2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Panthers at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 17 Analysis: We had our best week of the year. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Broncos, 3 units (loss): Our best week of the year began with a loss, but we made up for it with Bo Nix rushing props. Still, it was an embarrassing performance by Denver. This Broncos team is a paper tiger.

Bengals, 5 units (win): One of the easiest wins we had this year.

Saints, 3 units (win): We needed a comeback and a defensive touchdown in this one, so we were a bit lucky to cover. However, the Titans were able to score early on what the announcers called “magical acts,” so I don’t think we were that lucky.

Jaguars, 5 units (win): A front-door field goal helped us, but there was so much BS in this game favoring the Colts.

Patriots, 5 units (win): An even easier win than the Bengals. The Patriots could have scored 70 if they kept their foot on the gas.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers probably never would have imagined fighting for their playoff lives against the Panthers in Week 18 back when they were 6-2, but here we are. The Buccaneers have gone 1-7 since their hot start, winning only against the Cardinals by three in the process. It’s been an epic collapse that could be completed in this game.

Baker Mayfield posted pretty stats in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, but those were very misleading numbers. Mayfield was horrible in the game. He has an easy matchup this week, but it’s not like he didn’t enjoy that luxury at Miami. The Dolphins have struggled to defend the pass all year as a result of their pedestrian pass rush, yet Mayfield couldn’t even post more than 17 points on a Miami defense that surrendered 45 points to the Bengals the prior week.

Something Mayfield couldn’t do last week was lean on Bucky Irving because the Dolphins maintain a top-10 run defense. The Panthers don’t play the rush nearly as well, ranking 22nd in that regard. Irving figures to be far more productive this week.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Mayfield’s poor play is just part of the equation regarding Tampa Bay’s futility over its previous eight games. The defense has been atrocious, ranking an embarrassing 30th. A unit with Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Jamel Dean should never be ranked 30th, but here we are.

The Buccaneers used to count on their stout run defense, but they haven’t been able to put the clamps on opposing ground attacks this year. The issue is Vea’s health. Vea has an ailing back that has prevented him from reaching his full potential. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard figure to run well on the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay also has a very lackluster pass rush. Bryce Young saw tons of pressure last week versus Seattle’s elite defense. There will be a stark difference in this matchup.

RECAP: I had dreams of fading the Buccaneers as more of a field goal. Alas, this spread is below a field goal, yet it’s still too high. The Buccaneers are a complete mess. Mayfield isn’t healthy, while the defense can’t stop anyone, even Quinn Ewers. The clueless Todd Bowles has no answers, but it’s OK because Bruce Arians aimed to assemble the most diverse coaching staff in the NFL. We can safely call Bowles the Mina Kimes of coaching hires.

There’s a chance the Buccaneers could ride Irving to victory, especially if Young has some bad moments. However, Young has a very easy matchup and should have one of his good games before being embarrassed in the opening round of the playoffs.

Given the way these teams are trending, I don’t think the Buccaneers should be favored at home because they have zero home-field advantage – check the trends below to see why – so I will be on the Panthers to open Week 18.

Our Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs returned to a limited practice on Wednesday, which is obviously a good sign. Conversely, it’s not great to see that Baker Mayfield was limited on Tuesday. He’s certainly not 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers will have Tristan Wirfs back from injury, so they won’t be missing three offensive linemen like they were last week. I think the Panthers are worth a small bet, but wagering live on the team that falls behind could be the better move.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are split on this game, with one group liking the Panthers at +3, and the other liking the Buccaneers at -2.5. I still plan on betting against the team that scores the first touchdown. The best line is +3 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Panthers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The public is backing the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (160,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Buccaneers have won 12 the last 15 meetings.

Road Team is 151-105 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 46-81 ATS at home in the previous 126 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.