NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 21, 2023

Lamar Jackson
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2023): 5-10-1 (-$1,295)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2023): 5-9 (-$935)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2023): 7-6 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2023): 5-9 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2023): 13-2-1 (+$1,960)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2023): 6-7 (-$115)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2023): 7-7-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$120)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2023): 7-8-1 (-$800)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2023): 8-8 (-$320)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2023): 4-2 (+$1,155)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2023): 1-3 (+$95)
2023 NFL Picks: 142-140-10 (-$6,485)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 25, 1:45 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 21 Late Games

Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Jan. 28, 3:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

Week 20 Analysis: We went 1-3 last week, but still came out ahead at +$95. The Lions came through with a five-unit victory. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

49ers, 3 units (loss): Brock Purdy really struggled in the rain. That’s something to remember in the future.

Lions, 5 units (win): This was a nice win, and we didn’t even have to sweat out the two-point conversion at the end because were able to get -5.5 -113 on Saturday night.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. This week’s hate mail concerns Mark Haag, who sent me an e-mail with the subject “Pod.” I thought he was going to discuss the podcast, but apparently not:

Oh no, I must have said a mean thing or two on Twitter. Oh, the horror!

Speaking of being mad about Twitter, I saw this chart recently:

Based on the data, I can only assume that Mark Haag is a Democratic woman. Mark replied to me again:

Yes, “normal people” laugh at me. Normal people who all fire off deranged e-mails hoping that someone loses all their money. All of those “normal people.”

Anyway, Mark brought up my wife, not realizing that I did so because he typed “wifely reported” instead of “widely reported.” Democratic woman Twitter did not send their finest here.

I am serious about not showing pictures of our kids. That’s why I don’t have any of them on my Facebook wall. You never know how many Joe Biden child-sniffing types there are out there, and I imagine Mark Haag is even worse than Pedo Pete.

Nevertheless, this continued:

I did not hear back from Mark. I assume the humiliation was too much. That, or he was arrested for having naked pictures of minors on his computer.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson received plenty of criticism for not being able to win in the playoffs. Perhaps there are some detractors who will say that he can’t win a “big game” in the postseason, but his performance in the divisional round of the playoffs says otherwise. Jackson went 16-of-22 for 152 yards and two touchdowns, and he also scrambled for 100 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground.

It can’t even be said that Jackson did this versus a poor opponent because the Texans ranked 10th in defensive EPA entering the playoffs. The Chiefs have an excellent defense, but they also just struggled to stop Josh Allen, who ran for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the prior round. Allen wasn’t as great through the air, but missed some throws and saw his receivers drop passes. If the Ravens are more efficient, it’ll be impossible for the Chiefs to contain them.

One thing the Chiefs can do is eliminate Zay Flowers. Kansas City is excellent versus No. 1 receivers, so Flowers will be smothered. Knowing that, it would help the Ravens immensely if Mark Andrews were able to play. Andrews was able to practice fully twice last week, but was ruled out for the game. Perhaps John Harbaugh was saving him for a bigger game like this one.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs suffered what could be a catastrophic injury late versus Buffalo. Joe Thuney injured his chest during an Isiah Pacheco run, and he could miss this game. Thuney is Kansas City’s best blocker by a mile. His absence versus a defense that applies heavy pressure on the quarterback could really hinder the Chiefs offense.

If you don’t think Kansas City’s offense can be shut down, allow me to reference Mahomes’ performance against the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. Mahomes was constantly running for his life due to the poor pass protection, and we could see something like that in this game, especially if Thuney can’t go. Baltimore has a rabid pass rush that debacled C.J. Stroud, who was well protected all year. If the Ravens could get through the Houston front, they’ll be able to disrupt the Chiefs, who have some glaring weaknesses on their blocking unit.

Besides, there’s no guarantee that the Chiefs won’t screw up again even if Mahomes has time in the pocket. Kansas City played a very efficient game versus Buffalo, but the Bills were missing half their defense. I also don’t trust the Chiefs to suddenly be flawless after an entire season of mental blunders. I’ll even be shocked if they don’t resurface for this game.

RECAP: Without even knowing what the spread was, I knew I would like the Ravens entering this game. Baltimore has a huge advantage in the trenches, and the Chiefs are extremely prone to making mistakes. One clean game versus an injury-ravaged Buffalo team can’t possibily erase an entire season of futility.

And then, I saw the spread. Wow. How are the Ravens only -3.5 with one extra day of preparation? Baltimore is atop the EPA charts, while the Chiefs are 20th in net EPA. If you think that’s wrong, think of all the miserable performances Kansas City has had in the second half of the season. The Chiefs lost to the Packers. They lost to the Raiders at home. They barely beat the Jake Browning-led Bengals. They had trouble putting the Patriots away. Sure, they clobbered the Dolphins and beat the Bills, but both teams were reeling with injuries. Baltimore is not.

The EPA numbers suggest this spread should be Baltimore -8. I made this line -7.5. The oddsmakers could never make a spread like that because of the Mahomes factor, so they had to shade the spread lower. I think we can take advantage of this because every square will be lining up to take Mahomes with the 3.5. “He’ll lose by a field goal at most!”

I think this game could resemble the Chiefs-Buccaneers Super Bowl. Baltimore is a buzzsaw, and I think the Chiefs are severely outmatched. I’m considering this as my January NFL Pick of the Month.

Our Week 21 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joe Thuney missed Wednesday’s practice, but it’s obviously early in the week. If Thuney is out, Kansas City is going to have severe issues blocking the Ravens. Meanwhile, Marlon Humphrey practiced on a limited basis, so that’s a good sign for his availability.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some major injury news. The biggest thing is that Joe Thuney is out. This is a huge blow for the Chiefs because he’s the best blocker, and Kansas City already had issues protecting on the edge. There’s also a chance Isiah Pacheco could be sidelined, but he said that he would play after being DNP-DNP-limited in practice all week. For the Ravens, Marlon Humphrey practiced fully on Friday, so that’s obviously a great sign. Also, Mark Andrews has been activated from injured reserve. There are reports that he could be restricted in his first game back, but there’s also a chance that he could be full go. Sharp money has driven this line up to -4.

PLAYER PROPS: Mobile quarterbacks are 4-2 on the over rushing yards in this year’s playoffs. I’ll once again be betting those because mobile quarterbacks tend to rush more in the postseason. The best number for Lamar Jackson is over 65.5 -110 on FanDuel, while the best number for Patrick Mahomes is over 26.5 -125 at DraftKings.

Something I bet in the first round and forgot to bet in the second round was Mecole Hardman’s under receiving yards prop. Hardman’s prop is inflated because of Week 18 when all the backups played. Excluding that game, he hasn’t had more than 13 receiving yards in a single game this year, yet his prop currently sits at 13.5. The best number is under 13.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

And finally, I’m going under 44.5 receiving yards on Zay Flowers. It’s lower than his season average by eight, but the Chiefs lock down No. 1 receivers. Plus, I expect the Ravens to have a big lead, so they may not have to throw very much. The best number is under 44.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I’ve decided to have dual Picks of the Month for January because I love both the Ravens and Lions so much. I’m locking in the Ravens now with so much sharp money coming in on them and moving the line up to -4.5. You can still get -4 -110 at BetMGM or -4 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay the four props – Lamar Jackson over 64.5 rushing yards, Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards, Zay Flowers under 44.5 receiving yards and Mecole Hardman under 13.5 receiving yards – together for a +1000 payout. This parlay was done on DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Willie Gay is out for the Chiefs, which is a big deal because he was their main spy for Lamar Jackson. The sharps are on the Ravens, with some books like Circa even moving this line to -5. However, locking in this pick wasn’t necessary last night because Bookmaker currently has -4 -106 available.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

  • Patrick Mahomes is 83-24 SU, 58-48 ATS (46-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Lamar Jackson is 11-19 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: .

  • The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 57% (870,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

  • Patrick Mahomes is 83-24 SU, 58-48 ATS (46-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Lamar Jackson is 11-19 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: .

  • Week 21 NFL Pick: Ravens 31, Chiefs 17
    Ravens -4 (7 Units – Dual January NFL Pick of the Month) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$770
    Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Lamar Jackson over 65.5 rushing yards -110 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$55
    Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards -125 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$65
    Player Prop: Mecole Hardman under 13.5 receiving yards -120 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$50
    Player Prop: Zay Flowers under 44.5 receiving yards -115 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$55
    Same-Game Parlay: Lamar Jackson over 64.5 rushing yards, Patrick Mahomes over 26.5 rushing yards, Zay Flowers under 44.5 receiving yards, Mecole Hardman under 13.5 receiving yards +1000 (0.25 Units to win 2.5) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$25
    Chiefs 17, Ravens 10

    Detroit Lions (14-5) at San Francisco 49ers (13-5)
    Line: 49ers by 7.5. Total: 51.

    Sunday, Jan. 28, 6:30 PM

    The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Swim Instructor Power Rankings.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, where tonight, the Detroit Tigers play the San Francisco Giants. Guys, it’s unfortunate that the Tigers just beat the Tampa Gay Butt F**kaneers because the Tampa Gay Butt F**kaneers would do well in San Francisco because everyone in this stupid city is either a butt f**kaneer or one of the people from Full House. This is almost as big of a travesty as my Philadelphia Eagles not being here! What do you think!?

    Emmitt: Thanks, Maria. I agree on you that Full House are terrible show. Everybody say that Mary, Kate, and Ashley Olson are the bestest triplette girl on TV, but when I watch this show, I only see one of thems. What happen to the other three triplette? Do they die in fire or earthquake, or maybe alligator eat all of them. They never explain anything on the show, including when they say that a comet gonna destroy the Earth, and I always am confusion.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I’m pretty sure that there are only three Olsen sisters, not four I- wait, what is it, Tolly?

    Tollefson: To answer Emmitt’s question, I just checked my records, and I have a Mary Olson and a Kate Olson locked up in my cellar as female slaves who cook and clean naked for me. This might be why only Ashley Olson is on the show. Perhaps she will be my next victim.

    Reilly: Tolly, I’m so jealous that you get to have these naked women tied up in your cellar. Mother wouldn’t even let me have a picture of a girl before because she said that they’re the Devil. If I had a naked girl tied up in my cellar, I would totally force her to become my girlfriend and also love my Philadelphia Eagles as much as I do, which sounds impossible because I’m the ultimate superfan of my Philadelphia Eagles, and I have to say that anyone rooting for the Detroit Tigers because Detroit is an underdog city like Philadelphia is a traitor in my book. There is only one Philadelphia. And there is only one team I can call my Philadelphia Eagles, and anyone rooting for anyone else should die!!!

    Tollefson: You OK there, Reilly? There’s blood coming out of your nose.

    Reilly: Tolly, I need to make sure people understand how serious this is. Speaking of serious business, we’re running out of time for me to get a singer girlfriend. Mother bet her friends at the hair salon that her Kevin Reilly poopykins would be able to date a prettier singer than Taylor Swift. Well, we only have two guest slots remaining, so this next one is … Madonna? Oh wow, she’s famous and hot!

    Madonna: I hate Donald Twwwummppp, guh.

    Reilly: What the hell happened to you? You used to be so pretty! I remember asking Mother special permission to have a poster of you in my room right next to my Randall Cunningham and Buddy Ryan posters, but she said no, so I hid the poster of you under my bed until Mother found it and gave me a harsh beating with her belt. What happened to that Madonna?

    Madonna: Donald Twwwummmppp hurt my feewings. Can’t even talk, feewings so hurt, guh.

    Reilly: Senator President John Feasterman, you recently spent time in a mental hospital, which is totally normal for any politician. Do you have any medication that you can give Madonna so she can muster the energy to be forced into being my girlfriend?

    John Fetterman: Mustard is a tricky one. Colonel Mustard did it with the scuba gear in the school science lab. He killed Professor Peach and ate Miss Daisy for breakfast. Macaroni and cheese is my favorite dessert. Just as long as Miss Peacock doesn’t transition into Miss Tiger.

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! I- wait a second, we’re getting buzzed by Charissa Thompson, who has this sideline report for us. Charissa?

    Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Kevin. I’m reporting that Nick Sirianni ate an orangutan with mustard and pickles, and then he drank rhino urine for dessert. Back to you, Kevin!

    Reilly: That stupid Nick Sirianni, always ruining things for everyone!

    Madonna: Reminds me of Donald Twummmpppp. I’m gonna move if Donald Twummmpp is elected as pwesident, guh.

    Reilly: Uh, he was already elected as president. Speaking of presidents, maybe Joe Bident can raise morale. He did this at all of his impressive campaign rallies back in 2020. I think like 20 people attended one of them, so it’s no surprise that Joe Bident got the most votes of all time. And based on his campaign rallies, he really knows how to rile up a crowd! Remember all of those honking horns? There were like five of them!

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you orangutan-eating rhino urinator, it’s not about the size of the rally that counts, but rather the size of stacks of ballots you secretly deliver to key voting locations at 4 a.m. Now, here’s the deal: When I was raised in a Chilean zoo, I used to be friends with all the orangutans. Human Speaking Joe Biden, they used to call me. Then, one day, Sally visits the zoo, and I instantly knew that I had to break out of them cages and be with her. She crossed her legs and everything while doing arts and crafts, so she was real mature. The other orangutans said I couldn’t break out of prison. No Breakout Joe they called me. But here’s the deal: I had a tattoo artist tattoo the prison onto my body so I knew where all the secret passages were, so that’s how I made my great escape to have relations with Suzanne in the shower before her 7 p.m. bedtime.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he knew where all the secret passages were out of the zoo, but Sleepy Joe doesn’t know where any of the secret passages are, or at least not the best secret passages because only I know the best secret passages, everyone agrees, but at least Sleepy Joe is not as dumb as Madonna, who is one of the biggest disgraces anyone has ever seen, no one has ever seen anything like it, because Madonna sang lots of songs that were great like Starlight, Star Bright, one of my favorite songs, it’s a great song, one of the best songs anyone has ever heard, but that’s only because it was written by me and stolen by Nikki, who sung it for herself and took all the credit, and believe me, I know everything there is to know about taking credit, frankly, and Madonna took all the credit that anyone has ever seen, it’s a total disgrace, the biggest disgrace anyone has ever seen.


    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Madonna, do you have anything to say about these accusations?

    Madonna: I hate Donald Twwummmpp so much, he’s such a fathwist, guh.

    Reilly: A one-track mind, huh?

    Madonna: If Donald Twummppp is elected prethident, he’ll then elect himthelf world ruler and then I’ll have to move to Marth, guh.

    Reilly: New Daddy, do you think I should settle for Madonna?

    Jay Cutler: Never settle. Strive for excellence.

    Reilly: Wow, New Daddy. Thanks for the great advice!

    Jay Cutler: Huh? I was reading this fortune I got out of a fortune cookie.

    Reilly: Come on, New Daddy! Can you stop reading fortune cookies and give your new son some advice?

    Jay Cutler: No.

    Reilly: But New Daddy, I just want your love!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about foods you typically find in Chinese restaurants, Kevin. You already mentioned fortune cookies, Kevin. That’s a good one, Kevin. Let’s get to Kung Pao Chicken, Kevin. Why not touch on Sweet and Sour Pork, Kevin? We can then transition to Peking Roast Duck, Kevin. How about Mapo Tofu, Kevin? Let’s have a fireside chat about Chow Mein, Kevin. We can address Spring Rolls, Kevin. What about Wonton Soup, Kevin? Then, there’s Kevin, Kevin, because you got served in this pre-game chat, Kevin.


    DETROIT OFFENSE: The first thing I did when handicapping this game was check the weather. I often wait on doing so until later in the week because the forecast can change rather quickly. However, I wanted to get a feel for the conditions because of Jared Goff, who has a long history of struggling in rainy, cold and windy environments. Fortunately for Goff, the weather is currently projected to be partly cloudy and 70 degrees with little wind.

    This should feel like a dome game for Goff, who figures to have success against San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers rely on generating pressure with their elite defensive front, but Goff is protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. He should have a clean pocket for most of the game, so he’ll be able to consistently connect with his weapons. This obviously includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a favorable matchup against a team that doesn’t defend slot receivers all that well. In fact, the 49ers struggle to cover receivers, period. Their secondary can be a liability, but it hasn’t been exposed very often because of their terrific pass rush. However, teams with great offensive lines – such as the Packers – have given them fits.

    I also think the Lions will be able to run on the 49ers. San Francisco ranks in the middle of the pack versus the rush, and Aaron Jones just had a terrific performance in the prior round. I like David Montgomery and especially Jahmyr Gibbs to thrive, which will make things even easier for Goff.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers will obviously love to run the ball as well. Their offense flows through Christian McCaffrey, after all. This, however, could be an issue against the Lions. Detroit ranks No. 1 versus ground attacks this season. There’s a decent chance the 49ers won’t be able to establish McCaffrey as a threat on the ground, which would place Brock Purdy into unfavorable down-and-distance situations.

    No problem though, right? Purdy should be able to slice and dice Detroit’s secondary with ease, after all. Well, yes and no. Yes, because the Lions have major issues in their defensive backfield and give up big plays. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle figure to have terrific performances for that reason.

    However, no, because the Lions have an excellent pass rush themselves, and the 49ers don’t protect Purdy as well as you might think. Pro Football Focus ranks the 49ers as the seventh-worst pass protection team, so the blocking problems could fester in a matchup where the opposition can take away the run and generate lots of heat on the opposing quarterback. This is exactly what happened against the Ravens on Christmas. Purdy had numerous turnovers as a result.

    RECAP: I’ve been looking forward to this matchup for a long time. I said last year that the 49ers were fortunate that the Seahawks made it in as the seventh seed and not the Lions. Detroit was a much better team than Seattle, and it matched up very well versus the 49ers. The Lions’ great offensive line should keep Nick Bosa and company at bay, while their run defense figures to limit McCaffrey and force Purdy into throwing against a defense with a solid pass rush. The 49ers are also weakest in the secondary, and Detroit could exploit that liability with St. Brown.

    Well, the time has finally come for this matchup, and I’m going to put my money where my mouth is. I’m considering this as my January NFL Pick of the Month as well. I love the Lions. Not only do they have some matchup edges; they’re also underdogs of way too many points. I actually locked in +7 -110 for five units last Saturday when I saw this line at FanDuel. I thought the spread could drop if the Lions blew out the Buccaneers. That didn’t happen, so we’re still getting this insane point spread. This line should be closer to -3 than -7 with these teams being close to even.

    I’ll decide which of these two games I’ll use as my Pick of the Month later in the week. I already have five units on the Lions, so adding three more is very doable.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Deebo Samuel was DNP for Wednesday’s practice, but he ran at “full speed” to the side. This may sound good, but running full speed has nothing to do with Samuel’s shoulder. I think Samuel is likely to play, but may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, two Detroit offensive linemen – Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson – missed Wednesday’s practice.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Deebo Samuel practiced fully on Friday, which has caused the line to rise to -7.5 in some sportsbooks. Samuel may not be 100 percent, but even if he is, I still love the Lions. Jonah Jackson will be out, but Frank Ragnow also practiced fully on Friday and doesn’t carry an injury designation.

    PLAYER PROPS: We won with Christian McCaffrey’s under 18.5 rushing attempts last week, so let’s do that again. McCaffrey barely gets over 18 as it is, and the 49ers could be trailing in this game. The best number is under 18.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

    Brandon Aiyuk failed last week, so I like him to rebound in this matchup against a Lions team that allows lots of big plays to receivers. We saw Mike Evans hit last week, so Aiyuk should be able to repeat what Evans did. Aiyuk’s prop of 75.5 is lower than his seasonal average of 80.8. The best number is over 75.5 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    Speaking of the 49ers passing attack, I don’t think Brock Purdy will play particularly well in this game, but I think he’ll go over his passing yards prop. I expect the 49ers to be trailing, so that means Purdy will have to throw a lot in the second half. Plus, the last time a quarterback didn’t throw for 300-plus yards against the Lions was Russell Wilson in the middle of December. The best number is over 275.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    And finally, I’m going with the Lions -2.5 alt line, which is +340 at FanDuel. I believe the Lions will win, so I’m going to bet them to prevail by a field goal or more. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SAME-GAME PARLAY: It won’t allow us to include Christian McCaffrey’s rushing attempts in the parlay, so we’re going to put together the other three props – Brandon Aiyuk over 76.5 receiving yards, Brock Purdy over 275.5 passing yards, Lions -2.5 – for a +969 parlay at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson sucks, and Zay Flowers is an idiot. Let’s hope the Lions dont’ disappoint like Baltimore is doing. The best line is Lions +7.5 -110 at Bookmaker. I’m adding two units on top of my five units. The sharps had a slight lean on the 49ers at -7, but not at -7.5.

    The Motivation. Edge: None.

    No edge found.

    The Spread. Edge: Lions. Calculated Spread: 49ers -3.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: .

    Computer Model: 49ers -4.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (743,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.

  • Dan Campbell is 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+.
  • Brock Purdy is 19-4 SU, 14-9 ATS.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -7.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: .

  • The Vegas. Edge: None.

    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (743,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.

  • Dan Campbell is 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+.
  • Brock Purdy is 19-4 SU, 14-9 ATS.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -7.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: .

  • Week 21 NFL Pick: Lions 26, 49ers 23
    Lions +7 (5 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$500
    Lions +7.5 (2 Units – Dual January NFL Pick of the Month) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
    Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey under 18.5 rushing attempts +100 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$55
    Player Prop: Brandon Aiyuk over 75.5 receiving yards -115 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$60
    Brock Purdy over 275.5 passing yards -110 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$55
    Alt Line: Lions -2.5 +340 (0.5 Units to win 1.7) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
    Same-Game Parlay: Brandon Aiyuk over 76.5 receiving yards, Brock Purdy over 275.5 passing yards, Lions -2.5 +969 (0.25 Units to win 2.42) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
    49ers 34, Lions 31

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

    NFL Picks Week 21 – Early Games

    Comments on the 2023 NFL Season’s Games and Picks

    NFL Picks - Sept. 11

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

    2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25

    NFL Power Rankings - June 2

    Review Walt’s Past Record Picking Games

    On the bottom half of our NFL Weekly Lander page is the history of picks Walt maintains. Walt’s Results