2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Ravens at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Pissburgh, where the Pissburgh Pirates take on the Baltimore Oroes. Guys, as you know the Colts named me their next starting quarterback, but Mother went to the coach and told him that I’m not in any position to be a quarterback in the NFL because it’s too dangerous. So, I took out an advertisement in the Yellow Pages to be able to talk to a girl because none will approach me now that I’m not a quarterback. And guess what, guys? I got a response! And not only is it a real-life girl, but she’s a princess from a city called Nigeria!

Emmitt: Thanks, Princess. I do not trust royalty since I watch the TV show Game of Thorns. In that game, John Starks get in real trouble because he stolened book from library and he can’t read, then he go in prism and they chop his head off because he not returned book, and then his son Harry becomed faceless men and his real son John Summers get into fight with Blue Guy because Blue Guy want to marry Brianna Starks, and I get a little confusioned after that but it is OK because people say this game end badlynessly.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, can you please not spoil Game of Thorns!? Mother said I can watch it one day when New Daddy says I’m old enough. Am I old enough now, New Daddy!? If not, please don’t tell me what happens!

Jay Cutler: Still too young. And the dragon lady goes nuts, and then the other guy kills someone, and then some guy is exiled to the north.

Kevin Reilly: Stop giving it away, New Daddy! Thankfully New Daddy doesn’t pay attention to specifics, or I’d really be spoiled.

Tollefson: Kevin, speaking of Game of Thorns, I have an idea for a manuscript that I want you to run by the higher-ups. Ready? A young, dashing man approaches a woman at a bar and asks her to come home with him. A very nice request, of course. She says no, because she is a vile tramp. So, the man slips a laced napkin over her face like any normal person would, and then the next thing you see, she’s waking up in his cellar, and she’s forced to cook and clean naked for him. At first she says no, but then when the man threatens to drown her in the lake, she accepts, and eventually she and the man become lovers, and then they each capture other women, and those women become their lovers as well. What do you think?

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, that sounds like it would be rated PG-13, so I wouldn’t be able to see it. But let’s go down to Clarissa Thompkins to see what she has to say. Clarissa, do you think this movie between the two lovers sounds like a good flick, and if so, could you convince Mother to let me go see it and also Game of Thorns?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Thorns. I’ve seen a screener for this movie, and I can tell you that there’s a twist in the middle part of the movie where the man attempts to chloroform a woman, but she turns out to be an undercover detective, and just when it seems as though she’ll arrest him, she falls in love with him and becomes his main wife. Back to you, Thorns.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, I-

Tollefson: Clarissa, you vile woman, how did you possibly know that!? I haven’t revealed my plot to anyone, and there is certainly no screener!

Mina Kimes: Guys, I need to interject here and declare how utterly sexist and racist it is to have such a movie. It’s so repulsive that you’d have a man capturing women to cook and clean naked for him, only to fall in love with him, and you have all of this without a strong female lead who happens to be a female Asian NFL analyst. There is little doubt that if there was a female Asian NFL analyst, she would be the best cooker and cleaner in the entire house, and she would love the man the hardest. I hope that one day I get to be in such an employ, but that is only a dream because everyone is bigoted against me, so I will never be any man’s cooker or cleaner.

Kevin Reilly: Guys, why has no one asked me about my princess yet? I guess we’ll get to it next week.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID EVERYONE HERE NEGLECT TO TALK ABOUT A PRINCESS!? I AM ANGRY ABOUT THIS BECAUSE I AM A PRINCESS, BUT NOT THE PRANCY KIND, BUT THE ONE WHO SHOWS OFF CLEAVAGE ONLINE TO GET A DATE TO A GAME. NO ONE IS MORE OPPRESSED THAN ME BECAUSE I HAD TO DO THAT. NO ONE, THAT IS, EXCEPT FOR POOR MINA KIMES, WHO WILL NEVER KNOW HOW TO COOK AND CLEAN NAKED FOR A KIDNAPPER BECAUSE SHE IS TOTALLY OPPRESSED LIKE ME BECAUSE NO ONE LIKES FEMALE ASIAN NFL ANALYSTS!

Kevin Reilly: I’m still not sure what an Asian is, but yes, we will talk about my princess next time because we’re in the talking stages anyway.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about a “princess,” Kevin, and yes, Kevin, I put princess in quotations, Kevin, because let’s discuss other members of “nobility” that can contact us, Kevin. Let’s begin with “prince,” Kevin. How about “king,” Kevin. Take a gander at “queen,” Kevin. Have a fire-side chat about “duke,” Kevin. What do you think about “duchess,” Kevin? Care to share about “earl,” Kevin? Charge on ahead to “marquess,” Kevin. Ever hear from a “baroness,” Kevin? Is that enough quotation marks for you, Kevin?

Kevin Reilly: CHARLES DAVIS, I WILL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH, AND THEN WHEN I MARRY THE PRINCESS, I WILL LAUGH IN YOUR FACE AND STICK YOUR QUOTATIONS UP YOUR BUTT! We’ll be back right after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s about time. I can’t believe it took the Ravens this long to feed Derrick Henry the ball. It took a Lamar Jackson injury to do so, but Henry was given a complete workload last week. The result was a 200-yard outing in a demolition of the hapless Packers.

It’s unclear if Jackson will play as of this writing, so the Ravens will either have a hobbled or backup quarterback under center. The strategy should be the same. The Steelers are 20th against te run, so Henry figures to have another big performance. I wouldn’t quite expect 200 yards again, but Henry should easily top the century mark.

Henry’s tough running will make things easier for an injured Jackson or Tyler Huntley. The Steelers almost certainly won’t have T.J. Watt available, so they won’t be able to rattle either quarterback. Jackson/Huntley will be able to deploy their tight ends successfully, given that Pittsburgh surrenders the third-most production to tight ends in the NFL.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While Watt is almost certain not to play, we know that DK Metcalf won’t be available because he’ll be serving the second game of his suspension. Without Metcalf, and also Calvin Austin, the Steelers couldn’t do anything offensively last week. They were just 3-of-15 on third down.

Aaron Rodgers will enjoy more time in the pocket this week than he did versus the Browns and their chaotic pass rush, but it may not matter if no one can get open. Metcalf torched the Ravens last time, but there won’t be anyone who can duplicate that in this game. And it’s not like Rodgers can lean on his tight ends effectively either the Ravens thrive at defending the position.

Making matters worse, the Steelers won’t have success running the ball. The Ravens rank No. 1 at defending ground attacks, so Jaylen Warren won’t gain much yardage. Perhaps Kenneth Gainwell can pick up yardage as a receiving back, but that won’t be overly consistent production.

RECAP: The Steelers won’t have their best offensive or defensive players in this crucial matchup. They’ve been able to get by without Watt, albeit against some sketchy opponents, but not having Metcalf available has really stymied the offense. It’s like last year when they didn’t have George Pickens for a stretch.

If the Steelers were battling a soft defense, they could get away without having Metcalf, but the Ravens’ stop unit is ranked ninth in EPA since the midpoint of the season. They are stout against the run, so Pittsburgh will basically have the same offensive production as it did last week.

The difference between the Cleveland game and this one is that the Ravens will actually be able to score, even if Huntley starts. Henry will dominate on the ground, while the tight ends will pick up where Harold Fannin Jr. left off last week when he got hurt.

I like Baltimore to win and cover this game, though the -3.5 line makes things tricky. Many Pittsburgh and Baltimore games are close when Jackson isn’t healthy, so I could see the Steelers keeping this close and losing by three, but I’m still going to be on Baltimore because of the Watt and Metcalf absences.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson practiced in full on Wednesday. This is highly unusual because he has always missed Wednesday’s practice. It could be a sign that he’s healthy not, but it could also be that Baltimore is lying on the injury report again.

SATURDAY NOTES: T.J. Watt is off the injury report. Interestingly enough, the line went up to Ravens -4. Phantom line movement for the sharps to hammer Pittsburgh? Perhaps. We’ll see. With Watt back, I’m less confident in the Ravens, but I still have concerns with Pittsburgh’s ability to score without DK Metcalf.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I can’t say that I’m surprised to see the sharps continue to hammer the Steelers, who are now +3. This was classic phantom line movement when Baltimore went to -4 on Friday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line movement on this game has been insane. The sharps bet the Steelers +4 and +3.5 heavily on Saturday night and Sunday morning, but other pro money came in on the Ravens at -3, -3.5, and -4. The best line is Baltimore -4.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (157,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Steelers have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

John Harbaugh is 17-9 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Mike Tomlin is 67-39 ATS as an underdog.

Steelers are 45-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Aaron Rodgers is 141-105 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 34-27 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 45-29 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 25 degrees. Light wind.