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NFL Weekly Predictions
Week 15, 2007



Wow, I suck. I've been so bad with my selections since Thanksgiving, I couldn't even pick my nose right now. Seriously, given four chances, I could probably get my finger inside my nostril only once. That's how bad I've been. Then again, Vegas has lost a tremendous amount of money two of the past three weeks. Any time Vegas does poorly, I will as well because I try my hardest to stay on the side of the books. Check out the first paragraph of the Broncos-Texans write-up for a detailed description of how poorly Vegas fared last weekend. If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Denver Broncos (6-7) at Houston Texans (6-7)
Line: Broncos by 2.5. Total: 47.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Broncos -2.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Broncos -3.5.
Thursday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: WR Javon Walker, WR Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen. TEXANS: DOUBTFUL: QB Matt Schaub*.

All of the favorites covered in the late afternoon games, which should be an indication of how poorly the books fared this weekend. The word "poorly" is an understatement. It was a bloodbath. Vegas was hurt with Jacksonville, Cleveland, Seattle, San Diego, Denver, Minnesota, Indianapolis and New Orleans all covering. The only two contests the public lost was Dallas and Tampa Bay. That's 2-8 for the books, and even with the juice, that's bad enough to get people fired or stuffed into body bags.

I'd like to thank the NFL Network's commercial - the one where the two guys are talking about this game in a Boston diner - for bringing up the whole bit about how Gary Kubiak will pull out some shenanigans for Mike Shanahan, calling them Shanahanegins. Amusing, and also helpful. One of the angles I love is taking a coach or coordinator going against his former team. It worked when Ken Whisenhunt played the Steelers. It was successful in the two games the Giants beat the Eagles. And don't think Sean Payton's dominance over the Cowboys last year was a fluke. Kubiak knows Shanahan's tendencies, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of many players on the Broncos.

With that in mind, I see Kubiak running all over Denver on Thursday evening. The Broncos contained Kolby Smith last week, but they're still just two weeks removed from surrendering 146 rushing yards to Justin Fargas. Darius Walker looked solid in relief of Ron Dayne on Sunday, and should be able to gain about 100 yards on Denver's 30th-ranked ground defense, setting up play-action opportunities for Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels. The Texans definitely miss the former, but Rosenfels has been solid in relief; he was 27-of-36 for 209 yards and three touchdowns last week. Rosenfels actually has a higher quarterback rating (91.3) than Schaub (87.3), and their completion rates are identical.

Jay Cutler legitimately scares me. He's a bit erratic, but when he's on, he's impossible to contain. Cutler was 20-of-27 for 244 yards and four scores against the Chiefs last week. Then again, he threw no touchdowns and two picks, and completed only 50 percent of his passes at Oakland. If Kubiak is a competent coach and really knows Shanahan's tendencies - I'm pretty confident that he does - he'll figure out a way to prevent Cutler from torching his banged-up secondary. Then again, Shanahan can just run the ball with Travis Henry and Selvin Young; Houston's defense is 21st in that department.

I think by reading my analysis, you'll conclude that I think the Broncos are the better team. They are, so with that in mind, why are they underdogs? This line doesn't make any sense. They just destroyed the Chiefs, while the Texans were 3-point dogs to the Buccaneers. Basically, the books are telling us Tampa Bay is four points better than Denver, which is completely irrational. Would the Buccaneers be 7-point home favorites over the Broncos (three points for the host?) No way! Maybe they know something the public doesn't. My guess is the Kubiak angle I mentioned in the second paragraph. Houston will also be hosting its first night game in years, so the crowd will be extremely pumped. I love the Texans in this spot, so given the way I've been picking games lately, that probably means Denver will win by 30.


The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
Both teams need to win, but I think the Texans have a mental edge with Gary Kubiak knowing how to defend Mike Shanahan's players and schemes. The Broncos could be looking ahead to playing San Diego on Monday night.


The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
The Texans are favored? Why? The public will pound Denver.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 84% (142,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Texans are 8-18 ATS after a win (2-2 in 2007).
  • Opening Line: Texans -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels.
  • Sit Em: Matt Schaub (injured).


    Prediction: Texans 31, Broncos 24
    Texans +2.5 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
    Over 47.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Texans 31, Broncos 13.



    Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) at San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
    Line: Bengals by 9. Total: 42.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Bengals -3.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Bengals -6.
    Saturday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    Injuries: BENGALS: OUT: RB Chris Perry, DE Frostee Rucker, LB Odell Thurman, LB David Pollack, LB Rashad Jeanty. 49ERS: OUT: QB Alex Smith, DE/OLB Manny Lawson.

    An e-mail from Brad Cunningham: "Could u be any worse at picking games! Quit. Give it up. You are picking at about a 25% clip lately. Horrible. Ur killing my checking account." Thanks for the kind e-mail, Brad. Actually, I could be worse at picking games. The 25-percent clip I maintained last week can easily drop down to 10, or even zero this week! And by the way, I just figured something out. I'm Eli Manning. Seriously, I was hitting at 58 percent last year prior to Week 13 before taking a dive and finishing at 52.8 percent. This season, I was greater than 60 percent before Thanksgiving. Eli throws five picks per Sunday in late November and December, while I'm getting at least 10 games wrong every weekend. Meanwhile, my entire team (readers, in this case) have lost confidence in me; my demeanor makes it look like I'd be happier cleaning windows for a living; I'm watching my older brother hit at a 64-percent clip; while my dad is shaking his head in disgust and pretending that he doesn't know me. OK, maybe not the brother and dad part, but you get the picture.

    Did anyone else find it disturbing that the Bengals managed to score only 19 points against the Rams at home, and failed to cover a feasible spread with Brock Berlin quarterbacking the other team? It was downright pathetic that Carson Palmer couldn't eclipse the 200-yard passing mark playing a beleaguered St. Louis defense. That tells me how hard the receivers and offensive line are working right now. Cincinnati is pathetic, and it stems from all of the losers Marvin Lewis assembled onto one team.

    How can the Bengals be 9-point road favorites over anyone in the NFL? I know the 49ers are downright inept, but they have more to play for than Cincinnati does. They were just blown out on their home field and are huge dogs to a very crappy and dysfunctional squad. The Bengals, meanwhile, look like they're mailing it in, and are now being asked to get the job done all the way on the West Coast. Where's the motivation in winning this game?

    I like what I saw out of Shaun Hill, who replaced Trent Dilfer, perhaps the worst quarterback - starter or backup - in the entire NFL. Hill was 22-of-28 for 181 yards, one touchdown and one pick in relief last week. More importantly for San Francisco, Frank Gore will actually be able to get something on the ground, as the Bengals are much worse versus the run than the Vikings are.

    This spread is a joke. Could the Bengals win this game by double digits? Sure - but they don't deserve to be favored by so much based on how horribly they are playing right now.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The 49ers have to be set on rebounding after their blowout home loss to the Vikings, right? It doesn't appear as though the Bengals are playing that hard right now.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    No one in their right mind would bet the 49ers right now.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 88% (175,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Carson Palmer is 6-3 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Clear, 47 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Frank Gore.
  • Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Both Defenses.


    Prediction: 49ers 16, Bengals 13
    49ers +9 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 42 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    49ers 20, Bengals 13.



    Arizona Cardinals (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (6-7)
    Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 49.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Saints -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Saints -6.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
    Injuries: CARDINALS: OUT: QB Matt Leinart, OT Oliver Ross. QUESTIONABLE: WR Larry Fitzgerald*, WR Anquan Boldin*. SAINTS: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister.

    It's time for more grammar lessons from from Emmitt Smith! Try using these in front of your parents when you come home from college. They may sue your school for incompetence!

    1. "The Pittsburgh Steelers are not as good as everyone think they are." (Commentary: What is Emmitt talking about? I thinks the Steelers is good!")
    2. "He deserve to be coach of the year." (Commentary: I wasn't sure who should be coach of the year, but Emmitt really swayed me with that argument.")
    3. "This team have not played confident football in three weeks." (Commentary: Well they better start playing confident football immediately!)

    I can be an idiot sometimes. Actually, I can be an idiot all of the time, but that's not the point here. In last week's Monday Night Dissertation, I brought up an interesting stat. Since 2000, if you picked the Saints on the road and faded them at home, you would be 74-42 against the spread. Isn't that insane? Yet, I went away from that number, foolishly selecting the Falcons because of line movement. Not a horrendous strategy, but it backfired on Monday evening, when the line bounced back and soared in New Orleans' direction.

    So, from now on, I'm going against the Saints at home unless there's some sort of great angle that trumps it. I can't really find one here, although you may ask how in the world Arizona can beat New Orleans when it was just blown out of the water by Seattle.

    There's a huge difference between Atlanta's and Arizona's defense. The Falcons needed to blitz Drew Brees every single just to apply the slightest hint of pressure on him. Even when they got to him, they missed easy sacks. That won't be a problem with the Cardinals, who have nearly double the amount of sacks Atlanta has on the year. Also, as far as run-stopping is concerned, the Falcons (27th) can't really compare to Arizona (8th). I think it's safe to say that despite what we saw in Seattle last week, New Orleans won't be able to score at will against the Cardinals' defense.

    Arizona also has the passing attack that can take advantage of the Saints' ineptness in their secondary. Chris Redman didn't play that poorly on Monday; he was just plagued by at least six dropped passes, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Larry Fitzgerald and Jerheme Urban, who had six receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown last week, won't kill their quarterback like Michael Jenkins and Alge Crumpler did on national TV.

    There are two other reasons I think the Cardinals are a solid play. Despite the fact that they beat up on the Falcons on Monday night, and the Cardinals were ripped to shreds by the Seahawks, this line is only 3.5. Doesn't that seem odd to you? Shouldn't the spread be six at the very least? This line definitely isn't inducing equal action, as you can see in the Vegas section. Furthermore, I think there could be a choke factor playing in here. Both squads need to win, but New Orleans is the favored host. Everyone expects them to win. Given how erratic they've been this year, I can't say I really trust them at this point.

    Then again, given how poorly I've picked over the past three weeks, I don't think you can believe in me either. There are a lot of trust issues going on here; we should all seek a counselor to resolve this.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    If either team loses this game, they're pretty much done.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    Saints by 3.5? That's it!? New Orleans is coming off a blowout victory, while the Cardinals were just thrashed by the Seahawks. The public is going to pound New Orleans!
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 77% (135,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 103-72 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Monday Might: Teams coming off a 17+ win on Monday Night Football are 28-15 ATS since 1999.
  • Saints are 17-35 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Saints are 10-25 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Saints are 6-17 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals Defense, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, David Patten.
  • Sit Em: Edgerrin James, Aaron Stecker, Saints Defense.


    Prediction: Saints 31, Cardinals 30
    Cardinals +3.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 49 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Saints 31, Cardinals 24.



    Atlanta Falcons (3-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
    Line: Buccaneers by 12.5. Total: 38.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Buccaneers -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Buccaneers -12.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Injuries: FALCONS: OUT: QB Michael Vick.

    BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Cadillac Williams, RB Michael Pittman, OT Luke Petitgout, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Torrie Cox.

    More quotes from Emmitt. These, however, aren't grammatical errors. These were just either really humorous or asinine:

    1. "A reason they don't want to repeat what they did last year, they don't want to look really bad down the stretch." (Commentary: So, actually losing games down the stretch doesn't really matter - just as long as they don't look bad?)
    2. "Defensively, they're solid. They have solid defenses. " (Commentary: From the redundancy department of the department of redundancy.)
    3. "Eli Manning has been given the rice of passage." (Commentary: Damn it, why haven't I been given the rice of passage?)

    Good riddance, Bobby Petrino. I have little respect for coaches who change jobs often, always looking for more money and a greater opportunity for themselves when they've already had one. Petrino had something great in Louisville. They would have built a statue of him if he stayed there his entire career. Instead, he turned his back on his players, bolted for the NFL and got what he deserved. Now, after 14 weeks of failure, he's off to Arkansas, where he will once again betray his recruits when he gets a better opportunity. I have no idea why the Razorbacks hired this classless jerk; he is not to be trusted.

    Of course, when a coach gets hired or resigns, you have to look at similar situations to get a feel for how the team will play the following week. Well, the last three head coaches in the NFL to get the mid-season ax - Dave Wannstedt, Butch Davis and Steve Mariucci - all watched their former team struggle the ensuing Sunday. None of them covered, and it's an obvious reason why; the players have no idea whom to listen to, while the coaches are too busy with their new agendas to produce an effective gameplan.

    Not that an effective gameplan would have given the Falcons a victory or a cover here anyway. Chris Redman and his drop-happy receivers against Tampa Bay's pass defense? Mismatch. Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood versus the league's sixth-ranked rush defense? Mismatch. A Jeff Garcia-to-Joey Galloway connection playing a back seven that can't stop anyone? Mismatch. Earnest Graham pummeling his way through a front seven that is 27th against the run? Mismatch.

    Easy blowout. Besides the whole coaching and mismatch angles, the Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South with a victory. And they'll have no problem doing it, unless, of course, they become cursed in the wake of my picking them this week.


    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South with a win. They can't count on the Saints losing to the Cardinals, Eagles or Bears.


    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    No one in their right mind would take the Falcons right now.
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 66% (141,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • History: Buccaneers have won 10 of the last 14 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-40 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
  • Crappy Quarterback: Chris Redman is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Monday Misery: Teams coming off a 17+ loss on Monday Night Football are 11-25 ATS since 1999.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -11.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 22 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Earnest Graham, Joey Galloway, Buccaneers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Falcons Offense and Defense.


    Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Falcons 0
    Buccaneers -12.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 38 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Buccaneers 37, Falcons 3.



    Baltimore Ravens (4-9) at Miami Dolphins (0-13)
    Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Ravens -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Ravens -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: RAVENS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, LB Dan Cody. DOLPHINS: OUT: QB Trent Green, S Yeremiah Bell.

    You know you should be placed in a psychiatric ward if you start having nightmares about fantasy football. I made the playoffs in three of my five leagues, and in one of my postseason matchups, I had three players - Steven Jackson, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh - going in one game. I dreamt that Rudi Johnson scored all of the touchdown for the Bengals, who were actually trailing the Rams, thanks to Brock Berlin who had five touchdowns - all to Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. I woke up in a cold sweat. I'm dead serious. I really need help. Well, you can imagine what I was going through while watching the two Bengal receivers and the Ram runner combine for 203 total yards and no touchdowns. Twenty fantasy points. I thought I was doomed. Luckily, LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers, Wes Welker and Tennessee's defense carried me to a 110-82 victory. My opponent had Adrian Peterson, who didn't do anything. Phew. No nervous breakdown this week.

    Speaking of nightmares, I loved the headline of a story on Miami Herald's Web site: "This clearly is franchise's worst season." No, really? I thought the Dolphins were having a decent season! This is exactly why newspapers are going down the drain and losing millions of dollars every year; the quality of journalism sucks; the writers are old and cannot relate to younger readers; and there's a glaring lack of creativity. But that's another argument for another time.

    A better headline would have been "Worst team of all time?", "Boller to shred Miami's defense like Trent Edwards?" or "Beck and Ginn to turn it over 400 times again?" Watching the Dolphins-Bills contest was disturbing, as I had Miami for five units. What a crappy pick that was. Anyway, Ted Ginn muffed a punt in the first quarter, setting up an easy Buffalo touchdown. A few minutes later, John Beck basically handed the ball to a Bills defender, who scored easily. 21-0, just like that.

    If this were a previous version of Baltimore's defense, I'd state that the Ravens would create just as much havoc as Buffalo did. But their stop unit stinks; the secondary is banged up, the front seven can't get much pressure (25 sacks) and many players, including Ray Lewis, are over the hill. We've seen offenses like the Bills, Jets and Cardinals carve Baltimore up with slow, methodical drives. There's a chance Miami can do that with Cleo Lemon under center. If John Beck's named the starter, however, it could once again be 21-0 a few minutes into the game.

    Let's hope Cam Cameron is smarter about his quarterback controversy than Brian Billick is. Billick once again named Kyle Boller the starter. Seriously, I'm convinced these two are star-crossed lovers at this point. Why not play Troy Smith to see what you have prior to spending a draft pick on a signal caller? Billick's either dumb or madly in love. But whatever, picking this game becomes a bit easier, as Boller is a turnover machine. The Dolphins, who will be playing out of their minds in an attempt to avoid starting 0-14, which would match the 1976 Buccaneers' mark of futility, will overpower the Ravens' mediocre offensive front, forcing Boller into some picks and fumbles.

    This is it. I can feel it. The Dolphins will win. If they don't, they'll only have one chance to escape from 0-16. As bad as Miami is, I don't have much faith in a Baltimore squad that played hard only a handful of times this year. The Ravens just had their Super Bowl two weeks ago, so their season is essentially over. The Dolphins have much more to play for. Oh, and by the way, I'd like to apologize to Miami fans ahead of time. My picks have sucked, meaning the Ravens are going to jump out to a 35-3 lead at halftime. My bad.


    The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
    Are the Dolphins playing hard? It didn't seem like they were against the Bills. They better start if they want to avoid being the first team in NFL history to start worse than 0-14. Baltimore, meanwhile, is two weeks removed from its Super Bowl, so I'm guessing half the team is on vacation because this is the offseason.


    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    The Dolphins won't be getting any action; I think people still believe in the Ravens squad that nearly beat the Patriots.
  • Percentage of money on Baltimore: 71% (135,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 8-3 ATS since 2000.
  • Ravens are 12-6 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 18 instances.
  • Ravens are 10-18 ATS as an underdog the previous 28 instances.
  • Dolphins are 8-3 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 11 instances.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Possible showers, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Dolphins Defense, Willis McGahee.
  • Sit Em: Kyle Boller.


    Prediction: Dolphins 17, Ravens 14
    Dolphins +3.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 37 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Dolphins 22, Ravens 16.



    Buffalo Bills (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (8-5)
    Line: Browns by 5.5. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Browns -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Browns -4.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bills.
    Injuries: BILLS: OUT: WR Peerless Price, TE Kevin Everett, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Jason Webster. BROWNS: OUT: OT Ryan Tucker, C LeCharles Bentley, LB Willie McGinest.

    Let's take this opportunity to thank Lowe's for single-handedly increasing the divorce rate in this country. Think of that commercial where some idiot asks a Lowe's employee to pretend to be his wife. He can't seem to please this woman until he pulls out a gift card. Question: What could an average woman buy at Lowe's? Now, every single poor, misguided guy in this nation will go to Lowe's to shop for a Christmas present for his wife. And upon seeing a gift certificate to a store they don't want to go to, the wives will leave their husbands. And all of because of that moron who thought a lawn mower would please his woman. You schmuck, go to a jewelry store!

    Finally, another game on this week's slate that actually means something. It's really a shame that both of these teams can't go to the playoffs. You can't say enough about the job Derek Anderson has done this year. He came out of nowhere to throw for more than 3,200 yards, 26 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions. The Browns must keep him; they have no idea what they're going to get out of Brady Quinn. If they let Anderson go, they could have a Philip Rivers-type situation on their hands. Meanwhile, Jamal Lewis has also shocked the NFL world. Everyone thought he should have been put out to pasture, but the rugged back has gained 921 rushing yards at a 4.2 clip this season. And how can you defend Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr.?

    Trent Edwards, meanwhile, has been exceptional for a rookie. Since taking over for J.P. "Girly-Voice Man" Losman, he's 33-of-59, 422 yards, four touchdowns and no picks. Marshawn Lynch, the team's other first-year player, is closing in on 1,000 yards despite missing a few games. And like the Browns, Buffalo has a legitimate and sometimes unstoppable No. 1 receiver in Lee Evans.

    So, who has the edge in this virtual play-in game? I'd have to point to the Bills. I think their opportunistic defense is playing much better right now. They're slightly stronger versus the pass than Cleveland, but the big difference is run defense. While the Browns are 26th in that category, Buffalo, once ranked in the bottom five at stopping opposing backs, is now 18th. The stop unit is improving every single week, which is remarkable considering all of the injuries it has sustained.

    Besides the defensive edge, I feel as though there's a lot of pressure on the Browns in this spot. Sure, both teams need a victory, but Cleveland is playing at home and is favored. They're expected to win, which could be a bit much to ask from an extremely young squad with no postseason experience.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The winner gets the sixth spot in the AFC. The loser is done. Game on.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    I could see there being equal action here, though it wouldn't shock me if the public backed the Browns.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 75% (153,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Bills are 14-7 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
  • Bills are 2-18 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.
  • Browns are 4-12 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Browns -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Snow, 27 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 26 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr.
  • Sit Em: Jamal Lewis, Browns Defense.


    Prediction: Bills 17, Browns 14
    Bills +5.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 37.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Browns 8, Bills 0.



    Green Bay Packers (11-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-10)
    Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Packers -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Packers -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: PACKERS: OUT: RB DeShawn Wynn, S Nick Collins. RAMS: OUT: OT Orlando Pace, DE Leonard Little, CB Tye Hill.

    The announcer guy on ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown (or NFL Sunday Countdown if you're Keyshawn Johnson), asked, "If Brett Favre were a comic-book hero, who would he be? Duh - Claire Bennet from Heroes! If she were a quarterback in the NFL, not only would she be the hottest player at the position, she wouldn't miss any games. Favre will be starting his 251st consecutive contest this week, so I'm convinced he has regenerative abilities. And speaking of Heroes, this writer's strike better end soon. I have a bad feeling that the networks will hire mediocre writers to churn out bland episodes. I just hope they don't hire my cousin Lev. He's not a Harry Potter fan whatsoever, but upon seeing the fifth movie with me and other family members, he predicted the plot for the sixth film: "Harry and Hermione have sex, and Harry will contract AIDS, which he then will transmit to that ugly wizard guy and kill him for good." Actually, now that I think about it, I'd love to hear some more of Lev's movie ideas. That's pretty awesome.

    Too bad we can't give Marc Bulger some of Claire's blood. When asked whom he planned on starting at quarterback against the Packers, Scott Linehan basically told reporters to get back to him on Friday. Bulger may not be ready after the concussion he suffered two weeks ago against the Seahawks. Gus Frerotte, meanwhile, is still nursing an injured shoulder, so if he and Bulger can't go, Brock Berlin will make his second career start. Berlin performed admirably Sunday, given the situation, going 17-of-28 for 153 yards and an interception. More importantly, Berlin kept St. Louis in the game. That said, he was playing the Bengals. Not exactly the best defense, or the most focused team in the league.

    The Packers look like a team on a mission. They're 10-2-1 against the spread this year, being a thorn in Vegas' side. I found it funny that the books panicked upon seeing tons of action on Green Bay again; this line opened at eight and quickly rose to 10. Brett Favre's success is well documented, but the Packers are a dangerous team because Ryan Grant is running the ball exceptionally well, gaining an unbelievable five yards per carry. Where did this guy come from? Grant will trample St. Louis' weak front seven, which is ranked 29th versus opposing ground attacks. Unlike Cincinnati, Green Bay's fully dimensional offense can exploit the ineptness of the Rams' stop unit.

    It's hard to say what the Rams will do on offense because we don't know who the starter will be. If Bulger gets the nod, the Packers' defense will be focused. If Berlin is the man, Green Bay will eat him alive. Thus, St. Louis' best shot to win and cover this game is if Frerotte starts. And that's not even much of a chance.

    Other than talent disparity, I can't really find an edge on either side, excluding how well Green Bay has done against the spread, and the line movement heading its way. Actually, an extremely strong edge you may want to consider is that I like the Packers, so the Rams will probably pull the upset.

    Friday Update: The line has dropped from -9.5 to -8.5 because Marc Bulger is now likely to start. As I mentioned earlier, this will only keep the Packers focused.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    Why are the Packers playing this game? They're the two-seed, no matter what. The Rams look like they're trying.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    The Packers have been burning the books all year. As the line movement indicates, looks like they're scared.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 84% (176,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Marc Bulger is 5-2 ATS as a home dog. ???
  • Opening Line: Packers -8.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Packers Defense, Torry Holt.
  • Sit Em: Steven Jackson, Rams Defense.


    Prediction: Packers 38, Rams 17
    Packers -7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 45 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 33, Rams 14.



    Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-4)
    Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 35.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Steelers -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Steelers -3.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: STEELERS: QUESTIONABLE: WR Santonio Holmes, S Troy Polamalu.

    I think I've been briefly mentioning Keyshawn Johnson's "NFL Sunday Countdown" gaff (we're counting down to Sunday!) repeatedly the past few weeks. Well, last week on Sunday NFL Countdown (or NFL Sunday Countdown if you're Keyshawn Johnson), Key had the following to say about the Patriots: "The Patriots are looking to go 16-0. They really are." Really? They're going for 16-0? I had no idea! If it weren't for Keyshawn, I'd think New England's goal was gunning for a 13-3 record. But wow, 16-0? That's nuts - but not as crazy as his other bizarre quote: "[Bill Belichick] may win coach of the year, but he definitely won't be Sportsman of the Year... And that's funny." Well, I'm glad Keyshawn isn't afraid to point out his punchlines. Could you imagine Jerry Seinfeld or some other comedian performing his act on stage and saying, "And that's funny" after every single joke?

    Ready for a crazy stat? The last time the Jaguars didn't cover the spread with David Garrard playing quarterback for the entire game was Week 2. Week 2! As Carl Winslow would say, "Holy meatball!" And that's funny!

    I have a feeling Jacksonville will continue its covering streak today. The Steelers brought everything to the table against the Patriots, with backup safeties guaranteeing victories and the like. Well, they fell short, so I don't know how they get up for the Jaguars here. I know Pittsburgh still needs to win its division, but it's still two games in front of the Browns, thanks to tie-breakers.

    Pittsburgh's attempts to run the ball will be thwarted by the Jaguars' excellent front seven, which is ranked ninth in defending ground attacks. Ben Roethlisberger will be forced to move the chains on his own, battling a rabid front seven that has 27 sacks, and an opportunistic secondary that has picked off 16 passes this year. Jacksonville will also have problems moving the chains, as the Steelers will put the clamps on Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. But as we saw in the Patriots game, Pittsburgh's secondary can be exploited when Troy Polamalu isn't in the lineup. Even if Polamalu plays, will he be 100 percent? He couldn't go against New England, which tells me he isn't ready to return.

    With Pittsburgh unlikely to fully recover from getting blown out by the Patriots, I'm going to keep riding the Jaguars train. Unfortunately, given how crappy my picks have been since Thanksgiving, it's likely the train will be derailed, raided by bandits and blown up by a rocket.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    This is a game between two of the better teams in the NFL, but what does the winner really get? Both teams are already in the playoffs. With that in mind, how do the Steelers play hard after putting everything they had into the Patriots game.


    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    Should be equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 69% (157,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Jaguars are 8-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Steelers are 15-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 43-15 as a starter (35-23 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Snow, 30 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 21 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: David Garrard, Reggie Williams, Hines Ward, Heath Miller.
  • Sit Em: Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, Willie Parker.


    Prediction: Jaguars 14, Steelers 10
    Jaguars +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 35 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Jaguars 29, Steelers 22.



    New York Jets (3-10) at New England Patriots (13-0)
    Line: Patriots by 21. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Patriots -25.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Patriots -29 or No Line.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.
    Injuries: JETS: OUT: WR Laveranues Coles, LB Jonathan Vilma. PATRIOTS: OUT: WR Troy Brown, LB Rosevelt Colvin.

    If you're a fan who's angry that your team's recent victories has ruined its draft position, think again. In his weekly picks column, Bill Simmons brought up something extremely interesting. Check out all of the busts who were chosen in the top five between 1998 and 2003: Ryan Leaf. Andre Wadsworth. Curtis Enis. Tim Couch. Akili Smith. Ricky Williams (talented, but mentally inept). Courtney Brown. Peter Warrick. Michael Vick (in jail). Gerard Warren. David Carr. Joey Harrington. Mike Williams. Charles Rogers. Lindsay Lohan. How can the top five be such a crapshoot? How can the NFL be comprised of so many inept GMs? And how can a super-hot girl (think Mean Girls ) turn into a chain-smoking, DUI-penalized bimbo who sleeps with anyone who has two legs?

    With that in mind, don't worry Jets fans... If you finish out of the running for Chris Long, it's OK. There's no guarantee he'll be a great player anyway. But with that in mind, I think it's pretty obvious to say that New York's draft position won't improve after this game. I was looking forward to naming a ridiculous score for this contest, something like "Patriots 84, Jets 3." That would have been a good time. Unfortunately, there's going to be a snowstorm in Foxborough, meaning New England will win by only 40 or 50 points.

    Bill Belichick hates Eric Mangini. He will do everything in his power to embarrass his former assistant. If you thought the Patriots were running up the score before, get ready for a bloodbath. This is going to be extremely ugly. First of all, New York's defense can't stop anyone right now. Tom Brady and Randy Moss will score at will. In fact, I believe Brady will throw at least five touchdowns in this game, breaking Peyton Manning's single-season record of 49.

    Secondly, the Jets have a first-year quarterback making his initial start against Bill Belichick. Kellen Clemens, though promising, will get eaten alive. I don't have faith in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to put Clemens in the best position to win. Actually, I'm going to guarantee the Jets run the ball on the majority of their first downs in the opening half, setting up infinite second-and-longs for the young signal caller.

    This is going to be a sad day in Jets history. Fortunately, things can only get better from here on.


    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    Wait... Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini are best friends, right?


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    This line seems really short, doesn't it? Won't people just pound the Pats?
  • Percentage of money on New York: 59% (132,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-40 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
  • Two Homes (Win): Bill Belichick is 5-3 ATS at home following a home win.
  • Jets are 15-27-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 45 instances (8-10 under Eric Mangini).
  • Patriots are 38-23 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 24-9 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 16-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Tom Brady is 95-25 as a starter (76-42 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -24.
  • Opening Total: 52.
  • Weather: Snow, 34 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 29 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Heath Evans, Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Patriots Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jets Offense and Defense.


    Prediction: Patriots 28, Jets 0
    Patriots -21 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 41 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Patriots 20, Jets 10.



    Seattle Seahawks (9-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)
    Line: Seahawks by 7.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Seahawks -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Seahawks -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
    Injuries: SEAHAWKS: OUT: WR Deion Branch, DT Marcus Tubbs. PANTHERS: OUT: QB Jake Delhomme.

    I mentioned this in my weekly write-up, but I might as well state this again. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Seahawks came out of the NFC. They have a hot quarterback, a surging defense and more importantly, the experience no one else has. Out of all of the playoff contenders in the NFC, they're the only team whose current corps of players has a postseason victory. The only problem I have with Seattle is its lacking running game; Shaun Alexander remains a fat slob who is content to fall down to avoid contact. Emmitt Smith agrees. On Sunday NFL Countdown (or NFL Sunday Countdown if you're Keyshawn Johnson), Emmitt opined, "I'm concerned about a guy who fall down before get hits." OK, not the most elegant statement ever uttered on TV, but a great point nonetheless.

    I love how Mike Holmgren just abandoned the run. Ever since he did that, the Seahawks have covered five in a row. His strategy should once again work to a tee, as the Panthers can neither stop the pass nor get to the quarterback. Their 16 total sacks are embarrassing. Where is Julius Peppers? Why does he have only three sacks? I don't know how Carolina will contain Seattle.

    Meanwhile, I have even less of a clue how Carolina will score on the Seahawks. The Panthers have the most stale offense in the league without Jake Delhomme at the helm. Whether the quarterback is Vinny Testaverde, David Carr or Mandy Moore, Carolina simply cannot move the chains. The Seahawks, who have 41 sacks on the year, will pulverize whoever's starting for the Panthers. Steve Smith, Carolina's only weapon, will get shut down once again. It's a shame he doesn't have a legitimate quarterback throwing to him.

    I mentioned this on my Power Rankings page. I've been dumb with the Panthers. For whatever reason, I've picked them to cover four of the past six weeks. Seriously, what the hell am I doing? I'm tired of taking them and watching their little helmet on NFL.com go backward whenever they have the ball. I just can't pick the Panthers anymore. I'd rather inject myself with Ebola. Considering that they've beaten the number only once at home the past calendar year, I think I'm making the right choice.

    As for the Vegas implications, I found it hilarious that as of Tuesday night, not one single bet was cashed on the Panthers. Not one. Luckily for Seahawks backers, the line has moved up from -7 to -7.5. Definitely not a bad sign - even if you're siding with my horrendous picks.


    The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
    The Seahawks aren't really going anywhere. They're basically planted at the No. 3 seed. Carolina will look to rebound off a blowout.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    No one in the right mind would bet on the Panthers right now.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 99% (151,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 23-32 ATS since 2002 (Mike Holmgren 2-8).
  • Seahawks are 6-9 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Matt Hasselbeck is 13-17 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Matt Hasselbeck is 8-13 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Panthers are 13-25 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -7.
  • Opening Total: 38.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 22 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Seahawks Defense.
  • Sit Em: Panthers Offense (not Steve Smith) and Defense.


    Prediction: Seahawks 20, Panthers 3
    Seahawks -7.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 37.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Panthers 13, Seahawks 10.



    Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-9)
    Line: Titans by 3.5. Total: 35.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Titans -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Titans -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: TITANS: OUT: WR David Givens, CB Pacman Jones, S Chris Hope. CHIEFS: OUT: RB Larry Johnson*.

    NCAA Football Tournament update. The first round of the playoff is over. We're now in the Elite Eight, which features the following matchups: LSU-Missouri, Oklahoma-USC, Florida-Georgia and Ohio State-West Virginia. Check out the NCAA Football Tournament here. I'm going all out this year. I have a printable bracket. I just designed a logo for the Boycott the Bowl Initiative. I'm also going to have a back-and-forth debate with Cleveland Indians minor-league baseball pitcher Mike Eisenberg. Stay tuned for updates.

    Remember when all Vince Young did was win football games? Half of you, Young's supporters, might say, "Yeah, what in the world happened to him? And why haven't they given him any weapons to work with?" The other half, the people who hate him for whatever reason might say, "Ha! I knew he always sucked!" But whatever feelings you have toward the Texas alumnus, you should all agree that his new mantra is "All Young does is throw to crappy receivers and consequently have erratic performances."

    Not as catchy, I know, but effective nonetheless. With no potent downfield threats, opposing defenses can key in on him and prevent him from running. That's why he had a grand total of two rushing yards against the Chargers. Luckily for Young, Kansas City's defense is an abomination. It can't stop the run, as everyone witnessed last week when Selvin Young totaled 144 yards on the ground - in the first half alone. Chris Brown and LenDale White will eat through the Chiefs' front seven, setting up easy throwing and running opportunities for Young, who will be facing a secondary that surrendered what seemed like 50,000 yards and 8,000 touchdowns to Jay Cutler on Sunday.

    I was shocked when Kolby Smith was limited to 12 yards on 13 carries last week. Smith, after all, gained four or more yards per rush against the Raiders and Chargers the prior two weeks. The Broncos, ranked 30th against opposing ground attacks, bottled him up. That doesn't bode well for this contest, as Tennessee is fully capable of putting the clamps on running backs as long as Albert "The Hamstring" Haynesworth is in the lineup. Smith's inability to penetrate the Titans' front seven will set up unfavorable situations for Brodie Croyle. He hasn't really shown me much yet, though he is still pretty young. In three starts, he has more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (3), and a pedestrian completion percentage of 57.4.

    With the Titans and Chiefs in a cover funk (both teams are 1-4 against the spread their last five), I sort of made it seem that Tennessee has the matchup advantages. Well, they do, and that's why they're 4-point favorites in Arrowhead. I'm well aware the Titans need to win to keep pace in the wildcard race, and that's exactly why I'm picking Kansas City. It seems like all Tennessee does is choke. They did last year on the final week of the season, when a victory would have allowed them entry into the playoffs. They did last week against the Chargers, inexplicably blowing a 17-3 lead to a team that had never come back from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit in franchise history. And I have a feeling they'll do it in Arrowhead again.

    Friday Update: With ample action still on Tennessee, the line has moved off a key number, from -4 down to -3.5. I'm bumping this up to three units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Ummm... Titans... time to start winning. The Chiefs won't die easily - they were just embarrassed by a divisional rival.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    After watching the Chiefs get blown out against a mediocre team, no one will be betting on them this week.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 68% (124,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Vince Young is 14-10 as a starter (15-9 ATS).
  • Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Chiefs are 1-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Opening Line: Titans -4.
  • Opening Total: 34.
  • Weather: Sunny, 33 degrees. Mild winds, 14 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: LenDale White, Chris Brown, Tony Gonzalez, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Titans Receivers, Kolby Smith.


    Prediction: Titans 9, Chiefs 7
    Chiefs +3.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 35 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Titans 26, Chiefs 17.



    Indianapolis Colts (11-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)
    Line: Colts by 10.5. Total: 44.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Colts -12.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Colts -14.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: COLTS: OUT: WR Marvin Harrison, DE Dwight Freeney, DT Anthony McFarland, OLB Rob Morris. RAIDERS: OUT: RB Michael Bush.

    In one of my write-ups for the NCAA Football Tournament, I mentioned that I was a narcoleptic who needs about five naps per day to function properly. This was a problem when I was in college. I seriously fell asleep in every single class. In fact, let's go back earlier. In high school calculus class, I dozed off every day after finishing off the lemonade I had for lunch. Because I still had the lemonade in my system, I'd drool all over my desk. One day, my friend Jesse, who sat in front of me, drew a bulls eye on my desk that read, "Drool here." Anyway, my friend was hosting a party this Saturday. I planned on showing up around 10. I ate dinner at 8:30, finished at 9 and immediately fell asleep. Well, I woke up at 2 a.m. to a barrage of IMs from another friend, who was pissed I didn't show up. The moral of the story? If you're a narcoleptic like me, don't make any plans with anyone. Ever.

    I think everyone looks at this game and asks what the Colts have to play for. At first glance, it doesn't appear like much. They're pretty solidified at the No. 2 spot; they can't pass the Patriots, they've all but won their division, and the likelihood of the Steelers or Chargers catching them is very slim. But I've got something in case you're worried about this being a trap game - with the barrage of injuries Indianapolis has suffered, especially to its lines and receiving corps, it appears as though Tony Dungy is trying his hardest to get his team prepared for the playoffs and its inevitable rematch with the Patriots. Peyton Manning, meanwhile, needs to get more comfortable with Anthony Gonzalez, because it doesn't appear as though Marvin Harrison will be coming back - at least not at full strength.

    The only concern I'd have if I were betting on the Colts is if Oakland's offense can score enough to pull off a backdoor cover. Well, the Raiders' scoring attack begins and ends with Justin Fargas, who has come out of nowhere to be ranked among the league leaders in rushing. Unfortunately for Fargas, he'll be going up against a defense that is 12th versus the run. And that ranking would be even higher if Bob Sanders were healthy the entire year. With Fargas stuffed in the backfield, Josh McCown and Andrew Walter are bound to create turnovers. Man, if only the Raiders had a No. 1 overall pick to spend on a quarterback. Hold on a second...

    If I'm right about the Colts being focused, then they're the right side. Besides, they usually take care of business as huge road favorites; their flat spots seem to occur at home.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Colts are now locked into the two-seed. This game means nothing to them.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    Only 10.5? The books are saying the Raiders are just as good as the Ravens. People will throw tons of cash on Indianapolis.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 96% (144,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 81-66 ATS on the road following a road win (Tony Dungy 6-2).
  • Colts are 27-18 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
  • Peyton Manning is 21-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
  • Raiders are 7-21 ATS at home the previous 28 instances.
  • Opening Line: Colts -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Colts Defense.
  • Sit Em: Raiders Offense and Defense.


    Prediction: Colts 41, Raiders 14
    Colts -10.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 44.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Colts 21, Raiders 14.



    Detroit Lions (6-7) at San Diego Chargers (8-5)
    Line: Chargers by 9.5. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Chargers -10.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Chargers -11.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: .
    Injuries: LIONS: OUT: WR Roy Williams, S Daniel Bullocks. CHARGERS: OUT: LB Shawne Merriman.

    I haven't had a chance to make fun of the NFL Network's halftime and post-game show just yet. Shall we?

    Rich Eisen: Hello, I'm Rich Eisen, and welcome to the pregame show. Tonight, it's the Cowboys and the Eagles, Who will win? Should be a good game, right Marshall? Marshall Faulk: This should be a good game, Rich! Steve Mariucci: Oh boy, oh boy, let me tell you what. I love Andy Reid. He's my best friend. And I love Donovan McNabb. What a swell guy. And Brian Westbrook, what a great weapon and a great person. Faulk: Brian Westbrook is a great weapon and a great person! Deion Sanders: This is Deion Sanders. Deion ain't likin the lack of respect the Cowboys are gettin tonight. No one expects them to win this game. Deion gonna go out on a limb and predict a Dallas upset victory. Faulk: You know what, guys? I think Dallas might win in an upset tonight. Mariucci: Then you look at the Cowboys. Good golly grief, Tony Romo is such a class act. Wade Phillips is such a good friend. And Jason Witten, what a nice, young man he is! He will have at least 30 catches tonight. Faulk: I think Jason Witten will have 30 catches tonight, Rich!

    There's a great angle in this game that I don't have listed in the Trends section. I don't have exact numbers for it, but I can list numerous examples of when it worked, and why it's so effective. We're going to look at double-digit underdogs who lost by a field goal or less, and how they've reacted the following week. Recently, we've had the Eagles and Ravens go down by three against the Patriots. Miami lost 3-0 against the Steelers on the slop at Heinz Field. The Chiefs went into Indianapolis and battled the Colts tough, ultimately losing, 13-10. All of these massive dogs failed to cover the following week. Why? Well, when you put all of your eggs in one basket - Baltimore is a perfect example of this because the team called its tilt against the Patriots its "Super Bowl" - it's so hard to bounce back with a solid effort, both mentally and physically.

    This happened to the Lions last week. They played the game of their lives against the Cowboys. They seemed to do everything right until the very end. Even Mike Martz inexplicably ran the ball. Unfortunately, a missed field goal and Paris Lenon's failure to recover a fumble ultimately led to their demise. How can Detroit possibly bounce back from this? The team is undoubtedly talking about all of the missed opportunities this week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are waiting for them.

    The Lions match up as poorly against the Chargers as they did against the Vikings a few weeks ago. San Diego will run the ball down Detroit's throat (hopefully) and get immense pressure on Jon Kitna. The Lions suck on the road anyhow; they're 2-4 as visitors, losing by an average margin of 27 points. This could be a bloodbath.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
    I don't know how the Lions recover from losing to the Cowboys. They had the game and they blew it. They're done.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    This line is a bit big, so I'm not sure if there's going to be a ton of action on the Chargers. Could be wrong though.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 51% (144,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Lions are 9-15 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Lions are 4-8 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Jon Kitna, Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Chris Chambers, Antonio Gates, Chargers Defense.
  • Sit Em: T.J. Duckett, Kevin Jones, Lions Defense.


    Prediction: Chargers 34, Lions 10
    Chargers -9.5 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
    Under 48.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Chargers 51, Lions 14.



    Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (12-1)
    Line: Cowboys by 10.5. Total: 48.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Cowboys -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Cowboys -13.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: COWBOYS: OUT: WR Terry Glenn, NT Jason Ferguson.

    We're back at Emmitt Smith's stopping grounds. Speaking of Emmitt, once this season is over, I'm going to compile a page dedicated to all of his quotes. It's going to be awesome. And note that I'm not the only one who bashes him. Check out Emmitt Smith here and Here (Al Jackson!)

    I know I got my Eagles-Giants pick wrong last week, which is a given because I got everything incorrect, but I'm going to stick by my premise. Philadelphia has a knack for looking great when no one expects them to win, and horribly when they're supposed to walk away with a victory. This has happened numerous times this year, and it's a reason why Andy Reid usually covers as a large underdog (I had the urge to say "covers eating a large hot dog" but that would be mean.)

    But let's be realistic here. What do the Cowboys have to play for? The only way they can lose the stranglehold on their No. 1 seed is if something bizarre happens. That's why they didn't show up against the Lions until the very end. If I were a Dallas fan, I'd actually be concerned about my team's complacency a month before its first postseason contest. But at any rate, this game means much more to the Eagles, as they were blown out at home against the Cowboys, 38-17.

    I'm not going to read much into that game; it was one of the three weeks this season that Andy Reid's kids were either arrested or sentenced to prison. Reid wasn't focused going into the contest. In fact, he wasn't even at practice during the week. The Eagles lost all three instances Reid's two sons were in trouble with the law by a combined score of 77-45.

    Reid will have his squad focused this time. Given that the majority of Philadelphia's losses have come by single digits (3, 8, 13, 3, 21, 3, 4, 3), I see no reason why the Eagles can't cover. Ten is a lot of points in a heated rivalry, especially when one of the teams may not be fully focused. This could be one of those games I mentioned in the Chargers-Lions write-up, where a squad puts all of its eggs in one basket and calls it its Super Bowl.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    We all saw how hard the Cowboys tried against the Lions. They're the top seed in the NFC. This game means nothing to them. The Eagles are out of the playoff hunt, but they'll be after revenge in the wake of getting blown out by Dallas earlier this year.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    No one's taking the Eagles. They suck.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 87% (153,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Eagles have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-40 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
  • Eagles are 44-30 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 20-13 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 27-17 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 17-9 ATS after a loss since 2001.
  • Tony Romo is 14-8 ATS as a starter.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -11.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Sunny, 52 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Cowboys Defense.
  • Sit Em: Julius Jones.


    Prediction: Cowboys 31, Eagles 28
    Eagles +10.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 48.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Eagles 10, Cowboys 6.



    Washington Redskins (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4)
    Line: Giants by 5. Total: 36.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Giants -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Giants -6.
    Sunday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen. GIANTS: OUT: RB Derrick Ward*.

    Before I discuss game, take a look at my Week 15 Look-Alike Pictures featuring Lyle Menendez and Fat Albert.

    Much like the Cowboys, the Giants have absolutely nothing to play for. Coming off two tough road victories, they find themselves three games above everyone chasing them for a wildcard spot. So basically, in order for New York not to make the playoffs, it needs to lose every single game, and have either the Cardinals, Saints, Redskins and Lions win their last three. That's probably not going to happen, so there may not be a sense of urgency for the Giants here. One of the teams I mentioned is Washington, who is desperate to get into the postseason. This game obviously means much more to them.

    I feel there are two other angles that favor the Redskins. One is revenge; they lost 24-17 in Week 3 after blowing a 17-3 halftime lead, thanks in part to Overlord of Offense (or whatever his title is) Al Saunders' horrific play-calling. Jason Campbell was still suffering from his growing pains, failing to complete 50 percent of his passes, as he went 16-of-34 for 190 yards and a score. Campbell's injured, which doesn't really hurt the Redskins because Todd Collins has a quicker release and makes better decisions. I've watched Collins over the years in preseason, and I've always been impressed by him. There's a reason he easily beat out Mark Brunell for the No. 2 job. And besides, New York's unfamiliarity with him can only help Washington.

    The second angle has to do with Collins. We've seen many times this year when backup quarterbacks have won making their first start. Luke McCown at New Orleans. Quinn Gray at Tampa Bay. Sage Rosenfels against the Buccaneers. The list goes on and on. The reason behind this is the team plays harder, knowing it'll take 200 percent with the reserve at the helm. The opposition, meanwhile, doesn't take the squad seriously. This could happen Sunday night, especially if New York is as unfocused as I think it'll be.

    If nothing I've said so far has convinced you that the Redskins are the right side, let's just look at the spread implications. Despite all of the action on the Giants, the line has yet to move off 4.5. Then again, you may decide New York is the right side because I'm picking Washington. Because I'm Eli Manning (check the first paragraph of the Bengals-49ers write-up to see why), I can't really disagree with you. I can only shake my head with a vacant expression on my face.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    The Redskins need to win this game to stay alive. The Giants, meanwhile, are locked into the fifth seed.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    The public should be on the Giants bandwagon after watching them win two straight.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 89% (132,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
  • History: Giants have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Giants -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Rain/snow, 34 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 26 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, Chris Cooley, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey.
  • Sit Em: Brandon Jacobs.


    Prediction: Redskins 14, Giants 10
    Redskins +5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 36 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Redskins 22, Giants 10.



    Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
    Line: Vikings by 10.5. Total: 42.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14): Vikings -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14): Vikings -10.
    Monday, 8:30 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    Injuries: BEARS: OUT: G Ruben Brown, DT Dusty Dvoracek, CB Nathan Vasher, S Mike Brown.

    Before I get to my Monday night dissertation, I want to mention that you can compete against me and others by picking football games at the Picking Forum. You'll be able to pick every game starting Wednesday afternoon, and you can post comments for each contest as well. No prizes, but you do get bragging rights.

    Wait A Second... Weren't The Bears Better...? Go back in time to the beginning of November, and ask any football fan whom they think is the better team between the Bears and the Vikings, and an overwhelming majority would choose the former. Minnesota is this season's surprise team, but it's not like it began the campaign hot on a 6-0 or 5-1 tear. These Vikings were 2-5 on Halloween. They somehow reeled off four of five, thanks to Adrian Peterson, an opportunistic defense that has somewhere around 500 interceptions the past month and an improving Tarvaris Jackson.

    The Bears, meanwhile, are just 10 months removed from playing in the Super Bowl. There are still a lot of proud veterans on this team who are asking, "Wait a second? How are we 10-point dogs to these losers? They've sucked for years, and now they're 10 points better than us?" I expect Chicago's leaders, including Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, Adewale Ogunleye and Tommie Harris to step up and play to the best of their ability.

    But Are They Really That Good? Let's look at Minnesota's sudden surge toward the top of the NFC wildcard race. After losing to the Eagles at home, the Vikings have ripped off four of five. The first victory was an impressive 35-17 thrashing of the Chargers. However, I picked Minnesota in that contest for five units - this is back when I wasn't Eli Manning (check the first paragraph of the 49ers-Bengals write-up for more details). My reasoning? "Take a look at whom the Chargers play after the Vikings. No, not just the Colts. They have Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Tennessee, AFC West-leading Kansas City, 5-2 Detroit and archrival Denver following this "gimme" game. This is San Diego's last easy battle for a very long time. Not only will they be unfocused for lowly Minnesota, they'll also be preparing for their tough road ahead."

    Moving on, the Vikings lost at Green Bay, 34-0, the following week. What good team loses 34-0 to a divisional rival? After that, they barely beat the beleaguered Raiders at home, 29-22; intercepted Eli Manning five billion times at the Meadowlands; and clobbered the mighty Lions and 49ers. Don't blame me for being a skeptic here.

    The Choke Job: So, everyone's saying how great the Vikings are now. Don't get me wrong; I think they're solid. However, I don't think they should be favored by 10 in this spot. With everyone expecting Minnesota to win, I think there could be potential for a choke-job situation. This is a young team with no playoff experience. Forgive me for not trusting them to come out on top when they're supposed to.

    The Backup Quarterback: This refers to something I mentioned in the Redskins-Giants write-up. For simplicity, let me copy-paste:

    "We've seen many times this year when backup quarterbacks have won making their first start. Luke McCown at New Orleans. Quinn Gray at Tampa Bay. Sage Rosenfels against the Buccaneers. The list goes on and on."

    Kyle Orton will be starting for the Bears. How can the Vikings possibly take Chicago seriously? It's Kyle Orton, for crying out loud! He looks like a freaking caveman. Not that there's anything wrong with that...

    The Vegas Bodybags: Vegas has done horribly two of the past three weeks, so there's always a chance they could Tim Donaghy this game if they're looking to recoup some money. Long shot, I know, but anything's possible. As of Wednesday evening, 91 percent of the action is on Minnesota. As I've made it clear above, I think the Bears are the right side.

    But Walt, You Suck At Picking Games Now! I know, I know. Some e-mailers needed to point this out to me, but I'm well aware of my post-Thanksgiving, Eli Manning-like futility. I like the Bears, so the Vikings are probably going to cover. Then again, I could just be corny and state that Adrian Peterson will come out on top, so I win this game no matter what.

    Monday Morning Update: It's Monday morning, and I still like the Bears. I see this playing out like Dallas-Philadelphia. You have an overconfident and inexperienced home favorite giving way too many points playing a divisional double-digit underdog with proud veterans. Anything can happen in a rivalry. I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago won straight up.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    The Vikings need to win to stay in front of everyone, but that means there's going to be a lot of pressure on them. The Bears want revenge for an earlier loss.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    The Vikings are the sexy pick nowadays.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (244,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 103-72 ATS on the road following a road loss (Lovie Smith 4-1 regardless).
  • History: Home Team has won 9 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 48-40 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Lovie Smith 3-0).
  • Opening Line: Vikings -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Adrian Peterson (MIN), Chester Taylor, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Adrian Peterson (CHI).


    Prediction: Vikings 20, Bears 16
    Bears +10.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 42.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Vikings 20, Bears 13.


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Anti-Public Parlay: Cardinals +4, Dolphins +4, Bills +6, Chiefs +4, Eagles +11, Redskins +5, Bears +11 (.5 Units to win 34.6) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Teaser: Packers -1 & Seahawks -0.5 (2.6 Units to win 2) -- Incorrect; -$260
  • Live Dog: Cardinals +165 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Live Dog: Dolphins +150 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$300
  • Live Dog: Bills +195 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Live Dog: Jaguars +140 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$280
  • Live Dog: Chiefs +165 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Live Dog: Redskins +190 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$380
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)
  • Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)
  • Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)
  • More prop picks will be listed here.



    Second-Half Bets
    Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Second-half picks will be listed here.



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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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