2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Titans at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars had some unlucky bounces in the Colts game, and they were apparently dealing with the flu. This was not apparent on the injury report, but Liam Coen mentioned it during the post-game press conference. Perhaps that had something to do with things not exactly going Jacksonville’s way.

The Jaguars should have better luck and success in this contest. They’re going against a Titans defense that can’t stop the pass at all. Tyler Shough just threw for 333 yards against Tennessee, all while completing 22-of-27 passes. If Shough could have a dominant performance like that, imagine what Trevor Lawrence will do with no pass rushers in his face.

The Titans are at least better against the run than the pass. Travis Etienne won’t do much as a runner, but Jacksonville will once again be able to effectively utilize him as a receiver out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Shough wasn’t the only quarterback who played well in last week’s thriller in Tennessee. Cam Ward was spectacular as well, albeit for a different reason. Ward made some ridiculous, magical plays, which I’ve dubbed as “magical,” only because the announcers were calling them “magical acts” during the broadcast.

I would not expect Ward to continue those magical acts in this game. In fact, we could see the opposite. Ward holds on to the ball longer than any other usual starter in the NFL. The Jaguars have a terrific pass rush, so that obviously bodes poorly for the No. 1 overall pick. Ward scored just three points in the previous matchup as a result, as he threw for a meager 141 yards on 38 pass attempts.

Like the Jaguars, the Titans will struggle to move the chains on the ground. The Jaguars boast a top-five run defense, so Tony Pollard won’t find any running room. Ward will have to do everything on his own, which won’t end well.

RECAP: The Jaguars are favored by about 13, which is probably the right line. We just saw the 49ers beat the Titans at home by 13 three weeks ago, and I would say that the Jaguars are a bit better than the 49ers. Both teams have great offenses, but Jacksonville is definitely better defensively. So, the Jaguars should be able to win by about 13 or possibly more.

What would worry me about betting the Jaguars is that they may not take Tennessee seriously. The Jaguars clobbered the Titans on the road several weeks ago, so they may think they’ll have an easy time in this game, whereas the Titans have gotten a bit better down the stretch. The Jaguars should still be able to win, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they allowed the Titans to hang around for a while.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still worry a bit about the Jaguars taking the Titans seriously. It would be shocking if they lost, but I think this game could be decided by single digits.

SATURDAY NOTES: No changes heading into the weekend. Still a very slight lean on the Titans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which isn’t a surprise. The best line is a standard +13.5 -110 at BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Jaguars just destroyed the Titans recently, so they may not take them seriously.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Jaguars -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 64% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Jaguars have won 6 of last 7 meetings.

Jaguars are 19-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Jaguars are 11-18 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Jaguars are 6-11 ATS as favorites of -7 or more coming off a loss.

Opening Line: Jaguars -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.