PGA Picks (2026 Cognizant): -$205
PGA Picks (2026 Arnold Palmer): -$1,125
PGA Picks (2026): -$1,980
PGA Picks (2025): -$2,725
PGA Picks (2024): +$1,730
PGA Picks (2023): +$7,020
PGA Picks (2020): +$270
PGA Bets for the 2026 Players Championship:
I was hoping we could bounce back from our bad beat at the Cognizant with a win with one of three guys we had in the top six entering the final day at the Arnold Palmer. Collin Morikawa looked like he would be able to catch Daniel Berger for a while. We hedged with Berger, but both of them fell apart, allowing Akshay Bhatia to get the unexpected win. Sucks.
Maybe we’ll get better luck at the Players Championship. The course hosting this event, TPC Sawgrass, is similar to Bay Hill. It requires pristine accuracy and great approach play, but I think the latter is more important here than Bay Hill. Scrambling is also important to save par. Putting means less than it does at a birdie fest, but I still wouldn’t want to wager on a golfer with current severe issues on the green (looking at Aaron Rai.)
Scottie Scheffler is first in the model, so we’ll be playing the “without” markets on some of our bets. Some books have “without Scheffler,” while DraftKings has a “without Scheffler, McIlroy, Fleetwood and Schauffele,” so I’ll make sure to differentiate between the two, as well as any wagers made with Scheffler. It’ll be a mixed bag this week because of how different the odds are everywhere.
Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Players Championship:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Russell Henley
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Matt Fitzpatrick
9. Shane Lowry
10. Seppulon Straka
11. Aaron Rai
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
13. Kurt Kitayama
14. Min Woo Lee
15. Xander Schauffele
16. Ryan Gerard
17. Rory McIlroy
18. Ben Griffin
19. Akshay Bhatia
20. Corey Conners
Collin Morikawa to win the 2026 Players Championship +2000 (DraftKings)
This course is similar to the one last week, so we’re going to be betting some of the same golfers again. Collin Morikawa had a real chance to win last week, but a rotten Sunday forced him into fifth. He’ll have a great chance to be victorious again because of his elite accuracy and approach. Morikawa finished 10th and 13th at this tournament in two of the previous three years, and he’s golfing better now than he was then.
The odds for Morikawa are +2000 outright on DraftKings, which also has +1475 to win without what I’ll call the Four Horsemen (Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Fleetwood). I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +2000 provides slightly better value.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win +2000) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Si Woo Kim to win the 2026 Players Championship without the Four Horsemen +1700 (DraftKings)
I normally ignore Si Woo Kim because his putter is a disaster, but this is a special case because TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye course. Kim has dominated Pete Dye courses over the years, winning here in 2017 and finishing sixth at this tournament a couple of years ago. He also finished sixth at the AmEx earlier this year, which was also on a Pete Dye course.
The odds for Kim are +2300 outright on DraftKings, which also has +1700 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +1700 provides slightly better value.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 25.5 (to win without the Four Horsemen +1700) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Russell Henley to win the 2026 Players Championship +3000 (BetMGM)
Russell Henley is a top-five golfer on tour if you combine only driving accuracy and approach. This makes him a great fit for this course, at least hypothetically. I say that because since 2021, Henley has been cut twice at this event, and his best finish in that span is 13th. However, I’m not a huge believer in course history aside from specific instances, so this shouldn’t preclude Henley from winning this event.
The odds for Henley are +3000 outright on BetMGM, while DraftKings has +2050 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +3000 provides considerable better value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) at BetMGM
Matt Fitzptrick to win the 2026 Players Championship +4100 (DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick finished fifth at the Players two years ago, so we know he can play well on this course. He finished ninth at the Phoenix Open about a month ago, so he’s also been close to winning this year. Fitzpatrick is incredibly accurate off the tee, while he’s gained a high number of strokes on approach in three of his previous four tournaments.
The odds for Fitzpatrick are +4100 outright on DraftKings, which also has +2900 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +4100 provides better value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 41 (to win +4100) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Players Championship +4400 (DraftKings)
Min Woo Lee is known for his power off the tee, but he’s been incredibly accurate off the tee so far this year. This hasn’t translated to any victories yet, but he’s finished sixth, 12th, and second in his previous three tournaments. Lee’s ability to now be accurate and to spike in approach gives him a good chance to prevail at the Players. In two of his three Players appearances, he’s finished sixth and 20th, and he wasn’t as accurate off the tee heading into those tournaments.
The odds for Lee are +4400 outright on DraftKings, which also has +3200 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +4400 provides slightly better value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 44 (to win +4400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Seppulon Straka to win the 2026 Players Championship +5700 (DraftKings)
Our pal Seppulon Straka looks like a great bet at 57/1. He had a great Saturday at Arnold Palmer, and while he didn’t close on Sunday, he’s been hot with his approach and accuracy off the tee. Straka has done well at TPC Sawgrass, finishing 14th, 16th, and ninth in three of his previous four tournaments at this location. Straka, who finished second at Pebble Beach – only behind Morikawa, by the way – seems to be on the verge of winning a tournament.
The odds for Straka are +5700 outright on DraftKings, which also has +4100 to win without the Four Horsemen. I asked ChatGPT to do the math, and it said that betting the +5700 provides better value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 57 (to win +5700) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Players Championship:
TBA
First-Round Leader at the 2026 Players Championship:
We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.
Round 4 Bets at the 2026 Players Championship:
To be added Sunday morning
PGA Bets for the 2026 Arnold Palmer:
Last week hurt. It’s a finish I won’t be forgetting for a long time, and I imagine most of you will feel the same way. Shane Lowry was up three strokes with three holes to go. The live line for him was -2500 or so. He hit the ball into the water on 16 to see his lead shrink a bit. He was still -450 to win entering the 17th hole, but he plopped the ball into the water again. He had such a big lead that he could still have won the tournament with an eagle on the par-five 18th hole, but he couldn’t deliver. Thankfully, we were able to hedge with the winner, but it was still a painful experience because I was already counting the money. It was similar to Justin Thomas’ blown three-stroke lead at the Valspar last year when he hit the ball into the trees and then the sand twice. Given these two finishes, as well as all the bad beats we suffered in the NFL this year, I’m convinced more than ever that I’m cursed.
Let’s hope for better luck at the Arnold Palmer. This tournament is hosted at Bay Hill, which is a course that requires pristine accuracy and great approach play. Scrambling is also important to save par. Putting means less than it does at a birdie fest, but I still wouldn’t want to wager on a golfer with current severe issues on the green (looking at Matt Fitzpatrick and Si Woo Kim.)
Scottie Scheffler is first in the model, so we’ll be playing the “without” markets. Some books have “without Scheffler,” while others have “without Scheffler and McIlroy,” so I’ll make sure to differentiate between the two.
Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Arnold Palmer:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Russell Henley
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Si Woo Kim
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Ryan Gerard
8. Matt Fitzpatrick
9. Nick Taylor
10. Shane Lowry
11. Seppulon Straka
12. Ben Griffin
13. Kurt Kitayama
14. Viktor Hovland
15. J.T. Poston
16. Andrew Putnam
17. Min Woo Lee
18. Lucas Glover
19. Xander Schauffele
20. Sam Stevens
Collin Morikawa to win without Scottie Scheffler the 2026 Arnold Palmer +2200 (DraftKings)
On a course that requires pristine accuracy, how could we not bet on Collin Morikawa, who happens to be the most accurate golfer on tour? Morikawa, with his elite accuracy and great approach, is a tremendous fit for this course, and we know that because he finished second here last year. Morikawa won Pebble Beach almost a month ago and then went on to finish seventh at the Genesis, so he could prevail a second time this year. Betting 1.5 Units to win 33 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +2200) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Russell Henley to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +2600 (DraftKings)
Russell Henley won this tournament last year, which was no surprise, given that his two best traits are accuracy and approach. He has an eighth-place finish earlier this year, but is coming off a missed cut, so I expect him to be focused entering this weekend.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 39 (to win +2600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Kurt Kitayama to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy +3500 (Caesars)
Kurt Kitayama is known for his power off the tee and great approach play, but he’s been surprisingly accurate off the tee so far this year. He’s been incredibly accurate in four of his five tournaments this season, which allowed him to finish second at the Genesis. If this continues, Kitayama will have a good chance of prevailing at the Arnold Palmer, which we know is possible because he won this tournament in 2023. As a bonus, we’re somehow getting a better number for Kitayama to win without both Scheffler and McIroy and Caesars than we are to win without only Scheffler elsewhere.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy +3500) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +4400 (DraftKings)
Ryan Gerard has never played at this course, but he has the traits to succeed. He’s accurate off the tee, while his approach play is elite. He has two second-place finishes this year, one of which was behind Scheffler at the AmEx, so I like his chances of repeating that at 45/1 odds.
Betting 1 Unit to win 44 (to win without Scottie Scheffler +4400) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Seppulon Straka to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +4600 (DraftKings)
Our pal Seppulon Straka looks like a great bet at 46/1. He finished second at Pebble Beach earlier in the year, so perhaps he’ll have a great tournament this weekend. Straka seems great here at Bay Hill because of his strong accuracy and approach play. These traits allowed him to finish fifth at the Arnold Palmer last year.
Betting 1 Unit to win 46 (to win +4600) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer without Scottie Scheffler +33000 (DraftKings)
The best long shot here is Andrew Putnam at a staggering 330/1 to win without Scheffler. This is exactly what he did at the AmEx, where he finished second with a couple of other golfers, including Gerard. Granted, he’s missed the cut in 2-of-2 tournaments since then, but Putnam has a specific skill set where he can be productive at specific courses. Putnam has no power to his game at all, but he’s extremely accurate. This helps him at tricky courses such as Bay Hill, where he finished eighth two years ago.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 165 (to win +16500) at DraftKings DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Arnold Palmer:
TBA
First-Round Leader at the 2026 Arnold Palmer:
We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.
Round 4 Bets at the 2026 Arnold Palmer:
Daniel Berger to win -122 (2 Units) – DraftKings
PGA Bets for the 2026 Cognizant Classic:
The 2026 Genesis Invitational started well for us, as we won with Rory McIlroy being the first-round leader at +2150. It was a four-way dead heat, but it was still a winning wager. Unfortunately, nothing went our way after that. We appeared to have a chance with Min Woo Lee, but he had a meltdown on Saturday.
We now have the Cognizant Classic, which is a weak field at a birdie-fest golf course. Putting and scrambling are important, but approach is the key factor at this course. Also, the Cognizant Classic tournament is not a bomber fest by any means. Golfers don’t need to be deadly accurate, but spraying the ball all over the place will get those who do so in major trouble.
Who are the other top golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:
Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Cognizant Classic:
1. Ryan Gerard
2. Shane Lowry
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
4. Aaron Rai
5. David Lipsky
6. Mac Meissner
7. Andrew Putnam
8. Sami Valimaki
9. Tom Kim
10. Nicolai Hojgaard
11. Eric Cole
12. Hao-Tong Li
13. Matt Wallace
14. Stephan Jaegar
15. Will Zalatoris
16. Thorbjorn Olesen
17. Rasmus Hojgaard
18. Davis Thompson
19. Zachary Bauchou
20. John Parry
Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +1850 (DraftKings)
DraftKings has some amazing deals to win the Cognizant. Ryan Gerard is +1400 to +1600 in most other sportsbooks, but he’s +1850 on DraftKings. Gerard is the favorite for good reason. He’s one of the top approach players in this field, and he’s an accuracy-over-strength golfer. He can also put extremely well, though that wasn’t the case at the Genesis.
Gerard has also been on the cusp of winning this year. He has two second-place finishes, with one coming at the AmEx, where Scottie Scheffler prevailed. There’s no Scheffler in this field, so that bodes well for Gerard. Betting 1.5 Units to win 27.8 (to win +1850) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Shane Lowry to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +1900 (DraftKings)
Shane Lowry is probably the best golfer at this tournament, which makes you wonder why he’s not the favorite. Lowry’s approach is the best part of his game, and it’s been excellent so far to start this season. It helped him finish eighth at Pebble Beach, where he competed against golfers who are much better than those in this poor field. Lowry’s great approach allowed him to finish fourth at the Cognizant two years ago, so perhaps he’ll win this time.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 28.5 (to win +1900) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Aaron Rai to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +4656 (Bookmaker)
If there’s one golfer who’s know for being accurate over powerful, it’s Aaron Rai. The 30-year-old is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, and he’s also very good with his approach. He hasn’t had much success this year – outside of his first round at the Genesis – but this golf course is most suited to his skill set.
Betting 1 Unit to win 46.5 (to win +4656) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Mac Meissner to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +4700 (DraftKings)
Mac Meissner is a very well-rounded golfer with no weaknesses. He’s not overly accurate, but his approach is the best part of his game. Meissner has had a few weeks removed from the Phoenix Open, where he finished 18th against a far tougher field.
Betting 1 Unit to win 47 (to win +4700) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +4806 (Bookmaker)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, or “Alphabet Soup,” as we call him, is another golfer with impecccable accuracy off the tee. He has no power, but that’s not relevant at this tournament. Alphabet Soup has plus approach and putting skills, making him a great play at 48/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 48.05 (to win +4806) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
David Lipsky to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +15500 (DraftKings)
We’re going with two mega long shots this week. The first is David Lipsky, who most recently finished 18th at the Farmers Open. Lipsky has no power to his game, but that’s OK at this course. Lipsky is very accurate and has shown quality approach thus far early in the season. Lipsky finished third twice last year, so there’s definitely a chance he could win this tournament.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 77.5 (to win +15500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Andrew Putnam to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic +16500 (DraftKings)
I can’t believe Andrew Putnam is 165/1. That’s insane. Putnam is a very accurate golfer who finished second in one of his two tournaments this year. He had an 11th-place finish at the Cogniant last year, so we know that he can do well at this tournament.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 82.5 (to win +16500) at DraftKings DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Cognizant Classic:
First-Round Leader at the 2026 Cognizant Classic:
We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.
Round 4 Bets at the 2026 Cognizant Classic:
Nico Echavarria to win +170 (3 Units) – FanDuel
Nico Echavarria to win +335 (1 Unit) – DraftKings
Both plays were posted quickly on X because of the combine.
PGA Bets for the 2026 Genesis Invitational:
Golf is back! Sure, we’ve had some tournaments already, but there wasn’t enough data to make informed bets. We now have that required data, so let’s get going with what hopefully is a bounce-back 2026 season.
We begin with the Genesis Invitational, which was moved last year due to the California wildfires. It’ll take place at Riveria Country Club, which emphasizes approach play above all else. It’s a long course, so driving distance is significant, but not totally necessary. Scrambling is also key here, as is putting, but to a lesser extent.
Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite at this tournament. He could always win, but he’s never finished above seventh at Riveria. This is surprising because he’s the best approach player on tour, but then again, Scheffler is not a bomber, so the bombers will have an advantage over him off the tee. Still, he’s No. 1 in the model.
Who are the other top golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:
Here are the top golfers in my model for the 2026 Genesis Invitational:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Maverick McNealy
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Chris Gotterup
8. Min Woo Lee
9. Ryan Gerard
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Collin Morikawa
12. Ryo Hisastune
13. Cameron Young
14. Si Woo Kim
15. Matt Fitzpatrick
16. Kurt Kitayama
17. Pierceson Coody
18. Shane Lowry
19. Taylor Pendrith
20. Russell Henley
Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +2000 (FanDuel)
We’re going to enter the Without Scottie Scheffler for our bets because Scheffler is such an overwhelming favorite to win in our model (even though we’re not betting on him.)
My favorite golfer to win the Genesis is Hideki Matsuyama. He won this event the last time it was played at Riveria, and it’s easy to see why. Matsuyama is sixth in approach and first in scrambling amongst all the golfers in this tournament. He’s not a bomber, but he drives the ball well enough to compete at courses like this.
Furthermore, Matsuyama has been hot lately. He finished second at the Phoenix Open and eighth at Pebble Beach. He should be ready to win this tournament.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win +2000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Chris Gotterup to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +2800 (BetMGM)
Chris Gotterup has been the hottest golfer on tour to begin the year. He has two wins in four tournaments, and perhaps he’ll get a third at a course that suits his skills. Gotterup has great power off the tee, so he’ll be able to have an advantage over the weaker golfers at this event. His approach play and scrambling have also been terrific, so it’s not like he’s some one-trick pony. There’s a reason why he’s prevailed at two tournaments thus far. The odds aren’t as great as they would have been a few weeks ago, but Gotterup is still worth betting at 28/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at BetMGM
Maverick McNealy to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +3500 (Caesars)
Maverick McNealy is fourth in my model. He has positive marks in all three major categories, namely approach and driving distance. McNealy has finished 10th and 13th in two of his previous three tournaments, so while he hasn’t nearly won a tournament this year, he has golfed well and could challenge for the win at this event.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Min Woo Lee to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +4000 (Caesars)
Min Woo Lee just finished second at Pebble Beach because of spiked approach play. Lee isn’t the best approach player by any means, but he’s decent in that element of his game, and if he can repeat what he did in that regard last week, then he can win this event because he has great driving distance and solid scrambling ability.
Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win +4000) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Ryan Gerard to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +5100 (DraftKings)
Ryan Gerard has two second-place finishes this year, but he’d have a first-place finish if Scottie Scheffler hadn’t been at the AmEx. Gerard has decent power off the tee, but his calling card is his excellent approach play, which bodes well for him at this tournament. Gerard is hit or miss as far as scrambling is concerned, but his putter has been hot.
Betting 1 Unit to win 51 (to win +5100) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Ryo Hisatsune to win the 2026 Genesis Invitational without Scottie Scheffler +8700 (DraftKings)
Here’s our long shot of the week, though I don’t think Ryo Hisatsune should be this much of a long shot. In his previous three tournaments, Hisatsune has finished second, 10th, and eighth. He has spiked in all three major categories necessary to win at this course, as well as putting. Hisatsune has been an inconsistent putter over the years, but if he’s found something to fix that element of his game, then he can certainly win here with his solid driving distance and quality approach play.
Betting 1 Unit to win 87 (to win +8700) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Matchups and Make/Miss Cut at the 2026 Genesis Invitational:
These bets are for 72 holes.
Ryo Hisatsune is one of our picks to win outright (without Scottie Scheffler), so I like him over the 60th golfer in our model. Corey Conners’ putting has been a disaster this year, so I’ll be surprised if he does well at this tournament.
First-Round Leader at the 2026 Genesis Invitational:
We’re taking some shots here on the first-round leader. Almost all of these golfers rank highly in “birdie or better percentage” or have a good track record in the first round. These golfers are all teeing off in the morning when the conditions will be better.
Round 4 Bets at the 2026 Genesis Invitational:
To be added Sunday morning
