2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Chargers at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 17, including Derrick Henry over rushing yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

RESTED STARTERS: The Chargers have announced that they will rest their starters in this game. This is in contrast to last year when they played their starters despite being locked into a certain position. Thus, the Chargers won’t be very competitive, and we won’t delve into the matchups against backup scrubs.

RECAP: I thought the Chargers would play their starters like they did last year, but they’ve apparently learned their lesson. Trey Lance is a capable backup, but he won’t be playing with many other starters, so it’s hard to like his chances against the Broncos.

Then again, we can’t count on Denver covering the spread either. I think they will, but this is a team that couldn’t cover against the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs. The difference between that game and this one, however, is that the opposing coaching staff game planned for that contest. Jim Harbaugh won’t be spending energy doing so, opting instead to prepare for the playoffs.

I’m going to play the Broncos, despite their inability to cover large spreads. I’m going to assume that Harbaugh won’t be taking this game seriously, and if I’m right, the Broncos should be able to get the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We know the Chargers will be resting players. The only injured players we know of on the Broncos are Dre Greenlaw, who was DNP with a hamstring on Wednesday, and Pat Bryant who was limited with a concussion.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dre Greenlaw is out again, but the Broncos will get Pat Bryant back on the field, which will help the offense because Bryant has been improving in the second half of the year.

LOCKED IN: This spread has soared to -14, or even -14.5 in some places. Because 14 is such an important key number, I’m going to lock in -14 before it goes to -14.5 eveywhere. You can get -14 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Broncos are -14.5 in some books, but -14 is still available, so I didn’t need to lock it in on Saturday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no more -14s available, as the sharps have continued to bet the Broncos. The best line now is -14.5 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Chargers are resting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Broncos -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

People think the Chargers will play their starters.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 71% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chargers have won the last 3 meetings.

Jim Harbaugh is 14-6 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014. ???

Sean Payton is 14-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.