2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Cardinals at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Sunday Parties, where I call out parents for having birthday parties for their kids on football Sundays.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s unusual to see the Rams struggle offensively, but that’s exactly what happened Monday night. Matthew Stafford took three sacks and threw a trio of interceptions in a surprising loss to Atlanta.

There was reason for this beyond the Falcons having an underrated defense. The Rams were missing three starting offensive linemen, including both tackles and their best interior blocker. There’s a decent chance that two could be back for this game, giving Stafford more than enough time needed to dissect an inept Arizona defense that can’t stop anyone. The Cardinals have so many injuries on this side of the ball that stopping anyone has become impossible.

Stafford may not have to do much anyway. The Rams have two solid backs, and they have a great matchup against the Cardinals’ front seven, which is in the bottom five of run defense since the midway point of the season.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Rams’ injuries extend beyond just their defense. They’re also missing four offensive linemen: two tackles and two guards. While the replacement guards haven’t been that bad, the backup tackle situation will be a nightmare against the Rams and their talented edge rush, which features Jared Verse.

Jacoby Brissett won’t have much time in the pocket, and he doesn’t have an amazing matchup with Trey McBride against a Rams defense that is solid at defending tight ends. The Cardinals also won’t be able to run the ball because they haven’t been able to do so since losing both James Conner and Trey Benson, and having a one-dimensional offense against one of the best defenses in the NFL is extremely problematic.

RECAP: I faded the Rams on Monday night, but I love them in this spot, provided they have something to play for. They’re coming off a second-consecutive loss, so they’ll be incredibly focused if this game means something. They’re also engaged in a complete mismatch. The Cardinals have so many injuries that they’re not capable of competing with good teams. We saw that last week in an embarrassing blowout loss to the Bengals, who are not nearly as good as the Rams.

I like that we’re getting a discount with the Rams because they’ve lost two consecutive games, when in reality, this will only make them more focused. Again, though, we don’t know if they’ll need this game. If the 49ers win on Saturday night, the Rams will be locked into the No. 6 seed. If the Seahawks win, they can move up to No. 5 with a victory. Now, Sean McVay said that his starters will play regardless, but for how long? If this game means nothing, then we could see Stafford and company for a half, or even a quarter.

I’ll have a definitive pick once the Saturday night result is known. If the Seahawks win, I’ll have the Rams for a big play. If the 49ers win, I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, we have to wait until Saturday night to know what we’re doing. If the 49ers win, we may just bet the Rams in the first half rather than the entire game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Once again, we’ll have to wait until Saturday night’s results. If we are going to bet the Rams, I would like Alaric Jackson to be active. He’s questionable after being limited all week. Rob Havenstein and Kevin Dotson are out, so I don’t want to bet heavily on a team missing three offensive linemen.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This was the game involving a Los Angeles team that I needed to lock in. This spread has risen to -14.5 in some places, so I’m going to lock in -14 right now for three units. The best line is -14 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Looks like we didn’t need to lock in this pick, although the sharps bet the Rams at every number below -14. The best line is -14 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

Depends on Seahawks-49ers

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -15.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Rams -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 76% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 15 of the last 19 meetings.

Jonathan Gannon is 1-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Jonathan Gannon is 1-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Rams -14.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.