PGA Picks (2025 Mexico Open): -$660
PGA Picks (2025 Cognizant): -$370
PGA Picks (2025 Arnold Palmer): -$665
PGA Picks (2025 Players): -$40
PGA Picks (2025 Valspar): +$180
PGA Picks (2025): -$2,130
PGA Picks (2024): +$1,730
PGA Picks (2023): +$7,020
PGA Picks (2020): +$270
PGA Bets for the 2025 Houston Open:
Wow, what a choke job. We had Justin Thomas at 20/1 last week. He was having a great Sunday and went up three strokes with three holes remaining. Then, on 16, the meltdown began. He hit the ball into the trees and then a sand trap. Viktor Hovland birdied the same hole to force a tie. Hovland then took the lead, as Thomas bogeyed 18. We hedged with Hovland, but we would’ve won so much more money had Thomas not suffered a meltdown.
The Houston Open is next. This tournament will feature the top two golfers on tour, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but I will not be betting either prior to tee time. This is a distance-over-accuracy course, which usually doesn’t benefit Scheffler, and it’s not like Scheffler is putting well right now. McIlroy, meanwhile, is coming off a win at the Players, and he’ll be using this tournament to prep for the Masters. I’m not opposed to value betting either at some point if we get a great number, but I don’t have any interest in either golfer at the moment.
Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Houston Open, per request:
1. Rory McIroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Davis Thompson
4. Stephan Jaegar
5. Min Woo Lee
6. Wyndham Clark*
7. Aaron Rai
8. Michael Kim
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Jake Knapp
11. Harris English
12. Jason Day
13. Alex Smalley
14. Sahith Theegala
15. Tony Finau*
16. J.J. Spaun
17. Jacob Bridgeman
18. Ryan Fox
19. Max Greyserman
20. Thomas Detry
* – I’ve heard rumors that Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau are dealing with injuries.
Davis Thompson to win the Houston Open +3700 (Bookmaker)
Davis Thompson, coming off a 10th-place finish at the Players, ranks third in my model. This is an excellent course for him, as Memorial Park requires two of three traits: great bombing, elite iron play, or amazing scrambling/putting. Thompson is proficient in all three areas. Approach is the weakest of the three, but he’s been much better in that regard in the previous four tournaments.
Betting 1 Units to win 37 (to win +3700) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Min Woo Lee to win the Houston Open +4000 (FanDuel)
Min Woo Lee is a great driver of the ball. He’s also great around the greens, and his putter is on at the moment. He’s weakest when it comes to approach, but he’s not horrible in that regard. Lee has finished between 11th and 20th in four of the six tournaments this year, so he’s been right on the cusp of contending for a win. Given how much this course suits him, he could get there this week.
Betting 1 Unit to win 40 (to win +4000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Stephan Jaegar to win the Houston Open +4500 (DraftKings)
Few golfers drive the ball nearly as well as Stephan Jaegar, who won the Houston Open last year. I find this price on Jaegar to be staggering because it’s not like he’s golfing poorly this year. Jaegar has third- and sixth-place finishes this season, and we know that this course is perfect for him. Jaegar is fourth in my model, so I love getting him at 45/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 45 (to win +4500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Michael Kim to win the Houston Open +5426 (Bookmaker)
Many people bet on Michael Kim a couple of weeks ago at the Players when he was coming off a fourth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Kim proceeded to miss the cut. Now that people have jumped off the bandwagon, it’s time to get on, given that he’s eighth in the model. Kim has second-, fourth-, and sixth-place finishes this year. He projects to do very well at this course, and I love the 54/1 price we’re getting at Bookmaker because he’s 28/1 at several books and 35/1 at some others.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.1 (to win +5426) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Maverick McNealy to win the Houston Open +6000 (BetRivers)
Maverick McNealy has been inconsistent this year. He’s finished second, eighth, and ninth in three tournaments this season, but he also missed the cut in the previous two tournaments. However, this is a great course for him. McNealy’s weakness is accuracy, and Memorial Park doesn’t punish golfers for poor accuracy because of the wide fairways and short rough. McNealy drives the ball incredibly well, and he’s been mostly positive with his irons this year.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Jake Knapp to win the Houston Open +9000 (Bookmaker)
I can’t believe Jake Knapp is 90/1 at Bookmaker. Knapp, ranking 10th in my model, matches up very well at this course. He drives the ball with great power, while his irons and putter are both excellent right now. Knapp’s biggest weakness is his driving accuracy, but as mentioned earlier, golfers are not punished for that trait on this course. Knapp has been very close to winning lately – sixth and 12th in two of the previous three tournaments – so he’ll have a good chance to break through this weekend.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 45 (to win +3600) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Harris English to win the Houston Open +9000 (FanDuel)
Harris English, ranking in 11th in my model, already has a win this year at the Farmers Insurance. It’s been two months since that victory, so English could be hungry again. This is a great course for English, who drives the ball very well and is solid with his irons.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 36 (to win +3600) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Houston Open
Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Houston Open
Stephan Jaeger to finish top 10 +360 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Maverick McNealy to finish top 10 +400 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Jake Knapp to finish top 10 +550 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Ryan Fox to finish top 20 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Danny Walker to finish top 20 +550 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
I’ve discussed Jaeger, McNealy, and Knapp already, so I’ll touch on the other two. Ryan Fox is in the top 20 of my model, while Danny Walker is 33rd. Both have finished in the top 20 in two of their seven tournaments this year. I wouldn’t like Walker so much at Fox’s price, but +550 is a very good value.
Matchups at the Houston Open
These are for 72 holes.
Si Woo Kim over Tony Finau -109 (1.09 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Michael Kim over Sungjae Im -103 (1.03 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Si Woo Kim is not a power driver, but he does everything else well for this course. He can win this matchup easily if Finau is injured, as mentioned earlier. Sungjae Im’s game is in rough shape right now, so Michael Kim looks great at -103.
FanDuel and DraftKings haven’t posted their matchups yet, so I may have more matchup picks later.
Round 4 Bets at the Houston Open:
To be posted on Sunday
PGA Bets for the 2025 Valspar Championship:
Collin Morikawa was great last week – if Round 3 was excluded. He shot five over on Saturday, so if it wasn’t for that, he would have tied Rory McIlroy and J.J. Spaun. Sigh. The good news is that we hit every single one of our matchup bets last week. We would have won money overall if it wasn’t for our Round 4 bets.
Next comes the Valspar Championship, where massive underdogs have won in recent years. Last season, Peter Malnati prevailed despite being 350/1 entering the tournament. There are many great golfers in this field, but no one in the upper tier unless you want to count Xander Schauffele. The problem with Schauffele, however, is that he doesn’t appear to be fully healthy. He had a rib injury a couple of months ago and seems to have returned prematurely. Perhaps we’ll get a better number on him down the road when he’s closer to being 100 percent, but we won’t be betting him as one of the top favorites.
The other top favorite, Tommy Fleetwood, is someone I have atop my model. However, at 12/1, he doesn’t provide very good value on a course with some major variance. I’ll be looking for a better number to bet him during the weekend.
Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Valspar Championship, per request:
1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Justin Thomas
3. Shane Lowry
4. Seppulon Straka
5. Alex Smalley
6. Lucas Glover
7. Michael Kim
8. Andrew Putnam
9. Corey Conners
10. Ben Griffin
11. Sam Burns
12. Will Zalatoris
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
14. J.T. Poston
15. Xander Schauffele*
16. Jacob Bridgeman
17. Stephan Jaegar
18. Matt Kuchar
19. Beau Hossler
20. Bud Cauley
* – Xander Schauffele is coming off injury and may not be completely healthy yet.
Justin Thomas to win the Valspar Championship +2000 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Justin Thomas is 14/1 or 15/1 in many sportsbooks, but he’s 20/1 at FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s second in my model, thanks to his great iron play and scrambling, which are vital at Innisbrook. Thomas has been close to winning some tournaments this year, with second-, sixth-, and ninth-place finishes. On top of that, Thomas has a positive course history at Innisbrook, with two top-10 finishes in the past three years, including third place in 2022. I’m not a big course history guy, but it says something that Thomas finished highly when he wasn’t playing as well as he is this year.
Betting 1.25 Units to win 25 (to win +2000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Shane Lowry to win the Valspar Championship +3500 (DraftKings)
Shane Lowry’s odds are all over the place, with some books pricing him as low as 22/1. However, he’s 35/1 at DraftKings, which seems like an incredible bargain. Lowry has gotten 11th or better in three of his previous five tournaments, including second place at Pebble Beach. He was 20th last week, but had a rough start and finished strong. He is third in my model because of his great approach and scrambling. I worry about his putting, which tends to be inconsistent, but if he’s strong in that regard this week, he can definitely win.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Corey Conners to win the Valspar Championship +3500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has been on fire this year. He has third-, fifth-, and sixth-place finishes. His putter is hot right now, so he can definitely win this tournament. Conners’ strengths are accuracy and approach, which are two of the three vital attributes you need at Innisbrook. He’s as low as 20/1 at some books, but FanDuel has him listed at 35/1. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Alex Smalley to win the Valspar Championship +7000 (FanDuel)
My eyes popped out of my head when I saw the Alex Smalley 70/1 number because he’s 40/1 at some sportsbooks. Smalley ranks fifth in my model. He’s been on fire lately, coming through for us on a top-20 bet last week. He’s finished 21st or better in every single tournament this year. He profiles as the sort of golfer who wins this tournament as a long shot who is excellent around the green.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 35 (to win +7000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Lucas Glover to win the Valspar Championship +7000 (FanDuel)
OK, now my eyes have not only popped out of my head, but they’ve moved out of my house and settled into a nice cottage in the countryside. I can’t believe we’re getting 70/1 with Lucas “Automatic” Glover at FanDuel when he’s 33/1 at some sportsbooks. Glover is sixth in my model. He’s one of the most accurate golfers on tour, and he’s terrific at approach and scrambling. If his putter works, he can win any tournament that doesn’t require bombing, which is not the case at Innisbrook. Glover has two top-three finishes this year, including last week’s result, so he’s on the cusp of winning.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 35 (to win +7000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Andrew Putnam to win the Valspar Championship +17500 (ESPNBet)
In honor of Malnati winning last year, we need to bet a super long shot. How about Andrew Putnam? He has zero driving distance ability, but that’s not required at this tournament. Putnam is very accurate, and he’s great around the green, which is why he’s eighth in the model. He finished 11th at the Cognizant, so perhaps this is a sign that he can compete near the top of the leaderboard.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 43.8 (to win +17500) at ESPNBet
Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Valspar Championship (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Lucas Glover to finish top 10 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Alex Smalley to finish top 10 +500 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Bud Cauley to finish top 20 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Bud Cauley is an inspiring story. He got into a car accident in 2018 that caused him to miss several years of golf. He looks like he’s finally back to full strength in the wake of his sixth-place finish last year. He’s in the top 20 of my model, so I like him at +290.
Matchups at the Valspar Championship (FanDuel/Bookmaker)
These are for 72 holes.
Sam Burns over Xander Schauffele +110 (1 Units to win 1.1) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Jake Knapp over Viktor Hovland +130 (1 Unit to win 1.3) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Jacob Bridgeman over Kurt Kitayama -118 (1.18 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
We’re going to continue to fade Schauffele until he proves that he’s back to full strength. We’re also going to fade Viktor Hovland, whose game is a complete mess right now. The same can be said of Kurt Kitayama’s short game, so I like Jacob Bridgeman over him.
Round 4 Bets at the Valspar Championship:
Victor Hovland to win +170 (2 Units)
Bud Cauley to win +1800 (1 Unit)
Victor Hovland to win +400 (0.5 Units)
Nico Echavarria to win +600 (0.5 Units)
Hovland is a hedge on our bets, and Cauley’s odds are ridiculous right now.
PGA Bets for the 2025 Players Championship:
Well, that blew. We bet Russell Henley at 28/1 at the Cognizant. He was the favorite at one point in the final round, but imploded at the 11th hole. We didn’t bet Henley the following week because the course wasn’t as friendly for him, and he was in a tougher field, and yet he prevailed, thanks to an eagle on one of the final holes. Couldn’t he have done that at the easier course against worse competition!?
Perhaps betting a non-winning golfer who nearly prevailed is the best course of action. As it so happens, the No. 1 golfer in our model qualifies as such. That would be Collin Morikawa, who is priced at 14/1. Morikawa is built for this course, TPC Sawgrass, which requires elite iron play, great scrambling ability, and accuracy to a lesser extent.
Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Players Championship, per request:
1. Collin Morikawa
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Russell Henley
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Justin Thomas
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Shane Lowry
8. Michael Kim
9. Rory McIlroy
10. Tony Finau
11. Ben Griffin
12. Hideki Matsuyama
13. Xander Schauffele*
14. Denny McCarthy
15. Robert MacIntyre
16. Seppulon Straka
17. Andrew Putnam
18. J.T. Poston
19. Nick Taylor
20. Greyson Sigg
* – Xander Schauffele is coming off injury and may not be completely healthy yet.
Collin Morikawa to win the Players Championship +1400 (FanDuel)
Hopefully we get a repeat of what happened last week with Henley. Morikawa was in the lead for most of Sunday. He was a substantial favorite at one point, but Henley got there with his eagle. Morikawa has been excellent this season with two second-place finishes. He’s on the cusp of prevailing at a tournament, and this course is perfect for him.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 21 (to win +1400) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Tommy Fleetwood to win the Players Championship +3000 (FanDuel)
Tommy Fleetwood is another golfer who has been on the cusp of winning. He finished fifth and 11th in his previous two tournaments. He also projects extremely well for this course. His iron play is elite, and he’s superb when it comes to accuracy and scrambling. He ranks fourth in my model, yet he’s 30/1 at FanDuel.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Shane Lowry to win the Players Championship +4880 (Bookmaker)
Shane Lowry has enjoyed some high finishes at the Players Championship over the years, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. His elite iron play and scrambling give him a great chance to prevail. He’s finished second and seventh this year, so he’s another player knocking on the door.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 24.4 (to win +4880) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Michael Kim to win the Players Championship +7847 (Bookmaker)
Speaking of golfers knocking on the door, Michael Kim has been among the top finishers at every tournament since Feb. 9. His past five results have been: 4th, 6th, 13th, 13th, and 2nd. He’s done great work with his swing and projects well at this tournament.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 31.4 (to win +7847) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Ben Griffin to win the Players Championship +14150 (Bookmaker)
Here’s our super long shot, though Ben Griffin should definitely not be priced this highly. He’s having a great season with two fourths and a seventh. He also projects well for this course, sitting just outside of the top 10 of our model.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 35.4 (to win +14150) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Top 10/Top 20 Bets at the Players Championship (FanDuel/DraftKings)
I’m going to bet a half unit on each of these. Hitting one of these will make us money.
Shane Lowry to finish top 10 +330 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Michael Kim to finish top 10 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Ben Griffin to finish top 20 +300 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Alex Smalley to finish top 20 +360 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Jacob Bridgeman to finish top 20 +450 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Andrew Putnam to finish top 20 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
I have Lowry and Kim in the top 10 of my model, so getting them at +330 and +450 seems great. Ben Griffin, Alex Smalley, Jacob Bridgeman, and Andrew Putnam are all in the top 20, save for Smalley, but he’s 26th, and I like his number at +360.
Matchups at the Players Championship (FanDuel/Bookmaker)
These are for 72 holes.
Patrick Cantlay over Xander Schauffele +110 (1 Units to win 1.1) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Will Zalatoris over Viktor Hovland -120 (1.2 Units to win 1) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Shane Lowry over Sungjae Im -119 (1.19 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Denny McCarthy over Tom Kim -122 (1.22 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Alex Smalley over Byeong Hun An -103 (1.03 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
I’m mostly fading highly regarded golfers who are not playing well right now. Xander Schauffele is coming off injury, so I don’t expect him to perform well. Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, and Tom Kim look broken right now, and I have their opponents much higher in my model. Byeong Hun An is a horrible fit for thise couse. He’s 80 spots lower than Smalley in the model.
Round 4 Bets at the Players Championship:
I can’t believe how poorly Collin Morikawa collapsed in the third round. He entered the day with the best probability to win, per DataGolf. Yet, he imploded with a +5, which is very uncharacteristic for him.
Morikawa is too far behind to win, but we’ll be betting some other players:
0.5 units on Lucas Glover to win +1100 (Bookmaker – Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker) 0.5 units on Corey Conners to win +1600 (BetMGM) 0.25 units on Seppulon Straka to win +2200 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel) 0.5 units on Seppulon Straka top-five finish +210 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel) 0.5 units on Patrick Cantlay top-five finish +200 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel) 0.5 units on Collin Morikawa top-10 finish +220 (FanDuel – Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel)
Of the guys in the top four, I lke Lucas Glover and Corey Conners the most. Glover is a great fit for this course, but I was concerned about his age (45), so I didn’t bet him. We’ll make amends for that now. Conners had a third-place finish last week.
Our guy Seppulon Straka deserves some consideration as well. As one of the golf guys, Nuggets, tends to point out, Straka saves his best for rounds 2 and 4.
I like betting Straka and Patrick Cantlay to finish in the top five. Cantlay’s nickname is Cantwin, but he has two top-five finishes this year. Meanwhile, perhaps Morikawa can make amends for his ghastly third round by getting back into the top 10.
PGA Bets for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational:
We had a terrible Sunday at the Cognizant Classic. Three golfers of ours were in contention to win entering the final round. One of them, Russell Henley, was the betting favorite for about a half hour at one point. And then, he got to the 11th hole and completely imploded, ultimately finishing sixth. Furthermore, we had a bet on Joel Dahmen to finish in the top 20 and to beat Charley Hoffman. Dahmen was 13th entering Sunday and had a four-stroke lead on Hoffman. He had an even worse implosion, constantly hitting the ball into the rough down the stretch. Brutal beats.
We’re back to a talent-laden field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This takes place at Bay Hill, which is one of the toughest courses on tour. It exposes weaknesses, and golfers must be either top-tier elite in one of the three main categories (distance, approach, scrambling) or extremely well balanced in the three. Given the difficulty of this course, it’s no surprise that Scottie Scheffler dominated this tournament last year, winning by five strokes. Here’s the top 20 of my model for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, per request:
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Justin Thomas
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Xander Schauffele*
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Maverick McNealy
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Min Woo Lee
12. Collin Morikawa
13. Tony Finau
14. Adam Scott
15. Sam Burns
16. Davis Thompson
17. Stephan Jaegar
18. Shane Lowry
19. Cam Davis
20. Keegan Bradley
* – Xander Schauffele is coming off injury and may not be completely healthy yet.
Scottie Scheffler to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +406 (Bookmaker)
The odds aren’t great, but I’m betting Scottie Scheffler to win the Arnold Palmer. It’s no accident that he dominated this tournament last year. I don’t see why that wouldn’t happen again. Of course, there’s lots of variance in golf, so we’ll also be betting some of the longer shots, as well as Justin Thomas, but this is a perfect course for Scheffler because he has no liabilities that can be exposed. He’s also the best approach player on tour.
Betting 2.5 Units to win 10.15 (to win +406) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Justin Thomas to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +2800 (FanDuel)
Justin Thomas is the other top golfer I’m betting this week. He’s second in the model, yet he’s 28/1 on FanDuel. Thomas is having a great year with three top-10 finishes in five tournaments, including second place at the AmEx. He has great driving distance and approach play, and he’s also solid around the green. Thomas finished 12th at the Arnold Palmer last year, but wasn’t golfing as well back then as he is now. I don’t want to pass up on this value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Maverick McNealy to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +6695 (Bookmaker)
Maverick McNealy is eighth in my model, so this is a great price. McNealy, like Thomas, has three top-10 finishes this year, including second at the Genesis. He’s stellar when it comes to driving distance and approach play. He’s not as good around the green, but with high ratings at two of the three key attributes, McNealy could definitely win this weekend.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 26.8 (to win +6695) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Will Zalatoris to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +7500 (FanDuel)
Will Zalatoris also excels at the proper attributes to win at the Arnold Palmer. We saw it last year when he finished fourth at this tournament despite not being 100 percent from his back injury. Zalatoris’ weakness is putting, which is not as crucial at this tournament. He’s ninth in my model, so he’s a steal at 55/1.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 22.3 (to win +5577) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Stephan Jaegar to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +16193 (Bookmaker)
When I wrote earlier that a golfer can win the Arnold Palmer by being top-tier elite in one category, one of the participants I was thinking of is Stephan Jaegar. The sixth-place finisher from the Mexico Open is one of the best bombers on tour. The thing is, Jaegar’s not bad when it comes to approach play or scrambling. He’s 17th in my model, yet he’s an unreal 162/1 at Bookmaker.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 33.4 (to win +16193) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Top 20 Bets at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (DraftKings)
I’m going to bet a half unit on each of these. Hitting one of these will make us money. Keep in mind that this is a 70-golfer field, so the payouts for top 20s won’t be as lucrative as usual.
Stephan Jaegar to finish top 20 +240 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Cam Davis to finish top 20 +280 (0.5 Units) – DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
I discussed Jaegar already. Cam Davis is also in the top 20 of my model. He’s finished in the top 20 in three of his five tournaments this year, including fifth at Pebble Beach. He’s a well-rounded golfer with no weakness.
Live Bets (FanDuel)
Golfers have been imploding all week at this tournament, and it could happen to the guys at the top on Sunday. I’ve decided to spray a bit on the following:
Jason Day +1000 (0.75 Units)
Tony Finau +3500 (0.2 Units)
Shane Lowry +7000 (0.1 Units)
Seppulon Straka +8000 (0.1 Units)
PGA Bets for the 2025 Cognizant Classic:
I made a couple of mistakes in evaluating the Mexico Open. First, I didn’t put enough emphasis on putting. Kurt Kitayama, the favorite, didn’t even make the cut because of terrible putting. Second, I didn’t evaluate how golfers had done this season and instead looked at their previous 25 tournaments. I will fix these errors moving forward.
Despite this, nothing we would have done at the Mexico Open would have mattered because some Korn Ferry Tour golfer named Brian Campbell won. The KFT is basically the minor leagues of golf, so we didn’t have any data on Campbell. His win was inexplicable because he didn’t have the traits to thrive at the Mexico Open.
Campbell, ironically, is a much better fit at this course, which requires elite iron play, plus quality accuracy and putting. Here’s the top 10 of my model for the Cognizant Classic, per request:
1. Russell Henley
2. Seppulon Straka
3. Denny McCarthy
4. Shane Lowry
5. Brian Campbell
6. Joel Dahmen
7. Andrew Putnam
8. J.J. Spaun
9. Lee Hodges
10. Lucas “Automatic” Glover
Russell Henley to win the Cognizant Classic +2500 (DraftKings)
I believe Russell Henley should be the favorite because he’s No. 1 in my model. He’s elite in all required categories. He’s had many top-five finishes dating back to last year, including fifth place at the British Open. He also finished seventh at the U.S. Open. He already has a top five this year, so he’s on the cusp of winning a tournament.
Henley’s odds are all over the place. He’s 16/1 at BetRivers, but you can get him at 25/1 at DraftKings. Please remember to shop for the best odds and get the promos, which you can via the link below:
Betting 1.2 Units to win 31 (to win +2500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Seppulon Straka to win the Cognizant Classic +2800 (FanDuel)
Seppulon Straka is our guy, so we have to bet him, especially because he’s second in the model. Straka already has a win this year, as well as a seventh-place finish. This course is perfect for him. Save for a disastrous, weather-related weekend at the Genesis, Straka’s irons play has been elite this season.
Straka’s odds vary like Henley’s. He’s 21/1 at Bookmaker and 22/1 at many other shops, but you can get 28/1 at FanDuel.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Denny McCarthy to win the Cognizant Classic +4000 (FanDuel)
Denny McCarthy comes in third in my model. I don’t know how much to read into this because we only have a small, five-tournament sample size, but McCarthy’s approach play has been so much better this year than it has in the past. He finished fifth at the Genesis, a tournament comprised of all the top golfers, so if he continues to be strong with his irons, he can prevail in this mediocre field.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 30 (to win +4000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Lee Hodges to win the Cognizant Classic +7500 (FanDuel)
We’re getting a great price on Lee Hodges. He’s ninth in my model, yet he’s 75/1 at FanDuel. Hodges has been golfing at a high level this year with two top-10 finishes in five tournaments. This course is perfect for him; he won a tournament at a similar course at the 3M back in 2023.
Joel Dahmen to win the Cognizant Classic +13552 (Bookmaker)
Here’s our long shot of the week. Joel Dahmen has always been excellent when it comes to accuracy and iron play. His game has fallen apart when putting, but something has happened this year. Save for the Phoenix Open, Dahmen has been putting at a high level this year. Perhaps it’s a small, five-tournament sample size, but Dahmen may have found something with his putter. If so, he’ll be in the running to win after finishing sixth and ninth in two tournaments this season.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 40.65 (to win +13552) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Top 20 Bets at the Cognizant Classic (FanDuel)
I’m going to bet a half unit on each of these. Hitting one of these will make us money. Two or more would be fantastic!
Joel Dahmen to finish top 20 +400 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Sam Ryder to finish top 20 +400 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Andrew Putnam to finish top 20 +450 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Dahmen has two top-10s this year, so he can get into the top 20. Sam Ryder finished 21st at this tournament last year. He’s 14th in my model. Putnam is in the top 10 of my model. I don’t trust him to win, but he can have a good finish.
Matchup Bets at the Cognizant Classic (Bookmaker)
I will be betting some lucrative matchups moving forward. You can find these at Bookmaker.
Joel Dahmen over Charley Hoffman -121 (1.21 Units to win 1) – Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Hoffman is a million years old and can’t putt to save his life. Dahmen should be able to beat him easily.
PGA Bets for the 2025 Mexico Open:
We whiffed at the Genesis. I had the winner, Ludvig Aberg, fifth in my model, but I didn’t include him as a bet because of his history of choking at large events. He finally proved that he could win on a big stage. I wish he could have done that when we bet him at the Scottish Open last year when he blew a big lead!
The field is much weaker at the Mexico Open. This isn’t a bad thing, as we don’t have to hedge or have to worry about a +230 Scottie Scheffler win. Besides, we nearly had the winner of the Mexico Open last year when we bet on Sami Valimaki at 110/1 odds. Valimaki had a great chance to win until he hit the ball into the water midway through Round 4. Can we find a huge long shot again at the Mexico Open?
Ramsus Hojgaard to win the Mexico Open +2000 (BetRivers)
Ramsus Hojgaard is No. 1 in my model, and yet he’s 20/1 at BetRivers. Those of you who bet on Hojgaad with me last week may roll your eyes after his horrendous performance at Torrey Pines, but he was unfortunate enough to draw a start time where the weather conditions were absolutely miserable. I’m ignoring what happened last weekend.
To succeed at the Mexico Open, you need to bomb it off the tee, and you need to be great in your approach game. These are the two areas in which Hojgaard excels. He’ll be much better among a weaker field. Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win +2000) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Kurt Kitayama to win the Mexico Open +2200 (FanDuel)
I like Kurt Kitayama almost as much as Ramsus Hojgaard. They are one-two in my model, with Hojgaard beating out Kitamaya by a bit. The slight difference in odds helps offset that.
Kitayama hasn’t played as well as Hojgaard this year, but he thrives in distance off the tee and approach, so this is a great tournament him, especially with the diminished field.
Betting 1.4 Units to win 30.8 (to win +2200) at BetRivers Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers
Michael Kim to win the Mexico Open +2858 (Bookmaker)
Michael Kim is a well-rounded player, but he’s at his best when it comes to driving distance and approach. He’s also extremely hot. He finished second at the Phoenix Open and 13th at the Genesis Invitational, which had much tougher fields than what Kim will see at the Mexico Open.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28.6 (to win +2858) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Kevin Yu to win the Mexico Open +3500 (FanDuel/DraftKings/BetMGM)
Kevin Yu’s odds are all over the place. Some books like Caesars and Bookmaker have him listed at 25/1, but he’s 35/1 at FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM. I’m happy to get such a great number with Yu, who comes in fourth in my model. Yu finished 16th and 17th at the Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational, respectively, despite going against tough fields. This field is much easier for Yu, who thrives when it comes to distance and approach.
Betting 0.8 Units to win 28 (to win +3500) at DraftKings Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Nicolai Hojgaard to win the Mexico Open +4500 (FanDuel)
We’re going to bet on both Hojgaard twins. Ramsus is better than Nicolai, but both excel in the same areas. They both hit the ball extremely hard off the tee, and they’re both terrific with their irons. Nicolai, who ranks third in my model this week, finished 16th at the Masters last year, so he has what it takes in a field far worse than what we saw at Augusta.
Betting 0.8 Units to win 36 (to win +4500) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Antoine Rozner to win the Mexico Open +8661 (Bookmaker)
I have two long shots, and this is my favorite of the two. Antoine Rozner hasn’t played on the PGA Tour very much, but he finished 20th at the British Open two years ago. He hits the ball hard and tends to do well with his irons, so he’ll have a chance to win this tournament. He’s fifth in my model.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 34.6 (to win +8661) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Vincent Norrman to win the Mexico Open +10095 (Bookmaker)
I don’t like Vincent Norrman as much as Antoine Rozner. However, I can’t ignore that Norrman somehow came in sixth in my model. What’s helping Norrman here is that on top of his strong driving distance, his approach game has been better this year than it was in 2024, albeit on a small sample size. Perhaps Norrman has improved this area, and we’re going to be ahead of the game. It could also be possible that we’ve seen some fluky results, but I’m willing to take a shot.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 20.2 (to win +10095) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
PGA Bets for the 2025 Genesis Invitational:
Golf is back! Sure, we’ve had some tournaments already, but there wasn’t enough data to make informed bets. We now have that required data, so let’s get going with what hopefully is our third-consecutive winning season.
We begin with the Genesis Invitational, which was moved due to the California wildfires. It’ll take place on the Torrey Pines South Course, which is one of the most difficult courses on tour. The last time a tournament was held exclusively on this course, the winner had a score of -6 at the 2021 U.S. Open. The Farmers Open also takes place at Torrey Pines, but that’s played on the north course as well. The north course is much easier than the south course. There’s also expected to be rainy and windy conditions, which will make things even tougher.
Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite at this tournament. He could always win, but Torrey Pines South favors elite driving distance in addition to approach and around-the-green play. Scheffler is No. 3 in my model, so I will not be betting him. Who are the top two golfers in the model? Let’s take a look:
Rory McIroy to win the Genesis Invitational +720 (Bookmaker)
Rory McIlroy has the best course fit for Torrey Pines South. He has top-notch driving power, and he’s terrific with his irons and around-the-green play. The only concern some may have is that he just won a tournament. However, check out how McIlroy has fared in tournaments a week or two following a tournament win dating back to 2012: 3rd, 24th, 1st, 10th, 22nd, 1st, 1st, 8th, 42nd, 36th, 9th, 9th, 49th, 5th, 6th, and 1st. Sure, he’s had some bad results, but he also has four victories in 16 tries. He has six top-five finishes and 11 top-10s.
McIlroy’s odds aren’t that great. The best I’ve found is +720 at Bookmaker. However, BetMGM and Caesars have 20- and 10-percent profit boosts. Granted, they limit you to $20 and $10, respectively, but every little bit counts when the odds are this low. Try to find other places to obtain bonus bets and profit boosts.
Betting 2 Units to win 14.4 (to win +720) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Justin Thomas to win the Genesis Invitational +2053 (Bookmaker)
Justin Thomas is second in my model. He’s top notch when it comes to driving distance, approach, and around-the-green play. Thomas underwent a funk that lasted nearly two years, but it appears as though he has snapped out of it. Dating back to Oct. 27, he has two seconds, a third, and a sixth. He’s poised to win, and he could do it this weekend.
Thomas’ odds are all over the place. He’s 14/1 at Caesars, but +2053 at Bookmaker. This just goes to show how important it is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks so you can always get the best odds.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 30.8 (to win +2053) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Taylor Pendrith to win the Genesis Invitational +4000 (Caesars/FanDuel/DraftKings)
Taylor Pendrith has been on a tear since the second half of last season. He finished 14th at the tour championship, and he has gotten seventh and ninth in the past two tournaments. That seventh place was at Torrey Pines, so Pendrith has had recent success at this course. He’s 10th in my model with only around-the-green play weighing him down.
Betting 0.8 Units to win 32 (to win +4000) at Caesars Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars
Ramsus Hojgaard to win the Genesis Invitational +4269 (Bookmaker)
Ramsus Hojgaard is new to the PGA Tour, but he has what it takes to win. He just finished tied for 12th at the Phoenix Open, and he has the elite driving distance and approach play to prevail this weekend. He’s not as great around the green, but he still ranks fourth in my model right behind Scheffler. We’re getting him at a nice price of about 42/1. Make sure not to bet him at Caesars where he’s only 30/1!
Betting 0.75 Units to win 32 (to win +4269) at Bookmaker Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker
Min Woo Lee to win the Genesis Invitational +6000 (FanDuel)
Like Ramsus Hojgaard, Min Woo Lee finished tied for 12th at Phoenix. He’s similar to Hojgaard, except he’s elite in around the green in addition to driving distance rather than approach. His approach game isn’t bad, however, so he could win this tournament. He ranks sixth in my model, and yet he’s 60/1 at FanDuel and ESPNBet.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) at FanDuel Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel
To check out our 2024 PGA Picks, click the link.
To check out our 2023 PGA Picks, click the link.
