NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LX

Seattle Seahawks (14-3) vs. New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Seahawks by 4.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 21 Analysis: We split our picks, but had a big week because we nailed both quarterbacks going over 650 passing yards at 10/1 odds in the Seahawks-Rams game. We also completed the Matthew Stafford passing prop ladder. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Broncos, 4 units (win): I used this as a hedge for our Seahawks/Rams/Patriots exactas in the Super Bowl, and we were able to get the middle with the Broncos +3.5. That was the best result possible.

Rams, 3 units (loss): The Rams shot themselves in the foot too many times. I’m still trying to figure out why their punt returner tried to field the ball while falling down. That can’t be something he was taught.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 30-53-1 heading into Week 20.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17 and 1-2 in Week 18. Booo!

Public teams went 2-0 in the wild card round, but then went 0-2 in the divisional round and 0-1 in the conference championship games.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahawks -4.5

Everyone is saying how much of a fraud the Patriots are, so Seattle is an easy bet for them.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s an e-mail from a week ago from someone recognizing my 0-6 weekend:



I posted this last week and wrote how this deranged lunatic had to throw politics in there, and yet he failed to correctly identify my politics. This is the sort of person who eats “peanut butter” found in their rear end.

This guy e-mailed me back:



Talk about eighth-grade intellect! “iF yOuR nOt oN mY sIdE tHeN yOuR mAgA!!!” Actually, forget what I said. Eighth grade is too advanced for this imbecile.

And the next response from him:



Call me crazy, but I don’t think Poker Boss has the IQ to agree with me.

Speaking of low IQs, here’s someone saying I don’t have a job because I had the gall to defend porn:



Guys, I had no idea I’ve been unemployed the past 19 years! Wow!

And finally, I reported some news about the Vikings reaching out to the Bengals to trade for Joe Burrow, as you can see here. Some moronic Bengals fans took this to mean something about their team when the story was clearly about the Vikings. Here’s one such example:



Watch how when I prove that Charlie Campbell and I have had the most accurate mock drafts in the world via the link provided, this imbecile transitions to another tactic against me:



I feel like I’m telling this guy that the sun rises in the east, and he’s like “cHeCk yOuRe sOuRcE!” It’s been known for quite some time that Burrow is unhappy with Bengals ownership.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the three crushes I had in highschool, as a follow up to why I decided to not attend my 25th high school reunion.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays and the poop patrol! Tonight, the Seattle Supersonics take on the New England Gaytriots. Guys, I don’t care about this stupid game, especially because the time has finally come! The girlfriend I ordered on the white pages is set to arrive any minute. I’ve never been so excited. Mother said I can’t talk to her because she’ll try to steal my soul, and I won’t be able to eat macaroni and cheese, but time has finally come for me to fly out of my nest. I’m 74 now, so time has finally come for me to spread my wings!

Emmitt: Thanks, Wang. The thing I most excitemented about the super game are the halftime show, which typically occur at the half of the games. The league gonna have a great performanced by none othered than Bugs Bunny. I watch Bugs Bunny ever since I was a little kid and then in the movie Space Jim where Michael Johnson play basketball with Charles Broccoli and Mugsy Booger against the alien, and the guy who winned the game gonna get all the gold metal in the Olympic.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I know what movie you’re talking about, but Mother said it would be too scary for me to watch. You know what? Maybe the first thing I’ll do with my bride-to-be is watch Space Jim. And maybe we’ll invite New Daddy along. New Daddy, what do you think? Do you want to watch Space Jim with me and my future wife?

Jay Cutler: I’d rather drill my eyeballs out of my sockets.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, I know you’re just kidding! We’ll save you a seat if you have some free time from the usual time you spend watching paint dry. What about you, Tolly? Would you like to join us?

Tollefson: Sorry, Kevin, but we have our own movie night plans. My female slaves and I are going to watch a home movie after the game. It’s actually live footage of the female slave who cooked and cleaned the worst this past year. We left her stranded in the woods and will be unleashing a pack of wolves, so we’ll all be tuning in to see if she survives. You know, some of the female slaves cry when they watch these home movies with me, and I find that touching because it shows how much they care that my house is maintained by naked cooks and cleaners.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I don’t know what I’m going to do when I see my future wife naked for the first time. Mother says I’ll turn to stone if I see another woman naked except for her when I give her sponge baths, but I’m beginning to think she wasn’t telling the truth. But I just got word that she’ll be arriving any second. In fact, I’m getting word from down below that she’s coming in now! Ah, my only regret is that Charles Davis isn’t here to see this because I’d love to wipe that smirk off his face when he said that she wouldn’t show up after she asked me to fund her money after her king father was overthrown by radicals in his country. That Charles Davis loser called out sick! What a dweeb! Anyway, let’s go down below. Clarissa Thompkins, do you have my future wife with you, and do you also think Charles Davis is a dweeb?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Dweeb. I have breaking news. I saw the future and know that Russell Wilson will throw a game-losing interception at the goal line in the final seconds. I know this because my fortune teller told me so after she saw it in her crystal ball. And yes, Dweeb, your bride-to-be is taking the elevator up right now. Be prepared to receive her in 3… 2… 1… Back to you, Dweeb!

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, my name is not Dweeb, but I’m oh so excited, and wow, here she is! She got off the elevator, and she is beautiful! Hello, future bride! I’m usually not allowed to talk to women, but I’m spreading my wings and fleeing the nest! Mother can’t control me anymore! But can you please make macaroni and cheese for dinner!?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Hi, Kevin, I can definitely make you macaroni and cheese, Kevin! Or anything else, including spaghetti, Kevin!

Kevin Reilly: I’m afraid that spaghetti irritates my tummy, or at least that’s what Mother said. She said spaghetti is too dangerous for me. But how was your flight? How was your sick mother? Did she buy the medicine with the funds I sent?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Yes, thanks for asking, Kevin! She was able to buy red medicine from the old woman in the cave, Kevin. She also bought the blue medicine from the old woman in the cave, Kevin!

Kevin Reilly: OK, good! I had to refrain from buying a 1-of-1 limited edition Nick Foles bobblehead to send the money to you. So, about you making that mac-and-cheese…

Mina Kimes: I’m sorry to interrupt, but this is an outrage. Kevin, you are a grown man. You said you’re 74. Why don’t you make your own macaroni and cheese? The only man who shouldn’t be making his own macaroni and cheese is Geno Smith, and that’s because he’s a top-one quarterback – much better than Sam Darnold! I don’t even know how the Seahawks are going to compete with Sam Darnold. If they had Geno Smith, they’d be going to the Super Game! But I digress. Kevin, you’re a man, and only men should be making macaroni and cheese. Women do too many important things to make men dinner, like nap for three hours per day. And we also have super-important jobs like NFL analyst, where we come up with gems like telling you clueless peons that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback who is much better than Sam Darnold. With all of this wisdom, how could I possibly have the time to make any man macaroni and cheese!?

Kevin Reilly: Mina, it sounds like you’re not wife material. Especially not like my future wife!

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT MINA KIMES IS NOT WIFE MATERIAL!? SHE IS THE BEST WIFE MATERIAL BECAUSE SHE WILL WORK HER JOB WHERE SHE SAYS BRILLIANT THINGS LIKE GENO SMITH IS A TOP-ONE QUARTERBACK, AND GENO SMITH IS BETTER THAN SAM DARNOLD, AND YOU CAN THROW OVER THE TOP ON QUARTERS COVERAGE. THIS WOMAN IS A GENIUS WHO IS FAR TOO SMART TO MAKE MACARONI AND CHEESE! THIS IS SUCH AN OUTRAGE! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! I FEEL SO OPPRESSED. IF I WEREN’T SO OPPRESSED, PEOPLE WOULD BE ASKING ME TO MAKE MACARONI AND CHEESE FOR THEM, BUT INSTEAD I NEED TO SHOW MY GIRL POWER BY FLASHING MY CLEAVAGE ONLINE SO SOMEONE WILL DATE ME, AND I ONLY HAVE TO DO THIS BECAUSE MEN OPPRESS WOMEN SO MUCH!

Kevin Reilly: I’m so glad that I don’t have to spend any more time with these bimbos. Future wife, can you see how annoying these female analysts are?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Kevin, we can make a list of all the annoying female analysts in this booth, Kevin. Let’s begin with Sarah Spain, Kevin. You also mentioned Mina Kimes, Kevin. And then there’s Kevin, Kevin. Because he’s an annoying female analyst, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Yeah! Wait, wha?

Kevin’s Future Wife: Kevin, let’s make a list of all the times you’ve gaffed even worse than Mina Kimes called Geno Smith a top-one quarterback, Kevin. Let’s begin with you calling the Seahawks the “Supersonics,” Kevin. Then you called Maurice Jones-Drew, Maurice Drew-Jones, Kevin. How about not knowing a single thing about any team except for your Philadelphia Eagles, Kevin, and let’s discuss “your” Philadelphia Eagles, Kevin, because they’re not actually your Philadelphia Eagles, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Wait, why do you sound like Charles Davis? And are you going to make me macaroni and cheese or not?

Tollefson: Uhh, Kevin, I think your wife is actually Charles Davis.

Kevin Reilly: WHAT!?

Charles Davis: That’s right, Kevin, it’s me, Charles Davis, Kevin, let me take off my wig because it’s so itchy, Kevin, and yes, Kevin, I’ve catfished you, Kevin, because you kind of deserved it, Kevin, and while we’re on the subject of catfish, Kevin, let’s talk about other fish in the sea, Kevin, including tuna, Kevin. How about salmon, Kevin? What do you think about cod, Kevin? Let’s transition to trout, Kevin. Give your opinion on flounder, Kevin. Three cheers for sardines, Kevin. Any thoughts on haddock, Kevin? What about mackerel, Kevin? But let’s go back to catfish, Kevin, because you’ve been catfished, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: Wait, so is macaroni and cheese for dinner off the table? I- I- I AM GOING TO DESTROY YOU IF IT’S THE LAST THING I DO, CHARLES DAVIS! BUT FIRST I HAVE TO GO HOME AND SAY SORRY TO MOTHER AND TELL HER I’M NOT FLYING AWAY FROM THE NEST! We’ll be back right after this!



PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to post our Super Bowl LX pick on the Tuesday prior to the game. For now, we’re going to be looking at some player props. Most of our player props will be live bets, but we’ll have some prior to the game, including…

Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Combined Passing Yards: We hit 500+ +102 and 650+ +1000 in the NFC Championsip, and we’ll be playing this again. Drake Maye didn’t throw much in the AFC Championship game because of the wintry blizzard conditions. Matthew Stafford threw all over the Seahawks, so Maye should be able to do the same. Luckily, we don’t have to go as high as 500+ and 650+ this time. Instead, we’re going with:

Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Combined 450+ Passing Yards -119 (1.5 Units) at DraftKings
Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Combined 600+ Passing Yards +830 (1 Unit) at DraftKings

You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Kenneth Walker Rushing Yards: Kenneth Walker’s rushing yardage total is too high. The Patriots have a stout run defense with Milton Williams healthy and Robert Spillane patrolling the middle of the field. No running back has eclipsed 37 rushing yards against the Patriots in the playoffs thus far. Here’s what we’re going with:

Kenneth Walker under 74.5 rushing yards -114 (1 Unit) at FanDuel

You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards: The Seahawks have surrendered tons of production all season, but we haven’t been able to take advantage in the playoffs yet. We bet Jake Tonges in the second half when he had 59 receiving yards in the opening half alone, but he got hurt right away. Colby Parkinson had 62 receiving yards in the NFC Championship, but the Rams have a million tight ends, so I didn’t know which to bet. Now, we know to bet Hunter Henry. I’ll be looking to ladder Henry in the second half, but for now, we can just bet his raw yardage because that should hit no matter what (barring another injury, of course). Here’s what we’re going with:

Hunter Henry over 36.5 rushing yards -117 (1 Unit) at BetRivers

You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link. NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: All I saw on social media following the Patriots’ win over the Broncos in the AFC Championship was everyone calling them a fraud. Cousin Sal posted a tweet that had a police siren and the words, “Fraud Alert!” This was in response to New England’s meager 10-point output versus Denver’s paper tiger defense.

The Patriots haven’t had great offensive success in their playoff run. Their offense has generated 16, 21, and 10 points in their three games, and Drake Maye has taken five sacks in each contest. The Patriots were so conservative in the AFC Championship that they had Maye throw just one pass in the fourth quarter, albeit in a crazy snowstorm. This was actually smart because it was clear that the Broncos weren’t capable of putting up any points in those elements, but it was still an ugly showing.

Now, to be fair, Maye has battled two elite defenses and one above-average stop unit in harsh elements. The Broncos were a paper-tiger defense, but fierce winds and thick snow made conditions very difficult for Maye, who had a tall task against the Chargers and Texans, who were both ranked in the top four of defensive EPA in the second half of the season. Maye took on extremely tough defenses and is now battle tested. So, that’s the good news. The bad news for Maye is that he’s taking another step up in class and battling the league’s No. 1 EPA defense. The Seahawks just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw all over them, but they have the league’s No. 2 run defense and were able to generate the second-most pressure in the NFL this season. That’s not good for a young quarterback who has taken five sacks in every game and has been prone to fumbling.

And make no mistake, Maye will have to do everything himself. Rhamondre Stevenson will find no running room against Seattle’s stout defense, so it’ll be up to Maye to pick up where Stafford left off. Maye will at least be able to utilize his legs and attack the Seahawks in the one area in which their defense falters, which is their inability to cover tight ends. Jake Tonges had 59 receiving yards in one half in the divisional round, while Colby Parkinson logged 62 receiving yards despite sharing targets with two other tight ends. Hunter Henry is in for a big night.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Another reason why the Patriots aren’t a fraud is because of their defense. They don’t have the top-rated stop unit in the NFL like the Seahawks, but they rank in the top 10, and they’ve been better ever since Milton Williams and Christian Gonzalez returned from injury. Williams was sorely missed down the stretch of the regular season, given that New England’s defense is fundamentally different with him.

The Seahawks have a strong interior offensive line, thanks to Grey Zabel’s presence, so having Williams available is extremely important in this matchup. The Patriots have a stout run defense with Williams, so I wouldn’t expect Kenneth Walker to run all over New England. Walker had some great games against the 49ers and Rams, but both teams are weaker to the run than the Patriots with Williams on the field.

Unless Walker runs better than expected, it’ll be up to Sam Darnold to move the chains. This would have been a death sentence for the team in the past, particularly against an opponent that can get after the quarterback. The Patriots didn’t really do so all that well at the end of the regular season, but Williams’ presence has bolstered the pass rush as well.

Darnold has really struggled against fierce pass rushes earlier in his career, particularly pressure up the middle. However, Darnold has been a new quarterback this year. He finally stopped seeing ghosts against the Rams in the NFC Championship, so he could continue his high level of play against the Patriots. It’s worth noting that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a tough matchup versus Gonzalez, but the Patriots, like the Seahawks, struggle against tight ends, so perhaps A.J. Barner will enjoy a big performance, which is something we’ve seen a few times this year.

RECAP: You’d think that with every Joe Schmoe calling the Patriots a fraud, and the spread increasing from the advance spread from -3.5 to -4.5, you’d have some sharp movement on the underdog. However, we haven’t seen that yet. This line has remained steady at -4.5. It seems as though the sportsbooks don’t want to move this line up to -5 and beyond because they’re afraid that the pros will come in on the Patriots, but there haven’t been any such wagers placed yet. Perhaps that will come later in the week.

I considered being on the Patriots. We get the slightest bit of line value – I made this spread Seattle -4 – so the Patriots are slightly appealing from that perspective. However, four isn’t even a tier-two key number anymore, so it’s not like we’re getting a six if this line had, say, moved from -5.5 to -6.5. That would mean a lot more because six is a tier-two key number along with seven.

The Patriots are also appealing as an underdog because this is a battle between two defensive coaches. Both teams are in the top 10 of defensive EPA in the second half of the season, with New England improving as a result of Williams being healthy. Lower-scoring games tend to go toward the underdog covering the spread as long as the line is above three, which is obviously the case in this situation.

However, given that my projected line was Seattle -4, the three most likely results, if that spread is correct, is Seattle by three, seven, and six, in that order. I wondered what was more likely to happen: Seattle winning by three, or Seattle winning by seven or six (i.e. above 4.5). And after thinking about it, I came to the conclusion that I believe it’s more likely that the Seahawks will win by more than 4.5.

First of all, the Seahawks, as a whole, are more battle tested. They played in the better conference, and specifically, in the best division. Their strength of schedule, as a result, was .498, whereas New England’s was .391. We were all caught off guard when the Eagles destroyed the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year. It was clear in that game that Philadelphia was far superior, and in hindsight, it should have been obvious beforehand because the Eagles were from the far better conference. Sure, the AFC had the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, but all three of those teams developed great records by beating up on dreck from their conference, whereas Philadelphia had to go through a tough gauntlet to obtain the No. 2 seed and reach the Super Bowl. The NFC continued to be the superior conference this season, despite the lackluster NFC South division.

Second, the Patriots managed to cruise through the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their strength of schedule was a measly .391. The Broncos, at .422, were the only other team with a strength of schedule easier than .430. New England even avoided the two best teams in the AFC in the playoffs, dodging the Bills and Jaguars due to its playoff draw and officiating incompetence.

The Patriots aren’t even the second-best team in their conference, and yet they’re expected to keep this game close against the best team from the other, superior conference. That just doesn’t sound like it’ll happen. Even New England’s improved defense is in question. Since getting outscored by the Bills, 35-10, to close out the loss to Buffalo in the second meeting, the Patriots have gone against Tyler Huntley for a half of football, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, a miserable Chargers offensive line, a Nico Collins-less C.J. Stroud, and Jarrett Stidham in a blizzard. These were not quality results for the defense. I believe in Mike Vrabel to coach his team up in this sort of spot, but his team really isn’t proven.

My pick for this game is Seattle, and it’ll be in the range of 2-3 units. I’m not overly confident in this selection, but I think the Seahawks are the right side and will win by about a touchdown.

MORE PROPS: There’s a triple crown category where you can predict the top passer, receiver, and rusher. There are a couple that stand out, namely Drake Maye/Hunter Henry/Drake Maye. We know the Seahawks are poor against tight ends, while both teams thrive against the run, so Drake Maye could be the leading rusher. This is available at 100/1 at FanDuel, but you can parlay all three results (Maye most passing, Maye most rushing, Henry most receiving) for 110/1. Another one I like is Sam Darnold/Hunter Henry/Drake Maye for 225/1, but you can parlay the three results together for 248/1. I’ll also be playing one that has a much better chance of hitting, which is Drake Maye/Hunter Henry/Kenneth Walker for +1714. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

On Friday’s livestream, we discussed an extreme long shot who has a legitimate chance to score a touchdown. That would be Jack Westover, the Patriots’ third tight end/fullback. He plays half the snaps and runs 6-10 routes per game. The Patriots will have two weeks to prepare for this game, so they’ll plan to target someone unexpected in the end zone. Westover, at 40/1, is priced alongside guys who don’t even play. You can get 40/1 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is still holding steady at 4.5. I think there’s a chance this line will drop to -4 at some point.

Check out this list. Since 2000, here are how the superior quarterbacks have fared in every Super Bowl:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)
2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS
2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS
2020 – Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2021 – (Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow considered even)
2022 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: Win SU, Win ATS
2023 – Patrick Mahomes over Brock Purdy: Win SU, Win ATS
2024 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: Loss SU, Loss ATS

In short, the superior quarterbacks are 9-12 straight up and 7-14 against the spread. I hate trends and will never base one of my picks on one, but it goes to show that you can’t base your selection on picking the better quarterback. I believe that to be Drake Maye in this instance.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are only two players of note on the injury report: Harold Landry and Robert Spillane. Both are questionable, but both had a limited practice on Friday, so they should be good to go. Much was made about Nick Emmanwori’s ankle and Drake Maye’s shoulder, but neither has an injury designation.

This line is still -4.5. I’m still waiting on a -4, which could come if the sharps jump on the Patriots. The sharps have not taken a side yet, however.

I’ll be adding some player props later in the day, including some exact score predictions, based on our guests’ projections on the live stream. In the meantime, check out this Super Bowl LX Retrospective my developer put together.

EVEN MORE PROPS: We’re going to do our old trick of betting both defensive touchdowns and parlaying them, but we’re going to toss in special teams as well. The best odds are on DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

I don’t love any MVP bets, but I like Kenneth Walker a bit. The Seahawks love feeding Walker inside the 10-yard line, so if he scores a couple of touchdowns, he could easily win MVP. You can get Walker at +850, but you can bet Walker to win MVP and score an anytime touchdown at FanDuel at +900. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

This one is from Evan: We’re going to bet Sam Darnold over 2.5 rushing attempts. Here are Darnold’s rushing attempts over the past seven games: 3, 0, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3. He failed to reach three just once, and that was in the blowout win over the 49ers. Unless this is another blowout, Darnold should rush three or more times, and remember, a kneel-down counts as a rush. The best number is over 2.5 rushing attempts +112 at FanDuel.

I’m placing small bets (0.1 units) on all the predicted scores from every panelist we’ve had on our show this week. The exception is my predicted score because BetMGM has a 10-percent boost up to $20. BetMGM, by the way, has the best odds for exact scores, and it’s not even close. Here’s what we’re going with:

Me: Seahawks 24, Patriots 17 100/1 BetMGM (0.2 Units)
Nuggets: Patriots 24, Seahawks 20 175/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Butters: Patriots 16, Seahawks 13 200/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Andy: Patriots 27, Seahawks 24 100/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Evan: Patriots 23, Seahawks 20 100/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Kenny: Patriots 27, Seahawks 19 250/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Slew: Seahawks 23 Patriots 20 80/1 BetMGM (0.1 Units)
Quacky: TBA (0.1 Units)

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Robert Spillane and Harold Landry are active, so there are no injuries for either team heading into this game, which is nice to see. What’s not nice to see is that this spread hasn’t moved at all. I thought we might see some movement from the sharps to bring this line down to +4, but that hasn’t been the case. In fact, there hasn’t been any sharp action on this game, so I guess the pro think this line is appropriately priced, or that there’s no real edge for either team. There’s one rogue Seattle -4 out there priced at -117 at Bookmaker, but I’d rather bet the -4.5 -105 available at BetMGM.