NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2015




NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 3.

Sunday, 8:00 ET
at Canton, Ohio

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This spread was at Vikings -3.5 for a while. I didn't want to lay more than a field goal this early in the preseason, but I'm willing to bite at -3. Mike Zimmer was a perfect 4-0 in the preseason last year, while Mike Tomlin is just 1-7 in exhibition games the past two summers, and 4-5 in Week 1 overall. I think Tomlin wants to win preseason contests, but he hasn't been able to because Landry Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. Jones reportedly will play a majority of this game, which is good news for Minnesota backers.

I'll be one of them. I'm going with one unit on the Vikings. I'd bet more, but we have such a small sample size on Zimmer.

By the way, I'll be running a live blog tonight during the game, so come check that out.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Tomlin is 20-13 in preseason games (1-7 last 2 years).
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 4-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 1-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Steelers 10
    Vikings -3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








    Green Bay Packers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
    Line: Patriots by 2.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Few people have cared less about Week 1 preseason games than Mike McCarthy; he's 2-7 in these initial games. Bill Belichick is a more-impressive 11-5, and he'll have extra incentive to take this game seriously, given that Jimmy Garoppolo may start the season opener. I hate laying the hook, so I'm going to wait and see if a -3 is available later during the week.

    Update: This spread has gone down, which is good news. I'm increasing this wager to three units.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Mike McCarthy is 18-18 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCarthy is 2-7 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Bill Belichick is 34-28 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 11-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Packers 7
    Patriots -2 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330







    Washington Redskins (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
    Line: Browns by 2.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    We don't have much data yet on these two coaches, but it seems as though Jay Gruden takes the preseason more seriously than Mike Pettine. Gruden was 3-1 last year, with his only loss being against Jon Harbaugh, who is also a beast in the exhibition portion of the year. Mike Pettine? Not so much, as his 1-3 record indicates.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Jay Gruden is 3-1 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 1-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Mike Pettine is 1-3 in preseason games.
  • Mike Pettine is 0-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 23, Browns 16
    Redskins +2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
    Line: Pick.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    It's a bit strange that the Bears aren't three-point favorites in this game. Sure, the Dolphins are the better team, but that hardly matters in the preseason, especially during the first weekend. Joe Philbin is just 5-8 in exhibition contests, including 1-3 in Week 1. John Fox, on the other hand, has a strong track record in these meaningless games. He even beat Seattle in the preseason opener last year, which is very difficult to do, considering that Pete Carroll takes the exhibition seriously.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Joe Philbin is 5-8 in preseason games.
  • Joe Philbin is 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • John Fox is 28-24 in preseason games.
  • John Fox is 9-4 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Dolphins 13
    Bears PK (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
    Line: Pick.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The prospect of betting on Landry Jones, one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history, frightens me, but hear me out. Wagering on the loser of the Hall of Fame Game the following week has been very profitable over the years. Mike Tomlin also takes the preseason more seriously than Gus Bradley, who is just 2-6 in his two seasons. And besides, perhaps Bruce "The Polish Point-Shaver" Gradkowski and Tajh "I'm Better Than Landry Jones" Boyd will see action in this contest. Still, I can't go above one unit on Jones.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 20-14 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-6 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Gus Bradley is 2-6 in preseason games.
  • Gus Bradley is 1-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 13, Jaguars 10
    Steelers PK (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110





    Comment...



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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-5 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 8-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-6 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-3 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-7 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-3 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-6 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 4-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-6 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-7 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-6 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-5 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-8 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-8 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-4 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-5 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-6 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-7 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-6 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-5 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-8 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-8 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 16-21 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-13 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 27-25 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-11 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-20 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-10 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
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