2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Chiefs at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Geno Smith is not going to be playing in this game, in all likelihood. We know that the Raiders were willing to sit players who wanted to beat the Giants, including their best defender, but the Smith absence will be injury-related.

Instead, we’ll get Kenny Pickett for another start. Pickett might have a chance against a subpar Chiefs defense if he had a blocking unit in front of him, or viable receivers at his disposal, but he doesn’t have that entering this game. The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, thanks to Kolton Miller’s continued absence, and Brock Bowers has been placed on injured reserve.

Ashton Jeanty is the lone remaining talented player on the Raiders’ offense, but he doesn’t stand a chance. Not only does he not get any blocking, but he’ll also be going up against a pretty solid Chiefs run defense.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs don’t exactly have a quality quarterback for this matchup either, and they also lack solid blocking as a result of many injuries up front. They’re down their top three tackles.

This would ordinarily be a huge problem against the Raiders because of Maxx Crosby’s presence, but Crosby has been shut down because he wanted to actually win a game. The nerve! With no pass rush on the opposite side, perhaps Chris Oladokun will have a chance to get the ball to some of his play-makers, including Travis Kelce, who could be playing his final game.

The Chiefs won’t be able to run very well on the Raiders, at least on paper. Las Vegas’ ground defense has been fine all year, but that wasn’t the case last week. Crosby, in addition to being the Raiders’ top pass rusher, was also their best run defender. With Crosby being unavailable, the Chiefs’ lackluster rushing attack might be able to get something on the ground.

RECAP: I would normally laugh at such a ridiculous spread and tell you to take the underdog. How in the world can an Oladokun-led Chiefs team be favored by nearly a touchdown? In nearly every scenario, they shouldn’t be. Nearly every scenario – except this one.

The Raiders have decided to lose on purpose. This was clear when they sat Crosby because he said he wanted to win. The Raiders didn’t want him anywhere near the field because they want the No. 1 pick in the draft, which they still need to lose to guarantee.

Given that the Raiders want to lose, we should be betting the Chiefs, even if they are quarterbacked by Oladokun. Last week, a struggling Giants team blew out the Raiders on the road, and I believe the Chiefs could do the same thing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Geno Smith didn’t practice Wednesday. If Mina Kimes were handicapping this game, she’d suddenly give the Raiders no shot. How can they possibly win without their top-10 quarterback!?

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith is out, as is the Raiders’ best remaining offensive lineman, Dylan Parham. But that’s nothing compared to the Chiefs, who won’t have Trey Smith on top of their three missing tackles. Xavier Worthy will also be out, so the Chiefs won’t have any receivers remaining. Oh, and the Chiefs are also dealing with the flu! I’m removing all units from Kansas City.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is betting the Raiders. Why, though? I get the Chiefs not being worthy of being a four-point favorite, but the Raiders are losing on purpose.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trey Smith won’t play in this game, so both teams will have horrific offensive lines. The sharps are on the Raiders. The best line is -3.5 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Raiders are losing on purpose.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 56% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 19 of the last 22 meetings.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 35.5 .

Weather: Dome.