2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Colts at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for one of the ladders we hit:

This is what we, in the industry, like to call “egg on the face.”

Meanwhile, we had an eventful week. Benjamin Allbright, a failed reporter who has never gotten a single report correct, went on an unhinged rant about this Web site. Allbright didn’t even allow me to respond because he preemptively blocked me like some 12-year-old girl, but I was able to enrage his dumb followers who aren’t aware of how horrible of a reporter he is. Here’s an example:

I’ll have much more on this in the coming weeks, but this is an example of Benjamin Allbright being a failed reporter. He says our mock drafts are inaccurate, but Fantasy Pros has us having the most accurate mock drafts in the world.

This is a sad case of Benjamin Allbright being so dumb and so bad at his job that he assumes that everyone else is just as dumb and as bad at their job as he is. It’s very sad, and maybe some day he’ll get a report correct, but that’s unlikely to happen because no one is as bad at their job as Benjamin Allbright.

Benjamin Allbright’s post got the attention of someone named IncarceratedBlob, whom I had never heard of before he messaged me. Apparently, he has a big following, probably because he pays for Twitter subscribers. I checked out his posts, and there’s nothing remarkable about him. I guess you could say he’s the Benjamin Allbright of X posting. Here’s one of the exchanges we had:

See what I mean? This guy is so stupid that he assumes everyone is just as stupid as he is, and he can’t fathom how we’d have so much success in our industry. It’s quite disturbing, but we’ll have more on this in the coming weeks!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Philip Rivers can go back to high school. He started some games for the Colts, but never won. He came close last week, but only because of some special teams nonsense and weird Jacksonville turnovers in the red zone. Riley Leonard will take over as the starter this week.

Throwing Leonard to the wolves is an interesting move. I guess the Colts will find out something about him if he can somehow play well against one of the top defenses in the NFL. My guess for what will happen is that Houston’s defense will tear him apart. Leonard can move around a bit, so he might be able to scramble away from pressure on occasion, but the Texans’ defense will devour him.

The Colts will obviously try to take the ball out of Leonard’s hands by feeding Jonathan Taylor. This won’t work so well because, just like Indianapolis’ previous opponents, the Texans will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage than they would have if Daniel Jones were still under center. Besides, the Texans are fourth against the run. Taylor won’t be able to do much against them.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans will be hoping that they can once again get the C.J. Stroud that they saw on the opening two drives of the Chargers game. Stroud launched two deep touchdowns to give the Texans a 14-0 lead, but did nothing after that.

Which Stroud will the Texans get this week? Well, we know that Stroud will be battling a far worse defense this week than what he saw this past Saturday. The Chargers were No. 2 in defensive EPA heading into that game. The Colts are 23rd. They’ve had issues in their secondary, though Sauce Gardner’s return to action helps that. Still, there are deficiencies to exploit, which Trevor Lawrence did last week until he reached the red zone and made some mistakes.

The Texans should be able to run on the Colts as well. Woody Marks gives them potential for explosive plays out of the backfield, and Indianapolis’ rush defense is substantially weaker with DeForest Buckner injured.

RECAP: Leonard is an ease fade against Houston’s defense. The last time a backup quarterback went up against the Texans, Jacoby Brissett got blown out in a 40-20 loss in which Houston led 17-0 and allowed all of Brissett’s stats in garbage time. Backup quarterbacks like Brissett are just not equipped to deal with an elite defense like Houston’s, and Brissett is a far better and more experienced quarterback than Leonard.

There might be some worry about backing the Texans at such a high number because their offense is not explosive, but I don’t think this spread is high enough. I made this line -13.5, and I have no concerns about Houston scoring against an Indianapolis defense that has been dreadful during the past month. Oh, and the Texans will be fighting hard to potentially win the division, so it’s not like we have to worry about the sort of emotional letdown that we saw versus the Raiders two weeks ago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner was placed on injured reserve, while Sauce Gardner’s week got off to a bad start with a DNP on Wednesday. It looks like we’re going to see the Colts continue to have severe defensive issues.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans were missing both tackles last week, but it looks like both could be back. At the very least, Aireontae Ersery will be available. The Texans should have an easy time dispatching the Colts, who won’t have Sauce Gardner in addition to DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, this sucks. I submitted the Texans as a pick for my betting contests (Circa, Supercontests), and it was just announced that Nico Collins is a healthy scratch. I can’t bet the Texans if they’re going to sit their best player because they are not taking this game seriously. I’m dropping all of my units. The sharps bet the Colts this morning. The best line is -9.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Texans can win the division. The Colts were just eliminated.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Texans -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 58% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Colts have won 32 of the 46 meetings, excluding a 2022 tie.

Opening Line: Texans -10.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.