2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Browns at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We’ve reached the portion of the season where people can say, “No one wants to face the Bengals right now, so every AFC team is lucky that they’re eliminated.” Usually, this is utter nonsense, but I think it has some merit this year because none of the AFC teams are all that great.

The basis behind this statement is that Joe Burrow is playing incredibly well right now. He had one bad game in the second meeting against the Ravens, but has been spectacular otherwise. Burrow will be tested, however, against the Browns, a team that has owned him. Myles Garrett, in particular, has been a terror for Burrow. Garrett needs one sack to break the all-time record, but he may get five sacks in this matchup.

Burrow won’t be able to lean on any sort of rushing attack either. Chase Brown has scored a barrage of touchdowns recently, but his ability to run well is created from the pass, and if Burrow isn’t having the same sort of success this week, then Brown will be limited.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Another reason why the above statement applies this year is that the Bengals are better defensively recently. Their defense isn’t exactly playing well, but it’s been on a below-average level over the past month-and-a-half.

Below average is exactly what the Bengals will need to prevent the Browns from scoring very much, provided that Cleveland won’t have its tight ends. Both David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. are injured. If they’re both out, then the Browns won’t be able to exploit Cincinnati’s biggest weakness. No team has surrendered more production to tight ends than the Bengals, but this obviously won’t be a factor if Njoku and Fannin both sit.

The Browns won’t get much on the ground either. This may surprise a lot of people, but since the midway point of the season, the Bengals are a respectable 17th against the run. Quinshon Judkins may have been able to generate some big plays in this matchup, but he’s not available, so the Browns don’t have a viable rushing attack.

RECAP: I’ve been riding the Bengals for several weeks, but all good things must come to an end. We’re going to be siding with the Browns in this game.

There’s always a chance that Burrow slays his demons and finally overcomes this opponent, but Cleveland’s defense has been a thorn in his side for years. Blocking Garrett has especially been problematic.

I wish I had more faith in Cleveland’s offense to make this a big play. If it’s announced that either Njoku or Fannin will be available, I may end up betting the Browns, but as of right now, this will be a zero-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither David Njoku nor Harold Fannin practiced Wednesday, which is a bad sign for Cleveland’s chances, as is the fact that Carson Schwesinger missed practice as well. We’ll be monitoring this for the rest of the week. I may switch my pick to the Bengals, depending on what the injury status is.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been thinking about this game a lot, and the more I think of it, the more I’m sold that the Bengals are worth a bet. First of all, the Browns won’t have either tight end, or Carson Schwesinger. Second, Andy Iskoe made a great point that the Browns could be flat off their “Super Bowl” win versus the Steelers. And third, my premise was wrong about the Browns having the Bengals’ number. While this is true in Cleveland, the past three times these teams played in Cincinnati, the results have been:

Bengals 24, Browns 6

Bengals 31, Browns 14

Bengals 23, Browns 10

I’m putting three units on Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Bengals pretty aggressively over the past 48 hours. The best line is -9.5 -107 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 59% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 14 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters (Bengals won last 4 meetings).

Kevin Stefanski is 3-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Joe Burrow is 47-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 34 degrees. Light wind.