NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2025): 9-7 (+$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2025): 11-5 (+$600)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2025): 12-4 (+$2,585)
2025 NFL Picks: 142-121-4 (+$4,240)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 4, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 18 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 17 Analysis: We had our best week of the year. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Broncos, 3 units (loss): Our best week of the year began with a loss, but we made up for it with Bo Nix rushing props. Still, it was an embarrassing performance by Denver. This Broncos team is a paper tiger.

Bengals, 5 units (win): One of the easiest wins we had this year.

Saints, 3 units (win): We needed a comeback and a defensive touchdown in this one, so we were a bit lucky to cover. However, the Titans were able to score early on what the announcers called “magical acts,” so I don’t think we were that lucky.

Jaguars, 5 units (win): A front-door field goal helped us, but there was so much BS in this game favoring the Colts.

Patriots, 5 units (win): An even easier win than the Bengals. The Patriots could have scored 70 if they kept their foot on the gas.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers probably never would have imagined fighting for their playoff lives against the Panthers in Week 18 back when they were 6-2, but here we are. The Buccaneers have gone 1-7 since their hot start, winning only against the Cardinals by three in the process. It’s been an epic collapse that could be completed in this game.

Baker Mayfield posted pretty stats in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, but those were very misleading numbers. Mayfield was horrible in the game. He has an easy matchup this week, but it’s not like he didn’t enjoy that luxury at Miami. The Dolphins have struggled to defend the pass all year as a result of their pedestrian pass rush, yet Mayfield couldn’t even post more than 17 points on a Miami defense that surrendered 45 points to the Bengals the prior week.

Something Mayfield couldn’t do last week was lean on Bucky Irving because the Dolphins maintain a top-10 run defense. The Panthers don’t play the rush nearly as well, ranking 22nd in that regard. Irving figures to be far more productive this week.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Mayfield’s poor play is just part of the equation regarding Tampa Bay’s futility over its previous eight games. The defense has been atrocious, ranking an embarrassing 30th. A unit with Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Jamel Dean should never be ranked 30th, but here we are.

The Buccaneers used to count on their stout run defense, but they haven’t been able to put the clamps on opposing ground attacks this year. The issue is Vea’s health. Vea has an ailing back that has prevented him from reaching his full potential. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard figure to run well on the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay also has a very lackluster pass rush. Bryce Young saw tons of pressure last week versus Seattle’s elite defense. There will be a stark difference in this matchup.

RECAP: I had dreams of fading the Buccaneers as more of a field goal. Alas, this spread is below a field goal, yet it’s still too high. The Buccaneers are a complete mess. Mayfield isn’t healthy, while the defense can’t stop anyone, even Quinn Ewers. The clueless Todd Bowles has no answers, but it’s OK because Bruce Arians aimed to assemble the most diverse coaching staff in the NFL. We can safely call Bowles the Mina Kimes of coaching hires.

There’s a chance the Buccaneers could ride Irving to victory, especially if Young has some bad moments. However, Young has a very easy matchup and should have one of his good games before being embarrassed in the opening round of the playoffs.

Given the way these teams are trending, I don’t think the Buccaneers should be favored at home because they have zero home-field advantage – check the trends below to see why – so I will be on the Panthers to open Week 18.

Our Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs returned to a limited practice on Wednesday, which is obviously a good sign. Conversely, it’s not great to see that Baker Mayfield was limited on Tuesday. He’s certainly not 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers will have Tristan Wirfs back from injury, so they won’t be missing three offensive linemen like they were last week. I think the Panthers are worth a small bet, but wagering live on the team that falls behind could be the better move.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are split on this game, with one group liking the Panthers at +3, and the other liking the Buccaneers at -2.5. I still plan on betting against the team that scores the first touchdown. The best line is +3 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Panthers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The public is backing the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (160,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Buccaneers have won 12 the last 15 meetings.

Road Team is 151-105 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 46-81 ATS at home in the previous 126 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If you listen to all the talking heads on TV, you’ll think that this iteration of the 49ers has an offensive attack as lethal as the Greatest Show on Turf. After all, it sounds overly impressive to say that the 49ers didn’t punt in December prior to the Chicago game in which they posted 42 points despite missing George Kittle and Trent Williams.

The 49ers have great talent on their roster and are coached incredibly well by Kyle Shanahan – offensively, that is – but it must be noted that the 49ers have battled some very sketchy defenses recently. They vanquished the Bears, Colts, and Titans in their previous three games, and none of those teams have a pass rush. Brock Purdy has had all the time in the world, while Christian McCaffrey has been able to run through wide-open lanes.

The Seahawks won’t be as accommodating. They have the most pressures in the NFL, and they also boast a top-three run defense. McCaffrey won’t find much running room, while Purdy will have defenders hounding him, especially if Williams can’t play. Having Kittle will be crucial because Seattle’s only defensive weakness is against tight ends.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Speaking of teams that have no pass rush, the 49ers can’t get to the quarterback whatsoever. It was very telling a few weeks ago when they were battling the Titans. Cam Ward holds the ball longer than any quarterback in the NFL, yet San Francisco couldn’t sack him on a single occasion.

This has to be music to Sam Darnold’s ears. Every quarterback performs worse when under pressure, but Darnold takes things to another level. When pressured as opposed to being kept clean, Darnold’s completion percentage falls from 74.4 to 50.4, and his YPA drops from 9.4 to 6.5. Darnold folds like a cheap suit while under pressure, but he won’t have to worry about that in this game. He’ll have all the time he needs to locate Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The 49ers will at least be able to limit Seattle’s rushing attack a bit. They’re not great against the run, ranking 18th in that regard, but they’re at least not completely inept.

RECAP: The 49ers beat the Seahawks in the opener because they were able to apply heavy pressure on Darnold via Nick Bosa and other talented defensive linemen. Those players are long gone due to injuries. San Francisco’s defense is a mere shell of itself, so the Seahawks shouldn’t have an issue scoring.

But the 49ers will be able to match them point for point, right? I imagine many think so, but I don’t. The 49ers have had the luxury of battling some of the worst defenses in the NFL in recent weeks. This, however, is a major step up in class. The Seahawks are ranked in first defense, so it would be shocking if we saw Purdy put together another tremendous performance.

Shanahan is a master schemer, and the 49ers often thrive when battling an opponent with a glaring weakness, but Shanahan won’t be able to find any chinks in the armor of Seattle’s defense. The lone exception is Seattle’s weakness to tight ends, but Kittle is not completely healthy. So, it remains to be seen if the 49ers can take full advantage of that, and it may not be enough anyway.

I like the Seahawks despite the fact that they’re road favorites. They opened as underdogs, so it’s telling that they are now expected to win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams has not practiced yet this week. The 49ers didn’t need him against Chicago’s lackluster pass rush, but if he can’t go, he’ll sorely be missed against the Seahawks and their excellent pass rush.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trent Williams has not been ruled out yet. He didn’t practice a single time all week, but he’s still listed as questionable along with George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Kittle will play, while Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall will not. No Williams against Seattle’s defense is tough, so I can understand why the sharps would be on Seattle. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Seahawks -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Decent action coming in on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 72% (165,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

49ers are 47-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989. ???

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 53 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 26-48-1 heading into Week 17.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -7

Cowboys -9

Broncos -13

Steelers -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17. Booo!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bills -7

Chargers +12.5

Rams -3.5

Packers +6.5

Looking at these bets, it seems as though the public doesn’t recognize which teams will be sitting their starters.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers had a chance at the division last week. That ended when they lost to the Ravens, so this game no longer means anything. With “No Cookie” Jordan Love suffering a concussion recently, and Malik Willis hurting his shoulder on Saturday night, there’s a very good chance we’ll get Clayton Tune in this game.

Tune is not an NFL-caliber player, and if that weren’t bad enough, he almost certainly won’t have Christian Watson and the other veteran receivers at his disposal. Matthew Golden might play, but that’s probably it. And you can be sure that Josh Jacobs won’t see the field.

All of this would be sort of OK if the Vikings didn’t have a stellar defense, but they do. Brian Flores just befuddled Jared Goff, holding the Lions to 10 points. He’s going to have a field day with Tune.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings know all about terrible quarterbacking. They suffered through J.J. McCarthy when he embarrassed himself against some of the top defenses in the NFL, and just as he was playing better, he injured his throwing hand and had to be relieved by the anemic Max Brosmer, who scored a combined three points in his first six quarters of action.

Brosmer was marginally better last Saturday, but only because he was battling a Detroit defense that gave up. Even still, Brosmer struggled to complete basic passes. He’ll have a similar matchup this week, given that the Packers will be sitting some veterans. And it’s not like Green Bay’s defense was playing well anyhow, as the unit has been a mere shell of its former self ever since losing Micah Parsons.

The Vikings should at least be able to run the ball on the Packers. We just saw Green Bay’s defense surrender 200 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, and now the defense won’t have some veterans. Aaron Jones figures to be in for a big day in a revenge spot.

RECAP: We don’t know who will be quarterbacking for both teams. McCarthy could return from his hand injury, but Brosmer might start another game. Meanwhile, I believe Tune will make the start for the Packers, but if Willis is feeling healthy, it could be him.

I want to fade the Packers if Tune gets the nod. Tune versus Flores smells like a shutout loss.

Once we find out more information, I’ll post an update. We’ll be looking to lock in this quickly if Tune is confirmed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has been announced about the Packers starters, but even if they go with their bench players, Malik Willis could get the nod. Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy had a limited practice on Wednesday, so we’re waiting on his status as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: Clayton Tune and J.J. McCarthy will start. This makes the Vikings an easy play. Given that the Packers will be playing their backups, this line is way too short.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a “breaking news” report this morning saying that the Packers are going to sit their starters. Uhh… wasn’t that evident back on Wednesday? The sharps have been betting the Vikings all week. The best line is -12.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Packers will be resting their starters. The Vikings are playing to have a winning record.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public doesn’t know it’s betting on Clayton Tune.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 65% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Teams have split 4 of the past 5 years.

Packers are 69-47 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 62-49 ATS in the regular season.

Vikings are 52-42 ATS at home since 2014 (21-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for one of the ladders we hit:

This is what we, in the industry, like to call “egg on the face.”

Meanwhile, we had an eventful week. Benjamin Allbright, a failed reporter who has never gotten a single report correct, went on an unhinged rant about this Web site. Allbright didn’t even allow me to respond because he preemptively blocked me like some 12-year-old girl, but I was able to enrage his dumb followers who aren’t aware of how horrible of a reporter he is. Here’s an example:

I’ll have much more on this in the coming weeks, but this is an example of Benjamin Allbright being a failed reporter. He says our mock drafts are inaccurate, but Fantasy Pros has us having the most accurate mock drafts in the world.

This is a sad case of Benjamin Allbright being so dumb and so bad at his job that he assumes that everyone else is just as dumb and as bad at their job as he is. It’s very sad, and maybe some day he’ll get a report correct, but that’s unlikely to happen because no one is as bad at their job as Benjamin Allbright.

Benjamin Allbright’s post got the attention of someone named IncarceratedBlob, whom I had never heard of before he messaged me. Apparently, he has a big following, probably because he pays for Twitter subscribers. I checked out his posts, and there’s nothing remarkable about him. I guess you could say he’s the Benjamin Allbright of X posting. Here’s one of the exchanges we had:

See what I mean? This guy is so stupid that he assumes everyone is just as stupid as he is, and he can’t fathom how we’d have so much success in our industry. It’s quite disturbing, but we’ll have more on this in the coming weeks!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Philip Rivers can go back to high school. He started some games for the Colts, but never won. He came close last week, but only because of some special teams nonsense and weird Jacksonville turnovers in the red zone. Riley Leonard will take over as the starter this week.

Throwing Leonard to the wolves is an interesting move. I guess the Colts will find out something about him if he can somehow play well against one of the top defenses in the NFL. My guess for what will happen is that Houston’s defense will tear him apart. Leonard can move around a bit, so he might be able to scramble away from pressure on occasion, but the Texans’ defense will devour him.

The Colts will obviously try to take the ball out of Leonard’s hands by feeding Jonathan Taylor. This won’t work so well because, just like Indianapolis’ previous opponents, the Texans will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage than they would have if Daniel Jones were still under center. Besides, the Texans are fourth against the run. Taylor won’t be able to do much against them.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans will be hoping that they can once again get the C.J. Stroud that they saw on the opening two drives of the Chargers game. Stroud launched two deep touchdowns to give the Texans a 14-0 lead, but did nothing after that.

Which Stroud will the Texans get this week? Well, we know that Stroud will be battling a far worse defense this week than what he saw this past Saturday. The Chargers were No. 2 in defensive EPA heading into that game. The Colts are 23rd. They’ve had issues in their secondary, though Sauce Gardner’s return to action helps that. Still, there are deficiencies to exploit, which Trevor Lawrence did last week until he reached the red zone and made some mistakes.

The Texans should be able to run on the Colts as well. Woody Marks gives them potential for explosive plays out of the backfield, and Indianapolis’ rush defense is substantially weaker with DeForest Buckner injured.

RECAP: Leonard is an ease fade against Houston’s defense. The last time a backup quarterback went up against the Texans, Jacoby Brissett got blown out in a 40-20 loss in which Houston led 17-0 and allowed all of Brissett’s stats in garbage time. Backup quarterbacks like Brissett are just not equipped to deal with an elite defense like Houston’s, and Brissett is a far better and more experienced quarterback than Leonard.

There might be some worry about backing the Texans at such a high number because their offense is not explosive, but I don’t think this spread is high enough. I made this line -13.5, and I have no concerns about Houston scoring against an Indianapolis defense that has been dreadful during the past month. Oh, and the Texans will be fighting hard to potentially win the division, so it’s not like we have to worry about the sort of emotional letdown that we saw versus the Raiders two weeks ago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner was placed on injured reserve, while Sauce Gardner’s week got off to a bad start with a DNP on Wednesday. It looks like we’re going to see the Colts continue to have severe defensive issues.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans were missing both tackles last week, but it looks like both could be back. At the very least, Aireontae Ersery will be available. The Texans should have an easy time dispatching the Colts, who won’t have Sauce Gardner in addition to DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, this sucks. I submitted the Texans as a pick for my betting contests (Circa, Supercontests), and it was just announced that Nico Collins is a healthy scratch. I can’t bet the Texans if they’re going to sit their best player because they are not taking this game seriously. I’m dropping all of my units. The sharps bet the Colts this morning. The best line is -9.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Texans can win the division. The Colts were just eliminated.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Texans -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 58% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Colts have won 32 of the 46 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.

Opening Line: Texans -10.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We’ve reached the portion of the season where people can say, “No one wants to face the Bengals right now, so every AFC team is lucky that they’re eliminated.” Usually, this is utter nonsense, but I think it has some merit this year because none of the AFC teams are all that great.

The basis behind this statement is that Joe Burrow is playing incredibly well right now. He had one bad game in the second meeting against the Ravens, but has been spectacular otherwise. Burrow will be tested, however, against the Browns, a team that has owned him. Myles Garrett, in particular, has been a terror for Burrow. Garrett needs one sack to break the all-time record, but he may get five sacks in this matchup.

Burrow won’t be able to lean on any sort of rushing attack either. Chase Brown has scored a barrage of touchdowns recently, but his ability to run well is created from the pass, and if Burrow isn’t having the same sort of success this week, then Brown will be limited.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Another reason why the above statement applies this year is that the Bengals are better defensively recently. Their defense isn’t exactly playing well, but it’s been on a below-average level over the past month-and-a-half.

Below average is exactly what the Bengals will need to prevent the Browns from scoring very much, provided that Cleveland won’t have its tight ends. Both David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. are injured. If they’re both out, then the Browns won’t be able to exploit Cincinnati’s biggest weakness. No team has surrendered more production to tight ends than the Bengals, but this obviously won’t be a factor if Njoku and Fannin both sit.

The Browns won’t get much on the ground either. This may surprise a lot of people, but since the midway point of the season, the Bengals are a respectable 17th against the run. Quinshon Judkins may have been able to generate some big plays in this matchup, but he’s not available, so the Browns don’t have a viable rushing attack.

RECAP: I’ve been riding the Bengals for several weeks, but all good things must come to an end. We’re going to be siding with the Browns in this game.

There’s always a chance that Burrow slays his demons and finally overcomes this opponent, but Cleveland’s defense has been a thorn in his side for years. Blocking Garrett has especially been problematic.

I wish I had more faith in Cleveland’s offense to make this a big play. If it’s announced that either Njoku or Fannin will be available, I may end up betting the Browns, but as of right now, this will be a zero-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither David Njoku nor Harold Fannin practiced Wednesday, which is a bad sign for Cleveland’s chances, as is the fact that Carson Schwesinger missed practice as well. We’ll be monitoring this for the rest of the week. I may switch my pick to the Bengals, depending on what the injury status is.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been thinking about this game a lot, and the more I think of it, the more I’m sold that the Bengals are worth a bet. First of all, the Browns won’t have either tight end, or Carson Schwesinger. Second, Andy Iskoe made a great point that the Browns could be flat off their “Super Bowl” win versus the Steelers. And third, my premise was wrong about the Browns having the Bengals’ number. While this is true in Cleveland, the past three times these teams played in Cincinnati, the results have been:

Bengals 24, Browns 6

Bengals 31, Browns 14

Bengals 23, Browns 10

I’m putting three units on Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Bengals pretty aggressively over the past 48 hours. The best line is -9.5 -107 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 59% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 14 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters (Bengals won last 4 meetings).

Kevin Stefanski is 3-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Joe Burrow is 47-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 34 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I expected more from the Cowboys last week. Sure, they scored 30 points, but I thought they’d get much more than that against Wasington’s terrible defense. Shockingly, neither CeeDee Lamb nor George Pickens was able to generate much yardage.

That could easily change this week. The Giants have an even worse defense than the Redskins, so Dak Prescott shouldn’t have much trouble torching them. That’s exactly what happened in Week 2 when the Cowboys scored 40 points. Prescott threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns in that contest.

Javonte Williams also ran well in that game, which isn’t a surprise because the Giants have maintained the worst run defense in the NFL. Williams is banged up, but Malik Davis has shown that he can be productive as a replacement.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: In that 40-point Dallas affair, the Giants went toe to toe with the Cowboys, scoring 37 points. And that wasn’t Jaxson Dart doing all the damage, or even Jameis Winston. It was Russell Wilson, who has been atrocious in every other instance this year.

Dart struggled heading into the Raiders game, but he finally showed signs of life. He ran all over the Raiders, all while completing 22-of-30 passes. Granted, the Raiders weren’t trying, but Dart still had an impressive showing.

We’re going to see more of the same from Dart in this game because the Cowboys have an abysmal defense. Dallas allowed Josh Johnson to have a respectable performance last week, and it also surrendered a long touchdown run to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The Giants will be equipped to do some damage aerially and on the ground in this matchup.

RECAP: It’s not a surprise to see the spread drop from the opener of -5.5 to -4. There’s not much separation between these teams. Yes, the Cowboys’ offense is better than the Giants’ offense, but Dallas’ defense is a disaster. Again, this was a 40-37 affair in Week 2, and that was in Dallas with Wilson under center for the Giants.

I suspect we’ll see another close game. I hesitate to bet the Giants because they are the worse team, and the best unit of the four in this game is Dallas’ offense, but I think this will be a three-point affair, so I’m inclined to side with the sharps and take the points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. I still like the Giants a bit, but not enough to bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching to the Cowboys. The Giants won’t have a bunch of players, including Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson, so Jaxson Dart won’t have any viable receivers. Even worse, the Giants are dealing with the flu, so they could be sluggish in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve heard some rumors that the Cowboys are going to give Joe Milton some reps today. I don’t know how reliable this news is, but it would explain why the sharps have been betting the Giants. I’m going to switch back to the Giants, but won’t be betting them. The best line is +3 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Plenty of money on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 69% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 21 of the last 25 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -5.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Sunny, 34 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons were able to upset the Rams on Monday night, which undoubtedly frustrated the fans because it was a stark reminder of where this team could be with strong coaching. The Falcons were able to defeat Los Angeles with its strong rushing attack and defensive pressure. Bijan Robinson was the main catalyst of the offense, generating 195 rushing yards.

Robinson won’t have as easy of a matchup this week because the Saints are stout against the run. Robinson was limited to 70 rushing yards in the prior meeting, so Kirk Cousins will be asked to do much more in this game.

Obviously, that’s never a good thing. Cousins had a solid performance in New Orleans in the aforementioned prior meeting, but it’s not like the Falcons can rely on that happening again. Cousins is erratic and will be battling a Saints pass defense that has improved during the past month. It would be surprising if he played just as well in the rematch.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Meanwhile, Tyler Shough is expected to improve. Shough was making one of his first starts against the Falcons back in late November. He did not play well, but things have changed since then. Shough has bolstered his level of play each week.

Shough should definitely be better than the 30-of-43, 243-yard, one-interception performance we saw in New Orleans. Shough has established a great connection with Chris Olave and is scrambling more. He’s also protected well, so the Falcons’ pass rush won’t be able to tee off on him like they did against Matthew Stafford and battered offensive line on Monday night.

It would help Shough if he had a solid running game supporting him because the Falcons are weaker to the run than the pass. He didn’t have that in the prior meeting, but perhaps Audric Estime will be able to help this time. Estime ripped off 94 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries against the Titans’ 14th-ranked run defense last week, so that bodes well for this matchup.

RECAP: I always say that finding a game where we get the better team and motivation is the dream when it comes to handicapping. That’s certainly the case in this game.

The Saints are better than the Falcons. They have the superior quarterback at the moment. Shough is eighth in quarterback EPA, while Cousins is 13th. New Orleans’ defense is ranked seventh since the midway point of the season, while Atlanta’s defense is 17th. The Falcons have the better running game, but I believe the Saints are coached much better under Kellen Moore than the Falcons are under the inept Raheem Morris.

Motivation is often difficult to handicap, but this one is easy. The Falcons are coming off a huge upset victory against the Rams. This is a team that has often been flat as a pancake off upset wins, especially on national TV. Morris is still the coach, so I wouldn’t expect any other behavior from the Falcons, especially given that they already beat the Saints.

Oh, and this is also a short week for the Falcons. Bad teams often fare poorly coming off Monday Night Football because they need more preparation time than good teams.

Despite all of this, the Saints are 3.5-point underdogs? Are you kidding me!? I’m considering the Saints as my December NFL Pick of the Month. I’ll make up my mind when I see the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy and I had a long debate about this game even though we both like the Saints. Take a listen to this video if you want to hear it:

SATURDAY NOTES: Unfortunately, this will not be our Pick of the Month because Chris Olave is out. If Rashid Shaheed were still on the Saints, I’d be fine with it, but with Shaheed gone, and Olave sidelined, Tyler Shough won’t have any viable downfield threats. I still like the Saints a bit, but not nearly as much.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake London and Kyle Pitts are active after being questionable. This might be why the sharps bet the Falcons this morning. The best line is +4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Falcons are coming off an upset win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 54% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 11 of the last 16 meetings.

Falcons are 7-27 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 34 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars had some unlucky bounces in the Colts game, and they were apparently dealing with the flu. This was not apparent on the injury report, but Liam Coen mentioned it during the post-game press conference. Perhaps that had something to do with things not exactly going Jacksonville’s way.

The Jaguars should have better luck and success in this contest. They’re going against a Titans defense that can’t stop the pass at all. Tyler Shough just threw for 333 yards against Tennessee, all while completing 22-of-27 passes. If Shough could have a dominant performance like that, imagine what Trevor Lawrence will do with no pass rushers in his face.

The Titans are at least better against the run than the pass. Travis Etienne won’t do much as a runner, but Jacksonville will once again be able to effectively utilize him as a receiver out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Shough wasn’t the only quarterback who played well in last week’s thriller in Tennessee. Cam Ward was spectacular as well, albeit for a different reason. Ward made some ridiculous, magical plays, which I’ve dubbed as “magical,” only because the announcers were calling them “magical acts” during the broadcast.

I would not expect Ward to continue those magical acts in this game. In fact, we could see the opposite. Ward holds on to the ball longer than any other usual starter in the NFL. The Jaguars have a terrific pass rush, so that obviously bodes poorly for the No. 1 overall pick. Ward scored just three points in the previous matchup as a result, as he threw for a meager 141 yards on 38 pass attempts.

Like the Jaguars, the Titans will struggle to move the chains on the ground. The Jaguars boast a top-five run defense, so Tony Pollard won’t find any running room. Ward will have to do everything on his own, which won’t end well.

RECAP: The Jaguars are favored by about 13, which is probably the right line. We just saw the 49ers beat the Titans at home by 13 three weeks ago, and I would say that the Jaguars are a bit better than the 49ers. Both teams have great offenses, but Jacksonville is definitely better defensively. So, the Jaguars should be able to win by about 13 or possibly more.

What would worry me about betting the Jaguars is that they may not take Tennessee seriously. The Jaguars clobbered the Titans on the road several weeks ago, so they may think they’ll have an easy time in this game, whereas the Titans have gotten a bit better down the stretch. The Jaguars should still be able to win, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they allowed the Titans to hang around for a while.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still worry a bit about the Jaguars taking the Titans seriously. It would be shocking if they lost, but I think this game could be decided by single digits.

SATURDAY NOTES: No changes heading into the weekend. Still a very slight lean on the Titans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which isn’t a surprise. The best line is a standard +13.5 -110 at BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Jaguars just destroyed the Titans recently, so they may not take them seriously.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Jaguars -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Jaguars have won 6 of last 7 meetings.

Jaguars are 19-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Jaguars are 11-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Jaguars are 6-11 ATS as favorites of -7 or more coming off a loss.

Opening Line: Jaguars -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.