2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Dolphins at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

Video of the Week: Mega Man 2 is one of the best video games of all time. Here’s a video where each of the robot masters battles each other:

Poor Flash Man. He didn’t even get a hit in during some of the matchups!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: What we saw from Drake Maye and the Patriots last week was incredible. Sure, they were battling the Jets, but still. Maye completed 90 percent of his passes and threw five touchdowns in just two-and-a-half quarters of action. Had Maye remained in the game, and the Patriots kept their foot on the gas, they would have scored 70 on the Jets with ease.

Maye will continue where he left off against the Dolphins, who struggle to stop the pass. Two weeks ago, Miami surrendered 45 points to the Bengals, so we should see that same sort of an impressive performance against Maye, who will have all the time he needs in the pocket because the Dolphins don’t generate a pass rush.

One area where the Patriots won’t excel is via the rushing attack. While the Dolphins can’t stop the pass at all, they’re still in the top 10 versus the run, so neither Rhamondre Stevenson nor TreVeyon Henderson figure to do much.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If Tua Tagovailoa were still quarterbacking the Dolphins, I’d be obligated to mention the weather. Tagovailoa can’t win in the cold, and it’s projected to be in the 20s come Sunday. Weather is impossible to predict, but that sounds about right for a January game in Foxborough.

We know Tagovailoa sucks in the cold, but what about Quinn Ewers? The rookie quarterback was born in San Antonio and made every college football start for the Texas Longhorns. And in two games thus far, he has played in Miami. Now, he’ll be playing in 20-degree weather. He already sucked, so he’s going to be even worse.

The Dolphins’ only chance of moving the chains will be via De’Von Achane, of course. The Patriots have allowed some big games to opposing backs, but the Dolphins could end up being well behind, which will remove running as an option.

RECAP: It’s not just the quarterback who struggles with the cold. The entire Dolphins team has a history of performing poorly in frigid weather. Given that Miami is coming off a win, I don’t see why it would have any interest in playing this miserable game. All of the players will be dreaming about their impending vacations in tropical climates as they decide to whiff on tackles in their final game of their failed season.

While Miami’s effort level will be very low, the Patriots will be extremely efficient once again. They know that they’re not guaranteed the No. 1 seed, but they can at least get some rest if they do what they did to the Jets last week and put up enough points to get everyone rested by the fourth quarter. Given that the Dolphins won’t want to be here, the Patriots will almost certainly be able to make that happen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Dolphins have a bunch of key players on the injury report. I really don’t see them going all out in this game, given the frigid conditions in New England. The most recent weather reports says 27 degrees.

SATURDAY NOTES: If the Dolphins didn’t have enough problems, they’re going to be down most of their play-makers. Darren Waller is out. De’Von Achane is doubtful. Jaylen Waddle is questionable. Is it Theo Wease Jr. time!? The Patriots should be able to win this game easily.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Dolphins apparently won’t be suiting up Jaylen Waddle. This is not a certainty, but if Waddle is declared inactive, this line will probably go to -14. So, we’ll be locking in New England at -13 -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Will Campbell and Milton Williams are back for the Patriots, while Jaylen Waddle will sit. The sharps have been betting New England all week. The best line is -13.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

Will the Dolphins want to play a game in the 20s, especially after a win?

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Patriots -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Big lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 68% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Dolphins have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Patriots are 45-29 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 16-6 ATS in the final week of the season since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 29 degrees. Light wind.