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PGA Bets for the 2025 Genesis Invitational:
Golf is back! Sure, we’ve had some tournaments already, but there wasn’t enough data to make informed bets. We now have that required data, so let’s get going with what hopefully is our third-consecutive winning season.
We begin with the Genesis Invitational, which was moved due to the California wildfires. It’ll take place on the Torrey Pines South Course, which is one of the most difficult courses on tour. The last time a tournament was held exclusively on this course, the winner had a score of -6 at the 2021 U.S. Open. The Farmers Open also takes place at Torrey Pines, but that’s played on the north course as well. The north course is much easier than the south course. There’s also expected to be rainy and windy conditions, which will make things even tougher.
Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite at this tournament. He could always win, but Torrey Pines South favors elite driving distance in addition to approach and around-the-green play. Scheffler is No. 3 in my model, so I will not be betting him. Who are the top two golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:
Rory McIroy to win the Genesis Invitational +720 (Bookmaker)
Rory McIlroy has the best course fit for Torrey Pines South. He has top-notch driving power, and he’s terrific with his irons and around-the-green play. The only concern some may have is that he just won a tournament. However, check out how McIlroy has fared in tournaments a week or two following a tournament win dating back to 2012: 3rd, 24th, 1st, 10th, 22nd, 1st, 1st, 8th, 42nd, 36th, 9th, 9th, 49th, 5th, 6th, and 1st. Sure, he’s had some bad results, but he also has four victories in 16 tries. He has six top-five finishes and 11 top-10s.
McIlroy’s odds aren’t that great. The best I’ve found is +720 at Bookmaker. However, BetMGM and Caesars have 20- and 10-percent profit boosts. Granted, they limit you to $20 and $10, respectively, but every little bit counts when the odds are this low. Try to find other places to obtain bonus bets and profit boosts.
Betting 2 Units to win 14.4 (to win +720) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Justin Thomas to win the Genesis Invitational +2053 (Bookmaker)
Justin Thomas is second in my model. He’s top notch when it comes to driving distance, approach, and around-the-green play. Thomas underwent a funk that lasted nearly two years, but it appears as though he has snapped out of it. Dating back to Oct. 27, he has two seconds, a third, and a sixth. He’s poised to win, and he could do it this weekend.
Thomas’ odds are all over the place. He’s 14/1 at Caesars, but +2053 at Bookmaker. This just goes to show how important it is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks so you can always get the best odds.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 30.8 (to win +2053) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Taylor Pendrith to win the Genesis Invitational +4000 (Caesars/FanDuel/DraftKings)
Taylor Pendrith has been on a tear since the second half of last season. He finished 14th at the tour championship, and he has gotten seventh and ninth in the past two tournaments. That seventh place was at Torrey Pines, so Pendrith has had recent success at this course. He’s 10th in my model with only around-the-green play weighing him down.
Betting 0.8 Units to win 32 (to win +4000) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Ramsus Hojgaard to win the Genesis Invitational +4269 (Bookmaker)
Ramsus Hojgaard is new to the PGA Tour, but he has what it takes to win. He just finished tied for 12th at the Phoenix Open, and he has the elite driving distance and approach play to prevail this weekend. He’s not as great around the green, but he still ranks fourth in my model right behind Scheffler. We’re getting him at a nice price of about 42/1. Make sure not to bet him at Caesars where he’s only 30/1!
Betting 0.75 Units to win 32 (to win +4269) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Min Woo Lee to win the Genesis Invitational +6000 (FanDuel)
Like Ramsus Hojgaard, Min Woo Lee finished tied for 12th at Phoenix. He’s similar to Hojgaard, except he’s elite in around the green in addition to driving distance rather than approach. His approach game isn’t bad, however, so he could win this tournament. He ranks sixth in my model, and yet he’s 60/1 at FanDuel and ESPNBet.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
To check out our 2024 PGA Picks, click the link.
To check out our 2023 PGA Picks, click the link.
