2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Lions at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Ben Johnson has done a great job in his first year as a head coach, but his inexperience could be his downfall. We’re seeing evidence of that, given that he has stated that his starters will play in this game. For what, to battle the Packers again after barely beating them? The Packers will be rested, but Chicago’s starters will be exhausted. Johnson is making a huge mistake.

This is an easy matchup for the offense, however. It doesn’t mean that Caleb Williams won’t be at risk of being injured, but Williams will be able to torch Detroit’s beleaguered, injury-ravaged secondary with ease. The Lions haven’t been able to stop the pass whatsoever in recent weeks, even making Aaron Rodgers look like the MVP of old. Williams is red hot and will be able to spread the ball around.

The Lions have also had issues stopping the run recently. This will be problematic in this matchup, with Chicago run blocking better than most teams in the NFL. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai could both have big games.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff is great when in perfect conditions. If he’s playing indoors and battling a defense with a mediocre or worse pass rush, he looks like Peyton Manning. Goff, however, is awful when facing heavy pressure and poor conditions. He had problems with the former against the Vikings last week. This week, he’ll have to deal with the weather.

It’s impossible to know what the weather will be anywhere days ahead of time, but for what it’s worth, the weather report says it’s supposed to be 28-30 degrees and possibly rainy/snowy in Chicago. Goff won’t face any sort of pass rush because the Bears can’t get to the quarterback, but the cold and precipitation will impact Goff.

The Lions’ best chance of moving the chains is running with Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bears don’t have a good rank against the run, but they’ve been better in that regard since getting some of their linebackers back from injury.

RECAP: If the conditions were perfect, this would be the sort of shootout we saw in San Francisco on Sunday night. Neither defense can stop anything right now, while both offenses have tons of potent play-making talents.

The conditions are not perfect, however, or at least they’re not projected to be. This will be troublesome for Goff, even against a bad defense.

I like the Bears to win and cover this week. The Lions are in shambles right now, and I have to wonder if they’ll want to suit up for a game in frigid weather after being eliminated from the playoffs so recently.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I might bump this selection up to four units. The Bears undoubtedly will still be pissed about how the Lions ran up the score in the Week 2 meeting. The Lions, meanwhile, have undoubtedly packed their suitcases for their impending vacations.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are dealing with the flu right now. The Lions also have a bunch of offensive line injuries, but it’s not like the Bears can take advantage of that. Given that a part of Chicago’s locker room has the flu, I will remove all units from them. Besides, our only angle in this game was motivation, which gave me an uncomfortable feeling even before I looked at the final injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have pounded the Bears up to -4.5. I get it, but I won’t be getting there.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears at -3, -3.5, and -4, but then some pro money came in on the Lions at +4.5. The best line is -4 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

Will the Lions want to play a meaningless game in the cold?

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 52% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Lions have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Dan Campbell is 15-7 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Dan Campbell is 8-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Dan Campbell is 18-5 ATS as an underdog of 4+. ???

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 30 degrees. Light wind.