2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Cowboys at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: I expected more from the Cowboys last week. Sure, they scored 30 points, but I thought they’d get much more than that against Wasington’s terrible defense. Shockingly, neither CeeDee Lamb nor George Pickens was able to generate much yardage.

That could easily change this week. The Giants have an even worse defense than the Redskins, so Dak Prescott shouldn’t have much trouble torching them. That’s exactly what happened in Week 2 when the Cowboys scored 40 points. Prescott threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns in that contest.

Javonte Williams also ran well in that game, which isn’t a surprise because the Giants have maintained the worst run defense in the NFL. Williams is banged up, but Malik Davis has shown that he can be productive as a replacement.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: In that 40-point Dallas affair, the Giants went toe to toe with the Cowboys, scoring 37 points. And that wasn’t Jaxson Dart doing all the damage, or even Jameis Winston. It was Russell Wilson, who has been atrocious in every other instance this year.

Dart struggled heading into the Raiders game, but he finally showed signs of life. He ran all over the Raiders, all while completing 22-of-30 passes. Granted, the Raiders weren’t trying, but Dart still had an impressive showing.

We’re going to see more of the same from Dart in this game because the Cowboys have an abysmal defense. Dallas allowed Josh Johnson to have a respectable performance last week, and it also surrendered a long touchdown run to Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The Giants will be equipped to do some damage aerially and on the ground in this matchup.

RECAP: It’s not a surprise to see the spread drop from the opener of -5.5 to -4. There’s not much separation between these teams. Yes, the Cowboys’ offense is better than the Giants’ offense, but Dallas’ defense is a disaster. Again, this was a 40-37 affair in Week 2, and that was in Dallas with Wilson under center for the Giants.

I suspect we’ll see another close game. I hesitate to bet the Giants because they are the worse team, and the best unit of the four in this game is Dallas’ offense, but I think this will be a three-point affair, so I’m inclined to side with the sharps and take the points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. I still like the Giants a bit, but not enough to bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching to the Cowboys. The Giants won’t have a bunch of players, including Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson, so Jaxson Dart won’t have any viable receivers. Even worse, the Giants are dealing with the flu, so they could be sluggish in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve heard some rumors that the Cowboys are going to give Joe Milton some reps today. I don’t know how reliable this news is, but it would explain why the sharps have been betting the Giants. I’m going to switch back to the Giants, but won’t be betting them. The best line is +3 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Plenty of money on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 69% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 21 of the last 25 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -5.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Sunny, 34 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.