PGA Picks (2024 Mexico Open): -$45
PGA Picks (2024 Cognizant): +$200
PGA Picks (2024 Arnold Palmer): -$400
PGA Picks (2024 Players Championship): +$1,500
PGA Picks (2024 Valspar): -$290
PGA Picks (2024 Houston Open): -$395
PGA Picks (2024 Valero Texas Open): +$3,025
PGA Picks (2024 Masters): +$625
PGA Picks (2024 RBC Heritage): -$425
PGA Picks (2024 Zurich Classic): -$480
PGA Picks (2024 Byron Nelson): -$415
PGA Picks (2024 Wells Fargo): -$600
PGA Picks (2024 PGA Championship): -$385
PGA Picks (2024 Charles Schwab): -$390
PGA Picks (2024 Canadian Open): -$705
PGA Picks (2024 Memorial): +$865
PGA Picks (2024 US Open): -$515
PGA Picks (2024 Travelers): -$485
PGA Picks (2024 Rocket Mortgage): -$400
PGA Picks (2024 John Deere): -$340
PGA Picks (2024 Scottish Open): -$430
PGA Picks (2024 British Open): -$265
PGA Picks (2024 3M): -$395
PGA Picks (2024 Wyndham): +$2,520
PGA Picks (2024 St. Jude): -$650
PGA Picks (2024 BMW): -$450
PGA Picks (2024): +$580
PGA Picks (2023): +$7,020
PGA Picks (2020): +$270
PGA Bets for the Tour Championship:
Another heartbreak. We had two chances to win this past Sunday, but Brian Burns and Ludvig Aberg both finished second at one stroke behind Keegan Bradley. We’d be rich if we just bet on golfers to finish in second place this year!
We’ve reached the end of the season. The Tour Championship is a weird tournament in that every golfer begins with a score based on their PGA ranking. Here’s the breakdown:
As you can see, it’s very difficult for the lower-tier golfers to win. For example, for Viktor Hovland to prevail, he’ll have to outscore Scottie Scheffler by nine strokes and Xander Schauffele by seven strokes. It can be done, but it’s very unlikely.
I’m only going to bet one golfer to win for this reason. I will, however, post three bets for lowest score of the tournament, which would make everyone in play.
Xander Schauffele to win the Tour Championship +251 (Bookmaker)
My plan all along was to bet Scottie Scheffler to win the Tour Championship, but he tweaked his back last week. If he’s not 100 percent, this will be Xander Schauffele’s tournament. Schauffele projects extremely well at this course, which would explain why he finished second here last year behind Viktor Hovland. Schauffele, who has been clutch in the majors this year, will be tough to beat because he’ll begin this tournament at eight under.
Betting 2.5 Units to win 6.3 (to win +251)
Collin Morikawa to earn lowest score at the Tour Championship +1600 (BetMGM)
Collin Morikawa may not beat Xander Schauffele by five strokes, but he can beat him by one. I like the idea of buying him low, as he’s had a great season but has struggled in the past few tournaments. He can rebound at this course, which requires elite accuracy and approach. That’s Morikawa’s game in a nutshell. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16 (to score lowest +1600) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Tommy Fleetwood to earn lowest score at the Tour Championship +2000 (FanDuel)
Tommy Fleetwood ranks fifth in my model. Like Morikawa, he’s terrific when it comes to accuracy and approach. I’d bet him to win this tournament if he were starting at much higher than -1. Fleetwood has been hot lately, finishing in the top five of two of his previous three tournaments. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 20 (to score lowest +2000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Russell Henley to earn lowest score at the Tour Championship +2500 (DraftKings)
I love Russell Henley at this tournament, so it’s a shame that he’s starting at -1. Henley has elite traits when it comes to accuracy and approach, and he’s played well in big moments. He’s finished seventh or better in three of his previous eight majors. He ranks fourth in my model behind Scheffler, Schauffele, and Morikawa. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to score lowest +2500) Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings
PGA Bets for the BMW Championship:
I posted a Scottie Scheffler +1250 bet heading into Sunday, which could have hit if Scheffler had one of his vintage fourth rounds, but that didn’t come to fruition. Our other plays didn’t pan out either.
The BMW Championship will take place at Castle Pines, which is the longest golf course in PGA history. It’ll also take place in altitude, so driving distance is extremely important, as is long iron play. Accuracy matters as well because there are lots of trees and hazards on this course.
Xander Schauffele is atop my model, followed by Scottie Scheffler. I found Schauffele at +705 on Bookmaker, but I’m going to look for a better deal throughout the weekend.
Ludvig Aberg to win the BMW Championship +2200 (FanDuel)
Ludvig Aberg was having a great season until his Sunday meltdown at the Scottish Open. He hasn’t finished better than 18th since, but his skill set matches up well with this course. He’s third in my model, as he’s an elite driver with terrific approach skills. I like buying Aberg low like this, as he’s one of the most talented golfers in this tournament. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22 (to win +2200) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Viktor Hovland to win the BMW Championship +2250 (Bookmaker)
Viktor Hovland won the BMW last year, which sparked his victory at the championship the following week. Hovland had a horrible start to his 2024 season, but looks like he’s finally rounding into form. He finished second at St. Jude, and his skills translate to this tournament, ranking fifth in my model. Betting 1 Units to win 22.5 (to win +2250)
Wyndham Clark to win the BMW Championship +3300 (FanDuel)
Like Hovland, Wyndham Clark has struggled mightily at times this year, but has rounded into form lately. He’s finished in the top 10 in three of his previous five tournaments. He’s a great fit for this course because of his immense driving power. Furthermore, this is a local course for him. Clark is one of the few golfers who has played at Castle Pines before, so this could give him a nice edge. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 33 (to win +3500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Tony Finau to win the BMW Championship +3500 (Caesars)
Sticking with the theme of improved recent play, Tony Finau has finished eighth, third, fifth, 12th, and 16th in five of his previous six tournaments. Finau drives the ball with great power and possesses elite iron play. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 26.25 (to win +4500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Sam Burns to win the BMW Championship +3850 (Bookmaker)
Sticking with the theme of improved play, Sam Burns had some poor performances in the middle of the season as a result of becoming a new dad. He has since recovered. He’s finished in the top 10 four times since June 2, including fifth last week. Burns’ skill set matches up well for Castle Pines.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 28.9 (to win +3850) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the St. Jude Championship:
It appeared as though our bad Sunday luck was going to continue at the Wyndham Championship when Max Greyserman hit two eagles in Round 4. However, he quadruple bogeyed on 14, allowing Aaron Rai to come back and win. It was great to hit Rai at 35/1. Let’s hope this improved fortune continues!
The top golfers are back for the opening round of the playoffs. TPC Southwind, host of the St. Jude Championship, is a very similar course to the Wyndham, where incredible accuracy and approach play matter the most. This is why Lucas Glover won both the St. Jude and the Wyndham last year. Will we have another repeat champion?
Collin Morikawa to win the St. Jude Championship +1400 (Bookmaker)
Collin Morikawa ranks ahead of Scottie Scheffler in my model. Both are elite approach players, but Morikawa is the most accurate golfer on tour, which gives him the edge at the St. Jude. If you’re comparing the two, Scheffler is +375, while Morikawa is 14/1. It’s worth noting that Morikawa has been bet down from 14/1 to 12/1 at many books, but 14/1 is still available at Bookmaker.
Betting 2 Units to win 28 (to win +1400)
Russell Henley to win the St. Jude Championship +3500 (Bookmaker)
Collin Morikawa is the most accurate golfer on tour. Russell Henley is tied for second. Henley, who finished sixth at the St. Jude last year, has been hot lately. He finished fifth at the British Open and seventh at the U.S. Open. He’s been able to contend with the top players, so he has a very real chance to take down this tournament at 35/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500)
Tom Kim to win the St. Jude Championship +3500 (Caesars)
Tom Kim has a great mix of accuracy and approach. If you combine the two categories, only four golfers rank ahead of him in this field: Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, and Aaron Rai. Dating back to the beginning of June, Kim has three top-eight finishes, including second at the Travelers and eighth at the Olympics.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500)
Aaron Rai to win the St. Jude Championship +4500 (FanDuel)
Here he is. Can Aaron Rai repeat what Lucas Glover did last year and win both the Wyndham and the St. Jude? I think so. Rai is tied with Russell Henley for second in accuracy, which is incredibly important at this course. Part of the reason I loved Rai last week is that his putting has improved tremendously in the past couple of months. That would explain why he’s been so hot. Since June 30, he’s finished second, seventh, fourth, and first in four of his five tournaments. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 45 (to win +4500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Davis Thompson to win the St. Jude Championship +7000 (FanDuel)
Here’s my long shot. I love Davis Thompson at 70/1, as he’s 11th in my model. Others may not have him ranked very high, and I think that would be because they’re ignoring his major improvement in accuracy. Thompson had huge issues with accuracy earlier in the year, but he’s been incredibly accurate since early May. Dating back to May 12, he’s had second-, ninth-, second-, and first-place finishes. He was 12th at the Wyndham, which should translate over to St. Jude. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 35 (to win +7000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Wyndham Championship:
Our bad luck continued at the 3M. We had Taylor Pendrith at 40/1. He was up three strokes on Saturday and was priced at +125 to win. Then, he had a four-hole stretch in which he went bogey, par, bogey, double bogey. He still finished fourth, so if it wasn’t for those four holes, he would have won.
We’re back after a week off because of the Olympics. The Wyndham Championship is the final tournament before the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The course requires elite accuracy because there are lots of trees and other hazards. Approach play and putting are also vital at this tournament.
Brian Harman to win the Wyndham Championship +3000 (BetMGM) You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Brian Harman is the only golfer in this field who is terrific in accuracy, approach, and putting. Sungjae Im is close, but not quite there in accuracy. Given that, as well as the fact that Harman is second in my model, I believe that he’s a steal at 30/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Aaron Rai to win the Wyndham Championship +3500 (FanDuel)
I mentioned that Brian Harman is second in my model. Aaron Rai is first. Rai has been on a tear lately. In his previous three tournaments prior to the British Open, he finished fourth, seventh, and second. He’s the most accurate golfer in the field, which makes him a great bet to win, especially at 35/1. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Akshay Bhatia to win the Wyndham Championship +3500 (FanDuel)
Akshay Bhatia has been good to us this year, as we had him at 68/1 to win the Texas Open. This is another great course for him. He’s been deadly accurate recently, finishing second and fifth in two of his previous four tournaments. It looks like he’s on the cusp of winning again, so 35/1 seems like a great price for him in this field. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Brendon Todd to win the Wyndham Championship +10000 (FanDuel)
I like two long shots this week. Brendon Todd can perhaps continue the trend of older golfers performing well in recent tournaments. Todd, who has three top-six finishes this year, is elite when it comes to accuracy. He’s also a great putter. His iron play isn’t great, but it’s not bad either, so he can win this tournament. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 40 (to win +10000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Ben Kohles to win the Wyndham Championship +11000 (FanDuel)
Ben Kohles is the other long shot. Like Todd, he’s an extremely accurate golfer, ranking second in the field in this metric. He has also improved at putting the past couple of months after struggling in that regard earlier in the year. He finished second at the Byron Nelson back in May, so he has proven that he can put himself in position to win at tournaments where driving distance is inconsequential. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 44.4 (to win +11000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Webb Simpson to finish in the top 10/top 20 at the Wyndham Championship +900, +400 (FanDuel)
Webb Simpson’s course history here is immaculate. Look at the results from 2023 backward: 5th, 7th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 72nd, 6th, 5th, 11th, 22nd, 1st. He has done so well at the Wyndham that he named his son Wyndham! Knowing that, how can you not bet even a bit on Simpson? I don’t want to bet him to win because his putting has been atrocious this year, but I’m going to bet him to finish in the top 10 and top 20. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 4.5 (to finish top 10 +900), 0.5 Units to win 2 (to finish top 20 +400) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the 3M Open:
The British Open was not kind to us. It wasn’t kind to some of the top golfers in the world either, as Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg and Wyndham Clark, three of the top six-ranked golfers on the PGA tour, failed to make the cut. McIlroy didn’t even score a birdie until hole 14 of the second round.
The 3M is a much easier course, provided the golfers in question can hit long. This is a bombers’ paradise, so you’ll want to bet on golfers who blast the ball. It’ll help if they’re good when it comes to approach and putting as well.
Tony Finau is the favorite here, and for good reason. He’s a bomber and a very talented golfer. He won the 3M two years ago, and he’s gained the most strokes of any golfer at this course. Unfortunately, he’s 12/1, so he doesn’t provide great value. I’ll be looking to get him at a better number if he endures a negative Round 1.
As for the golfers I’m betting, I’ll be on one of the top players near the top of the board…
Sam Burns to win the 3M Open +2000 (Bookmaker)
Sam Burns had a great start to his season. He went into a swoon in the middle of the year, but has caught fire recently. The reason for his poor play was because of the birth of his first child. Burns has since refocused, and he seems primed to win. He can blast the ball very well, and he’s also a terrific putter. It’s no surprise that he has a seventh-place finish at this course.
Betting 1 Unit to win 20 (to win +2000)
Keith Mitchell to win the 3M Open +3500 (Caesars)
This is a late add on Wednesday evening. I love Keith Mitchell’s fit on this course as far as his driving distance and approach are concerned. Mitchell is a horrendous putter, but he knows these greens well. He’s gained strokes on putting the previous two times he’s played at the 3M. In those two tournaments, he finished fifth on both occasions.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 26.25 (to win +3500)
Keegan Bradley to win the 3M Open +3750 (Bookmaker)
Keegan Bradley, eighth in my model, has been enjoying a great year. He’s finished second in two tournaments, and he was able to make the cut in all three American majors. Bradley isn’t amazing at driving the ball, but does everything well.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 22.5 (to win +3750)
Taylor Pendrith to win the 3M Open +4065 (Bookmaker)
Taylor Pendrith checks in fourth in my model behind Finau, Burns, and Sahith Theegala. He’s been on fire this year, earning three top-10 finishes since the beginning of May, including an outright win at the Byron Nelson. He finished 16th at the U.S. Open, another bombers’ course, despite playing against much tougher competition. Pendrith drives the ball extremely well, while his putter has been hot for the most part.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 30.49 (to win +4065)
Kurt Kitayama to win the 3M Open +4500 (FanDuel)
Kurt Kitayama drives the ball with great distance, and he’s also excellent with his irons. He has a win on tour in the past, and this could definitely be his second win. Kitayama, who is sixth in my model, is as low as 35/1 at Bookmaker, but FanDuel lists him at 45/1. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 22.5 (to win +4500)
Kevin Yu to win the 3M Open +7500 (FanDuel)
Here’s my long shot. Kevin Yu is not known to many, but he has four top-nine finishes this year. He was fourth at the Myrtle Beach not too long ago. Although he can’t put well, he can blast the hell out of the ball and also fare well with his irons. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.35 Units to win 26.25 (to win +7500)
PGA Bets for the British Open:
We continue to have the worst luck on Sundays. Ludvig Aberg led after the second and third round, but hit the fairway just five times on Sunday. He also missed so many putts. All he needed was -2 on Sunday to win, but he imploded. We’ve been subjected to so many Sunday meltdowns this year, it’s been ridiculous.
Hopefully our luck turns around at the British Open. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite, of course, but he struggled in England last year. He barely made the cut at the 2023 British Open. He even skipped out on the Scottish Open this year to improve his links course play. His struggles with links courses will be enough to keep me off of him this week, but he could still win because he’s the greatest golfer in the world.
I’m not a huge fan of any of the favorites, considering their odds. The top five golfers in my model are Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg, but there’s not much of a dropoff from them to some of the golfers in the 50/1 to 75/1 range.
Tom Kim to win the British Open +5000 (FanDuel)
This week, I’m looking for golfers who are accurate and possess elite iron play. And as with the Scottish Open, I’m targeting either foreigners or golfers who have great links experience. Tom Kim is only 22, but plays links courses extremely well. In his previous three links events, he has finished 15th, second, and sixth. The second-place result was in last year’s British Open. It’s amazing that Kim is only 22, yet he already has two top-10 finishes in majors, including the second-place finish. He’s been hot lately, and his best two traits are accuracy and iron play. He’s a steal at 50/1. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 37.5 (to win +5000)
Cameron Young to win the British Open +7000 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young is extremely talented, but has been known to go into some deep funks. When he’s hot, however, he can be unstoppable. He’s had two top-10 finishes in his previous two tournaments, so he’s rounding into form. Young, who can be accurate when he scales down his great power, has tremendous links experience. He has finished second and eighth in his two British Open appearances. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.7 Units to win 49 (to win +7000)
Sungjae Im to win the British Open +7500 (FanDuel)
Sungjae Im is one of the top young golfers in the world, but he struggled to start the season. He skipped a PGA event to fly to his home in South Korea, where he won a small tournament. Ever since then, he’s been on fire. Dating back to May 12, Im has five top-10 finishes, including three in the top four. He just finished fourth at the Scottish Open, and he placed 20th at the British Open last year, so he can definitely win at this course. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 45 (to win +7500)
Brian Harman to win the British Open +7500 (FanDuel)
I can’t believe that Brian Harman is 75/1 to win the British Open. He won the previous British Open, and he finished sixth the year before that. Harman is a terrific links golfer who possesses great accuracy and irons ability. Furthermore, he’s left-handed, which, according to Phil Mickelson, is a positive trait to have at the Royal Troon. By that measure, Akshay Bhatia could be a great play at 125/1, but he has no links experience. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 45 (to win +7500)
Sebastian Soderberg to win the British Open +40000 (FanDuel)
Most people haven’t heard of Sebastian Soderberg, but he’s the No. 1 player on the European tour at the moment. He’s an awesome irons player, and in his previous four European events, he has finished second, second, third, and second. That’s ridiculous. He’s a long shot, but at 400/1, I’m willing to take a chance on a guy who is mostly an unknown. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.1 Units to win 40 (to win +40000)
PGA Bets for the Scottish Open:
Denny McCarthy looked like he’d have a chance to win the John Deere at +2450, but he had an awful Saturday to take himself out of contention.
We now go overseas to the Scottish Open and then the British Open. It should be noted that Americans have a disadvantage in these European events. Only two Americans finished in the top 10 of the Scottish Open last year, and one of them was Scottie Scheffler.
Speaking of Scheffler, he won’t be playing at this event because he has decided to prepare for the British Open. He barely made the cut in last year’s British Open, so he is likely making the right choice to practice for it instead. Without Scheffler in the field, the odds of everyone else winning have improved substantially. However, that doesn’t mean that we’ll avoid the favorite…
Rory McIlroy to win the Scottish Open +750 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
You guys know I almost never bet the favorite unless it’s Scottie Scheffler. However, I love Rory McIlroy’s fit for this course. The Scottish Open requires great driving distance and approach play, plus quality putting abilities. McIlroy checks all the boxes. Of course, you could have known that if you looked at last year’s results. McIlroy won the Scottish Open in 2023, and I think he’ll be victorious again after taking some time off in the wake of his second-place finish at the U.S. Open. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 2 Units to win 15 (to win +750)
Ludvig Aberg to win the Scottish Open +1600 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Ludvig Aberg is second in my model behind Rory McIroy. He’s a European player who thrives in driving distance, approach, and putting. He’s actually great in all regards, and he’s done well at very tricky golf courses like the Masters. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16 (to win +1600)
Viktor Hovland to win the Scottish Open +2325 (Bookmaker)
Viktor Hovland had a horrible start to his 2024 season because he changed his swing. I’m not sure why he would do that after becoming the 2023 FedEx Cup champion, but he seems to be rounding into form lately. Hovland is a great course fit and has great history on these European courses. He’s fourth in my model (Xander Schaffele is third.)
Betting 0.75 Units to win 17.45 (to win +2325)
Byeong Hun An to win the Scottish Open +7550 (Bookmaker)
Byeong Hun An has tremendous power and plus approach skills. He’s a great fit for this course, so his third-place finish last year was not a surprise. An is performing even better than he did in 2023, so he’ll have an even better chance to prevail this time.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 22.65 (to win +7550)
Nicolai Hojgaard to win the Scottish Open +10000 (FanDuel)
Nicolai Hojgaard doesn’t have great results this year, but that’s because he’s been playing in North America. He dominated the European tour last year, and he also finished sixth at the 2023 Scottish Open. Hohgaard has great driving ability, so now that he’s 23 years old, he could win this tournament. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 25 (to win +10000)
PGA Bets for the John Deere Classic:
We’ve had so much bad luck on Sundays this year. We once again bet a guy who finished second, as Min Woo Lee had a horrible chip on 18 to bogey, which cost him a playoff with Cameron Davis.
Let’s hope for better luck this week at the John Deere Classic. We called Seppulon Straka as the winner here last year at 55/1. We’re not getting the same amazing odds with Straka again, so are we going to bet him once more?
Seppulon Straka to win the John Deere Classic +1800 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
I’m going to bet Seppulon Straka once more. He’s made for this course, which requires great accuracy, approach, and putting. Straka’s putting hasn’t been great this year, but he’s been excellent in the other two aspects. Plus, you can’t deny the course history. I’m not a big course history guy, but Straka dominated the field last year. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1.25 Units to win 22.5 (to win +1800)
Denny McCarthy to win the John Deere Classic +2450 (Bookmaker)
Putting is extremely important at a tournament like this, so I’m interested in backing the best putter in the field. McCarthy is average in both accuracy and approach, but no one is a better putter than him. He tied for sixth at this tournament last year.
Betting 1 Unit to win 24.5 (to win +2450)
J.T. Poston to win the John Deere Classic +3560 (Bookmaker)
J.T. Poston’s top traits are accuracy and putting. His approach game is decent enough as well. He has a bright outlook on this course, as evidenced by his sixth-place finish last year. Poston has four top-10 finishes this year, including three inside the top six, so he’s been very close to triumphing. Perhaps this is his week.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 26.7 (to win +3560)
Andrew Putnam to win the John Deere Classic +11635 (Bookmaker)
Andrew Putnam has no power to his swing, but he’s incredibly accurate and can putt extremely well. His approach game is hit or miss, so hopefully it’ll be a hit this weekend. Putnam has two top-10 finishes this year, so he has shown that he can contend on occasion. This is the right course for him.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 29.1 (to win +11635)
Ben Kohles to win the John Deere Classic +15000 (FanDuel)
I found this interesting. Look at how Ben Kohles has improved his putting throughout the year:
Kohles was an absolutely horrific putter at the beginning of the year, but he’s turned that part of his game completely around. This helped him finish second at the Byron Nelson. If this trend continues, Kohles will have a chance to prevail at the John Deere because he’s extremely accurate with his swing. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 30 (to win +15000)
PGA Bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic:
Scottie Scheffler wins again. Unreal. The Travelers wasn’t even a great tournament for Scheffler, yet he prevailed anyway. It was incredibly disappointing to see Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa both suffer meltdowns on Day 4 when they were expected to compete with Scheffler down the stretch.
Scheffler will be taking the next two weeks off before competing in the Scottish Open, British Open and the Olympics, so this field is wide open. We picked the winner last year with Rickie Fowler, who was putting incredibly well at the time. Fowler’s putting hasn’t been as good this year, so he won’t be wagering on him again. Instead, we’ll be looking at golfers who thrive with their putter and can hit the ball well enough over the bunkers at this course.
Min Woo Lee to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +2106 (Bookmaker)
Min Woo Lee has incredible talent. The results don’t show that – he’s finished in the 20s in several tournaments recently – but those tournaments were all majors and elevated events. This is a massive step down in competition for Lee, who thrives in distance and putting.
Betting 1 Unit to win 21.06 (to win +2106)
Maverick McNealy to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +2858 (Bookmaker)
Maverick McNealy checks right behind Min Woo Lee in my model. He’s the No. 3 overall player and ranks as the fourth-best putter. McNealy has been heating up lately, most recently finishing seventh at the Canadian Open, so he can certainly win in an easier field.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28.58 (to win +2858)
Taylor Pendrith to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +3000 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Min Woo Lee is second in my model. Taylor Pendrith is first. Pendrith, who has six top-11 finishes this year, including a win at the Byron Nelson, is a perfect match for this course. He drives the ball well and excels in putting, which are the two attributes you need at the Detroit Golf Club. In fact, he’s the No. 3-ranked putter in this field. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (to win +3000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Ryan Fox to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +5500 (Bookmaker)
If you ignore everything besides putting and driving distance, and average the two metrics together, there are only two golfers at this tournament who will have a better number than Ryan Fox: Taylor Pendrith and Min Woo Lee. Fox will be able to use his strengths to perform well in this field. He has three top-seven finishes in the past few months, and those finishes were against tougher competition than this.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.5 (to win +)
Beau Hossler to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +7070 (Bookmaker)
Beau Hossler is just average when it comes to driving the ball, but there is no better putter at this tournament. This gives Hossler, who finished fourth at Myrtle Beach a couple of months ago, a chance to win this tournament.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 21.21 (to win +7070)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Tom Kim to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +22000 (FanDuel)
Tom Kim is the best golfer in this field. He had a lousy Thursday, finishing at +1, but he could easily have an insane Friday to vault back into contention. Most of the top of the leaderboard isn’t overly impressive, so Kim could still win this tournament. Getting 220/1 is a steal.
Betting 0.1 Units to win 22 (to win +22000)
Pre-Round 3 Bet: Will Zalatoris to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic +10000 (FanDuel)
Will Zalatoris’ odds were much better heading into Friday, thanks to his -6 in Round 1. However, he went just -1 on Friday, which puts him six strokes back of the lead. Zalatoris is a very talented golfer, so he could easily make up that deficit in two days, especially since many of the golfers ahead of him aren’t very good. I think 100/1 is a great value.
Betting 0.1 Units to win 10 (to win +10000)
PGA Bets for the Travelers Championship:
It’s a shame we didn’t have a great course formula for the U.S. Open. As I wrote on Sunday, Pinehurst turned into a bombers’ paradise, which is why we bet Bryson DeChambeau prior to the final round. Had we possessed more data and known this ahead of time, we would’ve gotten a much better number on DeChambeau earlier in the week.
Fortunately, we have plenty of data for the Travelers Championship, which is a far easier course than Pinehurst. Winning the Travelers is contingent on approach play and putting. Accuracy is important as well, but approach and putting are the two most significant stats.
Given that Scottie Scheffler is not a great putter, I won’t be betting him this week. Scheffler actually came out to be third in my model behind Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, so I would suggest betting on them instead. Scheffler is the best golfer in the world and could obviously win this tournament, but we’re getting a bad number on a course that doesn’t suit his strengths.
Collin Morikawa to win the Travelers Championship +1200 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Of Schauffele and Morikawa, the latter is available for a much better price. I’m seeing 12/1 at FanDuel and DraftKings, whereas Schauffele is +750. Schauffele won a major recently, so he may not be as hungry as Morikawa, who is enjoying an amazing season. Morikawa has come close to winning so often, so perhaps he’ll finally prevail this weekend. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
Betting 2 Units to win 24 (to win +1200) Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Russell Henley to win the Travelers Championship +3500 (FanDuel)
Russell Henley is coming off a terrific U.S. Open when considering that he was able to contend despite not being a bomber. Henley is also having a terrific season, and this course fits him like a glove. Henley has no power, but he’s outstanding when it comes to accuracy and putting. He’s also very good with his irons. Henley ranks fourth in my model and is a steal at 35/1. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 26.25 (to win +3500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Denny McCarthy to win the Travelers Championship +8000 (FanDuel)
When it comes to putting, no one is better than Denny McCarthy. So, on courses where putting is one of the top attributes, you must consider betting him. McCarthy isn’t great when it comes to accuracy or approach play, but he gains strokes in both categories, so it’s not like he’ll have any liabilities at this tournament. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 24 (to win +8000)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win the Travelers Championship +8000 (Bookmaker)
Christian Bezuidenhout is also enjoying a terrific year. He has finished second, fourth, and ninth in three PGA tournaments this year, so he’s definitely live to win. Bezuidenhout is an amazing putter who also does well when it comes to accuracy and approach. He’s a steal at 80/1.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 24 (to win +8000)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Ludvig Aberg to win the Travelers Championship +2200 (FanDuel)
I wrote earlier that I had interest in Ludvig Aberg to win this tournament, but didn’t love the 14/1 number. Aberg is 22/1 now, which is much more appealing. He’s currently -3 right now, so he’s definitely not out of it. Aberg is a stud, so he could easily have a nine-under day and vault to the top of the leaderboard.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 11 (to win +2200)
Pre-Round 4 Bet: Xander Schauffele to win the Travelers Championship +550 (Bookmaker)
Xander Schauffele was No. 1 in my model for this course. He’s only two back of the lead, so he can certainly win. I regret not betting him at +925, which I saw on Bookmaker on Wednesday evening. I think +550 is a solid number though, given where he ranks on the leaderboard at the moment.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.75 (to win +550)
PGA Bets for the U.S. Open:
We didn’t get an amazing number with Scottie Scheffler, but we got the win in a tight one on Sunday. Scheffler recorded his fifth victory of the year, and there will be more to come.
Perhaps Scheffler’s sixth win will come at the U.S. Open. This year’s U.S. Open will be at Pinehurst in North Carolina. Pinehurst is arguably the toughest course on the entire tour this year. The last time Pinehurst hosted a PGA event, only one person finished under par. I’ll repeat and emphasize: ONLY ONE PERSON FINISHED UNDER PAR.
Only a complete player can win at an extremely difficult course like this. Pinehurst will expose everyone’s flaws, so let’s take a look at the players who can thrive in all aspects.
Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open +333 (BetMGM)
We’re betting Scottie Scheffler again. I compared his run to that of James Holzhauer on Jeopardy. Holzhauer demolished all of his opponents despite the show’s efforts to boot him off with increasingly difficult questions. He finally lost when they began asking very easy questions. Holzhauer couldn’t be beaten when the tough questions were asked because he was better than everyone. Similarly, Scheffler has such a huge advantage over the rest of the field on a course like this because he’s in a tier of his own. I’d bet him at 2/1, so +333 is a good deal.
Betting 3 Units to win 10 (to win +333)
Collin Morikawa to win the U.S. Open +1653 (Bookmaker)
Collin Morikawa is playing some ridiculous golf right now. He didn’t have his best season last year because he was dealing with back spasms, but he’s healthy now, and it shows. He’s finished third and fourth in his previous two majors, and he’s gone second, fourth and fourth in the past three tournaments. No one is more accurate than Morikawa – not even Scheffler – which is the most important trait to have at Pinehurst.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16.53 (to win +1653)
Brooks Koepka to win the U.S. Open +2652 (Bookmaker)
Brooks Koepka has a great track record at majors, so he could certainly beat Scottie Scheffler. Koepka is also someone who has no flaws in his game. He let many bettors down at the PGA Championship, but once that tournament turned into a birdie fest, it was clear that he would have trouble winning it. This course is much tougher, which helps Koepka versus most of the field.
Betting 0.75 Units to win 19.89 (to win +2652)
Tommy Fleetwood to win the U.S. Open +3652 (Bookmaker)
Tommy Fleetwood is known for being a choke artist, but so was Xander Schauffele before he won the PGA Championship. Fleetwood has had some great finishes in majors in the past few years. He’s had four top-fives since 2022. He ranks very highly in accuracy and approach, the two most important traits when it comes to playing at Pinehurst.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 18.26 (to win +3652)
Hideki Matsuyama to win the U.S. Open +5053 (Bookmaker)
Contrary to Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama has a major win, prevailing at the 2021 Masters. He’s also been enjoying a great year. He won the Genesis in February, and since then, he’s placed in the top eight on three occasions. Matsuyama has no weaknesses, and he’s especially strong in approach and around the green, two of the three most vital traits to have at Pinehurst.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 20.21 (to win +5053)
Sungjae Im to win the U.S. Open +9000 (Bookmaker)
Sungjae Im is an extremely talented, young golfer, but was struggling early in the year. He took a trip to South Korea in late April, and he’s been fantastic since. He’s been in the top nine in three of his past four tournaments. Im has no weaknesses when he’s playing at the top of his game, and he’s great when it comes to accuracy and around-the-green play, so he has what it takes to win at Pinehurst.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 22.5 (to win +9000)
Round 4 Bets: Bryson DeChambeau (-115), Ludvig Aberg (+2050)
Our formula was off for Pinehurst, as it’s turned into a bombers’ paradise. Bryson DeChambeau is the best bomber there is. Getting -115 may not seem great, but DataGolf puts him at 55.1 percent to win, meaning -124 is correct. I like the bit of value we’re getting with DeChambeau. Meanwhile, Ludvig Aberg is the most talented golfer in contention. He’s five back of DeChambeau, but he’s talented enough to catch him. You can get him at +2050 on Bookmaker.
Betting 1.15 Unit to win 1 (to win -115 on DeChambeau)
Betting 0.25 Units to win 5.13 (to win +2050 on Aberg)
PGA Bets for the Memorial Tournament:
For the third consecutive Sunday, we had a guy in contention, only to see the frontrunner have an amazing finish. Mackenzie Hughes looked like he was going to make a charge for a while, but he imploded on nine, and it didn’t help that two of his putts lipped out of the hole.
We have a loaded field this week with Scottie Scheffler and all the top golfers at the Memorial Tournament. This is an incredibly tough course, so it’ll be a surprise if anyone besides Scottie Scheffler is able to reach -10. Speaking of Scheffler…
Scottie Scheffler to win the Memorial Tournament +366 (Bookmaker)
Scottie Scheffler had major problems putting last year. That was the case at the 2023 Memorial, where he finished third. He had that great finish despite losing eight strokes putting. Let me emphasize that. Scheffler finished third despite losing EIGHT STROKES PUTTING. Scheffler has since figured out his putter and has actually done very well in that regard since March. This course is perfect for Scheffler, which rewards golfers for accuracy, approach play, and scrambling. Scheffler is top notch in all three of those categories.
Betting 3 Units to win 10.98 (to win +366)
Alex Noren to win the Memorial Tournament +6250 (Bookmaker)
Alex Noren sucked last week, but he’s not too far removed from a third-place finish at the Byron Nelson, or an 11th-place finish at the Houston Open, where Scheffler was second. Noren’s weakness is his driving distance, but that won’t matter on this course. Noren can do well here, as we saw in 2021 when he was 13th. He’s worth a look at 62/1.
Betting 0.5 Unit to win 31.25 (to win +6250)
Denny McCarthy to win the Memorial Tournament +8450 (Bookmaker)
Denny McCarthy’s odds are all over the place. He’s 55/1 at Bovada, and 84/1 at Bookmaker. He was one of the two players who finished ahead of Scottie Scheffler at the 2023 Memorial Tournament, with the winner being Viktor Hovland. I also like Hovland a bit overall, but not so much at 20/1. At any rate, McCarthy has great stats for scrambling and putting, so he should perform well here again.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 42.25 (to win +8450)
Lucas Glover to win the Memorial Tournament +12500 (Bookmaker)
First of all, I was set to type up Lucas Glover, and the song “Automatic Lover” by the Real McCoy popped up on my iTunes. I’ve always called Lucas Glover “Automatic Glover” as an homage to that song, so it has to be a sign, right? Second, I think it’s important to note Glover’s putting. Glover is a horrendous putter by his own admission, but he repaired that aspect to his game late in 2023 and won two consecutive tournaments, including the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Glover reverted to putting poorly in early 2024, but take a look at how he’s done in that area recently:
Ever since the Masters, Glover has gained strokes putting in four of five tournaments, and he was exceptional at putting in his most recent outing. I think there’s a chance that Glover has fixed things again, and if so, he’s live to win any tournament because he’s one of the top ball strikers on tour. I was thrilled to see Automatic Glover available at 125/1.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 62.5 (to win +12500)
Andrew Putnam to win the Memorial Tournament +17500 (Caesars)
We’re not done with our long shots! Andrew Putnam ranked much higher than expected in my model (7th). Then again, maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised because his sole weakness is driving distance. Putnam excels in all other areas, so he can win this tournament, as evidenced by his fifth-place finish last year.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 44 (to win +17500)
Round 4 Hedges: Collin Morikawa +1000 (FanDuel), Seppulon Straka +2050 (Bookmaker), Adam Hadwin +3000 (FanDuel)
We’re in a great spot with Scottie Scheffler. I’m going to spray 0.2 units on everyone who’s at -6 at the moment. I don’t think you need to do that, and you could perhaps wait to bet one golfer, but I’ll be at the beach tomorrow with my family, so I won’t be able to watch the tournament live.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 2 (to win +1000 on Morikawa)
Betting 0.2 Units to win 4.1 (to win +2050 on Straka)
Betting 0.2 Units to win 6 (to win +3000 on Hadwin)
PGA Bets for the Canadian Open:
We were able to get a great number on Scottie Scheffler last weekend after his dismal Round 1 performance. We had him at 11/1. Unfortunately, he inexplicably struggled in Round 4. We were able to hedge with Davis Riley, at least.
Scheffler is not playing at the RBC Canadian Open, so this is a wide-open field. Rory McIlroy is the favorite, and for good reason: He’s on fire now, and he lit up this course the last time he played it, winning by five strokes. However, McIlroy is not Scheffler, so I’m more confident in our longer shots.
Sahith Theegala to win the Canadian Open +2000 (BetMGM)
Hamilton Golf & Country Club is all about iron play and putting. Sahith Theegala excels in both. He’s No. 1 in my model, just ahead of Rory McIlroy, so getting him at 20/1 when McIlroy is 4/1 is an absolute steal. Theegala has finished in the top six on four occasions this year, so he’s primed to win.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 30 (to win +2000) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Alex Noren to win the Canadian Open +2500 (BetMGM)
I like the price we’re getting on Alex Noren as well. Noren isn’t an elite putter like Theegala is, but he’s very good in that area. He also thrives with his irons. He’s fourth in my model, and he’s been hot lately. He’s finished 14th or better in five of his previous eight tournaments, and he had a third-place finish on May 5. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win +2500) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Mackenzie Hughes to win the Canadian Open +4400 (Bookmaker)
Mackenzie Hughes is the best putter at this tournament, which gives him a huge edge. He’s fifth in my model. He’s also Canadian, which can’t hurt!
Betting 0.65 Units to win 29 (to win +5050)
Erik Van Rooyen to win the Canadian Open +6400 (Bookmaker)
Erik Van Rooyen ranks ninth in my model, as his best attributes are iron play and putting. He’s also finished in second and fourth in tournaments dating back to March. Despite this, he’s 64/1, which seems like a tremendous value.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 32 (to win +6400)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Cameron Young to win the Canadian Open +4500 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young is one of the most talented golfers at this tournament. He’s only -1 right now, but he’s capable of making a big push. He was 16th in my model this week, so I like getting him at 45/1 odds.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 9 (to win +4500)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Corey Conners to win the Canadian Open +4500 (FanDuel)
What I said about Cameron Young also applies to Corey Conners. He’s 18th in my model, and he’s talented enough to have a huge round and really jump up the leaderboard. He’s -1 right now, but 45/1 is too good of a price to pass up.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 9 (to win +4500)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Thorbjorn Olesen to win the Canadian Open +9000 (FanDuel)
I actually had Thorbjorn Olesen higher in my model than Young and Conners. He’s 13th on my spreadsheet, and he’s at -2 right now. Given his great putting ability, he’ll be able to post lots of birdies and move up the leaderboard.
Betting 0.1 Units to win 9 (to win +9000)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Sahith Theegala to win the Canadian Open +60000 (FanDuel)
This is probably silly because Sahith Theegala just had a horrible first round, and at +4, he’s more likely to miss the cut than not. However, he’s the second-best golfer at this tournament, and he could easily have a -7 or -8 second round to put himself in contention. I can’t pass on the second-best golfer at a tournament at 600/1, even if he’s at +4 after the first round.
Betting 0.05 Units to win 30 (to win +60000)
PGA Bets for the Charles Schwab:
Last weekend hurt. We had Bryson DeChambeau at about 30/1, and he lost by a single stroke. What’s worse is that I wanted to hedge my bet, but never saw a great opportunity. I thought we’d get one if DeChambeau and renowned choke artist Xander Schauffele went to extra holes, but Schauffele came up big in the clutch for the first time and won the tournament.
We’ve had lots of chalk lately, and I’m afraid that will continue in this tournament. Scottie Scheffler is a massive favorite, and for good reason. This is a perfect course for Scheffler because great iron players do extremely well at it. Putting is also important, and Scheffler has improved markedly in that department. I’ll be betting Scheffler, as he’ll be looking to redeem himself from last weekend’s ridiculous arrest.
Scottie Scheffler to win the Charles Schwab +305 (Bookmaker)
Again, this is a perfect course for Scheffler, so I have no problem betting him, even at this low number. Also, keep in mind that there aren’t many great golfers at this tournament. Collin Morikawa is Scheffler’s top competition, and Morikawa’s mediocre putting could end up costing him.
Betting 3 Units to win 9.15 (to win +305)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win the Charles Schwab +5000 (BetMGM)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is one of the top putters on tour. He’s also solid when it comes to his iron play. Both these features rank him highly in this tournament. Bezuidenhout has a second-place finish this year in which he placed ahead of Schauffele, so we know that he can win. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 25 (to win +5000) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Tom Hoge to win the Charles Schwab +5050 (Bookmaker)
This is a perfect course for Tom Hoge. Iron play is Hoge’s specialty, and he’s also a top-50 putter. Hoge also ranks highly in greens in regulation. He has six top-20 finishes this year, including two in the top 10, so he could finally take down a tournament.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 30.3 (to win +5050)
Andrew Putnam to win the Charles Schwab +6050 (Bookmaker)
Andrew Putnam is similar to Tom Hoge. He ranks highly in all three major categories, and he’s also had two top-10 finishes this year. He ranks fifth in my model despite the fact that he’s just $7,400 on DraftKings.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30.25 (to win +6050)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Scottie Scheffler to win the Charles Schwab +1100 (FanDuel)
We’re going to double down on Scottie Scheffler. He’s the best golfer in the world, but is coming off the worst round he’s had since 2022, thanks to a triple bogey. He could easily rebound with a five-under second round and get back on track to win this tournament.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 5.5 (to win +1100)
Pre-Round 2 Bet: Seppulon Straka to win the Charles Schwab +2200 (FanDuel)
Seppulon Straka is the fifth golfer I considered betting ahead of this tournament. Straka’s putting has been inconsistent this year, but if he can continue to putt well, he could easily take down this tournament. He’s -2 at the moment, so he’s in a good spot to make a run in the final three rounds.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22 (to win +2200)
Pre-Round 4 Hedge: Riley Davis to win the Charles Schwab +110 (FanDuel)
I want to hedge my Scottie Scheffler bets. I currently have Scheffler at $350 to win $1,480. I’m going to bet two units on Riley Davis at +110, and I’m going to wait for a +200 or so on Sunday for a third unit.
Betting 2 Units to win 2.2 (to win +110)
PGA Bets for the PGA Championship:
Last week’s tournament was no fun, as the chalk ran too strong. That could easily occur at the PGA Championship, as Scottie Scheffler is back on the menu, while Rory McIlroy is coming off consecutive wins. However, this is the easiest course for a major championship in recent memory, so there will be more golfers in play for the victory than usual. Let’s try to find someone with decent odds who can win it.
Brooks Koepka to win the PGA Championship +1650 (Bookmaker)
Brooks Koepka went into a funk after winning the PGA Championship last year. However, he recently rededicated himself to his craft, and it led to a victory in the most recent LIV tournament. Koepka is known as a big-gae hunter with his five major wins, and he could very easily win his sixth this weekend, as he enters Louisville in great form.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16.5 (to win +1650)
Jon Rahm to win the PGA Championship +2050 (Bookmaker)
Jon Rahm is 16/1 or 18/1 in most places, but he’s slightly above 20/1 at Bookmaker. This is an outstanding price for someone who is arguably the second-best golfer in the world. Rahm has no wins this year, but he has so many top-10 finishes. This course fits him like a glove, so he’s very intriguing at this price.
Betting 1 Unit to win 20.5 (to win +2050)
Bryson DeChambeau to win the PGA Championship +2955 (Bookmaker)
Speaking of great course fits, Bryson DeChambeau certainly qualifies in that regard. DeChambeau, who nearly won the Masters, has one slight weakness, and it’s his around the green play. That won’t matter much, if at all, at this course.
Betting 1 Unit to win 29.55 (to win +2955)
Joaquin Niemann to win the PGA Championship +4050 (Bookmaker)
Joaquin Niemann ranges from 25/1 to 35/1 depending on the sportsbook, but he’s above 40/1 at Bookmaker. This is an incredible price for Niemann, who has been the best golfer on LIV this year. Niemann has three wins on the season, and this could be his fourth on what is a great course fit for him. If there’s an argument to be made against Niemann, it’s that he hasn’t had success at majors, but this could be an exception because it’s an unusually easy course for a major championship.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 20.25 (to win +4050)
Stephan Jaeger to win the PGA Championship +15055 (Bookmaker)
In a field like this, you have to ask yourself, “Who can beat Scottie Scheffler and the other top golfers?” We know Stephan Jaeger can because he beat Scheffler in the Houston Open on Easter weekend. Jaeger’s plus driving distance makes him a great fit on this course as well.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 30.11 (to win +15055)
Keith Mitchell to win the PGA Championship +20000 (Bovada)
I have one more other long shot. Keith Mitchell is a weird one. On one hand, I don’t have confidence that he can win because he hasn’t prevailed in a PGA tournament since 2020. On the other hand, Mitchell ranks in the top five of my model, so I’ll feel terrible if he wins and I don’t bet him. This is a perfect course fit for Mitchell, so I’ll put a little bit on him.
Betting 0.15 Units to win 30 (to win +20000)
PGA Bets for the Wells Fargo:
Our top golfer last week was Aaron Rai, who finished fourth, so that wasn’t too exciting. We move on to the Wells Fargo, which features a wide-open field. Scottie Scheffler is on paternity leave, while Ludvig Aberg withdrew for knee concerns. Aberg was going to be my top choice to win this tournament, but we still have some intriguing options.
Wyndham Clark to win the Wells Fargo +1600 (FanDuel)
It’s no surprise that Wyndham Clark won this tournament last year. This is the perfect course for Clark, as it calls for great power off the tee and plus bogey avoidance. Clark is sixth and 20th in both categories, respectively. I don’t love this number, but with Aberg out, Clark has a good chance to prevail again. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 24 (to win +1600) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Max Homa to win the Wells Fargo +2500 (Bookmaker)
If you’re looking for great course history, Max Homa’s your guy. Homa won the Wells Fargo in 2022 and then finished eighth in it last year. Homa has good, but not great power off the tee, but he makes up for it with incredible bogey avoidance and scrambling, both of which are very key at this course.
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (to win +2500)
Sahith Theegala to win the Wells Fargo +3350 (Bookmaker)
Sahith Theegala has great power off the tee with incredible bogey avoidance and plus scrambling. This is what I like to see from someone I’m picking in this tournament. Theegala’s having a great year, finishing second at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago.
Betting 1 Unit to win 33.5 (to win +3350)
Stephan Jaegar to win the Wells Fargo +7255 (Bookmaker)
Stephan Jaegar is 72/1 at Bookmaker, yet he’s third in my model! Jaegar is known for his great power off the tee. He also ranks 26th in scrambling and 48th in bogey avoidance. He beat Scottie Scheffler at the Houston Open on Easter weekend. He also has plus course history, finishing sixth here two years ago.
Betting 1 Unit to win 72.55 (to win +7255)
Kurt Kitayama to win the Wells Fargo +10000 (BetMGM)
Kurt Kitayama doesn’t fit well at every course, but he’s always live when playing somewhere that requires great power off the tee. Kitayama possesses that trait, and he also ranks well in bogey avoidance (33th) and scrambling (29th). You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 50 (to win +10000) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Sunday Wager: Sungjae Im and Seppulon Straka to win the Wells Fargo +1800, +4000 (FanDuel)
Shout out to four-time DraftKings milly-maker winner Cam Cole for putting this out there, but Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy are renowned choke artists. There’s a decent chance one of Sungjae Im or Seppulon Straka catches them. I’m taking a shot on both for a half unit each. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 9, 0.5 Units to win 20 (to win +1800, +4000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Byron Nelson:
Remind me not to play the Zurich Classic next year, especially if it’s during draft week. I don’t like the team format, as it was very difficult to formulate. I’m glad we get to go back to regular golf this week at the Byron Nelson, a tournament that is wide open with most of the top golfers taking the week off.
Tom Hoge to win the Byron Nelson +3450 (Bookmaker)
I’m looking at three traits golfers need to win the Byron Nelson: greens in regulation percentage, birdie percentage, and putting ability. Tom Hoge excels in all three traits, ranking 23rd, sixth and 30th in those three. Hoge has golfed well this year with multiple top-10 finishes.
Betting 1.35 Units to win 46.58 (to win +3450)
Thomas Detry to win the Byron Nelson +4650 (Bookmaker)
Thomas Detry is just mediocre when it comes in greens in regulation (75th), but he’s top 30 in the other categories. Detry has fourth-, second- and eighth-place finishes this year, so it seems like he’s due to win one of these weeks.
Betting 1 Unit to win 46.5 (to win +4650) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Mark Hubbard to win the Byron Nelson +6000 (FanDuel)
Mark Hubbard has third- and fourth-place finishes this year, so he can definitely win this tournament. Hubbard ranks favorably in all three categories, especially birdie percentage (16th). You can You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.6 Units to win 36 (to win +6000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Davis Thompson to win the Byron Nelson +6600 (BetMGM)
Davis Thompson’s worst trait here is putting, but he’s still 75th in that regard. He’s 44th in greens in regulation and 30th in birdie percentage. Thompson doesn’t have a top-10 finish this year, but he could spike a victory in such a bad field. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 33 (to win +6600) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Aaron Rai to win the Byron Nelson +7050 (Bookmaker)
Aaron Rai’s putting is hit or miss. If it’s hit this weekend, he can win this tournament because he ranks highly in the other two categories. Rai finished seventh in a tournament a month ago, so he can win this one.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 35.25 (to win +7050)
Nico Echavarria to win the Byron Nelson +25000 (FanDuel)
Nico Echavarria is my long shot to win. He and his parnter finished fourth last week, so perhaps that’s a sign that he can prevail in this tournament. Echavarria’s putting is mediocre, but he ranks highly in the other two categories. You can You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.2 Units to win 50 (to win +25000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Zurich Classic:
I’m really kicking myself because I considered betting Scottie Scheffler last week at 11/1 after his mediocre first round. I don’t know why I didn’t pull the trigger, but that would have been a great bet.
Scheffler is not playing at the Zurich Classic, which is a team event. This makes it tricky to handicap, but I think we have some nice values.
Tom Hoge and Maverick McNealy to win the Zurich Classic +2500 (BetMGM)
I actually have Hoge and McNealy ranked at the very top of my model. They complement each other very well, with the two of them no worse than 30th in all the important metrics. Hoge was near the top of the leaderboard last week, so perhaps that’s a sign that he’s ready to win.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 37.5 (to win +2500)
Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith to win the Zurich Classic +2800 (BetMGM)
Conners and Pendrith are as low as 18/1 at FanDuel, so 28/1 at BetMGM seems like an incredible bargain. The duo ranks in the top 20 of approach and putting. They’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to scrambling, but I can’t turn down 28/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +2800)
Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor to win the Zurich Classic +2800 (Bookmaker)
This is an even better deal because Hadwin and Taylor are 14/1 to win the Zurch on FanDuel. You can get 28/1 at BetMGM, which is a steal. Hadwin and Taylor are seventh, ranking highly in approach and putting.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 (to win +4050)
Andrew Novak and Davis Thompson to win the Zurich Classic +4500 (BetMGM)
BetMGM is killing it with these futures because Novak and Davis are 28/1 on FanDuel, yet they’re 45/1 at BetMGM. I have the duo eighth in my model. They’re excellent in approach and scrambling. They’re not the best putting team, but they’re not ranked poorly in that regard either.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 22.5 (to win +4500)
Chesson Hadley and Greyson Sigg to win the Zurich Classic +6600 (BetMGM)
It gets crazier here. Hadley and Sigg are just 33/1 at FanDuel, but they’re 66/1 at BetMGM. They rank very high in my model, finishing fourth. They’re 31st or better in every important category at this course.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 33.3 (to win +14050)
Parker Coody and Pierceson Coody to win the Zurich Classic +10000 (BetMGM)
Last but not least, we have the Coody brothers. They complement each other very well. One is great at approach and scrambling, while the other is terrific at putting. They’re 55/1 at FanDuel, but 100/1 at BetMGM! You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 30 (to win +10000) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
PGA Bets for the RBC Heritage:
We hit back-to-back winners with Akshay Bhatia at 68/1 during the Valero Texas Open, and then Scottie Scheffler at +480 during the Masters. It’s nice to be on a hot streak after we had some bad luck to start the year.
I’m not going to bet Scheffler this week. This is not a great course fit for him. Sure, he could win it because he’s the best golfer on the planet, but he doesn’t have a huge built-in advantage like he did at the Masters. Besides, his wife is due soon, and Scheffler said he would withdraw if his wife were to go into labor. This was only a very minor concern last week, but with the date quickly approaching, there’s added risk.
Ludvig Aberg to win the RBC Heritage +1450 (Bookmaker)
Ludvig Aberg finished second at the Masters, and he happens to be second in my model behind Scheffler this week. The case could be made that Aberg is the second-best golfer in the world right now despite the fact that he’s playing in just his first full season. I think he’s the most likely person to win the RBC Heritage if Scheffler is excluded, so his number (+1450) is excellent compared to Scheffler’s +450.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 21.75 (to win +1450)
Matt Fitzpatrick to win the RBC Heritage +3050 (Bookmaker)
Matt Fitzpatrick won this tournament last year. He’s a great fit for this course, so that wasn’t a surprise. He’s in the top 10 of my model, and he’s been hot lately. He finished fifth at the Players, 10th at the Valero Texas Open, and 22nd at the Masters.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30.5 (to win +3050)
Sahith Theegala to win the RBC Heritage +4050 (Bookmaker)
Sahith Theegala is a great fit for this course, ranking fifth in my model. Coincidentally, he finished fifth at this tournament last year. He’s had fifth-, sixth- and ninth-place finishes since Feb. 11, so it feels like he’s right on the cusp of winning. He provides great value at 40/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 40.5 (to win +4050)
Matthieu Pavon to win the RBC Heritage +9050 (Bookmaker)
Someone needs to explain this number to me. Matthieu Pavon is not some no-name scrub who spiked one tournament this year. He won the Farmers Insurance Open, then followed that up with third at Pebble Beach. And just last week, he finished 12th at the Masters. Pavon ranks in the top five of my model this week, so 90/1 seems like a steal.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 45.25 (to win +9050) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Emiliano Grillo to win the RBC Heritage +14050 (Bookmaker)
Emiliano Grillo is a great bet at 140/1. He has two top-10 finishes this year, and he was seventh at this tournament last year. He didn’t make the cut at the Masters, but this is a much friendlier golf course for him, as he specializes in accuracy, approach and putting, which is what you need to win at Hilton Head.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 35.13 (to win +14050)
PGA Bets for the Masters:
It was nice to hit our first huge bet of the year, getting Akshay Bhatia at 68/1. It was very tilting down the stretch when Denny McCarthy was making everything near the green, so it was shocking when McCarthy dunked the ball into the water during the first overtime hole. We’ll definitely take it as we move on to the Masters, which features all the best golfers in the world. This is the first tournament of the year where we have to worry about the LIV golfers competing with Scottie Scheffler and everyone else on the PGA Tour.
Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters +480 (Bookmaker)
There’s no way I’m not betting Scottie Scheffler as a built-in hedge on my card. I’d recommend for you to do that with Scheffler or Jon Rahm, but not both. Scheffler is the best golfer on the planet right now, and he appears to have fixed his putting issue. He’s the best fit for this course, ranking No. 1 in the model. Scheffler finished second in his previous showing, but he didn’t even have his “A” game for that tournament.
Betting 2 Units to win 9.6 (to win +480)
Hideki Matsuyama to win the Masters +2200 (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Aside from Scottie Scheffler, there may not be a hotter golfer on the PGA Tour than Hideki Matsuyama. In his previous four tournaments, he’s finished first, 12th, sixth, and seventh. He’s also a great fit for this course, which isn’t a surprise because he won the Masters in 2021. He’s sixth in the model, so he’s definitely worth a bet at 22/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22 (to win +2200) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Will Zalatoris to win the Masters +4550 (Bookmaker)
Will Zalatoris had a back injury last year that knocked him out for most of the 2023 season, but he has been rounding into shape lately. He has recently posted second- and fourth-place finishes, and he could be 100 percent for the Masters. Zalatoris ranks eighth in the model, and he’s finished second and sixth in his two appearances at the Masters, so he seems like a steal at 45/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 45.5 (to win +6850)
Sahith Theegala to win the Masters +5000 (FanDuel)
Everyone on our After Dark Show loved Sahith Theegala. Watch here:
I’m on board. He’s 11th in my model, but he’s done very well at the Masters, so he seems like a steal at 50/1. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 25 (to win +5000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Si Woo Kim to win the Masters +8550 (Bookmaker)
Si Woo Kim has been hot lately, finishing sixth and 17th in his previous two tournaments. He’s also a great fit for this course, ranking fifth in the model. Kim also has a solid history at the Masters, finishing 12th a few years ago.
Betting 0.35 Units to win 29.92 (to win +8550)
Sergio Garcia to win the Masters +12000 (FanDuel)
Sergio Garcia is my ultra long shot to win at 120/1. He somehow came up fourth in the model because of some terrific scrambling and par-five scoring numbers. He also excels at approach, which is very important for the Masters. Also, course history is a plus for Garcia, who won the Masters in 2017. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 30 (to win +12000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Hedge: Ludvig Aberg to win the Masters +750 (Caesars)
Scottie Scheffler is up two strokes on Ludvig Aberg as of this writing. I’m going to hedge with Aberg for 0.25 units.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 1.87 (to win +750)
PGA Bets for the Valero Texas Open:
Scottie Scheffler missed a 3-foot putt to send the Houston Open into overtime versus Stephan Jaegar this past weekend. Bummer. Scheffler’s not in the field this week, so it’s wide open. Rory McIlroy deserves to be the favorite, but I will not be betting him at about 9/1.
Corey Conners to win the Valero Texas Open +3050 (Bookmaker)
Corey Conners won this tournament last year, and that was no fluke. Conners’ game is a terrific fit for this course; in fact, he ranks No. 1 in my model, even ahead of McIlroy. Conners’ ranks in off the tee, par-five scoring and approach are all high. He’s a great bargain at 30/1.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30.5 (to win +3050)
Keith Mitchell to win the Valero Texas Open +6500 (FanDuel)
Keith Mitchell comes in fourth in my model. He ranks highly in off the tee and approach. He’s finished in the top 20 in four of his six previous tournaments, including ninth at the Cognizant Classic, so he’s been golfing well lately.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30.25 (to win +4050) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Akshay Bhatia to win the Valero Texas Open +6850 (Bookmaker)
Akshay Bhatia is sixth in the model. He ranks in the top 40 in off the tee and approach. He’s come close to winning recently, finishing 11th and 17th in the previous two tournaments.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 34.25 (to win +6850)
Erik Van Rooyen to win the Valero Texas Open +9050 (Bookmaker)
Erik Van Rooyen is fifth in the model. His approach game isn’t stellar, but he’s tremendous off the tee, and he’s great in par-five scoring. He’s been hot lately as well. Prior to the Players Championship, he finished second, eighth, and 25th.
Betting 0.4 Units to win 36.2 (to win +9050)
Kevin Dougherty to win the Valero Texas Open +40000 (FanDuel)
Yes, 400/1. Kevin Dougherty has somehow come up second in my model, so he’s worth a shot. Dougherty ranks insanely high in off the tee, which is great for this course. He also does well in par-five scoring. His short game sucks, so hopefully that doesn’t hurt him too much on this course. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.1 Units to win 40 (to win +40000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Hedge: Denny McCarthy to win the Valero Texas Open +450 (Bookmaker)
Akshay Bhatia looks great to win as of Sunday morning. He’s -15, while the next-closest golfer, Denny McCarthy, is -11. After that, the next score is -8. I’m going to take out a two-unit hedge on McCarthy, just in case Bhatia implodes on Sunday.
Betting 2 Units to win 9 (to win +450)
PGA Bets for the Houston Open:
Xander Schauffele didn’t come through for us last week, finishing fifth after a late charge on Sunday. Congrats to Peter Malnati for winning. If you didn’t see Malnati’s teary-eyed post-tournament interview, it’s worth watching.
Scottie Scheffler is back on the menu this week, which means we’re going to be betting him. However, there are some long shots of interest.
Scottie Scheffler to win the Houston Open +275 (FanDuel)
Scottie Scheffler was already the best golfer in the world prior to March despite his issues with the putter. After taking some time off and changing his putter, Scheffler has been putting extremely well. In fact, he finished first in putting on Sunday of the Players Championship, which is insane. If Scheffler continues to putt at a high level, no one is going to beat him. I know +275 sucks to bet, but Scheffler should be closer to +100 in this field. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 3 Units to win 8.25 (to win +275) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Alex Noren to win the Houston Open +4050 (Bookmaker)
Alex Noren checks in second in my model behind Scottie Scheffler. Noren is a great fit for this course, and he’s been golfing well lately, finishing ninth and 19th in his previous two tournaments.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 20.25 (to win +4050) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Billy Horschel to win the Houston Open +7050 (Bookmaker)
Billy Horschel is third in my model behind Scheffler and Noren. Horschel finished ninth three tournaments ago. He’s a good golfer who has what it takes to win if Scheffler inexplicably slips up.
Betting 0.3 Units to win 21.15 (to win +7050)
Andrew Novak to win the Houston Open +14550 (Bookmaker)
Here’s my long shot to win. Andrew Novak is 145/1 at Bookmaker, yet he’s fourth in my model. He’s had some great finishes recently as well. In four of his previous five tournaments, Novak has finished eighth, eighth, ninth, and 17th.
Betting 0.15 Units to win 21.83 (to win +14550) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Valspar Championship:
Congrats if you hit with Scottie Scheffler last week. It was the first time we bet a favorite this year, and it paid off. If Scheffler has figured out his putting, he’s going to win so tournaments this year.
Scheffler is not in the field this week, so it’s wide open. My pick to win is Xander Schauffele, but he’s the favorite and priced unfavorably at +650. I may want to bet him live at some point, but the only golfer I’d bet at that number is Scheffler.
Doug Ghim to win the Valspar Championship +5000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim is a great bet to win the Valspar. He’s finished 13th, 12th, eighth, 16th, and 16th in his previous five tournaments. He fits this course extremely well. In a diminished field, he could definitely win this week. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 50 (to win +5000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Billy Horschel to win the Valspar Championship +10551 (Bookmaker)
Billy Horschel is 105/1, yet he’s actually No. 1 in my model. He’s third in greens in regulation and does well in par-three scoring, both of which are key for this course. Horschel finished ninth two tournaments ago, and this is a weak field outside of Schauffele and Sam Burns.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 52.75 (to win +10551)
Ben Silverman to win the Valspar Championship +20000 (FanDuel)
Ben Silverman has three top-20 finishes this year, and now he’ll be playing in a weaker field. Silverman projects well for this course because he scores highly in the two major categories and also putts well. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 50 (to win +20000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Hayden Springer to win the Valspar Championship +35000 (FanDuel)
Hayden Springer is my super long shot to win this tournament. I can’t believe he’s 350/1. Springer finished third at the Puerto Rico Open a couple of weeks ago. He rates highly in greens in regulation and par-three scoring, and he also putts well. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.15 Units to win 52.5 (to win +35000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Xander Schauffele to win the Valspar Championship +1600 (FanDuel)
As promised above, I wanted to bet Xander Schauffele at a better number. He was +625, but he’s now 16/1. He’s four strokes back of the lead, which seems doable. Schauffele is the best golfer in this field, and I believe he will win. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 16 (to win +1600) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Players Championship:
Shane Lowry looked like he had a chance once again on Sunday as our 75/1 long shot, but he and everyone else got steamrolled by Scottie Scheffler.
The Players Championship is one of the toughest courses on the tour. Seventeen of the 18 holes have water hazards. We’re looking at golfers with high greens-in-regulation percentages, as well as those who have good form at the moment.
Scottie Scheffler to win the Players Championship +550 (every sportsbook)
I seldom bet the favorite, but if Scottie Scheffler figured out his putter, the entire PGA tour is in trouble because he could go on a Tiger Woods-type run and win everything. Scheffler is the best ball striker on tour, but his putting has been terrible. Yet, he was first in putting during the final round last weekend! Whatever Scheffler did during his week off is paying dividends. If it continues, he’ll win this tournament easily. He’s first in greens-in-regulation percentage, and no one has better form than him. He even won this tournament last year. When factoring everything in, +550 actually seems like a good deal.
Betting 3 Units to win 16.5 (to win +550)
Si-Woo Kim to win the Players Championship +5500 (FanDuel)
We can take some long shots to accompany our Scottie Scheffler bet. Si-Woo Kim is a previous winner at this tournament. He’s 17th in greens-in-regulation percentage and has performed well lately. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 27.5 (to win +5500) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Tony Finau to win the Players Championship +6000 (FanDuel)
Tony Finau is 11th in greens-in-regulation percentage, and he’s great with his irons. In three of the past four tournaments, he’s gone sixth, 13th, and 19th. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Keith Mitchell to win the Players Championship +10000 (FanDuel)
Keith Mitchell is one of two extreme long shots at 100/1. Mitchell is third in greens-in-regulation percentage. In his previous three tournaments, he’s finished 17th, 19th, and ninth. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 25 (to win +10000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Doug Ghim to win the Players Championship +11000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim is my second long shot. Ghim has been hot this year. In his previous four tournaments, he’s finished 16th, eighth, 12th, and 13th. Speaking of 13th, that would be Ghim’s ranking in greens-in-regulation percentage. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Unit to win 27.5 (to win +11000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:
Ugh. For the second week in a row, we had someone 41/1 or better tied on Sunday, only to see them choke.
The Arnold Palmer Classic features one of the toughest golf courses on the tour. It requires golfers to be excellent in all metrics, particularly in approach.
Xander Schauffele to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +1850 (Bookmaker)
Xander Schauffele is my pick to win the Arnold Palmer. He has no flaws in his game. He could be a bit more accurate, but he’s great elsewhere. He’s also been so close to winning this year. He’s gotten 10th, third, ninth and fourth place in four of his five events.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 27.75 (to win +1850)
Collin Morikawa to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +2650 (Bookmaker)
Collin Morikawa is pretty close to Xander Schauffele. Morikawa is great at everything except putting, which isn’t as prevalent on this course as it is on some others. He has gotten top 20 in all but one tournament this year, including fifth at the Sentry.
Betting 1 Unit to win 26.5 (to win +2650)
Sam Burns to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +2750 (Bookmaker)
Sam Burns is in the top five of my model, but I wasn’t sure if I wanted to bet him at a price lower than 35/1. However, Jacob Camenker told me that he has Burns No. 1 in his model, so perhaps there’s a reason that Burns is just +2750.
Betting 1 Unit to win 27.5 (to win +2750)
Jake Knapp to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +6000 (FanDuel)
Jake Knapp is a 29-year-old rookie who has been awesome this year. In his previous three tournaments, he’s finished third, first, and fourth. It was remarkable how well he did last weekend after winning the Mexico Open. He grades out extremely well in the model, so 60/1 seems like a great value. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 30 (to win +6000)
Shane Lowry to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +7500 (FanDuel)
We’re riding with Shane Lowry again as one of our two long shots. Lowry is a great fit for this course, as he excels in all the major categories essential for the Arnold Palmer. Hopefully he doesn’t choke on Sunday again! You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Unit to win 37.5 (to win +7500)
Mathieu Pavon to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +9000 (FanDuel)
Mathieu Pavon has been one of the best golfers this year. In three of his five tournaments, he’s finished third, first, and seventh. He’s great in all categories, so 90/1 seems like a steal. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 45 (to win +9000)
PGA Bets for the Cognizant Classic:
What a disappointment. Sami Valimaki had the Mexico Open for the taking, but hit the water on 10 and that was that. I tweeted out a hedge on Jake Knapp, so we got that at least.
We move on to the Cognizant Classic, which is the first year it’s being called the Cognizant Classic, so I’m not sure why it’s a “classic.” I know this used to be the Honda Classic, but still.
This course is the opposite of the Mexico Open. The Mexico Open called for great driving distance, while the Cognizant Classic contains so many water hazards that accuracy is most important, followed by approach play.
Shane Lowry to win the Cognizant Classic +4151 (Bookmaker)
Shane Lowry is first in my model. He’s extremely accurate. He’s ranked highly in approach. He tends to play well on water-heavy courses. He has a great course history. He finished second and fifth at this tournament in the past two seasons. He’s a steal at 41/1 at Bookmaker.
Betting 1.25 Units to win 51.89 (to win +4151)
Daniel Berger to win the Cognizant Classic +5250 (Bookmaker)
Daniel Berger is right behind Lowry in my model. He’s a very similar golfer to Lowry. He also has a great course and course-type history. The last time he played at this course, he finished fourth.
Betting 1 Unit to win 52.5 (to win +5250)
Chris Kirk to win the Cognizant Classic +4001 (Bookmaker)
Chris Kirk is third in my model. He won this tournament last year, and he’s been excellent thus far this season with a win at the Sentry nearly two months ago.
Betting 1 Unit to win 40.01 (to win +4001)
Seppulon Straka to win the Cognizant Classic +4501 (Bookmaker)
We rode Seppulon Straka to victory last year at the John Deere Classic, so let’s do that again at this tournament! Straka won the Honda Classic two years ago, and he’s an amazing fit for this course.
Betting 1 Unit to win 45.01 (to win +4501)
Carson Young to win the Cognizant Classic +12500 (BetMGM)
Here’s my long shot to win this tournament. Carson Young has made great strides to improve his game – he just finished eighth at the Mexico Open, which wasn’t even a tremendous course fit for him – and now he may be ready to take down a PGA tournament. His accuracy and approach metrics are both excellent, so he’s a great fit for this course. Unlike the other bets, the best number can be found at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 31.25 (to win +12500) Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM
Hedges:
Shane Lowry is in a great position to win, but it’s worth hedging. I like Austin Eckroat – he rated relatively highly in my model – and I’m not a believer in this David Skinns guy, so I will do the following:
Austin Eckroat to win +350 (2 Units) – BetMGM
David Skinns to win +800 (0.5 Units) – BetMGM
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PGA Bets for the Mexico Open:
The Gensis Invitational didn’t go so well, as Hideki Matsuyama not only won, but broke the course record. We didn’t have him ranked highly in the model, so the course may not have been diagnosed correctly. I think the Mexico Open is more predictable.
Taylor Pendrith to win the Mexico Open +2850 (Bookmaker)
Tony Finau is No. 1 in my model, but he’s +750 or so. Taylor Pendrith is right behind Finau at No. 2, and yet he’s +2850 at Bookmaker. This course calls for either great power or tremendous long iron play, and Pendrith is fantastic in both regards.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 42.75 (to win +2850)
Davis Thompson to win the Mexico Open +4250 (Bookmaker)
Davis Thompson is third in the model. He’s a top-15 player when it comes to long irons, and he has enough power to blast the ball past the bunkers on this course. Thompson is 35/1 in most places, but you can get +4250 at Bookmaker.
Betting 1 Unit to win 42.5 (to win +4250)
Brandon Wu to win the Mexico Open +4853 (Bookmaker)
Brandon Wu has mastered this course. In the past two years, he’s finished third and second. Now, Jon Rahm is gone, so Wu has a great chance to win it. Wu is a great irons player and putts extremely well on this grass. He’s fifth in the model.
Betting 1 Unit to win 48.53 (to win +4853)
Sami Valimaki to win the Mexico Open +11000 (FanDuel)
Here’s my long shot. Sami Valimaki is a European golfer who hits the ball with great power. He won a tournament on the European tour in October. I wouldn’t like him against the top PGA golfers, but this is not a strong field by any means. Valimaki ranks fourth in the model, yet is 110/1! Unlike the other picks, the best sportsbook for this wager is FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 27.5 (to win +11000) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
Jake Knapp Hedge +110 (FanDuel)
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Betting 3 Units to win 3.3 (to win +110) Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel
PGA Bets for the Genesis Invitational:
The NFL season is over, so our golf picks are back! I don’t like making golf bets in January anyway because the layoff could impact everyone’s game, which skews the stats as a result. Now that we’ve had some tournaments to begin the 2024 season, we have some good data to hopefully make some great bets like we did in 2023.
Sam Burns to win the Genesis Invitational +2250 (Bookmaker)
I’m jealous of those who were able to get Sam Burns at 35/1, and even 25/1. This number has been hammered down for good reason. Burns is actually No. 1 in my model. He’s been hot to start 2024, finishing in the top 10 in the previous three events. I don’t mind 22/1 on Burns when he’s my No. 1 golfer this week.
Betting 1 Unit to win 22.5 (to win +2250)
Wyndham Clark to win the Genesis Invitational +4650 (Bookmaker)
This number is shocking. Wyndham Clark is one of the top golfers in the world. He’s won three tournaments since May 2023. He’s also a perfect fit for this golf course with his great power. And yet, he’s just 46.5/1? Clark is No. 2 in my model this week, so I’m more than happy to bet him at +4650.
Betting 1 Unit to win 46.5 (to win +4650)
Sahith Theegala to win the Genesis Invitational +3500 (DraftKings)
Sahith Theegala is knocking on the door of a trophy with two top-five finishes this season. He’s a great fit for this golf course – he’s fifth in my model – so he’s a great bet at 35/1. Shopping around is key, as I’ve seen Theegala as low as 22/1 at some books. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.
Betting 1 Unit to win 35 (to win +3500) Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings
Kurt Kitayama to win the Genesis Invitational +9050 (Bookmaker); to finish top 10 +500 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
Kurt Kitayama is my long shot this week. He’s about 90/1 despite being 11th in my model. He has great power, so he’s a great fit for this course. I’m also going to take a shot on him finishing in the top 10 at 5/1, which you can find at any sportsbook.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 45.25 (to win +9050)
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2.5 (top 10 +500)
To check out our 2023 PGA Picks, click the link.
