2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Saints at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons were able to upset the Rams on Monday night, which undoubtedly frustrated the fans because it was a stark reminder of where this team could be with strong coaching. The Falcons were able to defeat Los Angeles with its strong rushing attack and defensive pressure. Bijan Robinson was the main catalyst of the offense, generating 195 rushing yards.

Robinson won’t have as easy of a matchup this week because the Saints are stout against the run. Robinson was limited to 70 rushing yards in the prior meeting, so Kirk Cousins will be asked to do much more in this game.

Obviously, that’s never a good thing. Cousins had a solid performance in New Orleans in the aforementioned prior meeting, but it’s not like the Falcons can rely on that happening again. Cousins is erratic and will be battling a Saints pass defense that has improved during the past month. It would be surprising if he played just as well in the rematch.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Meanwhile, Tyler Shough is expected to improve. Shough was making one of his first starts against the Falcons back in late November. He did not play well, but things have changed since then. Shough has bolstered his level of play each week.

Shough should definitely be better than the 30-of-43, 243-yard, one-interception performance we saw in New Orleans. Shough has established a great connection with Chris Olave and is scrambling more. He’s also protected well, so the Falcons’ pass rush won’t be able to tee off on him like they did against Matthew Stafford and battered offensive line on Monday night.

It would help Shough if he had a solid running game supporting him because the Falcons are weaker to the run than the pass. He didn’t have that in the prior meeting, but perhaps Audric Estime will be able to help this time. Estime ripped off 94 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries against the Titans’ 14th-ranked run defense last week, so that bodes well for this matchup.

RECAP: I always say that finding a game where we get the better team and motivation is the dream when it comes to handicapping. That’s certainly the case in this game.

The Saints are better than the Falcons. They have the superior quarterback at the moment. Shough is eighth in quarterback EPA, while Cousins is 13th. New Orleans’ defense is ranked seventh since the midway point of the season, while Atlanta’s defense is 17th. The Falcons have the better running game, but I believe the Saints are coached much better under Kellen Moore than the Falcons are under the inept Raheem Morris.

Motivation is often difficult to handicap, but this one is easy. The Falcons are coming off a huge upset victory against the Rams. This is a team that has often been flat as a pancake off upset wins, especially on national TV. Morris is still the coach, so I wouldn’t expect any other behavior from the Falcons, especially given that they already beat the Saints.

Oh, and this is also a short week for the Falcons. Bad teams often fare poorly coming off Monday Night Football because they need more preparation time than good teams.

Despite all of this, the Saints are 3.5-point underdogs? Are you kidding me!? I’m considering the Saints as my December NFL Pick of the Month. I’ll make up my mind when I see the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy and I had a long debate about this game even though we both like the Saints. Take a listen to this video if you want to hear it:

SATURDAY NOTES: Unfortunately, this will not be our Pick of the Month because Chris Olave is out. If Rashid Shaheed were still on the Saints, I’d be fine with it, but with Shaheed gone, and Olave sidelined, Tyler Shough won’t have any viable downfield threats. I still like the Saints a bit, but not nearly as much.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake London and Kyle Pitts are active after being questionable. This might be why the sharps bet the Falcons this morning. The best line is +4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Falcons are coming off an upset win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 54% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 11 of the last 16 meetings.

Falcons are 7-27 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 34 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.