2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Seahawks at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If you listen to all the talking heads on TV, you’ll think that this iteration of the 49ers has an offensive attack as lethal as the Greatest Show on Turf. After all, it sounds overly impressive to say that the 49ers didn’t punt in December prior to the Chicago game in which they posted 42 points despite missing George Kittle and Trent Williams.

The 49ers have great talent on their roster and are coached incredibly well by Kyle Shanahan – offensively, that is – but it must be noted that the 49ers have battled some very sketchy defenses recently. They vanquished the Bears, Colts, and Titans in their previous three games, and none of those teams have a pass rush. Brock Purdy has had all the time in the world, while Christian McCaffrey has been able to run through wide-open lanes.

The Seahawks won’t be as accommodating. They have the most pressures in the NFL, and they also boast a top-three run defense. McCaffrey won’t find much running room, while Purdy will have defenders hounding him, especially if Williams can’t play. Having Kittle will be crucial because Seattle’s only defensive weakness is against tight ends.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Speaking of teams that have no pass rush, the 49ers can’t get to the quarterback whatsoever. It was very telling a few weeks ago when they were battling the Titans. Cam Ward holds the ball longer than any quarterback in the NFL, yet San Francisco couldn’t sack him on a single occasion.

This has to be music to Sam Darnold’s ears. Every quarterback performs worse when under pressure, but Darnold takes things to another level. When pressured as opposed to being kept clean, Darnold’s completion percentage falls from 74.4 to 50.4, and his YPA drops from 9.4 to 6.5. Darnold folds like a cheap suit while under pressure, but he won’t have to worry about that in this game. He’ll have all the time he needs to locate Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

The 49ers will at least be able to limit Seattle’s rushing attack a bit. They’re not great against the run, ranking 18th in that regard, but they’re at least not completely inept.

RECAP: The 49ers beat the Seahawks in the opener because they were able to apply heavy pressure on Darnold via Nick Bosa and other talented defensive linemen. Those players are long gone due to injuries. San Francisco’s defense is a mere shell of itself, so the Seahawks shouldn’t have an issue scoring.

But the 49ers will be able to match them point for point, right? I imagine many think so, but I don’t. The 49ers have had the luxury of battling some of the worst defenses in the NFL in recent weeks. This, however, is a major step up in class. The Seahawks are ranked in first defense, so it would be shocking if we saw Purdy put together another tremendous performance.

Shanahan is a master schemer, and the 49ers often thrive when battling an opponent with a glaring weakness, but Shanahan won’t be able to find any chinks in the armor of Seattle’s defense. The lone exception is Seattle’s weakness to tight ends, but Kittle is not completely healthy. So, it remains to be seen if the 49ers can take full advantage of that, and it may not be enough anyway.

I like the Seahawks despite the fact that they’re road favorites. They opened as underdogs, so it’s telling that they are now expected to win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams has not practiced yet this week. The 49ers didn’t need him against Chicago’s lackluster pass rush, but if he can’t go, he’ll sorely be missed against the Seahawks and their excellent pass rush.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trent Williams has not been ruled out yet. He didn’t practice a single time all week, but he’s still listed as questionable along with George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Kittle will play, while Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall will not. No Williams against Seattle’s defense is tough, so I can understand why the sharps would be on Seattle. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Seahawks -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Decent action coming in on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 72% (165,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: 49ers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

49ers are 47-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989. ???

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 53 degrees. Light wind.