. They also found a running game. Unable to move the chains on the ground the first two weeks of the season, head coach Mike Tice called 23 running plays for the lightning-quick Mewelde Moore, who gained 101 yards. Sure, the Saints are weak against the run, but statistically, Atlanta is worse. The Falcons surrender 4.9 yards per carry, which is tied for the NFL's second-worst figure. Moore will be able to eclipse the 100-yard plateau for the second consecutive week, permitting Daunte Culpepper to easily shred a battered and bruised Falcons secondary. Minnesota's offense is back -- for now.

The Vikings' defense was great against New Orleans on Sunday -- Deuce McAllister was restricted to 63 rushing yards, while Aaron Brooks was only 12-of-32 for 199 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. But, that was just a mirage. The nomadic Saints were playing in their third road game, and were destined to lose. The Vikings still yield 4.9 yards per carry, meaning Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett will have a field day running through wide open lanes. Michael Vick will undoubtedly be able to scramble for massive yardage. However, Vick's ability to connect with his wide receivers downfield is still extremely doubtful. That could prevent Atlanta from winning this game.

This contest figures to be a shootout. With both teams constantly scoring, you have to go with the superior signal caller. And, if you do pick the Vikings, it helps that Atlanta may have one eye on New England, whom the Falcons battle next week.


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: FALCONS play the Patriots next week.
  • Line Movement: Falcons -6 (open) to Falcons -5 to Falcons -6.
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 45 to 44.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Daunte Culpepper, Mewelde Moore, Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett, Alge Crumpler.
  • Sit Em: Michael Vick, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Vikings by 3. (Vikings +6). Upset Special. Over.




Cowboys (2-1) at Raiders (0-3). Line: Raiders by 3. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Raiders by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Raiders by 3.

The Game. Edge: Raiders.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: OT Jacob Rogers. Raiders: OUT: WR Ronald Curry.

Is anyone surprised Oakland is 0-3? They hosted Kansas City, and traveled to New England and Philadelphia, the two participants of Super Bowl XXXIX. Now, the Raiders take out their frustration on a very weak Dallas team that should have lost last week. Cowboys fans: Run for cover.

Anyone who has watched Bill Parcells over the years knows that he will attempt to establish Julius Jones early and often. That will not work well, considering Oakland has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this year. And, it's not like the Raiders have been tackling Curtis Enis, Tim Biakabutuka or Troy Hambrick. They put the clamps on Corey Dillon, and did a formidable job against Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. Drew Bledsoe, confronted with a plethora of long-yardage situations, will have to put the team on his shoulders. Bledsoe will be able to move the chains, considering Oakland's secondary stinks and their pass rush has only generated two sacks in three contests.

How did the Cowboys manage to surrender 31 points to San Francisco on Sunday? They couldn't stop the run, and they allowed Tim Rattay to look like the next great 49ers quarterback. Dallas desperately needs to fix its stop unit, because the team will somehow have to stop Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and running back LaMont Jordan. That just won't happen; Jordan will stampede through the Cowboys' front seven, allowing Kerry Collins to play-action into a secondary that permitted 142 yards to Brandon Lloyd. If Lloyd can claim 142 yards, how many will Moss have? 7,844?

The Raiders are the better team, and they desperately need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. They cannot afford to start 0-4. They won't -- this is a great spot to take Oakland.


The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: COWBOYS play the Eagles next week.
  • Zero Win Alert: 0-3 teams are 9-6 ATS vs. winning teams since 2000.
  • Cowboys are 6-9 ATS as a road underdog under Bill Parcells.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 46 to 46 to 46.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson, Jason Witten, Raiders Offense.
  • Sit Em: Julius Jones, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Raiders by 14. (Raiders -3). Money Pick. Over.




Eagles (2-1) at Chiefs (2-1). Line: Chiefs by 1. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Chiefs by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Chiefs by 1.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Injuries: Eagles: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, WR Todd Pinkston, DE Jerome McDougle. DOUBTFUL: K David Akers*. QUESTIONABLE: QB Donovan McNabb*. Chiefs: OUT: OT John Welbourn, DT Ryan Sims, OLB Shawn Barber, CB Eric Warfield, CB Julian Battle. QUESTIONABLE: OT Willie Roaf, DE Carlos Hall.

A week ago, I apologized for writing Donovan McNabb was injured. He looked healthy in Philadelphia's 42-3 rout against San Francisco. Now, I apologize again for writing McNabb was healthy. The Eagles nearly lost to the Raiders, 23-20. McNabb has a bruised sternum and could have a sports hernia.

Even if McNabb plays, the Eagles will struggle to score any sort of points. Sure, Kansas City's defense looked putrid on Monday Night Football, but the team rarely plays well at Mile High, and they will be looking for some redemption after listening to the media criticize them all week. Andy Reid desperately needs to take some stress off McNabb by running the ball more. However, calling carries for Brian Westbrook is something not found on Reid's color-coated menu. Instead, McNabb will throw the ball about 50 times, and his passes will once again be inaccurate. Though they looked awful in Denver, the Chiefs' pass rush and secondary are much better than Oakland's. Philadelphia will struggle to score at Arrowhead.

Forget Larry Johnson. Dick Vermeil needs to get the ball in the hands of Priest Holmes, who received just 14 carries on Monday night. That's unacceptable. Holmes needs at least 25 touches, because he is nearly impossible to bring down behind his mammoth offensive line. Offensive tackle Willie Roaf, Kansas City's best offensive lineman, should be available after sitting out for two weeks. If Roaf plays, Holmes will rush for about 150 yards, setting up play-action for Trent Green. Though cornerbacks Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown will blanket Eddie Kennison and Sammie Parker, Philadelphia lacks a single player who can cover Tony Gonzalez.

Kansas City's humiliating 20-point loss on Monday night was the worst thing that could have happened to the Eagles. The Chiefs will be revved up to gain back some respect after their embarrassing loss. Remember, this game is at Arrowhead, where it is nearly impossible for opponents to win. The Eagles, who play poorly against AFC opponents, figure to get blown out on Sunday.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 33-62 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; EAGLES kicked a game-winning field goal with seconds remaining.
  • Eagles are 4-10 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -2 (open) to Chiefs -2 to Chiefs -1.
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 46 to 45.
  • Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 79 degrees. Light wind, 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs Defense.
  • Sit Em: Eagles Defense.

Prediction: Chiefs by 20. (Chiefs -1). Money Pick. Under.




49ers (1-2) vs. Cardinals (0-3). Line: Cardinals by 2. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 8:30 ET
at Mexico City

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Cardinals by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Cardinals by 2.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
Injuries: 49ers: OUT: TE Eric Johnson, OLB Jamie Winborn, CB Ahmed Plummer, CB Mike Rumph. QUESTIONABLE: OLB Julian Peterson. Cardinals: OUT: QB Kurt Warner*, FB James Hodgins. QUESTIONABLE: OLB James Darling, CB Antrel Rolle*, CB David Macklin.

The NFL's first regular-season game outside the U.S., and it's the Cardinals against the 49ers? Is the plan to make Mexico hate football?

Where did San Francisco's offense come from last week? A week after scoring three points against the Eagles, the 49ers ran and passed the ball effectively at home against the Cowboys. Unless last Sunday was a mirage, San Francisco should be able to move the chains against Arizona's terrible defense. The Cardinals are tied for the second-worst run defense in the NFL -- they surrendered 140 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 22 carries to Shaun Alexander on Sunday. Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore should be able to trample Arizona's front seven, permitting Tim Rattay to utilize play-action. Rattay was sensational against Dallas, connecting on 21-of-34 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. The Cardinals haven't been able to stop the pass in their first three games, and they won't be able to in Mexico.

Raise your hand if you thought Arizona was going to be an offensive juggernaut in 2005. Though the Cardinals added Kurt Warner and J.J. Arrington to a team that already possessed Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, they just can't get things together. The team has failed to score more than 20 points in any contest this year. In fact, Arizona only has one offensive touchdown. They will fail to run the ball once again, thanks to their woeful offensive line. Backup quarterback Josh McCown -- Warner is out -- will have problems moving the chains. Operating in a plethora of long-yardage situations behind an offensive line that has yielded 11 sacks this season is too much to ask from any signal caller.

Think the Cardinals are angry that one of their home games was stripped away and turned into a neutral-site game in Mexico City? This is the same situation the Saints were in when they played at the Meadowlands. They lost, 27-10. See where I'm going with this?


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: 49ers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Line Movement: Cardinals -3 (open) to Cardinals -2.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 42 to 42 to 44.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 60 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tim Rattay, Brandon Lloyd, 49ers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kurt Warner (questionable), J.J. Arrington.

Prediction: 49ers by 7. (49ers +2). Over.




Packers (0-3) at Panthers (1-2). Line: Panthers by 7. Over-Under: 43.
Monday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Panthers by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Panthers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: WR Javon Walker. Panthers: OUT: DT Kris Jenkins.

The Packers and the Panthers possess a combined 1-5 record, but don't think that this game will be boring -- both squads will both be looking for much-needed victories.

What happened to Ahman Green? Did Mike Sherman forget about him? The former Pro Bowl running back has yet to receive more than 20 carries in a game this season. Just as the Chargers made it a point to give LaDainian Tomlinson as many touches as possible, the Packers need to get the ball into Green's hands. Green needs the run the ball often, because the Panthers are missing Kris Jenkins. Without the best defensive tackle in the NFL, the Panthers surrendered 132 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries to Ronnie Brown. If Green gets more than 20 carries, he will easily eclipse the 100-yard rushing plateau, permitting Brett Favre to utilize play-action and screens. In other words, Green Bay needs to get back to the basics.

Like the Packers, Carolina should be able to run the football effectively. Cadillac Williams ran for 158 yards on 37 carries last week, meaning Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster should experience similar success. The Panthers' mammoth offensive line will bully Green Bay's small defensive front, allowing Jake Delhomme to shred the weakest secondary in the league.

Both teams should be able to move the ball in this close-scoring contest. However, Green Bay is 0-3, and simply cannot afford to start 0-4. The Packers are the wise bet, considering they are 8-point underdogs.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Panthers are 6-13 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or more since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -7 (open) to Panthers -7 to Panthers -8 to Panthers -7.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Clear, 68 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Panthers by 3. (Packers +7). Money Pick. Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 0-3
Eagles: 1-2
Giants: 3-0
Redskins: 1-1

Bears: 3-0
Lions: 1-1
Packers: 2-1
Vikings: 2-1

Buccaneers: 1-2
Falcons: 3-0
Panthers: 2-1
Saints: 3-0

49ers: 1-2
Cardinals: 1-2
Rams: 2-1
Seahawks: 2-1

Bills: 1-2
Dolphins: 2-1
Jets: 2-1
Patriots: 2-1

Bengals: 3-0
Browns: 3-0
Ravens: 1-1
Steelers: 2-1

Colts: 3-0
Jaguars: 3-0
Texans: 0-2
Titans: 2-1

Broncos: 1-1
Chargers: 1-1
Chiefs: 2-1
Raiders: 2-1

Divisional Games: 6-6
Trend Edge: 11-5
Game Edge: 2-5
Game & Trend Edge: 0-1


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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